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Lamba et al. demonstrated the feasibility of explicitly incorporating wild animal conservation into nature-based climate solutions, the multifaceted value of which was recently promoted by Schmitz et al. I synthesize their ideas to highlight some issues critical for large-scale integration of these coupled priorities across social-ecological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlike atmospheric weather forecasting, ocean forecasting is often reflexive; for many applications, the forecast and its dissemination can change the outcome, and is in this way, a part of the system. Reflexivity has implications for several ocean forecasting applications, such as fisheries management, endangered species management, toxic and invasive species management, and community science. The field of ocean system forecasting is experiencing rapid growth, and there is an opportunity to add the reflexivity dynamic to the conventional approach taken from weather forecasting. Social science has grappled with reflexivity for decades and can offer a valuable perspective. Ocean forecasting is often iterative, thus it can also offer opportunities to advance the general understanding of reflexive prediction. In this paper, we present a basic theoretical skeleton for considering iterative reflexivity in an ocean forecasting context. It is possible to explore the reflexive dynamics because the prediction is iterative. The central problem amounts to a tension between providing a reliably accurate forecast and affecting a desired outcome via the forecast. These two objectives are not always compatible. We map a review of the literature onto relevant ecological scales that contextualize the role of reflexivity across a range of applications, from biogeochemical (e.g., hypoxia and harmful algal blooms) to endangered species management. Formulating reflexivity mathematically provides one explicit mechanism for integrating natural and social sciences. In the context of the Anthropocene ocean, reflexivity helps us understand whether forecasts are meant to mitigate and control environmental changes, or to adapt and respond within a changing system. By thinking about reflexivity as part of the foundation of ocean system forecasting, we hope to avoid some of the unintended consequences that can derail forecasting programs.

IntroductionEcological conditions at a given site are driven by factors including resource availability, habitat connectivity, and disturbance history. Land managers can influence disturbance history at a site by harvesting resources, creating transportation pathways, introducing new species, and altering the frequency and severity of events such as fires and floods. As a result, locations with different land management histories have also likely experienced different disturbance trajectories that, over time, are likely to result in different ecological characteristics.MethodsTo understand how the presence of different management histories may shape ecological conditions across large landscapes, we examined plant and soil characteristics at matched sampling points across jurisdictional boundaries within four Protected Area-Centered Ecosystems (PACEs) in the western US. We employed Bayesian modeling to explore 1) the extent to which specific ecological variables are linked to disturbance and jurisdiction both among and within individual PACEs, and 2) whether disturbance evidence differs among jurisdictions within each PACE.ResultsAcross all jurisdictions we found that disturbances were associated with ecologically meaningful shifts in percent cover of bare ground, forbs, grass, shrubs, and trees, as well as in tree species richness, soil stability, and total carbon. However, the magnitude of shifts varied by PACE. Within PACEs, there were also meaningful associations between some ecological variables and jurisdiction type; the most consistent of these were in soil stability and soil carbon:nitrogen ratios. Disturbance evidence within each PACE was relatively similar across jurisdictions, with strong differences detected between contrast jurisdictions only for the Lassen Volcanic National Park PACE (LAVO).DiscussionThese findings suggest an interaction between management history and geography, such that ecotones appear to manifest at jurisdictional boundaries within some, but not all, contexts of disturbance and location. Additionally, we detected numerous differences between PACEs in the size of disturbance effects on ecological variables, suggesting that while the interplay between disturbance and management explored here appears influential, there remains a large amount of unexplained variance in these landscapes. As continued global change elevates the importance of large landscape habitat connectivity, unaligned management activities among neighboring jurisdictions are likely to influence existing ecological conditions and connectivity, conservation planning, and desired outcomes.

