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Future projections indicate that Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) faces a "wetter and more variable" climate. However, the reasons remain uncertain. The Last Interglacial (LIG) climate provides a potential analog for future warming. Investigating ISMR responses to these two warming scenarios could help understand the causes of ISMR changes. Using PMIP4 simulations, we find that ISMR became "wetter and more stable" during the LIG, contrasting the future climate. The opposing changes in ISMR variability are related to divergent changes in the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitudes, ENSO‐ISMR relationships, and ENSO‐induced large‐scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. During the LIG, orbital forcing weakened ENSO variability and its impacts on ISMR. A westward positioning of ENSO shifted the atmospheric circulation anomalies westward, suppressing extreme ISMR anomalies. These processes are supported by atmospheric model simulations. Our results suggest that different warming patterns (dynamic effects) are more critical than moisture‐increasing effects in controlling regional climate variability. Plain Language Summary: The Last Interglacial (LIG), approximately 129,000 to 116,000 years before the present, is a potential analog for future warming. We found that the variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) decreased while its mean state increased during the LIG, which is a "wetter and more stable" climate. This contrasts with the simultaneous increase in both the mean state and variability of ISMR projected in future warming scenarios. The opposing changes in ISMR variability during these two warm periods can be attributed to reverse changes in El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and its associated large‐scale circulation. During the LIG, reduced ENSO variability weakened the ENSO‐ISMR relationship. Sea surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO extended westward in LIG, shifting precipitation and associated heating‐induced atmospheric circulation anomalies westward, which weakened the extreme ISMR anomalies, thus making the ISMR variability stable. This process is further supported by atmospheric general circulation model (CAM5) experiments. Our findings suggest that different external forcing‐induced warming patterns (dynamic effects) can be more critical than moisture‐increasing effects in contributing to regional climate variability change. Key Points: Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) experienced a more stable climate during the LIG opposite to the change under anthropogenic warmingRelationship between ISMR and ENSO significantly weakened due to the waning ENSO variability induced by orbital forcingA westward positioning of ENSO during the LIG shifted the anomalous large‐scale circulation westward, reducing the extreme ISMR anomalies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dominant influence of precession‐induced changes in summer insolation on orbital‐scale variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) during the Holocene has been widely proposed; however, it remains unclear why the decline of the ASM started several thousand years after the peak summer insolation. Through comparisons of climate simulations and proxy records, our study reveals that the abrupt decline in the ASM coincided with an increase in spring insolation at the equator. The reduced spring insolation resulted in a cooler tropical Indian Ocean, which weakened and shifted northward the westerly jet due to decreased meridional thermal gradient. The South Asian high moved northward in conjunction with the westerly jet, causing anomalous upwards over northern South Asia, the Tibetan Plateau, as well as southwestern and northern China. The associated anomalous cyclone over the Tibetan Plateau enhanced the monsoonal moisture transport, subsequently intensifying the ASM circulation and precipitation. The ASM was enhanced by the decrease in spring insolation and was weakened by the opposite. The abrupt decline of the ASM was associated with an increase in spring insolation superimposed on a decrease in summer insolation. Consequently, orbital‐scale ASM variability is dominated by the precession not only via insolation changes in summer but also changes in spring. Plain Language Summary: It is widely acknowledged that orbital‐scale Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability was controlled by precession‐dominated changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. However, it is still not clear why the ASM did not weaken in response to the initial decrease in summer insolation (e.g., during the early to mid‐Holocene), as evidenced in numerous records. This study explores the underlying dynamics driving the decline of the ASM by comparing climate simulations with proxy records. Our findings reveal that an abrupt decline in the ASM commenced from minimum spring insolation at the equator, lagging the peak summer insolation by several thousand years. Reduced spring insolation had a prolonged impact on cooling of the tropical Indian Ocean in summer, leading to a decrease in meridional thermal gradient. Consequently, both westerly jet and South Asian high shifted northward, intensifying the ASM circulation and precipitation. The decreasing spring insolation slowed down the decline of the ASM, while the rising spring insolation accelerated it. Hence, an abrupt decline in the ASM was driven by increasing spring insolation superimposed on decreasing summer insolation. Key Points: An abrupt decline in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) kept pace with the rise in equatorial spring insolationEquatorial spring insolation exerted a prolonged impact on the tropical Indian Ocean in the following summerThe ASM was modulated by the tropical Indian Ocean via shifting the Asian subtropical westerly jet [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Future projections indicate that Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) faces a “wetter and more variable” climate. However, the reasons remain uncertain. The Last Interglacial (LIG) climate provides a potential analog for future warming. Investigating ISMR responses to these two warming scenarios could help understand the causes of ISMR changes. Using PMIP4 simulations, we find that ISMR became “wetter and more stable” during the LIG, contrasting the future climate. The opposing changes in ISMR variability are related to divergent changes in the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitudes, ENSO‐ISMR relationships, and ENSO‐induced large‐scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. During the LIG, orbital forcing weakened ENSO variability and its impacts on ISMR. A westward positioning of ENSO shifted the atmospheric circulation anomalies westward, suppressing extreme ISMR anomalies. These processes are supported by atmospheric model simulations. Our results suggest that different warming patterns (dynamic effects) are more critical than moisture‐increasing effects in controlling regional climate variability.

