1. Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low‐Cloud Feedback.
- Author
-
Ceppi, P., Myers, T. A., Nowack, P., Wall, C. J., and Zelinka, M. D.
- Abstract
How low clouds respond to warming constitutes a key uncertainty for climate projections. Here we observationally constrain low‐cloud feedback through a controlling factor analysis based on ridge regression. We find a moderately positive global low‐cloud feedback (0.45 W m−2 ${\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$K−1 ${\mathrm{K}}^{-1}$, 90% range 0.18–0.72 W m−2 ${\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$K−1 ${\mathrm{K}}^{-1}$), about twice the mean value (0.22 W m−2 ${\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$K−1 ${\mathrm{K}}^{-1}$) of 16 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We link this discrepancy to a pervasive model mean‐state bias: models underestimate the low‐cloud response to warming because (a) they systematically underestimate present‐day tropical marine low‐cloud amount, and (b) the low‐cloud sensitivity to warming is proportional to this present‐day low‐cloud amount. Our results hence highlight the importance of reducing model biases in both the mean state of clouds and their sensitivity to environmental factors for accurate climate change projections. Plain Language Summary: Low clouds have a large impact on climate by reflecting a portion of incoming sunlight back to space. Hence any future changes in clouds under global warming could amplify or dampen climate change—a phenomenon known as "cloud feedback." Climate models however disagree on future low‐cloud changes, resulting in large uncertainty in future global‐warming projections. Here we perform a statistical analysis of global satellite observations of low clouds, using observed co‐variations between clouds and meteorology to constrain the feedback simulated by climate models. We find evidence of an amplifying feedback by low clouds, stronger than simulated by most climate models. We link this discrepancy to a low‐cloud deficit across wide swathes of the tropical oceans characterized by abundant low cloud cover in observations. Thus to reduce climate projection uncertainty, we propose it is important to understand and mitigate the low‐cloud deficit in climate models. Key Points: We implement a statistical learning‐based analysis to constrain low‐cloud feedback, with strong out‐of‐sample predictive skillThe observationally constrained global‐mean feedback is about double the mean value from an ensemble of 16 climate modelsThis discrepancy is consistent with a pervasive underestimate of mean‐state tropical marine low‐cloud amount in the models [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF