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Background Prognostic markers and biological pathways linked to detrimental clinical outcomes in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) remain incompletely defined. Methods and Results We measured serum levels of 4123 unique proteins in 1117 patients with HFpEF enrolled in the PARAGON‐HF (Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 Compared to Valsartan, on Morbidity and Mortality in Heart Failure Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction) trial using a modified aptamer proteomic assay. Baseline circulating protein concentrations significantly associated with the primary end point and the timing and occurrence of total heart failure hospitalization and cardiovascular death were identified by recurrent events regression, accounting for multiple testing, adjusted for age, sex, treatment, and anticoagulant use, and compared with published analyses in 2515 patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction from the PARADIGM‐HF (Prospective Comparison of ARNI With ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure) and ATMOSPHERE (Efficacy and Safety of Aliskiren and Aliskiren/Enalapril Combination on Morbidity–Mortality in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure) clinical trials. We identified 288 proteins that were robustly associated with the risk of heart failure hospitalization and cardiovascular death in patients with HFpEF. The baseline proteins most strongly related to outcomes included B2M (β‐2 microglobulin), TIMP1 (tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase 1), SERPINA4 (serpin family A member 4), and SVEP1 (sushi, von Willebrand factor type A, EGF, and pentraxin domain containing 1). Overall, the protein–outcome associations in patients with HFpEF did not markedly differ as compared with patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. A proteomic risk score derived in patients with HFpEF was not superior to a previous proteomic score derived in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction nor to clinical risk factors, NT‐proBNP (N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide), or high‐sensitivity cardiac troponin. Conclusions Numerous serum proteins linked to metabolic, coagulation, and extracellular matrix regulatory pathways were associated with worse HFpEF prognosis in the PARAGON‐HF proteomic substudy. Our results demonstrate substantial similarities among serum proteomic risk markers for heart failure hospitalization and cardiovascular death when comparing clinical trial participants with heart failure across the ejection fraction spectrum. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique Identifiers: NCT01920711, NCT01035255, NCT00853658.

Abstract Resting heart rate is associated with cardiovascular diseases and mortality in observational and Mendelian randomization studies. The aims of this study are to extend the number of resting heart rate associated genetic variants and to obtain further insights in resting heart rate biology and its clinical consequences. A genome-wide meta-analysis of 100 studies in up to 835,465 individuals reveals 493 independent genetic variants in 352 loci, including 68 genetic variants outside previously identified resting heart rate associated loci. We prioritize 670 genes and in silico annotations point to their enrichment in cardiomyocytes and provide insights in their ECG signature. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses indicate that higher genetically predicted resting heart rate increases risk of dilated cardiomyopathy, but decreases risk of developing atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, and cardio-embolic stroke. We do not find evidence for a linear or non-linear genetic association between resting heart rate and all-cause mortality in contrast to our previous Mendelian randomization study. Systematic alteration of key differences between the current and previous Mendelian randomization study indicates that the most likely cause of the discrepancy between these studies arises from false positive findings in previous one-sample MR analyses caused by weak-instrument bias at lower P-value thresholds. The results extend our understanding of resting heart rate biology and give additional insights in its role in cardiovascular disease development.

Summary: While lipid traits are known essential mediators of cardiovascular disease, few approaches have taken advantage of their shared genetic effects. We apply a Bayesian multivariate size estimator, mash, to GWAS of four lipid traits in the Million Veterans Program (MVP) and provide posterior mean and local false sign rates for all effects. These estimates borrow information across traits to improve effect size accuracy. We show that controlling local false sign rates accurately and powerfully identifies replicable genetic associations and that multivariate control furthers the ability to explain complex diseases. Our application yields high concordance between independent datasets, more accurately prioritizes causal genes, and significantly improves polygenic prediction beyond state-of-the-art methods by up to 59% for lipid traits. The use of Bayesian multivariate genetic shrinkage has yet to be applied to human quantitative trait GWAS results, and we present a staged approach to prediction on a polygenic scale.