In this study, the radiation scheme BCC-RAD (Beijing Climate Center RADiative transfer model) developed for global climate models is implemented into the Global–Regional Integrated SysTem (GRIST) model as an alternative to the default RRTMG (general circulation model (GCM) version of the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model) scheme. Its impact on the simulated climate is comprehensively evaluated under different physics parametrization packages, in comparison with both the CERES (partly from ERA5 reanalysis) observations and multi-model results from CMIP6. The results indicate that under the default physics parameterization package of GRIST (PhysC), BCC-RAD improved the simulated global mean cloud cover by ~3% and the clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation by ~5.6 W/m2. Upon the inclusion of the PhysCN parameterization package, BCC-RAD exhibited further improvement in simulated cloud cover and radiative forcing (particularly longwave radiative forcing, the bias of which decreases from −9.2 W/m2 to −1.8 W/m2), leading it to be closer to observations than RRTMG. Additionally, BCC-RAD improved the simulation of atmospheric temperature and hence notably diminished the apparent overestimation of atmospheric humidity seen in RRTMG. This study demonstrates the advantages of BCC-RAD over RRTMG in certain aspects of the GRIST-simulated climate, verifying its capability for the climate-oriented configuration of GRIST. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Toward the achievement of reliable global kilometer‐scale (k‐scale) climate simulations, we improve the Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) by focusing on moist physical processes. A goal of the model improvement is to establish a configuration that can simulate realistic fields seamlessly from the daily‐scale variability to the climatological statistics. Referring to the two representative configurations of the present NICAM, each of which has been used for climate‐scale and sub‐seasonal‐scale experiments, we try to find the appropriate partitioning of fast/local and slow/global‐scale circulations. In a series of sensitivity experiments at 14‐km horizontal resolution, we test (a) the tuning of terminal velocities of rain, snow, and cloud ice, (b) the implementation of turbulent diffusion by the Leonard term, and (c) enhanced vertical resolution. These tests yield reasonable convection triggering and convection‐induced tropospheric moistening, and result in better performance than in previous NICAM climate simulations. In the mean state, double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias disappears, and the zonal contrast of equatorial precipitation, top‐of‐atmosphere radiation balance, vertical temperature profile, and position/strength of subtropical jet are reproduced dramatically better. Variability such as equatorial waves and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is spontaneously realized with appropriate spectral power balance, and the Asian summer monsoon, boreal‐summer MJO, and tropical cyclone (TC) activities are more realistically simulated especially around the western Pacific. Meanwhile, biases still exist in the representation of low‐cloud fraction, TC intensity, and precipitation diurnal cycle, suggesting that both higher spatial resolutions and further model development are warranted. Plain Language Summary: In the near future, increasing computational power will make it possible to perform a global kilometer‐scale "cloud‐resolving" model (GCRM) simulation on the climate time scale, which is expected to reduce the uncertainty of cloud‐related processes in the climate system. In this sense, it is important to make GCRMs more reliable tools in the evaluation and prediction of the variabilities over a wide range of spatio‐temporal scales. With this perspective, we improve a Japanese GCRM, the Nonhydrostatic Atmospheric Icosahedral Model (NICAM), to achieve the realistic representation of both weather phenomena and climatological features in long‐term simulations. We revise the NICAM by the reconsideration of cloud microphysics properties, the implementation of diffusion processes around strong convection cores, and increased vertical layers. These revisions lead to the substantial improvements in the climatological mean precipitation distributions, radiative energy balance at the top of the atmosphere, westerly jets in the mid‐latitude, and temperature fields. We also find that weather phenomena such as the Asian summer monsoon and tropical cyclone (TC) genesis are simulated more realistically. We expect that, in addition to the above model improvements, kilometer‐scale horizontal resolutions can resolve a part of remaining issues of the representation of TC intensity and precipitation diurnal cycle. Key Points: We improve a global nonhydrostatic atmospheric model focusing on resolution‐independent errors that can exist even in k‐scale climate runsKey improvements are retuning of cloud microphysics properties, consideration of grid‐scale turbulent mixing, and increased vertical layersBiases in mean rainfall, radiation balance, and circulation as well as weather (monsoon, Madden–Julian oscillation, equatorial wave, tropical cyclone) are reduced [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates of the tropical cloud feedback of global climate models (GCMs) show a large inter‐model spread due to the small‐scale nature of convective cloud processes. Estimates from large‐eddy simulations (LES) are more consistent among themselves, but difficult to scale to the climate system. Here we consider a compromise between GCMs and LES, and study how tropical clouds over the Atlantic respond to a climate perturbation in a regional kilometer‐resolution model. We perform two 4‐year‐long simulations at 3.3 km horizontal grid spacing with the limited‐area model COSMO on a 9,000 × 7,000 km2 domain covering the tropical Atlantic: a control simulation and a climate change simulation using the pseudo‐global warming approach. In a previous publication we have demonstrated that this approach yields a credible representation of the tropical climate without the double‐ITCZ bias commonly seen in GCMs. Here we address the cloud feedback and find a reduction of ITCZ high‐cloud cover resulting in a negative longwave cloud feedback similar to the CMIP6 ensemble mean. We find a reduction of stratocumulus clouds, which we argue is primarily a thermodynamic response. More surprisingly, the shallow cumulus cloud cover over the West Atlantic increases, which we argue is due to increased stability resulting in weaker entrainment and a more humid boundary layer. The mean shortwave cloud feedback over the tropical Atlantic is positive, comparable to the CMIP6 ensemble mean. The emerging estimate of the total cloud‐radiative feedback over the Atlantic is slightly negative, consistent with CMIP6 GCMs, but it is substantially stronger than that of the driving GCM. Plain Language Summary: The response of tropical clouds to climate change is considered an important, but highly uncertain climate feedback mechanism. In this study, we perform high‐resolution climate simulations over the tropical Atlantic to obtain an estimate of tropical cloud changes over a large region based on a higher model resolution than typically used in global climate models (GCMs). This modeling approach yields a credible representation of the tropical climate with an improved representation of clouds compared to GCMs. The high‐resolution simulations project a reduction of high clouds in the deep tropics and a reduction of stratocumulus clouds in the East Atlantic in a warming climate. These results qualitatively agree with previous work. More surprisingly, the West Atlantic shallow cumulus cloud fraction increases with warming. The estimated longwave cloud feedback is more negative than in the analyzed CMIP6 GCMs while the shortwave cloud feedback is similar to the GCMs, resulting in a net cloud feedback comparable to the GCMs. However, the simulated feedback is substantially stronger than in the driving GCM. Key Points: We study tropical cloud changes and radiative feedbacks over the Atlantic in kilometer‐resolution climate‐change simulationsWe find a reduction of high and low clouds in most of the domain, while the West Atlantic shallow cumulus cloud fraction increasesThe emerging estimate of the cloud feedback is slightly negative, consistent with CMIP6 GCMs, but less negative than that of the driving GCM [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the added value in using the sea level pressure field from the coupled higher‐resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM‐HR), compared to the lower‐resolution version (MPI‐ESM‐LR) for circulation typing, within the regional context of Western Europe was examined. The results show that the MPI‐ESM‐HR and the MPI‐ESM‐LR simulations can produce the classified circulation types (CTs) and their long‐term statistical characteristics as obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis. Overall, there are improvements in the composite maps, probability of occurrence and annual cycle of the simulated CTs in the MPI‐ESM‐HR compared to the MPI‐ESM‐LR. The model bias in simulating the structure of anticyclonic circulations over the Western European landmass was reduced by 14% under MPI‐ESM‐HR. Furthermore, under the shared socio‐economic pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) future emission scenarios, the historical CTs in the region of assessment were classified, suggesting that in Western Europe, the same historical CTs are present under future climate change scenarios. However, the frequency distribution and geographical structure of some of the CTs in Western Europe are projected to change by the MPI‐ESM model, especially under the higher future emission scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Toward the achievement of reliable global kilometer‐scale (k‐scale) climate simulations, we improve the Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) by focusing on moist physical processes. A goal of the model improvement is to establish a configuration that can simulate realistic fields seamlessly from the daily‐scale variability to the climatological statistics. Referring to the two representative configurations of the present NICAM, each of which has been used for climate‐scale and sub‐seasonal‐scale experiments, we try to find the appropriate partitioning of fast/local and slow/global‐scale circulations. In a series of sensitivity experiments at 14‐km horizontal resolution, we test (a) the tuning of terminal velocities of rain, snow, and cloud ice, (b) the implementation of turbulent diffusion by the Leonard term, and (c) enhanced vertical resolution. These tests yield reasonable convection triggering and convection‐induced tropospheric moistening, and result in better performance than in previous NICAM climate simulations. In the mean state, double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias disappears, and the zonal contrast of equatorial precipitation, top‐of‐atmosphere radiation balance, vertical temperature profile, and position/strength of subtropical jet are reproduced dramatically better. Variability such as equatorial waves and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is spontaneously realized with appropriate spectral power balance, and the Asian summer monsoon, boreal‐summer MJO, and tropical cyclone (TC) activities are more realistically simulated especially around the western Pacific. Meanwhile, biases still exist in the representation of low‐cloud fraction, TC intensity, and precipitation diurnal cycle, suggesting that both higher spatial resolutions and further model development are warranted.

