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High-resolution palaeoclimate proxies are fundamental to our understanding of the diverse climatic history of the Australian mainland, particularly given the deficiency in instrumental datasets spanning more than a century. Annually resolved, tree-ring-based proxies play a unique role in addressing limitations in our knowledge of interannual to multi-decadal temperature and hydroclimatic variability prior to the instrumental period. Here we present cross-dated ring-width (RW) and minimum blue-intensity (BI) chronologies spanning 70 years (1929–1998) for Podocarpus lawrencei Hook.f., the Australian mainland's only alpine conifer, based on nine full-disc cross-sections from Mount Loch in the Victorian Alps. Correlations with climate variables from observation stations and gridded data across the 1929–1998 period reveal a significant positive relationship between RW and mean monthly maximum temperatures in winter throughout central Victoria (r=0.62, p) and a significant negative correlation to winter precipitation (r=-0.51, p). We also found significant negative correlations between RW and monthly snow depth at Spencer Creek in New South Wales (r=-0.60, p). Of the assessed BI parameters, delta blue intensity (ΔBI; the difference between early- and late-wood BI) displayed the greatest sensitivity to climate, with robust spatial correlations with mean October to December maximum and minimum monthly temperatures (r=-0.43, p; r=-0.51, p) and July precipitation (r=0.44, p), across large areas of northern Victoria. These promising findings highlight the utility of this species for future work. With the very limited availability of suitable long-lived and cross-datable species on the Australian mainland, these results have significant implications for advancing high-resolution palaeoclimate science in southeastern Australia and for improving our understanding of past climate in the region.

Emerging literature suggests that metabolic pathways play an important role in the maintenance and progression of human cancers. In particular, recent studies have implicated lipid biosynthesis and desaturation as a requirement for tumor cell survival. In the studies reported here, we aimed to understand whether tumor cells require the activity of either human isoform of stearoyl-CoA-desaturase (SCD1 or SCD5) for survival. Inhibition of SCD1 by siRNA or a small molecule antagonist results in strong induction of apoptosis and growth inhibition, when tumor cells are cultured in reduced (2%) serum conditions, but has little impact on cells cultured in 10% serum. Depletion of SCD5 had minimal effects on cell growth or apoptosis. Consistent with the observed dependence on SCD1, but not SCD5, levels of SCD1 protein increased in response to decreasing serum levels. Both induction of SCD1 protein and sensitivity to growth inhibition by SCD1 inhibition could be reversed by supplementing growth media with unsaturated fatty acids, the product of the enzymatic reaction catalyzed by SCD1. Transcription profiling of cells treated with an SCD inhibitor revealed strong induction of markers of endoplasmic reticulum stress. Underscoring its importance in cancer, SCD1 protein was found to be highly expressed in a large percentage of human cancer specimens. SCD inhibition resulted in tumor growth delay in a human gastric cancer xenograft model. Altogether, these results suggest that desaturated fatty acids are required for tumor cell survival and that SCD may represent a viable target for the development of novel agents for cancer therapy. Mol Cancer Res; 9(11); 1551–61. ©2011 AACR.

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Monsoonal rainfall in northern Australia (AUMR) varies substantially on interannual, decadal, and longer time scales, profoundly impacting natural systems and agricultural communities. Some of this variability arises in response to sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Indo-Pacific linked to both El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Here we use observations to investigate unresolved issues regarding the influence of the IPO and ENSO on AUMR. Specifically, we show that during negative IPO phases, central Pacific (CP) El Niño events are associated with below-average rainfall over northeast Australia, an anomalous anticyclonic pattern to the northwest of Australia, and eastward moisture advection toward the date line. In contrast, CP La Niña events (distinct from eastern Pacific La Niña events) during negative IPO phases drive significantly wet conditions over much of northern Australia, a strengthened Walker circulation, and large-scale moisture flux convergence. During positive IPO phases, the impact of CP El Niño and CP La Niña events on AUMR is weaker. The influence of central Pacific SSTs on AUMR has been stronger during the recent (post-1999) negative IPO phase. The extent to which this strengthening is associated with climate change or merely natural internal variability is not known.

