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Using the concept of net gain of investment, we study a multidimensional economy and we prove the convergence to its set of steady states. Our approach differs from a standard dynamic programming based on convexity or super-modularity. We find that preferences are key to shape the economy in the long run.

Can a policy-independent epidemic dynamics change agents' optimal consumption-investment decisions and by so much so that an economy based on human capital and labor à la Lucas (1988) would reach a steady state and stagnate instead of thriving and reaching a Balanced Growth Path? We prove here that, under strictly decreasing returns on human capital, the economy will optimally reach a steady state in levels. Conversely, under constant returns, the economy will experience a balanced growth either from the beginning if preferences are logarithmic, or asymptotically otherwise.

This article considers optimization problems under two Rawls criteria. The first one is the classical Rawls criterion in literature and the second one as a result of the maximin criteria with multiple discount factors presented in Chambers and Echenique [8]. Though these criteria are different, they have the same optimal value and solution.

We introduce the Human Development Index (HDI) in a growth model to show that if households cared about human capital, even if infinitesimally, then human capital would increase forever protecting economies indirectly. Here, human capital will have an additional positive effect on social welfare through the quality of individual health and education. In a simple economy with a Cobb–Douglas technology and logarithmic preferences, we provide the explicit trajectories for human capital, consumption, and the HDI, which correspond to the balanced growth path (BGP). Using a two-step maximization strategy, we compute the optimal initial value of the control variable, in this case, the initial optimal labour supply. In other words, we prove the optimality of the BGP. We highlight a HDI crossing property: the propensity to consume has a positive effect on the HDI in the short run, but negative in the long run.

This article introduces an axiomatic approach of utilities streams based upon three preference relations, namely the close future order, the distant future order, and the main order. Assuming all these preferences to be bi-separable, the article derives a unanimous representation for weights over periods. The analysis of two categories of a \emph{potentially better} property allows for the establishment of \textit{MaxMin}, \textit{MaxMax}, and $\alpha-$\textit{MaxMin} representations. This is followed by the presentation of a multiple discounts rates version of $T^{*}$-temporally biased, generalizing quasi-hyperbolic discounting for the close future order. A similar analysis for the distant future is also performed, where it is proved that Banach limits can be considered as the distant future counterpart of exponential discounting in the evaluation of the close future.

In a simple discrete-time version of the Lucas (1988) model, we prove, first, that the Balanced Growth Path (BGP) is optimal and, second, that the optimal solution is unique. After briefly discussing the results obtained in some of the continuous-time versions of the Lucas model, we address the issues of existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution in discrete time. Making use of the supermodularity of the value function, we prove that the optimal solution must be monotonically increasing. This feature does indeed suit the BGP, although nothing can ensure yet its optimality. After providing the exact expression of the BGP, we do prove both its optimality and its uniqueness.

This research was supported by grants from the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR-10-EQPX-17, Centre d’accès s´sécurisé aux données, CASD, ANR-11-IDEX-0003- 02/Labex ECODEC No. ANR-11-LABEX-0047), the “Flash Asile” program (ANR-16-FASI-0001) and Université Paris-Saclay (ANR-11-IDEX-0003-02).; Using thirty years of municipal elections in France, we show that election results affect the share of immigrants across municipalities. In municipalities where a left- instead of right-wing mayor has been elected, the share of immigrants in the population grows faster by 1.5 p.p. within six years after the elections, and by 3 p.p. within twelve years. To a large extent, these effects are driven by partisan differences in public housing constructions and changes in the composition of the population within existing public housing units. They also are associated with greater incumbency advantage, in line with a model of strategic partisan behavior.

