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1. Quantification of the time-varying epidemic growth rate and of the delays between symptom onset and presenting to healthcare for the mpox epidemic in the UK in 2022

Author

Robert Hinch, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, Thomas Ward, Andre Charlett, Nicholas Watkins, and Christophe Fraser

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

Abstract The mpox epidemic in the UK began in May 2022, with rates of new cases unexpectedly and rapidly declining during August 2022. Interpreting trends in infection requires disentangling the underlying growth rate of cases from the delay from symptom onset to presenting to healthcare. We developed a nowcasting Bayesian method which incorporates time-varying delays (EpiLine) to quantify the changes in the delay from symptom onset to healthcare presentation and the underlying mpox growth rate over the period May-August 2022 in the UK. We show that the mean delay between symptom onset and healthcare presentation for mpox in the UK decreased from 22 days in early May 2022 to 10 days by early June and 8 days in August 2022. When we account for these dynamic delays, the time-varying growth rate declined gradually and continuously in the UK during the May-August 2022 period. Not accounting for varying time delays would have incorrectly characterised the growth rate by a sharp increase followed by a rapid decline in mpox cases. Our results highlight the importance of correctly quantifying the delay between symptom onset to healthcare presentation when characterising the epidemic growth of mpox in the UK. The gradual reduction in the rate of epidemic spread, which pre-dated the vaccine roll-out, is consistent with gradual risk reduction or acquired immunity amongst the highest risk individuals. Our study highlights the need for public health agencies to record the delays from symptom onset to healthcare presentation early in an outbreak.

Published
2024
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2. Estimating the contribution of setting-specific contacts to SARS-CoV-2 transmission using digital contact tracing data

Author

Zengmiao Wang, Peng Yang, Ruixue Wang, Luca Ferretti, Lele Zhao, Shan Pei, Xiaoli Wang, Lei Jia, Daitao Zhang, Yonghong Liu, Ziyan Liu, Quanyi Wang, Christophe Fraser, and Huaiyu Tian

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Abstract While many countries employed digital contact tracing to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the contribution of cospace-time interaction (i.e., individuals who shared the same space and time) to transmission and to super-spreading in the real world has seldom been systematically studied due to the lack of systematic sampling and testing of contacts. To address this issue, we utilized data from 2230 cases and 220,878 contacts with detailed epidemiological information during the Omicron outbreak in Beijing in 2022. We observed that contact number per day of tracing for individuals in dwelling, workplace, cospace-time interactions, and community settings could be described by gamma distribution with distinct parameters. Our findings revealed that 38% of traced transmissions occurred through cospace-time interactions whilst control measures were in place. However, using a mathematical model to incorporate contacts in different locations, we found that without control measures, cospace-time interactions contributed to only 11% (95%CI: 10%–12%) of transmissions and the super-spreading risk for this setting was 4% (95%CI: 3%–5%), both the lowest among all settings studied. These results suggest that public health measures should be optimized to achieve a balance between the benefits of digital contact tracing for cospace-time interactions and the challenges posed by contact tracing within the same setting.

Published
2024
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3. Characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital with and without respiratory symptoms