The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, the radiative power of the fires, and the extraordinary number of fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched in the historical record. Australia’s hottest and driest year on record, 2019, was characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads that primed the landscape to burn when exposed to dangerous fire weather and ignition. The combination of climate variability and long-term climate trends generated the climate extremes experienced in 2019, and the compounding effects of two or more modes of climate variability in their fire-promoting phases (as occurred in 2019) has historically increased the chances of large forest fires occurring in southeast Australia. Palaeoclimate evidence also demonstrates that fire-promoting phases of tropical Pacific and Indian ocean variability are now unusually frequent compared with natural variability in pre-industrial times. Indicators of forest fire danger in southeast Australia have already emerged outside of the range of historical experience, suggesting that projections made more than a decade ago that increases in climate-driven fire risk would be detectable by 2020, have indeed eventuated. The multiple climate change contributors to fire risk in southeast Australia, as well as the observed non-linear escalation of fire extent and intensity, raise the likelihood that fire events may continue to rapidly intensify in the future. Improving local and national adaptation measures while also pursuing ambitious global climate change mitigation efforts would provide the best strategy for limiting further increases in fire risk in southeast Australia. Multiple climate contributors to fire risk in southeast Australia have led to an increase in fire extent and intensity over the past decades that will likely continue into the future, suggests a synthesis of climate variability, long-term trends and palaeoclimatic evidence.

We analyse the decadal variability in the relationship between Australian monsoon rainfall (AUMR) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A composite analysis is conducted to examine monsoon season (December to March) rainfall anomalies over northern Australia during central and eastern Pacific ENSO events between 1920 to 2020. These composites are evaluated separately for positive and negative phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and reveal differences in AUMR anomalies with respect to ENSO event diversity. During central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, the key month is February, in which the AUMR is above average in positive IPO phases and below average during negative IPO phases. This is due to low-level circulation anomalies northwest of Australia, which are cyclonic in the positive IPO phases and anticyclonic in negative IPO phases, in addition to moisture fluxes directed towards the central Pacific, away from northern Australia. During CP La Niña events, there are insignificant rainfall anomalies over northern Australia in December during positive IPO phases. In contrast, during negative IPO phases, strong and significant positive rainfall anomalies cover much of northern and eastern Australia, which relate to large-scale convergence of moisture and an intensification of the Walker Circulation. In summary, AUMR anomalies during CP ENSO events differ between positive and negative phases of the IPO due to variability in the large-scale atmospheric circulation.

High-resolution palaeoclimate proxies are fundamental to our understanding of the diverse climatic history of the Australian mainland, particularly given the deficiency in instrumental datasets spanning greater than a century. Annually resolved, tree-ring based proxies play a unique role in addressing limitations in our knowledge of interannual to multi-decadal temperature and hydroclimatic variability prior to the instrumental period. Here we present cross-dated ring-width (RW) and minimum blue-intensity (BI) chronologies spanning 70 years (1929 – 1998) for Podocarpus lawrencei Hook.f., the Australian mainland's only alpine conifer, based on nine full-disk cross-sections from Mount Loch in the Victorian Alps. Correlations with climate variables from observation stations and gridded data reveal a significant positive relationship between RW and mean monthly maximum temperatures in winter throughout central Victoria (r = 0.62, p < 0.001), and a significant negative correlation to winter precipitation (r = -0.51, p < 0.001). We also found significant negative correlations between RW and monthly snow depth at Spencer Creek in New South Wales (r = -0.60, p < 0.001). Of the assessed BI parameters, delta blue-intensity (ΔBI; the difference between early- and late-wood BI) displayed the greatest sensitivity to climate, with robust spatial correlations with mean October to December maximum and minimum monthly temperatures (r = -0.43, p < 0.001; r = -0.51, p < 0.001) and July precipitation (r = 0.44, p < 0.001), across large areas of northern Victoria. These promising findings highlight the utility of this species for future work. With the very limited availability of suitable long-lived and cross-datable species on the Australian mainland, these results have significant implications for advancing high-resolution palaeoclimate science in southeastern Australia and for improving our understanding of past climate in the region.

