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Summary: Background: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is a clinically validated marker of cardiovascular disease risk. We developed and validated a novel cardiovascular risk stratification system based on deep-learning-predicted CAC from retinal photographs. Methods: We used 216 152 retinal photographs from five datasets from South Korea, Singapore, and the UK to train and validate the algorithms. First, using one dataset from a South Korean health-screening centre, we trained a deep-learning algorithm to predict the probability of the presence of CAC (ie, deep-learning retinal CAC score, RetiCAC). We stratified RetiCAC scores into tertiles and used Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate the ability of RetiCAC to predict cardiovascular events based on external test sets from South Korea, Singapore, and the UK Biobank. We evaluated the incremental values of RetiCAC when added to the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) for participants in the UK Biobank. Findings: RetiCAC outperformed all single clinical parameter models in predicting the presence of CAC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0·742, 95% CI 0·732–0·753). Among the 527 participants in the South Korean clinical cohort, 33 (6·3%) had cardiovascular events during the 5-year follow-up. When compared with the current CAC risk stratification (0, >0–100, and >100), the three-strata RetiCAC showed comparable prognostic performance with a concordance index of 0·71. In the Singapore population-based cohort (n=8551), 310 (3·6%) participants had fatal cardiovascular events over 10 years, and the three-strata RetiCAC was significantly associated with increased risk of fatal cardiovascular events (hazard ratio [HR] trend 1·33, 95% CI 1·04–1·71). In the UK Biobank (n=47 679), 337 (0·7%) participants had fatal cardiovascular events over 10 years. When added to the PCE, the three-strata RetiCAC improved cardiovascular risk stratification in the intermediate-risk group (HR trend 1·28, 95% CI 1·07–1·54) and borderline-risk group (1·62, 1·04–2·54), and the continuous net reclassification index was 0·261 (95% CI 0·124–0·364). Interpretation: A deep learning and retinal photograph-derived CAC score is comparable to CT scan-measured CAC in predicting cardiovascular events, and improves on current risk stratification approaches for cardiovascular disease events. These data suggest retinal photograph-based deep learning has the potential to be used as an alternative measure of CAC, especially in low-resource settings. Funding: Yonsei University College of Medicine; Ministry of Health and Welfare, Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology, South Korea; Agency for Science, Technology, and Research; and National Medical Research Council, Singapore.

Purpose: To evaluate the relationships between chronic kidney disease (CKD) with retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) and ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) thickness profiles of eyes in Asian and White populations. Design: Cross-sectional analysis. Participants: A total of 5066 Asian participants (1367 Malays, 1772 Indians, and 1927 Chinese) from the Singapore Epidemiology of Eye Diseases Study (SEED) were included, consisting of 9594 eyes for peripapillary RNFL analysis and 8661 eyes for GCIPL analysis. Additionally, 45 064 White participants (87 649 eyes) from the United Kingdom Biobank (UKBB) were included for both macular RNFL analysis and GCIPL analysis. Methods: Nonglaucoma participants aged ≥ 40 years with complete data for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were included from both SEED and UKBB. In SEED, peripapillary RNFL and GCIPL thickness were measured by Cirrus HD-OCT 4000. In UKBB, macular RNFL and GCIPL were measured by Topcon 3D-OCT 1000 Mark II. Chronic kidney disease was defined as eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 in both data sets. To evaluate the associations between kidney function status with RNFL and GCIPL thickness profiles, multivariable linear regression with generalized estimating equation models were performed in SEED and UKBB data sets separately. Main Outcome Measures: Average peripapillary and macular RNFL thickness and macular GCIPL thickness. Results: In SEED, after adjusting for age, gender, ethnicity, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, body mass index, smoking status, and intraocular pressure, presence of CKD (β = −1.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], −2.37 to −0.26; P = 0.015) and reduced eGFR (per 10 ml/min/1.73 m2; β = −0.32; 95% CI, −0.50 to −0.13; P = 0.001) were associated with thinner average peripapillary RNFL. Presence of CKD (β = −1.63; 95% CI, −2.42 to −0.84) and reduced eGFR (per 10 ml/min/1.73 m2; β = −0.30; 95% CI, −0.44 to −0.16) were consistently associated with thinner GCIPL in SEED (all P < 0.001). In UKBB, after adjusting for the above-mentioned covariates (except ethnicity), reduced eGFR (per 10 ml/min/1.73 m2; β = −0.06; 95% CI, −0.10 to −0.01; P = 0.008) was associated with thinner macular RNFL and CKD (β = −0.62; 95% CI, −1.16 to −0.08; P = 0.024) was associated with thinner average GCIPL. Conclusion: We consistently observed associations between CKD and thinning of RNFL and GCIPL across Asian and White populations' eyes. These findings further suggest that compromised kidney function is associated with RNFL and GCIPL thinning. Financial Disclosure(s): The author(s) have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article.