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Owing to the complicated spatial-temporal characteristics of East Asian precipitation (EAP), climate models have limited skills in simulating the modern Asian climate. This consequently leads to large uncertainties in simulations of the past EAP variation and future projections. Here, we explore the performance of the newly developed Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model, version 3 (AWI-CM3) in simulating the climatological summer EAP. To test whether the model’s skill depends on its atmosphere resolution, we design two AWI-CM3 simulations with different horizontal resolutions. The result shows that both simulations have acceptable performance in simulating the summer mean EAP, generally better than the majority of individual models participating in the Climate Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). However, for the monthly EAP from June to August, AWI-CM3 exhibits a decayed skill, which is due to the sub-seasonal movement of the western Pacific subtropical high bias. The higher resolution AWI-CM3 simulation shows an overall improvement relative to the one performed at a relatively lower resolution in all aspects taken into account regarding the EAP. We conclude that AWI-CM3 is a suitable tool for exploring the EAP for the observational period. Having verified the model’s skill for modern climate, we suggest employing the AWI-CM3, especially with high atmosphere resolution, also for applications in paleoclimate studies and future projections.

Understanding the dominant climate forcings in the Pliocene is crucial to assessing the usefulness of the Pliocene as an analogue for our warmer future. Here, we implement a novel yet simple linear factorisation method to assess the relative influence of CO2 forcing in seven models of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble. Outputs are termed “FCO2” and show the fraction of Pliocene climate change driven by CO2. The accuracy of the FCO2 method is first assessed through comparison to an energy balance analysis previously used to assess drivers of surface air temperature in the PlioMIP1 ensemble. After this assessment, the FCO2 method is applied to achieve an understanding of the drivers of Pliocene sea surface temperature and precipitation for the first time. CO2 is found to be the most important forcing in the ensemble for Pliocene surface air temperature (global mean FCO2=0.56), sea surface temperature (global mean FCO2=0.56), and precipitation (global mean FCO2=0.51). The range between individual models is found to be consistent between these three climate variables, and the models generally show good agreement on the sign of the most important forcing. Our results provide the most spatially complete view of the drivers of Pliocene climate to date and have implications for both data–model comparison and the use of the Pliocene as an analogue for the future. That CO2 is found to be the most important forcing reinforces the Pliocene as a good palaeoclimate analogue, but the significant effect of non-CO2 forcing at a regional scale (e.g. orography and ice sheet forcing at high latitudes) reminds us that it is not perfect, and these additional influencing factors must not be overlooked. This comparison is further complicated when considering the Pliocene as a state in quasi-equilibrium with CO2 forcing compared to the transient warming being experienced at present.

Satellite-observed sea surface temperature (SST) provides an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the ongoing global warming and has recently reached a milestone of 40 years temporal coverage. One of the major warming patterns captured by satellites is relatively strong subtropical ocean warming across all ocean basins. This pattern was widely interpreted as a manifestation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a natural climate variability. However, we find that the observed warming pattern, characterized by strong warming over the subtropical oceans and mild warming or even cooling over the subpolar oceans, is dynamically consistent with where the surface water converges and diverges. By comparing observations with paleo-reconstructions and simulated short-term and long-term SST response to CO2 forcing, we propose that the observed warming pattern is likely in a transient early warming stage constrained by background ocean circulation. In the long term, ocean warming at high latitudes is expected to exceed the temporally dominating subtropical ocean warming. The committed, but lagged, high-latitude ocean warming has potential to reshape the ocean-atmosphere circulation and threaten the stability of marine-terminating ice sheets.

The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Pliocene (from 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present), atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ~ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land-sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2) we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mid-Pliocene and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mid-Pliocene climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with preindustrial. In order to avoid undue influence from closely-related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric – the multi-cluster mean (MCM), based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and reconstructed proxy data. The clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensemble that include similar models.