Author

Barbara Wanjiru Citarella, Christiana Kartsonaki, Elsa D. Ibáñez-Prada, Bronner P. Gonçalves, Joaquin Baruch, Martina Escher, Mark G. Pritchard, Jia Wei, Fred Philippy, Andrew Dagens, Matthew Hall, James Lee, Demetrios James Kutsogiannis, Evert-Jan Wils, Marília Andreia Fernandes, Bharath Kumar Tirupakuzhi Vijayaraghavan, Prasan Kumar Panda, Ignacio Martin-Loeches, Shinichiro Ohshimo, Arie Zainul Fatoni, Peter Horby, Jake Dunning, Jordi Rello, Laura Merson, Amanda Rojek, Michel Vaillant, Piero Olliaro, Luis Felipe Reyes, S.A. Moharam, Sabriya Abdalasalam, Alaa Abdalfattah Abdalhadi, Naana Reyam Abdalla, Walaa Abdalla, Almthani Hamza Abdalrheem, Ashraf Abdalsalam, Saedah Abdeewi, Esraa Hassan Abdelgaum, Mohamed Abdelhalim, Mohammed Abdelkabir, Israa Abdelrahman, Sheryl Ann Abdukahil, Lamees Adil Abdulbaqi, Salaheddin Abdulhamid, Widyan Abdulhamid, Nurul Najmee Abdulkadir, Eman Abdulwahed, Rawad Abdunabi, Ryuzo Abe, Laurent Abel, Ahmed Mohammed Abodina, Amal Abrous, Lara Absil, Kamal Abu Jabal, Nashat Abu Salah, Abdurraouf Abusalama, Tareg Abdallah Abuzaid, Subhash Acharya, Andrew Acker, Elisabeth Adam, Safia Adem, Manuella Ademnou, Francisca Adewhajah, Diana Adrião, Anthony Afum-Adjei Awuah, Melvin Agbogbatey, Saleh Al Ageel, Aya Mustafa Ahmed, Musaab Mohammed Ahmed, Shakeel Ahmed, Zainab Ahmed Alaraji, Abdulrahman Ahmed Elhefnawy Enan, Reham Abdelhamid Ahmed Khalil, Ali Mostafa Ahmed Mohamed Abdelaziz, Kate Ainscough, Eka Airlangga, Tharwat Aisa, Ali Aisha, Bugila Aisha, Ali Ait Hssain, Younes Ait Tamlihat, Takako Akimoto, Ernita Akmal, Chika Akwani, Eman Al Qasim, Ahmed Alajeeli, Ahmed Alali, Razi Alalqam, Aliya Mohammed Alameen, Mohammed Al-Aquily, Zinah A. Alaraji, Khalid Albakry, Safa Albatni, Angela Alberti, Osama Aldabbourosama, Tala Al-dabbous, Amer Aldhalia, Abdulkarim Aldoukali, Senthilkumar Alegesan, Marta Alessi, Beatrice Alex, Kévin Alexandre, Abdulrahman Al-Fares, Asil Alflite, Huda Alfoudri, Qamrah Alhadad, Hoda Salem Alhaddad, Maali Khalid Mohamed Abdalla Alhasan, Ahmad Nabil Alhouri, Hasan Alhouri, Adam Ali, Imran Ali, Maha TagElser Mohammed Ali, Syed Ali Abbas, Yomna Ali Abdelghafar, Naseem Ali Sheikh, Kazali Enagnon Alidjnou, Mahmoud Aljadi, Sarah Aljamal, Mohammed Alkahlout, Akram Alkaseek, Qabas Alkhafajee, Clotilde Allavena, Nathalie Allou, Lana Almasri, Abdulrahman Almjersah, Raja Ahmed Alqandouz, Walaa Alrfaea, Moayad Alrifaee, Rawan Alsaadi, Yousef Al-Saba'a, Entisar Alshareea, Eslam Alshenawy, Aneela Altaf, João Melo Alves, João Alves, Rita Alves, Joana Alves Cabrita, Maria Amaral, Amro Essam Amer, Nur Amira, Amos Amoako Adusei, John Amuasi, Roberto Andini, Claire Andrejak, Andrea Angheben, François Angoulvant, Sophia Ankrah, Séverine Ansart, Sivanesen Anthonidass, Massimo Antonelli, Carlos Alexandre Antunes de Brito, Ardiyan Apriyana, Yaseen Arabi, Irene Aragao, Francisco Arancibia, Carolline Araujo, Antonio Arcadipane, Patrick Archambault, Lukas Arenz, Jean-Benoît Arlet, Christel Arnold-Day, Lovkesh Arora, Rakesh Arora, Elise Artaud-Macari, Diptesh Aryal, Angel Asensio, Elizabeth A. Ashley, Muhammad Ashraf, Muhammad Sheharyar Ashraf, Abir Ben Ashur, Franklin Asiedu-Bekoe, Namra Asif, Mohammad Asim, Grace Assi, Jean Baptiste Assie, Amirul Asyraf, Fouda Atangana, Ahmed Atia, Minahel Atif, Asia Atif Abdelrhman Abdallahrs, Anika Atique, Moad Atlowly, AM Udara Lakshan Attanyake, Johann Auchabie, Hugues Aumaitre, Adrien Auvet, Abdelmalek Awad Ali Mohammed, Eyvind W. Axelsen, Ared Ayad, Ahmed Ayman Hassan Helmi, Laurène Azemar, Mohammed Azizeldin, Cecile Azoulay, Hakeem Babatunde, Benjamin Bach, Delphine Bachelet, Claudine Badr, Roar Bævre-Jensen, Nadia Baig, John Kenneth Baillie, J Kevin Baird, Erica Bak, Agamemnon Bakakos, Nazreen Abu Bakar, Hibah Bileid Bakeer, Ashraf Bakri, Andriy Bal, Mohanaprasanth Balakrishnan, Irene Bandoh, Firouzé Bani-Sadr, Renata Barbalho, Nicholas Yuri Barbosa, Wendy S. Barclay, Saef Umar Barnett, Michaela Barnikel, Helena Barrasa, Cleide Barrigoto, Marie Bartoli, Joaquín Baruch, Romain Basmaci, Muhammad Fadhli Hassin Basri, AbdAlkarim Batool, Denise Battaglini, Jules Bauer, Diego Fernando Bautista Rincon, Denisse Bazan Dow, Abigail Beane, Alexandra Bedossa, Ker Hong Bee, Husna Begum, Sylvie Behilill, Albertus Beishuizen, Aleksandr Beljantsev, David Bellemare, Anna Beltrame, Beatriz Amorim Beltrão, Marine Beluze, Nicolas Benech, Lionel Eric Benjiman, Suzanne Bennett, Luís Bento, Jan-Erik Berdal, Lamis Berdeweel, Delphine Bergeaud, Hazel Bergin, Giulia Bertoli, Lorenzo Bertolino, Simon Bessis, Sybille Bevilcaqua, Karine Bezulier, Amar Bhatt, Krishna Bhavsar, Isabella Bianchi, Claudia Bianco, Sandra Bichoka, Farah Nadiah Bidin, Felwa Bin Humaid, Mohd Nazlin Bin Kamarudin, Muhannud Binnawara, Zeno Bisoffi, Patrick Biston, Laurent Bitker, Mustapha Bittaye, Jonathan Bitton, Pablo Blanco-Schweizer, Catherine Blier, Frank Bloos, Mathieu Blot, Filomena Boccia, Laetitia Bodenes, Debby Bogaert, Anne-Hélène Boivin, Ariel Bolanga, Isabela Bolaños, Pierre-Adrien Bolze, François Bompart, Aurelius Bonifasius, Joe Bonney, Diogo Borges, Raphaël Borie, Hans Martin Bosse, Elisabeth Botelho-Nevers, Lila Bouadma, Olivier Bouchaud, Sabelline Bouchez, Damien Bouhour, Kévin Bouiller, Laurence Bouillet, Camile Bouisse, Latsaniphone Bountthasavong, Anne-Sophie Boureau, John Bourke, Maude Bouscambert, Aurore Bousquet, Marielle Boyer-Besseyre, Maria Boylan, Fernando Augusto Bozza, Axelle Braconnier, Cynthia Braga, Timo Brandenburger, Filipa Brás Monteiro, Luca Brazzi, Dorothy Breen, Patrick Breen, David Brewster, Kathy Brickell, Tessa Broadley, Helen Brotherton, Alex Browne, Nicolas Brozzi, Sonja Hjellegjerde Brunvoll, Marjolein Brusse-Keizer, Petra Bryda, Nina Buchtele, Polina Bugaeva, Marielle Buisson, Danilo Buonsenso, Erlina Burhan, Donald Buri, Aidan Burrell, Ingrid G. Bustos, Denis Butnaru, André Cabie, Susana Cabral, Joana Cabrita, Eder Caceres, Cyril Cadoz, Rui Caetano Garcês, Kate Calligy, Jose Andres Calvache, João Camões, Valentine Campana, Paul Campbell, Josie Campisi, Cecilia Canepa, Mireia Cantero, Janice Caoili, Pauline Caraux-Paz, Sheila Cárcel, Filipa Cardoso, Filipe Cardoso, Nelson Cardoso, Sofia Cardoso, Simone Carelli, Nicolas Carlier, Thierry Carmoi, Gayle Carney, Inês Carqueja, Marie-Christine Carret, François Martin Carrier, Ida Carroll, Gail Carson, Maire-Laure Casanova, Mariana Cascão, Siobhan Casey, José Casimiro, Bailey Cassandra, Silvia Castañeda, Nidyanara Castanheira, Guylaine Castor-Alexandre, Ivo Castro, Ana Catarino, François-Xavier Catherine, Paolo Cattaneo, Roberta Cavalin, Giulio Giovanni Cavalli, Alexandros Cavayas, Adrian Ceccato, Masaneh Ceesay, Shelby Cerkovnik, Minerva Cervantes-Gonzalez, Muge Cevik, Anissa Chair, Catherine Chakveatze, Adrienne Chan, Meera Chand, Jean-Marc Chapplain, Charlotte Charpentier, Julie Chas, Muhammad Mobin Chaudry, Jonathan Samuel Chávez Iñiguez, Anjellica Chen, Yih-Sharng Chen, Léo Chenard, Matthew Pellan Cheng, Antoine Cheret, Thibault Chiarabini, Julian Chica, Suresh Kumar Chidambaram, Leong Chin Tho, Catherine Chirouze, Davide Chiumello, Sung-Min Cho, Bernard Cholley, Danoy Chommanam, Marie-Charlotte Chopin, Yock Ping Chow, Ting Soo Chow, Nathaniel Christy, Hiu Jian Chua, Jonathan Chua, Jose Pedro Cidade, José Miguel Cisneros Herreros, Anna Ciullo, Jennifer Clarke, Rolando Claure-Del Granado, Sara Clohisey, Cassidy Codan, Caitriona Cody, Jennifer Coles, Megan Coles, Gwenhaël Colin, Michael Collins, Pamela Combs, Jennifer Connolly, Marie Connor, Anne Conrad, Elaine Conway, Graham S. Cooke, Hugues Cordel, Amanda Corley, Sabine Cornelis, Alexander Daniel Cornet, Arianne Joy Corpuz, Andrea Cortegiani, Grégory Corvaisier, Camille Couffignal, Sandrine Couffin-Cadiergues, Roxane Courtois, Stéphanie Cousse, Juthaporn Cowan, Rachel Cregan, Gloria Crowl, Jonathan Crump, Claudina Cruz, Marc Csete, Ailbhe Cullen, Matthew Cummings, Gerard Curley, Elodie Curlier, Colleen Curran, Paula Custodio, Ana da Silva Filipe, Charlene Da Silveira, Al-Awwab Dabaliz, John Arne Dahl, Darren Dahly, Umberto D'Alessandro, Peter Daley, Zaina Dalloul, Heidi Dalton, Jo Dalton, Seamus Daly, Juliana Damas, Joycelyn Dame, Cammandji Damien, Nick Daneman, Jorge Dantas, Frédérick D'Aragon, Gillian de Loughry, Diego de Mendoza, Etienne De Montmollin, Rafael Freitas de Oliveira França, Ana Isabel de Pinho Oliveira, Rosanna De Rosa, Cristina De Rose, Thushan de Silva, Peter de Vries, Jillian Deacon, David Dean, Alexa Debard, Bianca DeBenedictis, Marie-Pierre Debray, Nathalie DeCastro, William Dechert, Romain Decours, Eve Defous, Isabelle Delacroix, Alexandre Delamou, Eric Delaveuve, Karen Delavigne, Nathalie M. Delfos, Ionna Deligiannis, Andrea Dell'Amore, Christelle Delmas, Pierre Delobel, Corine Delsing, Elisa Demonchy, Emmanuelle Denis, Dominique Deplanque, Pieter Depuydt, Diane Descamps, Mathilde Desvallées, Santi Dewayanti, Pathik Dhangar, Alpha Diallo, Souleymane Taran Diallo, Sylvain Diamantis, André Dias, Fernanda Dias Da Silva, Rodrigo Diaz, Juan Jose Diaz, Priscila Diaz, Bakary K. Dibba, Kévin Didier, Jean-Luc Diehl, Wim Dieperink, Jérôme Dimet, Vincent Dinot, Fara Diop, Alphonsine Diouf, Yael Dishon, Cedric Djadda, Félix Djossou, Annemarie B. Docherty, Helen Doherty, Arjen M. Dondorp, Christl A. Donnelly, Yoann Donohue, Sean Donohue, Peter Doran, Céline Dorival, Eric D'Ortenzio, Yash Doshi, Phouvieng Douangdala, James Joshua Douglas, Renee Douma, Nathalie Dournon, Joanne Downey, Mark Downing, Thomas Drake, Aoife Driscoll, Ibrahim Kwaku Duah, Claudio Duarte Fonseca, Vincent Dubee, François Dubos, Audrey Dubot-Pérès, Alexandre Ducancelle, Toni Duculan, Susanne Dudman, Abhijit Duggal, Paul Dunand, Mathilde Duplaix, Emanuele Durante-Mangoni, Lucian Durham, III, Bertrand Dussol, Juliette Duthoit, Xavier Duval, Anne Margarita Dyrhol-Riise, Sim Choon Ean, Ada Ebo, Marco Echeverria-Villalobos, Michael Edelstein, Siobhan Egan, Linn Margrete Eggesbø, Khadeja Ehzaz, Carla Eira, Mohammed El Sanharawi, Marwan El Sayed, Mohammed Elabid, Mohamed Bashir Elagili, Subbarao Elapavaluru, Mohammad Elbahnasawy, Sohail Elboshra, Brigitte Elharrar, Jacobien Ellerbroek, Merete Ellingjord-Dale, Hamida ELMagrahi, Mohammad Muatasm Elmubark, Loubna Elotmani, Lauren Eloundou, Philippine Eloy, Basma Elshaikhy, Tarek Elshazly, Wafa Elsokni, Aml Ahmed Eltayeb, Iqbal Elyazar, Zarief Kamel Emad, Hussein Embarek, Isabelle Enderle, Tomoyuki Endo, Gervais Eneli, Chan Chee Eng, Ilka Engelmann, Vincent Enouf, Olivier Epaulard, Haneen Esaadi, Mariano Esperatti, Hélène Esperou, Catarina Espírito Santo, Marina Esposito-Farese, Rachel Essaka, Lorinda Essuman, João Estevão, Manuel Etienne, Anna Greti Everding, Mirjam Evers, Isabelle Fabre, Marc Fabre, Ismaila Fadera, Asgad Osman Abdalla Fadlalla, Amna Faheem, Arabella Fahy, Cameron J. Fairfield, Zul Fakar, Komal Fareed, Pedro Faria, Ahmed Farooq, Hanan Fateena, Mohamed Fathi, Salem Fatima, Karine Faure, Raphaël Favory, Mohamed Fayed, Niamh Feely, Jorge Fernandes, Susana Fernandes, François-Xavier Ferrand, Eglantine Ferrand Devouge, Joana Ferrão, Mário Ferraz, Benigno Ferreira, Isabel Ferreira, Bernardo Ferreira, Sílvia Ferreira, Nicolas Ferriere, Céline Ficko, Claudia Figueiredo-Mello, William Finlayson, Thomas Flament, Tom Fletcher, Aline-Marie Florence, Letizia Lucia Florio, Brigid Flynn, Deirdre Flynn, Jean Foley, Victor Fomin, Tatiana Fonseca, Patricia Fontela, Karen Forrest, Simon Forsyth, Denise Foster, Giuseppe Foti, Berline Fotso, Erwan Fourn, Robert A. Fowler, Marianne Fraher, Diego Franch-Llasat, Christophe Fraser, John F. Fraser, Marcela Vieira Freire, Ana Freitas Ribeiro, Craig French, Caren Friedrich, Ricardo Fritz, Stéphanie Fry, Nora Fuentes, Masahiro Fukuda, G. Argin, Valérie Gaborieau, Rostane Gaci, Massimo Gagliardi, Jean-Charles Gagnard, Amandine Gagneux-Brunon, Abdou Gai, Sérgio Gaião, Linda Gail Skeie, Adham Mohamed Galal Mohamed Ramadan, Phil Gallagher, Carrol Gamble, Yasmin Gani, Arthur Garan, Rebekha Garcia, Julia Garcia-Diaz, Esteban Garcia-Gallo, Navya Garimella, Denis Garot, Valérie Garrait, Basanta Gauli, Anatoliy Gavrylov, Alexandre Gaymard, Johannes Gebauer, Eva Geraud, Louis Gerbaud Morlaes, Nuno Germano, Malak Ghemmeid, Praveen Kumar Ghisulal, Jade Ghosn, Marco Giani, Tristan Gigante, Elaine Gilroy, Guillermo Giordano, Michelle Girvan, Valérie Gissot, Gezy Giwangkancana, Daniel Glikman, Petr Glybochko, Eric Gnall, Geraldine Goco, François Goehringer, Siri Goepel, Jean-Christophe Goffard, Jin Yi Goh, Brigitta Golács, Jonathan Golob, Kyle Gomez, Joan Gómez-Junyent, Marie Gominet, Alicia Gonzalez, Patricia Gordon, Isabelle Gorenne, Laure Goubert, Cécile Goujard, Tiphaine Goulenok, Margarite Grable, Jeronimo Graf, Edward Wilson Grandin, Pascal Granier, Giacomo Grasselli, Lorenzo Grazioli, Christopher A. Green, Courtney Greene, William Greenhalf, Segolène Greffe, Domenico Luca Grieco, Matthew Griffee, Fiona Griffiths, Ioana Grigoras, Albert Groenendijk, Fassou Mathias Grovogui, Heidi Gruner, Yusing Gu, Jérémie Guedj, Martin Guego, Anne-Marie Guerguerian, Daniela Guerreiro, Romain Guery, Anne Guillaumot, Laurent Guilleminault, Maisa Guimarães de Castro, Thomas Guimard, Marieke Haalboom, Daniel Haber, Ali Hachemi, Abdurrahman Haddud, Nadir Hadri, Wael Hafez, Fakhir Raza Haidri, Fatima Mhd Rida Hajij, Sheeba Hakak, Adam Hall, Sophie Halpin, Shaher Hamdan, Abdelhafeez Hamdi, Jawad Hameed, Ansley Hamer, Raph L. Hamers, Rebecca Hamidfar, Bato Hammarström, Naomi Hammond, Terese Hammond, Lim Yuen Han, Matly Hanan, Rashan Haniffa, Kok Wei Hao, Hayley Hardwick, Ewen M. Harrison, Janet Harrison, Samuel Bernard Ekow Harrison, Alan Hartman, Sulieman Hasan, Mohammad Ali Nabil Hasan, Mohd Shahnaz Hasan, Junaid Hashmi, Madiha Hashmi, Amoni Hassan, Ebtisam Hassanin, Muhammad Hayat, Ailbhe Hayes, Leanne Hays, Jan Heerman, Lars Heggelund, Ahmed Helmi, Ross Hendry, Martina Hennessy, Aquiles Rodrigo Henriquez-Trujillo, Maxime Hentzien, Diana Hernandez, Andrew Hershey, Liv Hesstvedt, Astarini Hidayah, Eibhlin Higgins, Rupert Higgins, Samuel Hinton, Hiroaki Hiraiwa, Haider Hirkani, Hikombo Hitoto, Antonia Ho, Yi Bin Ho, Alexandre Hoctin, Isabelle Hoffmann, Wei Han Hoh, Oscar Hoiting, Rebecca Holt, Jan Cato Holter, Juan Pablo Horcajada, Ikram Houas, Mabrouka Houderi, Catherine L. Hough, Stuart Houltham, Jimmy Ming-Yang Hsu, Jean-Sébastien Hulot, Abby Hurd, Iqbal Hussain, Aliae Mohamed Hussein, Mahmood Hussein, Fatima Ibrahim, Bashir Ibran, Samreen Ijaz, M. Arfan Ikram, Carlos Cañada Illana, Patrick Imbert, Muhammad Imran Ansari, Rana Imran Sikander, Hugo Inácio, Carmen Infante Dominguez, Yun Sii Ing, Mariachiara Ippolito, Vera Irawany, Sarah Isgett, Tiago Isidoro, Nadiah Ismail, Margaux Isnard, Mette Stausland Istre, Junji Itai, Daniel Ivulich, Danielle Jaafar, Salma Jaafoura, Hamza Jaber, Julien Jabot, Clare Jackson, Abubacarr Jagne, Stéphane Jaureguiberry, Denise Jaworsky, Florence Jego, Anilawati Mat Jelani, Synne Jenum, Ruth Jimbo-Sotomayor, Ong Yiaw Joe, Ruth Noemí Jorge García, Silje Bakken Jørgensen, Cédric Joseph, Mark Joseph, Swosti Joshi, Mercé Jourdain, Philippe Jouvet, Anna Jung, Hanna Jung, Dafsah Juzar, Ouifiya Kafif, Florentia Kaguelidou, Neerusha Kaisbain, Thavamany Kaleesvran, Sabina Kali, Karl Trygve Kalleberg, Smaragdi Kalomoiri, Muhammad Aisar Ayadi Kamaluddin, Armand Saloun Kamano, Zul Amali Che Kamaruddin, Nadiah Kamarudin, Kavita Kamineni, Darshana Hewa Kandamby, Kong Yeow Kang, Darakhshan Kanwal, Dyah Kanyawati, Mohamed Karghul, Pratap Karpayah, Todd Karsies, Daisuke Kasugai, Kevin Katz, Christy Kay, Lamees Kayyali, Seán Keating, Pulak Kedia, Andrea Kelly, Aoife Kelly, Claire Kelly, Niamh Kelly, Sadie Kelly, Yvelynne Kelly, Maeve Kelsey, Kalynn Kennon, Sommay Keomany, Maeve Kernan, Younes Kerroumi, Sharma Keshav, Shams Khail, Sarah Khaled, Imrana Khalid, Antoine Khalil, Irfan Khan, Quratul Ain Khan, Sushil Khanal, Abid Khatak, Krish Kherajani, Michelle E. Kho, Denisa Khoo, Ryan Khoo, Saye Khoo, Muhammad Nasir Khoso, Amin Khuwaja, Khor How Kiat, Yuri Kida, Peter Kiiza, Beathe Kiland Granerud, Anders Benjamin Kildal, Jae Burm Kim, Antoine Kimmoun, Detlef Kindgen-Milles, Nobuya Kitamura, Eyrun Floerecke Kjetland Kjetland, Paul Klenerman, Rob Klont, Gry Kloumann Bekken, Stephen R. Knight, Robin Kobbe, Paa Kobina Forson, Chamira Kodippily, Malte Kohns Vasconcelos, Sabin Koirala, Mamoru Komatsu, Franklina Korkor Abebrese, Volkan Korten, Stephanie Kouba, Mohamed Lamine Kourouma, Karifa Kourouma, Arsène Kpangon, Karolina Krawczyk, Ali Kredan, Vinothini Krishnan, Sudhir Krishnan, Oksana Kruglova, Anneli Krund, Pei Xuan Kuan, Ashok Kumar, Deepali Kumar, Ganesh Kumar, Mukesh Kumar, Dinesh Kuriakose, Ethan Kurtzman, Demetrios Kutsogiannis, Galyna Kutsyna, Ama Kwakyewaa Bedu-Addo, Sylvie Kwedi, Konstantinos Kyriakoulis, Marie Lachatre, Marie Lacoste, John G. Laffey, Nadhem Lafhej, Marie Lagrange, Fabrice Laine, Olivier Lairez, Sanjay Lakhey, Marc Lambert, François Lamontagne, Marie Langelot-Richard, Vincent Langlois, Eka Yudha Lantang, Marina Lanza, Cédric Laouénan, Samira Laribi, Delphine Lariviere, Stéphane Lasry, Sakshi Lath, Naveed Latif, Youssef Latifeh, Odile Launay, Didier Laureillard, Yoan Lavie-Badie, Andy Law, Cassie Lawrence, Teresa Lawrence, Minh Le, Clément Le Bihan, Cyril Le Bris, Georges Le Falher, Lucie Le Fevre, Quentin Le Hingrat, Marion Le Maréchal, Soizic Le Mestre, Gwenaël Le Moal, Vincent Le Moing, Hervé Le Nagard, Ema Leal, Marta Leal Santos, Biing Horng Lee, Heng Gee Lee, Su Hwan Lee, Jennifer Lee, Todd C. Lee, Yi Lin Lee, Gary Leeming, Bénédicte Lefebvre, Laurent Lefebvre, Benjamin Lefèvre, Sylvie LeGac, Merili-Helen Lehiste, Jean-Daniel Lelievre, François Lellouche, Adrien Lemaignen, Véronique Lemee, Anthony Lemeur, Gretchen Lemmink, Ha Sha Lene, Jenny Lennon, Rafael León, Marc Leone, Tanel Lepik, Quentin Lepiller, François-Xavier Lescure, Olivier Lesens, Mathieu Lesouhaitier, Amy Lester-Grant, Andrew Letizia, Sophie Letrou, Bruno Levy, Yves Levy, Claire Levy-Marchal, Katarzyna Lewandowska, Erwan L'Her, Gianluigi Li Bassi, Janet Liang, Ali Liaquat, Geoffrey Liegeon, Kah Chuan Lim, Wei Shen Lim, Chantre Lima, Bruno Lina, Lim Lina, Andreas Lind, Maja Katherine Lingad, Guillaume Lingas, Sylvie Lion-Daolio, Keibun Liu, Marine Livrozet, Patricia Lizotte, Antonio Loforte, Navy Lolong, Leong Chee Loon, Diogo Lopes, Dalia Lopez-Colon, Anthony L. Loschner, Paul Loubet, Bouchra Loufti, Guillame Louis, Silvia Lourenco, Lara Lovelace-Macon, Lee Lee Low, Marije Lowik, Jia Shyi Loy, Jean Christophe Lucet, Carlos M. Luna, Olguta Lungu, Miles Lunn, Liem Luong, Nestor Luque, Dominique Luton, Olavi Maasikas, Moïse Machado, Sara Machado, Gabriel Macheda, Mustafa Magzoub, Rafael Mahieu, Sophie Mahy, Ana Raquel Maia, Lars S. Maier, Oumou Maiga Ascofare, Mylène Maillet, Thomas Maitre, Nimisha Abdul Majeed, Maximilian Malfertheiner, Nadia Malik, Paddy Mallon, Fernando Maltez, Denis Malvy, Victoria Manda, Laurent Mandelbrot, Frank Manetta, Julie Mankikian, Edmund Manning, Aldric Manuel, Veronika Maráczi, Ceila Maria Sant′Ana Malaque, Flávio Marino, Samuel Markowicz, Ana Marques, Catherine Marquis, Laura Marsh, Brian Marsh, Megan Marshal, John Marshall, Celina Turchi Martelli, Dori-Ann Martin, Emily Martin, Guillaume Martin-Blondel, Alessandra Martinelli, F. Eduardo Martinez, Martin Martinot, Alejandro Martín-Quiros, Ana Martins, João Martins, Nuno Martins, Caroline Martins Rego, Gennaro Martucci, Olga Martynenko, Eva Miranda Marwali, Marsilla Marzukie, David Maslove, Sabina Mason, Sobia Masood, Fatma Masoud, Moise Massoma, Palmer Masumbe, Mohd Basri Mat Nor, Moshe Matan, Henrique Mateus Fernandes, Meghena Mathew, Christina Mathew, Mathieu Mattei, Laurence Maulin, Juergen May, Javier Maynar, Mayfong Mayxay, Thierry Mazzoni, Lisa Mc Sweeney, Colin McArthur, Naina McCann, Peter McCanny, Aine McCarthy, Anne McCarthy, Colin McCloskey, Rachael McConnochie, Sherry McDermott, Sarah E. McDonald, Aine McElroy, Samuel McElwee, Natalie McEvoy, Allison McGeer, Kenneth A. McLean, Paul McNally, Bairbre McNicholas, Edel Meaney, Cécile Mear-Passard, Maggie Mechlin, Nastia Medombou, Omar Mehkri, Ferruccio Mele, Luis Melo, Kashif Ali Memon, João João Mendes, Ogechukwu Menkiti, Kusum Menon, France Mentré, Alexander J. Mentzer, Emmanuelle Mercier, Noémie Mercier, Antoine Merckx, Mayka Mergeay-Fabre, Blake Mergler, António Mesquita, Roberta Meta, Osama Metwally, Agnès Meybeck, Dan Meyer, Alison M. Meynert, Vanina Meysonnier, Mehdi Mezidi, Céline Michelanglei, Isabelle Michelet, Efstathia Mihelis, Vladislav Mihnovit, Duha Milad Abdullah, Jennene Miller, Hugo Miranda-Maldonado, Nor Arisah Misnan, Nik Nur Eliza Mohamed, Nouralsabah Mohamed, Tahira Jamal Mohamed, Alaa Mohamed Ads, Ahmed Reda Mohamed Elsayed Abdelhalim, Libya Mohammed, Shrouk Fawze Mohammed Mostafa, Manahil Omer Abdelrahman Mohammedahmed, Omer Abdullah Mohammedelhassan, Asma Moin, Walaa Mokhtar, Elena Molinos, Brenda Molloy, Mary Mone, Agostinho Monteiro, Claudia Montes, Giorgia Montrucchio, Sarah Moore, Shona C. Moore, Lina Morales Cely, Marwa Morgom, Lucia Moro, Catherine Motherway, Ana Motos, Hugo Mouquet, Clara Mouton Perrot, Julien Moyet, Suleiman Haitham Mualla, Mohamed Muftah, Aisha Kalsoom Mufti, Ng Yong Muh, Mo'nes Muhaisen, Dzawani Muhamad, Jimmy Mullaert, Fredrik Müller, Karl Erik Müller, Daniel Munblit, Syed Muneeb Ali, Nadeem Munir, Laveena Munshi, Aisling Murphy, Patrick Murray, Marlène Murris, Srinivas Murthy, Himed Musaab, Alamin Mustafa, Mus'ab Mustafa, Dana Mustafa, Himasha Muvindi, Dimitra Melia Myrodia, Farah Nadia Mohd-Hanafiah, Behzad Nadjm, Dave Nagpal, Alex Nagrebetsky, Blanka Nagybányai-Nagy, Herwin Nanda Boudoin, Mangala Narasimhan, Nageswaran Narayanan, Prashant Nasa, Rashid Nasim Khan, Ahmad Nasrallah, Adel Gerges Nassif Metri, Alasdair Nazerali-Maitland, Nadège Neant, Holger Neb, Nikita Nekliudov, Matthew Nelder, Erni Nelwan, Raul Neto, Emily Neumann, Wing Yiu Ng, Pauline Yeung Ng, Anthony Nghi, Duc Nguyen, Orna Ni Choileain, Niamh Ni Leathlobhair, Nerissa Niba, Alistair D. Nichol, Prompak Nitayavardhana, Stephanie Nonas, Nurul Amani Mohd Noordin, Nurul Faten Izzati Norharizam, Anita North, Alessandra Notari, Mahdad Noursadeghi, Adam Nowinski, Saad Nseir, Leonard Numfor, Nurnaningsih Nurnaningsih, Dwi Utomo Nusantara, Elsa Nyamankolly, Anders Benteson Nygaard, Fionnuala O. Brien, Annmarie O. Callaghan, Annmarie O'Callaghan, Giovanna Occhipinti, Derbrenn OConnor, Max O'Donnell, Lawrence Ofori-Boadu, Tawnya Ogston, Takayuki Ogura, Tak-Hyuk Oh, Sophie O'Halloran, Katie O'Hearn, Sally-Ann Ohene, João Oliveira, Larissa Oliveira, Piero L. Olliaro, Cinderella Omar Rageh Elnaggar, Alsarrah Ali Mohammed Omer, Pierre Ondobo, David S.Y. Ong, Jee Yan Ong, Wilna Oosthuyzen, Anne Opavsky, Peter Openshaw, Saijad Orakzai, Claudia Milena Orozco-Chamorro, Jamel Ortoleva, Mohamed Osama Elsayed Soliman, Javier Osatnik, Linda O'Shea, Miriam O'Sullivan, Eman Othman, Siti Zubaidah Othman, Nadia Ouamara, Rachida Ouissa, Micheal Owusu, Ama Akyampomaa Owusu-Asare, Eric Oziol, Maïder Pagadoy, Justine Pages, Amanda Palacios, Massimo Palmarini, Giovanna Panarello, Hem Paneru, Lai Hui Pang, Mauro Panigada, Nathalie Pansu, Aurélie Papadopoulos, Rachael Parke, Melissa Parker, Jérémie Pasquier, Bruno Pastene, Fabian Patauner, Drashti Patel, Mohan Dass Pathmanathan, Luís Patrão, Patricia Patricio, Lisa Patterson, Rajyabardhan Pattnaik, Christelle Paul, Mical Paul, Jorge Paulos, William A. Paxton, Jean-François Payen, Sandra L. Peake, Kalaiarasu Peariasamy, Giles J. Peek, Florent Peelman, Nathan Peiffer-Smadja, Vincent Peigne, Mare Pejkovska, Paolo Pelosi, Ithan D. Peltan, Rui Pereira, Daniel Perez, Thomas Perpoint, Antonio Pesenti, Vincent Pestre, Lenka Petrou, Michele Petrovic, Ventzislava Petrov-Sanchez, Frank Olav Pettersen, Gilles Peytavin, Richard Odame Philips, Ooyanong Phonemixay, Soulichanya Phoutthavong, Michael Piagnerelli, Walter Picard, Olivier Picone, Maria de Piero, Djura Piersma, Carlos Pimentel, Raquel Pinto, Catarina Pires, Lionel Piroth, Ayodhia Pitaloka, Chiara Piubelli, Riinu Pius, Simone Piva, Laurent Plantier, Hon Shen Png, Julien Poissy, Ryadh Pokeerbux, Sergio Poli, Georgios Pollakis, Diane Ponscarme, Diego Bastos Porto, Andra-Maris Post, Douwe F. Postma, Pedro Povoa, Diana Póvoas, Jeff Powis, Sofia Prapa, Viladeth Praphasiri, Sébastien Preau, Christian Prebensen, Jean-Charles Preiser, Anton Prinssen, Gamage Dona Dilanthi Priyadarshani, Lucia Proença, Sravya Pudota, Bambang Pujo Semedi, Mathew Pulicken, Peter Puplampu, Gregory Purcell, Luisa Quesada, Vilmaris Quinones-Cardona, Else Quist-Paulsen, Mohammed Quraishi, Fadi Qutishat, Maia Rabaa, Christian Rabaud, Ebenezer Rabindrarajan, Aldo Rafael, Marie Rafiq, Abdelrahman Ragab, Mutia Rahardjani, Arslan Rahat Ullah, Ahmad Kashfi Haji Ab Rahman, Rozanah Abd Rahman, Fernando Rainieri, Giri Shan Rajahram, Pratheema Ramachandran, Nagarajan Ramakrishnan, José Ramalho, Ahmad Afiq Ramli, Blandine Rammaert, Grazielle Viana Ramos, Asim Rana, Rajavardhan Rangappa, Ritika Ranjan, Christophe Rapp, Aasiyah Rashan, Thalha Rashan, Ghulam Rasheed, Menaldi Rasmin, Indrek Rätsep, Cornelius Rau, Tharmini Ravi, Ali Raza, Andre Real, Stanislas Rebaudet, Sarah Redl, Brenda Reeve, Attaur Rehman, Muhammad Osama Rehman Khalid, Dag Henrik Reikvam, Renato Reis, Jonathan Remppis, Martine Remy, Hongru Ren, Hanna Renk, Anne-Sophie Resseguier, Matthieu Revest, Oleksa Rewa, Maria Ines Ribeiro, Antonia Ricchiuto, David Richardson, Denise Richardson, Laurent Richier, Siti Nurul Atikah Ahmad Ridzuan, Ana L. Rios, Asgar Rishu, Patrick Rispal, Karine Risso, Maria Angelica Rivera Nuñez, Chiara Robba, André Roberto, Stephanie Roberts, Charles Roberts, David L. Robertson, Olivier Robineau, Anna Roca, Ferran Roche-Campo, Paola Rodari, Simão Rodeia, Bernhard Roessler, Claire Roger, Pierre-Marie Roger, Roberto Roncon-Albuquerque, Jr., Mélanie Roriz, Manuel Rosa-Calatrava, Michael Rose, Dorothea Rosenberger, Andrea Rossanese, Matteo Rossetti, Patrick Rossignol, Carine Roy, Benoît Roze, Desy Rusmawatiningtyas, Clark D. Russell, Maeve Ryan, Steffi Ryckaert, Aleksander Rygh Holten, Isabela Saba, Sairah Sadaf, Musharaf Sadat, Valla Sahraei, Abdurraouf Said, Nadia Saidani, Pranya Sakiyalak, Fodé Bangaly Sako, Moamen Salah, Ali Alaa Salah Eldin Mohamed Abbas, Nawal Salahuddin, Leonardo Salazar, Jodat Saleem, Mohammed Saleh Alyasiri, Talat Ahmed Abu Salem, Gabriele Sales, Charlotte Salmon Gandonniere, Hélène Salvator, Dana Samardali, Shaden Samardali, Yehia Samir Shaaban Aly Orabi, Emely Sanchez, Olivier Sanchez, Kizy Sanchez de Oliveira, Angel Sanchez-Miralles, Vanessa Sancho-Shimizu, Gyan Sandhu, Zulfiqar Sandhu, Pierre-François Sandrine, Oana Săndulescu, Marlene Santos, Shirley Sarfo-Mensah, Bruno Sarmento Banheiro, Iam Claire E. Sarmiento, Benjamine Sarton, Ankana Satya, Sree Satyapriya, Rumaisah Satyawati, Egle Saviciute, Yen Tsen Saw, Justin Schaffer, Tjard Schermer, Arnaud Scherpereel, Marion Schneider, János Schnur, Stephan Schroll, Michael Schwameis, Gary Schwartz, Janet T. Scott, James Scott-Brown, Nicholas Sedillot, Tamara Seitz, Jaganathan Selvanayagam, Mageswari Selvarajoo, Malcolm G. Semple, Rasidah Bt Senian, Eric Senneville, Claudia Sepulveda, Filipa Sequeira, Tânia Sequeira, Ary Serpa Neto, Ellen Shadowitz, Syamin Asyraf Shahidan, Hamza Shahla, Laila Shalabi, Haitam Shames, Anuraj Shankar, Shaikh Sharjeel, Pratima Sharma, Catherine A. Shaw, Victoria Shaw, John Robert Sheenan, Dr. Rajesh Mohan Shetty, Rohan Shetty, Mohiuddin Shiekh, Nobuaki Shime, Keiki Shimizu, Sally Shrapnel, Shubha Kalyan Shrestha, Pramesh Sundar Shrestha, Hoi Ping Shum, Nassima Si Mohammed, Ng Yong Siang, Moses Siaw-Frimpong, Jeanne Sibiude, Bountoy Sibounheuang, Nidhal Siddig, Atif Siddiqui, Maqsood Ahmed Siddiqui, Louise Sigfrid, Fatoumata Sillah, Piret Sillaots, Catarina Silva, Maria Joao Silva, Rogério Silva, Benedict Sim Lim Heng, Wai Ching Sin, Dario Sinatti, Mahendra Singh, Punam Singh, Pompini Agustina Sitompul, Karisha Sivam, Vegard Skogen, Sue Smith, Benjamin Smood, Coilin Smyth, Morgane Snacken, Dominic So, Tze Vee Soh, Lene Bergendal Solberg, Joshua Solomon, Tom Solomon, Emily Somers, Agnès Sommet, Myung Jin Song, Rima Song, Tae Song, Jack Song Chia, Arne Søraas, Albert Sotto, Edouard Soum, Ana Chora Sousa, Marta Sousa, Maria Sousa Uva, Vicente Souza-Dantas, Mamadou Saliou Sow, Alexandra Sperry, Elisabetta Spinuzza, B. P. Sanka Ruwan Sri Darshana, Shiranee Sriskandan, Sarah Stabler, Thomas Staudinger, Stephanie-Susanne Stecher, Trude Steinsvik, Ymkje Stienstra, Birgitte Stiksrud, Eva Stolz, Amy Stone, Anca Streinu-Cercel, Adrian Streinu-Cercel, Geoff Strong, Ami Stuart, David Stuart, Richa Su, Decy Subekti, Gabriel Suen, Jacky Y. Suen, Prasanth Sukumar, Asfia Sultana, Charlotte Summers, Dubravka Supic, Deepashankari Suppiah, Magdalena Surovcová, Atie Suwarti, Andrey Svistunov, Sarah Syahrin, Augustina Sylverken, Konstantinos Syrigos, Jaques Sztajnbok, Konstanty Szuldrzynski, Shirin Tabrizi, Fabio S. Taccone, Lysa Tagherset, Shahdattul Mawarni Taib, Sara Taleb, Cheikh Talla, Jelmer Talsma, Renaud Tamisier, Maria Lawrensia Tampubolon, Kim Keat Tan, Yan Chyi Tan, Hiroyuki Tanaka, Taku Tanaka, Hayato Taniguchi, Huda Taqdees, Arshad Taqi, Coralie Tardivon, Yousef Tarek Kamal Mostafa, Ali Tarhabat, Pierre Tattevin, M Azhari Taufik, Hassan Tawfik, Tze Yuan Tee, João Teixeira, Sofia Tejada, Marie-Capucine Tellier, Sze Kye Teoh, Vanessa Teotonio, François Téoulé, Olivier Terrier, Nicolas Terzi, Hubert Tessier-Grenier, Adrian Tey, Alif Adlan Mohd Thabit, Anand Thakur, Zhang Duan Tham, Suvintheran Thangavelu, Elmi Theron, Vincent Thibault, Simon-Djamel Thiberville, Benoît Thill, Jananee Thirumanickam, Niamh Thompson, Shaun Thompson, Emma C. Thomson, David Thomson, Mathew Thorpe, Surain Raaj Thanga Thurai, Ryan S. Thwaites, Paul Tierney, Vadim Tieroshyn, Peter S. Timashev, Jean-François Timsit, Noémie Tissot, Fiona Toal, Jordan Zhien Yang Toh, Maria Toki, Kristian Tonby, Sia Loong Tonnii, Marta Torre, Antoni Torres, Margarida Torres, Rosario Maria Torres Santos-Olmo, Hernando Torres-Zevallos, Aboubacar Tounkara, Michael Towers, Fodé Amara Traoré, Tony Trapani, Cécile Tromeur, Ioannis Trontzas, Tiffany Trouillon, Jeanne Truong, Christelle Tual, Sarah Tubiana, Helen Tuite, Alexis F. Turgeon, Jean-Marie Turmel, Lance C.W. Turtle, Anders Tveita, Pawel Twardowski, Makoto Uchiyama, PG Ishara Udayanga, Andrew Udy, Roman Ullrich, Alberto Uribe, Asad Usman, Effua Usuf, Timothy M. Uyeki, Cristinava Vajdovics, Piero Valentini, Luís Val-Flores, Stijn Van de Velde, Marcel van den Berge, Machteld van der Feltz, Job van der Palen, Paul van der Valk, Nicky Van Der Vekens, Peter Van der Voort, Sylvie Van Der Werf, Laura van Gulik, Jarne Van Hattem, Carolien van Netten, Ilonka van Veen, Noémie Vanel, Henk Vanoverschelde, Michael Varrone, Shoban Raj Vasudayan, Charline Vauchy, Pavan Kumar Vecham, Shaminee Veeran, Aurélie Veislinger, Sebastian Vencken, Sara Ventura, Annelies Verbon, José Ernesto Vidal, César Vieira, Deepak Vijayan, Judit Villar, Pierre-Marc Villeneuve, Andrea Villoldo, Gayatri Vishwanathan, Benoit Visseaux, Hannah Visser, Chiara Vitiello, Manivanh Vongsouvath, Harald Vonkeman, Fanny Vuotto, Suhaila Abdul Wahab, Noor Hidayu Wahab, Nadirah Abdul Wahid, Marina Wainstein, Laura Walsh, Wan Fadzlina Wan Muhd Shukeri, Chih-Hsien Wang, Steve Webb, Katharina Weil, Tan Pei Wen, Hassi Wesam, Sanne Wesselius, T. Eoin West, Murray Wham, Bryan Whelan, Nicole White, Paul Henri Wicky, Aurélie Wiedemann, Surya Otto Wijaya, Keith Wille, Sue Willems, Bailey Williams, Patricia J. Williams, Virginie Williams, Jessica Wittman, Calvin Wong, Xin Ci Wong, Yew Sing Wong, Teck Fung Wong, Natalie Wright, Lim Saio Xian, Ioannis Xynogalas, Siti Rohani Binti Mohd Yakop, Masaki Yamazaki, Elizabeth Yarad, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Nicholas Yee Liang Hing, Abdelrahman Yehia Mahmoud Abdelaal, Cécile Yelnik, Chian Hui Yeoh, Stephanie Yerkovich, Touxiong Yiaye, Toshiki Yokoyama, Hodane Yonis, Obada Yousif, Saptadi Yuliarto, Akram Zaaqoq, Marion Zabbe, Gustavo E. Zabert, Kai Zacharowski, Masliza Zahid, Maram Zahran, Nor Zaila Binti Zaidan, Maria Zambon, Miguel Zambrano, Alberto Zanella, Nurul Zaynah, Hiba Zayyad, Alexander Zoufaly, and David Zucman

Subjects
COVID-19, Non-respiratory symptoms, Respiratory symptoms, Risk factors, Mortality, Science (General), Q1-390, Social sciences (General), H1-99
Abstract

Background: COVID-19 is primarily known as a respiratory illness; however, many patients present to hospital without respiratory symptoms. The association between non-respiratory presentations of COVID-19 and outcomes remains unclear. We investigated risk factors and clinical outcomes in patients with no respiratory symptoms (NRS) and respiratory symptoms (RS) at hospital admission. Methods: This study describes clinical features, physiological parameters, and outcomes of hospitalised COVID-19 patients, stratified by the presence or absence of respiratory symptoms at hospital admission. RS patients had one or more of: cough, shortness of breath, sore throat, runny nose or wheezing; while NRS patients did not. Results: Of 178,640 patients in the study, 86.4 % presented with RS, while 13.6 % had NRS. NRS patients were older (median age: NRS: 74 vs RS: 65) and less likely to be admitted to the ICU (NRS: 36.7 % vs RS: 37.5 %). NRS patients had a higher crude in-hospital case-fatality ratio (NRS 41.1 % vs. RS 32.0 %), but a lower risk of death after adjusting for confounders (HR 0.88 [0.83–0.93]). Conclusion: Approximately one in seven COVID-19 patients presented at hospital admission without respiratory symptoms. These patients were older, had lower ICU admission rates, and had a lower risk of in-hospital mortality after adjusting for confounders.

Published
2024
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4. Epidemiological impacts of the NHS COVID-19 app in England and Wales throughout its first year

Author

Michelle Kendall, Daphne Tsallis, Chris Wymant, Andrea Di Francia, Yakubu Balogun, Xavier Didelot, Luca Ferretti, and Christophe Fraser

Subjects
Science
Abstract

The NHS COVID-19 digital contact tracing app was designed to notify people of potential exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Here, the authors summarise the uptake and engagement with the app in its first year, and estimate its epidemiological impact in terms of numbers of cases, hospitalisations, and deaths averted.

Published
2023
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5. Correction: Viral burden is associated with age, vaccination, and viral variant in a population-representative study of SARS-CoV-2 that accounts for time-since-infection-related sampling bias.

Author

Helen R Fryer, Tanya Golubchik, Matthew Hall, Christophe Fraser, Robert Hinch, Luca Ferretti, Laura Thomson, Anel Nurtay, Lorenzo Pellis, Thomas House, George MacIntyre-Cockett, Amy Trebes, David Buck, Paolo Piazza, Angie Green, Lorne J Lonie, Darren Smith, Matthew Bashton, Matthew Crown, Andrew Nelson, Clare M McCann, Mohammed Adnan Tariq, Claire J Elstob, Rui Nunes Dos Santos, Zack Richards, Xin Xhang, Joseph Hawley, Mark R Lee, Priscilla Carrillo-Barragan, Isobel Chapman, Sarah Harthern-Flint, COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium, David Bonsall, and Katrina A Lythgoe

Subjects
Immunologic diseases. Allergy, RC581-607, Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1011461.].