This Ph.D. thesis studies three different issues related to the topic of public debt sustainability, sovereign default, and their interplay with climate change and the risk of climate-related disasters. To address these issues, I combine theoretical modeling with econometric and simulation methods. The thesis is structured around three chapters.Chapter 1 “Sovereign Defaults and Debt Sustainability: The Debt Recovery Channel” is the product of a joint work with Michel Guillard and Hubert Kempf. We analyse the debt recovery channel linking the dynamics of public debt to partial sovereign defaults. We build a stochastic model which incorporates sovereign default and a debt recovery rule. This rule depends on a parameter that allows for partial debt recovery. We show that the maximum debt-to-GDP ratio that a country can sustain without defaulting is increasing, nonlinear, and sensitive to the debt-recovery parameter. A higher debt recovery parameter increases the fiscal space but worsens the financial position of a borrowing country after a default episode. We show the empirical relevance of this channel for estimating country-specific fiscal spaces.Chapter 2 “Sovereign Default Risk and Climate Change: Is it Hot Enough?” is based on a joint work with Adham Jaber. We estimate the effects of temperature anomalies- temperature's deviation from its long-run mean- on sovereign default risk and explore the transmission channels. We use cross-country panel data covering 76 countries over the period 1999-2017. We find that an increase of temperature leads to an increase of the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) premium. Building on an equilibrium bond pricing equation, we document the existence of a “debt limit channel” of temperature: higher temperature, relatively to the long-run mean, has a negative impact on future growth rate, which lowers the country's debt limit- the maximum debt-to-GDP ratio it can sustain without defaulting. As a result, the probability of default increases, leading to a higher CDS spread.Chapter 3 “Sovereign Defaults in a World of Climatic Disasters: The Expectations Channel” analyzes the expectations channel linking the increasing risk of climatic disasters and the prospects of sovereign defaults. I build a tractable model of sovereign default that allows for time-varying probability of climatic disasters and analyze the role of creditors' expectations on disaster risk. First, I show that the maximum debt-to-GDP ratio that a country can sustain without defaulting is decreasing and nonlinear in the probability of disasters. Second, I compare three types of expectations on disaster risk: the cases of constant, naive, and forward-looking expectations of disaster risk. I show that constant expectations of disaster risk lead to a constant maximum debt ratio. On the other hand, the case with naive expectations of disaster risk- creditors revising the disaster probability in each period while disregarding any future changes- leads to a time dependent maximum debt ratio, but it relatively underestimates default risk compared to the case with forward looking, rational expectations of disasters. Finally, I show that, in the presence of disaster risk, sovereign defaults can occur even in a very favorable environment with low real risk free rate, possibly below the growth rate of output.; Cette thèse étudie trois problématiques liées à la soutenabilité de la dette publique, le défaut souverain, et leur lien avec le changement climatique et l'occurrence des désastres naturels. Pour étudier ces questions, je combine modélisation théorique, méthodes économétriques et empiriques. La thèse est composée de trois chapitres.Le premier chapitre est le fruit d'une collaboration avec Michel Guillard et Hubert Kempf. Nous étudions la relation entre la dynamique de la dette publique d'une part, et le taux de recouvrement de dette applicable en cas de défaut de l'Etat d'autre part. Pour cela, nous développons un modèle stochastique de défaut souverain comportant une règle de recouvrement de dette en cas de défaut de l'Etat. Cette règle dépend d'un paramètre qui permet un recouvrement partiel ou total de la dette après un défaut. Nous montrons que le ratio de dette limite, c'est-à-dire le ratio de dette publique en part de PIB maximum qui peut être soutenu sans faire défaut, est une fonction décroissante et non-linéaire du taux de recouvrement. Avant le défaut, un taux recouvrement élevé se traduit par un espace fiscal plus important, mais cela dégrade la situation financière de l'Etat en cas de défaut. Nous montrons l'importance de prendre en compte ce mécanisme pour une estimation empirique plus précise de l'espace fiscal des pays.Le deuxième chapitre repose sur un travail commun avec Adham Jaber. Nous estimons l'effet des anomalies de température sur le risque de défaut souverain et explore les canaux de transmission de cet effet. Pour cela, nous utilisons des données de panel portant sur 76 pays durant la période 1999-2017. Nous montrons qu'une augmentation de la température se traduit par une augmentation de la prime de défaut, mesurée par le spread de taux des swaps de défaut (CDS). Partant d'une équation d'évaluation des titres obligataires dérivée des modèles de défaut souverain, nous montrons l'existence d'un canal de dette limite à travers laquelle la température affecte le risque de défaut : un niveau de température plus élevé impacte négativement le taux de croissance du PIB, ce qui diminue le ratio de dette limite. Par conséquent, la probabilité de défaut augmente, ce qui se traduit par une augmentation de la prime de défaut.Le troisième chapitre s'intéresse à la relation entre le risque de défaut d'une part, et le risque d'occurrence des désastres naturels d'autre part, en particulier ceux qui sont liées au changement climatique. Pour comprendre ce lien, je développe un modèle de défaut souverain comportant une probabilité de désastre qui varie dans le temps. En premier lieu, je montre que la dette limite est une fonction décroissante et non-linéaire de la probabilité de désastre. Ensuite, j'étudie le rôle des anticipations des créanciers par rapport d'éventuels désastres dans le futur. Plus précisément, je compare trois types d'anticipations : anticipations constantes, naïves et rationnelles. Je montre que si les anticipations sont constantes, le ratio de dette limite est également constant. Dans le cas avec anticipations naïves, où les créanciers révisent la probabilité de désastre à chaque période sans tenir compte des variations futures de celle-ci, la dette limite varie dans le temps. Cependant, les créanciers sous-estiment considérablement le risque de défaut comparativement au cas avec anticipations rationnelles. Enfin, je montre qu'en présence du risque de désastre, le défaut peut survenir même dans un contexte très favorable où le taux d'intérêt sans risque reste à un niveau très bas inférieur au taux de croissance du PIB.

This article assesses the impact of immigrant and asylum seeker inflows on the size of the informal sector in host countries from a macroeconomic perspective. We use two indicators of informality provided by Medina and Schneider (2019) and Elgin and Oztunali (2012) combined with migration data from the OECD International Migration Database and data on asylum seeker flows from the UNHCR for the period 1997-2017. We estimate a first-difference model, instrumenting immigrant and asylum seeker flows by their predicted values derived from the estimation of a pseudo-gravity model. Results suggest that both immigrant and asylum seeker inflows increase the size of the informal sector at destination, but the size of the effect is very small: a one percentage point increase in the stock of immigrants as a share of population leads to an increase of the informal sector as a share of GDP of 0.05-0.06 percentage points. Unsurprisingly, the effect is about four times larger for asylum seeker flows, but remains economically insignificant. We investigate several potential channels, and find that integration policies do matter. We find no impact of imported norms or institutions, but rather that the effect is larger in destination countries with a large informal sector. A larger diversity in incoming flows is associated with a smaller impact on the informal sector. Finally, we document the dynamics with a VAR model.

International audience; We consider a simple economy where production depends on labor supply and social capital. Networking increases the social capital (“greases the wheel”) but also the corruption level (“sands the wheel”). Corruption is a negative productive externality. We compare the market economy, where the negative externality is not taken into account by individuals, with a centralized economy, where the planner internalizes the negative effect. We highlight the possible existence of cycles in the market economy and optimal cycles in the planned economy. We compare the centralized and the decentralized solutions in the short and long run.

A major aim for cooperatives is to become the model of stakeholders' organizations while keeping profitable. This supposes to resolve the three following points: to ensure an efficient management of resources which makes it possible to carry out transactions at a cost lower than that which would take place on the market; to design mechanisms of corporate governance allowing expression and implementation of stakeholders' interests and expectations; to implement mechanisms of control allowing to evaluate the action of top executives, particularly regarding satisfaction of expressed stakeholders expectations., Un des enjeux des coopératives est de devenir les Organisations de référence dans l'application du modèle des parties prenantes tout en étant viables économiquement. Ceci suppose de résoudre les trois points suivants : assurer une gestion efficiente des ressources qui permette de réaliser des transactions à un coût inférieur à celui qui aurait lieu sur le marché ; mettre en œuvre des mécanismes de gouvernance permettant l'expression et la prise en compte des intérêts des diverses parties-prenantes ; mettre en œuvre des mécanismes de gouvernance permettant d'évaluer ex post l'action des dirigeants et la réponse apportée aux attentes des parties prenantes.

International audience

As an alternative to the production of virgin materials, recycling brings competition in amarket dominated by an oligopoly of mining rms. Herein we investigate how recyclersaect the supply of materials in terms of market share and market power. An oligopoly ofnon-cooperative rms takes decisions about the level of extraction, knowing that this willaect the competition capacity of a fringe of competitive recyclers in the future. Hence,the mining rms are considered as leaders, and the market is completed by recyclersbeing considered as followers. The competition between mining rms as well as between the two sectors is described in a Cournot-Stackelberg model. We show the positive eectdepending on the small number of mining rms and their aggregated market share andprove that a technology threshold is required to allow recyclers to enter the market andcompete. Furthermore, we highlight that a signicant switch in market shares and adecrease in the market power only arise when the levels of the recycling technology andthe availability of scrap are both at a high level, while they vary a lot among countriesand materials.

