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Paying ransoms to recover hostages endangers a larger population because it funds terrorist organizations’ operations. To achieve counterterrorism strategy objectives, it is crucial that states consistently adhere to the international ban on ransom payments. Analyzing the factors that influence democracies' decisions to pay or not pay ransoms provides a better understanding of the political peculiarities that shape a state's ransom payment policy over time and influence its decision-making during a hostage-taking crisis. This thesis examined twenty abduction cases involving nationals of four Western democracies (France, Spain, the United States, and the United Kingdom) that occurred between 2001 and 2015. This thesis’ findings demonstrate that public opinion and media perception of ransom payments are the most compelling factors influencing decision-makers. Also, policy legacies of paying or rejecting ransoms affected the political leaders of these four Western democracies. In addition to better preventing kidnappings, states should enact ransom payment bans through domestic laws and policy directives, which would likely constrain decision-making and alleviate public pressure. Moreover, educating the public and media about the greater risk created by ransom payments and the publicity given to kidnappings will help shape public opinion in favor of a ransom payment ban., Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant Colonel, Algerian Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Various social media platforms have been used as tools by social movements and have propelled democratic ideals. Social media has also been used by autocratic leaders to control and repress populations. Both uses of social media have played a prominent role in Venezuela’s political discourse since 2000. However, while it is clear that social media has played a salient role in Venezuela’s politics, what remains unclear is how effective these platforms are at empowering the social movement sector versus helping authoritarian regimes. The case of Venezuela offers insights useful in this debate because it was one of the first countries in South America to experience democratic backsliding during the digital age. Therefore, this thesis originally sought to answer the following questions: How does social media help the Venezuelan authoritarian regime? How does social media help the social movement sector in Venezuela? How can we measure the impact of these tactics? Does social media help the regime or the social movement sector more? Because of the limited data available in secondary research, it is not possible to directly measure effectiveness. Nevertheless, the analysis did reveal that the regime’s and opposition’s use of social media in Venezuela has augmented their traditional strategies. Understanding which faction it helps more overall will require access to social media databases., Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

As competition between the U.S. and China intensifies, the U.S. Navy must plan and implement its overseas operations and diplomatic activities to advance U.S. influence. The main purpose of this study is to assess how the USN can leverage its operations and activities to reinforce U.S. economic programs and enhance U.S. influence. Building on an innovative influence framework developed by two of the investigators, it will systematically assess how USN activities and operations such as joint exercises, port calls, humanitarian assistance and disaster response, and training programs, generate influence in three important U.S. partner nations with significant Chinese investment and/or security presence: Chile, Senegal, and the United Arab Emirates. The project will also identify specific ways that USN activities can reinforce USG economic programs and build effective partnerships, specifying the most productive activity groupings, effective sequencing arrangements, and potential obstacles to interagency coordination. The project will produce a final report, as well as briefings to the sponsor and other interested audiences in the Navy. The report will consist of three country case studies and a comparative analysis of their findings. The precise organization and format of the deliverables will be designed to suit the needs of the topic sponsor. Interim reports will be provided to keep the sponsor apprised of our progress and to solicit feedback during the course of study.

Reissued 25 Apr 2022 with text correction to page 41., Since the inception of the U.S. War on Drugs in the 1970s, the United States has faced the challenge of balancing the interests of justice and diplomacy when dealing with Latin American government officials corrupted by the illicit drug trade. This thesis identifies, categorizes, and assesses examples of U.S. responses to this challenge into a range of options that the United States can take to pursue prosecution against wanted Latin American officials. These options, which range from the least forceful option of foreign prosecution to the most forceful option of using military intervention, each contain different tradeoffs between the reward of prosecuting a high-level actor and the risk of damaging bilateral cooperation. This thesis finds that the United States commonly conducts and should continue to conduct “arrests of opportunity,” which refers to when U.S. law enforcement officials arrest wanted Latin American officials after they enter a U.S. jurisdiction, because it balances legal pragmatism with respecting foreign sovereignty. Additionally, the United States also has an option to “turn a blind eye,” or take no prosecutorial option at all, but this option is a decision best made behind closed doors with serious consideration given to potential political consequences., Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The 2016 peace accords between the Colombian state and the FARC created great expectations of peace across the region. However, four years later, Colombia is experiencing a growing wave of violence from numerous actors, including former FARC dissidents. What drove the emergence of splinter groups after the 2016 peace accords? This thesis argues that insurgents’ levels of cohesiveness and ideological commitment during negotiations significantly condition the long-term prospects for successful accord implementation. When insurgencies enter these processes with low levels of these two factors, peace accords tend to transform, rather than end, the conflict. The thesis examines this argument through an analysis of the FARC’s organizational and ideological properties throughout history and finds that while the FARC had traditionally been a cohesive organization, during the 2000s the COIN strategy and Plan Colombia weakened its organizational structure. Furthermore, its incorporation in the drug trade contributed to the dilution of its ideological commitment. When accords were signed, the FARC lacked the necessary levels of cohesiveness and commitment to implement and enforce the accords in their ranks, causing the emergence of splinter groups. This thesis recommends that in an eventual negotiation with insurgencies, governments must give careful consideration to both the organizational and ideological properties of such organizations to avoid splintering and recurrence of violence., http://archive.org/details/howhasthecolombi1094566733, Lieutenant Colonel, National Army of Colombia, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

This thesis examines the port visits of two U.S. naval deployments to Latin America (USS AMERICA [LHA 6] in 2014 and the USS GUNSTON HALL [LSD 44] in 2018) to find what strategic effects the United States is achieving through this aspect of naval diplomacy. Using an original framework, the study compares primary Latin American news sources to U.S. press releases that cover the visits to identify influence and relates those findings to bilateral relationships, theater objectives, and routine operational activities. Overall, the United States is attaining positive diplomatic influence through the use of port calls; however, there is room for improvement and the Navy’s approach can be optimized to better achieve effects in support of strategic regional objectives. Particularly, matching U.S. actions and events in-port to overall U.S. security policies and enlisting the support of the relevant U.S. embassies can increase the opportunities and likelihood of success in acquiring influence. Attaining U.S. soft power through naval diplomacy in Latin America will only continue to grow in importance with the return to great power competition and the need to counter the encroachment of Chinese influence throughout the region., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Globally, only 23 countries recognize women as indispensable support in combat positions. American and Norwegian women are effectively utilized in Female Engagement Teams, and Israeli women are known to enhance combat effectiveness in infantry units. Nevertheless, gender gaps in equality still remain, particularly in Latin American militaries. In this thesis, Norway, Israel, and the United States illustrate the differing approaches and successes of female integration into combat positions. It seeks to identify what measures could be applied to Latin American militaries desiring added diversity. Evidence indicates that distinct cultural norms have either effectively assisted or impeded the advancement of women’s employment into combat specialties. In Norway and Israel, the inclusion of women in the armed forces was dependent on affirmative legislative action toward gender equality. The United States demonstrated a lack of leadership support that hindered women’s integration. In all cases, cultural norms featuring hegemonic masculinities impeded female participation in primary combat positions. Women in Latin America—a region with a similar cultural misogyny—will likely face the same types of obstacles to service in combat roles. By emulating Norway’s framework, Latin American states would have the ability to force cultural change that potentially closes gender gaps and empowers the region’s governments to improve the conditions of women wishing to serve in combat specialties., Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The CIA's initial regime change operations between 1953 to 1961 were marred by intelligence leaks and lacked critical mission assessments. In addition, perceptions held by top-level decision makers were so distorted that unsupported claims of communist infiltration were made in order to support the decision to proceed with an operation. Three operations were conducted in the span of eight years with nearly indistinguishable similarity, and the third operation resulted in failure. It was only after that failure that investigations revealed the extent of the problem. After examining these three cases, this thesis concludes that the accrual of misperceptions with regard to intelligence and unexamined mission tactics led to the failure at the Bay of Pigs., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance, also known as the Rio Treaty, is one of the Organization of American States’ (OAS) founding agreements. The treaty includes language that provides for collective hemispheric defense, and it has been invoked on multiple occasions. However, Rio Treaty invocations have consistently struggled to generate salient multilateral security cooperation. This thesis hypothesizes, and finds, that the Rio Treaty has been unsuccessful at producing meaningful security cooperation because of repeated misuse by its signatories. To prove the hypothesis, this thesis examines OAS involvement in two regional crises, the 1965 Dominican Civil War and the Falklands/Malvinas War, in search of common themes. In both cases, a treaty signatory executed a fait accompli and then turned to the OAS in need of international legitimacy rather than strategic need. During the Dominican Civil War, the Rio Treaty was not invoked when it likely should have been. As a result, the Inter-American Peace Force (IAPF), which the OAS dispatched in response to the crisis, would remain forever unformalized. Argentina misused the Rio Treaty by invoking it after it had to face the military consequences of a conflict that it instigated with Great Britain. The vastly different OAS response to each case can be explained by vested U.S. interest in each conflict., http://archive.org/details/tepidpartnersthe1094567158, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Various social media platforms have been used as tools by social movements and have propelled democratic ideals. Social media has also been used by autocratic leaders to control and repress populations. Both uses of social media have played a prominent role in Venezuela’s political discourse since 2000. However, while it is clear that social media has played a salient role in Venezuela’s politics, what remains unclear is how effective these platforms are at empowering the social movement sector versus helping authoritarian regimes. The case of Venezuela offers insights useful in this debate because it was one of the first countries in South America to experience democratic backsliding during the digital age. Therefore, this thesis originally sought to answer the following questions: How does social media help the Venezuelan authoritarian regime? How does social media help the social movement sector in Venezuela? How can we measure the impact of these tactics? Does social media help the regime or the social movement sector more? Because of the limited data available in secondary research, it is not possible to directly measure effectiveness. Nevertheless, the analysis did reveal that the regime’s and opposition’s use of social media in Venezuela has augmented their traditional strategies. Understanding which faction it helps more overall will require access to social media databases.

Since the inception of the U.S. War on Drugs in the 1970s, the United States has faced the challenge of balancing the interests of justice and diplomacy when dealing with Latin American government officials corrupted by the illicit drug trade. This thesis identifies, categorizes, and assesses examples of U.S. responses to this challenge into a range of options that the United States can take to pursue prosecution against wanted Latin American officials. These options, which range from the least forceful option of foreign prosecution to the most forceful option of using military intervention, each contain different tradeoffs between the reward of prosecuting a high-level actor and the risk of damaging bilateral cooperation. This thesis finds that the United States commonly conducts and should continue to conduct “arrests of opportunity,” which refers to when U.S. law enforcement officials arrest wanted Latin American officials after they enter a U.S. jurisdiction, because it balances legal pragmatism with respecting foreign sovereignty. Additionally, the United States also has an option to “turn a blind eye,” or take no prosecutorial option at all, but this option is a decision best made behind closed doors with serious consideration given to potential political consequences.

How should political scientists navigate the ethical and methodological quandaries associated with analyzing leaked classified documents and other nonconsensually acquired sources? Massive unauthorized disclosures may excite qualitative scholars with policy revelations and quantitative researchers with big-data suitability, but they are fraught with dilemmas that the discipline has yet to resolve. This paper critiques underspecified research designs and opaque references in the proliferation of scholarship with leaked materials, as well as incomplete and inconsistent guidance from leading journals. It identifies provenance as the primary concept for improved standards and reviews other disciplines' approaches to this problem. It elaborates eight normative and evidentiary criteria for scholars by which to assess source legitimacy and four recommendations for balancing their trade-offs. Fundamentally, it contends that scholars need deeper reflection on source provenance and its consequences, more humility about whether to access new materials and what inferences to draw, and more transparency in citation and research strategies.

The European Union was established in order to create a more peaceful European continent through economic and social integration. To date, the EU has been successful; however, new challenges have begun to emerge. In particular, have the EU’s economic policies and German immigration procedures influenced the rise of populism in Germany, as represented by the populist group Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)? This question is answered by evaluating EU economic performance and mobility factors, as well as recent immigration trends in relation to the AfD’s formation and growing popularity. Furthermore, it appears that economic shortcomings and a declining workforce have created a demand for labor in Germany that has not been met by internal EU factors. As a result, over the past several years the German government has attempted to source its labor demand from outside the EU, namely through immigration from the Middle East and North Africa. However, many of the economic advantages often associated with immigration have yet to materialize. Over this same period, the AfD has experienced a significant increase of support within Germany. What is more, analysis indicates that the AfD’s recent success is potentially related to challenges associated with EU economic performance and immigration. Although the AfD’s recent success is troubling, the party likely does not pose near-term threat to the EU, unless the EU or global economy experiences another severe economic downturn., http://archive.org/details/theeconomicsofdi1094564856, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis explores specific conditions that may indicate a change in military-security relations between Brazil and the United States. Those conditions include Brazil's economic growth, both countries' leadership decisions on foreign policy, and Brazil's involvement in international security institutions. While one condition alone may not lead toward a definitive sign indicating future change of military-security relations, a great deal of these conditions collectively appear to show a framework of how to best forecast a potential change in military-security relations. Using these conditions, as researched between the United States and Brazil, as an initial focus with other emerging countries will enable policymakers to perhaps have a more effective way to develop greater military-security relations in order to facilitate greater cohesion and efforts to achieve global security.