During the Cenozoic Era hothouse climate transformed to a state that allowed establishment of extensive ice-sheets. The transformation towards an overall cooler climate encompassed periods of relatively steady change of global temperatures which were interrupted by short-term aberrations of relatively rapid cooling or warming. Global climate cooling culminated in the glacial-interglacial cycles that characterize the Quaternary until today. Various drivers have been found to contribute to this complex process of climate cooling - among these drawdown of carbon dioxide, reorganized ocean circulation related to ocean gateway evolution, varying amplitude and geographic location of deep water upwelling and formation processes, and internal feedbacks related to changes in environmental and land surface conditions in particular at high latitudes and on the continents. The fact that carbon dioxide as the most important current driver of climate change is not always proportionally linked to past changes in global temperatures underlines the importance of mechanisms beyond greenhouse gas drawdown that contributed to Cenozoic climate cooling. Several questions remain regarding mechanisms and drivers of climate evolution as reconstructed from Cenozoic proxy recorders: How can a low meridional temperature gradient be maintained at carbon dioxide concentrations that are in line with reconstructions and inference on relatively modest tropical tempatures? Which mechanisms contributed to extremely high deep sea temperatures that are not commonly reproduced by simulations of Cenozoic climate? Here we propose that during the Miocene and the Pliocene enhanced vertical mixing in the ocean may provide potential explanations to some of these enigmas. We employ the global general circulation model COSMOS, which contributed to PlioMIP, MioMIP, and DeepMIP, and study the impact of variations in vertical mixing in the ocean on large-scale climate patterns, meridional temperature gradient, and deep sea ocean temperatures. We find that both carbon dioxide and enhanced vertical mixing cause increased radiative feedback by reducing effective emissivity and surface albedo. For the Miocene, enhanced oceanic heat uptake due to invigorated vertical mixing causes intense warming of the deep ocean (5-10°C) and of the Arctic (>12°C). For the Pliocene we find that the impact of radiative forcing and enhanced vertical mixing is less relevant. This hints to a dependency of carbon dioxide and mixing sensitivity to background climate and ocean dynamics. While our work is focused on climate modelling we highlight that consideration of enhanced vertical mixing leads in our Miocene and Pliocene climate simulations to large-scale climate patterns that are in better agreement with specific aspects of proxy-based inference on past warm climates. To further corroborate our results we must compare our simulations with reconstructions of thermocline depth and seasonality - lower seasonality in reconstructions would be in line with higher heat capacity as facilitated by enhanced vertical mixing.

A long-standing challenge for mid-Pliocene climate simulations is large underestimation of simulated surface warming in the Nordic Seas in comparison to sea surface temperature (SST) proxy records (e.g. Dowsett et al., 2013; McClymont et al., 2020). Previous modelling studies have proposed that geographic changes in the Barents-Kara Sea are of great importance for surface temperature change in the Nordic Seas (e.g., Hill, 2015). That is, changing the Barents Sea from a marine to a subaerial setting can give rise to evident warming in the Nordic Seas. Nevertheless, this geographic change has so far not been well considered in the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (Haywood et al., 2016 a,b), potentially due to the lack of quantitative reconstruction of this paleogeographic change. Recently, Lien et al. (2022) provided such reconstruction, which enables a test of the impact of a subaerial Barents Sea on mid-Pliocene climate. Based on iCESM1.2, we accordingly conducted sensitivity experiments where we changed bathymetry in the eastern Nordic Sea and topography in the Barents-Kara Sea region in a setup of otherwise unaltered PRISM4 mid-Pliocene boundary conditions (Dowsett et al., 20016). Our results hint that a subaerial Barents-Kara Sea might contribute to a reduction of the data-model SST mismatch during the mid-Pliocene. References: Dowsett, H., Foley, K., Stoll, D., et al., 2013. Sea Surface Temperature of the Mid-Piacenzian Ocean: A Data-Model Comparison: Science Reports, vol. 3. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep02013. Dowsett, H., Dolan, A., Rowley, D., Moucha, R., Forte, A. M., Mitrovica, J. X., Pound, M., Salzmann, U., Robinson, M., Chandler, M., Foley, K., and Haywood, A., 2016. The PRISM4 (mid-Piacenzian) paleoenvironmental reconstruction, Clim. Past, 12, 1519–1538, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1519-2016. Haywood, A.M., Dowsett, H.J., Dolan, A.M., 2016a. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period. Nat. Commun. 7, 10646. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10646. Haywood, A.M., Dowsett, H.J., Dolan, A.M., Rowley, D., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., Chandler, M.A., Hunter, S.J., Lunt, D.J., Pound, M., Salzmann, U.,2016b. The Pliocene model Intercomparison project (PlioMIP) phase 2: scientific objectives and experimental design. Clim. Past 12, 663e675. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-663-2016. Hill, D.J., 2015. The non-analogue nature of Pliocene temperature gradients. Earth Planet Sci. Lett. 425, 232e241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.05.044 Lien, Ø. F., Hjelstuen, B. O.; Zhang, X.; Sejrup H. P., 2022. Late Plio-Pleistocene evolution of the Eurasian Ice Sheets inferred from sediment input along the northeastern Atlantic continental margin. Quat. Sci. Rev. 282, 107433. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107433 McClymont, E. L., Ford, H. L., Ho, S. L., Tindall, J. C., Haywood, A. M., Alonso-Garcia, M., Bailey, I., Berke, M. A., Littler, K., Patterson, M. O., Petrick, B., Peterse, F., Ravelo, A. C., Risebrobakken, B., De Schepper, S., Swann, G. E. A., Thirumalai, K., Tierney, J. E., van der Weijst, C., White, S., Abe-Ouchi, A., Baatsen, M. L. J., Brady, E. C., Chan, W.-L., Chandan, D., Feng, R., Guo, C., von der Heydt, A. S., Hunter, S., Li, X., Lohmann, G., Nisancioglu, K. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peltier, W. R., Stepanek, C., and Zhang, Z., 2020: Lessons from a high-CO2 world: an ocean view from ∼ 3 million years ago, Clim. Past, 16, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020.