Land management decisions have profound impacts on biological communities. Various administrative units are likely to implement different management decisions, with the result that consistent biological patterns that track administrative boundaries may emerge. To assess these relationships, we collected data on land cover, disturbance evidence, and tree communities in randomized sampling sites located in National Park, US Forest Service Wilderness, and US Forest Service Non-wilderness distributed across the Great Smoky Mountains National Park Protected Area-Centered Ecosystem (GRSM PACE). We examined how present-day values for these ecological responses were linked to both biophysical site characteristics (as the foundation for ecological communities) and jurisdiction type (as categories that integrate the combination of dynamic social decisions and management practices since initial designation). The variable representing administrative unit, jurisdiction type, acted as an umbrella indicator of the management trajectory and social influences that have affected a site and emerged as an important predictor of groundcover types (grass and litter), tree diversity, and wildlife sign at sites across the GRSM PACE. This was an exploratory study with limited sample size, so more data are needed to explore the mechanisms driving these relationships. These initial findings, however, suggest that differences in management activities alter the ecological trajectory of sites across the PACE. Given dynamic and diverse management practices, our data suggest jurisdiction overlaid on biophysical site information may be useful to rapidly assess how socially defined landscape activities impact biological responses, particularly when both are stressed by global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem‐based management (EBM) is a holistic way to manage the marine environment, involving partnerships between people and the recognition of ecological complexity. As we progress towards EBM, risk assessments must move beyond an evaluation of the direct impacts of a single stressor on a species or habitat. Here, we propose 12 risk assessment criteria that explicitly reflect the principles of EBM. These criteria include the need to assess risk to multiple ecosystem components and values, evaluate place and time‐specific ecological complexity, evaluate recovery, accommodate different knowledge types and communicate uncertainty. Contemporary risk assessment approaches rarely meet all 12 criteria and whilst many approaches could be adapted to do so, some are more easily modified than others. Risk assessment approaches that meet our criteria have the greatest potential to support decision‐making in an EBM context and thereby safeguard our marine environments and their values for future generations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research Highlights: Forest pest outbreaks that cross jurisdictional boundaries pose particular challenges, since both ecological and social factors influence the effectiveness of management responses. This study found that difficulties emerge from the misalignment of management objectives and policies that deter collaboration. The sharing of resources and collaborative responses to outbreaks may improve management outcomes. Background and Objectives: This study examines if and how boundaries influence the effectiveness of forest pest management within the protected area-centered ecosystems of Rocky Mountain National Park and Grand Canyon National Park, USA. Materials and Methods: Using semi-structured interviews and a survey distributed to forest managers, we explored how partitioning affects pest management effectiveness and identified barriers to and strategies for managing outbreaks that cross boundaries. Results: Cross-boundary outbreaks are uniquely challenging due to federally mandated policies, agency mission misalignment, a lack of formal collaboration, and a lack of public support for timber management programs. Strategies that may improve outcomes include reevaluating problematic policies; ensuring messaging is consistent across agencies; and developing a preventative cross-boundary forest insect outbreak management team. Conclusions: Measures to increase collaboration in multi-jurisdictional landscapes will help managers prepare for future forest pest outbreaks, which are expected to increase in frequency with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Ecosystem‐based management (EBM) is a holistic way to manage the marine environment, involving partnerships between people and the recognition of ecological complexity. As we progress towards EBM, risk assessments must move beyond an evaluation of the direct impacts of a single stressor on a species or habitat. Here, we propose 12 risk assessment criteria that explicitly reflect the principles of EBM. These criteria include the need to assess risk to multiple ecosystem components and values, evaluate place and time‐specific ecological complexity, evaluate recovery, accommodate different knowledge types and communicate uncertainty. Contemporary risk assessment approaches rarely meet all 12 criteria and whilst many approaches could be adapted to do so, some are more easily modified than others. Risk assessment approaches that meet our criteria have the greatest potential to support decision‐making in an EBM context and thereby safeguard our marine environments and their values for future generations.

Unlike atmospheric weather forecasting, ocean forecasting is often reflexive; for many applications, the forecast and its dissemination can change the outcome, and is in this way, a part of the system. Reflexivity has implications for several ocean forecasting applications, such as fisheries management, endangered species management, toxic and invasive species management, and community science. The field of ocean system forecasting is experiencing rapid growth, and there is an opportunity to add the reflexivity dynamic to the conventional approach taken from weather forecasting. Social science has grappled with reflexivity for decades and can offer a valuable perspective. Ocean forecasting is often iterative, thus it can also offer opportunities to advance the general understanding of reflexive prediction. In this paper, we present a basic theoretical skeleton for considering iterative reflexivity in an ocean forecasting context. It is possible to explore the reflexive dynamics because the prediction is iterative. The central problem amounts to a tension between providing a reliably accurate forecast and affecting a desired outcome via the forecast. These two objectives are not always compatible. We map a review of the literature onto relevant ecological scales that contextualize the role of reflexivity across a range of applications, from biogeochemical (e.g., hypoxia and harmful algal blooms) to endangered species management. Formulating reflexivity mathematically provides one explicit mechanism for integrating natural and social sciences. In the context of the Anthropocene ocean, reflexivity helps us understand whether forecasts are meant to mitigate and control environmental changes, or to adapt and respond within