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1. While the tendency to return to previously visited locations - termed 'site fidelity' - is common in animals, the cause of this behaviour is not well understood. One hypothesis is that site fidelity is shaped by an animal's environment, such that animals living in landscapes with predictable resources have stronger site fidelity. Site fidelity may also be conditional on the success of animals' recent visits to that location, and it may become stronger with age as the animal accumulates experience in their landscape. Finally, differences between species, such as the way memory shapes site attractiveness, may interact with environmental drivers to modulate the strength of site fidelity.2. We compared inter-year site fidelity in 669 individuals across eight ungulate species fitted with GPS-collars and occupying a range of environmental conditions in North America and Africa. We used a distance-based index of site fidelity and tested hypothesized drivers of site fidelity using linear mixed effects models, while accounting for variation in annual range size.3. Mule deer Odocoileus hemionus and moose Alces alces exhibited relatively strong site fidelity, while wildebeest Connochaetes taurinus and barren-ground caribou Rangifer tarandus granti had relatively weak fidelity. Site fidelity was strongest in predictable landscapes where vegetative greening occurred at regular intervals over time (i.e. high temporal contingency). Species differed in their response to spatial heterogeneity in greenness (i.e. spatial constancy). Site fidelity varied seasonally in some species, but remained constant over time in others. Elk employed a 'win-stay, lose-switch' strategy, in which successful resource tracking in the springtime resulted in strong site fidelity the following spring. Site fidelity did not vary with age in any species tested.4. Our results provide support for the environmental hypothesis, particularly that regularity in vegetative phenology shapes the strength of site fidelity at the inter-annual scale. Large unexplained differences in site fidelity suggest that other factors, possibly species-specific differences in attraction to known sites, contribute to variation in the expression of this behaviour.5. Understanding drivers of variation in site fidelity across groups of organisms living in different environments provides important behavioural context for predicting how animals will respond to environmental change. published

The ice formed by cold-season rainfall or rain on snow (ROS) has striking impacts on the economy and ecology of Alaska. An understanding of the atmospheric drivers of ROS events is required to better predict them and plan for environmental change. The spatially/temporally sparse network of stations in Alaska makes studying such events challenging, and gridded reanalysis or remote sensing products are necessary to fill the gaps. Recently developed dynamically downscaled climate data provide a new suite of high-resolution variables for investigating historical and projected ROS events across all of Alaska from 1979 to 2100. The dynamically downscaled reanalysis data of ERA-Interim replicated the seasonal patterns of ROS events but tended to produce more rain events than in station observations. However, dynamical downscaling reduced the bias toward more rain events in the coarse reanalysis. ROS occurred most frequently over southwestern and southern coastal regions. Extreme events with the heaviest rainfall generally coincided with anomalous high pressure centered to the south/southeast of the locations receiving the event and warm-air advection from the resulting southwesterly wind flow. ROS events were projected to increase in frequency overall and for extremes across most of the region but were expected to decline over southwestern/southern Alaska. Increases in frequency were projected as a result of more frequent winter rainfall, but the number of ROS events may ultimately decline in some areas as a result of temperatures rising above the freezing threshold. These projected changes in ROS can significantly affect wildlife, vegetation, and human activities across the Alaska landscape.

Lake size has declined on breeding grounds for international populations of waterfowl. Our objectives were to (1) model the relationship between waterfowl species richness and lake size; (2) use the model and trends in lake size to project historical, contemporary, and future richness at 2500+ lakes; (3) evaluate mechanisms for the species–area relationship (SAR); and (4) identify species most vulnerable to shrinking lakes. Monte Carlo simulations of the richness model were used to generate projections. Correlations between richness and both lake size and habitat diversity were compared to identify mechanisms for the SAR. Patterns of nestedness were used to identify vulnerable species. Species richness was greatest at lakes that were larger, closer to rivers, had more wetlands along their perimeters and were within 5 km of a large lake. Average richness per lake was projected to decline by 11 % from 1986 to 2050 but was heterogeneous across sub-regions and lakes. Richness in sub-regions with species-rich lakes was projected to remain stable, while richness in the sub-region with species-poor lakes was projected to decline. Lake size had a greater effect on richness than did habitat diversity, suggesting that large lakes have more species because they provide more habitat but not more habitat types. The vulnerability of species to shrinking lakes was related to species rarity rather than foraging guild. Our maps of projected changes in species richness and rank-ordered list of species most vulnerable to shrinking lakes can be used to identify targets for conservation or monitoring.