Abstract Background Genetic variants within nearly 1000 loci are known to contribute to modulation of blood lipid levels. However, the biological pathways underlying these associations are frequently unknown, limiting understanding of these findings and hindering downstream translational efforts such as drug target discovery. Results To expand our understanding of the underlying biological pathways and mechanisms controlling blood lipid levels, we leverage a large multi-ancestry meta-analysis (N = 1,654,960) of blood lipids to prioritize putative causal genes for 2286 lipid associations using six gene prediction approaches. Using phenome-wide association (PheWAS) scans, we identify relationships of genetically predicted lipid levels to other diseases and conditions. We confirm known pleiotropic associations with cardiovascular phenotypes and determine novel associations, notably with cholelithiasis risk. We perform sex-stratified GWAS meta-analysis of lipid levels and show that 3–5% of autosomal lipid-associated loci demonstrate sex-biased effects. Finally, we report 21 novel lipid loci identified on the X chromosome. Many of the sex-biased autosomal and X chromosome lipid loci show pleiotropic associations with sex hormones, emphasizing the role of hormone regulation in lipid metabolism. Conclusions Taken together, our findings provide insights into the biological mechanisms through which associated variants lead to altered lipid levels and potentially cardiovascular disease risk.

Elevated body mass index is heritable and associated with many health conditions that impact morbidity and mortality. Here, the authors identify greater than 900 genetic loci for body mass index (BMI) and find over 300 diagnoses associated with increasing BMI.

While the genetic basis of heart failure has been explored by genetic studies, the differences between subtypes are not well understood. Here, the authors performed genetic analyses on the two major subtypes of heart failure in a large biobank with genetic and health record data, finding unique genetic architecture for each subtype.

Study objective: Aortic arch geometry changes with age, including an increase in aortic arch width (AAW). High AAW is a predictor of incident adverse cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, but its distribution and determinants are unknown. We hypothesized that traditional CVD risk factors, in addition to age, are associated with increased AAW in community-dwelling adults. Study design: Framingham Offspring and Third Generation cohort participants (N = 3026, 52 % men) underwent thoracic multidetector computed tomography (MDCT). A referent group (733M, 738W) free of clinical CVD, hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking, and diabetes was used to generate sex and 10-year age-group specific upper 90th percentile (P90) cut-points for AAW. AAW was measured as the distance between the cross-sectional centroids of the ascending and descending thoracic aorta. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify clinical correlates of high AAW (≥referent P90) in the overall study group. Results: Among referent participants, AAW increased with greater age-group, p for trend

Background Stiffness of the proximal aorta may play a critical role in adverse left ventricular (LV)–vascular interactions and associated LV diastolic dysfunction. In a community‐based sample, we sought to determine the association between proximal aortic stiffness measured by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) and several clinical measures of LV diastolic mechanics. Methods and Results Framingham Heart Study Offspring adults (n=1502 participants, mean 67±9 years, 54% women) with available 1.5T CMR and transthoracic echocardiographic measures were included. Measures included proximal descending aortic strain and aortic arch pulse wave velocity by CMR (2002–2006) and diastolic function (mitral Doppler E and A wave velocity, E wave area, and LV tissue Doppler e' velocity) by echocardiography (2005–2008). Multivariable linear regression analysis was used to relate CMR aortic stiffness measures to measures of echocardiographic LV diastolic function. All continuous variables were standardized. In multivariable‐adjusted regression analyses, aortic strain was inversely associated with E wave deceleration time (estimated β=−0.10±0.032, P=0.001), whereas aortic arch pulse wave velocity was inversely associated with E/A ratio (estimated β=−0.094±0.027, P=0.0006), E wave area (estimated β=−0.070±0.027, P=0.010), and e' (estimated β=−0.061±0.027, P=0.022), all indicating associations of higher aortic stiffness by CMR with less favorable LV diastolic function. Compared with men, women had a larger inverse relationship between pulse wave velocity and E/A ratio (interaction β=−0.085±0.031, P=0.0064). There was no significant effect modification by age or a U‐shaped (quadratic) relation between aortic stiffness and LV diastolic function measures. Conclusions Higher proximal aortic stiffness is associated with less favorable LV diastolic function. Future studies may clarify temporal relations of aortic stiffness with varying patterns and progression of LV diastolic dysfunction.

Despite being studied in clinical trials, CETP inhibitors are not yet an approved treatment for coronary heart disease. Here, by analyzing results from clinical trials and drug target mendelian randomization studies, the authors demonstrate that previous failure of CETP inhibitors are likely compound and not drug target-related.