Whether the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is controlled by local or remote insolation at the orbital band remains uncertain. Here, we perform a transient simulation forced by Earth's orbital parameters between 400 and 350 ka BP, a period characterized by significant contrast between local and remote insolation, to identify the SASM's response to insolation forcing. Simulation results suggest that the primary driver of orbital‐scale SASM variability is the Northern Hemisphere high‐latitude June insolation, as opposed to local insolation. High June insolation in the Southern Hemisphere might reduce the SASM intensity. Remote insolation influences the SASM by altering the latitudinal thermal gradient and, consequently, the meridional position of the South Asian high (SAH). The SAH is associated with intense convection and hence drives the meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone and the SASM rain belt. Thus, orbital‐scale SASM variability is strongly related to remote insolation forcing. Plain Language Summary: Because the monsoon is directly related to the movement of the subsolar point, insolation changes are important in regulating the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) intensity at an orbital timescale. However, it remains unclear whether the SASM is driven by local insolation that directly strikes southern Asia, or remote insolation in the high‐latitude Northern Hemisphere or the Southern Hemisphere at the precession band. We find a time window between 400 and 350 ka BP (ka = thousand years, BP = before present) when local and remote insolations differ significantly, allowing us to determine which insolation dominates the SASM at orbital timescales. We use an Earth system model with orbital forcing to run a transient simulation between 400 and 350 ka BP. Simulations suggest that the SASM is primarily influenced by Northern Hemisphere high‐latitude summer insolation rather than local insolation. Additionally, Southern Hemisphere insolation has a negative impact on orbital‐scale SASM variability. Remote insolation influences the SASM by inducing an anomalous meridional thermal gradient, which moves the South Asian high and thus the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Our findings are significant for future SASM projections because the obvious difference between remote and local insolation will reappear in the next 50 ka. Key Points: Local insolation is not the direct driver for orbital‐scale variability of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM)The meridional shift of the South Asian high (SAH) affects orbital‐scale SASM variabilityRemote insolation influences the meridional shift in the SAH through altering the latitudinal thermal contrast [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme climate have increased, especially extreme high temperatures. In order to correctly predict the changes in the extreme high temperatures in summer in China in this century, it is urgent to deepen the understanding of the characteristics and physical mechanisms of the extreme high temperatures in summer on the centennial timescale. Many researchers have explored the mechanism of the influences of the variability of the solar cycle on climate change, while the mechanism of the influences of the centennial variation of solar activity on climate change remains elusive. Here, we use the outputs from the Control (CTRL) experiment, Total solar irradiance and Orbital (TSI_ORB) experiment, and Orbital (ORB) experiment from Nanjing Normal University-Holocene (NNU-Hol) experiments to study the extreme high temperatures in summer in China during the Holocene. On the basis of verifying the consistency of the centennial period between the TSI (TSI_ORB minus ORB plus CTRL) experiment and the reconstructed data, we compared the centennial variation characteristics of the summer extreme high temperature in the CTRL experiment and the TSI experiment. It shows that under the modulation of total solar irradiance, the centennial spatial pattern of the summer extreme high temperatures changed from dipole mode to uniform mode, with 300-year and 500-year periodicity, compared to the influence of only internal variability. On the centennial time scale, the greatest difference is located in northeast China. The subsidence movement and the reduction of cloud cover caused by the anticyclone under the control of high-pressure lead to the increase of downward solar radiation, thus making a positive center is showed in northeast China on the impacts of total solar irradiance. Furthermore, the center of the Rossby wave train in the barotropic structure of the upper circulation related to the summer extreme high temperature significantly moves northward. This barotropic structure is composed of continuous pressure ridges from Eurasia to North America and the North Atlantic, which is conducive to the increase of the summer extreme high temperatures. Furthermore, we investigated the underlying physical mechanisms. Under the influence of total solar irradiance, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with the same centennial cycle as extreme high temperatures lead to obvious subsidence movement and increase of radiation flux, causing an increase in extreme high temperatures over northeast China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the radiation scheme BCC-RAD (Beijing Climate Center RADiative transfer model) developed for global climate models is implemented into the Global–Regional Integrated SysTem (GRIST) model as an alternative to the default RRTMG (general circulation model (GCM) version of the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model) scheme. Its impact on the simulated climate is comprehensively evaluated under different physics parametrization packages, in comparison with both the CERES (partly from ERA5 reanalysis) observations and multi-model results from CMIP6. The results indicate that under the default physics parameterization package of GRIST (PhysC), BCC-RAD improved the simulated global mean cloud cover by ~3% and the clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation by ~5.6 W/m2. Upon the inclusion of the PhysCN parameterization package, BCC-RAD exhibited further improvement in simulated cloud cover and radiative forcing (particularly longwave radiative forcing, the bias of which decreases from −9.2 W/m2 to −1.8 W/m2), leading it to be closer to observations than RRTMG. Additionally, BCC-RAD improved the simulation of atmospheric temperature and hence notably diminished the apparent overestimation of atmospheric humidity seen in RRTMG. This study demonstrates the advantages of BCC-RAD over RRTMG in certain aspects of the GRIST-simulated climate, verifying its capability for the climate-oriented configuration of GRIST.

Abstract Whether the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is controlled by local or remote insolation at the orbital band remains uncertain. Here, we perform a transient simulation forced by Earth's orbital parameters between 400 and 350 ka BP, a period characterized by significant contrast between local and remote insolation, to identify the SASM's response to insolation forcing. Simulation results suggest that the primary driver of orbital‐scale SASM variability is the Northern Hemisphere high‐latitude June insolation, as opposed to local insolation. High June insolation in the Southern Hemisphere might reduce the SASM intensity. Remote insolation influences the SASM by altering the latitudinal thermal gradient and, consequently, the meridional position of the South Asian high (SAH). The SAH is associated with intense convection and hence drives the meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone and the SASM rain belt. Thus, orbital‐scale SASM variability is strongly related to remote insolation forcing.

Clouds over tropical oceans are an important factor in the Earth's response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, but their representation in climate models is challenging due to the small‐scale nature of the involved convective processes. We perform two 4‐year‐long simulations at kilometer‐resolution (3.3 km horizontal grid spacing) with the limited‐area model COSMO over the tropical Atlantic on a 9,000 × 7,000 km2 domain: A control simulation under current climate conditions driven by the ERA5 reanalysis, and a climate change scenario simulation using the Pseudo‐Global Warming approach. We compare these results to the changes projected in the CMIP6 scenario ensemble. Validation shows a good representation of the annual cycle of albedo, in particular for trade‐wind clouds, even compared to the ERA5 reanalysis. Also, the vertical structure and annual cycle of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is accurately simulated, and the simulation does not suffer from the double ITCZ problem commonly present in global climate models (GCMs). The response to global warming differs between the COSMO simulation and the analyzed GCMs. While both exhibit an overall weakening of the Hadley circulation, the narrowing of the ITCZ (known as the deep‐tropics squeeze) is not so pronounced in the kilometer‐resolution simulation, likely due to the absence of a double ITCZ bias. Also, there is a more pronounced intensification of the ITCZ at the equator in the kilometer‐resolution COSMO simulation, and a stronger associated increase in the anvil cloud fraction. Plain Language Summary: Tropical clouds are an important component of the climate system as they can either amplify or dampen human‐induced climate change. However, predicting how clouds will change in a warming climate is challenging due to their small‐scale nature. We perform high‐resolution atmospheric climate simulations over the tropical Atlantic to study what we can learn about tropical clouds from this relatively novel type of models. We validate the simulation under current climate conditions and find a good representation of tropical clouds in comparison to coarser climate models. In particular, the high‐resolution simulation does not suffer from the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) problem commonly present in global climate models. We then study how tropical clouds will change in a warming climate and find differences between our high‐resolution simulation and coarser climate simulations. The tropical overturning (Hadley) circulation weakens in both model types, but the narrowing of the ITCZ (known as the deep‐tropics squeeze) is not so pronounced in the high‐resolution simulation, likely due to the absence of a double ITCZ bias. Key Points: We perform a km‐resolution climate simulation over the tropical Atlantic for current and future climate conditions using the Pseudo‐Global Warming approachWe find an accurate representation of the annual cycle of shallow cumulus clouds and a realistic structure of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), without double ITCZThe ITCZ shows a stronger central intensification and weaker narrowing with warming than in the global climate models [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The causes of the decreased intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) over the past 150 years are still not fully understood, although several studies have linked the monsoon weakening to the warming of tropical oceans. Here, we use pine tree‐rings to reconstruct the precipitation total for April–August from 1810 to 2018, in south‐central Shandong Province, in the EASM region. The reconstruction accounts for 41.8% of the instrumental precipitation variance during 1965–2018. The EASM precipitation reconstruction shows extreme pluvial conditions in 1832, 1833, 1886, and 1998, and extreme droughts in 1878, 1901, and 1910, which correspond precisely to extreme climatic events recorded in historical documents. The reconstructed precipitation reveals a drying trend since the 1870s, which matches well with the decreasing trend of the EASM inferred from stalagmite oxygen isotope (δ18O) records and climate simulations. The trend of decreasing precipitation since the 1870s, indicated by our reconstruction, is significantly correlated with the spring sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Atlantic Ocean, which suggests that the EASM weakening was linked to North Atlantic SST variations during the past 150 years. This potential role of North Atlantic SST variability is supported by climate sensitivity simulations of the Community Earth System Model. North Atlantic SST variability induces two teleconnections of Rossby‐like wave propagation from the North Atlantic into East Asia, resulting in anomalous precipitation in this region. Key Points: A 209‐year precipitation reconstruction was established from the south‐central Shandong, the monsoonal eastern China used pine tree ringsSeveral historical severe droughts are captured by the reconstructed precipitation, and 20th century was dominated by dry conditionsThe trend of decreasing precipitation since the 1870s correlates significantly with spring sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of model systems requires a detailed assessment of standing genetic variation across natural populations. The Brachypodium species complex has been promoted as a plant model for grass genomics with translation to small grain and biomass crops. To capture the genetic diversity within this species complex, thousands of Brachypodium accessions from around the globe were collected and genotyped by sequencing. Overall, 1897 samples were classified into two diploid or allopolyploid species, and then further grouped into distinct inbred genotypes. A core set of diverse B. distachyon diploid lines was selected for whole genome sequencing and high resolution phenotyping. Genome-wide association studies across simulated seasonal environments was used to identify candidate genes and pathways tied to key life history and agronomic traits under current and future climatic conditions. A total of 8, 22, and 47 QTL were identified for flowering time, early vigor, and energy traits, respectively. The results highlight the genomic structure of the Brachypodium species complex, and the diploid lines provided a resource that allows complex trait dissection within this grass model species.

