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1. Department of Error: Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2020) 395(10239) (1779–1801), (S0140673620301148), (10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30114-8))

Author: Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, YA, Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, and Bekele, YA
Abstract: Reiner RC Jr, Hay SI. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2020; 395: 1779–801—In this Article, the author byline has been amended to Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators. This correction has been made to the online version as of June 4, 2020, and the printed version is correct.
Published: 2020

2. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, YA, Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, and Bekele, YA
Abstract: Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrh
Published: 2020

3. Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Author: Wiens, KE, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Johnson, KB, Baumann, MM, Schaeffer, LE, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abegaz, KH, Abejie, AN, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abualhasan, A, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adamu, AA, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmad, S, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Akalu, TY, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, N, Alam, S, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Ali, BA, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, KA, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Anoushiravani, A, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antony, B, Antriyandarti, E, Arabloo, J, Aref, HMA, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Arora, A, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atalay, HT, Athari, SS, Athari, SM, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Azzopardi, PS, Babaee, E, Babalola, TK, Badawi, A, Bairwa, M, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Banoub, JAM, Barac, A, Bärnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Basu, S, Bay, VD, Bayati, M, Baye, E, Bedi, N, Beheshti, M, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, BB, Belayneh, YM, Bell, ML, Wiens, KE, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Johnson, KB, Baumann, MM, Schaeffer, LE, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abegaz, KH, Abejie, AN, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abualhasan, A, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adamu, AA, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmad, S, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Akalu, TY, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, N, Alam, S, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Ali, BA, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, KA, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Anoushiravani, A, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antony, B, Antriyandarti, E, Arabloo, J, Aref, HMA, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Arora, A, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atalay, HT, Athari, SS, Athari, SM, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Azzopardi, PS, Babaee, E, Babalola, TK, Badawi, A, Bairwa, M, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Banoub, JAM, Barac, A, Bärnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Basu, S, Bay, VD, Bayati, M, Baye, E, Bedi, N, Beheshti, M, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, BB, Belayneh, YM, and Bell, ML
Abstract: Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings: While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT covera
Published: 2020

4. Department of Error: Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2020) 395(10239) (1779–1801)

Author: Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, YA, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, YA, and Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
Published: 2020

5. Department of Error.

Author: Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, YA, Reiner, RC, Wiens, KE, Deshpande, A, Baumann, MM, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Troeger, CE, Earl, L, Munro, SB, Abate, D, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, G, Abegaz, KH, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Adhena, BM, Afarideh, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, AE, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, R, Ajumobi, O, Akal, CG, Akalu, TY, Akanda, AS, Alamene, GM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, JR, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Alemu, ZA, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ, Amare, AT, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Andrei, CL, Anegago, MT, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Ashagre, AF, Atalay, HT, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Awoke, N, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayele, AA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bakkannavar, SM, Balakrishnan, S, Bali, AG, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bassat, Q, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, and Bekele, YA
Abstract: Reiner RC Jr, Hay SI. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2020; 395: 1779–801—In this Article, the author byline has been amended to Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators. This correction has been made to the online version as of June 4, 2020, and the printed version is correct.
Published: 2020

6. Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Author: Deshpande, A, Miller-Petrie, MK, Lindstedt, PA, Baumann, MM, Johnson, KB, Blacker, BF, Hay, SI, Reiner, RC, Jr, Haagsma, Juanita, Deshpande, A, Miller-Petrie, MK, Lindstedt, PA, Baumann, MM, Johnson, KB, Blacker, BF, Hay, SI, Reiner, RC, Jr, and Haagsma, Juanita
Published: 2020

7. Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: Troeger, C, Blacker, BF, Khalil, IA, Rao, PC, Cao, S, Zimsen, SRM, Albertson, S, Stanaway, JD, Deshpande, A, Farag, T, Forouzanfar, MH, Abebe, Z, Adetifa, IMO, Adhikari, TB, Akibu, M, Lami, FH, Al-Eyadhy, A, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Amoako, YA, Antonio, CAT, Aremu, O, Asfaw, ET, Asgedom, SW, Atey, TM, Attia, EF, Avokpaho, EFGA, Ayele, HT, Ayuk, TB, Balakrishnan, K, Barac, A, Bassat, Q, Behzadifar, M, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Brauer, M, Brown, A, Camargos, PAM, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Colombara, D, Conti, S, Dadi, AF, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Do, HP, Dubljanin, E, Edessa, D, Elkout, H, Endries, AY, Fijabi, DO, Foreman, KJ, Fullman, N, Garcia-Basteiro, AL, Gessner, BD, Gething, PW, Gupta, R, Gupta, T, Hailu, GB, Hassen, HY, Hedayati, MT, Heidari, M, Hibstu, DT, Horita, N, Ilesanmi, OS, Jakovljevic, MB, Jamal, AA, Kahsay, A, Kasaeian, A, Kassa, DH, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khan, MN, Khang, Y-H, Kim, YJ, Kissoon, N, Knibbs, LD, Kochhar, S, Koul, PA, Kumar, GA, Lodha, R, Razek, HM, Malta, DC, Mathew, JL, Mengistu, DT, Mezgebe, HB, Mohammad, KA, Mohammed, AM, Momeniha, F, Murthy, S, Nguyen, CT, Nielsen, KR, Ningrum, DNA, Nirayo, YL, Oren, E, Ortiz, JR, Mahesh, PA, Postma, MJ, Qorbani, M, Quansah, R, Rai, RK, Rana, SM, Ranabhat, CL, Ray, SE, Rezai, MS, Ruhago, GM, Safiri, S, Salomon, JA, Sartorius, B, Savic, M, Sawhney, M, She, J, Sheikh, A, Shiferaw, MS, Shigematsu, M, Singh, JA, Somayaji, R, Sufiyan, MB, Taffere, GR, Temsah, M-H, Thompson, MJ, Tobe-Gai, R, Topor-Madry, R, Tran, BX, Tran, TT, Tuem, KB, Ukwaja, KN, Vollset, SE, Walson, JL, Weldegebreal, F, Werdecker, A, West, TE, Yonemoto, N, Zaki, MES, Zhou, L, Zodpey, S, Vos, T, Lim, SS, Naghavi, M, Murray, CJL, Mokdad, AH, Hay, SI, Jr, RRC, and Infecti, GBDLR
Subjects: Adult, Aged, 80 and over, Male, Adolescent, Incidence, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology, Biostatistics, Middle Aged, Global Health, Survival Analysis, Young Adult, Cost of Illness, Risk Factors, Child, Preschool, Prevalence, Humans, Female, Topography, Medical, Virus Diseases/epidemiology, Child, Epidemiologic Methods, Bacterial Infections/epidemiology, Aged
Abstract: Background Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages. Methods We used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and healthcare data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location. We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years. We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000–16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016. Findings In 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475–720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749–1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2 145 584–2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1 189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445–1 770 660). Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61·4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45·7–69·6). Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden. Interpretation Our findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults. By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world’s most susceptible populations.
Published: 2019

8. Mortality, Morbidity, and Hospitalisations Due to Influenza Lower Respiratory Tract Infections, 2017: An Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Troeger, C, Blacker, BF, Khalil, IA, Zimsen, SRM, Albertson, SB, Abate, D, Kochhar, Sonali, Hay, I, Reiner, RC, and Public Health
Published: 2019

9. The global burden of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Stanaway, JD, Reiner, RC, Blacker, BF, Goldberg, EM, Khalil, IA, Troeger, CE, Andrews, JR, Bhutta, ZA, Crump, JA, Im, J, Marks, F, Mintz, E, Park, SE, Zaidi, AKM, Abebe, Z, Abejie, AN, Adedeji, IA, Ali, BA, Amare, AT, Atalay, HT, Avokpaho, EFGA, Bacha, U, Barac, A, Bedi, N, Berhane, A, Browne, AJ, Chirinos, JL, Chitheer, A, Dolecek, C, Zaki, MES, Eshrati, B, Foreman, KJ, Gemechu, A, Gupta, R, Hailu, GB, Henok, A, Hibstu, DT, Chi, LH, Ilesanmi, OS, Iyer, VJ, Kahsay, A, Kasaeian, A, Kassa, TD, Khan, EA, Khang, Y-H, El Razek, HMA, Melku, M, Mengistu, DT, Mohammad, KA, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Nachega, JB, Naheed, A, Cuong, TN, Huong, LTN, Long, HN, Nam, BN, Trang, HN, Nirayo, YL, Pangestu, T, Patton, GC, Qorbani, M, Rai, RK, Rana, SM, Ranabhat, CL, Roba, KT, Roberts, NLS, Rubino, S, Safiri, S, Sartorius, B, Sawhney, M, Shiferaw, MS, Smith, DL, Sykes, BL, Bach, XT, Tung, TT, Ukwaja, KN, Giang, TV, Linh, GV, Weldegebreal, F, Yenit, MK, Murray, CJL, Hay, SI, Stanaway, JD, Reiner, RC, Blacker, BF, Goldberg, EM, Khalil, IA, Troeger, CE, Andrews, JR, Bhutta, ZA, Crump, JA, Im, J, Marks, F, Mintz, E, Park, SE, Zaidi, AKM, Abebe, Z, Abejie, AN, Adedeji, IA, Ali, BA, Amare, AT, Atalay, HT, Avokpaho, EFGA, Bacha, U, Barac, A, Bedi, N, Berhane, A, Browne, AJ, Chirinos, JL, Chitheer, A, Dolecek, C, Zaki, MES, Eshrati, B, Foreman, KJ, Gemechu, A, Gupta, R, Hailu, GB, Henok, A, Hibstu, DT, Chi, LH, Ilesanmi, OS, Iyer, VJ, Kahsay, A, Kasaeian, A, Kassa, TD, Khan, EA, Khang, Y-H, El Razek, HMA, Melku, M, Mengistu, DT, Mohammad, KA, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Nachega, JB, Naheed, A, Cuong, TN, Huong, LTN, Long, HN, Nam, BN, Trang, HN, Nirayo, YL, Pangestu, T, Patton, GC, Qorbani, M, Rai, RK, Rana, SM, Ranabhat, CL, Roba, KT, Roberts, NLS, Rubino, S, Safiri, S, Sartorius, B, Sawhney, M, Shiferaw, MS, Smith, DL, Sykes, BL, Bach, XT, Tung, TT, Ukwaja, KN, Giang, TV, Linh, GV, Weldegebreal, F, Yenit, MK, Murray, CJL, and Hay, SI
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Efforts to quantify the global burden of enteric fever are valuable for understanding the health lost and the large-scale spatial distribution of the disease. We present the estimates of typhoid and paratyphoid fever burden from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, and the approach taken to produce them. METHODS: For this systematic analysis we broke down the relative contributions of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers by country, year, and age, and analysed trends in incidence and mortality. We modelled the combined incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers and split these total cases proportionally between typhoid and paratyphoid fevers using aetiological proportion models. We estimated deaths using vital registration data for countries with sufficiently high data completeness and using a natural history approach for other locations. We also estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for typhoid and paratyphoid fevers. FINDINGS: Globally, 14·3 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 12·5-16·3) cases of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers occurred in 2017, a 44·6% (42·2-47·0) decline from 25·9 million (22·0-29·9) in 1990. Age-standardised incidence rates declined by 54·9% (53·4-56·5), from 439·2 (376·7-507·7) per 100 000 person-years in 1990, to 197·8 (172·0-226·2) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. In 2017, Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi caused 76·3% (71·8-80·5) of cases of enteric fever. We estimated a global case fatality of 0·95% (0·54-1·53) in 2017, with higher case fatality estimates among children and older adults, and among those living in lower-income countries. We therefore estimated 135·9 thousand (76·9-218·9) deaths from typhoid and paratyphoid fever globally in 2017, a 41·0% (33·6-48·3) decline from 230·5 thousand (131·2-372·6) in 1990. Overall, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers were responsible for 9·8 million (5·6-15·8) DALYs in 2017, down 43·0% (35·5-50·6) from 17·2 million (9·9-27·8) DALYs in 1990. I
Published: 2019

10. Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoea in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: Troeger, C, Blacker, BF, Khalil, IA, Rao, PC, Cao, S, Zimsen, SRM, Albertson, SB, Stanaway, JD, Deshpande, A, Abebe, Z, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Asgedom, SW, Anteneh, ZA, Antonio, CAT, Aremu, O, Asfaw, ET, Atey, TM, Atique, S, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Ayele, HT, Barac, A, Barreto, ML, Bassat, Q, Belay, SA, Bensenor, IM, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bizuneh, H, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Dadi, AF, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Do, HP, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Edessa, D, Endries, AY, Eshrati, B, Farag, T, Feyissa, GT, Foreman, KJ, Forouzanfar, MH, Fullman, N, Gething, PW, Gishu, MD, Godwin, WW, Gugnani, HC, Gupta, R, Hailu, GB, Hassen, HY, Hibstu, DT, Ilesanmi, OS, Jonas, JB, Kahsay, A, Kang, G, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khan, MA, Khang, Y-H, Kissoon, N, Kochhar, S, Kotloff, KL, Koyanagi, A, Kumar, GA, Magdy Abd El Razek, H, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, DC, Mehata, S, Mendoza, W, Mengistu, DT, Menota, BG, Mezgebe, HB, Mlashu, FW, Murthy, S, Naik, GA, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, TH, Ningrum, DNA, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Paudel, D, Platts-Mills, JA, Qorbani, M, Rafay, A, Rai, RK, Rana, SM, Ranabhat, CL, Rasella, D, Ray, SE, Reis, C, Renzaho, AMN, Rezai, MS, Ruhago, GM, Safiri, S, Salomon, JA, Sanabria, JR, Sartorius, B, Sawhney, M, Sepanlou, SG, Shigematsu, M, Sisay, M, Somayaji, R, Sreeramareddy, CT, Sykes, BL, Taffere, GR, Topor-Madry, R, Tran, BX, Tuem, KB, Ukwaja, KN, Vollset, SE, Walson, JL, Weaver, MR, Weldegwergs, KG, Werdecker, A, Workicho, A, Yenesew, M, Yirsaw, BD, Yonemoto, N, El Sayed Zaki, M, Vos, T, Lim, SS, Naghavi, M, Murray, CJL, Mokdad, AH, Hay, SI, Reiner, RC, and Hay, S
Abstract: Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoea in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies in 1990–2016 and assesses how the burden of diarrhoea has changed in people of all ages Methods We modelled diarrhoea mortality with a Bayesian hierarchical modelling platform that evaluates a wide range of covariates and model types on the basis of vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We modelled diarrhoea incidence with a compartmental meta-regression tool that enforces an association between incidence and prevalence, and relies on scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data. Diarrhoea deaths and episodes were attributed to 13 pathogens by use of a counterfactual population attributable fraction approach. Diarrhoea risk factors are also based on counterfactual estimates of risk exposure and the association between the risk and diarrhoea. Each modelled estimate accounted for uncertainty. Findings In 2016, diarrhoea was the eighth leading cause of death among all ages (1 655 944 deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1 244 073–2 366 552) and the fifth leading cause of death among children younger than 5 years (446 000 deaths, 390 894–504 613). Rotavirus was the leading aetiology for diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years (128 515 deaths, 105 138–155 133) and among all ages (228 047 deaths, 183 526–292 737). Childhood wasting (low weight-for-height score), unsafe water, and unsafe sanitation were the leading risk factors for diarrhoea, responsible for 80·4% (95% UI 68·2–85·0), 72·1% (34·0–91·4), and 56·4% (49·3–62·7) of diarrhoea deaths in children younger than 5 years, respectively. Prevention of wasting in 1762 children (95% UI 1521–2170) could avert one death from diarrhoea. Interpretation Substantial progress has been made globally in reducing the burden of diarrhoeal diseases, driven by decreases in several primary risk factors. However, this reduction has not been equal across locations, and burden among adults older than 70 years requires attention.
Published: 2018