Identifying causal variants and genes in genome-wide association studies remains a challenge, an issue that is ameliorated with larger sample sizes. Here the authors meta-analyze kidney function genome-wide association studies to identify new loci and fine-map loci to home in on variants and genes involved in kidney function.

Penetrance of variants in monogenic disease and clinical utility of common polygenic variation has not been well explored on a large-scale. Here, the authors use exome sequencing data from 77,184 individuals to generate penetrance estimates and assess the utility of polygenic variation in risk prediction of monogenic variants.

Plasma levels of liver enzymes provide insights into hepatic function and related diseases. Here, the authors perform a genome-wide association study on three liver enzymes, identifying genetic variants associated with their plasma concentration as well as links to metabolic and cardiovascular diseases.

Background Height has been associated with many clinical traits but whether such associations are causal versus secondary to confounding remains unclear in many cases. To systematically examine this question, we performed a Mendelian Randomization-Phenome-wide association study (MR-PheWAS) using clinical and genetic data from a national healthcare system biobank. Methods and findings Analyses were performed using data from the US Veterans Affairs (VA) Million Veteran Program in non-Hispanic White (EA, n = 222,300) and non-Hispanic Black (AA, n = 58,151) adults in the US. We estimated height genetic risk based on 3290 height-associated variants from a recent European-ancestry genome-wide meta-analysis. We compared associations of measured and genetically-predicted height with phenome-wide traits derived from the VA electronic health record, adjusting for age, sex, and genetic principal components. We found 345 clinical traits associated with measured height in EA and an additional 17 in AA. Of these, 127 were associated with genetically-predicted height at phenome-wide significance in EA and 2 in AA. These associations were largely independent from body mass index. We confirmed several previously described MR associations between height and cardiovascular disease traits such as hypertension, hyperlipidemia, coronary heart disease (CHD), and atrial fibrillation, and further uncovered MR associations with venous circulatory disorders and peripheral neuropathy in the presence and absence of diabetes. As a number of traits associated with genetically-predicted height frequently co-occur with CHD, we evaluated effect modification by CHD status of genetically-predicted height associations with risk factors for and complications of CHD. We found modification of effects of MR associations by CHD status for atrial fibrillation/flutter but not for hypertension, hyperlipidemia, or venous circulatory disorders. Conclusions We conclude that height may be an unrecognized but biologically plausible risk factor for several common conditions in adults. However, more studies are needed to reliably exclude horizontal pleiotropy as a driving force behind at least some of the MR associations observed in this study. Author summary Adult height has been associated with several clinical traits, for example with increased risk of atrial fibrillation and with decreased risk of cardiovascular disease. Using data from the VA Million Veteran Program that includes genetic data linked to clinical records in >200,000 non-Hispanic White adults and >50,000 non-Hispanic Black adults, we examined associations of measured height and genetically-predicted height with clinical traits phenome-wide. By comparing associations of traits with measured and with genetically-predicted height, we aimed to discriminate between potentially causal associations (those associated with genetically-predicted height) from associations that may be confounded by environmental exposures over the life course (those associated with measured height but not with genetically-predicted height). Of approximately 350 traits associated with measured height, we found 127 associated with genetically-predicted height in non-Hispanic White individuals. While only 2 were also statistically significant in non-Hispanic Black individuals, we found evidence for consistent directions of effect for associations of traits with genetically-predicted height in non-Hispanic Black and White individuals. We conclude that height may be an unrecognized non-modifiable risk factor for several common conditions in adults.

Abstract Background Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a noninvasive measure of coronary atherosclerosis, the proximal pathophysiology underlying most cases of myocardial infarction (MI). We sought to identify expression signatures of early MI and subclinical atherosclerosis in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS). In this study, we conducted paired-end RNA sequencing on whole blood collected from 198 FHS participants (55 with a history of early MI, 72 with high CAC without prior MI, and 71 controls free of elevated CAC levels or history of MI). We applied DESeq2 to identify coding-genes and long intergenic noncoding RNAs (lincRNAs) differentially expressed in MI and high CAC, respectively, compared with the control. Results On average, 150 million paired-end reads were obtained for each sample. At the false discovery rate (FDR)