a changing system. By thinking about reflexivity as part of the foundation of ocean system forecasting, we hope to avoid some of the unintended consequences that can derail forecasting programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resilience quantifies the ability of a system to remain in or return to its current state following disturbance. Due to inconsistent terminology and usage of resilience frameworks, quantitative resilience studies are challenging, and resilience is often treated as an abstract concept rather than a measurable system characteristic. We used a novel, spatially explicit stakeholder engagement process to quantify social‐ecological resilience to fire, in light of modeled social‐ecological fire risk, across the non‐fire‐adapted Sonoran Desert Ecosystem in Arizona, USA. Depending on its severity and the characteristics of the ecosystem, fire as a disturbance has the potential to drive ecological state change. As a result, fire regime change is of increasing concern as global change and management legacies alter the distribution and flammability of fuels. Because management and use decisions impact resources and ecological processes, social and ecological factors must be evaluated together to predict resilience to fire. We found highest fire risk in the central and eastern portions of the study area, where flammable fuels occur with greater density and frequency and managers reported fewer management resources than in other locations. We found lowest fire resilience in the southeastern portion of the study area, where combined ecological and social factors, including abundant fuels, few management resources, and little evidence of past institutional adaptability, indicated that sites were least likely to retain their current characteristics and permit achievement of current management objectives. Analyzing ecological and social characteristics together permits regional managers to predict the effects of changing fire regimes across large, multi‐jurisdictional landscapes and to consider where to direct resources. This study brought social and ecological factors together into a common spatial framework to produce vulnerability maps; our methods may inform researchers and managers in other systems facing novel disturbance and spatially variable resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efforts to monitor and conserve populations and ecosystems in human‐dominated landscapes can benefit from an empirical social–ecological systems approach.Here we illustrate how latent variable structural equation modelling of regional time series data can effectively describe interconnected drivers of population fluctuations in dynamic landscapes and can help to reveal previously unknown system drivers.Using a declining farmland‐dependent bird species (Ammodramus savannarum) in the eastern United States (1994–2015) as a case study, our analysis reveals how farm management decisions drive population fluctuations (R2 = 20%), while management is in turn highly influenced by climate (R2 = 23%–51%), but not by regional conservation spending.Synthesis and applications. Structural equation modelling revealed potential social–ecological pathways for halting regional population declines in a grassland bird, the Grasshopper Sparrow. Lower population growth rates followed years of higher hay yields (~4 percentage points per metric ton increase in hay yield) and later harvests (~2 percentage points per 10‐day delay in harvest). Thus, one pathway for stabilising regional populations could involve compensating farmers for reducing hay harvests, potentially requiring a six‐fold increase in current annual agri‐environmental conservation spending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal areas serve as a vital interface between the land and sea or ocean and host about 40% of the world’s population, providing significant social, economic, and ecological functions. Meanwhile, the sea-level rise caused by climate change, along with coastal erosion and accretion, alters coastal landscapes profoundly, threatening coastal sustainability. For instance, the Mississippi River Delta in Louisiana is one of the most vulnerable coastal areas. It faces severe long-term land loss that has disrupted the regional ecosystem balance during the past few decades. There is an urgent need to understand the land loss mechanism in coastal Louisiana and identify areas prone to land loss in the future. This study modeled the current and predicted the future land loss and identified natural–human variables in the Louisiana Coastal Zone (LCZ) using remote sensing and machine-learning approaches. First, we analyzed the temporal and spatial land loss patterns from 2001 to 2016 in the study area. Second, logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and random forest models with 15 human and natural variables were carried out during each five-year and the fifteen-year period to delineate the short- and long-term land loss mechanisms. Finally, we simulated the land-loss probability in 2031 using the optimal model. The results indicate that land loss patterns in different parts change through time at an overall decelerating speed. The oil and gas well density and subsidence rate were the most significant land loss drivers during 2001–2016. The simulation shows that a total area of 180 km2 of land has over a 50% probability of turning to water from 2016 to 2031. This research offers valuable information for decision-makers and local communities to prepare for future land cover changes, reduce potential risks, and efficiently manage the land restoration in coastal Louisiana.

Research Highlights: Forest pest outbreaks that cross jurisdictional boundaries pose particular challenges, since both ecological and social factors influence the effectiveness of management responses. This study found that difficulties emerge from the misalignment of management objectives and policies that deter collaboration. The sharing of resources and collaborative responses to outbreaks may improve management outcomes. Background and Objectives: This study examines if and how boundaries influence the effectiveness of forest pest management within the protected area-centered ecosystems of Rocky Mountain National Park and Grand Canyon National Park, USA. Materials and Methods: Using semi-structured interviews and a survey distributed to forest managers, we explored how partitioning affects pest management effectiveness and identified barriers to and strategies for managing outbreaks that cross boundaries. Results: Cross-boundary outbreaks are uniquely challenging due to federally mandated policies, agency mission misalignment, a lack of formal collaboration, and a lack of public support for timber management programs. Strategies that may improve outcomes include reevaluating problematic policies; ensuring messaging is consistent across agencies; and developing a preventative cross-boundary forest insect outbreak management team. Conclusions: Measures to increase collaboration in multi-jurisdictional landscapes will help managers prepare for future forest pest outbreaks, which are expected to increase in frequency with climate change.