Understanding millennial‐scale East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variability is critical for climate projection in East Asia in the context of slowing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) caused by global warming. This study performs two groups of sensitivity experiments at 8.2 and 4.2 ka BP, both forced by the same North Atlantic freshwater hosing and corresponding orbital parameters using the Community Earth System Model, to explore the orbital effect on millennial‐scale EASM variability. Our simulations reveal that EASM variability differs significantly between these two cold events. During the 8.2 ka BP (4.2 ka BP) (0 BP = 1950 AD) cold event, North Atlantic freshwater forcing weakens the EASM, generating a meridional tripole (dipole) pattern of EASM precipitation anomalies. Furthermore, the same freshwater discharge causes a greater decline in the EASM, contrasting to a slight weaker AMOC slowdown, at 4.2 ka BP than at 8.2 ka BP. This suggests orbital parameters significantly influence the EASM response to North Atlantic cold events. The East Asian subtropical westerly jet, whose meridional position and intensity are controlled by summer insolation on an orbital timescale, plays a key role in this orbital effect. The westerly jet's meridional position determines the spatial pattern of EASM precipitation anomalies, while its intensity affects the amplitude of the EASM's response to freshwater forcing. Because of a larger EASM decline due to freshwater hosing with lower summer insolation, we anticipate a profound declining EASM precipitation in the future with low summer insolation if the AMOC continues to weaken. Key Points: Millennial‐scale East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variability is modulated by Earth's orbital parametersThe EASM weakens more pronounced in response to North Atlantic freshwater forcing under lower summer insolationSummer insolation influences the EASM response to North Atlantic freshwater forcing via the westerly jet [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The features of monsoon systems in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are analysed in climate simulations of two atmospheric models: the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model version 1.2 (BAM‐v1.2) and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3). The results are compared to GPCP precipitation and ERA5 datasets. Although they have different configurations and parameterizations, the purpose is to evaluate their ability in representing key features of the global monsoon system. The spatial extent of the monsoon domains is well simulated by the models, as well as the main characteristics of the monsoons, although precipitation biases are noticed in the regions affected by the systems, consistent with vertical motion and moisture flux biases. The largest precipitation biases are found in the West Pacific Monsoon Region, extended to the east, and in the Australia Monsoon Region extended to the Maritime continent. Deficiencies in precipitation can be related to inaccuracy of vertical motion and humidity flux, as well as to the lack of air–sea interaction. However, the atmospheric circulation features at low and high levels are well represented in all monsoon regions, as well as the annual cycle of precipitation in those regions by both models. The divergence at high levels and convergence at low levels associated with ascending air movement and precipitation in monsoon regions are well represented by the models. An analysis of two monsoon indices at eight monsoon regions showed the models are generally able to simulate the relationship between precipitation and circulation features. In the majority of years, the signs of indices from the models agree with observations. Correlations of precipitation and circulation indices between models and observations show statistically significant values for some monsoon regions. The results obtained contribute to improving knowledge about global monsoon features and their representation in the two models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and rapid ocean surface wave simulations are essential for navigation safety, marine activity, and climate change research. However, traditional numerical wave models incur substantial computational costs, especially in long-term simulations for climatology research. Deep-learning methods have shown promise in enabling faster simulations with fewer computational resources. However, the cumulative error in current deep-learning wave models limits their use as surrogate component models in climate modeling. In this work, a deep-learning model, named the Global Wave Surrogate Model for Climate simulation (GWSM4C), was developed based on a convolutional architecture, which accounts for the physical processes (wind waves and swells) of waves. Because GWSM4C can automatically generate initial conditions for each simulation moment depending only on historical wind fields, the accumulation of errors from previous simulated wave states can be avoided. The experimental results demonstrated that simulated global significant wave height produced by GWSM4C exhibited a correlation coefficient of 0.94 and a root-mean-square error of 0.21 m compared with the traditional numerical wave model. Furthermore, the generalization test of the GWSM4C indicates that it is feasible to use GWSM4C for long-term wave simulation in climatology-related studies or to integrate it into a coupled climate model as a surrogate wave component model. • GWSM4C is a cutting-edge cost-effective deep-learning model for climate models. • STE architectures are designed to extract wave propagation features. • GWSM4C produces global wave heights without cumulative errors using wind fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distribution of vegetation across glacial Sundaland and the underlying mechanisms have long been debated. We address this issue by comparing a compilation of vegetation reconstructions with climate simulations from the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). A new n -alkane δ13C record derived from higher plants, covering the period from 21 to 5 cal ka BP in the southern South China Sea, is presented. This record, combined with previous pollen-based reconstructions, indicates that C 3 forests dominated the outer-to-mid shelf regions of the northern Sundaland between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Heinrich Stadial 1, while open grasslands occupied the inner shelf region. A compilation of vegetation reconstructions shows a glacial contraction of lowland rainforests in longitudinal extent compared to the Holocene, especially in southern Sundaland. Furthermore, the previously proposed "savannah corridor" or "dry tropical forests" existed in the interior of Sundaland during the LGM, extending from the Malay Peninsula to the Lesser Sunda Islands. Modelling studies suggest that changes in the seasonality of precipitation, rather than mean annual rainfall, are more relevant to vegetation changes between the LGM and the Holocene. The glacial emergence of Sundaland caused an eastward shift of the ascending branch of the Walker Circulation and a substantial reduction in atmospheric convection activity over Southeast Asia, leading to a decrease in water availability during the dry season in both hemispheres. The enhanced water stress thus favors the expansion of open environments. • Regional vegetation reconstructions are compared with hydroclimate simulations from the CESM2 model. • Glacial outer-middle continental shelf of northern Sundaland was covered by rainforests. • Savannah landscape or dry tropical forests occupied the glacial interior of Sundaland. • Enhanced dry-season water stress could account for glacial expansion of open environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) has contributed to the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) using two fully coupled model versions (ACCESS-CM2 and ACCESS-ESM1.5) and two ocean–sea-ice model versions (1° and 0.25° resolution versions of ACCESS-OM2). The fully coupled models differ primarily in the configuration and version of their atmosphere components (including the aerosol scheme), with smaller differences in their sea-ice and land model versions. Additionally, ACCESS-ESM1.5 includes biogeochemistry in the land and ocean components and can be run with an interactive carbon cycle. CMIP6 comprises core experiments and associated thematic Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). This paper provides an overview of the CMIP6 submission, including the methods used for the preparation of input forcing datasets and the post-processing of model output, along with a comprehensive list of experiments performed, detailing their initialisation, duration, ensemble number and computational cost. A small selection of model output is presented, focusing on idealised experiments and their variants at global scale. Differences in the climate simulation of the two coupled models are highlighted. ACCESS-CM2 produces a larger equilibrium climate sensitivity (4.7°C) than ACCESS-ESM1.5 (3.9°C), likely a result of updated atmospheric parameterisation in recent versions of the atmospheric component of ACCESS-CM2. The idealised experiments run with ACCESS-ESM1.5 show that land and ocean carbon fluxes respond to both changing atmospheric CO2 and to changing temperature. ACCESS data submitted to CMIP6 are available from the Earth System Grid Federation (https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2281 and https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2288). The information provided in this paper should facilitate easier use of these significant datasets by the broader climate community.