The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration was approximately equal to the concentration we measure today (ca. 400 ppm). Sea surface temperature (SST) proxies indicate above-average warming over the North Atlantic in the mid-Pliocene with respect to the pre-industrial period, which may be linked to an intensified Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Earlier results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) show that the ensemble simulates a stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial. However, no consistent relationship between the stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC and either the Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) or average North Atlantic SSTs has been found. In this study, we look further into the drivers and consequences of a stronger AMOC in mid-Pliocene compared to pre-industrial simulations in PlioMIP2. We find that all model simulations with a closed Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago show reduced freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic. The resulting increase in salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic and Labrador Sea drives the stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene. To investigate the dynamics behind the ensemble's variable response of the total Atlantic OHT to the stronger AMOC, we separate the Atlantic OHT into two components associated with either the overturning circulation or the wind-driven gyre circulation. While the ensemble mean of the overturning component is increased significantly in magnitude in the mid-Pliocene, it is partly compensated by a reduction of the gyre component in the northern subtropical gyre region. This indicates that the lack of relationship between the total OHT and AMOC is due to changes in OHT by the subtropical gyre. The overturning and gyre components should therefore be considered separately to gain a more complete understanding of the OHT response to a stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC. In addition, we show that the AMOC exerts a stronger influence on North Atlantic SSTs in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial, providing a possible explanation for the improved agreement of the PlioMIP2 ensemble mean SSTs with reconstructions in the North Atlantic.

Cenozoic climate changes have been linked to tectonic activity and variations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here, we present Miocene and Pliocene sensitivity experiments performed with the climate model COSMOS. The experiments contain changes with respect to paleogeography, ocean gateway configuration, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as well as a range of vertical mixing coefficients in the ocean. For the mid‐Miocene, we show that the impact of ocean mixing on surface temperature is comparable to the effect of the possible range in reconstructed CO2 concentrations. In combination with stronger vertical mixing, relatively moderate CO2 concentrations of 450 ppmv enable global‐mean surface, deep‐water, and meridional temperature characteristics representative of mid‐Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO) reconstructions. The Miocene climate shows a reduced meridional temperature gradient and reduced seasonality. In the case of enhanced mixing, surface and deep ocean temperatures show significant warming of up to 5–10°C and an Arctic temperature anomaly of >12°C. In the Pliocene simulations, the impact of vertical mixing and CO2 is less important for the deep ocean, which we interpret as a different sensitivity dependence on the background state and mixed layer dynamics. We find a significant reduction in surface albedo and effective emissivity for either a high level of atmospheric CO2 or increased vertical mixing. Our mixing sensitivity experiments provide a warm deep ocean via ocean heat uptake. We propose that the mixing hypothesis can be tested by reconstructions of the thermocline and seasonal paleoclimate data indicating a lower seasonality relative to today., Plain Language Summary: Cenozoic climate changes have been associated with tectonic changes and altered atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here, we present Miocene and Pliocene computer simulations where we changed paleogeography, ocean gateways, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations as well as vertical mixing in the ocean. We show that the effect of ocean mixing on temperature is comparable to the respective effect of a possible range of CO2 concentrations. In combination with stronger vertical mixing, relatively moderate CO2 concentrations of 450 ppmv allow surface and deep‐water temperatures representative for reconstructions of the climate optimum of the mid‐Miocene. In the Pliocene simulations, the influence of vertical mixing and CO2 is less important than in the Miocene. We provide a possible mechanism of ocean heat absorption, albedo, and emissivity changes including a deeper oceanic mixing layer and a lower seasonality in the Miocene compared to today., Key Points: Miocene experiment with standard mixing and atmospheric CO2 of 600 ppm captures large‐scale temperature characteristics of the mid‐Miocene. With enhanced ocean mixing the temperature characteristics and meridional temperature gradient can be reproduced with a CO2 level of 450 ppm. Miocene shows a strong warming at polar latitudes and reduced seasonality, vertical mixing, and CO2 are less important for the Pliocene., Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003207, Helmholtz Association (亥姆霍兹联合会致力) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318, Helmholtz Climate Initiative RE‐KLIM