This thesis seeks to determine the cause of the different economic outcomes in Ecuador and Bolivia after the drop in hydrocarbon prices in 2014. Why was Bolivia, under the administration of Evo Morales, seemingly able to escape the resource curse in recent years, while under Correa, Ecuador’s economy collapsed when confronted with a bust in commodity prices? Using five characteristics of the resource curse from existing literature, this thesis examines the policies of Correa and Morales to determine whether the leaders avoided the pitfalls of resource wealth while attempting to achieve sustained socioeconomic growth in their respective countries. This thesis hypothesizes that the Correa administration’s heavy use of Chinese loans exacerbated the resource curse in Ecuador, while the Morales administration executed conservative macroeconomic policies to partially mitigate the resource curse in Bolivia.

For the last 30 years, the Department of Defense (DoD) has been asked in various ways to measure the effectiveness of the DoD counterdrug mission. In this thesis, I advance the idea of using the drug purity data as the best and only stand-alone metric to determine if drug interdiction efforts are reducing the amount of illicit drugs available in the United States. I also present a cost-benefit equation the DoD can utilize to determine the cost effectiveness of the counterdrug mission. The intangible benefits and unintended consequences of the DoD counterdrug mission are relayed and include developing partner nation relations and building partner capacity, positive and negative impacts on military readiness, and promoting the incorrect idea that the military can and should be used to solve any national problem. I conclude that the DoD cannot measure the outcomes of the counterdrug mission; however, it can combine counterdrug mission data already collected with key performance indicators inside of a pattern and trend methodology to better correlate the DoD counterdrug mission and supply-side outcome goals., http://archive.org/details/departmentofdefe1094564072, Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Operating under the assumption that proportional representation (PR) systems strengthen rather than undermine democracies, scholars have largely ignored the question of how this particular system interacts with presidentialism to shape stability outcomes. This thesis challenges that understanding. It argues that presidentialism, in interaction with PR for legislative elections, reduces coalition-formation incentives and makes inter-branch conflict in Latin American democracies more likely. Through a cross-regional comparative analysis and case studies on the Chilean and Venezuelan democratic experiences, this thesis shows that presidential systems experience higher levels of conflict when not subject to the systematic coalition incentives regularly produced by parliamentary or plurality-presidential systems. It also indicates that institutional factors can shape governing coalitions, independent of traditional political divides. Without electoral incentives to coalesce policy visions before elections or institutional mechanisms to ensure the formation of a majority coalition after the election, PR-presidential systems often create a multiparty result that is especially prone to inter-branch conflict and political crisis., Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

This thesis approaches the study of identity politics in Latin America through the two cases of Guatemala and Bolivia. Both countries have similar histories of racism, indigenous demographic majorities, indigenous mobilization, democratization moments, and institutions, and yet the 1999 Guatemalan referendum failed where the 2009 Bolivian referendum succeeded at delivering indigenous rights. Why? This thesis seeks to understand Latin America's indigenous movements and identity politics with implications for conflict resolution or management, combating inequality, and expanding notions of democratic governance. The leading explanations for indigenous movements and politics in Latin America tend to revolve around institutions, social movements, and party systems. However, by examining national histories, contemporary news sources, relevant scholarship, and original materials from relevant political actors, this study proposes another explanation. It stipulates that the success of an indigenous movement in constitutionalizing its demands rests upon the unification of the movement, its programmatic appeal, and its ability to form coalitions with meaningful political allies, thus explaining the disparities in the Guatemalan and Bolivian movements. The Pan-Mayan movement did not meet the preponderance of criteria whereas Bolivia’s indigenous movement did, highlighting the importance of unity and broad appeal in diversifying the region’s politics., Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Over the last decade there has been significant focus, particularly in national security circles, on the rise of China and its expansion in regions such as Latin America, Africa, and Asia. While it is relatively easy to identify literature examining China's rationale for expanding into Latin America, there is notably less that focuses on the reasons why Latin American countries let China in. This thesis seeks to understand why Latin American countries choose to economically cooperate with China through the form of accepting loans. By centering the agency of the countries receiving loans, this thesis identifies the economic and political decisions and institutions that have made Latin American countries potential partners for an emerging China. Overall, pre-existing commodity-based economic relationships and the presence of a centrist or left-wing government were the two factors most linked with accepting loans from China.