In this paper, we argue that current definitions of drought, especially in the context of small-scale agricultural production, are incomplete. We introduce the concept of 'technological drought' to account for crop failures, reduced yields or water scarcity, which are the consequence of an inability to supplement water when there is a lack of irrigation technology and/or existing poor water management. We illustrate the diversity of causes of technological drought, which can include shortages of fuel or electricity to operate pumps, problematically high costs to access irrigation infrastructure, or constrained access to pumps that have to be shared among multiple farmers. We argue that vulnerability to technological drought can be strongly conditioned by socio-economic conditions and that its impact can be magnified when population growth and the demand for food mean that any decline in yield can have serious consequences for food security. We show that technological drought is a complex phenomenon, and can be differentiated from the more widely-recognised classes of drought (meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic) in multiple ways. In particular, technological drought exhibits an important dependence on the socio-economic context of agricultural production. It is perhaps most evident in developing economies, especially where agricultural output depends strongly on the capacity of individual farmers to manage crop water supply on small holdings. Technological drought can follow from even brief interruptions to monsoon rainfall during critical stages of crop growth, such that technological droughts can be distinguished from other forms of drought by their brevity.

International audience; Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.

Much of Australia has been in severe drought since at least 2017. Here we link Australian droughts to the absence of Pacific and Indian Ocean mode states that act as key drivers of drought-breaking rains. Predicting the impact of climate change on drought requires accurate modelling of these modes of variability.

There has recently been interest in understanding the differences between specific levels of global warming, especially the Paris Agreement limits of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, different model experiments1–3 have been used in these analyses under varying rates of increase in global-average temperature. Here, we use climate model simulations to show that, for a given global temperature, most land is significantly warmer in a rapidly warming (transient) case than in a quasi-equilibrium climate. This results in more than 90% of the world’s population experiencing a warmer local climate under transient global warming than equilibrium global warming. Relative to differences between the 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming limits, the differences between transient and quasi-equilibrium states are substantial. For many land regions, the probability of very warm seasons is at least two times greater in a transient climate than in a quasi-equilibrium equivalent. In developing regions, there are sizable differences between transient and quasi-equilibrium climates that underline the importance of explicitly framing projections. Our study highlights the need to better understand differences between future climates under rapid warming and quasi-equilibrium conditions for the development of climate change adaptation policies. Yet, current multi-model experiments1,4 are not designed for this purpose. It has been assumed that spatial patterns of warming are the same under transient and equilibrium scenarios. Analysis of a multi-model ensemble shows that this is not the case, with greater land warming for a transient state, increasing risks that need to be considered in adaptation planning.

El Nino events differ substantially in their spatial pattern and intensity. Canonical Eastern Pacific El Nino events have sea surface temperature anomalies that are strongest in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas peak ocean warming occurs further west during Central Pacific El Nino events. The event types differ in their impacts on the location and intensity of temperature and precipitation anomalies globally. Evidence is emerging that Central Pacific El Nino events have become more common, a trend that is projected by some studies to continue with ongoing climate change. Here we identify spatial and temporal patterns in observed sea surface temperatures that distinguish the evolution of Eastern and Central Pacific El Nino events in the tropical Pacific. We show that these patterns are recorded by a network of 27 seasonally resolved coral records, which we then use to reconstruct Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino activity for the past four centuries. We find a simultaneous increase in Central Pacific events and a decrease in Eastern Pacific events since the late twentieth century that leads to a ratio of Central to Eastern Pacific events that is unusual in a multicentury context. Compared to the past four centuries, the most recent 30 year period includes fewer, but more intense, Eastern Pacific El Nino events. Compared to the past few centuries, Central Pacific El Nino events have become more frequent, whereas the number of Eastern Pacific events has declined in the most recent decades, according to reconstructions from a network of seasonally resolved coral records.