The Middle Miocene (15.99–11.65 Ma) of Europe witnessed major climatic, environmental, and vegetational change, yet we are lacking detailed reconstructions of Middle Miocene temperature and precipitation patterns over Europe. Here, we use a high-resolution (∼0.75°) isotope-enabled general circulation model (ECHAM5-wiso) with time-specific boundary conditions to investigate changes in temperature, precipitation, and δ18O in precipitation (δ18Op). Experiments were designed with variable elevation configurations of the European Alps and different atmospheric CO2 levels to examine the influence of Alpine elevation and global climate forcing on regional climate and δ18Op patterns. Modeling results are in agreement with available paleobotanical temperature data and with low-resolution Middle Miocene experiments of the Miocene Model Intercomparison Project (MioMIP1). However, simulated precipitation rates are 300–500 mm/yr lower in the Middle Miocene than for pre-industrial times for central Europe. This result is consistent with precipitation estimates from herpetological fossil assemblages, but contradicts precipitation estimates from paleobotanical data. We attribute the Middle Miocene precipitation change in Europe to shifts in large-scale pressure patterns in the North Atlantic and over Europe and associated changes in wind direction and humidity. We suggest that global climate forcing contributed to a maximum δ18Op change of ∼2‰ over high elevation (Alps) and ∼1‰ over low elevation regions. In contrast, we observe a maximum modeled δ18Op decrease of 8‰ across the Alpine orogen due to Alpine topography. However, the elevation-δ18Op lapse rate shallows in the Middle Miocene, leading to a possible underestimation of paleotopography when using present-day δ18Op—elevation relationships data for stable isotope paleoaltimetry studies.

A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple temporal and spatial scales. Here, we examine a single interglacial during the late Pliocene (KM5c, ca. 3.205±0.01 Ma) when atmospheric CO2 exceeded pre-industrial concentrations, but were similar to today and to the lowest emission scenarios for this century. As orbital forcing and continental configurations were almost identical to today, we are able to focus on equilibrium climate system response to modern and near-future CO2. Using proxy data from 32 sites, we demonstrate that global mean sea-surface temperatures were warmer than pre-industrial values, by ∼2.3 ∘C for the combined proxy data (foraminifera Mg∕Ca and alkenones), or by ∼3.2–3.4 ∘C (alkenones only). Compared to the pre-industrial period, reduced meridional gradients and enhanced warming in the North Atlantic are consistently reconstructed. There is broad agreement between data and models at the global scale, with regional differences reflecting ocean circulation and/or proxy signals. An uneven distribution of proxy data in time and space does, however, add uncertainty to our anomaly calculations. The reconstructed global mean sea-surface temperature anomaly for KM5c is warmer than all but three of the PlioMIP2 model outputs, and the reconstructed North Atlantic data tend to align with the warmest KM5c model values. Our results demonstrate that even under low-CO2 emission scenarios, surface ocean warming may be expected to exceed model projections and will be accentuated in the higher latitudes.

The mid-Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) is one of the most recent warm periods with high CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and resulting high temperatures and is often cited as an analog for near-term future climate change. Here, we apply a moisture budget analysis to investigate the response of the large-scale hydrological cycle at low latitudes within a 13-model ensemble from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The results show that increased atmospheric moisture content within the mid-Pliocene ensemble (the thermodynamic effect) results in wetter conditions over the deep tropics, i.e., the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Maritime Continent, and drier conditions over the subtropics. The thermodynamic effect is to some extent offset by a dynamic effect involving a northward shift of the Hadley circulation that dries the deep tropics and moistens the subtropics in the Northern Hemisphere (i.e., the subtropical Pacific). From the perspective of Earth’s energy budget, the enhanced southward cross-equatorial atmospheric transport (0.22 PW), induced by the hemispheric asymmetries of the atmospheric energy, favors an approximately 1° northward shift of the ITCZ. The shift of the ITCZ reorganizes atmospheric circulation, favoring a northward shift of the Hadley circulation. In addition, the Walker circulation consistently shifts westward within PlioMIP2 models, leading to wetter conditions over the northern Indian Ocean. The PlioMIP2 ensemble highlights that an imbalance of interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and hence altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest pattern of year-to-year climate variability found in the equatorial Pacific Ocean with global impacts. However, it is not fully understood how ENSO responds to different warming scenarios. In the warmer climate (~2-3K) of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~3 Ma BP), models consistently suggest a weakening of ENSO variability, with a mean reduction of 25% (±16%). We show that a near unanimous weakening of ENSO across models cannot be fully explained simply by mean state changes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Instead, robust off-equatorial mean state changes in the mid-Pliocene are not favourable for ENSO activity. A northward displacement of the Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is found to be significantly linked to the ENSO weakening across models. This is accompanied by increased south-easterly trade winds in the western Pacific and an intensified South Pacific Subtropical High, which are consistent with suppressed activity of processes that initiate ENSO. Our results provide a constraint to past and future changes to ENSO associated with the climatological ITCZ position.