Under the background of global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme climate have increased, especially extreme high temperatures. In order to correctly predict the changes in the extreme high temperatures in summer in China in this century, it is urgent to deepen the understanding of the characteristics and physical mechanisms of the extreme high temperatures in summer on the centennial timescale. Many researchers have explored the mechanism of the influences of the variability of the solar cycle on climate change, while the mechanism of the influences of the centennial variation of solar activity on climate change remains elusive. Here, we use the outputs from the Control (CTRL) experiment, Total solar irradiance and Orbital (TSI_ORB) experiment, and Orbital (ORB) experiment from Nanjing Normal University-Holocene (NNU-Hol) experiments to study the extreme high temperatures in summer in China during the Holocene. On the basis of verifying the consistency of the centennial period between the TSI (TSI_ORB minus ORB plus CTRL) experiment and the reconstructed data, we compared the centennial variation characteristics of the summer extreme high temperature in the CTRL experiment and the TSI experiment. It shows that under the modulation of total solar irradiance, the centennial spatial pattern of the summer extreme high temperatures changed from dipole mode to uniform mode, with 300-year and 500-year periodicity, compared to the influence of only internal variability. On the centennial time scale, the greatest difference is located in northeast China. The subsidence movement and the reduction of cloud cover caused by the anticyclone under the control of high-pressure lead to the increase of downward solar radiation, thus making a positive center is showed in northeast China on the impacts of total solar irradiance. Furthermore, the center of the Rossby wave train in the barotropic structure of the upper circulation related to the summer extreme high temperature significantly moves northward. This barotropic structure is composed of continuous pressure ridges from Eurasia to North America and the North Atlantic, which is conducive to the increase of the summer extreme high temperatures. Furthermore, we investigated the underlying physical mechanisms. Under the influence of total solar irradiance, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with the same centennial cycle as extreme high temperatures lead to obvious subsidence movement and increase of radiation flux, causing an increase in extreme high temperatures over northeast China.

Paleoclimatic records reveal spatially asynchronous changes of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation during the Holocene, but the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. This study explores the role of the zonal shift of the Asian westerly jet (AWJ) core on the spatial‐temporal variability of EASM precipitation based on Holocene climate simulations using the KCM and CESM forced by orbital variations. We analyzed the composite differences of summer precipitation and associated atmospheric circulations between the early (middle) and middle (late) Holocene. Simulations suggest a dipole pattern of summer precipitation with increasing (decreasing) precipitation in central (southern) China from the early to late Holocene, which was shaped by the eastward shift of the AWJ core. The eastward shift of the AWJ core and the accompanied eastward movement of the upper‐level convergence over the AWJ's right exit region weakened the low‐level downward motions over central China. Meanwhile, the low‐level upward motions over southern China were weakened by the concurrent eastward (westward) migration of the South Asian High (western Pacific subtropical High) during the Holocene. Consequently, summer precipitation increased (decreased) in central (southern) China from the early to late Holocene. The eastward shift of the AWJ core was primarily driven by amplified meridional insolation gradient at middle latitudes via strengthening upper‐level westerly intensity during the Holocene. In addition, land cover difference between East Asia and central Asia caused a greater enhancement of westerlies intensity in East Asia, further modulating the eastward movement of the AWJ core during the Holocene. Key Points: Our simulations reveal a dipole pattern of summer precipitation between central and southern China during the HoloceneThe dipole precipitation pattern was strongly modulated by zonal shift of the Asian westerly jet coreInsolation variation and land cover caused the eastward shift of the Asian westerly jet core during the Holocene [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study tests the nonlinear bias-correction method of regional climate model (RCM) outputs using observations from meteorological stations in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). The correction technique applies to both monthly precipitation and temperature simulated by the RCM, RegCM4.7 for the period 1991–2011. The correction parameters of both monthly precipitation and temperature are investigated for different periods within the observational time to assess the stability of this correction method over time. The results show that this nonlinear bias-correction approach improves significantly the accuracy of the RCM mean monthly precipitation and temperature as well as the values of probability distribution over the study area. The bias-corrected forecast has significant improvement for both monthly precipitation and temperature from about 18.9 mm and 0.7°C of mean absolute error (MAE), and about 16 mm and 0.3°C of the root mean square error over the uncorrected ones, respectively. The correlation coefficient, skill score and the MAE skill are improved significantly over the study region. The successful performance of the bias-correction technique used in this study during the calibration and validation periods will be helped to capture more accurate current climate conditions and to predict future climate change over the DPRK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Accurate simulations of land processes are crucial for many purposes, such as climate simulation, weather, flood, and drought prediction, and climate change impact assessment studies. In this paper, we present a new land simulator called the Integrated Land Simulator (ILS). The ILS consists of multiple models that represent processes related to land (hereafter, referred to as “land models”). They are coupled by a general-purpose coupler, Jcup, and executed using the Multiple Program Multiple Data approach. Currently, ILS includes a physical land surface model, the Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and Runoff model, and a hydrodynamic model, the Catchment-based Macro-scale Floodplain model, and the inclusion of additional land models is planned. We conducted several test simulations to evaluate the computational speed and scalability and the basic physical performance of the ILS. The results will become a benchmark for further development.

A new version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator coupled model, ACCESS-CM2, has been developed for a wide range of climate modelling research and applications. In particular, ACCESS-CM2 is one of Australia's contributions to the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Compared with the ACCESS1.3 model used for our CMIP5 submission, all model components have been upgraded as well as the coupling framework (OASIS3-MCT) and experiment control system (Rose/Cylc). The component models are: UM10.6 GA7.1 for the atmosphere, CABLE2.5 for the land surface, MOM5 for the ocean, and CICE5.1.2 for the sea ice. This paper describes the model configuration of ACCESS-CM2, documents the experimental set up, and assesses the model performance for the preindustrial spin-up simulation in comparison against (reconstructed) observations and ACCESS1.3 results. While the performance of the two generations of the ACCESS coupled model is largely comparable, ACCESS-CM2 shows better global hydrological balance, more realistic ocean water properties (in terms of spatial distribution) and meridional overturning circulation in the Southern Ocean but a poorer simulation of the Antarctic sea ice and a larger energy imbalance at the top of atmosphere. This energy imbalance reflects a noticeable warming trend of the global ocean over the spin-up period.

To investigate the pure long-term influence of single mega volcanic eruption (SMVE) of universal significance on Arctic temperature changes in summer and winter, the Samalas eruption in Indonesia which is the largest eruption over the past millennium is selected as an ideal eruption for simulation study based on Community Earth System Model. The significant Arctic cooling lasts for 16 years after the Samalas eruption. The obvious Arctic cooling shifts from summer to winter, and this seasonal change of cooling after the SMVE only exists in the high-latitude Arctic region. The cooling range in Arctic summer is larger than that in winter during the first 2 years, due to the strong weakening effect of volcanic aerosol on summer incident solar radiation and the snow-ice positive feedback caused by the rapid expansion of summer sea ice, while the winter sea ice in the same period doesn’t increase obviously. Starting from the third year, the Arctic winter cooling is more intense and lasting than summer cooling. The direct weakening effect of aerosol on solar radiation, which is the main heat source in Arctic summer, is greatly weakened during this period, making summer cooling difficult to sustain. However, as the main heat source in Arctic winter, the sea surface upward longwave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat transport still maintain a large decrease. Furthermore, sea ice expansion and albedo increase result in the decrease in solar radiation and heat absorbed and stored by the ocean in summer. And the isolation effect of sea ice expansion on air-sea heat transfer in winter during this period makes the heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere correspondingly reduce in winter, thus intensifying the Arctic winter cooling. Additionally, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) changes from the negative phase to the positive phase in summer after the SMVE (such as Samalas), while it is reversed in winter. This phase change of AO is also one of the reasons for the seasonal changes in Arctic cooling.