We investigated the relative role of manager traits and decisions for explaining the impact of riparian restoration. To do this, we used the difference in vegetation between post-restoration and controls for 243 pairs of sites to create a success index. We then determined how much variability in success could be explained by physical variables that directly impact vegetation (environment and weed removal) versus human variables (characteristics of the people who managed those sites and their management decisions). More than 60% of the variability in vegetation change could be explained, with human variables increasing adjusted R-square values of physical-only models by an average of 47%. Restoration "success" was positively associated with an increase in the number of collaborators, the number of information sources used, and the relative priority of plant-related goals. Worse outcomes were associated with an increase in the number of roles the manager held, monitoring frequency, and with higher manager education level. These results point to the indirect impacts of the human element, and specifically supports recommendations to include multiple partners and set specific goals. To our knowledge, this is the first time the importance of human characteristics as drivers of restoration outcomes has been quantified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountain social-ecological systems (MtSES) provide crucial ecosystem services to over half of humanity. However, populations living in these highly varied regions are now confronted by global change. It is critical that they are able to anticipate change to strategically manage resources and avoid potential conflict. Yet, planning for sustainable, equitable transitions for the future is a daunting task, considering the range of uncertainties and the unique character of MtSES. Participatory scenario planning (PSP) can help MtSES communities by critically reflecting on a wider array of innovative pathways for adaptive transformation. Although the design of effective approaches has been widely discussed, how PSP has been employed in MtSES has yet to be examined. Here, we present the first systematic global review of single- and multiscalar, multisectoral PSP undertaken in MtSES, in which we characterize the process, identify strengths and gaps, and suggest effective ways to apply PSP in MtSES. We used a nine-step process to help guide the analysis of 42 studies from 1989 screened articles. Our results indicate a steady increase in relevant studies since 2006, with 43% published between 2015 and 2017. These studies encompass 39 countries, with over 50% in Europe. PSP in MtSES is used predominantly to build cooperation, social learning, collaboration, and decision support, yet meeting these objectives is hindered by insufficient engagement with intended end users. MtSES PSP has focused largely on envisioning themes of governance, economy, land use change, and biodiversity, but has overlooked themes such as gender equality, public health, and sanitation. There are many avenues to expand and improve PSP in MtSES: to other regions, sectors, across a greater diversity of stakeholders, and with a specific focus on MtSES paradoxes. Communicating uncertainty, monitoring and evaluating impacts, and engendering more comparative approaches can further increase the utility of PSP for addressing MtSES challenges, with lessons for other complex social-ecological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parks and protected areas are complex, and managers often need integrated social–ecological science-based information that illuminates the dynamic interactions between the biophysical and social processes. However, modeling and determining social–ecological connections are difficult due to disciplinary paradigms, divergent research questions, and data sets representing different scales. During this investigation, researchers sought to evaluate social–ecological linkages at a large salt pan (Bonneville Salt Flats) in western Utah (US). Specifically, the investigation evaluated how the changing level and location of salt-crust moisture and ponding water influenced visitors' spatial distribution of use and important elements of their experience. The findings indicate that visitors travel more distance, spend more time recreating, and use the Salt Flats in higher densities during dry conditions. However, the results also highlight that importance levels ascribed to specific aspects of the visitor experience remained relatively stable regardless of changes in salt-crust moisture and ponding water. Illuminating such linkages is important because most natural resource issues in society, including resources at the Bonneville Salt Flats, are not solely ecological or social in nature but characterized by deeper enmeshment between the two. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of small-scale, self-organized social-ecological systems have contributed to our understanding of successful governance of shared resources. However, the lack of formal analytically tractable models of such coupled infrastructure systems makes it difficult to connect this understanding to such concepts as stability, robustness, and resilience, which are increasingly important in considering such systems. In this paper, we mathematically operationalize a widely used conceptual framework via a stylized dynamical model. The model yields a wide range of system outcomes: sustainability or collapse, infrastructure at full or partial capacity, and social agents seeking outside opportunities or exclusively engaging in the system. The low dimensionality of the model enables us to derive these conditions in clear relationships of biophysical and social factors describing the coupled system. Analysis of the model further reveals regime shifts, trade-offs, and potential pitfalls that one may face in governing these selforganized systems. The intuition and insights derived from the model lay ground for more rigorous treatment of robustness and resilience of self-organized coupled infrastructure systems, which can lead to more effective governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Berry-producing plants are a key subsistence resource in Indigenous Alaskan communities. Coastal, high-latitude regions are particularly impacted by global climate change because their location at the land-sea ecotone subjects them to both terrestrial stressors and shifting ocean dynamics. Although changes in near-shore vegetation communities have been previously documented for the sub-Arctic coastal region of Alaska, we know little about vegetation dynamics in the permafrost-underlain portions of the landscape that support berry communities. To fill this gap, surveys were administered in four communities within the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta to identify observations of changes in berry resources and integrate Indigenous Knowledge of drivers of changes with climate projections. We found that while many participants identified changes in berry phenology, abundance, and habitat related to climate drivers, important differences in responses were identified at the community level. Regional consensus can be used in combination with climate projections to forecast potential future impacts to berry resources, while distinctions at the community level can help to account for impacts of local scale disturbances and importance of social context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constructed treatment wetlands intercept nutrients in surface runoff to protect downstream