Interactions between the climate and the cryosphere have the potential to induce strong non-linear transitions in the Earth's climate. These interactions influence both the atmospheric circulation, by changing the ice sheet's geometry, as well as the oceanic circulation, by modification of the water mass properties. Furthermore, the waxing and waning of large continental ice sheets influences the global albedo, altering the energy balance of the Earth System and inducing climate-ice sheet feedbacks on a global scale as evident in Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. To date, few fullycomprehensive models exist, that do not only contain a coupled atmosphere/land/ocean component, but also consider interactive cryosphere physics. Yet, on glacial-interglacial and tectonic time scales, as well as in the Anthropocene, ice sheets are not in equilibrium with the climate, and prescribed fixed ice sheet representations in the model can principally be only an approximation to reality. Only climate models, that contain interactive ice sheets, can produce simulations of the Earth's climate which include all feedbacks and processes related to atmosphere-land-ocean-ice interactions. Previous fully coupled models were limited either by low spatial resolution or an incomplete representation of ice sheet processes, such as iceberg calving, surface ablation processes, and ocean/ice-shelf interactions. Here, we present the newly developed AWI-Earth System Model (AWI-ESM), which tackles some of these problems. Our modelling toolbox is based on the AWI-climate model, including atmosphere and vegetation components suitable for paleoclimate studies, a multi-resolution global ocean component which can be refined to simulate regions of interest at high resolution, and an ice sheet component suitable for simulating both ice sheet and ice shelf dynamics and thermodynamics. We describe the currently implemented coupling between these components, present first results for the Mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial, and introduce further ideas for scientific applications for both future and past climate states with a focus on the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, we provide an outlook on the potential of such fully coupled Earth System models in improving representation of climate-ice sheet feedbacks in future paleoclimate studies with this model.

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ~3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar modern geography and ~400 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble we analyze changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP, by comparing with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase of the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region with an average increase of 2.7 mm/day, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara Desert and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in > 90 % of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara Desert is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), and though previous studies of future projections indicate a west/east drying/wetting contrast over Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase over Sahel in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing.

Thermodynamic arguments imply that global mean rainfall increases in a warmer atmosphere; however, dynamical effects may result in more significant diversity of regional precipitation change. Here we investigate rainfall changes in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3 Ma), a time when temperatures were 2–3ºC warmer than the pre-industrial era, using output from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Projects phases 1 and 2 and sensitivity climate model experiments. In the Mid-Pliocene simulations, the higher rates of warming in the northern hemisphere create an interhemispheric temperature gradient that enhances the southward cross-equatorial energy flux by up to 48%. This intensified energy flux reorganizes the atmospheric circulation leading to a northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and a weakened and poleward displaced Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Convergences Zones. These changes result in drier-than-normal Southern Hemisphere tropics and subtropics. The evaluation of the mid-Pliocene adds a constraint to possible future warmer scenarios associated with differing rates of warming between hemispheres.