Climate-induced shifts in plant phenology may adversely affect animals that cannot or do not shift the timing of their reproductive cycle. The realized effect of potential trophic "mismatches" between a consumer and its food varies with the degree to which species rely on dietary income and stored capital. Large Arctic herbivores rely heavily on maternal capital to reproduce and give birth near the onset of the growing season but are they vulnerable to trophic mismatch? We evaluated the long-term changes in the temperatures and characteristics of the growing seasons (1970-2013), and compared growing conditions and dynamics of forage quality for caribou at peak parturition, peak lactation, and peak forage biomass, and plant senescence between two distinct time periods over 36 years (1977 and 2011-13). Despite advanced thaw dates (7-12 days earlier), increased growing season lengths (15-21 days longer), and consistent parturition dates, we found no decline in forage quality and therefore no evidence within this dataset for a trophic mismatch at peak parturition or peak lactation from 1977 to 2011-13. In Arctic ungulates that use stored capital for reproduction, reproductive demands are largely met by body stores deposited in the previous summer and autumn, which reduces potential adverse effects of any mismatch between food availability and timing of parturition. Climate-induced effects on forages growing in the summer and autumn ranges, however, do correspond with the demands of female caribou and their offspring to gain mass for the next reproductive cycle and winter. Therefore, we suggest the window of time to examine the match-mismatch framework in Arctic ungulates is not at parturition but in late summer-autumn, where the multiplier effects of small changes in forage quality are amplified by forage abundance, peak forage intake, and resultant mass gains in mother-offspring pairs.

The prairie pothole region (PPR) in the north-central United States and south-central Canada constitutes the most important waterfowl breeding area in North America. Projected long-term changes in precipitation and temperature may alter the drivers of waterfowl abundance: wetland availability and emergent vegetation cover. Previous studies have focused on isolated wetland dynamics, but the implications of changing precipitation on managed, river-fed wetlands have not been addressed. Using a structured decision making (SDM) approach, we derived optimal water management actions for 20 years at four river-fed National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in North and South Dakota under contrasting increasing/decreasing (+/−0.4 %/year) inflow scenarios derived from empirical trends. Refuge pool depth is manipulated by control structures. Optimal management involves setting control structure heights that have the highest probability of providing a desired mix of waterfowl habitat, given refuge capacities and inflows. We found optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge were essentially the same under increasing and decreasing inflow trends of 0.4 %/year over the next 20 years. Results suggest managed pools in the NWRs receive large inflows relative to their capacities. Hence, water availability does not constrain management; pool bathymetry and management tactics can be greater constraints on attaining management objectives than climate-mediated inflow. We present time-dependent optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge, which are resilient to the non-stationary precipitation scenarios we examined. Managers can use this information to provide a desired mixture of wildlife habitats, and to re-assess management objectives in reserves where pool bathymetry prevents attaining the currently stated objectives.

Earthworms dominate invertebrate biomass in many non-acidic terrestrial ecosystems and represent key detritivores. Anecic earthworms live in the soil but primarily feed on soil surface litter. Recent studies indicate that predation of seeds and seedlings may also contribute to earthworm nutrition. However, the biological significance of this behavior is unknown. Here, we present to our knowledge the first photographic and video evidence that the anecic earthworm species Lumbricus terrestris L. attacks living plants and damages leaves still attached to plants. This behavior could be observed repeatedly and in different locations, indicating that it may be a common process. Though based on uncontrolled observations and in situations of low litter availability, this herbivore behavior suggests that the role of earthworms within ecosystems should not be restricted to litter burial and decomposition, but should include aboveground herbivory. Our observations do not allow us to determine with certainty if the earthworms directly fed on fresh plant material or – more likely – transported it to its permanent burrows to facilitate microbial decay. We propose that this behavior and its implications for the composition and functioning of plant communities merits further scientific attention. For instance, given the detrimental effects of some common molluscicides on earthworm performance, assumed mollusk effects on plant growth and seedling survival reported in previous studies could be – at least in part – due to the action of anecic earthworms. Future studies should investigate the biological significance and the context-dependency of this behavior.

Over the past 50 years, the number and size of high-latitude lakes have decreased throughout many regions; however, individual lake trends have been variable in direction and magnitude. This spatial heterogeneity in lake change makes statistical detection of temporal trends challenging, particularly in small analysis areas where weak trends are difficult to separate from inter- and intra-annual variability. Factors affecting trend detection include inherent variability, trend magnitude, and sample size. In this paper, we investigated how the statistical power to detect average linear trends in lake size of 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 %/year was affected by the size of the analysis area and the number of years of monitoring in National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska. We estimated power for large (930–4,560 sq km) study areas within refuges and for 2.6, 12.9, and 25.9 sq km cells nested within study areas over temporal extents of 4–50 years. We found that: (1) trends in study areas could be detected within 5–15 years, (2) trends smaller than 2.0 %/year would take >50 years to detect in cells within study areas, and (3) there was substantial spatial variation in the time required to detect change among cells. Power was particularly low in the smallest cells which typically had the fewest lakes. Because small but ecologically meaningful trends may take decades to detect, early establishment of long-term monitoring will enhance power to detect change. Our results have broad applicability and our method is useful for any study involving change detection among variable spatial and temporal extents.