International audience; This paper studies the interactions between the European carbon and green bond markets from the lens of the European power firms' trading activity over an eight-year period (2013-2020). Those power firms have used two segments of carbon markets differently: one for shortterm hedging and speculative purposes and one for long-term hedging needs. The second one is found to have an informational advantage over the other and complements it. Interestingly, we show that power firms have used the green bond market as a complement to the carbon futures market used for their short-term hedging or speculative activities. Instead, they have employed the green bond market as a substitute for the carbon futures market used for their long-term hedging activities since 2018. Taken together, our results shed light on a pivotal change in the behaviour of European power firms that progressively abandon the carbon market to issue more green bonds in order to finance their transition to clean energy production systems.

We consider an overlapping generations economy with altruism towards parents and a long-lived asset that delivers no dividends (pure bubble asset). We explore the role of ascendant altruism on the dynamics properties of equilibrium and rational bubbles in the cases of exogenous and endogenous growths.

We propose a mechanism that explains standard stylized facts in both international macroeconomics and international finance. To do so, we develop a New Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions a la Bernanke et al. (1999), in which we depart from the full-information rational expectations (FIRE) assumption. The key ingredient is home information bias (HIB) in expectations. While the FIRE model predicts high consumption co-movements, no departure from uncovered interest parity (UIP) and procyclical trade balance, assuming HIB makes the model consistent with the data by producing low consumption correlation, solving the quantity puzzle, generating endogenous departures from the UIP and matching a countercyclical trade balance. The mechanism is empirically validated and shown to be robust to the extent of frictions in the economy.

International audience; We show that both real indeterminacy and asset price bubble may appear in an infinite-horizon exchange economy with infinitely lived agents and an imperfect financial market. We explain how the asset structure and heterogeneity (in terms of preferences and endowments) affect the existence and the dynamics of asset price bubbles as well as the equilibrium indeterminacy. Moreover, this paper bridges the literature on bubbles in models with infinitely lived agents and that in overlapping generations models.

International audience; Until recently, little attention has been paid to the consequences of Hume's theory of action upon intertemporal decision. Nonetheless, some of their specicities have been emphasized by G. Davis 2003, A. Lapidus 2000, 2010, and I. Palacios-Huerta 2003. Through recurring discussions, concerning situations of conicting choice between a close and a remote objective, which run from the Treatise, Book 2 (Hume 1739-40), to the second Enquiry (Hume 1751) to the Dissertation (Hume 1757), intertemporal decision appears, at least for a part of it, as an outcome of the role of the natural relation of contiguity in the formation of a structure of desires, dierent from the structure of pleasure. This paper shows, and expresses formally, that Hume's approach provides alternative conditions explaining on the one hand time-consistency and, on the other hand, time-inconsistency when the link between contiguity and the violence of the passions is taken into account. The possibility of time-inconsistency is acknowledged by Hume as giving rise to general aversion, therefore constituting a key argument for explaining the origin of government.

International audience; In this article, we embed a model of disease spread into a Ramsey model. A stock of pollution, viewed as a productive externality, affects both the disease transmission and the consumption demand. An eco-friendly government levies a proportional Pigouvian tax on production to depollute. We show the coexistence of two steady states in the long run: a disease-free and an endemic steady state. At the endemic steady state, a higher green-tax rate always reduces the pollution level. In the short run, we show the existence of limit cycles (through a Hopf bifurcation) as well as more complex dynamics of codimension two (a Gavrilov-Guckenheimer bifurcation). We complete the study with a numerical illustration of these bifurcations and a new facet of the Green Paradox: a higher tax rate can allow more scope for cycles by lowering the critical aversion to pollution and, thus, contribute to destabilization of the economy and promotion of the intergenerational inequalities.

Entre 2000 et 2016, le nombre d’embauches en CDD de moins d’un mois a progressé de 161 % et celui en intérim de 32 % alors que sur la même période, le nombre d’embauches en CDI ou CDD de plus d’un mois n’a progressé que de 15 %. La forte progression des contrats temporaires dans les embauches s’explique ainsi depuis le début des années 2000 par un raccourcissement de la durée des contrats. Fin 2016, les embauches en CDD de moins d’un mois représentent 69 % des embauches hors intérim. Cette évolution apparaît assez spécifique au marché du travail français : la part des contrats temporaires dans l’emploi salarié du secteur concurrentiel excède la moyenne européenne et la part des contrats de moins de 3 mois y est beaucoup plus élevée qu’en Allemagne, au Danemark ou même en Italie. Pour comprendre les mécanismes à l’œuvre, la Dares a lancé un appel à projet de recherche (APR) autour de trois axes : - Pourquoi, dans quels cas et selon quelles modalités, les entreprises recourent-elles au contrats courts ? - Quelle réalité recouvre la succession de contrats courts pour les travailleurs en France et quel est le rôle des dispositifs publics et de la réglementation des contrats dans ce développement ? - Quelles sont les caractéristiques des personnes recrutées en contrats courts et quelles conséquences le passage par un ou plusieurs contrats courts a-t-il sur leurs trajectoires professionnelles à plus long terme ? Jusqu’ici, dans les travaux qualitatifs et/ou sociologiques, la question de l’interaction entre l’usage de contrats courts et l’assurance chômage se limite aux différents métiers du spectacle, parfois comparés à la situation des pigistes. IDHE-S (Institutions et dynamiques historiques de l’économie et de la société) de l’Université de Nanterre et le CEET-CNAM étudient le spectre des usages possibles des contrats courts et des dispositifs d’activité réduite de l’assurance chômage. En effet, l’augmentation des contrats courts pourrait relever à la fois d’une logique générale applicable à tout le marché du travail et aussi de contextes sectoriels : D’un côté, l’augmentation générale des contrats courts semble bien indiquer une tendance commune. De l’autre, le recours au CDD d’usage semble concentré sur certains secteurs.

International audience; We are developing a matching model that reproduces the impact of the sanitary restrictions induced by the Covid-19 crisis on French unemployment, taking into account its heterogenous impacts between various educational levels. We identify the size of the restrictions on sales for each labor market segment and the different use of short-time working program. Our results are obtained thanks to an original matching model integrating (i) time-varying microeconomic risks, (ii) and congestion externalities making unit costs of vacancy posting varying. Afterwards, (i) we evaluate the impact of the short-time working program on unemployment rates by diploma, (ii) we compare different scenarios of the lockdown (short but strict vs long but flexible) and (iii) we forecast the impact of a similar lockdown of March 2020 at the end of March 2021.; Nous développons un modèle d’appariement qui reproduit l’impact de la chronique non-anticipée des restrictions liées à la crise de la Covid-19 sur le chômage français, en tenant compte de l’hétérogénéité entre les différents niveaux d’éducation. Nous identifions l’ampleur des restrictions sur les ventes de chaque segment du marché du travail, ainsi que le recours différencié aux mesures de chômage partiel. Nos résultats sont obtenus grâce à un modèle d’appariement original intégrant à la fois (i) des risques microéconomiques variant dans le temps et (ii) des externalités de congestion faisant varier les coûts unitaires de recrutement. Ensuite, (i) nous évaluons l’impact des mesures de chômage partiel sur les taux de chômage par diplôme, (ii) nous comparons différents scénarios de confinement (court mais strict versus long mais souple), et (iii) nous prévoyons l’impact d’un troisième confinement de Mars à avril 2021.

We develop a matching model that predicts the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on US unemployment, while accounting for the contrasted impacts across various job types. The model is calibrated on the subprime experience and is then used to identify the job-specific lockdown shocks, using observed worker flows by diploma. The model persistence-which is significantly larger than in the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model-is dampened by CARES act that facilitates the use of temporary separations. Counterfactual experiments show that time-varying risk, hiring cost externalities, and wage rigidity are needed to account for these crises.

We study the impact of local immigration inflows on natives’ wages using a large French administrative panel from 1976 to 2007. We show that local immigration inflows are followed by reallocations of blue-collar natives across commuting zones. Because these reallocations vary with the initial occupation, and blue-collar location movers have wages below the blue-collar average, controlling for changes in local composition is crucial to assess how wages adjust to immigration. Immigration temporarily lowers the wages of blue-collar workers, with unskilled workers experiencing larger losses. Location movers lose more than stayers in terms of daily wages but move to locations with cheaper housing.

International audience; This contribution1 introduces a sectoral supply functions approach of equilibrium dynamics in the context of a simple model of overlapping generations with heterogeneous goods. The class of preferences that is here considered hinges upon an endogenous leisure motive and an elementary savings behaviour, that comes as a simpler alternative to the Diamond tradition in the benchmark contributions about the properties of overlapping generations economies with two industries. The presence of some institution making possible intergenerational transfers is shown to influence both the equilibrium aggregate factors shares and elasticity of substitution along a stationary equilibrium. Both Wealth-to-Capital and Golden Rule steady state equilibria being considered, the economies are categorised, either as Samuelsonian or classical, according to the sign of the transfers between generations at the Golden Rule steady state. The local stability properties of the various types of equilibria are successively investigated, the elasticities of substitution between the two inputs being emphasised to play a key-role for that purpose. Interestingly, the smoothing properties of factors substitution and their respective contribution to the obtention of the local uniqueness property may differ between the Samuelsonian and classical economies.

In this work we introduce a general equilibrium model with landlords, indebted owner-occupiers and renters to study housing markets' dynamics. We estimate it by using standard Bayesian methods and match the US data of the last decades. This framework is particularly suited to explain current trends on housing markets. We highlight the crucial relationship between interest rates, house prices and rents, and argue that it helps understanding the main driving forces. Our analysis suggests that current developments on housing markets can play a role for a recovery from the Covid pandemic as they have an expansionary effect on aggregate output. Moreover, we account for the heterogeneous impact of crisis-induced policies depending on agents' status on the housing market. We show how, despite an increase in housing prices, the welfare of landlords has been negatively hit. This is associated to the joint decrease in returns on housing and financial assets that reduces their financial incomes.

Globalization is a complex phenomenon, best represented by a general framework in which all financial markets and some goods markets adjust quickly, while for the other goods markets prices vary across countries. We consider a two-period financial model. In the first period, agents consume, buy and sell financial assets to diversify their portfolios. In the second period, they spend their endowments and financial gains to purchase consumption goods. We define the concept equilibrium*, in which the total nominal value of trade is balanced and, for any non-negative individualized system of prices, the total nominal value of demand does not exceed the total value of supply. This equilibrium* coincides with the standard concept of equilibrium when the Law of One Price (LOP) is satisfied for any country. In this model, we introduce imperfect international trade. Assuming that Uncovered Interest (rate) Parity (UIP) holds in all financial markets and the LOP does not hold in some goods markets, we prove that an equilibrium* does exist; for markets in which the LOP fails, however, the equilibrium becomes autarkic. This result explains why financial markets and some goods markets are globally integrated, while trade fails in other markets. The world economy is fully globalized only if the LOP holds everywhere.

International audience; The green bond market has dramatically expanded especially in Europe but severe liquidity issues may undermine its rapid development. If few studies have assessed the implied liquidity risks for investors in terms of liquidity premium, none of them have specifically analysed its behavior across bond maturities. To fill this gap, this paper studies the term structure of the liquidity premium of the green bond market. We find that the sizes of short-term and long-term premia are close to those estimated on the German government bond market. We show that those premia are affected by economic factors and by spillover effects between them, which contribute to the U-Shape of the liquidity premium. Finally, we detect a liquidity clientele effect on the ask side impacting the liquidity premium, which implies a maturity segmentation i.e., high-risk (resp. low-risk) investors buy short-term (resp. long-term) green bonds and hold them until maturity. Taken together, our results deliver valuable insights on investors' strategies in the green bond market. Quite importantly, green bond investors prefer to opt for buy and hold strategies because they are compensated for higher liquidity risks along the entire maturity spectrum.

This article considers an inter-temporal optimization problem in a fairly general form and give sufficient conditions ensuring the convergence to infinity of the economy. These conditions are easy to verify and can be applied for a large class of problems in literature. As examples, some applications for different economies are also given.

International audience; This paper studies the impact of uncertainty on cross-border investments. We build a data-set of firm-level outward Foreign Direct Investments between 2000 and 2015. We create a time and country varying measure of uncertainty based on the dispersion of idiosyncratic investment returns. An increase in uncertainty delays cross-border flows to the affected country. Yet, this average effect hides strong heterogeneity. Firms with low ex-ante performance durably reduce their foreign investments. Meanwhile high-performing firms increase their investments after the initial shock. We interpret these results as the evidence of a cleansing effect of uncertainty shocks among multinational firms in the presence of financial frictions. © 2020

International audience; This article considers a two-sector economy with externalities. In particular, the analysis involves an industrial sector whose polluting production activities have negative effects on the regeneration of a natural resource in the other sector. Without convexity or supermodularity, we prove that the economy evolves to increase the net gain of stock (a similar notion to the net gain of investment in Kamihigashi and Roy (2007)), and establish the conditions ensuring the convergence of the economy in the long run.