This research analyses the observed relationship between eastern and central Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and Australian monsoon rainfall (AUMR) on a decadal timescale during the December to March monsoon months. To assess the decadal influence of the different flavours of ENSO on the AUMR, we focus on the phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) over the period 1920 to 2020. The AUMR is characterized by substantial decadal variability, which appears to be linked to the positive and negative phases of the IPO. During the past two historical negative IPO phases, significant correlations have been observed between central Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and AUMR over both the northeast and northwest of Australia. This central Pacific SST-AUMR relationship has strengthened from the first negative IPO phase (mid-1940s to the mid-1970s) to the second (late 1990s to mid-2010s), while the eastern Pacific SST-AUMR influence has weakened. Composite rainfall anomalies over Australia reveal a different response of AUMR to central Pacific El Niño/La Niña and eastern Pacific La Niña events during positive IPO and negative IPO phases. This research clearly shows that ENSO's influence on AUMR is modulated by Pacific decadal variability, however this teleconnection, in itself, can change between similar decadal Pacific states. Going forward, as decadal prediction systems improve and become more mainstream, the IPO phase could be used as a potential source for decadal predictability of the tendency of AUMR.

The nature and characteristics of drought are not like a flood, cyclone or storm surge since droughts cannot easily be tracked and are difficult to quantify as a distinct event. In this study, we examined the characteristics of meteorological drought occurrence and severity using the Effective Drought Index (EDI), including the drought events, drought chronology, onset and ending of drought, consecutive drought spells, drought frequency, intensity and severity, using North-Bengal of Bangladesh as a case study. The rainfall and temperature dataset of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for the study region throughout 1979-2018 is utilised. The trends of drought are detected by using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen Slope estimation. We evaluated the performance of EDI using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), historical drought records and rice production. The study finds that seasonal and annual droughts have become more frequent in all seasons except pre-monsoon. In addition, the largest decrease in seasonal EDI is found in the monsoon in both Teesta floodplain and Barind tract. In decades prior to the late 2000s, a drought spell typically started between March to May (± 15 days) and ended with the monsoonal rainfall in June/July. In the years since the last 2000s, monsoon and post-monsoon droughts spells have significantly increased. Overall, the peak intensities of droughts are higher in the Barind tract than in the Teesta floodplain, and the frequency and severity of moderate to severe drought are increasing significantly in the Barind tract. Though EDI is strongly correlated with the SPI index, EDI and rice production have a non-linear relationship and are not significantly correlated. Hence, this research suggests that there are other significant influences on yield rather than just climatological drought (e.g. irrigation, lack of technology and management etc.).

Countries dependent on small-scale agriculture, such as Bangladesh, can be vulnerable to the effects of climate change and variability. Changes in the occurrence and severity of drought are an important part of this issue and form the subject of this paper. We examined the characteristics of meteorological drought occurrence and severity using the Effective Drought Index (EDI), including the drought events, drought chronology, onset and ending of drought, consecutive drought spells, drought frequency, intensity and severity, using North-Bengal of Bangladesh as a case study. The rainfall and temperature dataset of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for the study region throughout 1979–2018 is utilised. The trends of drought are detected by using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen Slope estimation. We evaluated the performance of EDI using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), historical drought records and rice production. This study finds that seasonal and annual droughts have become more frequent over the period studied in all seasons except the pre-monsoon. In addition, the largest decrease in seasonal EDI is found in the monsoon, both in the Teesta floodplain and Barind tract regions. In the decades prior to the late 2000s, a drought spell typically starts between March and May (±15 days) and ends with the monsoonal rainfall in June/July. In the years since the late 2000s, monsoon and post-monsoon droughts spells have significantly increased. Overall, the peak intensity of droughts are higher in the Barind tract than in the Teesta floodplain, and the frequency and severity of moderate to severe drought are increasing significantly in the Barind tract. The drought frequency has increased by at least 10% in North Bengal of Bangladesh over the periods of 1979–2018. Though EDI is strongly correlated with the SPI index, our analysis shows that, surprisingly, rice production is actually decoupled from meteorological drought (as identified by the EDI and SPI). Hence, this research suggests that there are other significant influences on rice yield beyond meteorological drivers. This could include effects from differing irrigation infrastructure, technology and management strategies in the study regions. Challenges to agricultural production may be exacerbated in coming years, should the identified increasing meteorological drought trends continue. Data Availability The data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author.