During the past � 50 years, the number and area of lakes have declined in several regions in boreal forests. However, there has been substantial finer-scale heterogeneity; some lakes decreased in area, some showed no trend, and others increased. The objective of this study was to identify the primary mechanisms underlying heterogeneous trends in closed-basin lake area. Eight lake characteristics (d 18 O, electrical conductivity, surface:volum ei ndex, bank slope, fl oating mat width, peat depth, thaw depth at shoreline, and thaw depth at the forest boundary) were compared for 15 lake pairs in Alaskan boreal forest where one lake had decreased in area since � 1950, and the other had not. Mean differences in characteristics between paired lakes were used to identify the most likely of nine mechanistic scenarios that combined three potential mechanisms for decreasing lake area (talik drainage, surface water evaporation, and terrestrialization) with three potential mechanisms for nondecreasing lake area (subpermafrost groundwater recharge through an open talik, stable permafrost, and thermokarst). Ap rioriexpectations of the direction of mean differences between decreasing and nondecreasing paired lakes were generated for each scenario. Decreasing lakes had significantly greater electrical conductivity, greater surface:volume indices, shallower bank slopes, wider floating mats, greater peat depths, and shallower thaw depths at the forest boundary. These results indicated that the most likely scenario was terrestrialization as the mechanism for lake area reduction combined with thermokarst as the mechanism for nondecreasing lake area. Terrestrialization and thermokarst may have been enhanced by recent warming which has both accelerated permafrost thawing and lengthened the growing season, thereby increasing plant growth,floating mat encroachment, transpiration rates, and the accumulation of organic matter in lake basins. The transition to peatlands associated with terrestrialization may provide a transient increase in carbon storage enhancing the role of northern ecosystems as major stores of global carbon.

Distribution theory predicts that for two species living in sympatry, the subordinate species would be constrained from using the most suitable resources (e.g., habitat), resulting in its use of less suitable habitat and spatial segregation between species. We used negative binomial generalized linear mixed models with fixed effects to estimate seasonal population-level resource selection at two spatial resolutions for female brown bears (Ursus arctos) and female American black bears (U. americanus) in southcentral Alaska during May–September 2000. Black bears selected areas occupied by brown bears during spring which may be related to spatially restricted (i.e., restricted to low elevations) but dispersed or patchy availability of food. In contrast, black bears avoided areas occupied by brown bears during summer. Brown bears selected areas near salmon streams during summer, presumably to access spawning salmon. Use of areas with high berry production by black bears during summer appeared in response to avoidance of areas containing brown bears. Berries likely provided black bears a less nutritious, but adequate food source. We suggest that during summer, black bears were displaced by brown bears, which supports distribution theory in that black bears appeared to be partially constrained from areas containing salmon, resulting in their use of areas containing less nutritious forage. Spatial segregation of brown and American black bears apparently occurs when high-quality resources are spatially restricted and alternate resources are available to the subordinate species. This and previous work suggest that individual interactions between species can result in seasonal population-level responses.

Background National health care quality measures suggest that racial and ethnic minority populations receive inferior quality of care compared to whites across many health services. As the largest insurer of low-income and minority populations in the United States, Medicaid has an important opportunity to identify and address health care disparities. Methods Using 2006 Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS) measures developed by the National Committee for Quality Assurance (NCQA), we examined quality of care for cancer screening, diabetes, and asthma among all eligible non-dual North Carolina Medicaid recipients by race and ethnicity. Results In comparison to non-Latino whites, non-Latino African Americans had higher rates of screening for breast cancer (40.7% vs. 36.7%), cervical cancer (60.5% vs. 54.6%), and colorectal cancer (25.5% vs. 20.6%) and lower rates of LDL testing among people with diabetes (61.8% vs. 65.7%) and appropriate asthma medication use (88.7% vs. 97.0%). A1C testing and retinal eye exam rates among people with diabetes were similar. Smaller racial/ethnic minority groups had favorable quality indicators across most measures. Limitations Comparability of findings to national population-based quality measures and other health plan HEDIS measures is limited by lack of case-mix adjustment. Conclusions For the health services examined, we did not find evidence of large racial and ethnic disparities in quality of care within the North Carolina Medicaid program. There is substantial room for improvement, however, in cancer screening and preventive care for Medicaid recipients as a whole.

Modeling the probability of use of land units characterized by discrete and continuous measures, we present a Bayesian random-effects model to assess resource selection. This model provides simultaneous estimation of both individual- and population-level selection. Deviance information criterion (DIC), a Bayesian alternative to AIC that is sample-size specific, is used for model selection. Aerial radiolocation data from 76 adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and calf pairs during 1 year on an Arctic coastal plain calving ground were used to illustrate models and assess population-level selection of landscape attributes, as well as individual heterogeneity of selection. Landscape attributes included elevation, NDVI (a measure of forage greenness), and land cover-type classification. Results from the first of a 2-stage model-selection procedure indicated that there is substantial heterogeneity among cow-calf pairs with respect to selection of the landscape attributes. In the second stage, selection of models with heterogeneity included indicated that at the population-level, NDVI and land cover class were significant attributes for selection of different landscapes by pairs on the calving ground. Population-level selection coefficients indicate that the pairs generally select landscapes with higher levels of NDVI, but the relationship is quadratic. The highest rate of selection occurs at values of NDVI less than the maximum observed. Results for land cover-class selections coefficients indicate that wet sedge, moist sedge, herbaceous tussock tundra, and shrub tussock tundra are selected at approximately the same rate, while alpine and sparsely vegetated landscapes are selected at a lower rate. Furthermore, the variability in selection by individual caribou for moist sedge and sparsely vegetated landscapes is large relative to the variability in selection of other land cover types. The example analysis illustrates that, while sometimes computationally intense, a Bayesian hierarchical discrete-choice model for resource selection can provide managers with 2 components of population-level inference: average population selection and variability of selection. Both components are necessary to make sound management decisions based on animal selection.

The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are chang- ing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates con- vincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and pro- cesses influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show

How will climate change affect the sustainability of Arctic villages over the next 40 years? This question motivated a collaboration of 23 researchers and four Arctic communities (Old Crow, Yukon Territory, Canada; Aklavik, Northwest Territories, Canada; Fort McPherson, Northwest Territories, Canada; and Arctic Village, Alaska, USA) in or near the range of the Porcupine Caribou Herd. We drew on existing research and local knowledge to examine potential effects of climate change, petroleum development, tourism, and government spending cutbacks on the sustainability of four Arctic villages. We used data across eight disciplines to develop an Arctic Community Synthesis Model and a Web-based, interactive Possible Futures Model. Results suggested that climate warming will increase vegetation biomass within the herd’s summer range. However, despite forage increasing, the herd was projected as likely to decline with a warming climate because of increased insect harassment in the summer and potentially greater winter snow depths. There was a strong negative correlation between hypothetical, development-induced displacement of cows and calves from utilized calving grounds and calf survival during June. The results suggested that climate warming coupled with petroleum development would cause a decline in caribou harvest by local communities. Because the Synthesis Model inherits uncertainties associated with each component model, sensitivity analysis is required. Scientists and stakeholders agreed that (1) although simulation models are incomplete abstractions of the real world, they helped bring scientific and community knowledge together, and (2) relationships established across disciplines and between scientists and communities were a valuable outcome of the study. Additional project materials, including the Web-based Possible Futures Model, are available at http://www.taiga.net/sustain.

The objective of this paper is to review research conducted over the past decade on the application of multi-temporal remote sensing for monitoring changes of Arctic tundra lands. Emphasis is placed on results from the National Science Foundation Land–Air–Ice Interactions (LAII) program and on optical remote sensing techniques. Case studies demonstrate that ground-level sensors on stationary or moving track platforms and wide-swath imaging sensors on polar orbiting satellites are particularly useful for capturing optical remote sensing data at sufficient frequency to study tundra vegetation dynamics and changes for the cloud prone Arctic. Less frequent imaging with high spatial resolution instruments on aircraft and lower orbiting satellites enable more detailed analyses of land cover change and calibration/validation of coarser resolution observations. The strongest signals of ecosystem change detected thus far appear to correspond to expansion of tundra shrubs and changes in the amount and extent of thaw lakes and ponds. Changes in shrub cover and extent have been documented by modern repeat imaging that matches archived historical aerial photography. NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) time series provide a 20-year

Petroleum and mineral exploration and extraction, hydroelectric development, atmospheric transport of contaminants, timber harvesting and tourism are increasing worldwide, especially in the Arctic. This development may adversely affect populations of reindeer/caribou (Rangifer tarandus) which are the basis of subsistence economies for northern indigenous peoples. Our purpose is to present a survey of the literature that has investigated the response of reindeer/caribou to human activities. Individuals and groups of reindeer/caribou: 1) move away from point sources of disturbance; 2) increase activity and energy expenditure near disturbance; 3) delay crossing or fail to cross linear structures; 4) shift away from areas of extensive and intensive development; and 5) are killed by collisions with vehicles and by hunting along roads. Cows and calves during the calving season are the most easily disturbed group. Bulls in general and all reindeer/caribou during insect harassment are least likely to avoid development areas. Estimation of the proportion of a population that is exposed to disturbance and the implications of this exposure to annual energy budgets, survival and productivity of reindeer/caribou has received little attention. Future advances in understanding the implications of human disturbance to reindeer/caribou will require cumulative effects assessment at annual, population and regional scales. Although some level of cumulative effect is likely, clear separation of cumulative effects of development from natural variation in caribou habitat use and demography will be difficult.

