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New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple-study setting. The method is illustrated in the context of cardiovascular disease risk prediction using an individual participant data meta-analysis. We estimate the number of cardiovascular-disease-free life years gained when statin treatment is allocated based on a risk prediction model with five established risk factors instead of a model with just age, gender and region. We explore methodological issues associated with the multistudy design and show that cost-effectiveness comparisons based on the proposed methodology are robust against a range of modelling assumptions, including adjusting for competing risks. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Understanding associations of carotid atherosclerosis with stroke subtypes may contribute to more effective prevention of stroke.

Von Willebrand factor (VWF) is an essential component of hemostasis and has been implicated in thrombosis. Multimer size and the amount of circulating VWF are known to impact hemostatic function. We associated 78 VWF single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and haplotypes constructed from those SNPs with VWF antigen level in 7856 subjects of European descent. Among the nongenomic factors, age and body mass index contributed 4.8% and 1.6% of VWF variation, respectively. The SNP rs514659 (tags O blood type) contributed 15.4% of the variance. Among the VWF SNPs, we identified 18 SNPs that are associated with levels of VWF. The correlative SNPs are either intronic (89%) or silent exonic (11%). Although SNPs examined are distributed throughout the entire VWF gene without apparent cluster, all the positive SNPs are located in a 50-kb region. Exons in this region encode for VWF D2, D', and D3 domains that are known to regulate VWF multimerization and storage. Mutations in the D3 domain are also associated with von Willebrand disease. Fifteen of these 18 correlative SNPs are in 2 distinct haplotype blocks. In summary, we identified a cluster of intronic VWF SNPs that associate with plasma levels of VWF, individually or additively, in a large cohort of healthy subjects.

To examine the relationship of plasma levels of matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1 (TIMP-1) with carotid artery characteristics measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a cross-sectional investigation among Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Carotid MRI Study participants.

OBJECTIVE-Although variants in the transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2) gene are consistently associated with type 2 diabetes, large population-based studies of African Americans are lacking. Moreover, few studies have investigated the effects of TCF7L2 on type 2 diabetes in the context of metabolic risk factors of type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-We investigated the association between the TCF7L2 rs7903146 polymorphism and type 2 diabetes in 2,727 African American and 9,302 Caucasian participants without diabetes who were inducted into the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study in 1987-1989 and followed for 9 years. RESULTS-A total of 485 and 923 cases of type 2 diabetes were identified in African Americans and Caucasians, respectively. Compared with homozygous CC individuals, heterozygous CT and homozygous TT individuals had higher cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes over 9 years of follow-up: 11.3% (95% CI 10.2-12.4) vs. 21.1% (20.8-21.4) and 27.9% (19.3-36.5) in African Americans, respectively, and 9.7% (8.8-10.6) vs. 11.3% (10.2-12.4) and 13.6% (11.1-16.1), respectively, in Caucasians. Individuals with the risk allele had the highest hazards of diabetes if they were obese and had low HDL cholesterol, followed by individuals with any one and none of the traits. CONCLUSIONS-Our study provides the first significant evidence of association between the TCF7L2 rs7903146 polymorphism and type 2 diabetes risk in a large African American population and also demonstrates that the diabetes risk conveyed by the rs7903146 risk allele is substantially increased in the context of some metabolic risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Our study findings need to be replicated in other large, population-based studies.