We present the Alfred Wegener Institute's contribution to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) wherein we employ the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS) that include a dynamic vegetation scheme. This work builds on our contribution to Phase 1 of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP1) wherein we employed the same model without dynamic vegetation. Our input to the PlioMIP2 special issue of Climate of the Past is twofold. In an accompanying paper we compare results derived with COSMOS in the framework of PlioMIP2 and PlioMIP1. With this paper we present details of our contribution with COSMOS to PlioMIP2. We provide a description of the model and of methods employed to transfer reconstructed mid-Pliocene geography, as provided by the Pliocene Reconstruction and Synoptic Mapping Initiative Phase 4 (PRISM4), to model boundary conditions. We describe the spin-up procedure for creating the COSMOS PlioMIP2 simulation ensemble and present large-scale climate patterns of the COSMOS PlioMIP2 mid-Pliocene core simulation. Furthermore, we quantify the contribution of individual components of PRISM4 boundary conditions to characteristics of simulated mid-Pliocene climate and discuss implications for anthropogenic warming. When exposed to PRISM4 boundary conditions, COSMOS provides insight into a mid-Pliocene climate that is characterised by increased rainfall (+0.17 mm d−1) and elevated surface temperature (+3.37 ∘C) in comparison to the pre-industrial (PI). About two-thirds of the mid-Pliocene core temperature anomaly can be directly attributed to carbon dioxide that is elevated with respect to PI. The contribution of topography and ice sheets to mid-Pliocene warmth is much smaller in contrast – about one-quarter and one-eighth, respectively, and nonlinearities are negligible. The simulated mid-Pliocene climate comprises pronounced polar amplification, a reduced meridional temperature gradient, a northwards-shifted tropical rain belt, an Arctic Ocean that is nearly free of sea ice during boreal summer, and muted seasonality at Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. Simulated mid-Pliocene precipitation patterns are defined by both carbon dioxide and PRISM4 paleogeography. Our COSMOS simulations confirm long-standing characteristics of the mid-Pliocene Earth system, among these increased meridional volume transport in the Atlantic Ocean, an extended and intensified equatorial warm pool, and pronounced poleward expansion of vegetation cover. By means of a comparison of our results to a reconstruction of the sea surface temperature (SST) of the mid-Pliocene we find that COSMOS reproduces reconstructed SST best if exposed to a carbon dioxide concentration of 400 ppmv. In the Atlantic to Arctic Ocean the simulated mid-Pliocene core climate state is too cold in comparison to the SST reconstruction. The discord can be mitigated to some extent by increasing carbon dioxide that causes increased mismatch between the model and reconstruction in other regions.

The past provides evidence of abrupt climate shifts and changes in the frequency of climate and weather extremes. We explore the non‐linear response to orbital forcing and then consider climate millennial variability down to daily weather events. Orbital changes are translated into regional responses in temperature, where the precessional response is related to nonlinearities and seasonal biases in the system. We question regularities found in climate events by analyzing the distribution of inter‐event waiting times. Periodicities of about 900 and 1150 years are found in ice cores besides the prominent 1500‐years cycle. However, the variability remains indistinguishable from a random process, suggesting that centennial‐to‐millennial variability is stochastic in nature. New numerical techniques are developed allowing for a high resolution in the dynamically relevant regions like coasts, major upwelling regions, and high latitudes. Using this model, we find a strong sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation depending on where the deglacial meltwater is injected into. Meltwater into the Mississippi and near Labrador hardly affect the large‐scale ocean circulation, whereas subpolar hosing mimicking icebergs yields a quasi shutdown. The same multi‐scale approach is applied to radiocarbon simulations enabling a dynamical interpretation of marine sediment cores. Finally, abrupt climate events also have counterparts in the recent climate records, revealing a close link between climate variability, the statistics of North Atlantic weather patterns, and extreme events.

Interactions between the climate and the cryosphere have the potential to induce strong non-linear transitions in the Earth's climate. These interactions influence both the atmospheric circulation, by changing the ice sheet's geometry, as well as the oceanic circulation, by modification of the water mass properties. Furthermore, the waxing and waning of large continental ice sheets influences the global albedo, altering the energy balance of the Earth System and inducing climate-ice sheet feedbacks on a global scale as evident in Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. To date, few fully comprehensive models exist, that do not only contain a coupled atmosphere/land/ocean component, but also consider interactive cryosphere physics. Yet, on glacial-interglacial and tectonic time scales, as well as in the Anthropocene, ice sheets are not in equilibrium with the climate, and prescribed fixed ice sheet representations in the model can principally be only an approximation to reality. Only climate models, that contain interactive ice sheets, can produce simulations of the Earth's climate which include all feedbacks and processes related to atmosphere-land-ocean-ice interactions. Previous fully coupled models were limited either by low spatial resolution or an incomplete representation of ice sheet processes, such as iceberg calving, surface ablation processes, and ocean/ice-shelf interactions. Here, we present the newly developed AWI-Earth System Model (AWI-ESM), which tackles some of these problems. Our modelling toolbox is based on the AWI-climate model, including atmosphere and vegetation components suitable for paleoclimate studies, a multi-resolution global ocean component which can be refined to simulate regions of interest at high resolution, and an ice sheet component suitable for simulating both ice sheet and ice shelf dynamics and thermodynamics. We describe the currently implemented coupling between these components, present first results for the Mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial, and introduce further ideas for scientific applications for both future and past climate states with a focus on the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, we provide an outlook on the potential of such fully coupled Earth System models in improving representation of climate-ice sheet feedbacks in future paleoclimate studies with this model.