11. Morbidity and mortality due to shigella and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli diarrhoea: the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2016

Author: Khalil, IA, Troeger, C, Blacker, BF, Rao, PC, Brown, A, Atherly, DE, Brewer, TG, Engmann, CM, Houpt, ER, Kang, G, Kotloff, KL, Levine, MM, Luby, SP, Maclennan, CA, Pan, WK, Pavlinac, PB, Platts-Mills, JA, Qadri, F, Riddle, MS, Ryan, ET, Shoultz, DA, Steele, AD, Walson, JL, Sanders, JW, Mokdad, AH, Murray, CJL, Hay, SI, and Reiner, RC
Published: 2018

12. Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Author: Ninuk Hariyani, Benjamin Uzochukwu, Anas M. Saad, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Behzad Karami Matin, Abdallah M. Samy, Roman Topor-Madry, Nelson G.M. Gomes, Afsaneh Arzani, Simin Liu, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis, Anelisa Jaca, Amir Kasaeian, Fereshteh Ansari, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Ali Kabir, Jorge Cano, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Tufa Kolola, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Roghiyeh Faridnia, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Hosni Salem, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Norberto Perico, Sergio I. Prada, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Jai K Das, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Dessalegn Haile, Shivakumar Km Marulasiddaiah M. KMShivakumar, Narayan Prasad, Pranab Chatterjee, Shafiu Mohammed, Ravi Prakash Jha, Xiu Ju George Zhao, Farshad Farzadfar, Ahmad Daryani, Pramesh Raj Ghimire, Abbas Mosapour, Ebrahim Babaee, Rajat Das Gupta, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Daniel Bekele Ketema, Teshome Bekele Elema I, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, Mohamed M. Gad, Eugenio Traini, Milena Santric-Milicevic, Bakhtiar Piroozi, Mohsen Afarideh, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Aisha Elsharkawy, Bárbara Niegia Garcia de Goulart, Soufiane Boufous, Obinna Onwujekwe, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Azeem Majeed, Meghnath Dhimal, Bruno F. Sunguya, Daniel Adane Endalew, Hosein Shabaninejad, Siddhesh Zadey, Takahiro Tabuchi, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Davide Guido, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Yonatal Mesfin Tefera, Hala Elhabashy, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Davide Rasella, Hedayat Abbastabar, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Anthony Masaka, Wagaye Fentahun Chanie, B. Suresh Kumar Shetty, Matiwos Soboka Daba, Tesfaye Yitna Yitna Chichiabellu, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Tomohide Yamada, Alireza Rafiei, Reinhard Busse, Abdullah Al Mamun, Genet Melak Alamene, George C Patton, Andem Effiong, Rushdia Ahmed, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Nizal Sarrafzadegan I, Francesco Saverio Violante, Monika Sawhney, Eyal Oren, Kimberly B. Johnson, Benn Sartorius, Shirin Djalalinia, Mohsen Bayati, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Navid Rabiee, Javad Nazari, Krishna K. Aryal, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Yoshan Moodley, Anh Kim Dang, Mohammad Khazaei, Parvaiz A Koul, Edson Serván-Mori, Foad Abd-Allah, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Nader Jahanmehr, Yuming Guo, Sonia Saxena, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Hagos Degefa de Hidru I, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Richard C. Franklin, Dara K. Mohammad, Naznin Hossain, Oliver J. Brady, Natalie Maria Cormier, Ghulam Mustafa, Samiah Alam, Guoqing Hu, Yousef Khader, Mohsen Mazidi, Hamed Kalani, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Ali Bijani, Getu Debalkie Demissie, Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo, German Martinez, Elias Merdassa Roro, Hamidreza Komaki, Giovanni Damiani, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Reza Shirkoohi, Aditya Prasad Dash, Benny Antony, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Josip Car, Turki Alanzi, Amir Jalali, Shahin Soltani, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, John S. Ji, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Khalid A Altirkawi, Shanshan Li, Hunduma Amensisa Amensisa Bojia I, Estifanos Baye, Hany Aref, Kebreab Paulos, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Felix Lam, Themba G.G. Ginindza, Behnam Heidari, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Kebadnew Mulatu Mihretie, Mostafa Leili, Sohail Ahmad, Babak Moazen, Samad Azari, Feleke Gebremeskel W, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal, Khanh Bao Tran, Okechukwu S Ogah, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Tefera Chane Mekonnen, Irina Filip, Bogdan Oancea, Lalit Dandona, Desalegn Markos Shifti, Nasir Salam, Binyam Minuye Birihane, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan, Sheetal D. Lad, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Ken Lee Chin, Masoud Moradi, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Behzad Heibati, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Mahya Beheshti, Ali Yadollahpour, Gelin Xu, Siamak Sabour, Neda Izadi, Carlos Culquichicón, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Ireneous N. Soyiri, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Félix Carvalho, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Dereje Bayissa Demissie, Yun Jin Kim, Rajesh Sagar, Fakher Rahim, Catrin E. Moore, Thomas R. Hird, Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Anton Sokhan, Faris Lami, Masoud Behzadifar, Ritesh G. Menezes, Amira Hamed Darwish, Mohammad Zamani, Tesleem Kayode Babalola, Navid Manafi, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Daniel Diaz, Eleonora Dubljanin, Soraya Nouraei Motlagh, Suraj Bhattarai, Getasew Taddesse Worku, Noore Alam, Jasvinder A. Singh, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Robert C. Reiner, Mohammedaman Mama Hussen, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Nuruzzaman Khan I, Bach Xuan Tran, Lal B. Rawal, Bereket Duko, Joemer C. Maravilla, Rakhi Dandona, Sandra B. Munro, Jae Il Shin, Julia Moreira Pescarini, Claudiu Herteliu, Ahmed Abdelalim, Manasi Kumar, Pushpendra Kumar, Saleem Muhammad Rana, Hedley Quintana, Akram Pourshams, Franz Castro, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Beyene Meressa Adhena, Aberash Abay Tasew, Linda Morales, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Wasiq Faraz Rawasia, David Laith Rawaf, Zoubida Zaidi, Tomislav Mestrovic, Rajeev Gupta, Seyyede Masoume Athari, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Andrea Werdecker, Santi Martini, Fatemeh Rajati, Andre Pascal Kengne, Victor Adekanmbi, Seid Tiku Mereta, Yared Asmare Aynalem, Kewal Krishan, Marzieh Nojomi, Yves Miel H Zuniga, Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh, Frank B. Osei, Nefsu Awoke, Randah R. Hamadeh, G. K. Mini, Edris Hasanpoor, Ayele Geleto Bali, Moslem Soofi, Prabhat Lamichhane, Peter Azzopardi, Amir Khater, G Anil Kumar, Catherine A. Welgan, Abraham Getachew Kelbore, Jaifred Christian F. Lopez, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Virendra Singh, Arash Ziapour, Zahid A Butt, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Sanjay Zodpey, Amaha Kahsay, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Simin Mouodi, Salman Rawaf, Iqbal R. F. Elyazar, Ai-Min Wu, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Yasir Waheed, Delia Hendrie, Hadi Pourjafar, Farnam Mohebi, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Paulina A. Lindstedt, Nauman Khalid, Sezer Kisa, Chi Linh Hoang, Niranjan Kissoon, Kindie Fentahun Muchie, Valery L. Feigin, Mathew M. Baumann, Alemayehu Toma, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Benjamin B. Massenburg, Santosh Varughese, Yuan-Pang Wang, Ingan Ukur Tarigan, Ali Kiadaliri, Hamed Zandian, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria, Oluchi Ezekannagha, Getinet Ayano, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Manu Raj Mathur, Manfred Accrombessi, Christopher J L Murray, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Saeed Amini, Ziad A. Memish, Yousef Mohammad, Luis Camera, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Ronny Westerman, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Negar Rezaei, Ted R. Miller, Aziz Eftekhari, Nevine El Nahas, Sebastian Vollmer, Sanjay Basu, Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi, D. R. Mahadeshwara Prasad, Rufus A. Adedoyin, Miliva Mozaffor I, Mihiretu Kebede, Preeti Dhillon, Dilaram Acharya, Iman El Sayed, Narendar Manohar, Paul S. F. Yip, Ben Lacey, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Adrian Davis, Dinh-Toi Chu, Ranjani Somayaji, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Mohan Bairwa, Gurudatta Naik, André Karch, Gudlavalleti V S Murthy, Avula Laxmaiah, Farid Najafi, Birhanu Geta Meharie, Lorenzo Monasta, Amit Arora, Christopher S Yilgwan, Samer Hamidi, Keivan Ahmadi, Kebede Deribe, Ehimario U. Igumbor, Engida Yisma, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Ali S. Shalash, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Sachin R Atre, Mohamed I Hegazy, Mehedi Hasan, Hamidreza Haririan, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Nejimu Biza Zepro, Surendra Karki, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Gbenga A. Kayode, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Paul H. Lee, Deepak Paudel, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Hatem S Shehata, Mohammad Fareed, Adnan Kisa, Hisham Atan Edinur, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Shafiur Rahman, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Bahram Mohajer, Narinder Pal Singh, Shai Linn, Savita Lasrado, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Mohd Anisul Karim, Praveen Hoogar, Kerrie E. Doyle, Bedilu Girma Weji, Juan Sanabria, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Mohamed Hsairi, Alireza Esteghamati, Seok Jun Yoon, Paramjit Gill, Dabere Nigatu, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Muhammad Usman, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Aziz Sheikh, Florian Fischer, Peter Memiah, Rakesh Lodha, Nihal Thomas, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Tanuj Kanchan, Vinay Nangia, Ashraf Nabhan, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Eirini Skiadaresi, Aleksandra Barac, Simon I. Hay, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Michellr L. Bell, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Aklilu Endalamaw, Vishnu Renjith, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Gabrielle B. Britton, Colm McAlinden, Ayenew Negesse Abejie, Smita Pakhale, Doris V.V. Ortega-Altamirano, Noushin Mohammadifard, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Vo Dinh Bay, Kirsten E. Wiens, Hamidreza Karimi-Sari, Mustafa Z. Younis, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Harish Chander Gugnani, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Maarten J. Postma, Usman Iqbal, Abdu A. Adamu, Marwa R.Rashad Salem I, Fares Alahdab, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Masoud Foroutan, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, In-Hwan Oh, Yahya Salimi, Takeshi Fukumoto, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Tiffany K. Gill, Angel Paternina-Caicedo, Walter Mendoza, Sojib Bin Zaman, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Brigette F. Blacker, Anbissa Muleta Senbeta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Ambrish Singh, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Mahesh P A, Carlo La Vecchia, Alex Yeshaneh, Benjamin K. Mayala, Aniruddha Deshpande, Agus Sudaryanto, Neeraj Bedi, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, Vahid Alipour, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Boris Bikbov, Ahmed Abualhasan, Ali H. Mokdad, Eduarda Fernandes, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Alessandra C. Goulart, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Masood Ali Shaikh, Roya Safari-Faramani, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Amir Anoushiravani, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Degena Bahrey Tadesse, Paula Moraga, Maha El Tantawi, Rosario Cárdenas, Assefa Desalew, Vivek Kumar, Mina Anjomshoa, Junaid Khan, Jagdish Khubchandani, Marcel Ausloos, Soraya Siabani, Anwar E. Ahmed, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Vuong Minh Nong, Kaushik Sarkar, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Yafeng Wang, Mitchell T. Wallin, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab, Melese Abate Reta, Kala M. Mehta, Yahya Safari, Marufa Sultana, David C. Schwebel, Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh, Samath D Dharmaratne, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Shiwei Liu, Gail Davey, Milena Ilic, Yunquan Zhang, Bahram Armoon, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Jost B. Jonas, Dian Kusuma, Yawukal chane Kasahun, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Mohammad Moradi-Joo, Gebrehiwot G. Kassa, Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas, Serge Resnikoff, Seifadin Ahmed Shallo, Bartosz Miazgowski, Huda Basaleem, Jobert Richie Nansseu, Enrico Rubagotti, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Meysam Behzadifar, Maryam Adabi, Saravanan Muthupandian, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, hawariat, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Dragos Virgil Davitoiu, Hossein Poustchi, Moses K. Muriithi, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ayman Grada, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Ashish Pathak, Salvatore Rubino, Kenji Shibuya, Ana Laura Manda, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Vivekanand Jha, Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye, Mohammad Hoseini, Sonali Kochhar, Van C. Lansingh, Ali Almasi, Amir Radfar, Till Bärnighausen, Marcia R. Weaver, Mowafa Househ, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun, Arash Etemadi, Getahun Fentaw Mulaw, Zubair Kabir, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Chabila C Mapoma, Aubrey J. Levine, Solomon Gedlu Nigatu, Aslam Pervaiz, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Nataliya A. Foigt, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, Sadaf Esteghamati, Chuanhua Yu, Pascual R. Valdez, Jennifer Rickard, Jennifer M. Ross, Ionut Negoi, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Kamarul Imran Musa, Farshad Pourmalek, Kiomars Sharafi, Sangram Kishor Patel, Vera Marisa Costa, Mostafa Hosseini, Hajer Elkout, Mika Shigematsu, Bryan L. Sykes, Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar, Nuworza Kugbey, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Payman Salamati, Mona M. Khater, Reta Tsegaye Gayesa, Ehsan Sadeghi, Andrew T Olagunju, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Yaschilal Muche Belayneh, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Nathaniel J. Henry, Brijesh Sathian, Hamid Sharifi, Liliana Preotescu, Joshua Longbottom, Somayeh Bohlouli, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Khaled Khatab, Ziyad Al-Aly, Ghobad Moradi, Ruth W Kimokoti, Jalal Arabloo, Mariam Molokhia, Maciej Banach, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Rahman Shiri, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Taweewat Wiangkham, Soewarta Kosen, Kovin Naidoo, Fernando de la Hoz, Mohammed Shannawaz, Berhe Etsay Tesfay I, Yogesh Sabde, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Belay Tessema, Reza Malekzadeh, Tinuke O Olagunju, Olatunde Aremu, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Derrick A Bennett, Oladimeji M. Adebayo, Teshome Gebre, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Alexandre C. Pereira, Mehdi Naderi, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Ilais Moreno Velásquez, Rovshan Khalilov, Ai Koyanagi, Salman Khazaei, Ismael R. Campos-Nonato, Alaa Badawi, Amir Hasanzadeh, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, Kate E. LeGrand, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Robert S. Bernstein, Irfan Ullah, Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu, Hadi Hassankhani, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborator, Violante FS, Wiens, KE, Lindstedt, PA, Blacker, BF, Johnson, KB, Yisma, E, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Reiner, Robert C, Duko, Bereket, Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators, Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Local Burden Dis Diarrhoea, Department of Earth Observation Science, UT-I-ITC-ACQUAL, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, GeoHealth, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Clinicum, Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, Department of Oncology, University of Helsinki, and Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto
Subjects: RJ101, medicine.medical_treatment, CHILDREN, ZINC, 0302 clinical medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, media_common, Geography, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, 1. No poverty, Low income and middle income countries, General Medicine, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, 3. Good health, Child, Preschool, A990 Medicine and Dentistry not elsewhere classified, Geographical inequalities, 0605 Microbiology, Diarrhea, AFRICA, Inequality, DEATHS, media_common.quotation_subject, 030231 tropical medicine, Developing country, Article, RS, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, 03 medical and health sciences, MORBIDITY, Environmental health, DIARRHEAL DISEASE, medicine, Humans, Oral rehydration therapy, Healthcare Disparities, Developing Countries, Models, Statistical, CHOLERA, MORTALITY, Infant, Newborn, Infant, lcsh:RA1-1270, Bayes Theorem, Middle income, GLOBAL BURDEN, Child mortality, 0605 Microbiology, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, Health Care Surveys, ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE, Fluid Therapy, NA, Human medicine, ITC-GOLD
Abstract: Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000-17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings: While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000-7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910-68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation: To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage. This work was primarily supported by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1132415). L G Abreu has received support from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Finance Code 001), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais. O O Adetokunboh acknowledges the South African Department of Science and Innovation and the National Research Foundation. S M Aljunid acknowledges the Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University and International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, Faculty of Medicine, National University of Malaysia for the approval and support to participate in this research project. H T Atalay acknowledges Aksum University. M Ausloos and C Herteliu are partially supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. P S Azzopardi was supported by an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) early career fellowship. A Badawi is supported by the Public Health Agency of Canada. T W Bärnighausen was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research; the EU; the Wellcome Trust; and from National Institute of Child Health and Human Development of National Institutes of Health (NIH; R01-HD084233), National Institute on Aging of NIH (P01-AG041710), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of NIH (R01-AI124389 and R01-AI112339), as well as Fogarty International Center of NIH (D43-TW009775). G B Britton is supported by Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI) de la Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT) of Panamá. A Barac is funded by the Project of Ministry of Education, Science and Technology of the Republic of Serbia (number III45005). D A Bennett was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service, the NIHR, or the UK Department of Health and Social Care. V M Costa acknowledges her grant (SFRH/BHD/110001/2015), received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006. F Carvalho acknowledges UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 support with funding from FCT/Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior through national funds. K Deribe is supported by a Wellcome Trust grant (number 201900/Z/16/Z) as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship. C Herteliu is partially supported by a grant co-funded by European Fund for Regional Development through the Operational Program for Competitiveness (project ID P_40_382). P Hoogar thanks Centre for Bio Cultural Studies, Directorate of Research, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal and Centre for Holistic Development and Research, Kalaghatgi-Karnataka. S M S Islam is funded by a Fellowship from National Heart Foundation of Australia and Deakin University. M Jakovljevic and the Serbian part of this GBD contribution was co-funded through grant OI175014 of the Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. A P Kengne is supported by the South African Medical Research Council. Y J Kim's work was supported by the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University Malaysia, grants number XMUMRF/2018-C2/ITCM/0001. K Krishan is supported by a DST PURSE grant and UGC Center of Advanced Study awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar acknowledges K43 TW010716-03. B Lacey acknowledges support from the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre and the British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, Oxford. P T N Memiah acknowledges the Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa. M Molokhia is supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Center at Guy's and St Thomas' National Health Service Foundation Trust and King's College London. I Moreno Velásquez is supported by the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SENACYT, Panamá). G C Patton is funded by an NHMRC Fellowship. A M Samy received a fellowship from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission programme. M M Santric-Milicevic acknowledges the support of the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (contract number 175087). A Sheikh acknowledges the support of Health Data Research UK. M R Sobhiyeh acknowledges the Clinical Research Development Center of Imam Reza Hospital, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences for their wise advice. R Tabarés-Seisdedos was supported in part by grant PI17/00719 from Instituto de Salud Carlos III–FEDER. B Unnikrishnan acknowledges Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. M R Weaver was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation grant OPP1127433. C S Wiysonge was supported by the South African Medical Research Council.
Published: 2020

13. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Roth, Gregory A., Collaborotors, G. B. 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G. A., Awasthi, Ashish, Quintattilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Ayele, Yohanes, Ayer, Rakesh, Azzopardi, Peter S., Babazadeh, Arefeh, Bacha, Umar, Badali, Hamid, Badawi, Alaa, Bali, Ayele Geleto, Ballesteros, Katherine E., Banach, Maciej, Banerjee, Kajori, Bannick, Marlena S., Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar, Barboza, Miguel A., Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyu, Barnighausen, Till Winfried, Barquera, Simon, Barrero, Lope, Bassat, Quique, Base, Sanjay, Baune, Bernhard T., Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Beth, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Behzadifar, Masoud, Behzadifar, Mcysam, Bejot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Belacliew, Abate Bekele, Belay, Ezra, Belay, Yihalem Abebe, Bell, Michelle L., Bello, Aminu K., Bennett, Derrick A., Bensenor, Isabela M., Berman, Adam F., Bernabe, Eduardo, Bernstein, Robert S., Bertolacci, Gregory J., Beuran, Mircea, Beyranvand, Tina, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhattarai, Suraj, Bhaumik, Sounayadeeep, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Biadgo, Belete, Biehl, Molly H., Bijani, Ali, Bikbov, Boris, Bilano, Ver, Bililign, Nigus, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shandaat, Bisanzio, Donal, Biswas, Tuhin, Blacker, Brigitte F., Basara, Berrak Bora, Borschmann, Rohan, Bosetti, Cristina, Bozorgmehr, Kayvan, Brady, Oliver J., Brant, Luisa C., Brayne, Carol, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J. K., Brenner, Hermann, Briant, Paul Svitil, Britton, Gabrielle, Brugha, Traolach, Busse, Reinhard, Butt, Zahid A., Callender, Charlton S. K. H., Campos-Nonato, Ismael R., Rincon, Julio Cesar Canapuzano, Cano, Jorge, Car, Mate, Cardenas, Rosario, Carreras, Giulia, Carrero, Juan J., Carter, Austin, Carvalho, Felix, Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo, Castle, Chris D., Castro, Clara, Castro, Franz, Catala-Lopez, Ferran, Cerin, Ester, Chaiah, Yazan, Chang, Jung -Chen, Chanson, Fiona J., Chaturvedi, Pankaj, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Chitheet, Abdulaal, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Christopher, Devasahayam J., Chiang, Sheng-Chia, Cicuttini, Flavia M., Ciobanu, Liliana G., Cirillo, Massimo, Cohen, Aaron J., Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cortesi, Paolo Angelo, Cortinovis, Monica, Cousin, Ewerton, Cowie, Benjamin C., Criqui, Michael H., Cromwell, Elizabeth A., Crowe, Christopher Stephen, Crump, John A., Cunningham, Matthew, Daba, Alemneh Kabeta, Dadi, Abel Fekadu, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dang, Anh Kim, Dargan, Paul I., Daryani, Ahmad, Das, Siddharth K., Das Gupta, Rajat, Das Neves, Jose, Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye, Dash, Aditya Prasad, Davis, Adrian C., Weaver, Nicole Davis, Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil, Davletov, Kairat, De La Hoz, Fernando Pio, De Neve, Jan-Walter, Degefa, Meaza Girma, Degenhardt, Louisa, Degfie, Tizta T., Deiparine, Selina, Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam, Demtsu, Baleen Betsu, Denova-Gutierrez, Edgar, Deribe, Kebede, Dervenis, Nikolaos, Jarlais, Don C. Des, Dessie, Getenet Ayalew, Dey, Subhojit, Dhannaratne, Samath D., Dicker, Daniel, Dinberu, Mesfin Tadese, Ding, Eric L., Dirac, M. Ashworth, Djalalinia, Shirin, Dokova, Klara, Ter Doku, David, Donnelly, Christl A., Dorsey, E. Ray, Doshi, Pratik P., Douwes-Schultz, Dirk, Doyle, Kerrie E., Driscoll, Tim R., Dubey, Manisha, Dubljanin, Eleonora, Duken, Eyasu Ejeta, Duncan, Bruce B., Duraes, Andre R., Ebrahimi, Hedyeh, Ebrahimpour, Soheil, Edessa, Dumessa, Edvardsson, David, Eggen, Anne Elise, El Bcheraoui, Charbel, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, El-Khatib, Ziad, Elkout, Hajer, Eltinsel, Christian Lycke, Endres, Matthias, Endries, Aman Yesuf, Er, Benjamin, Erskine, Holly E., Eshrati, Babak, Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Esmaeili, Reza, Esteghamati, Alireza, Fakhar, Mahdi, Fakhim, Hamed, Faramarzi, Mahbobeh, Fareed, Mohammad, Farhadi, Farzaneh, Faninha, Carla Sofia E. 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Jc, Ferrari, Aj, Feyissa, Gt, Foigt, Na, Foreman, Kj, Frank, Td, Fuller, Je, Fürst, T, Furtado, Jm, Futran, Nd, Garcia-Basteiro, Al, Garcia-Gordillo, Ma, Gardner, Wm, Gebre, Ak, Gebrehiwot, Tt, Gebremedhin, At, Gebremichael, Tg, Gelano, Tf, Geleijnse, Jm, Geramo, Ycd, Gething, Pw, Gezae, Ke, Ghadami, Mr, Gibney, Kb, Gill, Tk, Gillum, Rf, Ginawi, Ia, Goldberg, Em, Gómez-Dantés, H, Gona, Pn, Gopalani, Sv, Gorman, Tm, Goulart, Ac, Gnedovskaya, Ev, Gugnani, Hc, Guimaraes, Al, Gupta, Pc, Gutiérrez, Ra, Haagsma, Ja, Hagos, Tb, Hailegiyorgis, Tt, Hailu, Gb, Hamadeh, Rr, Handal, Aj, Hankey, Gj, Harb, Hl, Haro, Jm, Hassen, Hy, Hay, Rj, Hay, Si, Hegazy, Mi, Henry, Nj, Hibstu, Dt, Hoek, Hw, Hole, Mk, Hosgood, Hd, Hosseini, Sm, Hotez, Pj, Hoy, Dg, Huang, Jj, Hussen, Mm, Irvani, Ssn, Irvine, Cm, Islam, Sm, Jacobsen, Kh, Jain, Sk, Jalu, Mt, James, Sl, Jayatilleke, Au, Jenkins, Kj, Jha, Rp, Johnson, Co, Johnson, Sc, Jonas, Jb, Jozwiak, Jj, Jungari, Sb, Jürisson, M, Kassa, Dh, Kassa, Gm, Kassa, Td, Kassebaum, Nj, Katikireddi, Sv, Karyani, Ak, Kefale, At, Keiyoro, Pn, Kemp, Gr, Kengne, Ap, Kesavachandran, Cn, Khafaie, Ma, Khalil, Ia, Khan, Ea, Khan, Ma, Khang, Yh, Khater, Mm, Khoja, At, Khosravi, Mh, Kiadaliri, Aa, Kibret, Gd, Kidanemariam, Zt, Kiirithio, Dn, Kim, Ye, Kim, Yj, Kimokoti, Rw, Kivimäki, M, Knudsen, Ak, Kocarnik, Jm, Kopec, Ja, Koul, Pa, Kravchenko, Ma, Kumar, Ga, Kutz, Mj, Kyu, Hh, Lad, Dp, Lad, Sd, Lal, Dk, Lam, Jo, Lami, Fh, Lansingh, Vc, Larson, Hj, Lau, Km, Lazarus, Jv, Lee, Ph, Leshargie, Ct, Lim, Ll, Limenih, Ma, Lopez, Ad, Lotufo, Pa, Macarayan, Erk, Mackay, Mt, Maclachlan, Jh, Maddison, Er, Maghavani, Dp, Malta, Dc, Manda, Al, Mandarano-Filho, Lg, Mansournia, Ma, Mapoma, Cc, Maravilla, Jc, Marks, Gb, Martins-Melo, Fr, März, W, Marzan, Mb, Masci, Jr, Massenburg, Bb, Mathur, Mr, Maulik, Pk, Mcgrath, Jj, Mcmahon, Bj, Mehndiratta, Mm, Mehta, Km, Mekonnen, Tc, Memiah, Ptn, Memish, Za, Mengistu, Dt, Mensah, Ga, Mereta, St, Meretoja, Tj, Mezgebe, Hb, Millear, Ai, Miller, Tr, Miller-Petrie, Mk, Mini, Gk, Mirrakhimov, Em, Misganaw, At, Mohammad, Ka, Mohammed, Ma, Mokdad, Ah, Moreno Velásquez, I, Morrison, Sd, Moschos, Mm, Mousavi, Sm, Muchie, Kf, Mueller, Uo, Mumford, Je, Musa, Ki, Nachega, Jb, Nansseu, Jr, Nascimento, Br, Negoi, Ri, Newton, Crj, Ngalesoni, Fn, Ngunjiri, Jw, Nguyen, Aq, Nguyen, Ht, Nguyen, Lh, Nguyen, Th, Ningrum, Dna, Nirayo, Yl, Nixon, Mr, Norheim, Of, Noubiap, Jj, Nouri, Hr, Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M, Nowroozi, Mr, Odell, Cm, Ogbo, Fa, Oh, Ih, Olagunju, At, Olivares, Pr, Olsen, He, Olusanya, Bo, Olusanya, Jo, Ong, Kl, Ong, Sk, Orpana, Hm, Ortiz, Jr, Øverland, S, Owolabi, Mo, Özdemir, R, P A, M, Pakhare, Ap, Pakpour, Ah, Pandian, Jd, Park, Ek, Parry, Cdh, Patton, Gc, Paturi, Vr, Paulson, Kr, Pereira, Dm, Phillips, Mr, Piel, Fb, Pigott, Dm, Pillay, Jd, Postma, Mj, Purcell, Ca, Quistberg, Da, Rade, Kw, Radfar, A, Rafay, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahman, Mhu, Rahman, Ma, Rai, Rk, Ranabhat, Cl, Rao, Pc, Rawaf, Dl, Razo-García, C, Reiner, Rc, Reitsma, Mb, Renzaho, Amn, Riahi, Sm, Ribeiro, Alp, Rios-Blancas, Mj, Roba, Kt, Roberts, Nl, Robinson, Sr, Sahraian, Ma, Saldanha, Rf, Sambala, Ez, Samy, Am, Sanchez-Niño, Md, Santomauro, Df, Santos, Jv, Milicevic, Mm, Sao Jose, Bp, Sarker, Ar, Sarmiento-Suárez, R, Sawant, Ar, Schmidt, Mi, Schneider, Ijc, Schöttker, B, Schutte, Ae, Schwebel, Dc, Scott, Jg, Sepanlou, Sg, Serván-Mori, E, Shackelford, Ka, Shaheen, Aa, Shaikh, Ma, Shrime, Mg, Siddiqi, Tj, Sigfusdottir, Id, Silberberg, Dh, Silva, Da, Silva, Jp, Silva, Ntd, Silveira, Dga, Singh, Ja, Singh, Np, Singh, Pk, Sinha, Dn, Sobaih, Bh, Sorensen, Rjd, Soriano, Jb, Soyiri, In, Sposato, La, Sreeramareddy, Ct, Stanaway, Jd, Starodubov, Vi, Stein, Dj, Stewart, Lg, Stokes, Ma, Subart, Ml, Sufiyan, Mb, Sur, Pj, Sykes, Bl, Sylaja, Pn, Sylte, Do, Szoeke, Cei, Tabarés-Seisdedos, R, Tadakamadla, Sk, Tassew, Sg, Tekalign, Tg, Tekle, Mg, Temsah, Mh, Teshale, My, Tessema, Ga, Thankappan, Kr, Thrift, Ag, Thurston, Gd, To, Qg, Torre, Ae, Tortajada-Girbés, M, Tovani-Palone, Mr, Tran, Bx, Tran, Kb, Troeger, Ce, Truelsen, Tc, Truong, Nt, Tsadik, Ag, Tuzcu, Em, Ukwaja, Kn, Undurraga, Ea, Updike, Rl, Uthman, Oa, Uzun, Sb, Valdez, Pr, Vasankari, Tj, Vladimirov, Sk, Vollset, Se, Wagner, Gr, Wallin, Mt, Walson, Jl, Wang, Yp, Wassie, Mm, Weintraub, Rg, Weldegwergs, Kg, Werkneh, Aa, West, Te, Whiteford, Ha, Wilner, Lb, Wolfe, Cda, Wu, Yc, Wyper, Gma, Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Sh, Yan, Ll, Yasin, Yj, Yentür, Gk, Yimer, Em, Yirsaw, Bd, Yoon, Sj, Younis, Mz, Zaman, Sb, Zeleke, Aj, Zenebe, Zm, Zhang, Al, Zuhlke, Lj, and Murray, Cjl.
Subjects: Adult, Male, Adolescent, national age-sex-specific mortality, UNITED-STATES, Global Health, Socioeconomic Factor, Global Burden of Disease, GBD, causes of death, Young Adult, Age Distribution, Life Expectancy, General & Internal Medicine, Cause of Death, PUBLIC-HEALTH PROBLEM, mortality, 282 causes global burden of disease, Sex Distribution, Child, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, BARRIERS, DEMENTIA, Medicine (all), Infant, Newborn, Infant, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Middle Aged, TRENDS, PREVENTION, PREVALENCE, ALZHEIMERS-DISEASE, INDIVIDUALS, 3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine, Child, Preschool, REGISTRATION, Female, Human medicine, Human
Abstract: Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Published: 2018

14. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Stanaway, Jeffrey D., Afshin, Ashkan, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Lim, Stephen S., Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Molla, Abebe, Zegeye, Abera, Semaw F., Abil, Olifan Zewdie, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Dilaram, Acharya, Pawan, Adamu, Abdu A., Adane, Akilew Awoke, Adebayo, Oladimeji M., Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji, Adekanmbi, Victor, Ademi, Zanfina, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O., Adib, Mina G., Admasie, Amha, Adsuar, Jose C., Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko, Afarideh, Mohsen, Agarwal, Gina, Aggarwal, Anju, Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi, Agrawal, Anurag, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M., Alahdab, Fares, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Samiah, Alam, Tahiya, Alashi, Alaa, Alavian, Seyed Moayed, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Ali, Komal, Ali, Syed Mustafa, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T., Ammar, Walid, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Anderson, Jason A., Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antó, Josep M., Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Anwari, Palwasha, Appiah, Lambert Tetteh, Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw, Arabloo, Jalal, Aremu, Olatunde, Ärnlöv, Johan, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K., Asayesh, Hamid, Ataro, Zerihun, Ausloos, Marcel, Avokpaho, Euripide F.G.A., Awasthi, Ashish, Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina, Ayer, Rakesh, Ayuk, Tambe B., Azzopardi, Peter S., Babazadeh, Arefeh, Badali, Hamid, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Bali, Ayele Geleto, Ball, Kylie, Ballew, Shoshana H., Banach, Maciej, Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar, Barac, Aleksandra, Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn, Bärnighausen, Till Winfried, Barrero, Lope H., Basu, Sanjay, Baune, Bernhard T., Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Behzadifar, Masoud, Behzadifar, Meysam, Béjot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Bekru, Eyasu Tamru, Belay, Ezra, Belay, Yihalem Abebe, Bell, Michelle L., Bello, Aminu K., Bennett, Derrick A., Bensenor, Isabela M., Bergeron, Gilles, Berhane, Adugnaw, Bernabe, Eduardo, Bernstein, Robert S., Beuran, Mircea, Beyranvand, Tina, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhattarai, Suraj, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Biadgo, Belete, Bijani, Ali, Bikbov, Boris, Bilano, Ver, Bililign, Nigus, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat, Bisanzio, Donal, Biswas, Tuhin, Bjørge, Tone, Blacker, Brigette F., Bleyer, Archie, Borschmann, Rohan, Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R., Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert, Brady, Oliver J., Brauer, Michael, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J.K., Brenner, Hermann, Briko, Andrey Nikolaevich, Britton, Gabrielle, Brugha, Traolach, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Burnett, Richard T., Busse, Reinhard, Butt, Zahid A., Cahill, Leah E., Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Campos-Nonato, Ismael R., Cárdenas, Rosario, Carreras, Giulia, Carrero, Juan J., Carvalho, Félix, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline, Castro, Franz, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Causey, Kate, Cercy, Kelly M., Cerin, Ester, Chaiah, Yazan, Chang, Hsing Yi, Chang, Jung Chen, Chang, Kai Lan, Charlson, Fiona J., Chattopadhyay, Aparajita, Chattu, Vijay Kumar, Chee, Miao Li, Cheng, Ching Yu, Chew, Adrienne, Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chin, Ken Lee, Chitheer, Abdulaal, Choi, Jee Young J., Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Christopher, Devasahayam J., Chung, Sheng Chia, Cicuttini, Flavia M., Cirillo, Massimo, Cohen, Aaron J., Collado-Mateo, Daniel, Cooper, Cyrus, Cooper, Owen R., Coresh, Josef, Cornaby, Leslie, Cortesi, Paolo Angelo, Cortinovis, Monica, Costa, Megan, Cousin, Ewerton, Criqui, Michael H., Cromwell, Elizabeth A., Cundiff, David K., Daba, Alemneh Kabeta, Dachew, Berihun Assefa, Dadi, Abel Fekadu, Damasceno, Albertino Antonio Moura, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Darby, Sarah C., Dargan, Paul I., Daryani, Ahmad, Das Gupta, Rajat, Das Neves, José, Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye, Dash, Aditya Prasad, Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil, Davletov, Kairat, De la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa, De La Hoz, Fernando Pio, De Leo, Diego, De Neve, Jan Walter, Degenhardt, Louisa, Deiparine, Selina, Dellavalle, Robert P., Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam, Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar, Deribe, Kebede, Dervenis, Nikolaos, Deshpande, Aniruddha, Des Jarlais, Don C., Dessie, Getenet Ayalew, Deveber, Gabrielle Aline, Dey, Subhojit, Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda, Dhimal, Meghnath, Dinberu, Mesfin Tadese, Ding, Eric L., Diro, Helen Derara, Djalalinia, Shirin, Do, Huyen Phuc, Dokova, Klara, Doku, David Teye, Doyle, Kerrie E., Driscoll, Tim R., Dubey, Manisha, Dubljanin, Eleonora, Duken, Eyasu Ejeta, Duncan, Bruce B., Duraes, Andre R., Ebert, Natalie, Ebrahimi, Hedyeh, Ebrahimpour, Soheil, Edvardsson, David, Effiong, Andem, Eggen, Anne Elise, El Bcheraoui, Charbel, El-Khatib, Ziad, Elyazar, Iqbal Rf, Enayati, Ahmadali, Endries, Aman Yesuf, Er, Benjamin, Erskine, Holly E., Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Esteghamati, Alireza, Estep, Kara, Fakhim, Hamed, Faramarzi, Mahbobeh, Fareed, Mohammad, Farid, Talha A., Farinha, Carla Sofia E.sá, Farioli, Andrea, Faro, Andre, Farvid, Maryam S., Farzaei, Mohammad Hosein, Fatima, Batool, Fay, Kairsten A., Fazaeli, Ali Akbar, Feigin, Valery L., Feigl, Andrea B., Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad, Fernandes, Eduarda, Fernandes, Joao C., Ferrara, Giannina, Ferrari, Alize J., Ferreira, Manuela L., Filip, Irina, Finger, Jonas David, Fischer, Florian, Foigt, Nataliya A., Foreman, Kyle J., Fukumoto, Takeshi, Fullman, Nancy, Fürst, Thomas, Furtado, João M., Futran, Neal D., Gall, Seana, Gallus, Silvano, Gamkrelidze, Amiran, Ganji, Morsaleh, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L., Gardner, William M., Gebre, Abadi Kahsu, Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay, Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo, Gelano, Tilayie Feto, Geleijnse, Johanna M., Geramo, Yilma Chisha Dea, Gething, Peter W., Gezae, Kebede Embaye, Ghadimi, Reza, Ghadiri, Keyghobad, Ghasemi Falavarjani, Khalil, Ghasemi-Kasman, Maryam, Ghimire, Mamata, Ghosh, Rakesh, Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal, Giampaoli, Simona, Gill, Paramjit Singh, Gill, Tiffany K., Gillum, Richard F., Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageed, Giussani, Giorgia, Gnedovskaya, Elena V., Godwin, William W., Goli, Srinivas, Gómez-Dantés, Hector, Gona, Philimon N., Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Goulart, Alessandra C., Grada, Ayman, Grams, Morgan E., Grosso, Giuseppe, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Guo, Yuming, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Tanush, Gutiérrez, Reyna Alma, Gutiérrez-Torres, Daniela S., Haagsma, Juanita A., Habtewold, Tesfa Dejenie, Hachinski, Vladimir, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hagos, Tekleberhan B., Hailegiyorgis, Tewodros Tesfa, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin, Haj-Mirzaian, Arya, Hamadeh, Randah R., Hamidi, Samer, Handal, Alexis J., Hankey, Graeme J., Hao, Yuantao, Harb, Hilda L., Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai, Haro, Josep Maria, Hassankhani, Hadi, Hassen, Hamid Yimam, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hawley, Caitlin N., Hay, Simon I., Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Akbar, Heibati, Behzad, Heidari, Behnam, Heidari, Mohsen, Hendrie, Delia, Henok, Andualem, Heredia-Pi, Ileana, Herteliu, Claudiu, Heydarpour, Fatemeh, Heydarpour, Sousan, Hibstu, Desalegn T., Higazi, Tarig B., Hilawe, Esayas Haregot, Hoek, Hans W., Hoffman, Howard J., Hole, Michael K., Homaie Rad, Enayatollah, Hoogar, Praveen, Hosgood, H. Dean, Hosseini, Seyed Mostafa, Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi, Hostiuc, Mihaela, Hostiuc, Sorin, Hoy, Damian G., Hsairi, Mohamed, Hsiao, Thomas, Hu, Guoqing, Hu, Howard, Huang, John J., Hussen, Mamusha Aman, Huynh, Chantal K., Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Ikeda, Nayu, Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen, Iqbal, Usman, Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi, Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Islami, Farhad, Jackson, Maria D., Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jahangiry, Leila, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jain, Sudhir Kumar, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo, James, Spencer L., Jassal, Simerjot K., Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jha, Ravi Prakash, Jha, Vivekanand, Ji, John S., Jonas, Jost B., Jonnagaddala, Jitendra, Jorjoran Shushtari, Zahra, Joshi, Ankur, Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy, Jürisson, Mikk, Kabir, Zubair, Kahsay, Amaha, Kalani, Rizwan, Kanchan, Tanuj, Kant, Surya, Kar, Chittaranjan, Karami, Manoochehr, Karami Matin, Behzad, Karch, André, Karema, Corine, Karimi, Narges, Karimi, Seyed M., Kasaeian, Amir, Kassa, Dessalegn H., Kassa, Getachew Mullu, Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale, Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazemi, Zhila, Karyani, Ali Kazemi, Kefale, Adane Teshome, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Kemp, Grant Rodgers, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khafaei, Behzad, Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif, Khajavi, Alireza, Khalid, Nauman, Khalil, Ibrahim A., Khan, Gulfaraz, Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb, Khan, Muhammad Ali, Khang, Young Ho, Khater, Mona M., Khazaei, Mohammad, Khazaie, Habibolah, Khoja, Abdullah T., Khosravi, Ardeshir, Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A., Kiirithio, Daniel N., Kim, Cho Il, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Young Eun, Kim, Yun Jin, Kimokoti, Ruth W., Kinfu, Yohannes, Kisa, Adnan, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna, Kivimäki, Mika, Knibbs, Luke D., Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo, Kochhar, Sonali, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kolola, Tufa, Kopec, Jacek A., Kosen, Soewarta, Koul, Parvaiz A., Koyanagi, Ai, Kravchenko, Michael A., Krishan, Kewal, Krohn, Kristopher J., Kromhout, Hans, Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kucuk Bicer, Burcu, Kumar, G. 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Sk, Vollset, Se, Vu, Gt, Waller, Sg, Walson, Jl, Wang, Yp, Weintraub, Rg, Werkneh, Aa, West, Jj, Whiteford, Ha, Wiyeh, Ab, Wolfe, Cda, Wong, Ty, Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Sh, Yan, Ll, Yasin, Yj, Yimer, Em, Yoon, Sj, Younis, Mz, Zaman, Sb, Zhang, Al, Zimsen, Srm, Murray, Cjl., Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Afshin, Ashkan, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Lim, Stephen S, Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Molla, Abebe, Zegeye, Abera, Semaw F, Abil, Olifan Zewdie, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Dilaram, Acharya, Pawan, Adamu, Abdu A, Adane, Akilew Awoke, Adebayo, Oladimeji M, Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji, Adekanmbi, Victor, Ademi, Zanfina, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O, Adib, Mina G, Admasie, Amha, Adsuar, Jose C, Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko, Afarideh, 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Kumar, Takahashi, Ken, Tandon, Nikhil, Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taveira, Nuno, Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash, Tekalign, Tigist Gashaw, Tekelemedhin, Shishay Wahdey, Tekle, Merhawi Gebremedhin, Temesgen, Habtamu, Temsah, Mohamad-Hani, Temsah, Omar, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Tessema, Belay, Teweldemedhin, Mebrahtu, Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Theis, Andrew, Thirunavukkarasu, Sathish, Thomas, Hannah J, Thomas, Matthew Lloyd, Thomas, Nihal, Thurston, George D, Tilahun, Binyam, Tillmann, Taavi, To, Quyen G, Tobollik, Myriam, Tonelli, Marcello, Topor-Madry, Roman, Torre, Anna E, Tortajada-Girbés, Miguel, Touvier, Mathilde, Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto, Towbin, Jeffrey A, Tran, Bach Xuan, Tran, Khanh Bao, Truelsen, Thomas Clement, Truong, Nu Thi, Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel, Tudor Car, Lorainne, Tuzcu, E Murat, Tymeson, Hayley D, Tyrovolas, Stefano, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Ullah, Irfan, Updike, Rachel L, Usman, Muhammad Shariq, Uthman, Olalekan A, Vaduganathan, Muthiah, Vaezi, Afsane, Valdez, Pascual R, Van Donkelaar, Aaron, Varavikova, Elena, Varughese, Santosh, Vasankari, Tommi Juhani, Venkateswaran, Vidhya, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Villafaina, Santo, Violante, Francesco S, Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch, Vlassov, Vasily, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vos, Theo, Vosoughi, Kia, Vu, Giang Thu, Vujcic, Isidora S, Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw, Waheed, Yasir, Waller, Stephen G, Walson, Judd L, Wang, Yafeng, Wang, Yanping, Wang, Yuan-Pang, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Weldegebreal, Fitsum, Werdecker, Andrea, Werkneh, Adhena Ayaliew, West, J Jason, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A, Widecka, Justyna, Wijeratne, Tissa, Winkler, Andrea Sylvia, Wiyeh, Alison B, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Wolfe, Charles D A, Wong, Tien Yin, Wu, Shouling, Xavier, Deni, Xu, Gelin, Yadgir, Simon, Yadollahpour, Ali, Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein, Yamada, Tomohide, Yan, Lijing L, Yano, Yuichiro, Yaseri, Mehdi, Yasin, Yasin Jemal, Yeshaneh, Alex, Yimer, Ebrahim M, Yip, Paul, Yisma, Engida, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Yotebieng, Marcel, Younis, Mustafa Z, Yousefifard, Mahmoud, Yu, Chuanhua, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zaman, Sojib Bin, Zamani, Mohammad, Zavala-Arciniega, Lui, Zhang, Anthony Lin, Zhang, Hao, Zhang, Kai, Zhou, Maigeng, Zimsen, Stephanie R M, Zodpey, Sanjay, and Murray, Christopher J L
Subjects: Science & Technology, GBD, risks, risk factors, comparative risk assesment, Dalys, Medicine (all), CHOLESTEROL, BLOOD-PRESSURE, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, ILLNESS, TRENDS, humanities, Medicine, General & Internal, TOBACCO CONTROL, General & Internal Medicine, parasitic diseases, Medicine and Health Sciences, CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASES, TRIAL, Human medicine, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, METAANALYSIS
Abstract: Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk– outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Lancet 2018; 392: 1923–94 *Collaborators listed at the end of the paper Correspondence to: Prof Christopher J L Murray, Institute for Health Metrics and Evalution, Seattle, WA 98121, USA cjlm@uw.edu Global Health Metrics 1924 www.thelancet.com Vol 392 November 10, 2018 Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.
Published: 2018

15. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: James, Spencer L., Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abay, Solomon M., Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Zegeye, Abera, Semaw F., Abil, Olifan Zewdie, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E., Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Dilaram, Acharya, Pawan, Ackerman, Ilana N., Adamu, Abdu A., Adebayo, Oladimeji M., Adekanmbi, Victor, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O., Adib, Mina G., Adsuar, Jose C., Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko, Afarideh, Mohsen, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Gina, Agesa, Kareha M., Aggarwal, Rakesh, Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M., Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M., Alahdab, Fares, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Tahiya, Alashi, Alaa, Alavian, Seyed Moayed, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Alouani, Mohamed M. L., Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T., Aminde, Leopold N., Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Anwari, Palwasha, Arabloo, Jalal, Arauz, Antonio, Aremu, Olatunde, Ariani, Filippo, Armoon, Bahroom, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arora, Amit, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K., Asayesh, Hamid, Asghar, Rana Jawad, Ataro, Zerihun, Atre, Sachin R., Ausloos, Marcel, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide F. G. A., Awasthi, Ashish, Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina, Ayer, Rakesh, Azzopardi, Peter S., Babazadeh, Arefeh, Badali, Hamid, Badawi, Alaa, Bali, Ayele Geleto, Ballesteros, Katherine E., Ballew, Shoshana H., Banach, Maciej, Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar, Banstola, Amrit, Barac, Aleksandra, Barboza, Miguel A., Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn, Bärnighausen, Till Winfried, Barrero, Lope H., Baune, Bernhard T., Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Behzadifar, Masoud, Behzadifar, Meysam, Béjot, Yannick, Belachew, Abate Bekele, Belay, Yihalem Abebe, Bell, Michelle L., Bello, Aminu K., Bensenor, Isabela M., Bernabe, Eduardo, Bernstein, Robert S., Beuran, Mircea, Beyranvand, Tina, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhattarai, Suraj, Bhaumik, Soumyadeep, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Biadgo, Belete, Bijani, Ali, Bikbov, Boris, Bilano, Ver, Bililign, Nigus, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat, Bisanzio, Donal, Blacker, Brigette F., Blyth, Fiona M., Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R., Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert, Brady, Oliver J., Brainin, Michael, Brant, Luisa C., Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J. K., Brenner, Hermann, Briant, Paul Svitil, Briggs, Andrew M., Briko, Andrey Nikolaevich, Britton, Gabrielle, Brugha, Traolach, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Busse, Reinhard, Butt, Zahid A., Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Cano, Jorge, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carrero, Juan J., Carter, Austin, Carvalho, Félix, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline, Castro, Franz, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Cercy, Kelly M., Cerin, Ester, Chaiah, Yazan, Chang, Alex R., Chang, Hsing-Yi, Chang, Jung-Chen, Charlson, Fiona J., Chattopadhyay, Aparajita, Chattu, Vijay Kumar, Chaturvedi, Pankaj, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chin, Ken Lee, Chitheer, Abdulaal, Choi, Jee-Young J., Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Christopher, Devasahayam J., Cicuttini, Flavia M., Ciobanu, Liliana G., Cirillo, Massimo, Claro, Rafael M., Collado-Mateo, Daniel, Cooper, Cyrus, Coresh, Josef, Cortesi, Paolo Angelo, Cortinovis, Monica, Costa, Megan, Cousin, Ewerton, Criqui, Michael H., Cromwell, Elizabeth A., Cross, Marita, Crump, John A., Dadi, Abel Fekadu, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dargan, Paul I., Daryani, Ahmad, Das Gupta, Rajat, Das Neves, José, Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye, Davey, Gail, Davis, Adrian C., Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil, De Courten, Barbora, De La Hoz, Fernando Pio, De Leo, Diego, De Neve, Jan-Walter, Degefa, Meaza Girma, Degenhardt, Louisa, Deiparine, Selina, Dellavalle, Robert P., Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam, Deribe, Kebede, Dervenis, Nikolaos, Des Jarlais, Don C., Dessie, Getenet Ayalew, Dey, Subhojit, Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda, Dinberu, Mesfin Tadese, Dirac, M. Ashworth, Djalalinia, Shirin, Doan, Linh, Dokova, Klara, Doku, David Teye, Dorsey, E. Ray, Doyle, Kerrie E., Driscoll, Tim Robert, Dubey, Manisha, Dubljanin, Eleonora, Duken, Eyasu Ejeta, Duncan, Bruce B., Duraes, Andre R., Ebrahimi, Hedyeh, Ebrahimpour, Soheil, Echko, Michelle Marie, Edvardsson, David, Effiong, Andem, Ehrlich, Joshua R., El Bcheraoui, Charbel, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, El-Khatib, Ziad, Elkout, Hajer, Elyazar, Iqbal R. F., Enayati, Ahmadali, Endries, Aman Yesuf, Er, Benjamin, Erskine, Holly E., Eshrati, Babak, Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Esteghamati, Alireza, Esteghamati, Sadaf, Fakhim, Hamed, Fallah Omrani, Vahid, Faramarzi, Mahbobeh, Fareed, Mohammad, Farhadi, Farzaneh, Farid, Talha A., Farinha, Carla Sofia E. sá, Farioli, Andrea, Faro, Andre, Farvid, Maryam S., Farzadfar, Farshad, Feigin, Valery L., Fentahun, Netsanet, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Eduarda, Fernandes, Joao C., Ferrari, Alize J., Feyissa, Garumma Tolu, Filip, Irina, Fischer, Florian, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Foigt, Nataliya A., Foreman, Kyle J., Fox, Jack, Frank, Tahvi D., Fukumoto, Takeshi, Fullman, Nancy, Fürst, Thomas, Furtado, João M., Futran, Neal D., Gall, Seana, Ganji, Morsaleh, Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L., Gardner, William M., Gebre, Abadi Kahsu, Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay, Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo, Gelano, Tilayie Feto, Geleijnse, Johanna M., Genova-Maleras, Ricard, Geramo, Yilma Chisha Dea, Gething, Peter W., Gezae, Kebede Embaye, Ghadiri, Keyghobad, Ghasemi Falavarjani, Khalil, Ghasemi-Kasman, Maryam, Ghimire, Mamata, Ghosh, Rakesh, Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal, Giampaoli, Simona, Gill, Paramjit Singh, Gill, Tiffany K., Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageed, Giussani, Giorgia, Gnedovskaya, Elena V., Goldberg, Ellen M., Goli, Srinivas, Gómez-Dantés, Hector, Gona, Philimon N., Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Gorman, Taren M., Goulart, Alessandra C., Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia, Grada, Ayman, Grams, Morgan E., Grosso, Giuseppe, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Guo, Yuming, Gupta, Prakash C., Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Tanush, Gyawali, Bishal, Haagsma, Juanita A., Hachinski, Vladimir, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan, Hagos, Tekleberhan B., Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin, Haj-Mirzaian, Arya, Hamadeh, Randah R., Hamidi, Samer, Handal, Alexis J., Hankey, Graeme J., Hao, Yuantao, Harb, Hilda L., Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai, Haro, Josep Maria, Hasan, Mehedi, Hassankhani, Hadi, Hassen, Hamid Yimam, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hawley, Caitlin N., Hay, Roderick J., Hay, Simon I., Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Akbar, Heibati, Behzad, Hendrie, Delia, Henok, Andualem, Herteliu, Claudiu, Heydarpour, Sousan, Hibstu, Desalegn Tsegaw, Hoang, Huong Thanh, Hoek, Hans W., Hoffman, Howard J., Hole, Michael K., Homaie Rad, Enayatollah, Hoogar, Praveen, Hosgood, H. Dean, Hosseini, Seyed Mostafa, Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi, Hostiuc, Mihaela, Hostiuc, Sorin, Hotez, Peter J., Hoy, Damian G., Hsairi, Mohamed, Htet, Aung Soe, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, John J., Huynh, Chantal K., Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Ikeda, Chad Thomas, Ileanu, Bogdan, Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen, Iqbal, Usman, Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi, Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Islami, Farhad, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jahangiry, Leila, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jain, Sudhir Kumar, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo, Javanbakht, Mehdi, Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jha, Ravi Prakash, Jha, Vivekanand, Ji, John S., Johnson, Catherine O., Jonas, Jost B., Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy, Jungari, Suresh Banayya, Jürisson, Mikk, Kabir, Zubair, Kadel, Rajendra, Kahsay, Amaha, Kalani, Rizwan, Kanchan, Tanuj, Karami, Manoochehr, Karami Matin, Behzad, Karch, André, Karema, Corine, Karimi, Narges, Karimi, Seyed M., Kasaeian, Amir, Kassa, Dessalegn H., Kassa, Getachew Mullu, Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale, Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Kawakami, Norito, Karyani, Ali Kazemi, Keighobadi, Masoud Masoud, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Kemmer, Laura, Kemp, Grant Rodgers, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khafaei, Behzad, Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif, Khajavi, Alireza, Khalil, Ibrahim A., Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb, Khan, Muhammad Ali, Khang, Young-Ho, Khazaei, Mohammad, Khoja, Abdullah T., Khosravi, Ardeshir, Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A., Kiirithio, Daniel N., Kim, Cho-Il, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Pauline, Kim, Young-Eun, Kim, Yun Jin, Kimokoti, Ruth W., Kinfu, Yohannes, Kisa, Adnan, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna, Kivimäki, Mika, Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo, Kocarnik, Jonathan M., Kochhar, Sonali, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kolola, Tufa, Kopec, Jacek A., Kosen, Soewarta, Kotsakis, Georgios A., Koul, Parvaiz A., Koyanagi, Ai, Kravchenko, Michael A., Krishan, Kewal, Krohn, Kristopher J., Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kucuk Bicer, Burcu, Kumar, G. Anil, Kumar, Manasi, Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe, Lad, Deepesh P., Lad, Sheetal D., Lafranconi, Alessandra, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lallukka, Tea, Lami, Faris Hasan, Lansingh, Van C., Latifi, Arman, Lau, Kathryn Mei-Ming, Lazarus, Jeffrey V., Leasher, Janet L., Ledesma, Jorge R., Lee, Paul H., Leigh, James, Leung, Janni, Levi, Miriam, Lewycka, Sonia, Li, Shanshan, Li, Yichong, Liao, Yu, Liben, Misgan Legesse, Lim, Lee-Ling, Lim, Stephen S., Liu, Shiwei, Lodha, Rakesh, Looker, Katharine J., Lopez, Alan D., Lorkowski, Stefan, Lotufo, Paulo A., Low, Nicola, Lozano, Rafael, Lucas, Tim C. D., Lucchesi, Lydia R., Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A., Ma, Stefan, Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King, Mackay, Mark T., Madotto, Fabiana, Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan, Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed, Maghavani, Dhaval P., Mahotra, Narayan Bahadur, Mai, Hue Thi, Majdan, Marek, Majdzadeh, Reza, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Mamun, Abdullah A., Manda, Ana-Laura, Manguerra, Helena, Manhertz, Treh, Mansournia, Mohammad Ali, Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni, Mapoma, Chabila Christopher, Maravilla, Joemer C., Marcenes, Wagner, Marks, Ashley, Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio, Martopullo, Ira, März, Winfried, Marzan, Melvin B., Mashamba-Thompson, Tivani Phosa, Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard, Mathur, Manu Raj, Matsushita, Kunihiro, Maulik, Pallab K., Mazidi, Mohsen, McAlinden, Colm, McGrath, John J., McKee, Martin, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mehrotra, Ravi, Mehta, Kala M., Mehta, Varshil, Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola, Mekonen, Tesfa, Melese, Addisu, Melku, Mulugeta, Meltzer, Michele, Memiah, Peter T. N., Memish, Ziad A., Mendoza, Walter, Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese, Mengistu, Getnet, Mensah, George A., Mereta, Seid Tiku, Meretoja, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J., Mestrovic, Tomislav, Mezerji, Naser Mohammad Gholi, Miazgowski, Bartosz, Miazgowski, Tomasz, Millear, Anoushka I., Miller, Ted R., Miltz, Benjamin, Mini, G. K., Mirarefin, Mojde, Mirrakhimov, Erkin M., Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen, Mitchell, Philip B., Mitiku, Habtamu, Moazen, Babak, Mohajer, Bahram, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mohammadifard, Noushin, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, Mousa, Mohammed, Mohammed A., Mohammed, Shafiu, Mohebi, Farnam, Moitra, Modhurima, Mokdad, Ali H., Molokhia, Mariam, Monasta, Lorenzo, Moodley, Yoshan, Moosazadeh, Mahmood, Moradi, Ghobad, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moradinazar, Mehdi, Moraga, Paula, Morawska, Lidia, Moreno Velásquez, Ilais, Morgado-Da-Costa, Joana, Morrison, Shane Douglas, Moschos, Marilita M., Mountjoy-Venning, W. Cliff, Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam, Mruts, Kalayu Brhane, Muche, Achenef Asmamaw, Muchie, Kindie Fentahun, Mueller, Ulrich Otto, Muhammed, Oumer Sada, Mukhopadhyay, Satinath, Muller, Kate, Mumford, John Everett, Murhekar, Manoj, Musa, Jonah, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Mustafa, Ghulam, Nabhan, Ashraf F., Nagata, Chie, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naheed, Aliya, Nahvijou, Azin, Naik, Gurudatta, Naik, Nitish, Najafi, Farid, Naldi, Luigi, Nam, Hae Sung, Nangia, Vinay, Nansseu, Jobert Richie, Nascimento, Bruno Ramos, Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan, Neamati, Nahid, Negoi, Ionut, Negoi, Ruxandra Irina, Neupane, Subas, Newton, Charles Richard James, Ngunjiri, Josephine W., Nguyen, Anh Quynh, Nguyen, Ha Thu, Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi, Nguyen, Huong Thanh, Nguyen, Long Hoang, Nguyen, Minh, Nguyen, Nam Ba, Nguyen, Son Hoang, Nichols, Emma, Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Nixon, Molly R., Nolutshungu, Nomonde, Nomura, Shuhei, Norheim, Ole F., Noroozi, Mehdi, Norrving, Bo, Noubiap, Jean Jacques, Nouri, Hamid Reza, Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Malihe, Nowroozi, Mohammad Reza, Nsoesie, Elaine O., Nyasulu, Peter S., Odell, Christopher M., Ofori-Asenso, Richard, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In-Hwan, Oladimeji, Olanrewaju, Olagunju, Andrew T., Olagunju, Tinuke O., Olivares, Pedro R., Olsen, Helen Elizabeth, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Ong, Kanyin L., Ong, Sok King, Oren, Eyal, Ortiz, Alberto, Ota, Erika, Otstavnov, Stanislav S., Øverland, Simon, Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo, P A, Mahesh, Pacella, Rosana, Pakpour, Amir H., Pana, Adrian, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Parisi, Andrea, Park, Eun-Kee, Parry, Charles D. 