We document how differences in labour demand by gender explain the contrasting evolutions of labour force participation between men and women during the Great Recession in Europe. We first highlight that Europe is characterized by high levels of occupational segregation by gender. As a result, the large job losses in middle-paid occupations during the Great Recession affected male workers disproportionally. In contrast, the fact that higher- and lower-paid occupations were less affected was more favourable to women. Using individual panel data, we investigate how the labour force participation and regional mobility of men and women responded to these shocks. We find that the labour force participation of women increased considerably in the regions most affected by the destruction of men's jobs and with relatively higher labour demand in occupations more likely to employ women. Women with higher levels of education were also more likely to move to regions with higher labour demand in these occupations. We find that not considering the mobility of women with higher education levels can bias the estimates of the impact of labour demand shocks on participation. For men, unemployment increased in response to regional declines in male labour demand. However, regional shocks explain none of the decline in male labour force participation.

We study optimal fiscal policy in an economy plunged into a deep recession characterized by a liquidity trap, and in which the government can allocate spending both to consumption and investment goods. Public investment increases the stock of public capital subject to a time-to-build constraint. The zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate binds as a result of a large shock that increases households’ desire to save in the risk-free asset, pushing the natural rate of interest below zero. Under nominal rigidities and sub-optimal monetary policy, the shock leads to a large decline in private consumption and investment. We show that the optimal response to such a shock is to temporarily raise public spending above the level that would be dictated by classical principles, and to tilt its composition towards public investment. This compositional shift lasts well after the natural rate has ceased to be negative. Our results suggest that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 was insufficiently oriented towards public investment.

International audience; This paper studies the term structure of the liquidity premium of the European green bond market along three liquidity (short-term, medium-term, and long-term) premia.If the liquidity premium is an increasing function of bond’s maturity, the estimated sizes of liquidity premia are comparable to those found on the German government bond markets. We then show that liquidity premia are moderately sensitive to economic determinants. Moreover, we detect a liquidity clientele effect on the ask side, which contributes to increase all liquidity premia. This clientele effect is, however, mitigated by spillover effects operating from the short-end to the long-end of the term structure and vice versa. In sum, our results deliver valuable insights on investors’ strategies in the European green bond market, notably those of long-term investors who are not only compensated for their higher illiquidity risks but also provide market stability with their buy and hold strategies.

International audience; This article analyzes a one-sector growth model where the consumption takes time. When the consumption takes time, the consumption set is compact and we meet satiety. However, we prove that dynamic constraints are binding. This result is crucial to prove that, under well-known assumptions in macroeconomic dynamic programming, the optimal path is monotonic and always converges to a unique nontrivial steady state as in the case where consumption is timeless.

International audience; Herd immunity is a central concept in epidemiology. It refers to a situation where the amount of recovered and immune individuals is high enough to protect susceptibles from contracting the disease. Herd immunity can be obtained naturally when individuals recover from the disease, or artificially after the administration of an appropriate vaccine. The present paper addresses the question of the amount of public spending in medical research to obtain a vaccine which maximizes welfare. Public spending is assumed to reduce the waiting time to discover a vaccine against an infectious disease evolving according to a SIR model. Both linear and logarithmic preferences are considered with and without time discounting. Worth to note, we show that if an economy has a sufficiently performing technology, then the government should invest as much as the initial public budget allows.

In the first two chapters, we study the optimal contract problem in presence of risk and ambiguity as an optimal control problem. Ambiguity is modeled according to Klibanoff et al. (2005). Our approach generalizes all the analyses caried out so far by considering the insurance contract as a pair of an indemnity function and a premium to be solved for simultaneously. We prove the existence of an optimal contract in the most general case, allowing for the principal or the insurance to be averse or neutral to risk or ambiguity. We characterize both the risk and ambiguity sharing rule between the contracting parties. In the case of one-sided ambiguity aversion, we show that an optimal insurance contract cannot contain a straight deductible policy. Furthermore, under the hypothesis that the conditional densities can be ranked according to the monotone likelihood ratio, we prove that a disappearing deductible contract is optimal, a result that is consistent with Gollier (2014). In particular, our method completes the analysis of Raviv (1979), showing that in the pure risk case with a risk-neutral insurer, a policy with an upper limit coverage cannot be optimal. This result also holds under ambiguity neutrality.In the third chapter, I examine the impact of risk and ambiguity on the optimal investment in human and physical capital in a two-period Ben-Porath (1967)'s model. Uncertainty (both in the form of risk and ambiguity) is introduced to the accumulation of human capital via two channels. When uncertainty is on the depreciation rate of human capital (uncertain obsolescence of skills), I have found that the optimal investment in human capital always increases, whether or not physical capital is present. This response to uncertainty of an optimizing household represents the typical self-insurance behavior. By contrast, when uncertainty is on the effectiveness of human capital accumulation, the optimal investment in human capital diminishes among the households with a degree of constant risk aversion less than one. This response to uncertainty is typical of a household who views human capital as an investment with risky/ambiguous return.The final chapter (relatively independent from the preceding chapters) examines an important subject in the theory of economic growth: the role of renewable resources and externalities in the economy. The introduction of a (natural resource) regenerating function that is non-concave with respect to one of its arguments renders the problem non-convex. In consequence, we can no longer apply traditional dynamic programming techniques to this model. We thus propose a new method to study two-sector economies with externalities. In particular, we introduce the notion of "the net gain of stock", which is a notion similar to "the net gain of investment" of Kamihigashi et al. (2007). In absence of the usual convex and supermodular requirements, we prove that the economy evolves to increase the net gain of stock, and establish conditions that ensure long-run convergence. This approach can be adapted to similar problems previously studied, or be extended to the analysis of multi-sector economies in general.; Dans le deux premiers chapitres, nous étudions le problème du contrat optimal en présence de risque et de l'ambiguïté dans le cadre d'un problème du contrôle optimal. L'ambiguïté est modélisés selon Klibanoff et al. (2005). Notre approche généralise les analyses effectuées jusqu'à présent en considérant le contrat d'assurance comme la paire d'une prime et une fonction d'indemnisation à résoudre simultanément. Nous prouvons l'existence d'un contrat optimal dans le cas le plus général où tous les agents peuvent être simultanément averses à l'ambiguïté et au risque, ce qui englobe tous les cas précédemment examinés. Nous caractérisons non seulement le partage du risque mais aussi la règle du partage de l'ambiguïté entre les parties contractantes. Dans le cas de l'aversion vers l'ambiguïté unilatérale, nous montrons qu'une politique de franchise directe ne peut pas constituer un contrat d'assurance optimal. Au contraire, sous l'hypothèse que les densités conditionnelles puissent être classées selon le rapport de vraisemblance monotone, un contrat avec des franchises qui disparaissent est optimal, un résultat qui est cohérent avec Gollier (2014). En particulier, la méthodologie mise en œuvre complète l'analyse de Raviv (1979) pour le cas du risque pur avec un assureur neutre au risque, montrant qu'une couverture de limite supérieure ne peut pas constituer un optimum. Ce résultat est robuste à la neutralité de l'ambiguïté.Dans le troisième chapitre, j'ai examiné l'impact du risque et de l'ambiguïté sur l'investissement optimal dans le capital humain et le capital physique en utilisant le modèle de Ben-Porath (1967) à deux périodes. L'incertitude (à la fois dans le sens du risque et de l'ambiguïté) est introduite à l'accumulation de capital humain de deux façons. Lorsque l'incertitude porte sur le taux de dépréciation du capital humain (obsolescence incertaine des compétences), j'ai constaté que l'investissement optimal dans le capital humain augmente toujours, que soit présent ou non le capital physique. Cette réponse à l'incertitude d'un ménage représente le comportement typique de l'auto-assurance. En revanche, lorsque l'incertitude se porte sur l'efficacité de l'accumulation du capital humain, l'investissement optimal dans le capital humain diminue parmi les ménages avec l'aversion au risque relative constante inférieure à un. Cette réponse à l'incertitude est typique d'un ménage qui considère l'investissement comme un actif à rendement risqué au lieu d'une assurance.Le dernier chapitre (relativement indépendant des chapitres précédents) examine une question importante dans la théorie de la croissance: le rôle des ressources renouvelables et des externalités dans l'économie. L'introduction d'une fonction régénératrice (d'une ressource naturelle) non-concave par rapport à l'un des arguments rend le problème non convexe. En conséquence, nous ne pouvons plus utiliser les techniques traditionnelles de programmation dynamique. En attaquant ce probpème, nous proposons une nouvelle méthode pour étudier une économie à deux secteurs en présence des externalités. En l'occurrence, nous introduisons le concept de "gain net de stock", qui est une notion similaire au "gain net d'investissement" introduit par Kamihigashi et al. (2007). En absence des propriétés convexes ou supermodulaires habituelles, nous prouvons que l'économie évolue pour augmenter le gain net de stock et établissons les conditions assurant la convergence de l'économie à long terme. Cette approche peut être appliquée aux problèmes similaires précédemment posées, ou être étendu à l'analyse des économies multisectorielles en général.