Pacific decadal variability (PDV) plays a critical role in the climate system. Here I present a review of indices and patterns of decadal climate variability in the Pacific from observations and palaeoclimate reconstructions. I examine the spatial characteristics of Pacific sea surface temperature variability and the metrics used to track observations of PDV. I find commonalities between the PDV patterns, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and its North and South Pacific counterparts, the Pacific Decadal and South Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO and SPDO). I present a tool to provide probabilistic quantification of the recent state of the IPO, and use the tool to provide reliable estimates of IPO state up to 2 years prior to the present. The tool indicates a probability of 80–90% that the IPO remained in its negative state until 2014–2015. I review palaeoclimate reconstructions of the IPO and PDO, and outline advances and challenges in our pre-instrumental understanding of PDV. I draw attention to a Pacific-wide tropical-extratropical mechanism that suggests that the cool and warm phases of PDV are not driven by tropical or extratropical variability alone, but are instead the result of continuous tropical-extratropical interactions on decadal timescales. I conclude by noting key sources of remaining uncertainty and emphasising the need to better understand decadal variability. This will occur through continual improvements in observations, an expansion of palaeoclimate exploration and data collection, and renewed efforts in model development.

Water resource system behaviour is commonly evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation of synthetic streamflow and rainfall data. Fundamental to this process is the estimation of stochastic model param...

Limiting warming to 1.5 °C is expected to lessen the risk of extreme events, relative to 2 °C. Considering Australia, this work shows a decrease of about 25% in the likelihood of record heat, both air and sea surface, if warming is limited to 1.5 °C. To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. However, there is a lack of literature assessing climate change at 1.5 °C and the potential benefits in terms of reduced frequency of extreme events1,2,3. Here, we demonstrate that existing model simulations provide a basis for rapid and rigorous analysis of the effects of different levels of warming on large-scale climate extremes, using Australia as a case study. We show that limiting warming to 1.5 °C, relative to 2 °C, would perceptibly reduce the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia. The Australian continent experiences a variety of high-impact climate extremes that result in loss of life, and economic and environmental damage. Events similar to the record-hot summer of 2012–2013 and warm seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 would be substantially less likely, by about 25% in both cases, if warming is kept to lower levels. The benefits of limiting warming on hydrometeorological extremes are less clear. This study provides a framework for analysing climate extremes at 1.5 °C global warming.

Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic eruptions, temperature projections are centered on a breaching of the 1.5°C target, relative to 1850–1900, before 2029. The phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) will regulate the rate at which mean temperature approaches the 1.5°C level. A transition to the positive phase of the IPO would lead to a projected exceedance of the target centered around 2026. If the Pacific Ocean remains in its negative decadal phase, the target will be reached around 5 years later, in 2031. Given the temporary slowdown in global warming between 2000 and 2014, and recent initialized decadal predictions suggestive of a turnaround in the IPO, a sustained period of rapid temperature rise might be underway. In that case, the world will reach the 1.5°C level of warming several years sooner than if the negative IPO phase persists.

Long, continuous palaeoclimate records provide an opportunity to extend knowledge of decadal to multi-decadal scale climate variability beyond the limit of instrumental records. In this study, qual...