Dynamical downscaling generally performs poorly on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), due to the region's complex topography and several aspects of model physics, especially convection and land surface processes. This study investigated the effects of the cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS) and land-surface hydrology scheme (LSHS) on TP climate simulation during the wet season using the RegCM4 regional climate model. To address these issues and seek an optimal simulation, we conducted four experiments at a 20 km resolution using various combinations of two CPSs (Grell and MIT-Emanuel), two LSHSs (the default TOPMODEL [TOP], and Variable Infiltration Capacity [VIC]). The simulations in terms of 2-m air temperature, precipitation (including large-scale precipitation [LSP] and convective precipitation [CP]), surface energy-water balance, as well as atmospheric moisture flux transport and vertical motion were compared with surface and satellite-based observations as well as the ERA5 reanalysis dataset for the period 2006–2016. The results revealed that the model using the Grell and TOP schemes better reproduced air temperature but with a warm bias, part of which could be significantly decreased by the MIT scheme. All schemes simulated a reasonable spatial distribution of precipitation, with the best performance in the experiment using the MIT and VIC schemes. Excessive precipitation was produced by the Grell scheme, mainly due to overestimated LSP, while the MIT scheme largely reduced the overestimation, and the simulated contribution of CP to total precipitation was in close agreement with the ERA5 data. The RegCM4 model satisfactorily captured diurnal cycles of precipitation amount and frequency, although there remained some differences in phase and magnitude, which were mainly caused by the CPSs. Relative to the Grell scheme, the MIT scheme yielded a weaker surface heating by reducing net radiation fluxes and the Bowen ratio. Consequently, anomalous moisture flux transport was substantially reduced over the southeastern TP, leading to a decrease in precipitation. The VIC scheme could also help decrease the wet bias by reducing surface heating. Further analysis indicated that the high CP in the MIT simulations could be attributed to destabilization in the low and mid-troposphere, while the VIC scheme tended to inhibit shallow convection, thereby decreasing CP. This study's results also suggest that CPS interacts with LSHS to affect the simulated climate over the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Abstract During spring 2011, an extreme flood occurred along the Richelieu River located in southern Quebec, Canada. The Richelieu River is the last section of the complex Richelieu basin, which is composed of the large Lake Champlain located in a valley between two large mountains. Previous attempts in reproducing the Richelieu River flow relied on the use of simplified lumped models and showed mixed results. In order to prepare a tool to assess accurately the change of flood recurrences in the future, a state‐of‐the‐art distributed hydrological model was applied over the Richelieu basin. The model setup comprises several novel methods and data sets such as a very high resolution river network, a modern calibration technique considering the net basin supply of Lake Champlain, a new optimization algorithm, and the use of an up‐to‐date meteorological data set to force the model. The results show that the hydrological model is able to satisfactorily reproduce the multiyear mean annual hydrograph and the 2011 flow time series when compared with the observed river flow and an estimation of the Lake Champlain net basin supply. Many factors, such as the quality of the meteorological forcing data, that are affected by the low density of the station network, the steep terrain, and the lake storage effect challenged the simulation of the river flow. Overall, the satisfactory validation of the hydrological model allows to move to the next step, which consists in assessing the impacts of climate change on the recurrence of Richelieu River floods.

[1] Much understanding of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been obtained from the analyses of the climate simulations produced for World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). However, most of these analyses do not consider the existence of the Eastern-Pacific (EP) and Central-Pacific (CP) types of ENSO events, which have been increasingly recognized as two distinct types of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variation in the tropical Pacific. This study uses a regression-Empirical Orthogonal Function method to identify how well these two ENSO types are captured in the pre-industrial simulations of nineteen CMIP3 models. It is concluded that most CMIP3 models (13 out of 19) can produce realistically strong CP ENSOs, but only a few of them (9 out of 19) can produce realistically strong EP ENSOs. Six models that realistically simulate both the EP and CP ENSOs and their intensity ratio are identified. By separating the SST variability into these two types, it is further revealed that the leading periodicity of the simulated EP ENSO is linearly related to the latitudinal width of SST variability and varies from 1 to 5 years. As for the simulated CP ENSO, its leading periodicity is either 2 or 4 years depending on whether its SST variability is located to the east of the dateline or in the western-Pacific warm pool, respectively. The identification produced in this study offers useful information to further understand the two types of ENSO using the CMIP3 models.

Abstract Regional climate simulations over the continental United States were conducted for the 2011 warm season using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at convection‐permitting resolution (4 km) with two commonly used microphysics parameterizations (Thompson and Morrison). Sensitivities of the simulated mesoscale convective system (MCS) properties and feedbacks to large‐scale environments are systematically examined against high‐resolution geostationary satellite and 3‐D mosaic radar observations. MCS precipitation including precipitation amount, diurnal cycle, and distribution of hourly precipitation intensity are reasonably captured by the two simulations despite significant differences in their simulated MCS properties. In general, the Thompson simulation produces better agreement with observations for MCS upper level cloud shield and precipitation area, convective feature horizontal and vertical extents, and partitioning between convective and stratiform precipitation. More importantly, Thompson simulates more stratiform rainfall, which agrees better with observations and results in top‐heavier heating profiles from robust MCSs compared to Morrison. A stronger dynamical feedback to the large‐scale environment is therefore seen in Thompson, wherein an enhanced mesoscale vortex behind the MCS strengthens the synoptic‐scale trough and promotes advection of cool and dry air into the rear of the MCS region. The latter prolongs the MCS lifetimes in the Thompson relative to the Morrison simulations. Hence, different treatment of cloud microphysics not only alters MCS convective‐scale dynamics but also has significant impacts on their macrophysical properties such as lifetime and precipitation. As long‐lived MCSs produced 2–3 times the amount of rainfall compared to short‐lived ones, cloud microphysics parameterizations have profound impact in simulating extreme precipitation and the hydrologic cycle.

Using a regional climate model (RCM) is generally regarded as a promising approach in researching the climate of the Tibetan Plateau, due to the advantages provided by the high resolutions of these models. Whilst previous studies have focused mostly on individual RCM simulations, here, multiple RCMs from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment are evaluated in simulating surface air temperature and precipitation changes over the Tibetan Plateau using station and gridded observations. The results show the following: (1) All RCMs consistently show similar spatial patterns, but a mean cold (wet) bias in the temperature (precipitation) climatology compared to station observations. The RCMs fail to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation trends, and on average produce greater trends in temperature and smaller trends in precipitation than observed results. The multi-model ensemble overall produces superior trends in both simulated temperature and precipitation relative to individual models. Meanwhile, RegCM4 presents the most reasonable simulated trends among the five RCMs. (2) Considerable dissimilarities are shown in the simulated quantitative results from the different RCMs, which indicates a large model dependency in the simulation of climate over the Tibetan Plateau. This implies that caution may be needed when an individual RCM is used to estimate the amplitude of climate change over the Tibetan Plateau. (3) The temperature (precipitation) in 2016–35, relative to 1986–2005, is projected by the multi-model ensemble to increase by 1.38 ± 0.09 °C (0.8% ± 4.0%) and 1.77 ± 0.28 °C (7.3% ± 2.5%) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The results of this study advance our understanding of the applicability of RCMs in studies of climate change over the Tibetan Plateau from a multiple-RCM perspective.