In the first two chapters, we study the optimal contract problem in presence of risk and ambiguity as an optimal control problem. Ambiguity is modeled according to Klibanoff et al. (2005). Our approach generalizes all the analyses caried out so far by considering the insurance contract as a pair of an indemnity function and a premium to be solved for simultaneously. We prove the existence of an optimal contract in the most general case, allowing for the principal or the insurance to be averse or neutral to risk or ambiguity. We characterize both the risk and ambiguity sharing rule between the contracting parties. In the case of one-sided ambiguity aversion, we show that an optimal insurance contract cannot contain a straight deductible policy. Furthermore, under the hypothesis that the conditional densities can be ranked according to the monotone likelihood ratio, we prove that a disappearing deductible contract is optimal, a result that is consistent with Gollier (2014). In particular, our method completes the analysis of Raviv (1979), showing that in the pure risk case with a risk-neutral insurer, a policy with an upper limit coverage cannot be optimal. This result also holds under ambiguity neutrality.In the third chapter, I examine the impact of risk and ambiguity on the optimal investment in human and physical capital in a two-period Ben-Porath (1967)'s model. Uncertainty (both in the form of risk and ambiguity) is introduced to the accumulation of human capital via two channels. When uncertainty is on the depreciation rate of human capital (uncertain obsolescence of skills), I have found that the optimal investment in human capital always increases, whether or not physical capital is present. This response to uncertainty of an optimizing household represents the typical self-insurance behavior. By contrast, when uncertainty is on the effectiveness of human capital accumulation, the optimal investment in human capital diminishes among the households with a degree of constant risk aversion less than one. This response to uncertainty is typical of a household who views human capital as an investment with risky/ambiguous return.The final chapter (relatively independent from the preceding chapters) examines an important subject in the theory of economic growth: the role of renewable resources and externalities in the economy. The introduction of a (natural resource) regenerating function that is non-concave with respect to one of its arguments renders the problem non-convex. In consequence, we can no longer apply traditional dynamic programming techniques to this model. We thus propose a new method to study two-sector economies with externalities. In particular, we introduce the notion of "the net gain of stock", which is a notion similar to "the net gain of investment" of Kamihigashi et al. (2007). In absence of the usual convex and supermodular requirements, we prove that the economy evolves to increase the net gain of stock, and establish conditions that ensure long-run convergence. This approach can be adapted to similar problems previously studied, or be extended to the analysis of multi-sector economies in general.; Dans le deux premiers chapitres, nous étudions le problème du contrat optimal en présence de risque et de l'ambiguïté dans le cadre d'un problème du contrôle optimal. L'ambiguïté est modélisés selon Klibanoff et al. (2005). Notre approche généralise les analyses effectuées jusqu'à présent en considérant le contrat d'assurance comme la paire d'une prime et une fonction d'indemnisation à résoudre simultanément. Nous prouvons l'existence d'un contrat optimal dans le cas le plus général où tous les agents peuvent être simultanément averses à l'ambiguïté et au risque, ce qui englobe tous les cas précédemment examinés. Nous caractérisons non seulement le partage du risque mais aussi la règle du partage de l'ambiguïté entre les parties contractantes. Dans le cas de l'aversion vers l'ambiguïté unilatérale, nous montrons qu'une politique de franchise directe ne peut pas constituer un contrat d'assurance optimal. Au contraire, sous l'hypothèse que les densités conditionnelles puissent être classées selon le rapport de vraisemblance monotone, un contrat avec des franchises qui disparaissent est optimal, un résultat qui est cohérent avec Gollier (2014). En particulier, la méthodologie mise en œuvre complète l'analyse de Raviv (1979) pour le cas du risque pur avec un assureur neutre au risque, montrant qu'une couverture de limite supérieure ne peut pas constituer un optimum. Ce résultat est robuste à la neutralité de l'ambiguïté.Dans le troisième chapitre, j'ai examiné l'impact du risque et de l'ambiguïté sur l'investissement optimal dans le capital humain et le capital physique en utilisant le modèle de Ben-Porath (1967) à deux périodes. L'incertitude (à la fois dans le sens du risque et de l'ambiguïté) est introduite à l'accumulation de capital humain de deux façons. Lorsque l'incertitude porte sur le taux de dépréciation du capital humain (obsolescence incertaine des compétences), j'ai constaté que l'investissement optimal dans le capital humain augmente toujours, que soit présent ou non le capital physique. Cette réponse à l'incertitude d'un ménage représente le comportement typique de l'auto-assurance. En revanche, lorsque l'incertitude se porte sur l'efficacité de l'accumulation du capital humain, l'investissement optimal dans le capital humain diminue parmi les ménages avec l'aversion au risque relative constante inférieure à un. Cette réponse à l'incertitude est typique d'un ménage qui considère l'investissement comme un actif à rendement risqué au lieu d'une assurance.Le dernier chapitre (relativement indépendant des chapitres précédents) examine une question importante dans la théorie de la croissance: le rôle des ressources renouvelables et des externalités dans l'économie. L'introduction d'une fonction régénératrice (d'une ressource naturelle) non-concave par rapport à l'un des arguments rend le problème non convexe. En conséquence, nous ne pouvons plus utiliser les techniques traditionnelles de programmation dynamique. En attaquant ce probpème, nous proposons une nouvelle méthode pour étudier une économie à deux secteurs en présence des externalités. En l'occurrence, nous introduisons le concept de "gain net de stock", qui est une notion similaire au "gain net d'investissement" introduit par Kamihigashi et al. (2007). En absence des propriétés convexes ou supermodulaires habituelles, nous prouvons que l'économie évolue pour augmenter le gain net de stock et établissons les conditions assurant la convergence de l'économie à long terme. Cette approche peut être appliquée aux problèmes similaires précédemment posées, ou être étendu à l'analyse des économies multisectorielles en général.