ecosystems. Conventionally, nutrient removal is considered from a chemical kinetics perspective that assumes outlet concentrations tend toward equilibrium. We propose a broader view that includes management intervention as part of the system, and we explore the possibility that complex concentration dynamics emerge endogenously from nonlinear interactions. In particular, through application of a novel nonlinear time series diagnostic framework, we empirically test whether phosphorus removal at two Stormwater Treatment Areas (STAs) in South Florida might be enhanced through improved management of hydraulic and phosphorus loads. We isolated low‐dimensional, deterministic signals in STA input/output dynamics (flows and total phosphorus concentrations); mapped causal interactions among covariates; and developed parsimonious data‐driven dynamic models to simulate and characterize key interactions. At STA‐3/4, inflow dynamics systematically drove outlet concentrations, suggesting that outlet concentration variability might be reduced through enhanced hydraulic load management. We also detected management feedback in the reverse direction—STA‐3/4 outlet concentrations driving inflows—and identified a possible inefficiency in this management response. At STA‐2, neither flows nor inlet concentrations systematically drove outlet concentrations, suggesting that the wetland effectively removed incoming load signals. However, STA‐2 inflows were evidently influenced by inlet concentrations (management feedback). The differing management feedback structures between STAs suggest that STA‐3/4 performance might be improved by managing hydraulic loads more strongly in response to inlet concentrations. More broadly, this work demonstrates that management‐relevant insights into dynamic cause‐and‐effect relationships can be gleaned from observed treatment dynamics. Key Points: Complex outlet concentration dynamics at two Stormwater Treatment Areas show deterministic temporal structureDetected causal interactions among input/output variables suggest opportunities to improve treatment performance via load managementManagement feedback—such as outlet concentrations driving inflows—systematically contributed to nonequilibrium behavior [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exurban development is a prominent land use in the United States of America, particularly in the Midwest, where much of it occurs on farmland and remnant woodlands. While exurbanization may affect ecosystem services, its impact could be modulated by management decisions made by residents. We aimed to uncover how exurban residents in a midwestern county perceived ecosystem services and disservices provided by their property based on 26 semi-structured interviews of landowners on parcels between 1 and 20 acres with a pond in unincorporated areas. We found the ecosystem services people associated most with their land are classified as cultural services (dominated by recreation services), while the most common mentioned disservices were classified as regulating disservices. Many ecosystem services that would be categorized as supporting or regulating services were not mentioned by interviewees, including microclimate stabilization, carbon sequestration, disease regulation, and maintenance of genetic diversity. Residents spent an average of 1.4 h/acre each week managing their properties. However, as parcel size and forest cover increased, the residents reported managing less surface area. Our study suggested that residents cultivate landscape features that directly benefit them and view many of the services that benefit regional biodiversity and ecosystem processes as disservices, which, to rectify, may require coordinated landscape-level management or local policies/incentives.

Mountain social-ecological systems (MtSES) provide crucial ecosystem services to over half of humanity. However, populations living in these highly varied regions are now confronted by global change. It is critical that they are able to anticipate change to strategically manage resources and avoid potential conflict. Yet, planning for sustainable, equitable transitions for the future is a daunting task, considering the range of uncertainties and the unique character of MtSES. Participatory scenario planning (PSP) can help MtSES communities by critically reflecting on a wider array of innovative pathways for adaptive transformation. Although the design of effective approaches has been widely discussed, how PSP has been employed in MtSES has yet to be examined. Here, we present the first systematic global review of single- and multiscalar, multisectoral PSP undertaken in MtSES, in which we characterize the process, identify strengths and gaps, and suggest effective ways to apply PSP in MtSES. We used a nine-step process to help guide the analysis of 42 studies from 1989 screened articles. Our results indicate a steady increase in relevant studies since 2006, with 43% published between 2015 and 2017. These studies encompass 39 countries, with over 50% in Europe. PSP in MtSES is used predominantly to build cooperation, social learning, collaboration, and decision support, yet meeting these objectives is hindered by insufficient engagement with intended end users. MtSES PSP has focused largely on envisioning themes of governance, economy, land use change, and biodiversity, but has overlooked themes such as gender equality, public health, and sanitation. There are many avenues to expand and improve PSP in MtSES: to other regions, sectors, across a greater diversity of stakeholders, and with a specific focus on MtSES paradoxes. Communicating uncertainty, monitoring and evaluating impacts, and engendering more comparative approaches can further increase the utility of PSP for addressing MtSES challenges, with lessons for other complex social-ecological systems.

Risk assessments quantify the probability of undesirable events along with their consequences. They are used to prioritize management interventions and assess tradeoffs, serving as an essential component of ecosystem‐based management (). A central objective of most risk assessments for conservation and management is to characterize uncertainty and impacts associated with one or more pressures of interest. Risk assessments have been used in marine resource management to help evaluate the risk of environmental, ecological, and anthropogenic pressures on species or habitats including for data‐poor fisheries management (e.g., toxicity, probability of extinction, habitat alteration impacts). Traditionally, marine risk assessments focused on singular pressure‐response relationships, but recent advancements have included use of risk assessments in an context, providing a method for evaluating the cumulative impacts of multiple pressures on multiple ecosystem components. Here, we describe a conceptual framework for ecosystem risk assessment (), highlighting its role in operationalizing , with specific attention to ocean management considerations. This framework builds on the ecotoxicological and conservation literature on risk assessment and includes recent advances that focus on risks posed by fishing to marine ecosystems. We review how examples of s from the United States fit into this framework, explore the variety of analytical approaches that have been used to conduct s, and assess the challenges and data gaps that remain. This review discusses future prospects for s as decision‐support tools, their expanded role in integrated ecosystem assessments, and the development of next‐generation risk assessments for coupled natural–human systems.