The impact of climate change on runoff characteristics is investigated for the Upper Tisza basin, in eastern Central Europe. For a reliable estimation of uncertainty, an appropriate stochastic weather generator is embedded into a Monte Carlo cycle capable of generating any large number of independent, equally probable, 100-year-long daily sequences of synthetic data with which a hydrological model is driven in order to obtain the hydrological responses to the meteorological data sequences. According to our results, a decrease of daily average runoff is likely to occur in the future in the Upper Tisza basin, especially in July and August. The occurrence of water levels below the critical low level is estimated to increase between July and October. Level-3 flood warnings are projected to be less frequent in the future; however, they will tend to be more severe than in the historical period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advances in computer technology and increasing usage of computer graphics in a broad field of applications lead to rapidly rising demands regarding size and detail of virtual landscapes. Manually creating huge, realistic looking terrains and populating them densely with assets is an expensive and laborious task. In consequence, (semi-)automatic procedural terrain generation is a popular method to reduce the amount of manual work. However, such methods are usually highly specialized for certain terrain types and especially the procedural generation of landscapes composed of different biomes is a scarcely explored topic. We present a novel system, called AutoBiomes, which is capable of efficiently creating vast terrains with plausible biome distributions and therefore different spatial characteristics. The main idea is to combine several synthetic procedural terrain generation techniques with digital elevation models (DEMs) and a simplified climate simulation. Moreover, we include an easy-to-use asset placement component which creates complex multi-object distributions. Our system relies on a pipeline approach with a major focus on usability. Our results show that our system allows the fast creation of realistic looking terrains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to understand the pure long‐term influence of single mega volcanic eruption (SMVE) of universal significance on global and polar region temperature changes, the AD 1258 Samalas mega volcanic eruption in Indonesia which is the largest eruption over the past millennium is selected as an ideal eruption for simulation study based on Community Earth System Model. Both reconstructions and simulations show that the Northern Hemisphere experienced nearly two decades of strong cooling after the Samalas mega eruption. The significant cooling in the Arctic lasts for 16 years, while the cooling in the Antarctic lasts only 2 years. As the volcanic aerosol gradually disappears, stronger cooling occurs in Arctic winter, and warming occurs in Antarctic winter. This asymmetric temperature changes over Arctic and Antarctic after SMVE (such as Samalas) are caused by the combined effects of albedo feedback and ocean‐atmosphere heat exchange related to sea ice. Plain Language Summary: Polar climate is the focus of earth system investigation because they are very sensitive to external forcings and its related impacts on global climate. Volcanic eruption is one of the important external factors affecting global and polar climate change. The AD 1258 Samalas mega volcanic eruption in Indonesia was the largest eruption over the past millennium, which makes it an ideal eruption to study pure long‐term climatic effects of single mega volcanic eruption (SMVE). Here, we use an Earth System Model and find that the duration of surface cooling caused by SMVE (such as Samalas) is longer than we generally believed before and varies in latitude. The Northern Hemisphere experienced nearly two decades of strong cooling after the Samalas event. The significant cooling in the Arctic lasts for 16 years, while the cooling in the Antarctic lasts only 2 years. The SMVE (such as Samalas) could expand Arctic sea ice for more than two decades, but the expansion of Antarctic sea ice lasts only 2–3 years. The asymmetric temperature changes over polar regions are influenced by the combined effects of albedo feedback and ocean‐atmosphere heat exchange related to sea ice. The knowledge gained from this research is critical for improved understanding of the potential long‐term impacts of SMVE on the projected future global and polar region temperature change. Key Points: Both reconstructions and simulations show that the NH experienced nearly two decades of strong cooling after the Samalas mega eruptionA single mega volcanic eruption will cause remarkable asymmetry of temperature variation and duration between the Arctic and AntarcticAsymmetric temperature changes are caused by the combined effects of albedo feedback and ocean‐atmosphere heat exchange related to sea ice [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Five 50-year simulations for the 5th version of the climate model of the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Science (INM RAS), are used to analyze the interannual variability of Arctic stratospheric polar vortex and dates of spring breakup events (springtime transition) in comparison with reanalysis data. Early spring breakup events are accompanied by stronger wave activity in comparison with late ones. Winter seasons with the maximal air volume in the polar stratosphere and conditions sufficient for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds are characterized by relatively early spring breakup events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During spring 2011, an extreme flood occurred along the Richelieu River located in southern Quebec, Canada. The Richelieu River is the last section of the complex Richelieu basin, which is composed of the large Lake Champlain located in a valley between two large mountains. Previous attempts in reproducing the Richelieu River flow relied on the use of simplified lumped models and showed mixed results. In order to prepare a tool to assess accurately the change of flood recurrences in the future, a state‐of‐the‐art distributed hydrological model was applied over the Richelieu basin. The model setup comprises several novel methods and data sets such as a very high resolution river network, a modern calibration technique considering the net basin supply of Lake Champlain, a new optimization algorithm, and the use of an up‐to‐date meteorological data set to force the model. The results show that the hydrological model is able to satisfactorily reproduce the multiyear mean annual hydrograph and the 2011 flow time series when compared with the observed river flow and an estimation of the Lake Champlain net basin supply. Many factors, such as the quality of the meteorological forcing data, that are affected by the low density of the station network, the steep terrain, and the lake storage effect challenged the simulation of the river flow. Overall, the satisfactory validation of the hydrological model allows to move to the next step, which consists in assessing the impacts of climate change on the recurrence of Richelieu River floods. Plain Language Summary: In order to study the 2011 Richelieu flood and prepare a tool capable of estimating the effects of climate change on the recurrence of floods, a hydrological model is applied over the Richelieu basin. The application of a distributed hydrological model is useful to simulate the flow of all the tributaries of the Richelieu basin. This new model setup stands out from past models due to its distribution in several hydrological units, its high‐resolution river network, the calibration technique, and the high‐resolution weather forcing data set used to drive the model. The model successfully reproduced the 2011 Richelieu River flood and the annual hydrograph. The simulation of the Richelieu flow was challenging due to the contrasted elevation of the Richelieu basin and the presence of the large Lake Champlain that acts as a reservoir and attenuates short‐term fluctuations. Overall, the application was deemed satisfactory, and the tool is ready to assess the impacts of climate change on the recurrence of Richelieu River floods. Key Points: An advanced high‐resolution distributed hydrological model is applied over a U.S.‐Canada transboundary basinThe simulated net basin supply of Lake Champlain and the Richelieu River discharge are in good agreement with observations of the 2011 floodThe flow simulation is challenging due to the topographic and meteorological complexities of the basin and uncertainties in the observations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extratropical cyclones, major contributors to precipitation in the midlatitudes, comprise mesoscale fronts and fine‐scale convective storms. Intense oceanic cyclones pose natural hazards, making reliable projections of their changes with global warming of great interest. Here, we analyze the first ever global climate simulations to resolve such mesoscale dynamics of extratropical cyclones. The present‐day structure, frequency, and precipitation of the oceanic extratropical cyclones compare well with reanalyses and new satellite datasets that resolve the multiscale cloud‐precipitation system. Simulated precipitation from intense oceanic cyclones increases at a rate of 7%/K1, following Clausius‐Clapeyron, with warming. The same scaling is apparent also in the interhemispheric contrast, suggesting that the latter could serve as a predictor of the former. Projected changes in precipitation from intense oceanic cyclones with warming may thus be testable using a reliable global observation network of precipitation in the present day. Plain Language Summary: Precipitation in midlatitudes is strongly governed by extratropical cyclones. Its future change is of great societal concern for adaptation to a warmer world. In this study, we use a new kind of global model and a new satellite dataset to resolve fine‐scale and frontal features of cyclones and their changes with warming. The simulation shows that the amount of precipitation around the intense oceanic cyclones will increase due to global warming, and furthermore, the rate of precipitation change around the intense oceanic cyclones is closely related to the precipitation contrast between the northern and southern hemispheres in the present climate. This suggests that the future precipitation change associated with intense oceanic cyclones could be inferred from the difference between the northern and southern hemispheres in the present climate. Key Points: The first global climate simulations to explicitly represent the mesoscale dynamics of extratropical cyclones are analyzedPrecipitation from intense cyclones scales with temperatures across hemispheres and with global warming following Clausius‐ClapeyronProjected change in precipitation from intense cyclones may thus be testable using global observations of precipitation in the present day [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of atmospheric chemistry-climate interactions is one of today's great computational challenges. Advances in the architecture of Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) in both raw computational power and memory bandwidth sparked the interest for General-Purpose computing on graphics accelerators in scientific applications. However, the introduction of GPUs in the High Performance Computing (HPC) landscape increased the complexity of software development, due to the inherent heterogeneity requirements of programming models and design approaches, creating a gap in uptake and attainable performance in the presently available scientific community codes. This paper provides an overview of the challenges encountered when using GPU accelerators to achieve optimal performance to calculate the kinetics of chemical tracers in climate models, the techniques used to address them and the insights gained from the process. The paper presents the development of a chemical kinetics code-to-code parser to automatically generate chemical kinetics calculations on three different generations of GPU accelerators (M2070, K80, and P100). The accelerated portion of the application achieves a speedup of up to 22×, equivalent to performance gains of +19 percent up to +90 percent compared with the processor-only version, when using a cluster of 8 Nodes with dual Intel E5-2680 v3 processor and a Kepler architecture (K80), allowing faster completion of the simulations. The paper also provides practical insights and relevant considerations for the development and acceleration of complex applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A subgrid parametrization scheme representing the enhancement of precipitation due to subgrid orography via the seeder–feeder (SF) effect has been modified to account for flow blocking in small Froude number situations. The scheme was validated in a set of limited‐area model simulations with a 1.5 km grid spacing, in which the orography was degraded by varying amounts. For simulations in which the largest orographic scales are still fairly well represented, the SF scheme was able to reduce the precipitation deficit by 30 to 70%. For simulations where the hills were completely subgrid, the SF scheme was still able to reduce the precipitation deficit by 10 to 30%. As well as increasing the integrated precipitation in global simulations with various grid spacings, some of the precipitation production was shifted from the convection scheme, with its very simple microphysical representation, to the microphysics scheme. In a long‐duration climate simulation, the SF scheme enhancements of orographic precipitation perturb the large‐scale hydrological cycle, as evidenced by the far‐field changes in both microphysical and convective precipitation. Changes over major mountain ranges were similar to those described for the case‐studies, so long as the upstream precipitation impinging on the mountains was not reduced by these changes in the global hydrological cycle. Increased atmospheric drying reduces column‐integrated resolved cloud water mixing ratios over mountains, reducing a positive bias in the amount of optically thick cloud with low‐ to mid‐level tops compared to ISCCP satellite observations. The associated reductions in cloud albedo slightly reduced the RMS error in the top‐of‐atmosphere outgoing short‐wave radiative fluxes over mountains compared to CERES satellite observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can significantly modulate surface hydrological processes through the extreme precipitation they produce. However, there is a lack of comprehensive evaluation of ARs' impact on surface hydrology. This study uses a high‐resolution regional climate simulation to quantify the impact of ARs on surface hydrological processes across the western U.S. watersheds. The model performance is evaluated through extensive comparison against observations. Our analysis indicates that ARs produce heavy precipitation but suppress evapotranspiration. Snowpack ablates more during ARs, with higher air temperature and increased longwave radiation playing the primary and secondary roles, respectively. At the 0 °C to 10 °C temperature range, ARs increase the probability of snow ablation from 0.33 to 0.57. The runoff‐to‐precipitation ratio is primarily controlled by antecedent soil moisture, but it almost doubles in the northwestern watersheds due to the intensification of snow ablation during AR events. From the analysis of the relationship between the hydrological responses and different meteorological factors, precipitation, temperature, and radiation are identified as the key drivers that distinguish the hydrologic responses between AR and non‐AR events. Lastly, analysis of ARs and total runoff at annual scale and 1 April snowpack and winter precipitation shows that ARs explain 30% to 60% of the variability of annual total runoff and sharpen the seasonality of water resources availability in the west coast mountain watersheds. Key Points: AR events intensify snow ablation and nearly double the runoff magnitude response to precipitation compared to non‐AR eventsAR events modulate temperature and radiation and induce rain‐on‐snow, which contributes 25% of runoff volume when snowpack existsARs explain 30% to 60% of the interannual variance and sharpen the seasonality of water resources in the west coast mountain watersheds [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monsoon and arid regions in the Asia-Africa-Australia (A-A-A) realm occupy more than 60% of the total area of these continents. Geological evidence showed that significant changes occurred to the A-A-A environments of the monsoon and arid regions, the land-ocean configuration in the Eastern Hemisphere, and the topography of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in the Cenozoic. Motivated by this background, numerical experiments for 5 typical geological periods during the Cenozoic were conducted using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to systemically explore the formations and evolutionary histories of the Cenozoic A-A-A monsoon and arid regions under the influences of continental drift and plateau uplift. Results of the numerical experiments indicate that the timings and causes of the formations of monsoon and arid regions in the A-A-A realm were very different. The northern and southern African monsoons existed during the mid-Paleocene, while the South Asian monsoon appeared in the Eocene after the Indian Subcontinent moved into the tropical Northern Hemisphere. In contrast, the East Asian monsoon and northern Australian monsoon were established much later in the Miocene. The establishment of the tropical monsoons in northern and southern Africa, South Asia, and Australia were determined by both the continental drift and seasonal migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), while the position and height of the TP were the key factor for the establishment of the East Asian monsoon. The presence of the subtropical arid regions in northern and southern Africa, Asia, and Australia depended on the positions of the continents and the control of the planetary scale subtropical high pressure zones, while the arid regions in the Arabian Peninsula and West Asia were closely related to the retreat of the Paratethys Sea. The formation of the mid-latitude arid region in the Asian interior, on the other hand, was the consequence of the uplift of the TP. These results from this study provide insight to the important roles played by the earth's tectonic boundary conditions in the formations and evolutions of regional climates during geological times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the climate change during the boring billion era in the history of Earth's deep-time evolution