The importance of migratory caribou (Rangifer tarandus) to northerners, the increasing pressure to extract non-living resources, and predicted global climate change have led researchers, managers and resource users alike to focus on how to improve our knowledge of this unique northern ungulate. Unprecedented threats to caribou sustainability, along with the increasingly acknowledged value of indigenous hunters’contribution to caribou research, pose the additional challenge to innovate research methods that accommodate differing cultural perspectives and facilitate communication among groups. This paper surveys the state of scientific knowledge of the eleven major northern mainland herds of North America. We recommend an approach to improve our working knowledge of barren-ground caribou in order to assess better future impacts. The transfer of knowledge gained from years of research and indigenous experience on many aspects of caribou ecology should be evaluated and, where applicable, transferred to herds with more modest databases. The establishment of a North American Caribou Monitoring and Assessment System, based on a synthesis of local knowledge and research-based science, is recommended as a tool for improved communication and collective learning.

We use the phylogenetically based statistical method of independent contrasts to reanalyze the Wolf et al., 1996 translocation data set for 181 programs involving 17 mammalian and 28 avian species. Although still novel in conservation and wildlife biology, the incorporation of phylogenetic information into analyses of interspecific comparative data is widely accepted and routinely used in several fields. To facilitate application of independent contrasts, we converted the dichotomous (success/failure) dependent variable ( Wolf et al., 1996 , Griffith et al., 1989 . Translocations as a species conservation tool: status and strategy. Science 245, 477–480) into a more descriptive, continuous variable with the incorporation of persistence of the translocated population beyond the last release year, relative to the species' longevity. For comparison, we present three models: nonphylogenetic multiple logistic regression with the dichotomous dependent variable (the method used by Wolf et al. 1996 and Griffith et al. 1989 ), nonphylogenetic multiple regression with the continuous dependent variable, and multiple regression using phylogenetically independent contrasts with the continuous dependent variable. Results of the phylogenetically based multiple regression analysis indicate statistical significance of three independent variables: habitat quality of the release area, range of the release site relative to the historical distribution of the translocated species, and number of individuals released. Evidence that omnivorous species are more successful than either herbivores or carnivores is also presented. The results of our reanalysis support several of the more important conclusions of the Wolf et al. (1996) and Griffith et al. (1989) studies and increase our confidence that the foregoing variables should be considered carefully when designing a translocation program. However, the phylogenetically based analysis does not support either the Wolf et al. (1996) or Griffith et al. (1989) findings with respect to the statistical significance of taxonomic class (bird vs mammal) and status (game vs threatened, endangered, or sensitive), or the Griffith et al. (1989) findings with respect to the significance of reproductive potential of the species and program length.

Effects of conifer release with glyphosate on summer forage availability for large herbivores in northern forests have received relatively little study. We determined effects of glyphosate treatment of clearcuts on abundance of summer foods for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) at 1 and 7-10 years posttreatment. We measured the abundance (percent cover in a 0- to 1.8-m height stratum) of five forage classes for deer (leaves of deciduous trees, leaves of deciduous shrubs, forbs, grasses, ferns) on 12 clearcuts (six treated, six untreated) to determine 1-year effects and on 10 clearcuts (five treated, five untreated) to determine 7- to 10-year effects. Abundance of leaves of deciduous trees was greater on untreated sites (38 versus 11%) at 1 year posttreatment, but the difference was less (18 versus 12%) at 7-10 years posttreatment (age ◊ treatment interaction, P = 0.005). Leaves of deciduous shrubs exhibited a similar pattern. Abundance of forbs was similar (13-14%) at 1 year posttreatment but greater on treated sites (29 versus 15%) at 7-10 years posttreatment (P = 0.03). Grasses and ferns were less abundant than other forage classes. Overall, glyphosate application initially decreased the abundance of leaves of deciduous trees and shrubs used as food in summer, but the longer term positive effects on forb abundance may result in little net change in overall habitat value. Resume : Les effets du degagement des coniferes a l'aide du glyphosate sur la disponibilite de nourriture pour les grands herbivores des forets nordiques ont ete relativement peu etudies. Nous avons determine les effets du traitement de parterres de coupe au glyphosate sur l'abondance de nourriture estivale pour le cerf de Virginie ( Odocoileus virginianus) 1 an et 7-10 ans apres le traitement. Nous avons mesure l'abondance (pourcentage de recouvrement dans une strate de hauteur de 0 a 1,8 m) de cinq classes de nourriture pour le cerf (feuilles d'arbres decidus, feuilles d'arbustes decidus, plantes herbacees dicotyledones, graminees et fougeres) dans 12 parterres de coupe (6 traites, 6 non traites) afin de determiner les effets apres 1 an et dans 10 parterres de coupe (5 traites, 5 non traites) afin de determiner les effets apres 7-10 ans. L'abondance des feuilles d'arbres decidus etait plus grande dans les sites non traites (38 versus 11%) apres 1 an, mais la difference etait moindre apres 7-10 ans (18 versus 12%; interaction âge ◊ traitement, P = 0,005). Les feuilles d'arbustes decidus presentaient un patron similaire. L'abondance des plantes herbacees dicotyledones etait similaire (13-14%) apres 1 an, mais plus grande dans les sites traites (29 versus 15%) apres 7-10 ans (P = 0,03). Les graminees et les fougeres etaient moins abondantes que les autres types de nourriture. En general, l'application de glyphosate a diminue l'abondance initiale des feuilles d'arbres et arbustes decidus utilisees comme nourriture estivale, mais le changement net dans la valeur generale de l'habitat risque d'etre negligeable etant donne les effets positifs a long terme sur l'abondance des plantes herbacees dicotyledones.