Although affecting different arterial territories, the related atherosclerotic vascular diseases coronary artery disease (CAD) and peripheral artery disease (PAD) share similar risk factors and have shared pathobiology. To identify novel pleiotropic loci associated with atherosclerosis, we performed a joint analysis of their shared genetic architecture, along with that of common risk factors. Using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies of nine known atherosclerotic (CAD, PAD) and atherosclerosis risk factors (body mass index, smoking initiation, type 2 diabetes, low density lipoprotein, high density lipoprotein, total cholesterol, and triglycerides), we perform 15 separate multi-trait genetic association scans which resulted in 25 novel pleiotropic loci not yet reported as genome-wide significant for their respective traits. Colocalization with single-tissue eQTLs identified candidate causal genes at 14 of the detected signals. Notably, the signal between PAD and LDL-C at the PCSK6 locus affects PCSK6 splicing in human liver tissue and induced pluripotent derived hepatocyte-like cells. These results show that joint analysis of related atherosclerotic disease traits and their risk factors allowed identification of unified biology that may offer the opportunity for therapeutic manipulation. The signal at PCSK6 represent possible shared causal biology where existing inhibitors may be able to be leveraged for novel therapies.

SARS-CoV-2 has caused symptomatic COVID-19 and widespread death across the globe. We sought to determine genetic variants contributing to COVID-19 susceptibility and hospitalization in a large biobank linked to a national United States health system. We identified 19,168 (3.7%) lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases among Million Veteran Program participants between March 1, 2020, and February 2, 2021, including 11,778 Whites, 4,893 Blacks, and 2,497 Hispanics. A multi-population genome-wide association study (GWAS) for COVID-19 outcomes identified four independent genetic variants (rs8176719, rs73062389, rs60870724, and rs73910904) contributing to COVID-19 positivity, including one novel locus found exclusively among Hispanics. We replicated eight of nine previously reported genetic associations at an alpha of 0.05 in at least one population-specific or the multi-population meta-analysis for one of the four MVP COVID-19 outcomes. We used rs8176719 and three additional variants to accurately infer ABO blood types. We found that A, AB, and B blood types were associated with testing positive for COVID-19 compared with O blood type with the highest risk for the A blood group. We did not observe any genome-wide significant associations for COVID-19 severity outcomes among those testing positive. Our study replicates prior GWAS findings associated with testing positive for COVID-19 among mostly White samples and extends findings at three loci to Black and Hispanic individuals. We also report a new locus among Hispanics requiring further investigation. These findings may aid in the identification of novel therapeutic agents to decrease the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 across all major ancestral populations.

Background Genetic studies may help identify causal pathways; therefore, we sought to identify genetic determinants of ideal CVH and their association with CVD outcomes in the multi-population Veteran Administration Million Veteran Program. Methods An ideal health score (IHS) was calculated from 3 clinical factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, and blood glucose levels) and 3 behavioral factors (smoking status, physical activity, and BMI), ascertained at baseline. Multi-population genome-wide association study (GWAS) was performed on IHS and binary ideal health using linear and logistic regression, respectively. Using the genome-wide significant SNPs from the IHS GWAS, we created a weighted IHS polygenic risk score (PRSIHS) which was used (i) to conduct a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) of associations between PRSIHS and ICD-9 phenotypes and (ii) to further test for associations with mortality and selected CVD outcomes using logistic and Cox regression and, as an instrumental variable, in Mendelian Randomization. Results The discovery and replication cohorts consisted of 142,404 (119,129 European American (EUR); 16,495 African American (AFR)), and 45,766 (37,646 EUR; 5,366 AFR) participants, respectively. The mean age was 65.8 years (SD = 11.2) and 92.7% were male. Overall, 4.2% exhibited ideal CVH based on the clinical and behavioral factors. In the multi-population meta-analysis, variants at 17 loci were associated with IHS and each had known GWAS associations with multiple components of the IHS. PheWAS analysis in 456,026 participants showed that increased PRSIHS was associated with a lower odds ratio for many CVD outcomes and risk factors. Both IHS and PRSIHS measures of ideal CVH were associated with significantly less CVD outcomes and CVD mortality. Conclusion A set of high interest genetic variants contribute to the presence of ideal CVH in a multi-ethnic cohort of US Veterans. Genetically influenced ideal CVH is associated with lower odds of CVD outcomes and mortality.

Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) is a cause of myocardial infarction Here, the authors present a genome-wide association study of SCAD, finding an association at 1q21.2 which potentially affects expression of ADAMTSL4.

Summary: Aberrant NOTCH3 signaling and overexpression is oncogenic, associated with cancer stem cells and drug resistance, yet therapeutic targeting remains elusive. Here, we develop NOTCH3-targeted antibody drug conjugates (NOTCH3-ADCs) by bioconjugation of an auristatin microtubule inhibitor through a protease cleavable linker to two antibodies with differential abilities to inhibit signaling. The signaling inhibitory antibody rapidly induces ligand-independent receptor clustering and internalization through both caveolin and clathrin-mediated pathways. The non-inhibitory antibody also efficiently endocytoses via clathrin without inducing receptor clustering but with slower lysosomal co-localization kinetics. In addition, DLL4 ligand binding to the NOTCH3 receptor mediates transendocytosis of NOTCH3-ADCs into ligand-expressing cells. NOTCH3-ADCs internalize into receptor and ligand cells independent of signaling and induce cell death in both cell types representing an atypical mechanism of ADC cytotoxicity. Treatment of xenografts with NOTCH3-ADCs leads to sustained tumor regressions, outperforms standard-of-care chemotherapy, and allows targeting of tumors that overexpress NOTCH3 independent of signaling inhibition.

Persistently low levels of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are a biomarker of chronic kidney disease. Here, the authors reinterpret the genetic architecture of kidney function across ancestries, to identify not only genes, but the tissue and anatomical contexts of renal homeostasis.

Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and plaque are associated with subclinical atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease (CHD). Here, the authors identify and prioritize genetic loci for cIMT and plaque by GWAS and colocalization approaches and further demonstrate genetic correlation with CHD and stroke.

Abstract Background Left bundle branch block (LBBB) is associated with abnormal left ventricular (LV) contraction, and is frequently associated with co-morbid cardiovascular disease, but the effect of an isolated (i.e. in the absence of cardiovascular dissease) LBBB on biventricular volumes and ejection fraction (EF) is not well characterized. The objective of this study was to compare LV and right ventricular (RV) volumes and EF in adults with an isolated LBBB to matched healthy controls and to population-derived normative values, using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging. Methods We reviewed our clinical echocardiography database and the Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort CMR database to identify adults with an isolated LBBB. Age-, sex-, hypertension-status, and body-surface area (BSA)-matched controls were identified from the Offspring cohort. All study subjects were scanned using the same CMR hardware and imaging sequence. Isolated-LBBB cases were compared with matched controls using Wilcoxon paired signed-rank test, and to normative reference values via Z-score. Results Isolated-LBBB subjects (n = 18, 10F) ranged in age from 37 to 82 years. An isolated LBBB was associated with larger LV end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes (both p

Abstract National and international public–private partnerships, consortia, and government initiatives are underway to collect and share genomic, personal, and healthcare data on a massive scale. Ideally, these efforts will contribute to the creation of a medical information commons (MIC), a comprehensive data resource that is widely available for both research and clinical uses. Stakeholder participation is essential in clarifying goals, deepening understanding of areas of complexity, and addressing long-standing policy concerns such as privacy and security and data ownership. This article describes eight core principles proposed by a diverse group of expert stakeholders to guide the formation of a successful, sustainable MIC. These principles promote formation of an ethically sound, inclusive, participant-centric MIC and provide a framework for advancing the policy response to data-sharing opportunities and challenges.

Several GWAS have identified many common variants associated with blood metabolites. Here, the authors use an exome array to identify low frequency, potentially functional variants that impact human metabolism.