The characteristics of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spectra over the Last Millennium are examined to characterise variability over past centuries. Seven published palaeo-ENSO reconstructions and Nino3.4 from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 and Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project-Phase 3 (CMIP5–PMIP3) Last Millennium simulations were analysed. The corresponding Historical and pre-industrial Control CMIP5–PMIP3 simulations were also considered. The post-1850 spectrum of each modelled or reconstructed ENSO series captures aspects of the observed spectrum to varying degrees. We note that no single model or ENSO reconstruction completely reproduces the instrumental spectral characteristics. The spectral power across the 2–3 years (near biennial), 3–8 years (classical ENSO) and 8–25 years (decadal) periodicity bands was calculated in a sliding 50 year window, revealing temporal variability in the spectra. There was strong temporal variability in the spectral power of each periodicity band in observed Nino3.4 and SOI and for all reconstructions and simulations of ENSO. Significant peaks in spectral power such as observed in recent decades also occur in some of the reconstructed palaeo-ENSO (around 1600, the early 1700s and 1900) and modelled series (around the major volcanic eruptions of 1258 and 1452). While the recent increase in spectral power might be in response to enhanced greenhouse gas levels, the increase lies within the range of variability across the suite of ENSO reconstructions and simulations examined here. This study demonstrates that the analysis of a suite of ENSO reconstructions and model simulations can build a broader understanding of the time-varying nature of ENSO spectra, and how the nature of the past spectra of ENSO is to some extent dependant on the climate model or palaeo-ENSO reconstruction chosen.

This study presents an analysis of three palaeoclimate rainfall reconstructions from the Southern Hemisphere regions of south-eastern Australia (SEA), southern South Africa (SAF) and southern South America (SSA). We provide a first comparison of rainfall variations in these three regions over the past two centuries, with a focus on identifying synchronous wet and dry periods. Despite the uncertainties associated with the spatial and temporal limitations of the rainfall reconstructions, we find evidence of dynamically-forced climate influences. An investigation of the twentieth century relationship between regional rainfall and the large-scale climate circulation features of the Pacific, Indian and Southern Ocean regions revealed that Indo-Pacific variations of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole dominate rainfall variability in SEA and SAF, while the higher latitude Southern Annular Mode (SAM) exerts a greater influence in SSA. An assessment of the stability of the regional rainfall–climate circulation modes over the past two centuries revealed a number of non-stationarities, the most notable of which occurs during the early nineteenth century around 1820. This corresponds to a time when the influence of ENSO on SEA, SAF and SSA rainfall weakens and there is a strengthening of the influence of SAM. We conclude by advocating the use of long-term palaeoclimate data to estimate decadal rainfall variability for future water resource management.

The benefits of limiting global warming to the lower Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C are substantial with respect to population exposure to heat, and should impel countries to strive towards greater emissions reductions.

El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the major source of interannual rainfall variability in the Australian region, with the strongest influence over eastern Australia. The strength of this regional ENSO–rainfall teleconnection varies in the observational record. Climate model simulations of the “last millennium” (850–1850 C.E.) can be used to quantify the natural variability of the relationship between ENSO and Australian rainfall on decadal and longer time scales, providing a baseline for evaluating future projections. In this study, historical and last millennium (LM) simulations from six models were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3. All models reproduce the observed negative correlation between September to February (SONDJF) eastern Australian rainfall and the NINO3.4 index, with varying skill. In the LM simulations, all models produce decadal-scale cooling over eastern Australia in response to volcanic forcing, as well as a long-term cooling trend. Rainfall variability over the same region is not strongly driven by external forcing, with each model simulating rainfall anomalies of different phase and magnitude. SONDJF eastern Australian rainfall is strongly correlated with ENSO in the LM simulations for all models, although some models simulate periods when the teleconnection weakens substantially for several decades. Changes in ENSO variance play a role in modulating the teleconnection strength, but are not the only factor. The long-term average spatial pattern of the ENSO–Australian rainfall teleconnection is similar in the LM and historical simulations, although the spatial pattern varies over time in the LM simulations.