The global-mean surface air temperature change due to a doubled carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere (equilibrium climate sensitivity, ECS) is an important measure to quantify the impact of predicted anthropogenic climate change. The latest climate modeling intercomparison project (CMIP6) exhibits a higher ECS compared to the previous climate model generation (1.8 to 5.6 K for CMIP6 versus 1.5 to 4.5 K for CMIP5). The increase in ECS is likely due to decreases in extratropical low cloud coverage and albedo, caused by improvements in the numerical aerosol schemes. Our state-of-the-art Earth system model AWI-ESM, developed at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, yields an ECS of 3.59-3.62 K, which is close to the CMIP5 mean. Using a set of varying model configurations, we identify dynamic vegetation and model resolution as the primary driving factors which influence the modeled global response to an increased greenhouse gas forcing.

Interglacials during the Quaternary represent the youngest climate states in the paleoclimate record that are similar to potential warmer-than-present states during the Anthropocene. In particular, those periods with warmer reconstructed temperatures and/or higher sea levels provide insights into the mechanisms that may be at work now and in the future. To date, climate model simulations of Quaternary Interglacials have been restricted to Atmosphere-Biosphere-Ocean simulations, with static ice sheet geometries from glaciological, geological, and geophysical reconstructions. Simulations including fully interactive ice sheets have not been widely available. Here, we present the first simulations of the PMIP4 timeslices for the Holocene and the Last Interglacial (LIG) with a fully coupled multi-resolution climate/cryosphere model, the AWI-ESM. We compare the simulated snapshots for the Holocene and LIG to simulations to proxy reconstructions, and to runs without dynamic ice sheets to highlight the processes now represented by the improved model. Furthermore, we show various schemes implemented in our model system to represent the ice sheet mass balance, both from surface ablation as well as ocean interaction. We find that both the Holocene and Last Interglacial ice sheets contain a smaller volume of ice compared to present day, with relative sea level equivalent changes of -3% and -7%, respectively.

The Earth’s climate is characterized by many modes of variability. On millennial timescales, decaying Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last deglaciation affect the high latitude hydrological balance in the North Atlantic and therefore the ocean circulation after the Last Glacial Maximum. Global sea-level reconstructions indicate marked abrupt changes within several hundred years. Using a multi-scale climate model with a high resolution near the coast, we find a strong sensitivity of the ocean circulation depending on where the deglacial meltwater is injected. Meltwater injections via the Mississippi and near Labrador hardly affect the AMOC. The reduced sensitivity of the overturning circulation against freshwater perturbations following the Mississippi route provides a consistent representation of the deglacial climate evolution. A subpolar North Atlantic Ocean freshening, mimicking a transport of water by icebergs, yields, on the other hand, a quasi-shutdown. We can conclude that millennial climate variability depends on the spatio-temporal structure and their representation in models.Millennial DO-like variability is seen in a handful of model simulations, including even some pre-industrial simulations. As a mechanism, the subsurface is warmed by the downward mixing of the warmer overlying water during an AMOC weak state, until the surface became denser than at mid-depth and deep ventilation is initiated. In recent model developments, the large oscillations in the Labrador Sea mixing were reduced. However, it might be that the centennial-to-millennial oscillations are required to explain climate variability as expressed e.g. by the Little Ice age and the Medieval Warm Event during the last 1000 years. It could be that a de-tuning of the models is necessary in order to exhibit irregular oscillations on centennial-to-millennial time-scales. Although a systematical analysis of the mechanisms leading to centennial-to-millennial variability remains open, numerical experiments suggest that at least in the Labrador Sea and other sensitive areas the high resolution can play an important role in realistically simulating the variability in the mixed layer depth affecting AMOC. One can question regularities found in DO-events occurrence and statistically analyzed the distribution of inter-event waiting times. To estimate the statistical significance of detected event patterns, we construct a simple stochastic process in which events are triggered each time a threshold criterion is fulfilled. For a given time interval each event occurs therefore stochastically independent of another meaning that the probability of one abrupt warming does not affect the probability distribution of any other warming events in that interval. Additionally, novel periodicities of ∼900 and ∼1150 yrs in the NGRIP record are reported besides the prominent 1500 yrs cycle but demonstrate that although a high periodicity reflected in a high Rayleigh R can be found in the data it remains indistinguishable from a simple stationary random Poisson process. These are quite interesting findings as ∼1500 and ∼900 yrs periods are visible throughout the Holocene. The understanding of such low-frequency variability is crucial to allow a separation of anthropogenic signals from natural variability.