Background We sought to determine whether increased aortic arch width (AAW) adds to standard Framingham risk factors and coronary artery calcium (CAC) for prediction of incident adverse cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in community‐dwelling adults. Methods and Results A total of 3026 Framingham Heart Study Offspring and Third Generation cohort participants underwent noncontrast multidetector computed tomography from 2002 to 2005 to quantify CAC. We measured AAW as the distance between the centroids of the ascending and descending thoracic aorta, at the level of main pulmonary artery bifurcation or the right pulmonary artery. We determined sex, age group, and body size specific cut points for high (≥90th percentile) AAW from a healthy referent group (N=1471) and dichotomized AAW as high or not high across all study participants. Clinical covariates were obtained at Offspring cycle 7 (1998–2001) or Third Generation cycle 1 (2002–2005) examinations. The primary CVD outcome was a composite of myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, cerebrovascular accident, first hospitalization for heart failure, or CVD death. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratio of high AAW on time‐to‐incident CVD after adjustment for Framingham risk factors and CAC. Net reclassification improvement was used to assess the effect of adding AAW to the baseline Framingham risk factor+CAC model. A total of 2826 participants (aged 51±11 years, 48% women) had complete covariates and were free of CVD at multidetector computed tomography. Over a median 8.9 years of follow‐up, there were 135 incident CVD events. High AAW was independently predictive of CVD events (hazard ratio, 1.55; P=0.032) and appropriately reclassified participants at risk: net reclassification improvement, 0.31 (95% confidence interval, 0.15–0.48). Conclusion AAW augments traditional CVD risk factors and CAC for prediction of incident adverse CVD events among community‐dwelling adults.

BackgroundPlatelet function is associated with adverse events in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods and ResultsWe examined associations of baseline platelet function with incident CVD events in the community‐based FHS (Framingham Heart Study). Participants free of prevalent CVD and without recent aspirin treatment with available data in the Framingham Offspring cohort (1991–1995) and Omni cohort (1994–1998) were included. Platelet function was measured with light transmission aggregometry using collagen (1.9 μg/mL), ADP (0.05–15 μmol/L), and epinephrine (0.01–15 μmol/L). We used proportional hazards models to analyze incident outcomes (myocardial infarction/stroke, CVD, and CVD mortality) with respect to platelet measures. The study sample included 2831 participants (average age, 54.3 years; 57% women). During follow‐up (median, 20.4 years), we observed 191 composite incident myocardial infarction or stroke events, 432 incident CVD cases, and 117 CVD deaths. Hyperreactivity to ADP and platelet aggregation at ADP concentration of 1.0 μmol/L were significantly associated with incident myocardial infarction/stroke in a multivariable model (hazard ratio, 1.68 [95% confidence interval, 1.13–2.50] [P=0.011] for hyperreactivity across ADP doses; and hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% confidence interval, 1.02–1.33] [P=0.029] for highest quartile of ADP response at 1.0 μmol/L versus others). No association was observed for collagen lag time or any epinephrine measures with incident myocardial infarction or stroke. ConclusionsIntrinsic hyperreactivity to low‐dose ADP in our community‐based sample, who were free of CVD and any antiplatelet therapy, is associated with future arterial thrombosis during a 20‐year follow‐up. These findings reinforce ADP activation inhibition as a critical treatment paradigm and encourage further study of ADP inhibitor‐refractive populations.

BackgroundPlasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 (PAI‐1) plays an essential role in the fibrinolysis system and thrombosis. Population studies have reported that blood PAI‐1 levels are associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). However, it is unclear whether the association reflects a causal influence of PAI‐1 on CHD risk. Methods and ResultsTo evaluate the association between PAI‐1 and CHD, we applied a 3‐step strategy. First, we investigated the observational association between PAI‐1 and CHD incidence using a systematic review based on a literature search for PAI‐1 and CHD studies. Second, we explored the causal association between PAI‐1 and CHD using a Mendelian randomization approach using summary statistics from large genome‐wide association studies. Finally, we explored the causal effect of PAI‐1 on cardiovascular risk factors including metabolic and subclinical atherosclerosis measures. In the systematic meta‐analysis, the highest quantile of blood PAI‐1 level was associated with higher CHD risk comparing with the lowest quantile (odds ratio=2.17; 95% CI: 1.53, 3.07) in an age‐ and sex‐adjusted model. The effect size was reduced in studies using a multivariable‐adjusted model (odds ratio=1.46; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.88). The Mendelian randomization analyses suggested a causal effect of increased PAI‐1 level on CHD risk (odds ratio=1.22 per unit increase of log‐transformed PAI‐1; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.47). In addition, we also detected a causal effect of PAI‐1 on elevating blood glucose and high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol. ConclusionsOur study indicates a causal effect of elevated PAI‐1 level on CHD risk, which may be mediated by glucose dysfunction.

