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Modeling Sustainability of Arctic Communities: An Interdisciplinary Collaboration of Researchers and Local Knowledge Holders
- Source :
- Ecosystems. 7:815-828
- Publication Year :
- 2004
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2004.
-
Abstract
- How will climate change affect the sustainability of Arctic villages over the next 40 years? This question motivated a collaboration of 23 researchers and four Arctic communities (Old Crow, Yukon Territory, Canada; Aklavik, Northwest Territories, Canada; Fort McPherson, Northwest Territories, Canada; and Arctic Village, Alaska, USA) in or near the range of the Porcupine Caribou Herd. We drew on existing research and local knowledge to examine potential effects of climate change, petroleum development, tourism, and government spending cutbacks on the sustainability of four Arctic villages. We used data across eight disciplines to develop an Arctic Community Synthesis Model and a Web-based, interactive Possible Futures Model. Results suggested that climate warming will increase vegetation biomass within the herd’s summer range. However, despite forage increasing, the herd was projected as likely to decline with a warming climate because of increased insect harassment in the summer and potentially greater winter snow depths. There was a strong negative correlation between hypothetical, development-induced displacement of cows and calves from utilized calving grounds and calf survival during June. The results suggested that climate warming coupled with petroleum development would cause a decline in caribou harvest by local communities. Because the Synthesis Model inherits uncertainties associated with each component model, sensitivity analysis is required. Scientists and stakeholders agreed that (1) although simulation models are incomplete abstractions of the real world, they helped bring scientific and community knowledge together, and (2) relationships established across disciplines and between scientists and communities were a valuable outcome of the study. Additional project materials, including the Web-based Possible Futures Model, are available at http://www.taiga.net/sustain.
- Subjects :
- Porcupine caribou
Ecology
biology
business.industry
Global warming
Environmental resource management
Climate change
biology.organism_classification
Geography
Arctic
Effects of global warming
Environmental protection
Sustainability
Environmental Chemistry
Traditional knowledge
business
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Tourism
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 14350629 and 14329840
- Volume :
- 7
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Ecosystems
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........e316c8696ef874c9f0e90d57237fbd24