Translocations of rare and endangered species face significant valuational and organizational challenges; however, these dimensions are rarely discussed in the translocation literature. We employed a 98 question sample mail survey to assess these variables and received 131 responses from 110 individuals in 10 nations. In contrast to the literature which suggests that most translocations fail, a large proportion of the programs surveyed were perceived as being successful and most respondents identified relatively few valuational or organizational problems or difficulties in their translocation programs. While perceived local support was correlated with perceived translocation success, the presence of public relations/education programs was not. Therefore, simply having a public relations/education program is no guarantee that public support will increase or that a translocation will be more successful. Organizationally, translocations which established special groups or teams were perceived as increasing innovation, but not in improving program organization, nor decreasing conflict. Further, the presence of special groups or teams was not correlated with translocation success. Finally, translocations with the objective of augmenting populations were perceived to suffer from more problems, including greater local opposition, poorer public understanding, less money, and poorer leadership, than were translocations aimed at establishing or re-establishing populations. The results illustrated the difficulty of analyzing valuational and organizational aspects of conservation programs using questionnaires.

"Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the regional social-ecological system. Food security for Arctic indigenous peoples harvesting barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) depends on movement patterns of migratory herds. Quantitative assessments of physical, ecological, and social effects on caribou distribution have proven difficult because of the significant interannual variability in seasonal caribou movement patterns. We developed and evaluated a modeling approach for simulating the distribution of a migratory herd throughout its annual cycle over a multiyear period. Beginning with spatial and temporal scales developed in previous studies of the Porcupine Caribou Herd of Canada and Alaska, we used satellite collar locations to compute and analyze season-by-season probabilities of movement of animals between habitat zones under two alternative weather conditions for each season. We then built a set of transition matrices from these movement probabilities, and simulated the sequence of movements across the landscape as a Markov process driven by externally imposed seasonal weather states. Statistical tests showed that the predicted distributions of caribou were consistent with observed distributions, and significantly correlated with subsistence harvest levels for three user communities. Our approach could be applied to other caribou herds and could be adapted for simulating the distribution of other ungulates and species with similarly large interannual variability in the use of their range."

Caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) calf:cow ratios (CCR) computed from composition counts obtained on arctic calving grounds are biased estimators of net calf production (NCP, the product of parturition rate and early calf survival) for sexually-mature females. Sexually-immature 2-year-old females, which are indistinguishable from sexually-mature females without calves, are included in the denominator, thereby biasing the calculated ratio low. This underestimate increases with the proportion of 2-year-old females in the population. We estimated the magnitude of this error with deterministic simulations under three scenarios of calf and yearling annual survival (respectively: low, 60 and 70%; medium, 70 and 80%; high, 80 and 90%) for five levels of unbiased NCP: 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100%. We assumed a survival rate of 90% for both 2-year-old and mature females. For each NCP, we computed numbers of 2-year-old females surviving annually and increased the denominator of CCR accordingly. We then calculated a series of hypothetical “observed” CCRs, which stabilized during the last 6 years of the simulations, and documented the degree to which each 6-year mean CCR differed from the corresponding NCP. For the three calf and yearling survival scenarios, proportional underestimates of NCP by CCR ranged 0.046–0.156, 0.058–0.187, and 0.071–0.216, respectively. Unfortunately, because parturition and survival rates are typically variable (i.e., age distribution is unstable), the magnitude of the error is not predictable without substantial supporting information. We recommend maintaining a sufficient sample of known-age radiocollared females in each herd and implementing a regular relocation schedule during the calving period to obtain unbiased estimates of both parturition rate and NCP.