Published
2023
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6. Viral burden is associated with age, vaccination, and viral variant in a population-representative study of SARS-CoV-2 that accounts for time-since-infection-related sampling bias.

Author

Helen R Fryer, Tanya Golubchik, Matthew Hall, Christophe Fraser, Robert Hinch, Luca Ferretti, Laura Thomson, Anel Nurtay, Lorenzo Pellis, Thomas House, George MacIntyre-Cockett, Amy Trebes, David Buck, Paolo Piazza, Angie Green, Lorne J Lonie, Darren Smith, Matthew Bashton, Matthew Crown, Andrew Nelson, Clare M McCann, Mohammed Adnan Tariq, Claire J Elstob, Rui Nunes Dos Santos, Zack Richards, Xin Xhang, Joseph Hawley, Mark R Lee, Priscilla Carrillo-Barragan, Isobel Chapman, Sarah Harthern-Flint, COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium, David Bonsall, and Katrina A Lythgoe

Subjects
Immunologic diseases. Allergy, RC581-607, Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

In this study, we evaluated the impact of viral variant, in addition to other variables, on within-host viral burden, by analysing cycle threshold (Ct) values derived from nose and throat swabs, collected as part of the UK COVID-19 Infection Survey. Because viral burden distributions determined from community survey data can be biased due to the impact of variant epidemiology on the time-since-infection of samples, we developed a method to explicitly adjust observed Ct value distributions to account for the expected bias. By analysing the adjusted Ct values using partial least squares regression, we found that among unvaccinated individuals with no known prior exposure, viral burden was 44% lower among Alpha variant infections, compared to those with the predecessor strain, B.1.177. Vaccination reduced viral burden by 67%, and among vaccinated individuals, viral burden was 286% higher among Delta variant, compared to Alpha variant, infections. In addition, viral burden increased by 17% for every 10-year age increment of the infected individual. In summary, within-host viral burden increases with age, is reduced by vaccination, and is influenced by the interplay of vaccination status and viral variant.

Published
2023
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7. Large-scale calibration and simulation of COVID-19 epidemiologic scenarios to support healthcare planning

Author

Nick Groves-Kirkby, Ewan Wakeman, Seema Patel, Robert Hinch, Tineke Poot, Jonathan Pearson, Lily Tang, Edward Kendall, Ming Tang, Kim Moore, Scott Stevenson, Bryn Mathias, Ilya Feige, Simon Nakach, Laura Stevenson, Paul O'Dwyer, William Probert, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, and Christophe Fraser

Subjects
Epidemiology, Modelling, Agent-based models, Model calibration, Healthcare, Data, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216
Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has provided stiff challenges for planning and resourcing in health services in the UK and worldwide. Epidemiological models can provide simulations of how infectious disease might progress in a population given certain parameters. We adapted an agent-based model of COVID-19 to inform planning and decision-making within a healthcare setting, and created a software framework that automates processes for calibrating the model parameters to health data and allows the model to be run at national population scale on National Health Service (NHS) infrastructure. We developed a method for calibrating the model to three daily data streams (hospital admissions, intensive care occupancy, and deaths), and demonstrate that on cross-validation the model fits acceptably to unseen data streams including official estimates of COVID-19 incidence. Once calibrated, we use the model to simulate future scenarios of the spread of COVID-19 in England and show that the simulations provide useful projections of future COVID-19 clinical demand. These simulations were used to support operational planning in the NHS in England, and we present the example of the use of these simulations in projecting future clinical demand during the rollout of the national COVID-19 vaccination programme. Being able to investigate uncertainty and test sensitivities was particularly important to the operational planning team. This epidemiological model operates within an ecosystem of data technologies, drawing on a range of NHS, government and academic data sources, and provides results to strategists, planners and downstream data systems. We discuss the data resources that enabled this work and the data challenges that were faced.

Published
2023
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8. Efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in Brazil

Author

Sue Ann Costa Clemens, Pedro M. Folegatti, Katherine R. W. Emary, Lily Yin Weckx, Jeremy Ratcliff, Sagida Bibi, Ana Verena De Almeida Mendes, Eveline Pipolo Milan, Ana Pittella, Alexandre V. Schwarzbold, Eduardo Sprinz, Parvinder K. Aley, David Bonsall, Christophe Fraser, Michelle Fuskova, Sarah C. Gilbert, Daniel Jenkin, Sarah Kelly, Simon Kerridge, Teresa Lambe, Natalie G. Marchevsky, Yama F. Mujadidi, Emma Plested, Maheshi N. Ramasamy, Peter Simmonds, Tanya Golubchik, Merryn Voysey, Andrew J. Pollard, the AMPHEUS Project, and Oxford COVID Vaccine Trial Team

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 raise concerns about vaccine efficiency. Here, the authors present a post-hoc analysis for the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine trial in Brazil and provide efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 caused by the Zeta (P.2) and other variants.

Published
2021
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9. Paediatric COVID-19 mortality: a database analysis of the impact of health resource disparity

Author

Nick Daneman, John Marshall, Vinod Kumar, Aasiyah Rashan, Jérôme Dimet, Sylvain Diamantis, John F Fraser, Dominique Deplanque, Anne Conrad, François Lellouche, Heidi Gruner, Detlef Kindgen-Milles, Agnes Meybeck, Maxime Hentzien, Clotilde Allavena, André Cabié, Firouzé Bani-Sadr, Patrick Rossignol, Arjen M Dondorp, Rashan Haniffa, Harald Vonkeman, Lionel Piroth, Mathieu Blot, Yaseen Arabi, Marie-Pierre Debray, François Angoulvant, Marc Leone, Maria Zambon, Florentia Kaguelidou, Marc Lambert, Olivier Lairez, Tom Solomon, Carrol Gamble, Laura Marsh, David Richardson, Christiana Kartsonaki, Philippe Jouvet, Asgar Rishu, Eman Al Qasim, Rachael Parke, Srinivas Murthy, Alistair Nichol, Calum Semple, Colin McArthur, Gail Carson, Jake Dunning, Laura Merson, Peter Horby, David Maslove, Nadia Malik, Stephen R Knight, Annelies Verbon, Oana Sândulescu, Patrick Archambault, Paul McNally, Marlene Murris, Aurore Bousquet, Kenneth A McLean, Hugues Cordel, Marc Fabre, Laurence Bouillet, Melissa Parker, Xavier Duval, Amanda Corley, James Lee, Kusum Menon, Christian Rabaud, Paul Klenerman, Jean-François Timsit, Jennifer Lee, Nicolas Terzi, Saad Nseir, Gwenhaël Colin, Steve Webb, Kalynn Kennon, Caroline Mudara, Diana Hernández, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Elias Iosifidis, Emmanuel Roilides, Yi Lin Lee, Pieter Depuydt, Jean-François Payen, Ana Martins, Samreen Ijaz, Meera Chand, Wei Shen Lim, Bruno Levy, Eric D'ortenzio, Jean-Charles Preiser, Pierre Delobel, Claudia Figueiredo-Mello, Jaques Sztajnbok, Ana Freitas Ribeiro, Tiphaine Goulenok, Bronner P Gonçalves, Arnaud Scherpereel, Chloe Donohue, Carlo Giaquinto, Karolina Nowicka, Adrien Auvet, Debby Bogaert, Elisabeth Botelho-Nevers, Amandine Gagneux-Brunon, Merce Jourdain, Anne McCarthy, Todd C Lee, António Mesquita, Sue Smith, Jia Wei, Jenny Lennon, Antoine Khalil, Nathalie Pansu, Victor Fomin, Audrey Barrelet, Christophe Fraser, Daniel Munblit, Robert A Fowler, William Greenhalf, François-Xavier Lescure, Nicolas Carlier, Saye Khoo, Riinu Pius, Lisa Norman, Louise Sigfrid, Sophie Halpin, Clare Jackson, Antonia Ho, Andrew Dagens, Thomas Flament, Julie Mankikian, Romain Basmaci, Peter Openshaw, Mary Copland, Brenda Reeve, William Dechert, Patricia Lizotte, Felwa Bin Humaid, Tom Fletcher, Adrien Lemaignen, Pierre Tattevin, Christelle Delmas, Hélène Espérou, Claire Lévy-Marchal, Olivier Picone, Jeanne Sibiude, Cecile Yelnik, Olivia V Swann, Michelle Girvan, Piero L Olliaro, Beatrice Alex, Benjamin Bach, Alexander J Mentzer, Mahdad Noursadeghi, Shona C Moore, Massimo Palmarini, Georgios Pollakis, Vanessa Sancho-Shimizu, Shiranee Sriskandan, David Stuart, Charlotte Summers, Ryan S Thwaites, Hayley Hardwick, Wilna Oosthuyzen, Fiona Griffiths, Jo Dalton, Egle Saviciute, Stephanie Roberts, Janet Harrison, Marie Connor, Gary Leeming, Ross Hendry, Victoria Shaw, Jade Ghosn, Lucille Blumberg, Nicolas Benech, James Scott-Brown, Odile Launay, Todd Karsies, Yoan Lavie-Badie, Minh Le, Elise Artaud-Macari, Mylène Maillet, Huda Alfoudri, Djura Piersma, Didier Laureillard, Graham S. Cooke, Nicholas Sedillot, Anne-Sophie Boureau, Tony Trapani, Laurent Abel, Samuel Hinton, Sally Shrapnel, Heidi Dalton, Guillaume Martin-Blondel, Valérie Garrait, Isabelle Delacroix, Samantha Lissauer, Malte Kohns Vasconcelos, Oleksa Rewa, Erlina Burhan, Sara Machado, Jean-Benoît Arlet, Raphaël Borie, Kévin Bouiller, Vincent Langlois, Mélanie Roriz, Mical Paul, Vincent Dubée, Erwan L'her, Michael Rose, Luis Felipe Reyes, Anna Beltrame, Stéphanie Fry, Andrew Udy, Laurent Plantier, Jean-Christophe Goffard, Denis Malvy, Nina Jamieson, Irfan Khan, François Dubos, Jean-Sébastien Hulot, Paola Rodari, Paul Campbell, Abigail Beane, Cécile Tromeur, Paul Loubet, Marina Esposito-Farèse, France Mentré, Valérie Gaborieau, Anne-Marie Guerguerian, Cécile Goujard, Vincent Thibault, Rodrigo Díaz, Patricia Gordon, Sadie Kelly, Bertrand Dussol, Simon Forsyth, Marion Schneider, Nathalie Gault, Marielle Buisson, Yves Levy, Prasan Kumar Panda, Marjolein Brusse-Keizer, Carine Roy, Walter Picard, Tom Drake, Paul Tierney, Olivier Sanchez, Antoine Kimmoun, David Thomson, Nathan Peiffer-Smadja, Julien Poissy, Lila Bouadma, Bruno Lina, Maude Bouscambert, Alexandre Gaymard, Gilles Peytavin, Jeremie Guedj, Claire Andrejak, Cedric Laouenan, Anissa Chair, Samira Laribi, Marie-Capucine Tellier, Sandrine Couffin-Cadiergues, Soizic Le Mestre, Ventzislava Petrov-Sanchez, Alpha Diallo, NoéMie Mercier, Sarah Tubiana, Marion Noret, Oriane Puechal, Caroline Semaille, Patrick Imbert, Jonathan Remppis, Emmanuelle Mercier, Rui Pereira, Sylvie Van Der Werf, Waasila Jassat, Arsene Kpangon, Dominique Luton, Sophie Mahy, Pierre-Adrien Bolze, Sarah Moore, Adrienne Chan, Raphael Favory, Daniel Mathieu, Andrea Angheben, Andrea Rossanese, Matthew Hall, Johann Auchabie, Mohammed Quraishi, Katharina Weil, Hanna Renk, Hans Martin Bosse, Christophe Rapp, Vincent Peigne, Tae Song, Dewi Guellec, Mark G. Pritchard, Adrian Streinu-Cercel, Christl A Donnelly, François Goehringer, Elodie Curlier, Catherine Chirouze, Stéphane Jaureguiberry, Ary Serpa Neto, Jose Andres Calvache, Laurent Bitker, Hodane Yonis, Neerusha Kaisbain, Coline Jaud-Fischer, Laurent Mandelbrot, Jérémie Pasquier, Juliette Patrier, Gianluigi Li Bassi, Sheryl Ann Abdukahil, Jia Shyi Loy, Filipe Cardoso, Diptesh Aryal, Polina Bugaeva, Evert-Jan Wils, Stephanie Yerkovich, Julie Chas, Thushan de Silva, Ruth Lyons, Murray Wham, Sara Clohisey, Seán Keating, Thibault Chiarabini, Agnes Sommet, Hugues Aumaître, Sylvie LeGac, Sarah E McDonald, Jeanne Truong, Camille Couffignal, Anne-Hélène Boivin, Timo Brandenburger, Diane Descamps, Tala Al-Dabbous, Mark Joseph, Hwa Jin Cho, Desy Rusmawatiningtyas, Muhammad Rayhan, Christel Arnold-Day, Navy Lolong, Ernita Akmal, Menaldi Rasmin, Daniel Marino, Neurinda Permata Kusumastuti, Stéphane Lasry, Amanda Rojek, Sebastien Preau, Jean-Marie Turmel, Nowneet Kumar Bhat, Cynthia Braga, Pavan Kumar Vecham, Benoit Thill, Karine Faure, Denis Garot, Grégory Corvaisier, Elsa Nyamankolly, Joshua Solomon, Emma Clarke, Patricia Fontela, Eva Geraud, Eva Miranda Marwali, Aria Kekalih, Saptadi Yuliarto, Dyah Kanya Wati, Ivy Cerelia Valerie, Maureen Masha, Jolanta Popielska, Anca Streinu-Cercel, Mohan Dass Pathmanathan, Barbara Wanjiru Citarella, Heidi Jean Dalton, Nurul Najmee Abdulkadir, Lara Absil, Subhash Acharya, Diana Adrião, Younes Ait Tamlihat, Kévin Alexandre, Kazali Enagnon Alidjnou, Nathalie Allou, Rita Alves, Joana Alves Cabrita, Maria Amaral, Nur Amira, Phoebe Ampaw, Séverine Ansart, Sivanesen Anthonidass, Carlos Alexandre Brito, Ardiyan Apriyana, Carolline Araujo, Muhammad Ashraf, Jean Baptiste Assie, Amirul Asyraf, Anika Atique, AM Udara Attanyake, Laurène Azemar, Cecile Azoulay, Delphine Bachelet, Claudine Badr, J. Kenneth Baillie, Nazreen Abu Bakar, Mohanaprasanth Balakrishnan, Valeria Balan, Renata Barbalho, Wendy S. Barclay, Saef Umar Barnett, Marie Bartoli, Joaquín Baruch, Muhammad Fadhli Basri, Jules Bauer, Diego Fernando Rincon, Alexandra Bedossa, Ker Hong Bee, Husna Begum, Sylvie Behilill, Albertus Beishuizen, Marine Beluze, Lionel Eric Benjiman, Dehbia Benkerrou, Delphine Bergeaud, José Luis Sobrino, Giulia Bertoli, Simon Bessis, Sybille Bevilcaqua, Karine Bezulier, Krishna Bhavsar, Farah Nadiah Bidin, Mohd Nazlin Kamarudin, François Bissuel, Jonathan Bitton, Laetitia Bodenes, Isabela Bolaños, François Bompart, Diogo Borges, Olivier Bouchaud, Sabelline Bouchez, Dounia Bouhmani, Damien Bouhour, Camile Bouisse, Jason Bouziotis, Bianca Boxma, Marielle Boyer-Besseyre, Fernando Augusto Bozza, Axelle Braconnier, Kathy Brickell, Aidan Burrell, Ingrid G Bustos, Denis Butnaru, Eder Caceres, Cyril Cadoz, Rui Caetano Garcês, Valentine Campana, Pauline Caraux-Paz, Chiara Simona Cardellino, Sofia Cardoso, Filipa Cardoso, Thierry Carmoi, Marie-Christine Carret, François Martin Carrier, Maire-Laure Casanova, Mariana Cascão, José Casimiro, Nidyanara Castanheira, Guylaine Castor-Alexandre, François-Xavier Catherine, Paolo Cattaneo, Roberta Cavalin, Minerva Cervantes-Gonzalez, Catherine Chakveatze, Christelle Chantalat Auger, Jean-Marc Chapplain, Anjellica Chen, Matthew Pellan Cheng, Antoine Cheret, Julian Chica, Suresh Kumar Chidambaram, Leong Chin Tho, Bernard Cholley, Marie-Charlotte Chopin, Ting Soo Chow, Hiu Jian Chua, Jonathan Chua, Alexandra Coelho, Megan Coles, Pamela Combs, Sabine Cornelis, Alexander Daniel Cornet, Arianne Joy Corpuz, Emma Costigan, Roxane Courtois, Stéphanie Cousse, Rachel Cregan, Sabine Croonen, Claudina Cruz, Juan Luis Bermúdez, Jaime Cruz Rojo, Paula Custodio, Ana Silva Filipe, Charlene Da Silveira, Juliana Damas, Corinne Daniel, Emmanuelle A Dankwa, Jorge Dantas, Etienne De Montmollin, Rafael Freitas França, Peter de Vries, Jillian Deacon, Alexa Debard, Nathalie DeCastro, Lauren Deconninck, Romain Decours, Eve Defous, Eric Delaveuve, Karen Delavigne, Corine Delsing, Elisa Demonchy, Emmanuelle Denis, Mathilde Desvallées, Santi Dewayanti, Pathik Dhanger, André Dias, Kévin Didier, Jean-Luc Diehl, Wim Dieperink, Vincent Dinot, Fara Diop, Alphonsine Diouf, Yael Dishon, Félix Djossou, Annemarie B. Docherty, Maria Donnelly, Céline Dorival, James Joshua Douglas, Nathalie Dournon, Murray Dryden, Claudio Duarte Fonseca, Alexandre Ducancelle, Paul Dunand, Sim Choon Ean, Mohammed El Sanharawi, Brigitte Elharrar, Philippine Eloy, Isabelle Enderle, Chan Chee Eng, Ilka Engelmann, Vincent Enouf, Olivier Epaulard, Martina Escher, Catarina Espírito Santo, João Estevão, Manuel Etienne, Nadia Ettalhaoui, Mirjam Evers, Isabelle Fabre, Amna Faheem, Arabella Fahy, Cameron J. Fairfield, Pedro Faria, Ahmed Farooq, Hanan Fateena, Jorge Fernandes, Marília Andreia Fernandes, François-Xavier Ferrand, Eglantine Ferrand Devouge, Joana Ferrão, Mário Ferraz, Bernardo Ferreira, Nicolas Ferriere, Céline Ficko, Clara Flateau, Tatiana Fonseca, Erwan Fourn, Robert A. Fowler, Marcela Vieira Freire, Rostane Gaci, Jean-Charles Gagnard, Yasmin Gani, Noelia García Barrio, Esteban Garcia-Gallo, Louis Gerbaud Morlaes, Nuno Germano, Jess Gibson, Tristan Gigante, Morgane Gilg, Guillermo Giordano, Valérie Gissot, Daniel Glikman, Petr Glybochko, Geraldine Goco, Siri Goepel, Jin Yi Goh, Marie Gominet, Bronner P. Gonçalves, Isabelle Gorenne, Laure Goubert, Pascal Granier, Christopher A. Green, Courtney Greene, Segolène Greffe, Albert Groenendijk, Anja Grosse Lordemann, Yusing Gu, Martin Guego, Daniela Guerreiro, Romain Guery, Anne Guillaumot, Laurent Guilleminault, Thomas Guimard, Marieke Haalboom, Daniel Haber, Hannah Habraken, Ali Hachemi, Nadir Hadri, Fakhir Haidri, Ansley Hamer, Rebecca Hamidfar, Lim Yuen Han, Kok Wei Hao, Ewen M. Harrison, Lars Heggelund, Astarini Hidayah, Rupert Higgins, Hikombo Hitoto, Yi Bin Ho, Alexandre Hoctin, Isabelle Hoffmann, Wei Han Hoh, Ikram Houas, Catherine L. Hough, Jimmy Ming-Yang Hsu, Arfan Ikram, Hajnal-Gabriela Illes, Hugo Inácio, Yun Sii Ing, Sarah Isgett, Tiago Isidoro, Nadiah Ismail, Margaux Isnard, Danielle Jaafar, Salma Jaafoura, Julien Jabot, Pierre Jaquet, Florence Jego, Anilawati Mat Jelani, Ong Yiaw Joe, Cédric Joseph, Swosti Joshi, Dafsah Juzar, Ouifiya Kafif, Thavamany Kaleesvran, Sabina Kali, Muhammad Aisar Kamaluddin, Zul Amali Kamaruddin, Nadiah Kamarudin, Kong Yeow Kang, Pratap Karpayah, Anant Kataria, Kevin Katz, Yvelynne Kelly, Younes Kerroumi, Sharma Keshav, Coralie Khan, Quratul Ain Khan, Sushil Khanal, Abid Khatak, Ryan Khoo, Denisa Khoo, Khor How Kiat, Peter Kiiza, Rob Klont, Gry Kloumann Bekken, Robin Kobbe, Chamira Kodippily, Vinothini Krishnan, Ganesh Kumar, Bharath Kumar Vijayaraghavan, Demetrios Kutsogiannis, Marie Lachatre, Marie Lacoste, Marie Lagrange, Fabrice Laine, Antonio Lalueza, Marie Langelot-Richard, Marina Lanza, Delphine Lariviere, Andy Law, Teresa Lawrence, Clément Le Bihan, Cyril Le Bris, Georges Le Falher, Lucie Le Fevre, Quentin Le Hingrat, Marion Le Maréchal, Gwenaël Le Moal, Vincent Le Moing, Hervé Le Nagard, Paul Le Turnier, Ema Leal, Marta Leal Santos, Heng Gee Lee, Biing Horng Lee, Laurent Lefebvre, Bénédicte Lefebvre, Benjamin Lefèvre, Jean-Daniel Lelievre, Véronique Lemee, Anthony Lemeur, Ha Sha Lene, Quentin Lepiller, Olivier Lesens, Mathieu Lesouhaitier, Geoffrey Liegeon, Kah Chuan Lim, Lim Lina, Guillaume Lingas, Sylvie Lion-Daolio, Marine Livrozet, Leong Chee Loon, Diogo Lopes, Anthony L. Loschner, Bouchra Loufti, Guillame Louis, Lee Lee Low, Marije Lowik, Jean Christophe Lucet, Carlos Lumbreras Bermejo, Liem Luong, Oryane Mabiala, Moïse Machado, Gabriel Macheda, Hashmi Madiha, Guillermo Maestro de la Calle, Rafael Mahieu, Thomas Maitre, Fernando Maltez, Victoria Manda, Jose M. Mandei, Edmund Manning, Aldric Manuel, Ceila Sant'Ana Malaque, Samuel Markowicz, Celina Turchi Martelli, Martin Martinot, Caroline Martins Rego, Marsilla Marzukie, Sabina Mason, Sobia Masood, Basri Mat Nor, Moshe Matan, Mathieu Mattei, Romans Matulevics, Laurence Maulin, Thierry Mazzoni, Cécile Mear-Passard, Ogechukwu Menkiti, Antoine Merckx, Mayka Mergeay-Fabre, Alison M. Meynert, Vanina Meysonnier, Amina Meziane, Mehdi Mezidi, Céline Michelanglei, Isabelle Michelet, Nor Arisah Misnan, Tahira Jamal Mohamed, Nik Nur Mohamed, Asma Moin, Agostinho Monteiro, Claudia Montes, Lina Morales Cely, Lucia Moro, Hugo Mouquet Ben Morton, Clara Mouton Perrot, Julien Moyet, Ng Yong Muh, Dzawani Muhamad, Jimmy Mullaert, Karl Erik Müller, Himed Musaab, Himasha Muvindi, Gugapriyaa Muyandy, Nadège Neant, Nikita Nekliudov, Raul Neto, Anthony Nghi, Duc Nguyen, Nurul Amani Noordin, Nurul Faten Norharizam, Nurnaningsih Nurnaningsih, Annmarie O'Callaghan, Katie O'Hearn, Agnieszka Oldakowska, Piero L. Olliaro, David S.Y. Ong, Jee Yan Ong, Saijad Orakzai, Claudia Milena Orozco-Chamorro, Linda O'Shea, Siti Zubaidah Othman, Nadia Ouamara, Rachida Ouissa, Eric Oziol, Justine Pages Maïder Pagadoy, Lai Hui Pang, Aurélie Papadopoulos, Bruno Pastene, Christelle Paul, Jorge Paulos, William A. Paxton, Kalaiarasu Peariasamy, Miguel Pedrera Jiménez, Florent Peelman, Ithan D. Peltan, Daniel Perez, Thomas Perpoint, Vincent Pestre, Michele Petrovic, Scott Pharand, Carola Pierobon, Carlos Pimentel, Raquel Pinto, Catarina Pires, Isabelle Pironneau, Hon Shen Png, Ryadh Pokeerbux, Maria Pokorska-Spiewak, Diane Ponscarme, Douwe F. Postma, Diana Póvoas, Gamage Dona Priyadarshani, Vilmaris Quinones-Cardona, Víctor Quirós González, Marie Rafiq, Rozanah Abd Rahman, Ahmad Kashfi Rahman, Giri Shan Rajahram, Nagarajan Ramakrishnan, José Ramalho, Ahmad Afiq Ramli, Blandine Rammaert, Grazielle Viana Ramos, Thalha Rashan, Cornelius Rau, Tharmini Ravi, Stanislas Rebaudet, Sarah Redl, Attaur Rehman, Martine Remy, Hongru Ren, Anne-Sophie Resseguier, Matthieu Revest, Laurent Richier, Siti Nurul Ridzuan, Ana L Rios, Patrick Rispal, Karine Risso, David L. Robertson, Olivier Robineau, Pierre-Marie Roger, Juliette Romaru, Manuel Rosa-Calatrava, Bénédicte Rossignol, Stella Rousset, Benoît Roze, Clark D. Russell, Musharaf Sadat, Valla Sahraei, Maximilien Saint-Gilles, Stéphane Sallaberry, Charlotte Salmon Gandonniere, Hélène Salvator, Zulfiqar Sandhu, Pierre-François Sandrine, Shirley Sarfo-Mensah, Benjamine Sarton, Parthena Savvidou, Yen Tsen Saw, Janet T. Scott, Jaganathan Selvanayagam, Mageswari Selvarajoo, Malcolm G. Semple, Rasidah Bt Senian, Eric Senneville, Tânia Sequeira, Pablo Serrano Balazote, Ellen Shadowitz, Syamin Asyraf Shahidan, Mohammad Shamsah, Shaikh Sharjeel, Catherine A. Shaw, Ashraf Sheharyar, Mohiuddin Shiekh, Nassima Si Mohammed, Ng Yong Siang, Benedict Sim Heng, Karisha Sivam, Morgane Snacken, Tze Vee Soh, Rima Song, Azlan Mat Soom, Albert Sotto, B. P Edouard Soum, Sanka Sri Darshana, Sarah Stabler, Ymkje Stienstra, Jacky Y. Suen, Deepashankari Suppiah, Andrey Svistunov, Sarah Syahrin, Shirin Tabrizi, Fabio S. Taccone, Lysa Tagherset, Shahdattul Mawarni Taib, Ewa Talarek, Kim Keat Tan, Yan Chyi Tan, Coralie Tardivon, M Azhari Taufik, Richard S. Tedder, Tze Yuan Tee, João Teixeira, Sze Kye Teoh, François Téoulé, Olivier Terrier, Hubert Tessier-Grenier, Alif Adlan Thabit, Zhang Duan Tham, Suvintheran Thangavelu, Simon-Djamel Thiberville, Jananee Thirumanickam, Emma C. Thomson, Surain Raaj Thurai, Peter S Timashev, Noémie Tissot, Jordan Zhien Toh, Sia Loong Tonnii, Marta Torre, Margarida Torres, Théo Treoux, Tiffany Trouillon, Christelle Tual, Lance C.W. Turtle, PG Ishara Udayanga, Timothy M. Uyeki, Luís Val-Flores, Amélie Valran, Marcel van den Berge, Job van der Palen, Paul van der Valk, Peter Van der Voort, Jarne Van Hattem, Carolien van Netten, Ilonka van Veen, Noémie Vanel, Shoban Raj Vasudayan, Charline Vauchy, Shaminee Veeran, Aurélie Veislinger, James Vickers, José Ernesto Vidal, César Vieira, Benoit Visseaux, Fanny Vuotto, Noor Hidayu Wahab, Suhaila Abdul Wahab, Nadirah Abdul Wahid, Tan Pei Wen, Sanne Wesselius, Nicole White, Paul Henri Wicky, Aurélie Wiedemann, Calvin Wong, Xin Ci Wong, Yew Sing Wong, Teck Fung Wong, Gan Ee Xian, Lim Saio Xian, Kuan Pei Xuan, Siti Rohani Yakop, Nicholas Yee Hing, Chian Hui Yeoh, Obada Yousif, Marion Zabbe, Masliza Zahid, Maram Zahran, Nor Zaila Zaidan, Konrad Zawadka, Nurul Zaynah, Hiba Zayyad, and David Zucman