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William M, Gebre, Abadi Kahsu, Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay, Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo, Gelano, Tilayie Feto, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Genova-Maleras, Ricard, Geramo, Yilma Chisha Dea, Gething, Peter W, Gezae, Kebede Embaye, Ghadiri, Keyghobad, Ghasemi Falavarjani, Khalil, Ghasemi-Kasman, Maryam, Ghimire, Mamata, Ghosh, Rakesh, Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal, Giampaoli, Simona, Gill, Paramjit Singh, Gill, Tiffany K, Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageed, Giussani, Giorgia, Gnedovskaya, Elena V, Goldberg, Ellen M, Goli, Sriniva, Gómez-Dantés, Hector, Gona, Philimon N, Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Gorman, Taren M, Goulart, Alessandra C, Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia, Grada, Ayman, Grams, Morgan E, Grosso, Giuseppe, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Guo, Yuming, Gupta, Prakash C, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Tanush, Gyawali, Bishal, Haagsma, Juanita A, Hachinski, Vladimir, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan, Hagos, Tekleberhan B, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin, Haj-Mirzaian, Arya, Hamadeh, Randah R, Hamidi, Samer, Handal, Alexis J, Hankey, Graeme J, Hao, Yuantao, Harb, Hilda L, Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai, Haro, Josep Maria, Hasan, Mehedi, Hassankhani, Hadi, Hassen, Hamid Yimam, Havmoeller, Rasmu, Hawley, Caitlin N, Hay, Roderick J, Hay, Simon I, Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Akbar, Heibati, Behzad, Hendrie, Delia, Henok, Andualem, Herteliu, Claudiu, Heydarpour, Sousan, Hibstu, Desalegn Tsegaw, Hoang, Huong Thanh, Hoek, Hans W, Hoffman, Howard J, Hole, Michael K, Homaie Rad, Enayatollah, Hoogar, Praveen, Hosgood, H Dean, Hosseini, Seyed Mostafa, Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi, Hostiuc, Mihaela, Hostiuc, Sorin, Hotez, Peter J, Hoy, Damian G, Hsairi, Mohamed, Htet, Aung Soe, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, John J, Huynh, Chantal K, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Ikeda, Chad Thoma, Ileanu, Bogdan, Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen, Iqbal, Usman, Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi, Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Islami, Farhad, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jahangiry, Leila, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jain, Sudhir Kumar, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo, Javanbakht, Mehdi, Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jha, Ravi Prakash, Jha, Vivekanand, Ji, John S, Johnson, Catherine O, Jonas, Jost B, Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy, Jungari, Suresh Banayya, Jürisson, Mikk, Kabir, Zubair, Kadel, Rajendra, Kahsay, Amaha, Kalani, Rizwan, Kanchan, Tanuj, Karami, Manoochehr, Karami Matin, Behzad, Karch, André, Karema, Corine, Karimi, Narge, Karimi, Seyed M, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassa, Dessalegn H, Kassa, Getachew Mullu, Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Kawakami, Norito, Karyani, Ali Kazemi, Keighobadi, Masoud Masoud, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Kemmer, Laura, Kemp, Grant Rodger, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khafaei, Behzad, Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif, Khajavi, Alireza, Khalil, Ibrahim A, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb, Khan, Muhammad Ali, Khang, Young-Ho, Khazaei, Mohammad, Khoja, Abdullah T, Khosravi, Ardeshir, Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A, Kiirithio, Daniel N, Kim, Cho-Il, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Pauline, Kim, Young-Eun, Kim, Yun Jin, Kimokoti, Ruth W, Kinfu, Yohanne, Kisa, Adnan, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna, Kivimäki, Mika, Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo, Kocarnik, Jonathan M, Kochhar, Sonali, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kolola, Tufa, Kopec, Jacek A, Kosen, Soewarta, Kotsakis, Georgios A, Koul, Parvaiz A, Koyanagi, Ai, Kravchenko, Michael A, Krishan, Kewal, Krohn, Kristopher J, Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kucuk Bicer, Burcu, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Manasi, Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe, Lad, Deepesh P, Lad, Sheetal D, Lafranconi, Alessandra, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lallukka, Tea, Lami, Faris Hasan, Lansingh, Van C, Latifi, Arman, Lau, Kathryn Mei-Ming, Lazarus, Jeffrey V, Leasher, Janet L, Ledesma, Jorge R, Lee, Paul H, Leigh, Jame, Leung, Janni, Levi, Miriam, Lewycka, Sonia, Li, Shanshan, Li, Yichong, Liao, Yu, Liben, Misgan Legesse, Lim, Lee-Ling, Lim, Stephen S, Liu, Shiwei, Lodha, Rakesh, Looker, Katharine J, Lopez, Alan D, Lorkowski, Stefan, Lotufo, Paulo A, Low, Nicola, Lozano, Rafael, Lucas, Tim C D, Lucchesi, Lydia R, Lunevicius, Raimunda, Lyons, Ronan A, Ma, Stefan, Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King, Mackay, Mark T, Madotto, Fabiana, Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan, Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed, Maghavani, Dhaval P, Mahotra, Narayan Bahadur, Mai, Hue Thi, Majdan, Marek, Majdzadeh, Reza, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Mamun, Abdullah A, Manda, Ana-Laura, Manguerra, Helena, Manhertz, Treh, Mansournia, Mohammad Ali, Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni, Mapoma, Chabila Christopher, Maravilla, Joemer C, Marcenes, Wagner, Marks, Ashley, Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio, Martopullo, Ira, März, Winfried, Marzan, Melvin B, Mashamba-Thompson, Tivani Phosa, Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard, Mathur, Manu Raj, Matsushita, Kunihiro, Maulik, Pallab K, Mazidi, Mohsen, McAlinden, Colm, McGrath, John J, McKee, Martin, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mehrotra, Ravi, Mehta, Kala M, Mehta, Varshil, Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola, Mekonen, Tesfa, Melese, Addisu, Melku, Mulugeta, Meltzer, Michele, Memiah, Peter T N, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese, Mengistu, Getnet, Mensah, George A, Mereta, Seid Tiku, Meretoja, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J, Mestrovic, Tomislav, Mezerji, Naser Mohammad Gholi, Miazgowski, Bartosz, Miazgowski, Tomasz, Millear, Anoushka I, Miller, Ted R, Miltz, Benjamin, Mini, G.K., Mirarefin, Mojde, Mirrakhimov, Erkin M, Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen, Mitchell, Philip B, Mitiku, Habtamu, Moazen, Babak, Mohajer, Bahram, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mohammadifard, Noushin, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, Mousa, Mohammed, Mohammed A, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mohebi, Farnam, Moitra, Modhurima, Mokdad, Ali H, Molokhia, Mariam, Monasta, Lorenzo, Moodley, Yoshan, Moosazadeh, Mahmood, Moradi, Ghobad, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moradinazar, Mehdi, Moraga, Paula, Morawska, Lidia, Moreno Velásquez, Ilai, Morgado-Da-Costa, Joana, Morrison, Shane Dougla, Moschos, Marilita M, Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam, Mruts, Kalayu Brhane, Muche, Achenef Asmamaw, Muchie, Kindie Fentahun, Mueller, Ulrich Otto, Muhammed, Oumer Sada, Mukhopadhyay, Satinath, Muller, Kate, Mumford, John Everett, Murhekar, Manoj, Musa, Jonah, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Mustafa, Ghulam, Nabhan, Ashraf F, Nagata, Chie, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naheed, Aliya, Nahvijou, Azin, Naik, Gurudatta, Naik, Nitish, Najafi, Farid, Naldi, Luigi, Nam, Hae Sung, Nangia, Vinay, Nansseu, Jobert Richie, Nascimento, Bruno Ramo, Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan, Neamati, Nahid, Negoi, Ionut, Negoi, Ruxandra Irina, Neupane, Suba, Newton, Charles Richard Jame, Ngunjiri, Josephine W, Nguyen, Anh Quynh, Nguyen, Ha Thu, Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi, Nguyen, Huong Thanh, Nguyen, Long Hoang, Nguyen, Minh, Nguyen, Nam Ba, Nguyen, Son Hoang, Nichols, Emma, Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Nixon, Molly R, Nolutshungu, Nomonde, Nomura, Shuhei, Norheim, Ole F, Noroozi, Mehdi, Norrving, Bo, Noubiap, Jean Jacque, Nouri, Hamid Reza, Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Malihe, Nowroozi, Mohammad Reza, Nsoesie, Elaine O, Nyasulu, Peter S, Odell, Christopher M, Ofori-Asenso, Richard, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In-Hwan, Oladimeji, Olanrewaju, Olagunju, Andrew T, Olagunju, Tinuke O, Olivares, Pedro R, Olsen, Helen Elizabeth, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Ong, Kanyin L, Ong, Sok King, Oren, Eyal, Ortiz, Alberto, Ota, Erika, Otstavnov, Stanislav S, Øverland, Simon, Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo, P A, Mahesh, Pacella, Rosana, Pakpour, Amir H, Pana, Adrian, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Parisi, Andrea, Park, Eun-Kee, Parry, Charles D H, Patel, Shanti, Pati, Sanghamitra, Patil, Snehal T, Patle, Ajay, Patton, George C, Paturi, Vishnupriya Rao, Paulson, Katherine R, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, David M, Perico, Norberto, Pesudovs, Konrad, Pham, Hai Quang, Phillips, Michael R, Pigott, David M, Pillay, Julian David, Piradov, Michael A, Pirsaheb, Meghdad, Pishgar, Farhad, Plana-Ripoll, Oleguer, Plass, Dietrich, Polinder, Suzanne, Popova, Svetlana, Postma, Maarten J, Pourshams, Akram, Poustchi, Hossein, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Prakash, Swayam, Prakash, V., Purcell, Caroline A, Purwar, Manorama B, Qorbani, Mostafa, Quistberg, D Alex, Radfar, Amir, Rafay, Anwar, Rafiei, Alireza, Rahim, Fakher, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz ur, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rajati, Fatemeh, Ram, Usha, Ranjan, Prabhat, Ranta, Anna, Rao, Puja C, Rawaf, David Laith, Rawaf, Salman, Reddy, K Srinath, Reiner, Robert C, Reinig, Nickola, Reitsma, Marissa Bettay, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Renzaho, Andre M N, Resnikoff, Serge, Rezaei, Satar, Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh, Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P, Robinson, Stephen R, Roever, Leonardo, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Rostami, Ali, Roth, Gregory A, Roy, Ambuj, Rubagotti, Enrico, Sachdev, Perminder S, Sadat, Nafi, Saddik, Basema, Sadeghi, Ehsan, Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar, Safari, Hosein, Safari, Yahya, Safari-Faramani, Roya, Safdarian, Mahdi, Safi, Sare, Safiri, Saeid, Sagar, Rajesh, Sahebkar, Amirhossein, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sajadi, Haniye Sadat, Salam, Nasir, Salama, Joseph S, Salamati, Payman, Saleem, Komal, Saleem, Zikria, Salimi, Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A, Salvi, Sundeep Santosh, Salz, Inbal, Samy, Abdallah M, Sanabria, Juan, Sang, Yingying, Santomauro, Damian Francesco, Santos, Itamar S, Santos, João Vasco, Santric Milicevic, Milena M, Sao Jose, Bruno Piassi, Sardana, Mayank, Sarker, Abdur Razzaque, Sarrafzadegan, Nizal, Sartorius, Benn, Sarvi, Shahabeddin, Sathian, Brijesh, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawant, Arundhati R, Sawhney, Monika, Saxena, Sonia, Saylan, Mete, Schaeffner, Elke, Schmidt, Maria Inê, Schneider, Ione J C, Schöttker, Ben, Schwebel, David C, Schwendicke, Falk, Scott, James G, Sekerija, Mario, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Serván-Mori, Edson, Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba, Shabaninejad, Hosein, Shafieesabet, Azadeh, Shahbazi, Mehdi, Shaheen, Amira A, Shaikh, Masood Ali, Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran, Shamsi, Mohammadbagher, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Sharafi, Heidar, Sharafi, Kiomar, Sharif, Mehdi, Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi, Sharma, Meenakshi, Sharma, Rajesh, She, Jun, Sheikh, Aziz, Shi, Peilin, Shibuya, Kenji, Shigematsu, Mika, Shiri, Rahman, Shirkoohi, Reza, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Shokraneh, Farhad, Shoman, Haitham, Shrime, Mark G, Si, Si, Siabani, Soraya, Siddiqi, Tariq J, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig, Silva, João Pedro, Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alve, Singam, Narayana Sarma Venkata, Singh, Jasvinder A, Singh, Narinder Pal, Singh, Virendra, Sinha, Dhirendra Narain, Skiadaresi, Eirini, Slepak, Erica Leigh N, Sliwa, Karen, Smith, David L, Smith, Mari, Soares Filho, Adauto Martin, Sobaih, Badr Hasan, Sobhani, Soheila, Sobngwi, Eugène, Soneji, Samir S, Soofi, Moslem, Soosaraei, Masoud, Sorensen, Reed J D, Soriano, Joan B, Soyiri, Ireneous N, Sposato, Luciano A, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Srinivasan, Vinay, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Stein, Dan J, Steiner, Caitlyn, Steiner, Timothy J, Stokes, Mark A, Stovner, Lars Jacob, Subart, Michelle L, Sudaryanto, Agu, Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale, Sunguya, Bruno F, Sur, Patrick John, Sutradhar, Ipsita, Sykes, Bryan L, Sylte, Dillon O, Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Tadesse, Birkneh Tilahun, Tandon, Nikhil, Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taveira, Nuno, Taylor, Hugh R, Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash, Tekalign, Tigist Gashaw, Tekelemedhin, Shishay Wahdey, Tekle, Merhawi Gebremedhin, Temesgen, Habtamu, Temsah, Mohamad-Hani, Temsah, Omar, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Teweldemedhin, Mebrahtu, Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Thomas, Nihal, Tilahun, Binyam, To, Quyen G, Tonelli, Marcello, Topor-Madry, Roman, Topouzis, Foti, Torre, Anna E, Tortajada-Girbés, Miguel, Touvier, Mathilde, Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto, Towbin, Jeffrey A, Tran, Bach Xuan, Tran, Khanh Bao, Troeger, Christopher E, Truelsen, Thomas Clement, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis K, Tsoi, Derrick, Tudor Car, Lorainne, Tuzcu, E Murat, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Ullah, Irfan, Undurraga, Eduardo A, Unutzer, Jurgen, Updike, Rachel L, Usman, Muhammad Shariq, Uthman, Olalekan A, Vaduganathan, Muthiah, Vaezi, Afsane, Valdez, Pascual R, Varughese, Santosh, Vasankari, Tommi Juhani, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Villafaina, Santo, Violante, Francesco S, Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch, Vlassov, Vasily, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vosoughi, Kia, Vujcic, Isidora S, Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw, Waheed, Yasir, Waller, Stephen G, Wang, Yafeng, Wang, Yuan-Pang, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Weiss, Daniel J, Weldegebreal, Fitsum, Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey, Werdecker, Andrea, West, T Eoin, Whiteford, Harvey A, Widecka, Justyna, Wijeratne, Tissa, Wilner, Lauren B, Wilson, Shadrach, Winkler, Andrea Sylvia, Wiyeh, Alison B, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Wolfe, Charles D A, Woolf, Anthony D, Wu, Shouling, Wu, Yun-Chun, Wyper, Grant M A, Xavier, Deni, Xu, Gelin, Yadgir, Simon, Yadollahpour, Ali, Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein, Yamada, Tomohide, Yan, Lijing L, Yano, Yuichiro, Yaseri, Mehdi, Yasin, Yasin Jemal, Yeshaneh, Alex, Yimer, Ebrahim M, Yip, Paul, Yisma, Engida, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Yotebieng, Marcel, Younis, Mustafa Z, Yousefifard, Mahmoud, Yu, Chuanhua, Zadnik, Vesna, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zaman, Sojib Bin, Zamani, Mohammad, Zare, Zohreh, Zeleke, Ayalew Jejaw, Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew, Zhang, Kai, Zhao, Zheng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zodpey, Sanjay, Zucker, Inbar, Vos, Theo, and Murray, Christopher J L
Subjects: YLDs, global burden of disease, General & Internal Medicine, Medicine (all), prevalence, incidence, Human medicine, global burden of disease, YLDs, incidence, prevalence, GBD, years lived with disability
Abstract: Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 39% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3.1-4. 6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7.2% (6.0-8.4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7.9% (6 6-9. 2) for males and 6.5% (5.4-7.7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-hatin and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Published: 2018

16. Trends in State-Level Maternal Mortality by Racial and Ethnic Group in the United States.

Author: Fleszar LG, Bryant AS, Johnson CO, Blacker BF, Aravkin A, Baumann M, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Kelly YO, Maass K, Zheng P, and Roth GA
Subjects: Female, Humans, Pregnancy, Bayes Theorem, Ethnicity statistics & numerical data, Racial Groups ethnology, Racial Groups statistics & numerical data, United States epidemiology, Child, Adolescent, Young Adult, Adult, Middle Aged, Maternal Mortality ethnology, Maternal Mortality trends
Abstract: Importance: Evidence suggests that maternal mortality has been increasing in the US. Comprehensive estimates do not exist. Long-term trends in maternal mortality ratios (MMRs) for all states by racial and ethnic groups were estimated., Objective: To quantify trends in MMRs (maternal deaths per 100 000 live births) by state for 5 mutually exclusive racial and ethnic groups using a bayesian extension of the generalized linear model network., Design, Setting, and Participants: Observational study using vital registration and census data from 1999 to 2019 in the US. Pregnant or recently pregnant individuals aged 10 to 54 years were included., Main Outcomes and Measures: MMRs., Results: In 2019, MMRs in most states were higher among American Indian and Alaska Native and Black populations than among Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander; Hispanic; and White populations. Between 1999 and 2019, observed median state MMRs increased from 14.0 (IQR, 5.7-23.9) to 49.2 (IQR, 14.4-88.0) among the American Indian and Alaska Native population, 26.7 (IQR, 18.3-32.9) to 55.4 (IQR, 31.6-74.5) among the Black population, 9.6 (IQR, 5.7-12.6) to 20.9 (IQR, 12.1-32.8) among the Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander population, 9.6 (IQR, 6.9-11.6) to 19.1 (IQR, 11.6-24.9) among the Hispanic population, and 9.4 (IQR, 7.4-11.4) to 26.3 (IQR, 20.3-33.3) among the White population. In each year between 1999 and 2019, the Black population had the highest median state MMR. The American Indian and Alaska Native population had the largest increases in median state MMRs between 1999 and 2019. Since 1999, the median of state MMRs has increased for all racial and ethnic groups in the US and the American Indian and Alaska Native; Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander; and Black populations each observed their highest median state MMRs in 2019., Conclusion and Relevance: While maternal mortality remains unacceptably high among all racial and ethnic groups in the US, American Indian and Alaska Native and Black individuals are at increased risk, particularly in several states where these inequities had not been previously highlighted. Median state MMRs for the American Indian and Alaska Native and Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander populations continue to increase, even after the adoption of a pregnancy checkbox on death certificates. Median state MMR for the Black population remains the highest in the US. Comprehensive mortality surveillance for all states via vital registration identifies states and racial and ethnic groups with the greatest potential to improve maternal mortality. Maternal mortality persists as a source of worsening disparities in many US states and prevention efforts during this study period appear to have had a limited impact in addressing this health crisis.
Published: 2023
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17. State-Level Cardiovascular Mortality Rates Among Hispanic, Non-Hispanic Black, and Non-Hispanic White Populations, 1990 to 2019.

Author: Johnson CO, DeCleene NK, Blacker BF, Cunningham MW, Aravkin A, Dieleman JL, Gakidou E, Naghavi M, Ogunniyi MO, Zheng P, and Roth GA
Subjects: Female, Humans, Male, Cross-Sectional Studies, Hispanic or Latino, White, Black or African American, Cardiovascular Diseases mortality, Ethnicity
Abstract: Importance: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the US, with considerable variation by both state and race and ethnicity group. Consistent, comparable measures of mortality by specific CVD cause at the state level and by race and ethnicity have not previously been available and are necessary for supporting policy decisions aimed at reducing health inequities., Objective: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality due to overall CVD and its component causes for 3 mutually exclusive race and ethnicity groups and by state., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used Census data, population surveys, and US vital registration records to estimate cause-specific cardiovascular mortality by state and by the following race and ethnicity groups, defined by the US Office of Management and Budget: Hispanic of any race, non-Hispanic Black (hereafter, Black), and non-Hispanic White (hereafter, White). Data were analyzed from January 2020 to September 2022., Exposures: State of residence at time of death; Hispanic ethnicity and Black or White race., Main Outcomes and Measures: CVD death counts and mortality rates., Results: An estimated 25 397 029 persons died of cardiovascular diseases from 1990 to 2019. The mean (SD) age of individuals was 78.20 (14.01); 13 087 290 individuals (51.53%) were female and 12 309 739 (48.47%) were male; 2 921 650 (11.50%) were Black, 1 159 498 (4.57%) were Hispanic, and 21 315 880 (83.93%) were White. Age-standardized CVD mortality per 100 000 persons in 2019 was 194.4 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 172.7 to 207.4), 107.7 (95% UI, 92.9 to 121.4), and 153.8 (95% UI, 133.8 to 163.8) among Black, Hispanic, and White populations, respectively. The median (IQR) percentage change across states was smaller for 2010 to 2019 compared with 1990 to 2000 for both White female and White male populations (-6.8 [-10.1 to -4.3] vs -10.2 [-12.9 to -5.9] and -4.6 [-8.6 to -2.5] vs -16.5 [-19.3 to -15.4]). For the Black and Hispanic groups, the percentage change (IQR) was larger for the female populations for the latter time period (-15.1 [-18.9 to -11.7] vs -12.6 [-19.6 to -7.8] and -23.5 [-29.2 to -18.5] vs -8.2 [-17.8 to 5.96]). The converse was observed among male individuals in both groups, with smaller percentage change (IQR) values in 2010 to 2019 compared with 1990 to 2000 (-13.1 [-18.7 to -8.6] vs -18.6 [-25.5 to -14.7] among the Black male population and -20.4 [-25.6 to -15.6] vs -21.5 [-31.1 to -5.7] among the Hispanic male population). There was substantial variability at the state level for death due to total CVD and component causes in 2019 and changes in CVD mortality from 1990 through 2019., Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study indicate that CVD mortality varied widely by state and race and ethnicity group. Changes over the time period were not consistent for all groups and varied by cardiovascular subcause. These results highlight ongoing health disparities in cardiovascular mortality.
Published: 2023
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18. Life Expectancy for White, Black, and Hispanic Race/Ethnicity in U.S. States: Trends and Disparities, 1990 to 2019.

Author: Johnson CO, Boon-Dooley AS, DeCleene NK, Henny KF, Blacker BF, Anderson JA, Afshin A, Aravkin A, Cunningham MW, Dieleman JL, Feldman RG, Gakidou E, Mokdad AH, Naghavi M, Spencer CN, Whisnant JL, York HW, Zende RR, Zheng P, Murray CJL, and Roth GA
Subjects: Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Hispanic or Latino, Humans, Infant, Newborn, Life Expectancy, Male, United States epidemiology, Black or African American, Ethnicity
Abstract: Background: Life expectancy (LE) differences within and between states by race/ethnicity have not been examined., Objective: To estimate LE for selected race/ethnicity groups in states from 1990 to 2019., Design: Cross-sectional time-series analysis., Setting: United States., Participants: Deidentified death records and Census data were used to construct regression models with smoothed time series of mortality from 1990 to 2019., Measurements: LE at birth, by sex and year, for subgroups of people reporting Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, or non-Hispanic White race/ethnicity., Results: Disparities in LE across states were 8.0 years for females and 12.2 years for males in 1990 and 7.9 years for females and 7.8 years for males in 2019. When race/ethnicity groups were accounted for, disparities across states were 20.7 years for females and 24.5 years for males in 1990, decreasing to 18.5 years for females and 23.7 years for males in 2019. Disparities across states increased within each race/ethnicity group between 1990 and 2019, with the largest increase for non-Hispanic White males and the smallest for Hispanic females. The disparity between race/ethnicity groups within states decreased for most of the 23 states with estimates for all 3 groups but increased for females in 7 states and males in 5 states., Limitation: Because of small sample size, LE was not estimated for 37 of 153 state-race/ethnicity groups., Conclusion: Disparity in LE across states was greater when race/ethnicity groups were considered. Disparities across all state-race/ethnicity groups in general have decreased over the past 3 decades. Within each race/ethnicity group, disparities across states have increased. Although racial/ethnic disparities decreased in most of the 23 states for which LE was estimated for all 3 groups, they increased for females in 7 states and males in 5 states., Primary Funding Source: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.
Published: 2022
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19. Finding gaps in routine TB surveillance activities in Bangladesh.

Author: Allorant A, Biswas S, Ahmed S, Wiens KE, LeGrand KE, Janko MM, Henry NJ, Dangel WJ, Watson A, Blacker BF, Kyu HH, Ross JM, Rahman MS, Hay SI, and Reiner RC
Subjects: Bangladesh epidemiology, Bayes Theorem, Cross-Sectional Studies, Humans, Prevalence, Tuberculosis diagnosis, Tuberculosis epidemiology, Tuberculosis prevention & control
Abstract: BACKGROUND: TB was the leading cause of death from a single infectious pathogen globally between 2014 and 2019. Fine-scale estimates of TB prevalence and case notifications can be combined to guide priority-setting for strengthening routine surveillance activities in high-burden countries. We produce policy-relevant estimates of the TB epidemic at the second administrative unit in Bangladesh. METHODS: We used a Bayesian spatial framework and the cross-sectional National TB Prevalence Survey from 2015-2016 in Bangladesh to estimate prevalence by district. We used case notifications to calculate prevalence-to-notification ratio, a key metric of under-diagnosis and under-reporting. RESULTS: TB prevalence rates were highest in the north-eastern districts and ranged from 160 cases per 100,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 80-310) in Jashore to 840 (UI 690-1020) in Sunamganj. Despite moderate prevalence rates, the Rajshahi and Dhaka Divisions presented the highest prevalence-to-notification ratios due to low case notifications. Resolving subnational disparities in case detection could lead to 26,500 additional TB cases (UI 8,500-79,400) notified every year. CONCLUSION: This study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of TB prevalence and prevalence-to-notification ratios, which are essential to target prevention and treatment efforts in high-burden settings. Reaching TB cases currently missing from care will be key to ending the TB epidemic.
Published: 2022
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20. Oral rehydration therapies in Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone: a spatial analysis of changes over time and implications for policy.