International audience; This study seeks to understand the impact of microfinance on energy access in the peripheral districts of Lomé in Togo. We use descriptive statistics, multiple regression, propensity score matching and treatment effect models, involving 639 microfinance client and non-client households for the analysis. Our results show that microfinance reduces energy vulnerability, with microfinance clients having higher energy poverty indices and energy expenditures than non-client households. Based on the impact of microfinance on energy poverty reduction, we argue that it is important for policymakers to implement strategies that promote and create greater access to microfinance, as this has the potential to alleviate energy poverty and improve access to good quality, modern energy services in Togo. © 2020, © 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

International audience; The recent COVID-19 crisis has revealed the urgent need to study the impact of an infectious disease on market economies and provide adequate policy recommendations. The present paper studies the optimal lockdown policy in a dynamic general equilibrium model where households are altruistic and they care about the share of infected individuals. The spread of the disease is modeled here using SIS dynamics, which implies that recovery does not confer immunity. To avoid non-convexity issues, we assume that the lockdown is constant in time. This strong assumption allows us to provide analytical solutions. We find that the zero lockdown is efficient when agents do not care about the share of infected, while a positive lockdown is recommended beyond a critical level of altruism. Moreover, the lockdown intensity increases in the degree of altruism. Our robust analytical results are illustrated by numerical simulations, which show, in particular, that the optimal lockdown never trespasses 60% and that eradication is not always optimal.

This paper examines the cost competitiveness of an extra-large-scale (275,000 m3/d) solar-powered desalination, taking as a case study the Chtouka Ait Baha plant in Morocco. It assesses the conditions at which solar Photovoltaics (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) would be competitive with a grid (mainly fossil) driven desalination plant for the reference year and by 2030. The paper considers also a scenario where battery storage complements PV power generation. To conduct the analysis, a simple model of water cost calculation is built. Second, the cost related to energy consumption is calculated for different power supply options to evaluate the impact of energy provision cost on the final cost of water. The first main result of this paper is that desalinated water can be obtained at an acceptable cost of around 1 $/m3. The second one is that PV without storage remains the cheapest power supply option today and by 2030. Storage based solution appears less competitive today but can be more attractive in a framework of increasing electricity grid prices and higher flexibility requirements in the future. The paper gives recommendations regarding the implication of different technology choices in the framework of the future Moroccan energy system., Highlights • A water cost model for a Reverse Osmosis (RO) unit is developed. • A general methodology to assess the impact of power supply in the final cost of water is proposed. • Power supply options including the grid, solar technologies and storage are compared in the case of a RO plant in Morocco. • PV powered RO without storage is the most cost competitive design for large-scale units. • CSP powered RO and PV powered RO with batteries are expected to become attractive by 2030.

International audience; Biologists point out that biodiversity loss contributes to promote the transmission of diseases. In epidemiology, this phenomenon is known as dilution effect. Our paper aims to introduce this effect in an economic model where the spread of an infectious disease is considered. More precisely, we embed a SIS model into a Ramsey model (1928) where a pollution externality coming from production affects the evolution of biodiversity. Biodiversity is assimilated to a renewable resource and affects the infectivity of the disease (dilution effect). A green tax is levied on production at the firm level to finance depollution according to a balanced budget rule. In the long run, a disease-free and an endemic regime are possible. We focus only on the second case and we find that the magnitude of the dilution effect determines the number of steady states. When the dilution effect remains low, there are two cases depending on the environmental impact of production: (1) a low impact implies two steady states with high and low biodiversity respectively; (2) a large impact rules out any steady state. Conversely, when the dilution effect becomes high, a (unique) steady state always exists: a strong dilution effect works as a buffer and prevents the human pressure from being lethal for biodiversity in the long run. Moreover, under a low dilution effect, a higher green tax rate always impairs biodiversity at the low steady state, while this green paradox is over under a high dilution effect. In the short run, we show that a limit cycle can arise around the high biodiversity steady state when the dilution effect is low. Surprisingly, the limit cycle is preserved under a high dilution effect. In other words, even if a strong dilution effect preserves the biodiversity in the long run and prevents the economy from the green paradox, it does not shelter the economy from the occurrence of biodiversity fluctuations.