Subjects
Pediatrics, RJ1-570
Abstract

Background The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on paediatric populations varied between high-income countries (HICs) versus low-income to middle-income countries (LMICs). We sought to investigate differences in paediatric clinical outcomes and identify factors contributing to disparity between countries.Methods The International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 database was queried to include children under 19 years of age admitted to hospital from January 2020 to April 2021 with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis. Univariate and multivariable analysis of contributing factors for mortality were assessed by country group (HICs vs LMICs) as defined by the World Bank criteria.Results A total of 12 860 children (3819 from 21 HICs and 9041 from 15 LMICs) participated in this study. Of these, 8961 were laboratory-confirmed and 3899 suspected COVID-19 cases. About 52% of LMICs children were black, and more than 40% were infants and adolescent. Overall in-hospital mortality rate (95% CI) was 3.3% [=(3.0% to 3.6%), higher in LMICs than HICs (4.0% (3.6% to 4.4%) and 1.7% (1.3% to 2.1%), respectively). There were significant differences between country income groups in intervention profile, with higher use of antibiotics, antivirals, corticosteroids, prone positioning, high flow nasal cannula, non-invasive and invasive mechanical ventilation in HICs. Out of the 439 mechanically ventilated children, mortality occurred in 106 (24.1%) subjects, which was higher in LMICs than HICs (89 (43.6%) vs 17 (7.2%) respectively). Pre-existing infectious comorbidities (tuberculosis and HIV) and some complications (bacterial pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome and myocarditis) were significantly higher in LMICs compared with HICs. On multivariable analysis, LMIC as country income group was associated with increased risk of mortality (adjusted HR 4.73 (3.16 to 7.10)).Conclusion Mortality and morbidities were higher in LMICs than HICs, and it may be attributable to differences in patient demographics, complications and access to supportive and treatment modalities.

Published
2022
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10. EpiBeds: Data informed modelling of the COVID-19 hospital burden in England.

Author

Christopher E Overton, Lorenzo Pellis, Helena B Stage, Francesca Scarabel, Joshua Burton, Christophe Fraser, Ian Hall, Thomas A House, Chris Jewell, Anel Nurtay, Filippo Pagani, and Katrina A Lythgoe

Subjects
Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic put considerable strain on healthcare systems worldwide. In order to predict the effect of the local epidemic on hospital capacity in England, we used a variety of data streams to inform the construction and parameterisation of a hospital progression model, EpiBeds, which was coupled to a model of the generalised epidemic. In this model, individuals progress through different pathways (e.g. may recover, die, or progress to intensive care and recover or die) and data from a partially complete patient-pathway line-list was used to provide initial estimates of the mean duration that individuals spend in the different hospital compartments. We then fitted EpiBeds using complete data on hospital occupancy and hospital deaths, enabling estimation of the proportion of individuals that follow the different clinical pathways, the reproduction number of the generalised epidemic, and to make short-term predictions of hospital bed demand. The construction of EpiBeds makes it straightforward to adapt to different patient pathways and settings beyond England. As part of the UK response to the pandemic, EpiBeds provided weekly forecasts to the NHS for hospital bed occupancy and admissions in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland at national and regional scales.

Published
2022
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11. Estimating the potential to prevent locally acquired HIV infections in a UNAIDS Fast-Track City, Amsterdam

Author

Alexandra Blenkinsop, Mélodie Monod, Ard van Sighem, Nikos Pantazis, Daniela Bezemer, Eline Op de Coul, Thijs van de Laar, Christophe Fraser, Maria Prins, Peter Reiss, Godelieve J de Bree, Oliver Ratmann, and On behalf of HIV Transmission Elimination AMsterdam (H-TEAM) collaboration

Subjects
HIV-1, phylogenetics, transmission chains, introduction, migration, Medicine, Science, Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

Background: More than 300 cities including the city of Amsterdam in the Netherlands have joined the UNAIDS Fast-Track Cities initiative, committing to accelerate their HIV response and end the AIDS epidemic in cities by 2030. To support this commitment, we aimed to estimate the number and proportion of Amsterdam HIV infections that originated within the city, from Amsterdam residents. We also aimed to estimate the proportion of recent HIV infections during the 5-year period 2014–2018 in Amsterdam that remained undiagnosed. Methods: We located diagnosed HIV infections in Amsterdam using postcode data (PC4) at time of registration in the ATHENA observational HIV cohort, and used HIV sequence data to reconstruct phylogeographically distinct, partially observed Amsterdam transmission chains. Individual-level infection times were estimated from biomarker data, and used to date the phylogenetically observed transmission chains as well as to estimate undiagnosed proportions among recent infections. A Bayesian Negative Binomial branching process model was used to estimate the number, size, and growth of the unobserved Amsterdam transmission chains from the partially observed phylogenetic data. Results: Between 1 January 2014 and 1 May 2019, there were 846 HIV diagnoses in Amsterdam residents, of whom 516 (61%) were estimated to have been infected in 2014–2018. The rate of new Amsterdam diagnoses since 2014 (104 per 100,000) remained higher than the national rates excluding Amsterdam (24 per 100,000), and in this sense Amsterdam remained a HIV hotspot in the Netherlands. An estimated 14% [12–16%] of infections in Amsterdan MSM in 2014–2018 remained undiagnosed by 1 May 2019, and 41% [35–48%] in Amsterdam heterosexuals, with variation by region of birth. An estimated 67% [60–74%] of Amsterdam MSM infections in 2014–2018 had an Amsterdam resident as source, and 56% [41–70%] in Amsterdam heterosexuals, with heterogeneity by region of birth. Of the locally acquired infections, an estimated 43% [37–49%] were in foreign-born MSM, 41% [35–47%] in Dutch-born MSM, 10% [6–18%] in foreign-born heterosexuals, and 5% [2–9%] in Dutch-born heterosexuals. We estimate the majority of Amsterdam MSM infections in 2014–2018 originated in transmission chains that pre-existed by 2014. Conclusions: This combined phylogenetic, epidemiologic, and modelling analysis in the UNAIDS Fast-Track City Amsterdam indicates that there remains considerable potential to prevent HIV infections among Amsterdam residents through city-level interventions. The burden of locally acquired infection remains concentrated in MSM, and both Dutch-born and foreign-born MSM would likely benefit most from intensified city-level interventions. Funding: This study received funding as part of the H-TEAM initiative from Aidsfonds (project number P29701). The H-TEAM initiative is being supported by Aidsfonds (grant number: 2013169, P29701, P60803), Stichting Amsterdam Dinner Foundation, Bristol-Myers Squibb International Corp. (study number: AI424-541), Gilead Sciences Europe Ltd (grant number: PA-HIV-PREP-16-0024), Gilead Sciences (protocol numbers: CO-NL-276-4222, CO-US-276-1712, CO-NL-985-6195), and M.A.C AIDS Fund.

Published
2022
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12. Evaluating whole HIV-1 genome sequence for estimation of incidence and migration in a rural South African community [version 1; peer review: 1 approved, 2 approved with reservations]

Author

Erik Volz, Anne Derache, Tanya Golubchik, Christophe Fraser, Fabrícia F Nascimento, Siva Danaviah, and Manon Ragonnet-Cronin

Subjects
HIV, phylodynamics, eng, Medicine, Science
Abstract

Background: South Africa has the largest number of people living with HIV (PLWHIV) in the world, with HIV prevalence and transmission patterns varying greatly between provinces. Transmission between regions is still poorly understood, but phylodynamics of HIV-1 evolution can reveal how many infections are attributable to contacts outside a given community. We analysed whole genome HIV-1 genetic sequences to estimate incidence and the proportion of transmissions between communities in Hlabisa, a rural South African community. Methods: We separately analysed HIV-1 for gag, pol, and env genes sampled from 2,503 PLWHIV. We estimated time-scaled phylogenies by maximum likelihood under a molecular clock model. Phylodynamic models were fitted to time-scaled trees to estimate transmission rates, effective number of infections, incidence through time, and the proportion of infections imported to Hlabisa. We also partitioned time-scaled phylogenies with significantly different distributions of coalescent times. Results: Phylodynamic analyses showed similar trends in epidemic growth rates between 1980 and 1990. Model-based estimates of incidence and effective number of infections were consistent across genes. Parameter estimates with gag were generally smaller than those estimated with pol and env. When estimating the proportions of new infections in Hlabisa from immigration or transmission from external sources, our posterior median estimates were 85% (95% credible interval (CI) = 78%–92%) for gag, 62% (CI = 40%–78%) for pol, and 77% (CI = 58%–90%) for env in 2015. Analysis of phylogenetic partitions by gene showed that most close global reference sequences clustered within a single partition. This suggests local evolving epidemics or potential unmeasured heterogeneity in the population. Conclusions: We estimated consistent epidemic dynamic trends for gag, pol and env genes using phylodynamic models. There was a high probability that new infections were not attributable to endogenous transmission within Hlabisa, suggesting high inter-connectedness between communities in rural South Africa.

Published
2022
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13. Modeling the effect of exposure notification and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in Washington state

Author

Matthew Abueg, Robert Hinch, Neo Wu, Luyang Liu, William Probert, Austin Wu, Paul Eastham, Yusef Shafi, Matt Rosencrantz, Michael Dikovsky, Zhao Cheng, Anel Nurtay, Lucie Abeler-Dörner, David Bonsall, Michael V. McConnell, Shawn O’Banion, and Christophe Fraser

Subjects
Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7
Abstract

Abstract Contact tracing is increasingly used to combat COVID-19, and digital implementations are now being deployed, many based on Apple and Google’s Exposure Notification System. These systems utilize non-traditional smartphone-based technology, presenting challenges in understanding possible outcomes. In this work, we create individual-based models of three Washington state counties to explore how digital exposure notifications combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions influence COVID-19 disease spread under various adoption, compliance, and mobility scenarios. In a model with 15% participation, we found that exposure notification could reduce infections and deaths by approximately 8% and 6% and could effectively complement traditional contact tracing. We believe this can provide health authorities in Washington state and beyond with guidance on how exposure notification can complement traditional interventions to suppress the spread of COVID-19.

Published
2021
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14. Deep-sequence phylogenetics to quantify patterns of HIV transmission in the context of a universal testing and treatment trial – BCPP/Ya Tsie trial

Author

Lerato E Magosi, Yinfeng Zhang, Tanya Golubchik, Victor DeGruttola, Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen, Vladimir Novitsky, Janet Moore, Pam Bachanas, Tebogo Segolodi, Refeletswe Lebelonyane, Molly Pretorius Holme, Sikhulile Moyo, Joseph Makhema, Shahin Lockman, Christophe Fraser, Myron Max Essex, Marc Lipsitch, and On behalf of The Botswana Combination Prevention Project and PANGEA consortium

Subjects
HIV transmission, phylogenetics, epidemiology, universal test, bumblebee, HIV prevention, Medicine, Science, Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

Background: Mathematical models predict that community-wide access to HIV testing-and-treatment can rapidly and substantially reduce new HIV infections. Yet several large universal test-and-treat HIV prevention trials in high-prevalence epidemics demonstrated variable reduction in population-level incidence. Methods: To elucidate patterns of HIV spread in universal test-and-treat trials, we quantified the contribution of geographic-location, gender, age, and randomized-HIV-intervention to HIV transmissions in the 30-community Ya Tsie trial in Botswana. We sequenced HIV viral whole genomes from 5114 trial participants among the 30 trial communities. Results: Deep-sequence phylogenetic analysis revealed that most inferred HIV transmissions within the trial occurred within the same or between neighboring communities, and between similarly aged partners. Transmissions into intervention communities from control communities were more common than the reverse post-baseline (30% [12.2 – 56.7] vs. 3% [0.1 – 27.3]) than at baseline (7% [1.5 – 25.3] vs. 5% [0.9 – 22.9]) compatible with a benefit from treatment-as-prevention. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that population mobility patterns are fundamental to HIV transmission dynamics and to the impact of HIV control strategies. Funding: This study was supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U54GM088558), the Fogarty International Center (FIC) of the U.S. National Institutes of Health (D43 TW009610), and the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (Cooperative agreements U01 GH000447 and U2G GH001911).

Published
2022
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15. Systematic selection between age and household structure for models aimed at emerging epidemic predictions

Author

Lorenzo Pellis, Simon Cauchemez, Neil M. Ferguson, and Christophe Fraser

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Models of emerging epidemics can be exceedingly helpful in planning the response, but early on model selection is a difficult task. Here, the authors explore the joint contribution of age stratification and household structure on epidemic spread, and provides a rule of thumb to guide model choice.

Published
2020
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16. The impact of viral mutations on recognition by SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells

Author

Thushan I. de Silva, Guihai Liu, Benjamin B. Lindsey, Danning Dong, Shona C. Moore, Nienyun Sharon Hsu, Dhruv Shah, Dannielle Wellington, Alexander J. Mentzer, Adrienn Angyal, Rebecca Brown, Matthew D. Parker, Zixi Ying, Xuan Yao, Lance Turtle, Susanna Dunachie, Mala K. Maini, Graham Ogg, Julian C. Knight, Yanchun Peng, Sarah L. Rowland-Jones, Tao Dong, David M. Aanensen, Khalil Abudahab, Helen Adams, Alexander Adams, Safiah Afifi, Dinesh Aggarwal, Shazaad S.Y. Ahmad, Louise Aigrain, Adela Alcolea-Medina, Nabil-Fareed Alikhan, Elias Allara, Roberto Amato, Tara Annett, Stephen Aplin, Cristina V. Ariani, Hibo Asad, Amy Ash, Paula Ashfield, Fiona Ashford, Laura Atkinson, Stephen W. Attwood, Cressida Auckland, Alp Aydin, David J. Baker, Paul Baker, Carlos E. Balcazar, Jonathan Ball, Jeffrey C. Barrett, Magdalena Barrow, Edward Barton, Matthew Bashton, Andrew R. Bassett, Rahul Batra, Chris Baxter, Nadua Bayzid, Charlotte Beaver, Angela H. Beckett, Shaun M. Beckwith, Luke Bedford, Robert Beer, Andrew Beggs, Katherine L. Bellis, Louise Berry, Beatrice Bertolusso, Angus Best, Emma Betteridge, David Bibby, Kelly Bicknell, Debbie Binns, Alec Birchley, Paul W. Bird, Chloe Bishop, Rachel Blacow, Victoria Blakey, Beth Blane, Frances Bolt, James Bonfield, Stephen Bonner, David Bonsall, Tim Boswell, Andrew Bosworth, Yann Bourgeois, Olivia Boyd, Declan T. Bradley, Cassie Breen, Catherine Bresner, Judith Breuer, Stephen Bridgett, Iraad F. Bronner, Ellena Brooks, Alice Broos, Julianne R. Brown, Giselda Bucca, Sarah L. Buchan, David Buck, Matthew Bull, Phillipa J. Burns, Shirelle Burton-Fanning, Timothy Byaruhanga, Matthew Byott, Sharon Campbell, Alessandro M. Carabelli, James S. Cargill, Matthew Carlile, Silvia F. Carvalho, Anna Casey, Anibolina Castigador, Jana Catalan, Vicki Chalker, Nicola J. Chaloner, Meera Chand, Joseph G. Chappell, Themoula Charalampous, Wendy Chatterton, Yasmin Chaudhry, Carol M. Churcher, Gemma Clark, Phillip Clarke, Benjamin J. Cogger, Kevin Cole, Jennifer Collins, Rachel Colquhoun, Thomas R. Connor, Kate F. Cook, Jason Coombes, Sally Corden, Claire Cormie, Nicholas Cortes, Marius Cotic, Seb Cotton, Simon Cottrell, Lindsay Coupland, MacGregor Cox, Alison Cox, Noel Craine, Liam Crawford, Aidan Cross, Matthew R. Crown, Dorian Crudgington, Nicola Cumley, Tanya Curran, Martin D. Curran, Ana da Silva Filipe, Gavin Dabrera, Alistair C. Darby, Rose K. Davidson, Alisha Davies, Robert M. Davies, Thomas Davis, Daniela de Angelis, Elen De Lacy, Leonardo de Oliveira Martins, Johnny Debebe, Rebecca Denton-Smith, Samir Dervisevic, Rebecca Dewar, Jayasree Dey, Joana Dias, Donald Dobie, Matthew J. Dorman, Fatima Downing, Megan Driscoll, Louis du Plessis, Nichola Duckworth, Jillian Durham, Kirstine Eastick, Lisa J. Easton, Richard Eccles, Jonathan Edgeworth, Sue Edwards, Kate El Bouzidi, Sahar Eldirdiri, Nicholas Ellaby, Scott Elliott, Gary Eltringham, Leah Ensell, Michelle J. Erkiert, Marina Escalera Zamudio, Sarah Essex, Johnathan M. Evans, Cariad Evans, William Everson, Derek J. Fairley, Karlie Fallon, Arezou Fanaie, Ben W. Farr, Christopher Fearn, Theresa Feltwell, Lynne Ferguson, Laia Fina, Flavia Flaviani, Vicki M. Fleming, Sally Forrest, Ebenezer Foster-Nyarko, Benjamin H. Foulkes, Luke Foulser, Mireille Fragakis, Dan Frampton, Sarah Francois, Christophe Fraser, Timothy M. Freeman, Helen Fryer, Marc Fuchs, William Fuller, Kavitha Gajee, Katerina Galai, Abbie Gallagher, Eileen Gallagher, Michael D. Gallagher, Marta Gallis, Amy Gaskin, Bree Gatica-Wilcox, Lily Geidelberg, Matthew Gemmell, Iliana Georgana, Ryan P. George, Laura Gifford, Lauren Gilbert, Sophia T. Girgis, Sharon Glaysher, Emily J. Goldstein, Tanya Golubchik, Andrea N. Gomes, Sónia Gonçalves, Ian G. Goodfellow, Scott Goodwin, Salman Goudarzi, Marina Gourtovaia, Clive Graham, Lee Graham, Paul R. Grant, Luke R. Green, Angie Green, Jane Greenaway, Richard Gregory, Martyn Guest, Rory N. Gunson, Ravi K. Gupta, Bernardo Gutierrez, Sam T. Haldenby, William L. Hamilton, Samantha E. Hansford, Tanzina Haque, Kathryn A. Harris, Ian Harrison, Ewan M. Harrison, Jennifer Hart, John A. Hartley, William T. Harvey, Matthew Harvey, Mohammed O. Hassan-Ibrahim, Judith Heaney, Thomas Helmer, John H. Henderson, Andrew R. Hesketh, Jessica Hey, David Heyburn, Ellen E. Higginson, Verity Hill, Jack D. Hill, Rachel A. Hilson, Ember Hilvers, Matthew T.G. Holden, Amy Hollis, Christopher W. Holmes, Nadine Holmes, Alison H. Holmes, Richard Hopes, Hailey R. Hornsby, Myra Hosmillo, Catherine Houlihan, Hannah C. Howson-Wells, Jonathan Hubb, Hannah Huckson, Warwick Hughes, Joseph Hughes, Margaret Hughes, Stephanie Hutchings, Giles Idle, Chris J. Illingworth, Robert Impey, Dianne Irish-Tavares, Miren Iturriza-Gomara, Rhys Izuagbe, Chris Jackson, Ben Jackson, Leigh M. Jackson, Kathryn A. Jackson, David K. Jackson, Aminu S. Jahun, Victoria James, Keith James, Christopher Jeanes, Aaron R. Jeffries, Sarah Jeremiah, Andrew Jermy, Michaela John, Rob Johnson, Kate Johnson, Ian Johnston, Owen Jones, Sophie Jones, Hannah Jones, Christopher R. Jones, Neil Jones, Amelia Joseph, Sarah Judges, Gemma L. Kay, Sally Kay, Jon-Paul Keatley, Alexander J. Keeley, Anita Kenyon, Leanne M. Kermack, Manjinder Khakh, Stephen P. Kidd, Maimuna Kimuli, Stuart Kirk, Christine Kitchen, Katie Kitchman, Bridget A. Knight, Cherian Koshy, Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Sara Kumziene-Summerhayes, Dominic Kwiatkowski, Angie Lackenby, Kenneth G. Laing, Temi Lampejo, Cordelia F. Langford, Deborah Lavin, Andrew I. Lawton, Jack Lee, David Lee, Stefanie V. Lensing, Steven Leonard, Lisa J. Levett, Thanh Le-Viet, Jonathan Lewis, Kevin Lewis, Jennifier Liddle, Steven Liggett, Patrick J. Lillie, Michelle M. Lister, Rich Livett, Stephanie Lo, Nicholas J. Loman, Matthew W. Loose, Stavroula F. Louka, Katie F. Loveson, Sarah Lowdon, Hannah Lowe, Helen L. Lowe, Anita O. Lucaci, Catherine Ludden, Jessica Lynch, Ronan A. Lyons, Katrina Lythgoe, Nicholas W. Machin, George MacIntyre-Cockett, Andrew Mack, Ben Macklin, Alasdair Maclean, Emily Macnaughton, Pinglawathee Madona, Mailis Maes, Laurentiu Maftei, Adhyana I.K. Mahanama, Tabitha W. Mahungu, Daniel Mair, Joshua Maksimovic, Cassandra S. Malone, Daniel Maloney, Nikos Manesis, Robin Manley, Anna Mantzouratou, Angela Marchbank, Arun Mariappan, Inigo Martincorena, Rocio T. Martinez Nunez, Alison E. Mather, Patrick Maxwell, Megan Mayhew, Tamyo Mbisa, Clare M. McCann, Shane A. McCarthy, Kathryn McCluggage, Patrick C. McClure, J.T. McCrone, Martin P. McHugh, James P. McKenna, Caoimhe McKerr, Georgina M. McManus, Claire L. McMurray, Claire McMurray, Alan McNally, Lizzie Meadows, Nathan Medd, Oliver Megram, Mirko Menegazzo, Ian Merrick, Stephen L. Michell, Michelle L. Michelsen, Mariyam Mirfenderesky, Jeremy Mirza, Julia Miskelly, Emma Moles-Garcia, Robin J. Moll, Zoltan Molnar, Irene M. Monahan, Matteo Mondani, Siddharth Mookerjee, Christopher Moore, Jonathan Moore, Nathan Moore, Catherine Moore, Helen Morcrette, Sian Morgan, Mari Morgan, Matilde Mori, Arthur Morriss, Samuel Moses, Craig Mower, Peter Muir, Afrida Mukaddas, Florence Munemo, Robert Munn, Abigail Murray, Leanne J. Murray, Darren R. Murray, Manasa Mutingwende, Richard Myers, Eleni Nastouli, Gaia Nebbia, Andrew Nelson, Charlotte Nelson, Sam Nicholls, Jenna Nichols, Roberto Nicodemi, Kyriaki Nomikou, Justin O’Grady, Sarah O'Brien, Mina Odedra, Natasha Ohemeng-Kumi, Karen Oliver, Richard J. Orton, Husam Osman, xeine O'Toole, Nicole Pacchiarini, Debra Padgett, Andrew J. Page, Emily J. Park, Naomi R. Park, Surendra Parmar, David G. Partridge, David Pascall, Amita Patel, Bindi Patel, Steve Paterson, Brendan A.I. Payne, Sharon J. Peacock, Clare Pearson, Emanuela Pelosi, Benita Percival, Jon Perkins, Malorie Perry, Malte L. Pinckert, Steven Platt, Olga Podplomyk, Manoj Pohare, Marcus Pond, Cassie F. Pope, Radoslaw Poplawski, Jessica Powell, Jennifer Poyner, Liam Prestwood, Anna Price, James R. Price, Jacqui A. Prieto, David T. Pritchard, Sophie J. Prosolek, Georgia Pugh, Monika Pusok, Oliver G. Pybus, Hannah M. Pymont, Michael A. Quail, Joshua Quick, Clara Radulescu, Jayna Raghwani, Manon Ragonnet-Cronin, Lucille Rainbow, Diana Rajan, Shavanthi Rajatileka, Newara A. Ramadan, Andrew Rambaut, John Ramble, Paul A. Randell, Paul Randell, Liz Ratcliffe, Veena Raviprakash, Mohammad Raza, Nicholas M. Redshaw, Sara Rey, Nicola Reynolds, Alex Richter, David L. Robertson, Esther Robinson, Samuel C. Robson, Fiona Rogan, Stefan Rooke, Will Rowe, Sunando Roy, Steven Rudder, Chris Ruis, Steven Rushton, Felicity Ryan, Kordo Saeed, Buddhini Samaraweera, Christine M. Sambles, Roy Sanderson, Theo Sanderson, Fei Sang, Thea Sass, Emily Scher, Garren Scott, Carol Scott, Jasveen Sehmi, Sharif Shaaban, Divya Shah, Jessica Shaw, Ekaterina Shelest, James G. Shepherd, Liz A. Sheridan, Nicola Sheriff, Lesley Shirley, John Sillitoe, Siona Silviera, David A. Simpson, Aditi Singh, Dawn Singleton, Timofey Skvortsov, Tim J. Sloan, Graciela Sluga, Ken Smith, Kim S. Smith, Perminder Smith, Darren L. Smith, Louise Smith, Colin P. Smith, Nikki Smith, Katherine L. Smollett, Luke B. Snell, Thomas Somassa, Joel Southgate, Karla Spellman, Michael H. Spencer Chapman, Lewis G. Spurgin, Moira J. Spyer, Rachael Stanley, William Stanley, Thomas D. Stanton, Igor Starinskij, Joanne Stockton, Susanne Stonehouse, Nathaniel Storey, David J. Studholme, Malur Sudhanva, Emma Swindells, Yusri Taha, Ngee Keong Tan, Julian W. Tang, Miao Tang, Ben E.W. Taylor, Joshua F. Taylor, Sarah Taylor, Ben Temperton, Kate E. Templeton, Claire Thomas, Laura Thomson, Emma C. Thomson, Alicia Thornton, Scott A.J. Thurston, John A. Todd, Rachael Tomb, Lily Tong, Gerry Tonkin-Hill, M. Estee Torok, Jaime M. Tovar-Corona, Amy Trebes, Alexander J. Trotter, Ioulia Tsatsani, Robyn Turnbull, Katherine A. Twohig, Helen Umpleby, Anthony P. Underwood, Edith E. Vamos, Tetyana I. Vasylyeva, Sreenu Vattipally, Gabrielle Vernet, Barry B. Vipond, Erik M. Volz, Sarah Walsh, Dennis Wang, Ben Warne, Joanna Warwick-Dugdale, Elizabeth Wastnedge, Joanne Watkins, Louisa K. Watson, Sheila Waugh, Hermione J. Webster, Danni Weldon, Elaine Westwick, Thomas Whalley, Helen Wheeler, Mark Whitehead, Max Whiteley, Andrew Whitwham, Claudia Wierzbicki, Nicholas J. Willford, Lesley-Anne Williams, Rebecca Williams, Cheryl Williams, Chris Williams, Charlotte A. Williams, Rachel J. Williams, Thomas Williams, Catryn Williams, Kathleen A. Williamson, Eleri Wilson-Davies, Eric Witele, Karen T. Withell, Adam A. Witney, Paige Wolverson, Nick Wong, Trudy Workman, Victoria Wright, Derek W. Wright, Tim Wyatt, Sarah Wyllie, Li Xu-McCrae, Mehmet Yavus, Geraldine Yaze, Corin A. Yeats, Gonzalo Yebra, Wen C. Yew, Gregory R. Young, Jamie Young, Alex E. Zarebski, Peijun Zhang, J. Kenneth Baillie, Malcolm G. Semple, Peter J.M. Openshaw, Gail Carson, Beatrice Alex, Petros Andrikopoulos, Benjamin Bach, Wendy S. Barclay, Debby Bogaert, Kanta Chechi, Graham S. Cooke, Annemarie B. Docherty, Gonçalo dos Santos Correia, Marc-Emmanuel Dumas, Jake Dunning, Tom Fletcher, Christopher A. Green, William Greenhalf, Julian L. Griffin, Rishi K. Gupta, Ewen M. Harrison, Julian A. Hiscox, Antonia Ying Wai Ho, Peter W. Horby, Samreen Ijaz, Saye Khoo, Paul Klenerman, Andrew Law, Matthew R. Lewis, Sonia Liggi, Wei Shen Lim, Lynn Maslen, Laura Merson, Alison M. Meynert, Mahdad Noursadeghi, Michael Olanipekun, Anthonia Osagie, Massimo Palmarini, Carlo Palmieri, William A. Paxton, Georgios Pollakis, Nicholas Price, Clark D. Russell, Vanessa Sancho-Shimizu, Caroline J. Sands, Janet T. Scott, Louise Sigfrid, Tom Solomon, Shiranee Sriskandan, David Stuart, Charlotte Summers, Olivia V. Swann, Zoltan Takats, Panteleimon Takis, Richard S. Tedder, A.A. Roger Thompson, Ryan S. Thwaites, Maria Zambon, Hayley Hardwick, Chloe Donohue, Fiona Griffiths, Wilna Oosthuyzen, Cara Donegan, Rebecca G. Spencer, Jo Dalton, Michelle Girvan, Egle Saviciute, Stephanie Roberts, Janet Harrison, Laura Marsh, Marie Connor, Sophie Halpin, Clare Jackson, Carrol Gamble, Daniel Plotkin, James Lee, Gary Leeming, Murray Wham, Sara Clohisey, Ross Hendry, James Scott-Brown, Victoria Shaw, Sarah E. McDonald, Seán Keating, Katie A. Ahmed, Jane A. Armstrong, Milton Ashworth, Innocent G. Asiimwe, Siddharth Bakshi, Samantha L. Barlow, Laura Booth, Benjamin Brennan, Katie Bullock, Benjamin W.A. Catterall, Jordan J. Clark, Emily A. Clarke, Sarah Cole, Louise Cooper, Helen Cox, Christopher Davis, Oslem Dincarslan, Chris Dunn, Philip Dyer, Angela Elliott, Anthony Evans, Lorna Finch, Lewis W.S. Fisher, Terry Foster, Isabel Garcia-Dorival, Philip Gunning, Catherine Hartley, Rebecca L. Jensen, Christopher B. Jones, Trevor R. Jones, Shadia Khandaker, Katharine King, Robyn T. Kiy, Chrysa Koukorava, Annette Lake, Suzannah Lant, Diane Latawiec, Lara Lavelle-Langham, Daniella Lefteri, Lauren Lett, Lucia A. Livoti, Maria Mancini, Sarah McDonald, Laurence McEvoy, John McLauchlan, Soeren Metelmann, Nahida S. Miah, Joanna Middleton, Joyce Mitchell, Ellen G. Murphy, Rebekah Penrice-Randal, Jack Pilgrim, Tessa Prince, Will Reynolds, P. Matthew Ridley, Debby Sales, Victoria E. Shaw, Rebecca K. Shears, Benjamin Small, Krishanthi S. Subramaniam, Agnieska Szemiel, Aislynn Taggart, Jolanta Tanianis-Hughes, Jordan Thomas, Erwan Trochu, Libby van Tonder, Eve Wilcock, J. Eunice Zhang, Lisa Flaherty, Nicole Maziere, Emily Cass, Alejandra Doce Carracedo, Nicola Carlucci, Anthony Holmes, Hannah Massey, Lee Murphy, Nicola Wrobel, Sarah McCafferty, Kirstie Morrice, Alan MacLean, Kayode Adeniji, Daniel Agranoff, Ken Agwuh, Dhiraj Ail, Erin L. Aldera, Ana Alegria, Sam Allen, Brian Angus, Abdul Ashish, Dougal Atkinson, Shahedal Bari, Gavin Barlow, Stella Barnass, Nicholas Barrett, Christopher Bassford, Sneha Basude, David Baxter, Michael Beadsworth, Jolanta Bernatoniene, John Berridge, Colin Berry, Nicola Best, Pieter Bothma, David Chadwick, Robin Brittain-Long, Naomi Bulteel, Tom Burden, Andrew Burtenshaw, Vikki Caruth, Duncan Chambler, Nigel Chee, Jenny Child, Srikanth Chukkambotla, Tom Clark, Paul Collini, Catherine Cosgrove, Jason Cupitt, Maria-Teresa Cutino-Moguel, Paul Dark, Chris Dawson, Phil Donnison, Sam Douthwaite, Andrew Drummond, Ingrid DuRand, Ahilanadan Dushianthan, Tristan Dyer, Chi Eziefula, Chrisopher Fegan, Adam Finn, Duncan Fullerton, Sanjeev Garg, Atul Garg, Effrossyni Gkrania-Klotsas, Jo Godden, Arthur Goldsmith, Elaine Hardy, Stuart Hartshorn, Daniel Harvey, Peter Havalda, Daniel B. Hawcutt, Maria Hobrok, Luke Hodgson, Anil Hormis, Michael Jacobs, Susan Jain, Paul Jennings, Agilan Kaliappan, Vidya Kasipandian, Stephen Kegg, Michael Kelsey, Jason Kendall, Caroline Kerrison, Ian Kerslake, Oliver Koch, Gouri Koduri, George Koshy, Shondipon Laha, Steven Laird, Susan Larkin, Tamas Leiner, Patrick Lillie, James Limb, Vanessa Linnett, Jeff Little, Mark Lyttle, Michael MacMahon, Emily MacNaughton, Ravish Mankregod, Huw Masson, Elijah Matovu, Katherine McCullough, Ruth McEwen, Manjula Meda, Gary Mills, Jane Minton, Kavya Mohandas, Quen Mok, James Moon, Elinoor Moore, Patrick Morgan, Craig Morris, Katherine Mortimore, Mbiye Mpenge, Rohinton Mulla, Michael Murphy, Megan Nagel, Thapas Nagarajan, Mark Nelson, Lillian Norris, Matthew K. O'Shea, Igor Otahal, Marlies Ostermann, Mark Pais, Selva Panchatsharam, Danai Papakonstantinou, Hassan Paraiso, Brij Patel, Natalie Pattison, Justin Pepperell, Mark Peters, Mandeep Phull, Stefania Pintus, Jagtur Singh Pooni, Tim Planche, Frank Post, David Price, Rachel Prout, Nikolas Rae, Henrik Reschreiter, Tim Reynolds, Neil Richardson, Mark Roberts, Devender Roberts, Alistair Rose, Guy Rousseau, Bobby Ruge, Brendan Ryan, Taranprit Saluja, Matthias L. Schmid, Aarti Shah, Prad Shanmuga, Anil Sharma, Anna Shawcross, Jeremy Sizer, Manu Shankar-Hari, Richard Smith, Catherine Snelson, Nick Spittle, Nikki Staines, Tom Stambach, Richard Stewart, Pradeep Subudhi, Tamas Szakmany, Kate Tatham, Jo Thomas, Chris Thompson, Robert Thompson, Ascanio Tridente, Darell Tupper-Carey, Mary Twagira, Nick Vallotton, Rama Vancheeswaran, Lisa Vincent-Smith, Shico Visuvanathan, Alan Vuylsteke, Sam Waddy, Rachel Wake, Andrew Walden, Ingeborg Welters, Tony Whitehouse, Paul Whittaker, Ashley Whittington, Padmasayee Papineni, Meme Wijesinghe, Martin Williams, Lawrence Wilson, Stephen Winchester, Martin Wiselka, Adam Wolverson, Daniel G. Wootton, Andrew Workman, Bryan Yates, and Peter Young

Subjects
Phylogenetics, Molecular biology, Immunology, Immune response, Virology, Science
Abstract

Summary: We identify amino acid variants within dominant SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes by interrogating global sequence data. Several variants within nucleocapsid and ORF3a epitopes have arisen independently in multiple lineages and result in loss of recognition by epitope-specific T cells assessed by IFN-γ and cytotoxic killing assays. Complete loss of T cell responsiveness was seen due to Q213K in the A∗01:01-restricted CD8+ ORF3a epitope FTSDYYQLY207-215; due to P13L, P13S, and P13T in the B∗27:05-restricted CD8+ nucleocapsid epitope QRNAPRITF9-17; and due to T362I and P365S in the A∗03:01/A∗11:01-restricted CD8+ nucleocapsid epitope KTFPPTEPK361-369. CD8+ T cell lines unable to recognize variant epitopes have diverse T cell receptor repertoires. These data demonstrate the potential for T cell evasion and highlight the need for ongoing surveillance for variants capable of escaping T cell as well as humoral immunity.

Published
2021
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17. PopART-IBM, a highly efficient stochastic individual-based simulation model of generalised HIV epidemics developed in the context of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial.

Author

Michael Pickles, Anne Cori, William J M Probert, Rafael Sauter, Robert Hinch, Sarah Fidler, Helen Ayles, Peter Bock, Deborah Donnell, Ethan Wilson, Estelle Piwowar-Manning, Sian Floyd, Richard J Hayes, Christophe Fraser, and HPTN 071 (PopART) Study Team

Subjects
Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

Mathematical models are powerful tools in HIV epidemiology, producing quantitative projections of key indicators such as HIV incidence and prevalence. In order to improve the accuracy of predictions, such models need to incorporate a number of behavioural and biological heterogeneities, especially those related to the sexual network within which HIV transmission occurs. An individual-based model, which explicitly models sexual partnerships, is thus often the most natural type of model to choose. In this paper we present PopART-IBM, a computationally efficient individual-based model capable of simulating 50 years of an HIV epidemic in a large, high-prevalence community in under a minute. We show how the model calibrates within a Bayesian inference framework to detailed age- and sex-stratified data from multiple sources on HIV prevalence, awareness of HIV status, ART status, and viral suppression for an HPTN 071 (PopART) study community in Zambia, and present future projections of HIV prevalence and incidence for this community in the absence of trial intervention.

Published
2021
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18. OpenABM-Covid19-An agent-based model for non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 including contact tracing.

Author

Robert Hinch, William J M Probert, Anel Nurtay, Michelle Kendall, Chris Wymant, Matthew Hall, Katrina Lythgoe, Ana Bulas Cruz, Lele Zhao, Andrea Stewart, Luca Ferretti, Daniel Montero, James Warren, Nicole Mather, Matthew Abueg, Neo Wu, Olivier Legat, Katie Bentley, Thomas Mead, Kelvin Van-Vuuren, Dylan Feldner-Busztin, Tommaso Ristori, Anthony Finkelstein, David G Bonsall, Lucie Abeler-Dörner, and Christophe Fraser

Subjects
Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 has spread across the world, causing high mortality and unprecedented restrictions on social and economic activity. Policymakers are assessing how best to navigate through the ongoing epidemic, with computational models being used to predict the spread of infection and assess the impact of public health measures. Here, we present OpenABM-Covid19: an agent-based simulation of the epidemic including detailed age-stratification and realistic social networks. By default the model is parameterised to UK demographics and calibrated to the UK epidemic, however, it can easily be re-parameterised for other countries. OpenABM-Covid19 can evaluate non-pharmaceutical interventions, including both manual and digital contact tracing, and vaccination programmes. It can simulate a population of 1 million people in seconds per day, allowing parameter sweeps and formal statistical model-based inference. The code is open-source and has been developed by teams both inside and outside academia, with an emphasis on formal testing, documentation, modularity and transparency. A key feature of OpenABM-Covid19 are its Python and R interfaces, which has allowed scientists and policymakers to simulate dynamic packages of interventions and help compare options to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic.

Published
2021
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19. Recurrent emergence of SARS-CoV-2 spike deletion H69/V70 and its role in the Alpha variant B.1.1.7

Author

Bo Meng, Steven A. Kemp, Guido Papa, Rawlings Datir, Isabella A.T.M. Ferreira, Sara Marelli, William T. Harvey, Spyros Lytras, Ahmed Mohamed, Giulia Gallo, Nazia Thakur, Dami A. Collier, Petra Mlcochova, Lidia M. Duncan, Alessandro M. Carabelli, Julia C. Kenyon, Andrew M. Lever, Anna De Marco, Christian Saliba, Katja Culap, Elisabetta Cameroni, Nicholas J. Matheson, Luca Piccoli, Davide Corti, Leo C. James, David L. Robertson, Dalan Bailey, Ravindra K. Gupta, Samuel C. Robson, Nicholas J. Loman, Thomas R. Connor, Tanya Golubchik, Rocio T. Martinez Nunez, Catherine Ludden, Sally Corden, Ian Johnston, David Bonsall, Colin P. Smith, Ali R. Awan, Giselda Bucca, M. Estee Torok, Kordo Saeed, Jacqui A. Prieto, David K. Jackson, William L. Hamilton, Luke B. Snell, Catherine Moore, Ewan M. Harrison, Sonia Goncalves, Derek J. Fairley, Matthew W. Loose, Joanne Watkins, Rich Livett, Samuel Moses, Roberto Amato, Sam Nicholls, Matthew Bull, Darren L. Smith, Jeff Barrett, David M. Aanensen, Martin D. Curran, Surendra Parmar, Dinesh Aggarwal, James G. Shepherd, Matthew D. Parker, Sharon Glaysher, Matthew Bashton, Anthony P. Underwood, Nicole Pacchiarini, Katie F. Loveson, Kate E. Templeton, Cordelia F. Langford, John Sillitoe, Thushan I. de Silva, Dennis Wang, Dominic Kwiatkowski, Andrew Rambaut, Justin O’Grady, Simon Cottrell, Matthew T.G. Holden, Emma C. Thomson, Husam Osman, Monique Andersson, Anoop J. Chauhan, Mohammed O. Hassan-Ibrahim, Mara Lawniczak, Alex Alderton, Meera Chand, Chrystala Constantinidou, Meera Unnikrishnan, Alistair C. Darby, Julian A. Hiscox, Steve Paterson, Inigo Martincorena, Erik M. Volz, Andrew J. Page, Oliver G. Pybus, Andrew R. Bassett, Cristina V. Ariani, Michael H. Spencer Chapman, Kathy K. Li, Rajiv N. Shah, Natasha G. Jesudason, Yusri Taha, Martin P. McHugh, Rebecca Dewar, Aminu S. Jahun, Claire McMurray, Sarojini Pandey, James P. McKenna, Andrew Nelson, Gregory R. Young, Clare M. McCann, Scott Elliott, Hannah Lowe, Ben Temperton, Sunando Roy, Anna Price, Sara Rey, Matthew Wyles, Stefan Rooke, Sharif Shaaban, Mariateresa de Cesare, Laura Letchford, Siona Silveira, Emanuela Pelosi, Eleri Wilson-Davies, Myra Hosmillo, Áine O’Toole, Andrew R. Hesketh, Richard Stark, Louis du Plessis, Chris Ruis, Helen Adams, Yann Bourgeois, Stephen L. Michell, Dimitris Gramatopoulos, Jonathan Edgeworth, Judith Breuer, John A. Todd, Christophe Fraser, David Buck, Michaela John, Gemma L. Kay, Steve Palmer, Sharon J. Peacock, David Heyburn, Danni Weldon, Esther Robinson, Alan McNally, Peter Muir, Ian B. Vipond, John Boyes, Venkat Sivaprakasam, Tranprit Salluja, Samir Dervisevic, Emma J. Meader, Naomi R. Park, Karen Oliver, Aaron R. Jeffries, Sascha Ott, Ana da Silva Filipe, David A. Simpson, Chris Williams, Jane A.H. Masoli, Bridget A. Knight, Christopher R. Jones, Cherian Koshy, Amy Ash, Anna Casey, Andrew Bosworth, Liz Ratcliffe, Li Xu-McCrae, Hannah M. Pymont, Stephanie Hutchings, Lisa Berry, Katie Jones, Fenella Halstead, Thomas Davis, Christopher Holmes, Miren Iturriza-Gomara, Anita O. Lucaci, Paul Anthony Randell, Alison Cox, Pinglawathee Madona, Kathryn Ann Harris, Julianne Rose Brown, Tabitha W. Mahungu, Dianne Irish-Tavares, Tanzina Haque, Jennifer Hart, Eric Witele, Melisa Louise Fenton, Steven Liggett, Clive Graham, Emma Swindells, Jennifer Collins, Gary Eltringham, Sharon Campbell, Patrick C. McClure, Gemma Clark, Tim J. Sloan, Carl Jones, Jessica Lynch, Ben Warne, Steven Leonard, Jillian Durham, Thomas Williams, Sam T. Haldenby, Nathaniel Storey, Nabil-Fareed Alikhan, Nadine Holmes, Christopher Moore, Matthew Carlile, Malorie Perry, Noel Craine, Ronan A. Lyons, Angela H. Beckett, Salman Goudarzi, Christopher Fearn, Kate Cook, Hannah Dent, Hannah Paul, Robert Davies, Beth Blane, Sophia T. Girgis, Mathew A. Beale, Katherine L. Bellis, Matthew J. Dorman, Eleanor Drury, Leanne Kane, Sally Kay, Samantha McGuigan, Rachel Nelson, Liam Prestwood, Shavanthi Rajatileka, Rahul Batra, Rachel J. Williams, Mark Kristiansen, Angie Green, Anita Justice, Adhyana I.K. Mahanama, Buddhini Samaraweera, Nazreen F. Hadjirin, Joshua Quick, Radoslaw Poplawski, Leanne M. Kermack, Nicola Reynolds, Grant Hall, Yasmin Chaudhry, Malte L. Pinckert, Iliana Georgana, Robin J. Moll, Alicia Thornton, Richard Myers, Joanne Stockton, Charlotte A. Williams, Wen C. Yew, Alexander J. Trotter, Amy Trebes, George MacIntyre-Cockett, Alec Birchley, Alexander Adams, Amy Plimmer, Bree Gatica-Wilcox, Caoimhe McKerr, Ember Hilvers, Hannah Jones, Hibo Asad, Jason Coombes, Johnathan M. Evans, Laia Fina, Lauren Gilbert, Lee Graham, Michelle Cronin, Sara Kumziene-Summerhayes, Sarah Taylor, Sophie Jones, Danielle C. Groves, Peijun Zhang, Marta Gallis, Stavroula F. Louka, Igor Starinskij, Chris Jackson, Marina Gourtovaia, Gerry Tonkin-Hill, Kevin Lewis, Jaime M. Tovar-Corona, Keith James, Laura Baxter, Mohammad T. Alam, Richard J. Orton, Joseph Hughes, Sreenu Vattipally, Manon Ragonnet-Cronin, Fabricia F. Nascimento, David Jorgensen, Olivia Boyd, Lily Geidelberg, Alex E. Zarebski, Jayna Raghwani, Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Joel Southgate, Benjamin B. Lindsey, Timothy M. Freeman, Jon-Paul Keatley, Joshua B. Singer, Leonardo de Oliveira Martins, Corin A. Yeats, Khalil Abudahab, Ben E.W. Taylor, Mirko Menegazzo, John Danesh, Wendy Hogsden, Sahar Eldirdiri, Anita Kenyon, Jenifer Mason, Trevor I. Robinson, Alison Holmes, James Price, John A. Hartley, Tanya Curran, Alison E. Mather, Giri Shankar, Rachel Jones, Robin Howe, Sian Morgan, Elizabeth Wastenge, Michael R. Chapman, Siddharth Mookerjee, Rachael Stanley, Wendy Smith, Timothy Peto, David Eyre, Derrick Crook, Gabrielle Vernet, Christine Kitchen, Huw Gulliver, Ian Merrick, Martyn Guest, Robert Munn, Declan T. Bradley, Tim Wyatt, Charlotte Beaver, Luke Foulser, Sophie Palmer, Carol M. Churcher, Ellena Brooks, Kim S. Smith, Katerina Galai, Georgina M. McManus, Frances Bolt, Francesc Coll, Lizzie Meadows, Stephen W. Attwood, Alisha Davies, Elen De Lacy, Fatima Downing, Sue Edwards, Garry P. Scarlett, Sarah Jeremiah, Nikki Smith, Danielle Leek, Sushmita Sridhar, Sally Forrest, Claire Cormie, Harmeet K. Gill, Joana Dias, Ellen E. Higginson, Mailis Maes, Jamie Young, Michelle Wantoch, Dorota Jamrozy, Stephanie Lo, Minal Patel, Verity Hill, Claire M. Bewshea, Sian Ellard, Cressida Auckland, Ian Harrison, Chloe Bishop, Vicki Chalker, Alex Richter, Andrew Beggs, Angus Best, Benita Percival, Jeremy Mirza, Oliver Megram, Megan Mayhew, Liam Crawford, Fiona Ashcroft, Emma Moles-Garcia, Nicola Cumley, Richard Hopes, Patawee Asamaphan, Marc O. Niebel, Rory N. Gunson, Amanda Bradley, Alasdair Maclean, Guy Mollett, Rachel Blacow, Paul Bird, Thomas Helmer, Karlie Fallon, Julian Tang, Antony D. Hale, Louissa R. Macfarlane-Smith, Katherine L. Harper, Holli Carden, Nicholas W. Machin, Kathryn A. Jackson, Shazaad S.Y. Ahmad, Ryan P. George, Lance Turtle, Elaine O’Toole, Joanne Watts, Cassie Breen, Angela Cowell, Adela Alcolea-Medina, Themoula Charalampous, Amita Patel, Lisa J. Levett, Judith Heaney, Aileen Rowan, Graham P. Taylor, Divya Shah, Laura Atkinson, Jack C.D. Lee, Adam P. Westhorpe, Riaz Jannoo, Helen L. Lowe, Angeliki Karamani, Leah Ensell, Wendy Chatterton, Monika Pusok, Ashok Dadrah, Amanda Symmonds, Graciela Sluga, Zoltan Molnar, Paul Baker, Stephen Bonner, Sarah Essex, Edward Barton, Debra Padgett, Garren Scott, Jane Greenaway, Brendan A.I. Payne, Shirelle Burton-Fanning, Sheila Waugh, Veena Raviprakash, Nicola Sheriff, Victoria Blakey, Lesley-Anne Williams, Jonathan Moore, Susanne Stonehouse, Louise Smith, Rose K. Davidson, Luke Bedford, Lindsay Coupland, Victoria Wright, Joseph G. Chappell, Theocharis Tsoleridis, Jonathan Ball, Manjinder Khakh, Vicki M. Fleming, Michelle M. Lister, Hannah C. Howson-Wells, Louise Berry, Tim Boswell, Amelia Joseph, Iona Willingham, Nichola Duckworth, Sarah Walsh, Emma Wise, Nathan Moore, Matilde Mori, Nick Cortes, Stephen Kidd, Rebecca Williams, Laura Gifford, Kelly Bicknell, Sarah Wyllie, Allyson Lloyd, Robert Impey, Cassandra S. Malone, Benjamin J. Cogger, Nick Levene, Lynn Monaghan, Alexander J. Keeley, David G. Partridge, Mohammad Raza, Cariad Evans, Kate Johnson, Emma Betteridge, Ben W. Farr, Scott Goodwin, Michael A. Quail, Carol Scott, Lesley Shirley, Scott A.J. Thurston, Diana Rajan, Iraad F. Bronner, Louise Aigrain, Nicholas M. Redshaw, Stefanie V. Lensing, Shane McCarthy, Alex Makunin, Carlos E. Balcazar, Michael D. Gallagher, Kathleen A. Williamson, Thomas D. Stanton, Michelle L. Michelsen, Joanna Warwick-Dugdale, Robin Manley, Audrey Farbos, James W. Harrison, Christine M. Sambles, David J. Studholme, Angie Lackenby, Tamyo Mbisa, Steven Platt, Shahjahan Miah, David Bibby, Carmen Manso, Jonathan Hubb, Gavin Dabrera, Mary Ramsay, Daniel Bradshaw, Ulf Schaefer, Natalie Groves, Eileen Gallagher, David Lee, David Williams, Nicholas Ellaby, Hassan Hartman, Nikos Manesis, Vineet Patel, Juan Ledesma, Katherine A. Twohig, Elias Allara, Clare Pearson, Jeffrey K.J. Cheng, Hannah E. Bridgewater, Lucy R. Frost, Grace Taylor-Joyce, Paul E. Brown, Lily Tong, Alice Broos, Daniel Mair, Jenna Nichols, Stephen N. Carmichael, Katherine L. Smollett, Kyriaki Nomikou, Elihu Aranday-Cortes, Natasha Johnson, Seema Nickbakhsh, Edith E. Vamos, Margaret Hughes, Lucille Rainbow, Richard Eccles, Charlotte Nelson, Mark Whitehead, Richard Gregory, Matthew Gemmell, Claudia Wierzbicki, Hermione J. Webster, Chloe L. Fisher, Adrian W. Signell, Gilberto Betancor, Harry D. Wilson, Gaia Nebbia, Flavia Flaviani, Alberto C. Cerda, Tammy V. Merrill, Rebekah E. Wilson, Marius Cotic, Nadua Bayzid, Thomas Thompson, Erwan Acheson, Steven Rushton, Sarah O’Brien, David J. Baker, Steven Rudder, Alp Aydin, Fei Sang, Johnny Debebe, Sarah Francois, Tetyana I. Vasylyeva, Marina Escalera Zamudio, Bernardo Gutierrez, Angela Marchbank, Joshua Maksimovic, Karla Spellman, Kathryn McCluggage, Mari Morgan, Robert Beer, Safiah Afifi, Trudy Workman, William Fuller, Catherine Bresner, Adrienn Angyal, Luke R. Green, Paul J. Parsons, Rachel M. Tucker, Rebecca Brown, Max Whiteley, James Bonfield, Christoph Puethe, Andrew Whitwham, Jennifier Liddle, Will Rowe, Igor Siveroni, Thanh Le-Viet, Amy Gaskin, Rob Johnson, Irina Abnizova, Mozam Ali, Laura Allen, Ralph Anderson, Cristina Ariani, Siobhan Austin-Guest, Sendu Bala, Jeffrey Barrett, Andrew Bassett, Kristina Battleday, James Beal, Mathew Beale, Sam Bellany, Tristram Bellerby, Katie Bellis, Duncan Berger, Matt Berriman, Paul Bevan, Simon Binley, Jason Bishop, Kirsty Blackburn, Nick Boughton, Sam Bowker, Timothy Brendler-Spaeth, Iraad Bronner, Tanya Brooklyn, Sarah Kay Buddenborg, Robert Bush, Catarina Caetano, Alex Cagan, Nicola Carter, Joanna Cartwright, Tiago Carvalho Monteiro, Liz Chapman, Tracey-Jane Chillingworth, Peter Clapham, Richard Clark, Adrian Clarke, Catriona Clarke, Daryl Cole, Elizabeth Cook, Maria Coppola, Linda Cornell, Clare Cornwell, Craig Corton, Abby Crackett, Alison Cranage, Harriet Craven, Sarah Craw, Mark Crawford, Tim Cutts, Monika Dabrowska, Matt Davies, Joseph Dawson, Callum Day, Aiden Densem, Thomas Dibling, Cat Dockree, David Dodd, Sunil Dogga, Matthew Dorman, Gordon Dougan, Martin Dougherty, Alexander Dove, Lucy Drummond, Monika Dudek, Laura Durrant, Elizabeth Easthope, Sabine Eckert, Pete Ellis, Ben Farr, Michael Fenton, Marcella Ferrero, Neil Flack, Howerd Fordham, Grace Forsythe, Matt Francis, Audrey Fraser, Adam Freeman, Anastasia Galvin, Maria Garcia-Casado, Alex Gedny, Sophia Girgis, James Glover, Oliver Gould, Andy Gray, Emma Gray, Coline Griffiths, Yong Gu, Florence Guerin, Will Hamilton, Hannah Hanks, Ewan Harrison, Alexandria Harrott, Edward Harry, Julia Harvison, Paul Heath, Anastasia Hernandez-Koutoucheva, Rhiannon Hobbs, Dave Holland, Sarah Holmes, Gary Hornett, Nicholas Hough, Liz Huckle, Lena Hughes-Hallet, Adam Hunter, Stephen Inglis, Sameena Iqbal, Adam Jackson, David Jackson, Carlos Jimenez Verdejo, Matthew Jones, Kalyan Kallepally, Keely Kay, Jon Keatley, Alan Keith, Alison King, Lucy Kitchin, Matt Kleanthous, Martina Klimekova, Petra Korlevic, Ksenia Krasheninnkova, Greg Lane, Cordelia Langford, Adam Laverack, Katharine Law, Stefanie Lensing, Amanah Lewis-Wade, Jennifer Liddle, Quan Lin, Sarah Lindsay, Sally Linsdell, Rhona Long, Jamie Lovell, Jon Lovell, James Mack, Mark Maddison, Aleksei Makunin, Irfan Mamun, Jenny Mansfield, Neil Marriott, Matt Martin, Matthew Mayho, Jo McClintock, Sandra McHugh, Liz MapcMinn, Carl Meadows, Emily Mobley, Robin Moll, Maria Morra, Leanne Morrow, Kathryn Murie, Sian Nash, Claire Nathwani, Plamena Naydenova, Alexandra Neaverson, Ed Nerou, Jon Nicholson, Tabea Nimz, Guillaume G. Noell, Sarah O’Meara, Valeriu Ohan, Charles Olney, Doug Ormond, Agnes Oszlanczi, Yoke Fei Pang, Barbora Pardubska, Naomi Park, Aaron Parmar, Gaurang Patel, Maggie Payne, Sharon Peacock, Arabella Petersen, Deborah Plowman, Tom Preston, Michael Quail, Richard Rance, Suzannah Rawlings, Nicholas Redshaw, Joe Reynolds, Mark Reynolds, Simon Rice, Matt Richardson, Connor Roberts, Katrina Robinson, Melanie Robinson, David Robinson, Hazel Rogers, Eduardo Martin Rojo, Daljit Roopra, Mark Rose, Luke Rudd, Ramin Sadri, Nicholas Salmon, David Saul, Frank Schwach, Phil Seekings, Alison Simms, Matt Sinnott, Shanthi Sivadasan, Bart Siwek, Dale Sizer, Kenneth Skeldon, Jason Skelton, Joanna Slater-Tunstill, Lisa Sloper, Nathalie Smerdon, Chris Smith, Christen Smith, James Smith, Katie Smith, Michelle Smith, Sean Smith, Tina Smith, Leighton Sneade, Carmen Diaz Soria, Catarina Sousa, Emily Souster, Andrew Sparkes, Michael Spencer-Chapman, Janet Squares, Robert Stanley, Claire Steed, Tim Stickland, Ian Still, Mike Stratton, Michelle Strickland, Allen Swann, Agnieszka Swiatkowska, Neil Sycamore, Emma Swift, Edward Symons, Suzanne Szluha, Emma Taluy, Nunu Tao, Katy Taylor, Sam Taylor, Stacey Thompson, Mark Thompson, Mark Thomson, Nicholas Thomson, Scott Thurston, Dee Toombs, Benjamin Topping, Jaime Tovar-Corona, Daniel Ungureanu, James Uphill, Jana Urbanova, Philip Jansen Van, Valerie Vancollie, Paul Voak, Danielle Walker, Matthew Walker, Matt Waller, Gary Ward, Charlie Weatherhogg, Niki Webb, Alan Wells, Eloise Wells, Luke Westwood, Theo Whipp, Thomas Whiteley, Georgia Whitton, Sara Widaa, Mia Williams, Mark Wilson, and Sean Wright