Climate-related declines in lake area have been identified across circumpolar regions and have been characterized by substantial spatial heterogeneity. An improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying lake area trends is necessary to predict where change is most likely to occur and to identify implications for high latitude reservoirs of carbon. Here, using a population of ca. 2300 lakes with statistically significant increasing and decreasing lake area trends spanning longitudinal and latitudinal gradients of ca. 1000 km in Alaska, we present evidence for a mechanism of lake area decline that involves the loss of surface water to groundwater systems. We show that lakes with significant declines in lake area were more likely to be located: (1) in burned areas; (2) on coarser, well-drained soils; and (3) farther from rivers compared to lakes that were increasing. These results indicate that postfire processes such as permafrost degradation, which also results from a warming climate, may promote lake drainage, particularly in coarse-textured soils and farther from rivers where overland flooding is less likely and downslope flow paths and negative hydraulic gradients between surface water and groundwater systems are more common. Movement of surface water to groundwater systems may lead to a deepening of subsurface flow paths and longer hydraulic residence time which has been linked to increased soil respiration and CO2 release to the atmosphere. By quantifying relationships between statewide coarse resolution maps of landscape characteristics and spatially heterogeneous responses of lakes to environmental change, we provide a means to identify at-risk lakes and landscapes and plan for a changing climate.

State wildlife conservation programs provide a strong foundation for biodiversity conservation in the United States, building on state wildlife action plans. However, states may miss the species that are at the most risk at rangewide scales, and threats such as novel diseases and climate change increasingly act at regional and national levels. Regional collaborations among states and their partners have had impressive successes, and several federal programs now incorporate state priorities. However, regional collaborations are uneven across the country, and no national counterpart exists to support efforts at that scale. A national conservation-support program could fill this gap and could work across the conservation community to identify large-scale conservation needs and support efforts to meet them. By providing important information-sharing and capacity-building services, such a program would advance collaborative conservation among the states and their partners, thus increasing both the effectiveness and the efficiency of conservation in the United States. © 2012 by American Institute of Biological Sciences. All rights reserved.

We synthesize findings from cooperative research on effects of petroleum development on caribou ( Rangifer tarandus granti ) of the Central Arctic Herd (CAH). The CAH increased from about 6000 animals in 1978 to 23000 in 1992, declined to 18 000 by 1995, and again increased to 27 000 by 2000. Net calf production was consistent with changes in herd size. In the Kuparuk Development Area (KDA), west of Prudhoe Bay, abundance of calving caribou was less than expected within 4 km of roads and declined exponentially with road density. With increasing infrastructure, high-density calving shifted from the KDA to inland areas with lower forage biomass. During July and early August, caribou were relatively unsuccessful in crossing road/pipeline corridors in the KDA, particularly when in large, insect-harassed aggregations; and both abundance and movements of females were lower in the oil field complex at Prudhoe Bay than in other areas along the Arctic coast. Female caribou exposed to petroleum development west of the Sagavanirktok River may have consumed less forage during the calving period and experienced lower energy balance during the midsummer insect season than those under disturbance-free conditions east of the river. The probable consequences were poorer body condition at breeding and lower parturition rates for western females than for eastern females (e.g., 1988–94: 64% vs. 83% parturient, respectively; p = 0.003), which depressed the productivity of the herd. Assessments of cumulative effects of petroleum development on caribou must incorporate the complex interactions with a variable natural environment.

Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

In this study, we develop a method to analyse the relationships between seasonal caribou distribution and climate, to estimate how climatic conditions affect interactions between humans and caribou, and ultimately to predict patterns of distribution relative to climate change. Satellite locations for the Porcupine (Rangifer tarandus granti) and Bathurst (R. t. groenlandicus) caribou herds were analysed for eight ecologically-defined seasons. For each season, two levels of a key environmental factor influencing caribou distribution were identified, as well as the best climate data available to indicate the factor's annual state. Satellite locations were grouped according to the relevant combination of season and environmental factor. Caribou distributions were compared for opposing environmental factors; this comparison was undertaken relative to hunting access for the Porcupine Herd and relative to exposure to mining activity for the Bathurst Herd. Expected climate trends suggest an overall increase in access to Porcupine caribou for Aklavik (NWT) hunters during the winter and rut seasons, for Venetie (Alaska) hunters during midsummer and fall migration and for Arctic Village (Alaska) during midsummer. Arctic Village may experience reduced availability with early snowfalls in the fall, but we expect there to be little directional shift in the spring migration patterns. For the Bathurst Herd, we expect that fewer caribou would be exposed to the mines during the winter, while more caribou would be exposed to the combined Ekati and Diavik mining zone in the early summer and to the Lupin-Jericho mining zone during the fall migration. If changes in climate cause an increased presence of caribou in the mining sites, monitoring and mitigation measures may need to be intensified.