Natural resources are vulnerable to over-exploitation in the absence of effective management. However, norms, enforced by social ostracism, can promote cooperation and increase stock biomass in common-pool resource systems. Unfortunately, the long-term sustainable use of a resource is not assured even if cooperation, maintained by ostracism and aimed at optimizing resource use, exists. Here, using the example of fisheries, we show that for a cooperative to be maintained by ostracism over time, it often must act inefficiently, choosing a 'second-best' strategy where the resource is over-harvested to some degree. Those cooperatives that aim for maximum sustainable profit, the 'first-best' harvest strategy, are more vulnerable to invasion by independent harvesters, leading to larger declines in the fish population. In contrast, second-best strategies emphasize the resistance to invasion by independent harvesters over maximizing yield or profit. Ultimately, this leads to greater long-run payoffs to the resource users as well as higher resource stock levels. This highlights the value of pragmatism in the design of cooperative institutions for managing natural resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of coffee agroecosystems have focused on their role in providing habitat for biodiversity across a range of management intensities. These studies have not taken into account the temporal and spatial transformations in coffee landscapes and their impacts on structural heterogeneity and biodiversity, nor systematically linked these transformations to farmer management responses to price and policy shocks. We utilize a coupled natural–human system framework to examine the historical transformations of the coffee landscape in a matrix of community-protected forests in a coffee-growing community in Oaxaca, Mexico, and study how those transformations impact tree biodiversity across a range of management options, including formerly certified organic and conventional coffee, abandonment, and conversion. The coffee landscape has historically transitioned from forests and fields (1950s–1960s) to one dominated by coffee (1970s–1980s) to a richly mosaic and biodiverse landscape (1990–2010) resulting from 43% recent abandonment and conversion of coffee back to forest and fields. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Risk assessments quantify the probability of undesirable events along with their consequences. They are used to prioritize management interventions and assess tradeoffs, serving as an essential component of ecosystem-based management (EBM). A central objective of most risk assessments for conservation and management is to characterize uncertainty and impacts associated with one or more pressures of interest. Risk assessments have been used in marine resource management to help evaluate the risk of environmental, ecological, and anthropogenic pressures on species or habitats including for data-poor fisheries management (e.g., toxicity, probability of extinction, habitat alteration impacts). Traditionally, marine risk assessments focused on singular pressure-response relationships, but recent advancements have included use of risk assessments in an EBM context, providing a method for evaluating the cumulative impacts of multiple pressures on multiple ecosystem components. Here, we describe a conceptual framework for ecosystem risk assessment (ERA), highlighting its role in operationalizing EBM, with specific attention to ocean management considerations. This framework builds on the ecotoxicological and conservation literature on risk assessment and includes recent advances that focus on risks posed by fishing to marine ecosystems. We review how examples of ERAs from the United States fit into this framework, explore the variety of analytical approaches that have been used to conduct ERAs, and assess the challenges and data gaps that remain. This review discusses future prospects for ERAs as EBM decision-support tools, their expanded role in integrated ecosystem assessments, and the development of next-generation risk assessments for coupled natural-human systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture-based irrigation communities of northern New Mexico have survived for centuries despite the arid environment in which they reside. These irrigation communities are threatened by regional population growth, urbanization, a changing demographic profile, economic development, climate change, and other factors. Within this context, we investigated the extent to which community resource management practices centering on shared resources (e.g., water for agricultural in the floodplains and grazing resources in the uplands) and mutualism (i.e., shared responsibility of local residents to maintaining traditional irrigation policies and upholding cultural and spiritual observances) embedded within the community structure influence acequia function. We used a system dynamics modeling approach as an interdisciplinary platform to integrate these systems, specifically the relationship between community structure and resource management. In this paper we describe the background and context of acequia communities in northern New Mexico and the challenges they face. We formulate a Dynamic Hypothesis capturing the endogenous feedbacks driving acequia community vitality. Development of the model centered on major stock-and-flow components, including linkages for hydrology, ecology, community, and economics. Calibration metrics were used for model evaluation, including statistical correlation of observed and predicted values and Theil inequality statistics. Results indicated that the model reproduced trends exhibited by the observed system. Sensitivity analyses of socio-cultural processes identified absentee decisions, cumulative income effect on time in agriculture, and land use preference due to time allocation, community demographic effect, effect of employment on participation, and farm size effect as key determinants of system behavior and response. Sensitivity analyses of biophysical parameters revealed that several key parameters (e.g., acres per animal unit or percentage of normal acequia ditch seepage) which created less variable system responses but which utilized similar pathways to that of the socio-cultural processes (e.g., socio-cultural or physical parameter change → agricultural profit → time in spent in agriculture → effect on socio-cultural or physical processes). These processes also linked through acequia mutualism to create the greatest variability in system outputs compared to the remainder of tests. Results also point to the important role of community mutualism in sustaining linkages between natural and human systems that increase resilience to stressors. Future work will explore scenario development and testing, integration with upland and downstream models, and comparative analyses between acequia communities with distinct social and landscape characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disturbance is one of the fundamental shapers of ecological communities, redistributing resources and resetting successional pathways. Human activities including resources management can influence disturbance regimes and trajectories by actively imposing or suppressing disturbance events or shaping ecosystem recovery via disturbance response. Furthermore, different management objectives may drive different disturbance responses. This suggests that the management jurisdiction to which a land parcel is assigned is likely to influence disturbance management and therefore ecological conditions within that parcel. Here, we combined two exploratory approaches to investigate this linkage. First, we used a systematic literature review to develop a typology of reported disturbance response types and strategies by federal land management agencies in the US. Second, we used Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot data in five multi-jurisdictional ecosystems containing national parks to investigate the relationship between land ownership and large disturbance occurrence and between disturbance and tree growth rate. We found that agencies vary in the diversity of disturbance response tactics they are reported to employ, and disturbance types vary in the diversity of responses reported in the literature. Disturbance occurrence varied by land ownership type across the FIA dataset, and the direction of tree growth rate was influenced by the interaction between ownership type and disturbance occurrence in two of five examined ecosystems. Although our mixed methods approach was purely exploratory and not mechanistic, our findings suggest that disturbance response is one possible route by which management regimes may influence ecological conditions. Efforts to understand and predict ecological heterogeneity across large landscapes must consider variation in the social system as a potential contributor to such patterns. • Disturbance varies by land ownership across five protected area-centered ecosystems. • Ownership and disturbance may display an interactive effect on tree growth rate. • Management agencies employ diverse responses to ecological disturbances. • Disturbance response may shape ecological variation among jurisdictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water footprinting has revealed hydro-economic interdependencies between distant global geographies via trade, especially of agricultural and manufactured goods. However, for metropolitan areas, trade not only entails commodity flows at many scales from intra-municipal to global, but also substantial intra-metropolitan flows of the skilled labor that is essential to a city's high-value economy. Virtual water flows between municipalities are directly relevant for municipal water supply policy and infrastructure investment because they quantify the hydro-economic dependency between neighboring municipalities. These municipalities share a physical water supply and also place demands on their neighbors' water supplies by outsourcing labor and commodity production outside the municipal and water supply system boundary to the metropolitan area. Metropolitan area communities span dense urban cores to fringe agricultural towns, spanning a wide range of the US hydro-economy. This study quantifies water footprints and virtual water flows of the complete economy of the Phoenix Metropolitan Area's municipalities. A novel approach utilized journey to work data to estimate virtual water flows embedded in labor. Commodities dominate virtual water flows at all scales of analysis, however labor is shown to be important for intra-metropolitan virtual water flows. This is the first detailed water footprint analysis of Phoenix, an important city in a water-scarce region. This study establishes a hydro-economic typology for communities to define several niche roles and decision making points of view. This study's findings can be used to classify communities with respect to their relative roles, and to benchmark future improvements in water sustainability for all types of communities. More importantly, these findings motivate cooperative approaches to intra-metropolitan water supply policy that recognize the hydro-economic interdependence of these municipalities and their shared interest in ensuring a sustainable and resilient hydro-economy for all members of the metropolitan area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal areas serve as a vital interface between the land and sea or ocean and host about 40% of the world's population, providing significant social, economic, and ecological functions. Meanwhile, the sea-level rise caused by climate change, along with coastal erosion and accretion, alters coastal landscapes profoundly, threatening coastal sustainability. For instance, the Mississippi River Delta in Louisiana is one of the most vulnerable coastal areas. It faces severe long-term land loss that has disrupted the regional ecosystem balance during the past few decades. There is an urgent need to understand the land loss mechanism in coastal Louisiana and identify areas prone to land loss in the future. This study modeled the current and predicted the future land loss and identified natural–human variables in the Louisiana Coastal Zone (LCZ) using remote sensing and machine-learning approaches. First, we analyzed the temporal and spatial land loss patterns from 2001 to 2016 in the study area. Second, logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and random forest models with 15 human and natural variables were carried out during each five-year and the fifteen-year period to delineate the short- and long-term land loss mechanisms. Finally, we simulated the land-loss probability in 2031 using the optimal model. The results indicate that land loss patterns in different parts change through time at an overall decelerating speed. The oil and gas well density and subsidence rate were the most significant land loss drivers during 2001–2016. The simulation shows that a total area of 180 km2 of land has over a 50% probability of turning to water from 2016 to 2031. This research offers valuable information for decision-makers and local communities to prepare for future land cover changes, reduce potential risks, and efficiently manage the land restoration in coastal Louisiana. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Mississippi River Delta (MRD) are two of the largest deltas in the world. Despite similar forcing conditions of fluvial sediment reduction and relative sea-level rise, there are significant differences in deltaic change caused by hydrodynamics and human activities. In this review, we compare the morphological changes of the two deltas at multiple spatial and temporal scales and identify the lessons learned from past engineering and management strategies. While the YRD has seen an increase of subaerial land of ~1500 km2 since 1950, the MRD has lost approximately 5000 km2 of land since the early 1930s. Extensive land reclamation and coastal shoreline embankment in the YRD have led to land gain at the expense of tidal wetland shrinkage. In contrast, flood control, waterway transportation, and petroleum industry in the MRD have resulted in levee construction and canal building, which together with subsidence and sea-level rise, have led to significant wetland loss in the MRD. The tidal forcing in the YRD is much stronger than that in the MRD, which has played a role in redistributing subaqueous sediment back into the delta plain, offsetting the negative effect of fluvial sediment reduction. In contrast with continuous population increase on the YRD, wetland loss and exposure to flooding hazards have resulted in population loss on the MRD. These comparative analyses reveal that nature and human interventions have acted together in shaping the modern deltaic morphology. Using the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) analysis framework, we propose a conceptual model to provide holistic understanding of the natural-human coupled delta system and management strategies, which could yield broad implications for coping with the future challenges in global deltas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network enters its fourth decade with a distinguished record of achievement in ecological science. The value of long-term observations and experiments has never been more important for testing ecological theory and for addressing today's most difficult environmental challenges. The network's potential for tackling emergent continent-scale questions such as cryosphere loss and landscape change is becoming increasingly apparent on the basis of a capacity to combine long-term observations and experimental results with new observatory-based measurements, to study socioecological systems, to advance the use of environmental cyberinfrastructure, to promote environmental science literacy, and to engage with decisionmakers in framing major directions for research. The long-term context of network science, from understanding the past to forecasting the future, provides a valuable perspective for helping to solve many of the crucial environmental problems facing society today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the Linkages to Public Land (LPL) Framework which is a social assessment and planning approach to identify and categorize various types of linkages that people have to public land in the U.S. The five basic linkage categories include tribal, use, interest, neighboring land and decision making. It explains the conceptual, legal and theoretical underpinnings of these linkage categories and further refinement into subcategories.

Abstract: We synthesize the study of coupled natural and human systems across sites and cultures through a process of simplification and abstraction based on multiple dimensions of human-nature connectedness: satisfaction of basic needs, psycho-cultural connectedness and regulation of use of natural resources. We thus provide both a place-based and general understanding of value-driven anthropogenic environmental change and response. Two questions guide this research: what are the crucial stakeholder values that drive land use decisions and thus land cover change? And how can knowledge of these values be used to make decisions and policies that sustain both the human and natural systems in a place? To explore these questions we build simulation models of four study sites, two in the State of Texas, United States, and two in Venezuela. All include protected areas, though they differ in the specifics of vegetation and land use. In the Texas sites, relatively affluent individuals are legally converting forests to residential, commercial, and industrial uses, while in Venezuela landless settlers are extra-legally converting forests for purposes of subsistence agriculture. Contemporary modeling techniques now facilitate simulations of stakeholder and ecosystem dynamics revealing emergent patterns. Such coupled human and natural systems are currently recognized as a form of biocomplexity. Our modeling framework is flexible enough to allow adaptation to each of the study sites, capturing the essential features of the respective natural and anthropogenic land use changes and stakeholder reactions. The interactions between human stakeholders are simulated using multi-agent models that act on forest landscape models, and receive feedback of the effects of these actions on ecological habitats and hydrological response. The multi-agent models employ a formal logic-based method for the Venezuelan sites and a decision analysis approach using multi-attribute utility functions for the Texas sites, differing more in style and emphasis than in substance. Our natural-systems models are generic and can be tailored according to site-specific conditions. Similar models of tree growth and patch transitions are used for all the study sites and the differing responses to environmental variables are specified for each local species and terrain conditions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The role of remote sensing and human–environment interactions (HEI) research in social and environmental decision-making has steadily increased along with numerous technological and methodological advances in the global environmental change field. Given the growing inter- and trans-disciplinary nature of studies focused on understanding the human dimensions of global change (HDGC), the need for a synchronization of agendas is evident. We conduct a bibliometric assessment and review of the last two decades of peer-reviewed literature to ascertain what the trends and current directions of integrating remote sensing into HEI research have been and discuss emerging themes, challenges, and opportunities. Despite advances in applying remote sensing to understanding ever more complex HEI fields such as land use/land cover change and landscape degradation, agricultural dynamics, urban geography and ecology, natural hazards, water resources, epidemiology, or paleo HEIs, challenges remain in acquiring and leveraging accurately georeferenced social data and establishing transferable protocols for data integration. However, recent advances in micro-satellite, unmanned aerial systems (UASs), and sensor technology are opening new avenues of integration of remotely sensed data into HEI research at scales relevant for decision-making purposes that simultaneously catalyze developments in HDGC research. Emerging or underutilized methodologies and technologies such as thermal sensing, digital soil mapping, citizen science, UASs, cloud computing, mobile mapping, or the use of "humans as sensors" will continue to enhance the relevance of HEI research in achieving sustainable development goals and driving the science of HDGC further. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]