Subjects
SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, antibody escape, neutralizing antibodies, infectivity, spike mutation, Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

Summary: We report severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike ΔH69/V70 in multiple independent lineages, often occurring after acquisition of receptor binding motif replacements such as N439K and Y453F, known to increase binding affinity to the ACE2 receptor and confer antibody escape. In vitro, we show that, although ΔH69/V70 itself is not an antibody evasion mechanism, it increases infectivity associated with enhanced incorporation of cleaved spike into virions. ΔH69/V70 is able to partially rescue infectivity of spike proteins that have acquired N439K and Y453F escape mutations by increased spike incorporation. In addition, replacement of the H69 and V70 residues in the Alpha variant B.1.1.7 spike (where ΔH69/V70 occurs naturally) impairs spike incorporation and entry efficiency of the B.1.1.7 spike pseudotyped virus. Alpha variant B.1.1.7 spike mediates faster kinetics of cell-cell fusion than wild-type Wuhan-1 D614G, dependent on ΔH69/V70. Therefore, as ΔH69/V70 compensates for immune escape mutations that impair infectivity, continued surveillance for deletions with functional effects is warranted.

Published
2021
Full Text
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20. Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study

Author

Mark S Graham, PhD, Carole H Sudre, PhD, Anna May, MA, Michela Antonelli, PhD, Benjamin Murray, MSc, Thomas Varsavsky, MSc, Kerstin Kläser, MSc, Liane S Canas, PhD, Erika Molteni, PhD, Marc Modat, PhD, David A Drew, PhD, Long H Nguyen, MD, Lorenzo Polidori, MSc, Somesh Selvachandran, MSc, Christina Hu, MA, Joan Capdevila, PhD, Alexander Hammers, ProfPhD, Andrew T Chan, ProfMD, Jonathan Wolf, MA, Tim D Spector, ProfPhD, Claire J Steves, PhD, Sebastien Ourselin, ProfPhD, Cherian Koshy, Amy Ash, Emma Wise, Nathan Moore, Matilde Mori, Nick Cortes, Jessica Lynch, Stephen Kidd, Derek J Fairley, Tanya Curran, James P McKenna, Helen Adams, Christophe Fraser, Tanya Golubchik, David Bonsall, Mohammed O Hassan-Ibrahim, Cassandra S Malone, Benjamin J Cogger, Michelle Wantoch, Nicola Reynolds, Ben Warne, Joshua Maksimovic, Karla Spellman, Kathryn McCluggage, Michaela John, Robert Beer, Safiah Afifi, Sian Morgan, Angela Marchbank, Anna Price, Christine Kitchen, Huw Gulliver, Ian Merrick, Joel Southgate, Martyn Guest, Robert Munn, Trudy Workman, Thomas R Connor, William Fuller, Catherine Bresner, Luke B Snell, Amita Patel, Themoula Charalampous, Gaia Nebbia, Rahul Batra, Jonathan Edgeworth, Samuel C Robson, Angela H Beckett, David M Aanensen, Anthony P Underwood, Corin A Yeats, Khalil Abudahab, Ben EW Taylor, Mirko Menegazzo, Gemma Clark, Wendy Smith, Manjinder Khakh, Vicki M Fleming, Michelle M Lister, Hannah C Howson-Wells, Louise Berry, Tim Boswell, Amelia Joseph, Iona Willingham, Carl Jones, Christopher Holmes, Paul Bird, Thomas Helmer, Karlie Fallon, Julian Tang, Veena Raviprakash, Sharon Campbell, Nicola Sheriff, Victoria Blakey, Lesley-Anne Williams, Matthew W Loose, Nadine Holmes, Christopher Moore, Matthew Carlile, Victoria Wright, Fei Sang, Johnny Debebe, Francesc Coll, Adrian W Signell, Gilberto Betancor, Harry D Wilson, Sahar Eldirdiri, Anita Kenyon, Thomas Davis, Oliver G Pybus, Louis du Plessis, Alex E Zarebski, Jayna Raghwani, Moritz UG Kraemer, Sarah Francois, Stephen W Attwood, Tetyana I Vasylyeva, Marina Escalera Zamudio, Bernardo Gutierrez, M. Estee Torok, William L Hamilton, Ian G Goodfellow, Grant Hall, Aminu S Jahun, Yasmin Chaudhry, Myra Hosmillo, Malte L Pinckert, Iliana Georgana, Samuel Moses, Hannah Lowe, Luke Bedford, Jonathan Moore, Susanne Stonehouse, Chloe L Fisher, Ali R Awan, John BoYes, Judith Breuer, Kathryn Ann Harris, Julianne Rose Brown, Divya Shah, Laura Atkinson, Jack CD Lee, Nathaniel Storey, Flavia Flaviani, Adela Alcolea-Medina, Rebecca Williams, Gabrielle Vernet, Michael R Chapman, Lisa J Levett, Judith Heaney, Wendy Chatterton, Monika Pusok, Li Xu-McCrae, Darren L Smith, Matthew Bashton, Gregory R Young, Alison Holmes, Paul Anthony Randell, Alison Cox, Pinglawathee Madona, Frances Bolt, James Price, Siddharth Mookerjee, Manon Ragonnet-Cronin, Fabricia F. Nascimento, David Jorgensen, Igor Siveroni, Rob Johnson, Olivia Boyd, Lily Geidelberg, Erik M Volz, Aileen Rowan, Graham P Taylor, Katherine L Smollett, Nicholas J Loman, Joshua Quick, Claire McMurray, Joanne Stockton, Sam Nicholls, Will Rowe, Radoslaw Poplawski, Alan McNally, Rocio T Martinez Nunez, Jenifer Mason, Trevor I Robinson, Elaine O'Toole, Joanne Watts, Cassie Breen, Angela Cowell, Graciela Sluga, Nicholas W Machin, Shazaad S Y Ahmad, Ryan P George, Fenella Halstead, Venkat Sivaprakasam, Wendy Hogsden, Chris J Illingworth, Chris Jackson, Emma C Thomson, James G Shepherd, Patawee Asamaphan, Marc O Niebel, Kathy K Li, Rajiv N Shah, Natasha G Jesudason, Lily Tong, Alice Broos, Daniel Mair, Jenna Nichols, Stephen N Carmichael, Kyriaki Nomikou, Elihu Aranday-Cortes, Natasha Johnson, Igor Starinskij, Ana da Silva Filipe, David L Robertson, Richard J Orton, Joseph Hughes, Sreenu Vattipally, Joshua B Singer, Seema Nickbakhsh, Antony D Hale, Louissa R Macfarlane-Smith, Katherine L Harper, Holli Carden, Yusri Taha, Brendan AI Payne, Shirelle Burton-Fanning, Sheila Waugh, Jennifer Collins, Gary Eltringham, Steven Rushton, Sarah O'Brien, Amanda Bradley, Alasdair Maclean, Guy Mollett, Rachel Blacow, Kate E Templeton, Martin P McHugh, Rebecca Dewar, Elizabeth Wastenge, Samir Dervisevic, Rachael Stanley, Emma J Meader, Lindsay Coupland, Louise Smith, Clive Graham, Edward Barton, Debra Padgett, Garren Scott, Emma Swindells, Jane Greenaway, Andrew Nelson, Clare M McCann, Wen C Yew, Monique Andersson, Timothy Peto, Anita Justice, David Eyre, Derrick Crook, Tim J Sloan, Nichola Duckworth, Sarah Walsh, Anoop J Chauhan, Sharon Glaysher, Kelly Bicknell, Sarah Wyllie, Scott Elliott, Allyson Lloyd, Robert Impey, Nick Levene, Lynn Monaghan, Declan T Bradley, Tim Wyatt, Elias Allara, Clare Pearson, Husam Osman, Andrew Bosworth, Esther Robinson, Peter Muir, Ian B Vipond, Richard Hopes, Hannah M Pymont, Stephanie Hutchings, Martin D Curran, Surendra Parmar, Angie Lackenby, Tamyo Mbisa, Steven Platt, Shahjahan Miah, David Bibby, Carmen Manso, Jonathan Hubb, Meera Chand, Gavin Dabrera, Mary Ramsay, Daniel Bradshaw, Alicia Thornton, Richard Myers, Ulf Schaefer, Natalie Groves, Eileen Gallagher, David Lee, David Williams, Nicholas Ellaby, Ian Harrison, Hassan Hartman, Nikos Manesis, Vineet Patel, Chloe Bishop, Vicki Chalker, Juan Ledesma, Katherine A Twohig, Matthew T.G. Holden, Sharif Shaaban, Alec Birchley, Alexander Adams, Alisha Davies, Amy Gaskin, Amy Plimmer, Bree Gatica-Wilcox, Caoimhe McKerr, Catherine Moore, Chris Williams, David Heyburn, Elen De Lacy, Ember Hilvers, Fatima Downing, Giri Shankar, Hannah Jones, Hibo Asad, Jason Coombes, Joanne Watkins, Johnathan M Evans, Laia Fina, Laura Gifford, Lauren Gilbert, Lee Graham, Malorie Perry, Mari Morgan, Matthew Bull, Michelle Cronin, Nicole Pacchiarini, Noel Craine, Rachel Jones, Robin Howe, Sally Corden, Sara Rey, Sara Kumziene-SummerhaYes, Sarah Taylor, Simon Cottrell, Sophie Jones, Sue Edwards, Justin O'Grady, Andrew J Page, Alison E Mather, David J Baker, Steven Rudder, Alp Aydin, Gemma L Kay, Alexander J Trotter, Nabil-Fareed Alikhan, Leonardo de Oliveira Martins, Thanh Le-Viet, Lizzie Meadows, Anna Casey, Liz Ratcliffe, David A Simpson, Zoltan Molnar, Thomas Thompson, Erwan Acheson, Jane AH Masoli, Bridget A Knight, Sian Ellard, Cressida Auckland, Christopher R Jones, Tabitha W Mahungu, Dianne Irish-Tavares, Tanzina Haque, Jennifer Hart, Eric Witele, Melisa Louise Fenton, Ashok Dadrah, Amanda Symmonds, Tranprit Saluja, Yann Bourgeois, Garry P Scarlett, Katie F Loveson, Salman Goudarzi, Christopher Fearn, Kate Cook, Hannah Dent, Hannah Paul, David G Partridge, Mohammad Raza, Cariad Evans, Kate Johnson, Steven Liggett, Paul Baker, Stephen Bonner, Sarah Essex, Ronan A Lyons, Kordo Saeed, Adhyana I.K Mahanama, Buddhini Samaraweera, Siona Silveira, Emanuela Pelosi, Eleri Wilson-Davies, Rachel J Williams, Mark Kristiansen, Sunando Roy, Charlotte A Williams, Marius Cotic, Nadua Bayzid, Adam P Westhorpe, John A Hartley, Riaz Jannoo, Helen L Lowe, Angeliki Karamani, Leah Ensell, Jacqui A Prieto, Sarah Jeremiah, Dimitris Grammatopoulos, Sarojini Pandey, Lisa Berry, Katie Jones, Alex Richter, Andrew Beggs, Angus Best, Benita Percival, Jeremy Mirza, Oliver Megram, Megan Mayhew, Liam Crawford, Fiona Ashcroft, Emma Moles-Garcia, Nicola Cumley, Colin P Smith, Giselda Bucca, Andrew R Hesketh, Beth Blane, Sophia T Girgis, Danielle Leek, Sushmita Sridhar, Sally Forrest, Claire Cormie, Harmeet K Gill, Joana Dias, Ellen E Higginson, Mailis Maes, Jamie Young, Leanne M Kermack, Ravi Kumar Gupta, Catherine Ludden, Sharon J Peacock, Sophie Palmer, Carol M Churcher, Nazreen F Hadjirin, Alessandro M Carabelli, Ellena Brooks, Kim S Smith, Katerina Galai, Georgina M McManus, Chris Ruis, Rose K Davidson, Andrew Rambaut, Thomas Williams, Carlos E Balcazar, Michael D Gallagher, Áine O'Toole, Stefan Rooke, Verity Hill, Kathleen A Williamson, Thomas D Stanton, Stephen L Michell, Claire M Bewshea, Ben Temperton, Michelle L Michelsen, Joanna Warwick-Dugdale, Robin Manley, Audrey Farbos, James W Harrison, Christine M Sambles, David J Studholme, Aaron R Jeffries, Alistair C Darby, Julian A Hiscox, Steve Paterson, Miren Iturriza-Gomara, Kathryn A Jackson, Anita O Lucaci, Edith E Vamos, Margaret Hughes, Lucille Rainbow, Richard Eccles, Charlotte Nelson, Mark Whitehead, Lance Turtle, Sam T Haldenby, Richard Gregory, Matthew Gemmell, Claudia Wierzbicki, Hermione J Webster, Thushan I de Silva, Nikki Smith, Adrienn Angyal, Benjamin B Lindsey, Danielle C Groves, Luke R Green, Dennis Wang, Timothy M Freeman, Matthew D Parker, Alexander J Keeley, Paul J Parsons, Rachel M Tucker, Rebecca Brown, Matthew Wyles, Max Whiteley, Peijun Zhang, Marta Gallis, Stavroula F Louka, Chrystala Constantinidou, Meera Unnikrishnan, Sascha Ott, Jeffrey K.J. Cheng, Hannah E. Bridgewater, Lucy R. Frost, Grace Taylor-Joyce, Richard Stark, Laura Baxter, Mohammad T. Alam, Paul E Brown, Dinesh Aggarwal, Alberto C Cerda, Tammy V Merrill, Rebekah E Wilson, Patrick C McClure, Joseph G Chappell, Theocharis Tsoleridis, Jonathan Ball, David Buck, John A Todd, Angie Green, Amy Trebes, George MacIntyre-Cockett, Mariateresa de Cesare, Alex Alderton, Roberto Amato, Cristina V Ariani, Mathew A Beale, Charlotte Beaver, Katherine L Bellis, Emma Betteridge, James Bonfield, John Danesh, Matthew J Dorman, Eleanor Drury, Ben W Farr, Luke Foulser, Sonia Goncalves, Scott Goodwin, Marina Gourtovaia, Ewan M Harrison, David K Jackson, Dorota Jamrozy, Ian Johnston, Leanne Kane, Sally Kay, Jon-Paul Keatley, Dominic Kwiatkowski, Cordelia F Langford, Mara Lawniczak, Laura Letchford, Rich Livett, Stephanie Lo, Inigo Martincorena, Samantha McGuigan, Rachel Nelson, Steve Palmer, Naomi R Park, Minal Patel, Liam Prestwood, Christoph Puethe, Michael A Quail, Shavanthi Rajatileka, Carol Scott, Lesley Shirley, John Sillitoe, Michael H Spencer Chapman, Scott AJ Thurston, Gerry Tonkin-Hill, Danni Weldon, Diana Rajan, Iraad F Bronner, Louise Aigrain, Nicholas M Redshaw, Stefanie V Lensing, Robert Davies, Andrew Whitwham, Jennifier Liddle, Kevin Lewis, Jaime M Tovar-Corona, Steven Leonard, Jillian Durham, Andrew R Bassett, Shane McCarthy, Robin J Moll, Keith James, Karen Oliver, Alex Makunin, Jeff Barrett, and Rory N Gunson

Subjects
Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

Summary: Background: The SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 was first identified in December, 2020, in England. We aimed to investigate whether increases in the proportion of infections with this variant are associated with differences in symptoms or disease course, reinfection rates, or transmissibility. Methods: We did an ecological study to examine the association between the regional proportion of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reported symptoms, disease course, rates of reinfection, and transmissibility. Data on types and duration of symptoms were obtained from longitudinal reports from users of the COVID Symptom Study app who reported a positive test for COVID-19 between Sept 28 and Dec 27, 2020 (during which the prevalence of B.1.1.7 increased most notably in parts of the UK). From this dataset, we also estimated the frequency of possible reinfection, defined as the presence of two reported positive tests separated by more than 90 days with a period of reporting no symptoms for more than 7 days before the second positive test. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the B.1.1.7 variant across the UK was estimated with use of genomic data from the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium and data from Public Health England on spike-gene target failure (a non-specific indicator of the B.1.1.7 variant) in community cases in England. We used linear regression to examine the association between reported symptoms and proportion of B.1.1.7. We assessed the Spearman correlation between the proportion of B.1.1.7 cases and number of reinfections over time, and between the number of positive tests and reinfections. We estimated incidence for B.1.1.7 and previous variants, and compared the effective reproduction number, Rt, for the two incidence estimates. Findings: From Sept 28 to Dec 27, 2020, positive COVID-19 tests were reported by 36 920 COVID Symptom Study app users whose region was known and who reported as healthy on app sign-up. We found no changes in reported symptoms or disease duration associated with B.1.1.7. For the same period, possible reinfections were identified in 249 (0·7% [95% CI 0·6–0·8]) of 36 509 app users who reported a positive swab test before Oct 1, 2020, but there was no evidence that the frequency of reinfections was higher for the B.1.1.7 variant than for pre-existing variants. Reinfection occurrences were more positively correlated with the overall regional rise in cases (Spearman correlation 0·56–0·69 for South East, London, and East of England) than with the regional increase in the proportion of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant (Spearman correlation 0·38–0·56 in the same regions), suggesting B.1.1.7 does not substantially alter the risk of reinfection. We found a multiplicative increase in the Rt of B.1.1.7 by a factor of 1·35 (95% CI 1·02–1·69) relative to pre-existing variants. However, Rt fell below 1 during regional and national lockdowns, even in regions with high proportions of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant. Interpretation: The lack of change in symptoms identified in this study indicates that existing testing and surveillance infrastructure do not need to change specifically for the B.1.1.7 variant. In addition, given that there was no apparent increase in the reinfection rate, vaccines are likely to remain effective against the B.1.1.7 variant. Funding: Zoe Global, Department of Health (UK), Wellcome Trust, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK), National Institute for Health Research (UK), Medical Research Council (UK), Alzheimer's Society.

