1. Angiogenic factors combined with clinical risk factors to predict preterm pre-eclampsia in nulliparous women: a predictive test accuracy study.
- Author
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Myers, JE, Kenny, LC, McCowan, LME, Chan, EHY, Dekker, GA, Poston, L, Simpson, NAB, and North, RA
- Subjects
VASCULAR endothelial growth factors ,PREMATURE labor ,PREECLAMPSIA ,NULLIPARAS ,COHORT analysis - Abstract
Objectives To assess the performance of clinical risk factors, uterine artery Doppler and angiogenic markers to predict preterm pre-eclampsia in nulliparous women. Design Predictive test accuracy study. Setting Prospective multicentre cohort study Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints ( SCOPE). Methods Low-risk nulliparous women with a singleton pregnancy were recruited. Clinical risk factor data were obtained and plasma placental growth factor ( Pl GF), soluble endoglin and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (s Flt-1) were measured at 14-16 weeks of gestation. Prediction models were developed using multivariable stepwise logistic regression. Main outcome measure Preterm pre-eclampsia (delivered before 37
+0 weeks of gestation). Results Of the 3529 women recruited, 187 (5.3%) developed pre-eclampsia of whom 47 (1.3%) delivered preterm. Controls ( n = 188) were randomly selected from women without preterm pre-eclampsia and included women who developed other pregnancy complications. An area under a receiver operating characteristic curve ( AUC) of 0.76 (95% CI 0.67-0.84) was observed using previously reported clinical risk variables. The AUC improved following the addition of Pl GF measured at 14-16 weeks (0.84; 95% CI 0.77-0.91), but no further improvement was observed with the addition of uterine artery Doppler or the other angiogenic markers. A sensitivity of 45% (95% CI 0.31-0.59) (5% false-positive rate) and post-test probability of 11% (95% CI 9-13) were observed using clinical risk variables and Pl GF measurement. Conclusions Addition of plasma Pl GF at 14-16 weeks of gestation to clinical risk assessment improved the identification of nulliparous women at increased risk of developing preterm pre-eclampsia, but the performance is not sufficient to warrant introduction as a clinical screening test. These findings are marker dependent, not assay dependent; additional markers are needed to achieve clinical utility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2013
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