Author: Wiens KE, Schaeffer LE, Sow SO, Ndoye B, Cain CJ, Baumann MM, Johnson KB, Lindstedt PA, Blacker BF, Bhutta ZA, Cormier NM, Daoud F, Earl L, Farag T, Khalil IA, Kinyoki DK, Larson HJ, LeGrand KE, Cook AJ, Malta DC, Månsson JC, Mayala BK, Mokdad AH, Ogbuanu IU, Sankoh O, Sartorius B, Topor-Madry R, Troeger CE, Welgan CA, Werdecker A, Hay SI, and Reiner RC Jr
Subjects: Administration, Oral, Bicarbonates therapeutic use, Child, Child Mortality history, Child Mortality trends, Child, Preschool, Diarrhea epidemiology, Female, Glucose therapeutic use, Health Policy history, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century, Humans, Infant, Male, Mali epidemiology, Potassium Chloride therapeutic use, Senegal epidemiology, Severity of Illness Index, Sierra Leone epidemiology, Sodium Chloride therapeutic use, Spatial Analysis, Time Factors, Treatment Outcome, Diarrhea therapy, Fluid Therapy history, Fluid Therapy methods, Fluid Therapy statistics & numerical data, Fluid Therapy trends, Health Policy trends
Abstract: Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a simple intervention that can prevent childhood deaths from severe diarrhea and dehydration. In a previous study, we mapped the use of ORS treatment subnationally and found that ORS coverage increased over time, while the use of home-made alternatives or recommended home fluids (RHF) decreased, in many countries. These patterns were particularly striking within Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone. It was unclear, however, whether ORS replaced RHF in these locations or if children were left untreated, and if these patterns were associated with health policy changes., Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from household surveys to map the percentage of children with diarrhea that received (1) any ORS, (2) only RHF, or (3) no oral rehydration treatment between 2000 and 2018. This approach allowed examination of whether RHF was replaced with ORS before and after interventions, policies, and external events that may have impacted healthcare access., Results: We found that RHF was replaced with ORS in most Sierra Leone districts, except those most impacted by the Ebola outbreak. In addition, RHF was replaced in northern but not in southern Mali, and RHF was not replaced anywhere in Senegal. In Senegal, there was no statistical evidence that a national policy promoting ORS use was associated with increases in coverage. In Sierra Leone, ORS coverage increased following a national policy change that abolished health costs for children., Conclusions: Children in parts of Mali and Senegal have been left behind during ORS scale-up. Improved messaging on effective diarrhea treatment and/or increased ORS access such as through reducing treatment costs may be needed to prevent child deaths in these areas.
Published: 2020
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21. Identifying residual hotspots and mapping lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality in African children from 2000 to 2017.

Author: Reiner RC, Welgan CA, Casey DC, Troeger CE, Baumann MM, Nguyen QP, Swartz SJ, Blacker BF, Deshpande A, Mosser JF, Osgood-Zimmerman AE, Earl L, Marczak LB, Munro SB, Miller-Petrie MK, Rodgers Kemp G, Frostad J, Wiens KE, Lindstedt PA, Pigott DM, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Ross JM, Burstein R, Graetz N, Rao PC, Khalil IA, Davis Weaver N, Ray SE, Davis I, Farag T, Brady OJ, Kraemer MUG, Smith DL, Bhatt S, Weiss DJ, Gething PW, Kassebaum NJ, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, and Hay SI
Subjects: Africa epidemiology, Bayes Theorem, Child, Preschool, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Prevalence, Public Health standards, Risk Factors, Morbidity, Respiratory Tract Infections mortality
Abstract: Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are the leading cause of death in children under the age of 5, despite the existence of vaccines against many of their aetiologies. Furthermore, more than half of these deaths occur in Africa. Geospatial models can provide highly detailed estimates of trends subnationally, at the level where implementation of health policies has the greatest impact. We used Bayesian geostatistical modelling to estimate LRI incidence, prevalence and mortality in children under 5 subnationally in Africa for 2000-2017, using surveys covering 1.46 million children and 9,215,000 cases of LRI. Our model reveals large within-country variation in both health burden and its change over time. While reductions in childhood morbidity and mortality due to LRI were estimated for almost every country, we expose a cluster of residual high risk across seven countries, which averages 5.5 LRI deaths per 1,000 children per year. The preventable nature of the vast majority of LRI deaths mandates focused health system efforts in specific locations with the highest burden.
Published: 2019
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22. Capturing the true burden of Shigella and ETEC: The way forward.

Author: Khalil I, Troeger CE, Blacker BF, and Reiner RC Jr
Subjects: Child, Child, Preschool, Congresses as Topic, Diarrhea epidemiology, Diarrhea immunology, Diarrhea mortality, Dysentery, Bacillary epidemiology, Dysentery, Bacillary immunology, Dysentery, Bacillary mortality, Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli drug effects, Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli pathogenicity, Escherichia coli Infections epidemiology, Escherichia coli Infections immunology, Escherichia coli Infections mortality, Escherichia coli Vaccines biosynthesis, Humans, Immunization methods, Models, Statistical, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Shigella drug effects, Shigella pathogenicity, Shigella Vaccines biosynthesis, Survival Analysis, Diarrhea prevention & control, Dysentery, Bacillary prevention & control, Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli immunology, Escherichia coli Infections prevention & control, Escherichia coli Vaccines administration & dosage, Shigella immunology, Shigella Vaccines administration & dosage
Abstract: The mortality and morbidity burden estimation of diarrheal diseases (DD), and Shigella and Enterotoxigenic E. Coli (ETEC) varies among different studies and by the models used for producing these estimates. Understanding the real burden of these important pathogens will guide public health and policy makers to prioritize resources for accelerating interventions against these enteric infections. In addition, long term effects, in the form of growth faltering, cognitive impairment and decreased school performance are important aspects of burden that has not been well captured. Efforts to incorporate these effects and refine their estimation, in the form of Disability Adjusted Life years (DALYs) are very important to inform the burden of diarrheal diseases and Shigella and ETEC specifically. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington conducted a workshop at the VASE 2018 meeting to discuss IHME Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) modelling methods for diarrheal diseases, with a focus on ETEC and Shigella estimates in relation to other pathogens, including limitations, areas of improvements, and IHME plans for future GBD iterations., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Published: 2019
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23. Rotavirus Vaccination and the Global Burden of Rotavirus Diarrhea Among Children Younger Than 5 Years.

Author: Troeger C, Khalil IA, Rao PC, Cao S, Blacker BF, Ahmed T, Armah G, Bines JE, Brewer TG, Colombara DV, Kang G, Kirkpatrick BD, Kirkwood CD, Mwenda JM, Parashar UD, Petri WA Jr, Riddle MS, Steele AD, Thompson RL, Walson JL, Sanders JW, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, Hay SI, and Reiner RC Jr
Subjects: Child, Preschool, Cross-Sectional Studies, Diarrhea epidemiology, Diarrhea virology, Female, Global Health, Humans, Incidence, Male, Prognosis, Retrospective Studies, Rotavirus Infections epidemiology, Survival Rate trends, Diarrhea prevention & control, Rotavirus Infections prevention & control, Rotavirus Vaccines pharmacology, Vaccination statistics & numerical data
Abstract: Importance: Rotavirus infection is the global leading cause of diarrhea-associated morbidity and mortality among children younger than 5 years., Objectives: To examine the extent of rotavirus infection among children younger than 5 years by country and the number of deaths averted because of the rotavirus vaccine., Design, Setting, and Participants: This report builds on findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, a cross-sectional study that measured diarrheal diseases and their etiologic agents. Models were used to estimate burden in data-sparse locations., Exposure: Diarrhea due to rotavirus infection., Main Outcomes and Measures: Rotavirus-associated mortality and morbidity by country and year and averted deaths attributable to the rotavirus vaccine by country., Results: Rotavirus infection was responsible for an estimated 128 500 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 104 500-155 600) among children younger than 5 years throughout the world in 2016, with 104 733 deaths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (95% UI, 83 406-128 842). Rotavirus infection was responsible for more than 258 million episodes of diarrhea among children younger than 5 years in 2016 (95% UI, 193 million to 341 million), an incidence of 0.42 cases per child-year (95% UI, 0.30-0.53). Vaccine use is estimated to have averted more than 28 000 deaths (95% UI, 14 600-46 700) among children younger than 5 years, and expanded use of the rotavirus vaccine, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, could have prevented approximately 20% of all deaths attributable to diarrhea among children younger than 5 years., Conclusions and Relevance: Rotavirus-associated mortality has decreased markedly over time in part because of the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine. This study suggests that prioritizing vaccine introduction and interventions to reduce diarrhea-associated morbidity and mortality is necessary in the continued global reduction of rotavirus infection.
Published: 2018
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24. Variation in Childhood Diarrheal Morbidity and Mortality in Africa, 2000-2015.

Author: Reiner RC Jr, Graetz N, Casey DC, Troeger C, Garcia GM, Mosser JF, Deshpande A, Swartz SJ, Ray SE, Blacker BF, Rao PC, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Burstein R, Pigott DM, Davis IM, Letourneau ID, Earl L, Ross JM, Khalil IA, Farag TH, Brady OJ, Kraemer MUG, Smith DL, Bhatt S, Weiss DJ, Gething PW, Kassebaum NJ, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, and Hay SI
Subjects: Africa epidemiology, Bayes Theorem, Child, Preschool, Diarrhea mortality, Geography, Medical, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Mortality trends, Prevalence, Diarrhea epidemiology
Abstract: Background: Diarrheal diseases are the third leading cause of disease and death in children younger than 5 years of age in Africa and were responsible for an estimated 30 million cases of severe diarrhea (95% credible interval, 27 million to 33 million) and 330,000 deaths (95% credible interval, 270,000 to 380,000) in 2015. The development of targeted approaches to address this burden has been hampered by a paucity of comprehensive, fine-scale estimates of diarrhea-related disease and death among and within countries., Methods: We produced annual estimates of the prevalence and incidence of diarrhea and diarrhea-related mortality with high geographic detail (5 km 2 ) across Africa from 2000 through 2015. Estimates were created with the use of Bayesian geostatistical techniques and were calibrated to the results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016., Results: The results revealed geographic inequality with regard to diarrhea risk in Africa. Of the estimated 330,000 childhood deaths that were attributable to diarrhea in 2015, more than 50% occurred in 55 of the 782 first-level administrative subdivisions (e.g., states). In 2015, mortality rates among first-level administrative subdivisions in Nigeria differed by up to a factor of 6. The case fatality rates were highly varied at the national level across Africa, with the highest values observed in Benin, Lesotho, Mali, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone., Conclusions: Our findings showed concentrated areas of diarrheal disease and diarrhea-related death in countries that had a consistently high burden as well as in countries that had considerable national-level reductions in diarrhea burden. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).
Published: 2018
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25. Morbidity, mortality, and long-term consequences associated with diarrhoea from Cryptosporidium infection in children younger than 5 years: a meta-analyses study.

Author: Khalil IA, Troeger C, Rao PC, Blacker BF, Brown A, Brewer TG, Colombara DV, De Hostos EL, Engmann C, Guerrant RL, Haque R, Houpt ER, Kang G, Korpe PS, Kotloff KL, Lima AAM, Petri WA Jr, Platts-Mills JA, Shoultz DA, Forouzanfar MH, Hay SI, Reiner RC Jr, and Mokdad AH
Subjects: Child Development, Child, Preschool, Diarrhea mortality, Global Health statistics & numerical data, Humans, Infant, Cryptosporidiosis epidemiology, Diarrhea complications, Diarrhea epidemiology
Abstract: Background: The protozoan Cryptosporidium is a leading cause of diarrhoea morbidity and mortality in children younger than 5 years. However, the true global burden of Cryptosporidium infection in children younger than 5 years might have been underestimated in previous quantifications because it only took account of the acute effects of diarrhoea. We aimed to demonstrate whether there is a causal relation between Cryptosporidium and childhood growth and, if so, to quantify the associated additional burden., Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) 2016 was a systematic and scientific effort to quantify the morbidity and mortality associated with more than 300 causes of death and disability, including diarrhoea caused by Cryptosporidium infection. We supplemented estimates on the burden of Cryptosporidium in GBD 2016 with findings from a systematic review of published and unpublished cohort studies and a meta-analysis of the effect of childhood diarrhoea caused by Cryptosporidium infection on physical growth., Findings: In 2016, Cryptosporidium infection was the fifth leading diarrhoeal aetiology in children younger than 5 years, and acute infection caused more than 48 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24 600-81 900) and more than 4·2 million disability-adjusted life-years lost (95% UI 2·2 million-7·2 million). We identified seven data sources from the scientific literature and six individual-level data sources describing the relation between Cryptosporidium and childhood growth. Each episode of diarrhoea caused by Cryptosporidium infection was associated with a decrease in height-for-age Z score (0·049, 95% CI 0·014-0·080), weight-for-age Z score (0·095, 0·055-0·134), and weight-for-height Z score (0·126, 0·057-0·194). We estimated that diarrhoea from Cryptosporidium infection caused an additional 7·85 million disability-adjusted life-years (95% UI 5·42 million-10·11 million) after we accounted for its effect on growth faltering-153% more than that estimated from acute effects alone., Interpretation: Our findings show that the substantial short-term burden of diarrhoea from Cryptosporidium infection on childhood growth and wellbeing is an underestimate of the true burden. Interventions designed to prevent and effectively treat infection in children younger than 5 years will have enormous public health and social development impacts., Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Published: 2018
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25 results on '"Blacker BF"'

2. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

3. Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

4. Department of Error: Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2020) 395(10239) (1779–1801)

5. Department of Error.

6. Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

7. Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

8. Mortality, Morbidity, and Hospitalisations Due to Influenza Lower Respiratory Tract Infections, 2017: An Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

9. The global burden of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

10. Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoea in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

11. Morbidity and mortality due to shigella and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli diarrhoea: the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2016

12. Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

13. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

14. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

15. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

16. Trends in State-Level Maternal Mortality by Racial and Ethnic Group in the United States.

17. State-Level Cardiovascular Mortality Rates Among Hispanic, Non-Hispanic Black, and Non-Hispanic White Populations, 1990 to 2019.

18. Life Expectancy for White, Black, and Hispanic Race/Ethnicity in U.S. States: Trends and Disparities, 1990 to 2019.

19. Finding gaps in routine TB surveillance activities in Bangladesh.

20. Oral rehydration therapies in Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone: a spatial analysis of changes over time and implications for policy.

21. Identifying residual hotspots and mapping lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality in African children from 2000 to 2017.

22. Capturing the true burden of Shigella and ETEC: The way forward.

23. Rotavirus Vaccination and the Global Burden of Rotavirus Diarrhea Among Children Younger Than 5 Years.

24. Variation in Childhood Diarrheal Morbidity and Mortality in Africa, 2000-2015.

25. Morbidity, mortality, and long-term consequences associated with diarrhoea from Cryptosporidium infection in children younger than 5 years: a meta-analyses study.

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