The 2016 peace accords between the Colombian state and the FARC created great expectations of peace across the region. However, four years later, Colombia is experiencing a growing wave of violence from numerous actors, including former FARC dissidents. What drove the emergence of splinter groups after the 2016 peace accords? This thesis argues that insurgents’ levels of cohesiveness and ideological commitment during negotiations significantly condition the long-term prospects for successful accord implementation. When insurgencies enter these processes with low levels of these two factors, peace accords tend to transform, rather than end, the conflict. The thesis examines this argument through an analysis of the FARC’s organizational and ideological properties throughout history and finds that while the FARC had traditionally been a cohesive organization, during the 2000s the COIN strategy and Plan Colombia weakened its organizational structure. Furthermore, its incorporation in the drug trade contributed to the dilution of its ideological commitment. When accords were signed, the FARC lacked the necessary levels of cohesiveness and commitment to implement and enforce the accords in their ranks, causing the emergence of splinter groups. This thesis recommends that in an eventual negotiation with insurgencies, governments must give careful consideration to both the organizational and ideological properties of such organizations to avoid splintering and recurrence of violence.

Military innovation studies have largely relied on monocausal accounts—rationalism, institutionalism, or culture—to explain technologically innovative and adaptive outcomes in defense organizations. None of these perspectives alone provided a compelling explanation for the adoption outcomes of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the U.S. military from 1991 to 2015. Two questions motivated this research: Why, despite abundant material resources, mature technology, and operational need, are the most-capable UAVs not in the inventory across the services? What accounts for variations and patterns in UAV innovation adoption? The study selected ten UAV program episodes from the Air Force and Navy, categorized as high-, medium-, and low-end cases, for within-case and cross-case analysis. Primary and secondary sources, plus interviews, enabled process tracing across episodes. The results showed a pattern of adoption or rejection based on a logic-of-utility effectiveness and consistent resource availability: a military problem to solve, and a capability gap in threats or tasks and consistent monetary capacity; furthermore, ideational factors strengthened or weakened adoption. In conclusion, the study undermines single-perspective arguments as sole determinants of innovation, reveals that military culture is not monolithic in determining outcomes, and demonstrates that civil-military relationships no longer operate where civilian leaders hold inordinate sway over military institutions.

Within the last decade, Russia and China have greatly expanded their presence in Latin America—often in ways deemed threatening to U.S. national interests. Partly echoing the first half of the Cold War, the U.S. aims to maintain influence in the region while these states seek to counter any advances. At the same time, the current administration has proposed major cuts to the foreign aid budget. Many experts worry that large cuts could diminish U.S. influence and harm bilateral partnerships. Accordingly, the two case studies contained in this thesis assessed the impact of U.S. bilateral aid on influence in LATAM during the 1950s and 1960s. They both relied on primary U.S. sources (e.g., embassy reporting, congressional hearings, and now-declassified documents), as well as LATAM officials' statements. The research found that bilateral U.S. aid is an effective means to gain influence in the region when it (1) meets needs of recipients, (2) is cooperative and encourages interaction between U.S. personnel and Latin Americans, (3) is somewhat altruistic, and (4) respects recipients' autonomy. Conversely, aid damages influence when these conditions are reversed. Other tools of U.S. foreign policy, as well as many other factors, also contributed to shifts in influence. These are briefly addressed in each chapter to highlight the complexity and fleeting nature of U.S. influence overall., http://archive.org/details/aidandinfluencet1094564900, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Can public diplomacy help resolve protracted international conflicts? Both rationalist and constructivist traditions identify significant domestic obstacles to international peacemaking. However, Robert Putnam’s concept of “reverberation” implies that diplomats can expand their adversaries’ win-sets for cooperation by engaging foreign publics. This paper analyzes a most-likely case, with archival evidence: Argentine Ambassador Oscar Camilión’s unsuccessful quest for Argentine-Brazilian rapprochement in 1976–77. Although the two countries later overcame rivalry, public diplomacy contributed negligibly to this success: internal Argentine divisions created mixed messages toward Brazil, Brazilian leaders launched a competing public relations operation, and these two currents obstructed and nearly terminated Camilión’s mission. This case illuminates the paradoxes of Argentine foreign policymaking under military rule and offers a cautionary tale for scholars and practitioners of public diplomacy and conflict resolution.