We assess the effect of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on the global monsoon using idealized simulations. Warm AMV phases are associated with a significant strengthening of monsoon precipitation over Northern Africa and India, and anomalously weak monsoon precipitation over South America. Changes in monsoon precipitation are mediated by a change in atmospheric dynamics, primarily associated with a shift in the circulation related to both an enhanced interhemispheric thermal contrast and the remote impact of AMV on the Pacific Ocean, through changes in the Walker circulation. In contrast, the thermodynamic changes are less important. Further experiments show that the impact of AMV is largely due to the tropical component of the sea surface temperature anomalies. However, the extratropical Atlantic also plays a role, especially for northern Africa. Finally, we show that the effect of AMV on monsoons is not linearly related to the magnitude of warming. Plain Language Summary: Global monsoon precipitation variability has substantial effects on about two thirds of the world's population. Therefore, understanding the factors that drive tropical precipitation is societally important. Here we focus on the effect of North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NASST) variability on global monsoon. To do so we use a set of climate model experiments, in which we add a surface temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic Ocean. The novelty of the analysis relies on the decomposition of precipitation changes to understand better their origins. We find that NASST changes have strong impacts on Sahel and Indian summer precipitation and monsoon domain sizes, through shifting northward the atmospheric patterns of moisture convergence. Changes involve increases in the large‐scale warming of the Northern Hemisphere and forcing of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature. We highlight the tropical Atlantic basin as critical to explain the effects of NASST variability over the global monsoon. We found that changes in monsoon precipitation are sensitive to the magnitude of the NASST warming. Key Points: Changes in atmospheric circulation dominate the AMV effect on monsoons, while thermodynamic changes are moderateThe tropical North Atlantic largely forces AMV effects, by strengthening interhemispheric thermal gradients and the Walker circulationThe effects of AMV are not linearly related to the magnitude of warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study compares the interannual variance of boreal winter near-surface temperature (DJF T2m) with and without performing single model ensemble (SME) in seasonal hindcasts (DEMETER, ENSEMBLES, and NCEP CFSv2) and historical climate simulations (CMIP5). The results demonstrate that the extratropical temperature variability is significantly reduced after performing SME even though the signal in the tropical Pacific remains strong. Cancellation between positive and negative perturbations simulated by individual model members, of both tropical and extratropical origins, leads to the under-simulation. The atmospheric circulation induced by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature is not well represented in global climate models and the simulation is further deteriorated by SME, leading to an unrealistically weak interannual variance of simulated winter temperature in North America. Similar effect was also found in North Eurasia where winter temperature is strongly influenced by atmospheric internal variability and its interaction with land and ice/snow in the middle-high latitudes. The SME procedure should be avoided when evaluating the model performance in simulating the higher-order long-term statistics (such as variance). Variance of individual models should be calculated first and then averaged among members. Models used in seasonal forecast and long-term climate simulation already have good capability in simulating the long-term statistics of stochastic processes in the extratropics, although the capability in accurately simulating the temporal variation is still poor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]