We present the Alfred Wegener Institute's contribution to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) where we employ the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS) that include a dynamic vegetation scheme. This work builds on our contribution to Phase 1 of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP1) where we employed the same model without dynamic vegetation. Our input to the PlioMIP2 special issue of Climate of the Past is twofold. In an accompanying manuscript we compare results derived with the COSMOS in the framework of PlioMIP2 and PlioMIP1. With the manuscript on hand we present details of our contribution with COSMOS to PlioMIP2. We provide a description of the model and of methods employed to transfer reconstructed Mid-Pliocene geography, as provided by the Pliocene Reconstruction and Synoptic Mapping Initiative, Phase 4 (PRISM4), to model boundary conditions. We describe the spin-up procedure for creating the COSMOS PlioMIP2 simulation ensemble and present large scale climate patterns of the COSMOS PlioMIP2 Mid-Pliocene core simulation. Furthermore, we quantify the contribution of individual components of PRISM4 boundary conditions to characteristics of simulated Mid-Pliocene climate and discuss implications for anthropogenic warming. When exposed to PRISM4 boundary conditions, the COSMOS provide insight into a Mid-Pliocene climate that is characterized by increased rainfall (+0.17 mm d−1) and elevated surface temperature (+3.37 °C) in comparison to the Pre-Industrial (PI). About two-thirds of the Mid-Pliocene core temperature anomaly can be directly attributed to carbon dioxide that is elevated w.r.t. PI. The contribution of topography and ice sheets to Mid-Pliocene warmth is in contrast much smaller – about one-fourth and one-eighth, respectively. The simulated Mid-Pliocene climate comprises pronounced polar amplification, a reduced meridional temperature gradient, a northward shifted tropical rain belt, an Arctic Ocean that is nearly free of sea ice during boreal summer, as well as muted seasonality in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. Simulated Mid-Pliocene precipitation patterns are defined by both carbon dioxide and PRISM4 paleogeography. The COSMOS confirm longstanding characteristics of the Mid-Pliocene Earth System, among these increased meridional volume transport in the Atlantic Ocean, an extended and intensified equatorial warm pool, as well as pronounced poleward expansion of vegetation cover. By means of a comparison of our results to a reconstruction of sea surface temperature (SST) of the Mid-Pliocene we find that the COSMOS reproduce reconstructed SST best if exposed to a carbon dioxide concentration of 400 ppmv. In the Atlantic to Arctic Ocean the simulated Mid-Pliocene core climate state is too cold in comparison to the SST reconstruction. The discord can be mitigated to some extent by increasing carbon dioxide that causes increased mismatch between model and reconstruction in other regions.

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ~ 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution and based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.4 and 4.7 °C relative to pre-industrial with a multi-model mean value of 2.8 °C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 6 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases are 1.3 °C greater over the land than over the oceans, and there is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60° N and 60° S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.4. In the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. Although there are some modelling constraints, there is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble earth system response to doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is approximately 50 % greater than ECS, consistent with results from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea-surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and indicate a range in ECS from 2.5 to 4.3 °C. This result is in general accord with the range in ECS presented by previous IPCC Assessment Reports.

A new global climate model setup using FESOM2.0 for the sea ice-ocean component and ECHAM6.3 for the atmosphere and land-surface has been developed. Replacing FESOM1.4 by FESOM2.0 promises a higher efficiency of the new climate setup compared to its predecessor. The new setup allows for long-term climate integrations using a locally eddy-resolving ocean. Here it is evaluated in terms of (1) the mean state and long-term drift under pre-industrial climate conditions, (2) the fidelity in simulating the historical warming, and (3) differences between coarse and eddy- resolving ocean configurations. The results show that the realism of the new climate setup is overall within the range of existing models. In terms of oceanic temperatures, the historical warming signal is of smaller amplitude than the model drift in case of a relatively short spin-up. However, it is argued that the strategy of ‘de-drifting’ climateruns after the short spin-up, proposed by the HighResMIP protocol, allows one to isolate the warming signal. Moreover, the eddy-permitting/resolving ocean setup shows notable improvements regarding the simulation of oceanic surface temperatures, in particular in the Southern Ocean.

Models used to project climate change agree with geological evidence of precipitation in most boreal land in a past warm climate., The last extended time period when climate may have been warmer than today was during the Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 129 to 120 thousand years ago). However, a global view of LIG precipitation is lacking. Here, seven new LIG climate models are compared to the first global database of proxies for LIG precipitation. In this way, models are assessed in their ability to capture important hydroclimatic processes during a different climate. The models can reproduce the proxy-based positive precipitation anomalies from the preindustrial period over much of the boreal continents. Over the Southern Hemisphere, proxy-model agreement is partial. In models, LIG boreal monsoons have 42% wider area than in the preindustrial and produce 55% more precipitation and 50% more extreme precipitation. Austral monsoons are weaker. The mechanisms behind these changes are consistent with stronger summer radiative forcing over boreal high latitudes and with the associated higher temperatures during the LIG.