International audience; We introduce an infinite-horizon endogenous growth framework for studying the effects of foreign aid on the economic growth in a recipient country. Aid is used to partially finance the recipient’s public investment. We point out that the same rule of aid may have very different outcomes, depending on the recipient’s circumstances in terms of development level, domestic investment, efficiency in the use of aid and in public investment, etc. Foreign aid may promote growth in the recipient country, but the global dynamics of equilibrium are complex (because of the non-monotonicity and steady state multiplicity). The economy may converge to a steady state or grow without bounds. Moreover, there are rooms for the divergence and a two-period cycle. We characterize conditions under which each scenario takes place. Our analysis contributes to the debate on the nexus between aid and economic growth and in particular on the conditionality of aid effects.

International audience; In this paper we propose a flexible tool to estimate the risk sensitivity of financial assets when exposed to any sort of risks, including extreme ones, from the financial markets and the real economy. This tool works with observations and a priori views. Our contribution is threefold. First, we combine copulas and factorial structures which allow us to capture the whole dependencies between the returns of a large number of assets of multiple classes. We build what we call a Cvine Risk Factors (CVRF) model, which can disentangle financial and explicitely economic like activity, inflation, emerging, etc, and more generally speaking real sphere related risks. Second, this model provides the way to extend the well known linear multibeta relationship in a non-linear version and to assess the exposures of any asset to several factorial risk directions in the cases where the risks are extreme. The exposure measures are relevant Cross Conditional Values at Risk (Cross-CVaR). Third, as an application of the methodology, we solve an optimization program to find portfolios that are the most diversified in capital while being immunized to extreme shocks to a given risk factorial direction. Varying the immunization constraint, we recover the portfolio strategies which are the most widely used today. For example, adopting the ERC (Equal Risk Contribution) rule insures optimal capital based diversification and immunization against inflation risk. Accordingly, we propose a unified view and a rationalization ex post of several current portfolio strategies that appear different at a first glance.

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) establishes that the general level of prices is determined at equilibrium in order to satisfy the intertemporal government budget constraint. Importantly, in a representative agent framework, this theory requires that the present value of future primary surpluses has to be strictly positive. In a richer framework where the economy is non-Ricardian-an overlapping generations of infinitely-lived agents model-and where the monetary policy is constrained by the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates, we show that the FTPL case arises endogenously, even when exogenous primary surpluses are null. In such a framework, a bubble-like component of government debt induces the price level determinacy by the fiscal policy and affects its equilibrium level. © 2020 GENES (Groupe des Ecoles en Economie et Statistiques). All rights reserved.

We consider a growth model à la Lucas (1988), where human capital has an additional positive effect on social welfare through the quality of individual health and education. Considering a simple example with isoe-lastic technology and preferences, we show that, differently from Lucas' contribution, the BGP is optimal only in the specific case in which consumption and human capital have equal weight in total utility. In general, the BGP fails to be optimal. Indeed, when the weight of consumption exceeds that of human capital, the household chooses to spend all her time working from a critical date on. As a result, if individuals do not appreciate enough human capital, then they fix a ceiling level of human capital. On the contrary, the working time decreases to zero when the weight of human capital exceeds that of consumption. On methodologi-cal ground, very interestingly, we obtain a strictly positive transversality condition. Furthermore, we compute the explicit optimal trajectories for human capital, labor supply and consumption demand.

In this paper, we introduce a unified Ramsey model where pollution has an impact on preferences and affects both consumption demand and labor supply. Pollution comes from production activities and is viewed as a stock variable with a strong inertia. A government is introduced and levies a proportional tax on production to finance depollution expenditure. We find two interesting results when pollution raises the consumption demand (compensation effect). First, in the long run, a higher green-tax rate increases the pollution level at the steady state (green paradox) when pollution raises the labor supply (disenchantment effect). Second, in the short run, local indeterminacy can arise through a Hopf bifurcation when pollution lowers the labor supply (leisure effect) even if pollution has a strong inertia.

International audience; In October 2015 the European Parliament has established a Market Stability Reserve (MSR) in the Phase 4 of the EU-ETS, as part of the 2030 framework for climate policies. In this paper we model the EU-ETS in presence of the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) as it is defined by that decision and investigate the impact that such a measure has in terms of permits price, output production and banking strategies. To do so we build an inter-temporal model in which polluting firms competing in an homogeneous good market are price takers in a permits market and face an uncertain demand. Our main finding is that the MSR succeeds in increasing the permits' price correcting an excess supply (and conversely decreasing it in case of excess demand). However, when the output demand is stochastic, the MSR may alter the arbitrage conditions that determine permits' prices. In some cases which depend on the extend of the demand variation, unintended effects on the price pattern appear. This in turns may adversely affect welfare.

International audience; We consider a model with a finite number of states of nature where short sells are allowed. We present a notion of no-arbitrage price weaker than the one of Werner (1987) that we call weak no-arbitrage price. We prove that in the case of maximin expected utility functions, the existence of one common weak no-arbitrage price is equivalent to the existence of an equilibrium. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.

International audience; This paper analyzes the business cycle behavior of the corporate debt structure and its interaction with economic recovery. The debt structure is measured as the share of bonds in the total credit to non-financial corporations for a quarterly panel of countries over the period 1989–2013. We first show that the substitution of loans for bonds in recoveries is a regular property of business cycles. Secondly, we provide evidence that economies with high bond share and important bond-loan substitution recover from the recessions faster. This identified link between corporate debt structure and business cycles is robust to the inclusion of traditional factors which shape recessions and recovery such as the size and the quality of financial markets, the occurrence of bank crisis, the dynamics of credit, and the distribution of firm size. © 2017 Elsevier B.V.

International audience; Countries are implementing policies to develop greener energy markets worldwide. In Europe, the “2030 Energy and Climate Package” asks for further reductions of green house gases, renewable sources integration, and energy efficiency targets. But the polluting intensity of electricity may be different in average than when considering market inefficiencies, in particular losses, and therefore the implemented policy must take those differences into account. Precisely, herein we study the importance in terms of CO2 emissions the extra amount of energy necessary to cover losses. With this purpose we use Spanish market and system data with hourly frequency from 2011 to 2013. Our results show that indeed electricity losses significantly explain CO2 emissions, with a higher CO2 emissions rate when covering losses than the average rate of the system. Additionally, we find that the market closing technologies used to cover losses have a positive and significant impact on CO2 emissions: when polluting technologies (coal or combined cycle) close the market, the impact of losses on CO2 emissions is high compared to the rest of technologies (combined heat and power, renewables or hydropower). To the light of these results we make some policy recommendations to reduce the impact of losses on CO2 emissions.