Published
2021
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21. Associations between baseline characteristics, CD4 cell count response and virological failure on first-line efavirenz + tenofovir + emtricitabine for HIV

Author

Oliver T. Stirrup, Caroline A. Sabin, Andrew N. Phillips, Ian Williams, Duncan Churchill, Anna Tostevin, Teresa Hill, David T. Dunn, David Asboe, Anton Pozniak, Patricia Cane, David Chadwick, Duncan Clark, Simon Collins, Valerie Delpech, Samuel Douthwaite, David Dunn, Esther Fearnhill, Kholoud Porter, Oliver Stirrup, Christophe Fraser, Anna Maria Geretti, Rory Gunson, Antony Hale, Stéphane Hué, Linda Lazarus, Andrew Leigh-Brown, Tamyo Mbisa, Nicola Mackie, Chloe Orkin, Eleni Nastouli, Deenan Pillay, Andrew Phillips, Caroline Sabin, Erasmus Smit, Kate Templeton, Peter Tilston, Erik Volz, Hongyi Zhang, Keith Fairbrother, Justine Dawkins, Siobhan O’Shea, Jane Mullen, Alison Cox, Richard Tandy, Tracy Fawcett, Mark Hopkins, Clare Booth, Lynne Renwick, Matthias L. Schmid, Brendan Payne, Jonathan Hubb, Simon Dustan, Stuart Kirk, Amanda Bradley-Stewart, Sophie Jose, Alicia Thornton, Susie Huntington, Adam Glabay, Shaadi Shidfar, Janet Lynch, James Hand, Carl de Souza, Nicky Perry, Stuart Tilbury, Elaney Youssef, Brian Gazzard, Mark Nelson, Tracey Mabika, Sundhiya Mandalia, Jane Anderson, Sajid Munshi, Frank Post, Ade Adefisan, Chris Taylor, Zachary Gleisner, Fowzia Ibrahim, Lucy Campbell, Kirsty Baillie, Richard Gilson, Nataliya Brima, Jonathan Ainsworth, Achim Schwenk, Sheila Miller, Chris Wood, Margaret Johnson, Mike Youle, Fiona Lampe, Colette Smith, Rob Tsintas, Clinton Chaloner, Samantha Hutchinson, John Walsh, Nicky Mackie, Alan Winston, Jonathan Weber, Farhan Ramzan, Mark Carder, Clifford Leen, Alan Wilson, Sheila Morris, Mark Gompels, Sue Allan, Adrian Palfreeman, Adam Lewszuk, Stephen Kegg, Akin Faleye, Victoria Ogunbiyi, Sue Mitchell, Phillip Hay, Christian Kemble, Fabiola Martin, Sarah Russell-Sharpe, Janet Gravely, Sris Allan, Andrew Harte, Anjum Tariq, Hazel Spencer, Ron Jones, Jillian Pritchard, Shirley Cumming, Claire Atkinson, Dushyant Mital, Veronica Edgell, Juli Allen, Andy Ustianowski, Cynthia Murphy, Ilise Gunder, Roy Trevelion, and Abdel Babiker

Subjects
antiretroviral therapy, ART, drug resistance, HIV, NNRTI, NRTI, Microbiology, QR1-502, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate associations between baseline characteristics and CD4 cell count response on first-line antiretroviral therapy and risk of virological failure (VF) with or without drug resistance. Methods: We conducted an analysis of UK Collaborative HIV Cohort data linked to the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Inclusion criteria were viral sequence showing no resistance prior to initiation of first-line efavirenz + tenofovir disoproxil fumarate + emtricitabine and virological suppression within 6 months. Outcomes of VF (≥200 copies/mL) with or without drug resistance were assessed using a competing risks approach fitted jointly with a model for CD4 cell count recovery. Hazard ratios for each VF outcome were estimated for baseline CD4 cell count and viral load and characteristics of CD4 cell count response using latent variables on a standard normal scale. Results: A total of 3640 people were included with 338 VF events; corresponding viral sequences were available in 134 with ≥1 resistance mutation in 36. VF with resistance was associated with lower baseline CD4 (0.30, 0.09–0.62), lower CD4 recovery (0.04, 0.00–0.17) and higher CD4 variability (4.40, 1.22–12.68). A different pattern of associations was observed for VF without resistance, but the strength of these results was less consistent across sensitivity analyses. Cumulative incidence of VF with resistance was estimated to be >2% at 3 years for baseline CD4 ≥350 cells/μL. Conclusion: Lower baseline CD4 cell count and suboptimal CD4 recovery are associated with VF with drug resistance. People with low CD4 cell count before ART or with suboptimal CD4 recovery on treatment should be a priority for regimens with high genetic barrier to resistance.

Published
2019
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22. Inferring HIV-1 transmission networks and sources of epidemic spread in Africa with deep-sequence phylogenetic analysis

Author

Oliver Ratmann, M. Kate Grabowski, Matthew Hall, Tanya Golubchik, Chris Wymant, Lucie Abeler-Dörner, David Bonsall, Anne Hoppe, Andrew Leigh Brown, Tulio de Oliveira, Astrid Gall, Paul Kellam, Deenan Pillay, Joseph Kagaayi, Godfrey Kigozi, Thomas C. Quinn, Maria J. Wawer, Oliver Laeyendecker, David Serwadda, Ronald H. Gray, Christophe Fraser, and PANGEA Consortium and Rakai Health Sciences Program

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Here, Ratmann et al. show how viral deep sequencing data can be used to reconstruct HIV-1 transmission networks and to infer the direction of transmission in these networks.

Published
2019
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23. Epidemiological changes on the Isle of Wight after the launch of the NHS Test and Trace programme: a preliminary analysis

Author

Michelle Kendall, PhD, Luke Milsom, MPhil, Lucie Abeler-Dörner, PhD, Chris Wymant, PhD, Luca Ferretti, PhD, Mark Briers, ProfPhD, Chris Holmes, ProfPhD, David Bonsall, PhD, Johannes Abeler, ProfPhD, and Christophe Fraser, ProfPhD

Subjects
Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7
Abstract

Summary: Background: In May 2020, the UK National Health Service (NHS) Test and Trace programme was launched in England in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The programme was first rolled out on the Isle of Wight and included version 1 of the NHS contact tracing app. The aim of the study was to make a preliminary assessment of the epidemiological impact of the Test and Trace programme using publicly available data. Methods: We used COVID-19 daily case data from Public Health England to infer incidence of new infections and estimate the reproduction number (R) for each of the 150 Upper-Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) in England and nationally, before and after the launch of the Test and Trace programme on the Isle of Wight. We used Bayesian and maximum-likelihood methods to estimate R and compared the Isle of Wight with other UTLAs using a synthetic control method. Findings: We observed significant decreases in incidence and R on the Isle of Wight immediately after the launch of the Test and Trace programme. The Isle of Wight had a marked reduction in R, from 1·3 before the Test and Trace programme to 0·5 after by one of our measures, and went from having the third highest R before the Test and Trace programme, to the twelfth lowest afterwards compared with other UTLAs. Interpretation: Our results show that the epidemic on the Isle of Wight was controlled quickly and effectively after the launch of Test and Trace. Our findings highlight the need for further research to determine the causes of the reduction in the spread of the disease, as these could be translated into local and national non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies in the period before a treatment or vaccination for COVID-19 becomes available. Funding: Li Ka Shing Foundation and UK Economic and Social Research Council.

Published
2020
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24. Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae.

Author

Taj Azarian, Pamela P Martinez, Brian J Arnold, Xueting Qiu, Lindsay R Grant, Jukka Corander, Christophe Fraser, Nicholas J Croucher, Laura L Hammitt, Raymond Reid, Mathuram Santosham, Robert C Weatherholtz, Stephen D Bentley, Katherine L O'Brien, Marc Lipsitch, and William P Hanage

Subjects
Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. Such has been the case with Streptococcus pneumoniae, an important human pathogen, and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which target only a fraction of the strains in the population. Here, we use the frequencies of accessory genes to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products. We find that the standardized predicted fitness of a strain, estimated by an NFDS-based model at the time the vaccine is introduced, enables us to predict whether the strain increases or decreases in prevalence following vaccination. Further, we are able to forecast the equilibrium post-vaccine population composition and assess the invasion capacity of emerging lineages. Overall, we provide a method for predicting the impact of an intervention on pneumococcal populations with potential application to other bacterial pathogens in which NFDS is a driving force.

Published
2020
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25. Bimodal distribution and set point HBV DNA viral loads in chronic infection: retrospective analysis of cohorts from the UK and South Africa [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Author

Louise O. Downs, Sabeehah Vawda, Phillip Armand Bester, Katrina A. Lythgoe, Tingyan Wang, Anna L. McNaughton, David A. Smith, Tongai Maponga, Oliver Freeman, Kinga A. Várnai, Jim Davies, Kerrie Woods, Christophe Fraser, Eleanor Barnes, Dominique Goedhals, and Philippa C. Matthews

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) viral load (VL) is used as a biomarker to assess risk of disease progression, and to determine eligibility for treatment. While there is a well recognised association between VL and the expression of the viral e-antigen protein, the distributions of VL at a population level are not well described. We here present cross-sectional, observational HBV VL data from two large population cohorts in the UK and in South Africa, demonstrating a consistent bimodal distribution. The right skewed distribution and low median viral loads are different from the left-skew and higher viraemia in seen in HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) cohorts in the same settings. Using longitudinal data, we present evidence for a stable ‘set-point’ VL in peripheral blood during chronic HBV infection. These results are important to underpin improved understanding of HBV biology, to inform approaches to viral sequencing, and to plan public health interventions.

Published
2020
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26. Comparison of cluster-based and source-attribution methods for estimating transmission risk using large HIV sequence databases

Author

Stéphane Le Vu, Oliver Ratmann, Valerie Delpech, Alison E. Brown, O. Noel Gill, Anna Tostevin, Christophe Fraser, and Erik M. Volz

Subjects
Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216
Abstract

Phylogenetic clustering of HIV sequences from a random sample of patients can reveal epidemiological transmission patterns, but interpretation is hampered by limited theoretical support and statistical properties of clustering analysis remain poorly understood. Alternatively, source attribution methods allow fitting of HIV transmission models and thereby quantify aspects of disease transmission.A simulation study was conducted to assess error rates of clustering methods for detecting transmission risk factors. We modeled HIV epidemics among men having sex with men and generated phylogenies comparable to those that can be obtained from HIV surveillance data in the UK. Clustering and source attribution approaches were applied to evaluate their ability to identify patient attributes as transmission risk factors.We find that commonly used methods show a misleading association between cluster size or odds of clustering and covariates that are correlated with time since infection, regardless of their influence on transmission. Clustering methods usually have higher error rates and lower sensitivity than source attribution method for identifying transmission risk factors. But neither methods provide robust estimates of transmission risk ratios. Source attribution method can alleviate drawbacks from phylogenetic clustering but formal population genetic modeling may be required to estimate quantitative transmission risk factors. Keywords: Phylogenetic analysis, Cluster analysis, Phylodynamics, HIV epidemiology, Computer simulation

Published
2018
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27. A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence

Author

Pierre Nouvellet, Anne Cori, Tini Garske, Isobel M. Blake, Ilaria Dorigatti, Wes Hinsley, Thibaut Jombart, Harriet L. Mills, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Maria D. Van Kerkhove, Christophe Fraser, Christl A. Donnelly, Neil M. Ferguson, and Steven Riley

Subjects
Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216
Abstract

Outbreaks of novel pathogens such as SARS, pandemic influenza and Ebola require substantial investments in reactive interventions, with consequent implementation plans sometimes revised on a weekly basis. Therefore, short-term forecasts of incidence are often of high priority. In light of the recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa, a forecasting exercise was convened by a network of infectious disease modellers. The challenge was to forecast unseen “future” simulated data for four different scenarios at five different time points. In a similar method to that used during the recent Ebola epidemic, we estimated current levels of transmissibility, over variable time-windows chosen in an ad hoc way. Current estimated transmissibility was then used to forecast near-future incidence. We performed well within the challenge and often produced accurate forecasts. A retrospective analysis showed that our subjective method for deciding on the window of time with which to estimate transmissibility often resulted in the optimal choice. However, when near-future trends deviated substantially from exponential patterns, the accuracy of our forecasts was reduced. This exercise highlights the urgent need for infectious disease modellers to develop more robust descriptions of processes – other than the widespread depletion of susceptible individuals – that produce non-exponential patterns of incidence. Keywords: Forecasting, Rapid response, Branching process, Renewal equation, MCMC

Published
2018
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28. Improved characterisation of MRSA transmission using within-host bacterial sequence diversity

Author

Matthew D Hall, Matthew TG Holden, Pramot Srisomang, Weera Mahavanakul, Vanaporn Wuthiekanun, Direk Limmathurotsakul, Kay Fountain, Julian Parkhill, Emma K Nickerson, Sharon J Peacock, and Christophe Fraser

Subjects
molecular epidemiology, MRSA, hospital infections, Medicine, Science, Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) transmission in the hospital setting has been a frequent subject of investigation using bacterial genomes, but previous approaches have not yet fully utilised the extra deductive power provided when multiple pathogen samples are acquired from each host. Here, we used a large dataset of MRSA sequences from multiply-sampled patients to reconstruct colonisation of individuals in a high-transmission setting in a hospital in Thailand. We reconstructed transmission trees for MRSA. We also investigated transmission between anatomical sites on the same individual, finding that this either occurs repeatedly or involves a wide transmission bottleneck. We examined the between-subject bottleneck, finding considerable variation in the amount of diversity transmitted. Finally, we compared our approach to the simpler method of identifying transmission pairs using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) counts. This suggested that the optimum threshold for identifying a pair is 39 SNPs, if sensitivities and specificities are equally weighted.

Published
2019
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29. On the evolutionary ecology of multidrug resistance in bacteria.

Author

Sonja Lehtinen, François Blanquart, Marc Lipsitch, Christophe Fraser, and with the Maela Pneumococcal Collaboration

Subjects
Immunologic diseases. Allergy, RC581-607, Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

Resistance against different antibiotics appears on the same bacterial strains more often than expected by chance, leading to high frequencies of multidrug resistance. There are multiple explanations for this observation, but these tend to be specific to subsets of antibiotics and/or bacterial species, whereas the trend is pervasive. Here, we consider the question in terms of strain ecology: explaining why resistance to different antibiotics is often seen on the same strain requires an understanding of the competition between strains with different resistance profiles. This work builds on models originally proposed to explain another aspect of strain competition: the stable coexistence of antibiotic sensitivity and resistance observed in a number of bacterial species. We first identify a partial structural similarity in these models: either strain or host population structure stratifies the pathogen population into evolutionarily independent sub-populations and introduces variation in the fitness effect of resistance between these sub-populations, thus creating niches for sensitivity and resistance. We then generalise this unified underlying model to multidrug resistance and show that models with this structure predict high levels of association between resistance to different drugs and high multidrug resistance frequencies. We test predictions from this model in six bacterial datasets and find them to be qualitatively consistent with observed trends. The higher than expected frequencies of multidrug resistance are often interpreted as evidence that these strains are out-competing strains with lower resistance multiplicity. Our work provides an alternative explanation that is compatible with long-term stability in resistance frequencies.

Published
2019
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30. Phylogenetic and Demographic Characterization of Directed HIV-1 Transmission Using Deep Sequences from High-Risk and General Population Cohorts/Groups in Uganda

Author

Nicholas Bbosa, Deogratius Ssemwanga, Alfred Ssekagiri, Xiaoyue Xi, Yunia Mayanja, Ubaldo Bahemuka, Janet Seeley, Deenan Pillay, Lucie Abeler-Dörner, Tanya Golubchik, Christophe Fraser, Pontiano Kaleebu, Oliver Ratmann, and on behalf of the MRC/UVRI & LSHTM Uganda Research Unit and The PANGEA Consortium

Subjects
human immunodeficiency virus, phylogenetic analysis, deep sequences, transmission, key populations, Microbiology, QR1-502
Abstract

Across sub-Saharan Africa, key populations with elevated HIV-1 incidence and/or prevalence have been identified, but their contribution to disease spread remains unclear. We performed viral deep-sequence phylogenetic analyses to quantify transmission dynamics between the general population (GP), fisherfolk communities (FF), and women at high risk of infection and their clients (WHR) in central and southwestern Uganda. Between August 2014 and August 2017, 6185 HIV-1 positive individuals were enrolled in 3 GP and 10 FF communities, 3 WHR enrollment sites. A total of 2531 antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve participants with plasma viral load >1000 copies/mL were deep-sequenced. One hundred and twenty-three transmission networks were reconstructed, including 105 phylogenetically highly supported source–recipient pairs. Only one pair involved a WHR and male participant, suggesting that improved population sampling is needed to assess empirically the role of WHR to the transmission dynamics. More transmissions were observed from the GP communities to FF communities than vice versa, with an estimated flow ratio of 1.56 (95% CrI 0.68–3.72), indicating that fishing communities on Lake Victoria are not a net source of transmission flow to neighboring communities further inland. Men contributed disproportionally to HIV-1 transmission flow regardless of age, suggesting that prevention efforts need to better aid men to engage with and stay in care.

Published
2020
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31. Evolution of HIV-1 within untreated individuals and at the population scale in Uganda.

Author

Jayna Raghwani, Andrew D Redd, Andrew F Longosz, Chieh-Hsi Wu, David Serwadda, Craig Martens, Joseph Kagaayi, Nelson Sewankambo, Stephen F Porcella, Mary K Grabowski, Thomas C Quinn, Michael A Eller, Leigh Anne Eller, Fred Wabwire-Mangen, Merlin L Robb, Christophe Fraser, and Katrina A Lythgoe

Subjects
Immunologic diseases. Allergy, RC581-607, Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

HIV-1 undergoes multiple rounds of error-prone replication between transmission events, resulting in diverse viral populations within and among individuals. In addition, the virus experiences different selective pressures at multiple levels: during the course of infection, at transmission, and among individuals. Disentangling how these evolutionary forces shape the evolution of the virus at the population scale is important for understanding pathogenesis, how drug- and immune-escape variants are likely to spread in populations, and the development of preventive vaccines. To address this, we deep-sequenced two regions of the HIV-1 genome (p24 and gp41) from 34 longitudinally-sampled untreated individuals from Rakai District in Uganda, infected with subtypes A, D, and inter-subtype recombinants. This dataset substantially increases the availability of HIV-1 sequence data that spans multiple years of untreated infection, in particular for different geographical regions and viral subtypes. In line with previous studies, we estimated an approximately five-fold faster rate of evolution at the within-host compared to the population scale for both synonymous and nonsynonymous substitutions, and for all subtypes. We determined the extent to which this mismatch in evolutionary rates can be explained by the evolution of the virus towards population-level consensus, or the transmission of viruses similar to those that establish infection within individuals. Our findings indicate that both processes are likely to be important.

Published
2018
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32. Differences in health-related quality of life between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people in Zambia and South Africa: a cross-sectional baseline survey of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial

Author

Dr Ranjeeta Thomas, PhD, Ronelle Burger, PhD, Abigail Harper, MSc, Sarah Kanema, BSc, Lawrence Mwenge, MSc, Nosivuyile Vanqa, MPhil, Nomtha Bell-Mandla, MPH, Prof Peter C Smith, MSc, Sian Floyd, MSc, Peter Bock, MRCPUK, Helen Ayles, PhD, Prof Nulda Beyers, PhD, Deborah Donnell, PhD, Sarah Fidler, PhD, Prof Richard Hayes, DSc, Katharina Hauck, PhD, James Hargreaves, Deborah Watson-Jones, Peter Godfrey-Faussett, Anne Cori, Mike Pickles, Nomtha Mandla, Blia Yang, Anelet James, Redwaan Vermaak, Nozizwe Makola, Graeme Hoddinott, Vikesh Naidoo, Virginia Bond, Musonda Simwinga, Alwyn Mwinga, Barry Kosloff, Mohammed Limbada, Justin Bwalya, Chepela Ngulube, Christophe Fraser, Susan Eshleman, Yaw Agyei, Vanessa Cummings, Denni Catalano, Lynda Emel, Lisa Bunts, Heather Noble, David Burns, Alain Kouda, Niru Sista, Ayana Moore, Rhonda White, Tanette Headen, Eric Miller, Kathy Hinson, Sten Vermund, Mark Barnes, Lyn Horn, Albert Mwango, Megan Baldwin, Shauna Wolf, and Erin Hughes

Subjects
Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

Background: The life expectancy of HIV-positive individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is approaching that of HIV-negative people. However, little is known about how these populations compare in terms of health-related quality of life (HRQoL). We aimed to compare HRQoL between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people in Zambia and South Africa. Methods: As part of the HPTN 071 (PopART) study, data from adults aged 18–44 years were gathered between Nov 28, 2013, and March 31, 2015, in large cross-sectional surveys of random samples of the general population in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa. HRQoL data were collected with a standardised generic measure of health across five domains. We used β-distributed multivariable models to analyse differences in HRQoL scores between HIV-negative and HIV-positive individuals who were unaware of their status; aware, but not in HIV care; in HIV care, but who had not initiated ART; on ART for less than 5 years; and on ART for 5 years or more. We included controls for sociodemographic variables, herpes simplex virus type-2 status, and recreational drug use. Findings: We obtained data for 19 750 respondents in Zambia and 18 941 respondents in South Africa. Laboratory-confirmed HIV status was available for 19 330 respondents in Zambia and 18 004 respondents in South Africa; 4128 (21%) of these 19 330 respondents in Zambia and 4012 (22%) of 18 004 respondents in South Africa had laboratory-confirmed HIV. We obtained complete HRQoL information for 19 637 respondents in Zambia and 18 429 respondents in South Africa. HRQoL scores did not differ significantly between individuals who had initiated ART more than 5 years previously and HIV-negative individuals, neither in Zambia (change in mean score −0·002, 95% CI −0·01 to 0·001; p=0·219) nor in South Africa (0·000, −0·002 to 0·003; p=0·939). However, scores did differ between HIV-positive individuals who had initiated ART less than 5 years previously and HIV-negative individuals in Zambia (−0·006, 95% CI −0·008 to −0·003; p

Published
2017
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33. Correction: Viral genetic variation accounts for a third of variability in HIV-1 set-point viral load in Europe.

Author

François Blanquart, Chris Wymant, Marion Cornelissen, Astrid Gall, Margreet Bakker, Daniela Bezemer, Matthew Hall, Mariska Hillebregt, Swee Hoe Ong, Jan Albert, Norbert Bannert, Jacques Fellay, Katrien Fransen, Annabelle J Gourlay, M Kate Grabowski, Barbara Gunsenheimer-Bartmeyer, Huldrych F Günthard, Pia Kivelä, Roger Kouyos, Oliver Laeyendecker, Kirsi Liitsola, Laurence Meyer, Kholoud Porter, Matti Ristola, Ard van Sighem, Guido Vanham, Ben Berkhout, Paul Kellam, Peter Reiss, Christophe Fraser, and BEEHIVE collaboration

Subjects
Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.2001855.].

Published
2017
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34. Viral genetic variation accounts for a third of variability in HIV-1 set-point viral load in Europe.

Author

François Blanquart, Chris Wymant, Marion Cornelissen, Astrid Gall, Margreet Bakker, Daniela Bezemer, Matthew Hall, Mariska Hillebregt, Swee Hoe Ong, Jan Albert, Norbert Bannert, Jacques Fellay, Katrien Fransen, Annabelle J Gourlay, M Kate Grabowski, Barbara Gunsenheimer-Bartmeyer, Huldrych F Günthard, Pia Kivelä, Roger Kouyos, Oliver Laeyendecker, Kirsi Liitsola, Laurence Meyer, Kholoud Porter, Matti Ristola, Ard van Sighem, Guido Vanham, Ben Berkhout, Paul Kellam, Peter Reiss, Christophe Fraser, and BEEHIVE collaboration

Subjects
Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

HIV-1 set-point viral load-the approximately stable value of viraemia in the first years of chronic infection-is a strong predictor of clinical outcome and is highly variable across infected individuals. To better understand HIV-1 pathogenesis and the evolution of the viral population, we must quantify the heritability of set-point viral load, which is the fraction of variation in this phenotype attributable to viral genetic variation. However, current estimates of heritability vary widely, from 6% to 59%. Here we used a dataset of 2,028 seroconverters infected between 1985 and 2013 from 5 European countries (Belgium, Switzerland, France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom) and estimated the heritability of set-point viral load at 31% (CI 15%-43%). Specifically, heritability was measured using models of character evolution describing how viral load evolves on the phylogeny of whole-genome viral sequences. In contrast to previous studies, (i) we measured viral loads using standardized assays on a sample collected in a strict time window of 6 to 24 months after infection, from which the viral genome was also sequenced; (ii) we compared 2 models of character evolution, the classical "Brownian motion" model and another model ("Ornstein-Uhlenbeck") that includes stabilising selection on viral load; (iii) we controlled for covariates, including age and sex, which may inflate estimates of heritability; and (iv) we developed a goodness of fit test based on the correlation of viral loads in cherries of the phylogenetic tree, showing that both models of character evolution fit the data well. An overall heritability of 31% (CI 15%-43%) is consistent with other studies based on regression of viral load in donor-recipient pairs. Thus, about a third of variation in HIV-1 virulence is attributable to viral genetic variation.