BackgroundWe determined whether vascular and valvular calcification predicted incident major coronary heart disease, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all‐cause mortality independent of Framingham risk factors in the community‐based Framingham Heart Study. Methods and ResultsCoronary artery calcium (CAC), thoracic and abdominal aortic calcium, and mitral or aortic valve calcium were measured by cardiac computed tomography in participants free of CVD. Participants were followed for a median of 8 years. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine association of CAC, thoracic and abdominal aortic calcium, and mitral and aortic valve calcium with end points. Improvement in discrimination beyond risk factors was tested via the C‐statistic and net reclassification index. In this cohort of 3486 participants (mean age 50±10 years; 51% female), CAC was most strongly associated with major coronary heart disease, followed by major CVD, and all‐cause mortality independent of Framingham risk factors. Among noncoronary calcifications, mitral valve calcium was associated with major CVD and all‐cause mortality independent of Framingham risk factors and CAC. CAC significantly improved discriminatory value beyond risk factors for coronary heart disease (area under the curve 0.78–0.82; net reclassification index 32%, 95% CI 11–53) but not for CVD. CAC accurately reclassified 85% of the 261 patients who were at intermediate (5–10%) 10‐year risk for coronary heart disease based on Framingham risk factors to either low risk (n=172; no events observed) or high risk (n=53; observed event rate 8%). ConclusionsCAC improves discrimination and risk reclassification for major coronary heart disease and CVD beyond risk factors in asymptomatic community‐dwelling persons and accurately reclassifies two‐thirds of the intermediate‐risk population.

Genetic variation at the apolipoprotein A5 gene (APOA5) is associated with increased triglyceride concentrations, a risk factor for atherosclerosis. Carotid intimal medial thickness (IMT) is a surrogate measure of atherosclerosis burden. We sought to determine the association of common APOA5 genetic variants with carotid IMT and stenosis. A total of 2,273 Framingham Offspring Study participants underwent carotid ultrasound and had data on at least one of the five APOA5 variants (−1131T>C, −3A>G, 56C>G, IVS3+476G >A, and 1259T>C). Although none of the individual variants was significantly associated with carotid measures, the haplotype defined by the presence of the rare allele of the 56C>G variant was associated with a higher common carotid artery (CCA) IMT compared with the wild-type haplotype (0.75 vs. 0.73 mm; P < 0.05). The rare allele of each of the −1131T >C, −3A>G, IVS3+476G>A, and 1259T>C variants and the haplotype defined by the presence of the rare alleles in these four variants were each significantly associated with CCA IMT in obese participants. These associations remained significant even after adjustment for triglycerides. APOA5 variants were associated with CCA IMT, particularly in obese participants. The mechanism of these associations and the effect modification by obesity are independent of fasting triglyceride levels.

The aim of this study was to determine the association between APOE genotype and carotid atherosclerosis, defined as intimal-medial thickness (IMT) and stenosis, and to assess if other cardiovascular risk factors modify this association. A total of 1,315 men and 1,408 women from the Framingham Offspring Study underwent carotid ultrasound during examination cycle 6 and had complete data on APOE genotype. Three APOE genotype groups were defined: APOE2 (including E2/E2, E3/E2 genotypes), APOE3 (E3/E3), and APOE4 (including E4/E3, E4/E4 genotypes). Carotid IMT and the presence of carotid stenosis > 25% were determined by ultrasonography. In women, the APOE2 group was associated with lower carotid IMT (0.67 vs. 0.73 mm) and lower prevalence of stenosis (odds ratio = 0.49; 95% confidence interval = 0.30–0.81) compared with the APOE3 group. In men, APOE genotype was not associated with carotid IMT or stenosis in the whole group; however, diabetes modified the association between APOE genotype and carotid IMT (P for interaction = 0.044). Among men with diabetes, the APOE4 group was associated with a higher internal carotid artery IMT (1.22 mm) than the APOE3 group (0.90 mm) or the APOE2 group (0.84 mm).The E2 allele was associated with lower carotid atherosclerosis in women, and the E4 allele was associated with higher internal carotid IMT in diabetic men.