The herbicide glyphosate is widely used in northern coniferous forests of the United States and Canada to promote conifer dominance on clearcut sites by suppressing regeneration of deciduous species. We determined effects of glyphosate treatment of regenerating clearcuts on (1) browse availability (total biomass, by species, and proportion with high digestible energy [DE] content), (2) browse use, and (3) diet quality of moose (Alces alces) in winter in Maine during 2 periods: 1-2 and 7-11 years posttreatment. We measured browse availability and use and collected browse samples for nutritional analyses on 12 clearcuts in January-March 1991 before aerial treatment with glyphosate of 6 of these clearcuts in August 1991. We conducted posttreatment sampling of treated and untreated clearcuts during January-March 1992 and 1993. We also sampled 14 clearcuts that had been treated with glyphosate 7-11 years earlier and 5 untreated clearcuts of similar age in January-March 1992 or 1993. Available biomass (kg/ha) of deciduous browse decreased (P = 0.001) 70% on treated clearcuts relative to untreated clearcuts from pretreatment to year 2, but was not affected (P = 0.29) at 7-11 years posttreatment. Available browse from red maple (Acer rubrum) and paper birch (Betula papyrifera) appeared to decrease less than pin cherry (Prunus pensylvanica) in years 1-2 suggesting that species composition on sites may influence the magnitude of effects on total browse availability. The proportion of deciduous browse biomass with a relatively high DE content (1.8 kcal/g) was not affected (P = 0.37) by treatment at 1-2 years, but was greater (P = 0.047) on treated than untreated clearcuts at 7-11 years posttreatment. Biomass and percent of available deciduous browse eaten by moose were not affected (P > 0.1) by glyphosate in years 1-2, but were 4-5 times greater (P 0.1) by treatment in either time period. Initial reductions in browse availability may decrease the suitability of clearcuts for foraging by moose, but this effect would decrease over the next 5-9 years because browse availability decreases naturally on untreated sites. We concluded that glyphosate did not have important effects on diet quality. Heavy browsing in older treated clearcuts suggests that moose may be attracted to these sites, but this behavior was not directly related to browse availability or nutrition. We discuss management options for minimizing effects of glyphosate treatment on moose habitat.

Aerial treatment of naturally regenerating clearcuts with the herbicide glyphosate initially reduces the availability of deciduous browse, but may subsequently improve bedding cover for moose (Alces alces). However, the potential effects of these vegetative changes on use of clearcuts by moose has received little study. We studied effects of glyphosate treatment of clearcuts in Maine on (1) use of clearcuts by moose and (2) conifer cover during 2 periods, 1-2 and 7-11 years posttreatment. We made counts of moose tracks, beds, and pellet groups on transects in treated and untreated clearcuts in January-March 1992 and 1993 and measured conifer densities in January-March 1991-93. At 1 and 2 years posttreatment, tracks of foraging moose were 57 and 75% less abundant on treated than untreated clearcuts (P = 0.013). Counts of moose beds, total tracks, and pellet groups exhibited similar patterns as tracks of foraging moose but did not differ (P > 0.1) between treatments. At 7-11 years posttreatment, tracks of foraging moose (P = 0.05) and moose beds (P = 0.06) were greater on treated than untreated clearcuts. Conifer densities at 1-2 years posttreatment were not affected (P > 0.1) by treatment, but conifers 2.0-2.9 m tall were 2 times more abundant (P < 0.1) on treated than untreated clearcuts at 7-11 years posttreatment. Less foraging activity at 1-2 years posttreatment appeared to be the result of reduced browse availability because conifer cover for bedding was similar on treated and untreated clearcuts. We hypothesized that greater counts of tracks of foraging moose on older treated clearcuts was due to increased foraging activity on sites with more abundant conifer cover.

Estimates of the relative effects of demographic parameters on population rates of change, and of the level of natural variation in these parameters, are necessary to address potential effects of perturbations on populations. We used a stochastic model, based on survival and reproduction estimates of the Porcupine Caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) Herd (PCH), during 1983-89 and 1989-92 to obtain distributions potential population rates of change (r). The distribution of r produced by 1,000 trajectories of our simulation model (1983-89, r = 0.013; 1989-92, r = 0.003) encompassed the rate of increase calculated from an independent series of photo-survey data over the same years (1983-89, r = 0.048; 1989-92, r = −0.035). Changes in adult female survival had the largest effect on r, followed by changes in calf survival. We hypothesized that petroleum development on calving grounds, or changes in calving and post-calving habitats due to global climate change, would affect model input parameters. A decline in annual adult female survival from 0.871 to 0.847, or a decline in annual calf survival from 0.518 to 0.472, would be sufficient to cause a declining population, if all other input estimates remained the same. We then used these lower survival rates, in conjunction with our estimated amount of among-year variation, to determine a range of resulting population trajectories. Stochastic models can be used to better understand dynamics of populations, optimize sampling investment, and evaluate potential effects of various factors on population growth

Surveys of recent (1973 to 1986) intentional releases of native birds and mammals to the wild in Australia, Canada, Hawaii, New Zealand, and the United States were conducted to document current activities, identify factors associated with success, and suggest guidelines for enhancing future work. Nearly 700 translocations were conducted each year. Native game species constituted 90 percent of translocations and were more successful (86 percent) than were translocations of threatened, endangered, or sensitive species (46 percent). Knowledge of habitat quality, location of release area within the species range, number of animals released, program length, and reproductive traits allowed correct classification of 81 percent of observed translocations as successful or not.

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