Published
2017
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35. Effect of the Latent Reservoir on the Evolution of HIV at the Within- and Between-Host Levels.

Author

Hilje M Doekes, Christophe Fraser, and Katrina A Lythgoe

Subjects
Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

The existence of long-lived reservoirs of latently infected CD4+ T cells is the major barrier to curing HIV, and has been extensively studied in this light. However, the effect of these reservoirs on the evolutionary dynamics of the virus has received little attention. Here, we present a within-host quasispecies model that incorporates a long-lived reservoir, which we then nest into an epidemiological model of HIV dynamics. For biologically plausible parameter values, we find that the presence of a latent reservoir can severely delay evolutionary dynamics within a single host, with longer delays associated with larger relative reservoir sizes and/or homeostatic proliferation of cells within the reservoir. These delays can fundamentally change the dynamics of the virus at the epidemiological scale. In particular, the delay in within-host evolutionary dynamics can be sufficient for the virus to evolve intermediate viral loads consistent with maximising transmission, as is observed, and not the very high viral loads that previous models have predicted, an effect that can be further enhanced if viruses similar to those that initiate infection are preferentially transmitted. These results depend strongly on within-host characteristics such as the relative reservoir size, with the evolution of intermediate viral loads observed only when the within-host dynamics are sufficiently delayed. In conclusion, we argue that the latent reservoir has important, and hitherto under-appreciated, roles in both within- and between-host viral evolution.

Published
2017
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36. Convergent evolution and topologically disruptive polymorphisms among multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Peru.

Author

Louis Grandjean, Robert H Gilman, Tomatada Iwamoto, Claudio U Köser, Jorge Coronel, Mirko Zimic, M Estee Török, Diepreye Ayabina, Michelle Kendall, Christophe Fraser, Simon Harris, Julian Parkhill, Sharon J Peacock, David A J Moore, and Caroline Colijn

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

BackgroundMultidrug-resistant tuberculosis poses a major threat to the success of tuberculosis control programs worldwide. Understanding how drug-resistant tuberculosis evolves can inform the development of new therapeutic and preventive strategies.MethodsHere, we use novel genome-wide analysis techniques to identify polymorphisms that are associated with drug resistance, adaptive evolution and the structure of the phylogenetic tree. A total of 471 samples from different patients collected between 2009 and 2013 in the Lima suburbs of Callao and Lima South were sequenced on the Illumina MiSeq platform with 150bp paired-end reads. After alignment to the reference H37Rv genome, variants were called using standardized methodology. Genome-wide analysis was undertaken using custom written scripts implemented in R software.ResultsHigh quality homoplastic single nucleotide polymorphisms were observed in genes known to confer drug resistance as well as genes in the Mycobacterium tuberculosis ESX secreted protein pathway, pks12, and close to toxin/anti-toxin pairs. Correlation of homoplastic variant sites identified that many were significantly correlated, suggestive of epistasis. Variation in genes coding for ESX secreted proteins also significantly disrupted phylogenetic structure. Mutations in ESX genes in key antigenic epitope positions were also found to disrupt tree topology.ConclusionVariation in these genes have a biologically plausible effect on immunogenicity and virulence. This makes functional characterization warranted to determine the effects of these polymorphisms on bacterial fitness and transmission.

Published
2017
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37. Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study.

Author

International Ebola Response Team, Junerlyn Agua-Agum, Archchun Ariyarajah, Bruce Aylward, Luke Bawo, Pepe Bilivogui, Isobel M Blake, Richard J Brennan, Amy Cawthorne, Eilish Cleary, Peter Clement, Roland Conteh, Anne Cori, Foday Dafae, Benjamin Dahl, Jean-Marie Dangou, Boubacar Diallo, Christl A Donnelly, Ilaria Dorigatti, Christopher Dye, Tim Eckmanns, Mosoka Fallah, Neil M Ferguson, Lena Fiebig, Christophe Fraser, Tini Garske, Lice Gonzalez, Esther Hamblion, Nuha Hamid, Sara Hersey, Wes Hinsley, Amara Jambei, Thibaut Jombart, David Kargbo, Sakoba Keita, Michael Kinzer, Fred Kuti George, Beatrice Godefroy, Giovanna Gutierrez, Niluka Kannangarage, Harriet L Mills, Thomas Moller, Sascha Meijers, Yasmine Mohamed, Oliver Morgan, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Emily Newton, Pierre Nouvellet, Tolbert Nyenswah, William Perea, Devin Perkins, Steven Riley, Guenael Rodier, Marc Rondy, Maria Sagrado, Camelia Savulescu, Ilana J Schafer, Dirk Schumacher, Thomas Seyler, Anita Shah, Maria D Van Kerkhove, C Samford Wesseh, and Zabulon Yoti

Subjects
Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundThe ongoing West African Ebola epidemic began in December 2013 in Guinea, probably from a single zoonotic introduction. As a result of ineffective initial control efforts, an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scale emerged. As of 4 May 2015, it had resulted in more than 19,000 probable and confirmed Ebola cases, mainly in Guinea (3,529), Liberia (5,343), and Sierra Leone (10,746). Here, we present analyses of data collected during the outbreak identifying drivers of transmission and highlighting areas where control could be improved.Methods and findingsOver 19,000 confirmed and probable Ebola cases were reported in West Africa by 4 May 2015. Individuals with confirmed or probable Ebola ("cases") were asked if they had exposure to other potential Ebola cases ("potential source contacts") in a funeral or non-funeral context prior to becoming ill. We performed retrospective analyses of a case line-list, collated from national databases of case investigation forms that have been reported to WHO. These analyses were initially performed to assist WHO's response during the epidemic, and have been updated for publication. We analysed data from 3,529 cases in Guinea, 5,343 in Liberia, and 10,746 in Sierra Leone; exposures were reported by 33% of cases. The proportion of cases reporting a funeral exposure decreased over time. We found a positive correlation (r = 0.35, p < 0.001) between this proportion in a given district for a given month and the within-district transmission intensity, quantified by the estimated reproduction number (R). We also found a negative correlation (r = -0.37, p < 0.001) between R and the district proportion of hospitalised cases admitted within ≤4 days of symptom onset. These two proportions were not correlated, suggesting that reduced funeral attendance and faster hospitalisation independently influenced local transmission intensity. We were able to identify 14% of potential source contacts as cases in the case line-list. Linking cases to the contacts who potentially infected them provided information on the transmission network. This revealed a high degree of heterogeneity in inferred transmissions, with only 20% of cases accounting for at least 73% of new infections, a phenomenon often called super-spreading. Multivariable regression models allowed us to identify predictors of being named as a potential source contact. These were similar for funeral and non-funeral contacts: severe symptoms, death, non-hospitalisation, older age, and travelling prior to symptom onset. Non-funeral exposures were strongly peaked around the death of the contact. There was evidence that hospitalisation reduced but did not eliminate onward exposures. We found that Ebola treatment units were better than other health care facilities at preventing exposure from hospitalised and deceased individuals. The principal limitation of our analysis is limited data quality, with cases not being entered into the database, cases not reporting exposures, or data being entered incorrectly (especially dates, and possible misclassifications).ConclusionsAchieving elimination of Ebola is challenging, partly because of super-spreading. Safe funeral practices and fast hospitalisation contributed to the containment of this Ebola epidemic. Continued real-time data capture, reporting, and analysis are vital to track transmission patterns, inform resource deployment, and thus hasten and maintain elimination of the virus from the human population.

Published
2016
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38. A transmission-virulence evolutionary trade-off explains attenuation of HIV-1 in Uganda

Author

François Blanquart, Mary Kate Grabowski, Joshua Herbeck, Fred Nalugoda, David Serwadda, Michael A Eller, Merlin L Robb, Ronald Gray, Godfrey Kigozi, Oliver Laeyendecker, Katrina A Lythgoe, Gertrude Nakigozi, Thomas C Quinn, Steven J Reynolds, Maria J Wawer, and Christophe Fraser

Subjects
viral evolution, transmission-virulence trade-off, adaptation, quantitative genetics, selection, Medicine, Science, Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an epidemiological-evolutionary model parameterised with this data to derive evolutionary predictions based on analysis and detailed individual-based simulations. We robustly predict stabilising selection towards a low level of virulence, and rapid attenuation of the virus. Accordingly, set-point viral load, the most common measure of virulence, has declined in the last 20 years. Our model also predicts that subtype A is slowly outcompeting subtype D, with both subtypes becoming less virulent, as observed in the data. Reduction of set-point viral loads should have resulted in a 20% reduction in incidence, and a three years extension of untreated asymptomatic infection, increasing opportunities for timely treatment of infected individuals.

Published
2016
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39. Large Variations in HIV-1 Viral Load Explained by Shifting-Mosaic Metapopulation Dynamics.

Author

Katrina A Lythgoe, François Blanquart, Lorenzo Pellis, and Christophe Fraser

Subjects
Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

The viral population of HIV-1, like many pathogens that cause systemic infection, is structured and differentiated within the body. The dynamics of cellular immune trafficking through the blood and within compartments of the body has also received wide attention. Despite these advances, mathematical models, which are widely used to interpret and predict viral and immune dynamics in infection, typically treat the infected host as a well-mixed homogeneous environment. Here, we present mathematical, analytical, and computational results that demonstrate that consideration of the spatial structure of the viral population within the host radically alters predictions of previous models. We study the dynamics of virus replication and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) within a metapopulation of spatially segregated patches, representing T cell areas connected by circulating blood and lymph. The dynamics of the system depend critically on the interaction between CTLs and infected cells at the within-patch level. We show that for a wide range of parameters, the system admits an unexpected outcome called the shifting-mosaic steady state. In this state, the whole body's viral population is stable over time, but the equilibrium results from an underlying, highly dynamic process of local infection and clearance within T-cell centers. Notably, and in contrast to previous models, this new model can explain the large differences in set-point viral load (SPVL) observed between patients and their distribution, as well as the relatively low proportion of cells infected at any one time, and alters the predicted determinants of viral load variation.

Published
2016
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40. Horizontal DNA Transfer Mechanisms of Bacteria as Weapons of Intragenomic Conflict.

Author

Nicholas J Croucher, Rafal Mostowy, Christopher Wymant, Paul Turner, Stephen D Bentley, and Christophe Fraser

Subjects
Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

Horizontal DNA transfer (HDT) is a pervasive mechanism of diversification in many microbial species, but its primary evolutionary role remains controversial. Much recent research has emphasised the adaptive benefit of acquiring novel DNA, but here we argue instead that intragenomic conflict provides a coherent framework for understanding the evolutionary origins of HDT. To test this hypothesis, we developed a mathematical model of a clonally descended bacterial population undergoing HDT through transmission of mobile genetic elements (MGEs) and genetic transformation. Including the known bias of transformation toward the acquisition of shorter alleles into the model suggested it could be an effective means of counteracting the spread of MGEs. Both constitutive and transient competence for transformation were found to provide an effective defence against parasitic MGEs; transient competence could also be effective at permitting the selective spread of MGEs conferring a benefit on their host bacterium. The coordination of transient competence with cell-cell killing, observed in multiple species, was found to result in synergistic blocking of MGE transmission through releasing genomic DNA for homologous recombination while simultaneously reducing horizontal MGE spread by lowering the local cell density. To evaluate the feasibility of the functions suggested by the modelling analysis, we analysed genomic data from longitudinal sampling of individuals carrying Streptococcus pneumoniae. This revealed the frequent within-host coexistence of clonally descended cells that differed in their MGE infection status, a necessary condition for the proposed mechanism to operate. Additionally, we found multiple examples of MGEs inhibiting transformation through integrative disruption of genes encoding the competence machinery across many species, providing evidence of an ongoing "arms race." Reduced rates of transformation have also been observed in cells infected by MGEs that reduce the concentration of extracellular DNA through secretion of DNases. Simulations predicted that either mechanism of limiting transformation would benefit individual MGEs, but also that this tactic's effectiveness was limited by competition with other MGEs coinfecting the same cell. A further observed behaviour we hypothesised to reduce elimination by transformation was MGE activation when cells become competent. Our model predicted that this response was effective at counteracting transformation independently of competing MGEs. Therefore, this framework is able to explain both common properties of MGEs, and the seemingly paradoxical bacterial behaviours of transformation and cell-cell killing within clonally related populations, as the consequences of intragenomic conflict between self-replicating chromosomes and parasitic MGEs. The antagonistic nature of the different mechanisms of HDT over short timescales means their contribution to bacterial evolution is likely to be substantially greater than previously appreciated.

Published
2016
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41. Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Point-Of-Care CD4 Testing on the HIV Epidemic in South Africa.

Author

Alastair Heffernan, Ella Barber, Ranjeeta Thomas, Christophe Fraser, Michael Pickles, and Anne Cori

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

Rapid diagnostic tools have been shown to improve linkage of patients to care. In the context of infectious diseases, assessing the impact and cost-effectiveness of such tools at the population level, accounting for both direct and indirect effects, is key to informing adoption of these tools. Point-of-care (POC) CD4 testing has been shown to be highly effective in increasing the proportion of HIV positive patients who initiate ART. We assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of introducing POC CD4 testing at the population level in South Africa in a range of care contexts, using a dynamic compartmental model of HIV transmission, calibrated to the South African HIV epidemic. We performed a meta-analysis to quantify the differences between POC and laboratory CD4 testing on the proportion linking to care following CD4 testing. Cumulative infections averted and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated over one and three years. We estimated that POC CD4 testing introduced in the current South African care context can prevent 1.7% (95% CI: 0.4% - 4.3%) of new HIV infections over 1 year. In that context, POC CD4 testing was cost-effective 99.8% of the time after 1 year with a median estimated ICER of US$4,468/DALY averted. In healthcare contexts with expanded HIV testing and improved retention in care, POC CD4 testing only became cost-effective after 3 years. The results were similar when, in addition, ART was offered irrespective of CD4 count, and CD4 testing was used for clinical assessment. Our findings suggest that even if ART is expanded to all HIV positive individuals and HIV testing efforts are increased in the near future, POC CD4 testing is a cost-effective tool, even within a short time horizon. Our study also illustrates the importance of evaluating the potential impact of such diagnostic technologies at the population level, so that indirect benefits and costs can be incorporated into estimations of cost-effectiveness.

Published
2016
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42. Dispersion of the HIV-1 Epidemic in Men Who Have Sex with Men in the Netherlands: A Combined Mathematical Model and Phylogenetic Analysis.

Author

Daniela Bezemer, Anne Cori, Oliver Ratmann, Ard van Sighem, Hillegonda S Hermanides, Bas E Dutilh, Luuk Gras, Nuno Rodrigues Faria, Rob van den Hengel, Ashley J Duits, Peter Reiss, Frank de Wolf, Christophe Fraser, and ATHENA observational cohort

Subjects
Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundThe HIV-1 subtype B epidemic amongst men who have sex with men (MSM) is resurgent in many countries despite the widespread use of effective combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). In this combined mathematical and phylogenetic study of observational data, we aimed to find out the extent to which the resurgent epidemic is the result of newly introduced strains or of growth of already circulating strains.Methods and findingsAs of November 2011, the ATHENA observational HIV cohort of all patients in care in the Netherlands since 1996 included HIV-1 subtype B polymerase sequences from 5,852 patients. Patients who were diagnosed between 1981 and 1995 were included in the cohort if they were still alive in 1996. The ten most similar sequences to each ATHENA sequence were selected from the Los Alamos HIV Sequence Database, and a phylogenetic tree was created of a total of 8,320 sequences. Large transmission clusters that included ≥10 ATHENA sequences were selected, with a local support value ≥ 0.9 and median pairwise patristic distance below the fifth percentile of distances in the whole tree. Time-varying reproduction numbers of the large MSM-majority clusters were estimated through mathematical modeling. We identified 106 large transmission clusters, including 3,061 (52%) ATHENA and 652 Los Alamos sequences. Half of the HIV sequences from MSM registered in the cohort in the Netherlands (2,128 of 4,288) were included in 91 large MSM-majority clusters. Strikingly, at least 54 (59%) of these 91 MSM-majority clusters were already circulating before 1996, when cART was introduced, and have persisted to the present. Overall, 1,226 (35%) of the 3,460 diagnoses among MSM since 1996 were found in these 54 long-standing clusters. The reproduction numbers of all large MSM-majority clusters were around the epidemic threshold value of one over the whole study period. A tendency towards higher numbers was visible in recent years, especially in the more recently introduced clusters. The mean age of MSM at diagnosis increased by 0.45 years/year within clusters, but new clusters appeared with lower mean age. Major strengths of this study are the high proportion of HIV-positive MSM with a sequence in this study and the combined application of phylogenetic and modeling approaches. Main limitations are the assumption that the sampled population is representative of the overall HIV-positive population and the assumption that the diagnosis interval distribution is similar between clusters.ConclusionsThe resurgent HIV epidemic amongst MSM in the Netherlands is driven by several large, persistent, self-sustaining, and, in many cases, growing sub-epidemics shifting towards new generations of MSM. Many of the sub-epidemics have been present since the early epidemic, to which new sub-epidemics are being added.

Published
2015
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43. A Strong Case for Viral Genetic Factors in HIV Virulence

Author

Joshua T. Herbeck, Viktor Müller, and Christophe Fraser

Subjects
HIV virulence, heritability, viral factors, Microbiology, QR1-502
Abstract

HIV infections show great variation in the rate of progression to disease, and the role of viral genetic factors in this variation had remained poorly characterized until recently. Now a series of four studies [1–4] published within a year has filled this important gap and has demonstrated a robust effect of the viral genotype on HIV virulence.

Published
2011
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44. HIV treatment-as-prevention research: taking the right road at the crossroads.

Author

Richard Hayes, Sarah Fidler, Anne Cori, Christophe Fraser, Sian Floyd, Helen Ayles, Nulda Beyers, Wafaa El-Sadr, and HPTN 071 (PopART) Study Team

Subjects
Medicine
Abstract

Reflecting on a Policy Forum article by Till Bärnighausen and colleagues, the HPTN 071 (PopART) Study Team consider ethical and study power concerns and the importance of the trial's future findings.

Published
2015
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45. High heritability is compatible with the broad distribution of set point viral load in HIV carriers.

Author

Sebastian Bonhoeffer, Christophe Fraser, and Gabriel E Leventhal

Subjects
Immunologic diseases. Allergy, RC581-607, Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

Set point viral load in HIV patients ranges over several orders of magnitude and is a key determinant of disease progression in HIV. A number of recent studies have reported high heritability of set point viral load implying that viral genetic factors contribute substantially to the overall variation in viral load. The high heritability is surprising given the diversity of host factors associated with controlling viral infection. Here we develop an analytical model that describes the temporal changes of the distribution of set point viral load as a function of heritability. This model shows that high heritability is the most parsimonious explanation for the observed variance of set point viral load. Our results thus not only reinforce the credibility of previous estimates of heritability but also shed new light onto mechanisms of viral pathogenesis.

Published
2015
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46. Potential Biases in Estimating Absolute and Relative Case-Fatality Risks during Outbreaks.

Author

Marc Lipsitch, Christl A Donnelly, Christophe Fraser, Isobel M Blake, Anne Cori, Ilaria Dorigatti, Neil M Ferguson, Tini Garske, Harriet L Mills, Steven Riley, Maria D Van Kerkhove, and Miguel A Hernán

Subjects
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, RC955-962, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

Estimating the case-fatality risk (CFR)-the probability that a person dies from an infection given that they are a case-is a high priority in epidemiologic investigation of newly emerging infectious diseases and sometimes in new outbreaks of known infectious diseases. The data available to estimate the overall CFR are often gathered for other purposes (e.g., surveillance) in challenging circumstances. We describe two forms of bias that may affect the estimation of the overall CFR-preferential ascertainment of severe cases and bias from reporting delays-and review solutions that have been proposed and implemented in past epidemics. Also of interest is the estimation of the causal impact of specific interventions (e.g., hospitalization, or hospitalization at a particular hospital) on survival, which can be estimated as a relative CFR for two or more groups. When observational data are used for this purpose, three more sources of bias may arise: confounding, survivorship bias, and selection due to preferential inclusion in surveillance datasets of those who are hospitalized and/or die. We illustrate these biases and caution against causal interpretation of differential CFR among those receiving different interventions in observational datasets. Again, we discuss ways to reduce these biases, particularly by estimating outcomes in smaller but more systematically defined cohorts ascertained before the onset of symptoms, such as those identified by forward contact tracing. Finally, we discuss the circumstances in which these biases may affect non-causal interpretation of risk factors for death among cases.

Published
2015
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47. SARS-CoV Antibody Prevalence in All Hong Kong Patient Contacts

Author

Gabriel M. Leung, Pui-Hong Chung, Thomas Tsang, Wilina Lim, Steve K.K. Chan, Patsy Chau, Christl A. Donnelly, Azra C. Ghani, Christophe Fraser, Steven Riley, Neil M. Ferguson, Roy M. Anderson, Yuk-lung Law, Tina Mok, Tonny Ng, Alex Fu, Pak-Yin Leung, J.S. Malik Peiris, Tai-Hing Lam, and Anthony J. Hedley

Subjects
Seroprevalence, SARS, Hong Kong, SARS-CoV, dispatch, Medicine, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216
Abstract

A total of 1,068 asymptomatic close contacts of patients with severe acute respiratory (SARS) from the 2003 epidemic in Hong Kong were serologically tested, and 2 (0.19%) were positive for SARS coronavirus immunoglobulin G antibody. SARS rarely manifests as a subclinical infection, and at present, wild animal species are the only important natural reservoirs of the virus.

Published
2004
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48. Heterogeneity in the frequency and characteristics of homologous recombination in pneumococcal evolution.

Author

Rafal Mostowy, Nicholas J Croucher, William P Hanage, Simon R Harris, Stephen Bentley, and Christophe Fraser

Subjects
Genetics, QH426-470
Abstract

The bacterium Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is one of the most important human bacterial pathogens, and a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The pneumococcus is also known for undergoing extensive homologous recombination via transformation with exogenous DNA. It has been shown that recombination has a major impact on the evolution of the pathogen, including acquisition of antibiotic resistance and serotype-switching. Nevertheless, the mechanism and the rates of recombination in an epidemiological context remain poorly understood. Here, we proposed several mathematical models to describe the rate and size of recombination in the evolutionary history of two very distinct pneumococcal lineages, PMEN1 and CC180. We found that, in both lineages, the process of homologous recombination was best described by a heterogeneous model of recombination with single, short, frequent replacements, which we call micro-recombinations, and rarer, multi-fragment, saltational replacements, which we call macro-recombinations. Macro-recombination was associated with major phenotypic changes, including serotype-switching events, and thus was a major driver of the diversification of the pathogen. We critically evaluate biological and epidemiological processes that could give rise to the micro-recombination and macro-recombination processes.

Published
2014
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49. Bayesian reconstruction of disease outbreaks by combining epidemiologic and genomic data.

Author

Thibaut Jombart, Anne Cori, Xavier Didelot, Simon Cauchemez, Christophe Fraser, and Neil Ferguson

Subjects
Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

Recent years have seen progress in the development of statistically rigorous frameworks to infer outbreak transmission trees ("who infected whom") from epidemiological and genetic data. Making use of pathogen genome sequences in such analyses remains a challenge, however, with a variety of heuristic approaches having been explored to date. We introduce a statistical method exploiting both pathogen sequences and collection dates to unravel the dynamics of densely sampled outbreaks. Our approach identifies likely transmission events and infers dates of infections, unobserved cases and separate introductions of the disease. It also proves useful for inferring numbers of secondary infections and identifying heterogeneous infectivity and super-spreaders. After testing our approach using simulations, we illustrate the method with the analysis of the beginning of the 2003 Singaporean outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), providing new insights into the early stage of this epidemic. Our approach is the first tool for disease outbreak reconstruction from genetic data widely available as free software, the R package outbreaker. It is applicable to various densely sampled epidemics, and improves previous approaches by detecting unobserved and imported cases, as well as allowing multiple introductions of the pathogen. Because of its generality, we believe this method will become a tool of choice for the analysis of densely sampled disease outbreaks, and will form a rigorous framework for subsequent methodological developments.

Published
2014
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50. HPTN 071 (PopART): a cluster-randomized trial of the population impact of an HIV combination prevention intervention including universal testing and treatment: mathematical model.

Author

Anne Cori, Helen Ayles, Nulda Beyers, Ab Schaap, Sian Floyd, Kalpana Sabapathy, Jeffrey W Eaton, Katharina Hauck, Peter Smith, Sam Griffith, Ayana Moore, Deborah Donnell, Sten H Vermund, Sarah Fidler, Richard Hayes, Christophe Fraser, and HPTN 071 PopART Study Team

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

The HPTN 052 trial confirmed that antiretroviral therapy (ART) can nearly eliminate HIV transmission from successfully treated HIV-infected individuals within couples. Here, we present the mathematical modeling used to inform the design and monitoring of a new trial aiming to test whether widespread provision of ART is feasible and can substantially reduce population-level HIV incidence.The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial is a three-arm cluster-randomized trial of 21 large population clusters in Zambia and South Africa, starting in 2013. A combination prevention package including home-based voluntary testing and counseling, and ART for HIV positive individuals, will be delivered in arms A and B, with ART offered universally in arm A and according to national guidelines in arm B. Arm C will be the control arm. The primary endpoint is the cumulative three-year HIV incidence. We developed a mathematical model of heterosexual HIV transmission, informed by recent data on HIV-1 natural history. We focused on realistically modeling the intervention package. Parameters were calibrated to data previously collected in these communities and national surveillance data. We predict that, if targets are reached, HIV incidence over three years will drop by >60% in arm A and >25% in arm B, relative to arm C. The considerable uncertainty in the predicted reduction in incidence justifies the need for a trial. The main drivers of this uncertainty are possible community-level behavioral changes associated with the intervention, uptake of testing and treatment, as well as ART retention and adherence.The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial intervention could reduce HIV population-level incidence by >60% over three years. This intervention could serve as a paradigm for national or supra-national implementation. Our analysis highlights the role mathematical modeling can play in trial development and monitoring, and more widely in evaluating the impact of treatment as prevention.

Published
2014
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