Urban bulk water systems supply water with high reliability and, in the event of extreme drought, must avoid catastrophic economic and social collapse. In view of the deep uncertainty about future climate change, it is vital that robust solutions be found that secure urban bulk water systems against extreme drought. To tackle this challenge an approach was developed integrating: 1) a stochastic model of multi-site streamflow conditioned on future climate change scenarios; 2) Monte Carlo simulation of the urban bulk water system incorporated into a robust optimization framework and solved using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm; and 3) a comprehensive decision space including operating rules, investment in new sources and source substitution and a drought contingency plan with multiple actions with increasingly severe economic and social impact. A case study demonstrated the feasibility of this approach for a complex urban bulk water supply system. The primary objective was to minimize the expected present worth cost arising from infrastructure investment, system operation and the social cost of "normal" and emergency restrictions. By introducing a second objective which minimizes either the difference in present worth cost between the driest and wettest future climate change scenarios or the present worth cost for driest climate scenario, the trade-off between efficiency and robustness was identified. The results show that a significant change in investment and operating strategy can occur when the decision maker expresses a stronger preference for robustness and that this depends on the adopted robustness measure. Moreover, solutions are not only impacted by the degree of uncertainty about future climate change but also by the stress imposed on the system and the range of available options.

A new index is developed for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, termed the IPO Tripole Index (TPI). The IPO is associated with a distinct ‘tripole’ pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), with three large centres of action and variations on decadal timescales, evident in the second principal component (PC) of low-pass filtered global SST. The new index is based on the difference between the SSTA averaged over the central equatorial Pacific and the average of the SSTA in the Northwest and Southwest Pacific. The TPI is an easily calculated, non-PC-based index for tracking decadal SST variability associated with the IPO. The TPI time series bears a close resemblance to previously published PC-based indices and has the advantages of being simpler to compute and more consistent with indices used to track the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as Nino 3.4. The TPI also provides a simple metric in physical units of °C for evaluating decadal and interdecadal variability of SST fields in a straightforward manner, and can be used to evaluate the skill of dynamical decadal prediction systems. Composites of SST and mean sea level pressure anomalies reveal that the IPO has maintained a broadly stable structure across the seven most recent positive and negative epochs that occurred during 1870–2013. The TPI is shown to be a robust and stable representation of the IPO phenomenon in instrumental records, with relatively more variance in decadal than shorter timescales compared to Nino 3.4, due to the explicit inclusion of off-equatorial SST variability associated with the IPO.

Multi-year (2-7 years) and decadal climate variability (MDCV) can have a profound influence on lives, livelihoods and economies. Consequently, learning more about the causes of this variability, the extent to whichit can be predicted, and the greater the clarity that we can provide on the climatic conditions that will unfold over coming years and decades is a high priority for the research community. This importance is reflected in new initiatives by WCRP, CLIVAR, and in the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (Boer et al., 2016) that target this area of research. Here we briefly examine some of the things we know, and have recently learnt, about the causes and predictability of Southern Hemisphere MDCV (SH MDCV), and current skill in its prediction. Fil: Power, Scott. Bureau Of Meteorology; Australia Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina Fil: Chung, Christine. Bureau Of Meteorology; Australia Fil: Colman, Rob. Bureau Of Meteorology; Australia Fil: Kharin, Viatcheslav. Environment And Climate Change Canada; Canadá Fil: Boer, George. Environment And Climate Change Canada; Canadá Fil: Gergis, Joelle. University of Melbourne; Australia Fil: Henley, Benjamin. University of Melbourne; Australia Fil: McGregor, Shayne. Monash University. Faculty Of Science; Australia Fil: Arblaster, Julie. Monash University. Faculty Of Science; Australia Fil: Holbrook, Neil. University of Tasmania; Australia Fil: Liguori, Giovanni. Georgia Institute Of Technology; Estados Unidos

Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly influenced by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these large-scale precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (Apr–Sep) and warm (Oct–Mar) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our sub-annual rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a sub-annual temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30-year and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are also very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium drought (1997–2009) appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental period (Federation drought [1895–1903], World War II drought [1939–1945], and the Millennium drought [1997–2005]), we find that the historically documented Settlement drought [1790–1793], Sturt drought [1809–1830] and the Goyder Line drought [1861–1866] actually had more regionalised patterns and reduced spatial extents. This seasonal rainfall reconstruction provides a new opportunity to understand Australian rainfall variability, by contextualising severe droughts and recent trends in Australia.

This study introduces the Hill model for modelling sorption kinetics and illustrates its efficacy using formal model selection procedures. Although the coefficient of determination (R 2) value can be used to ensure goodness-of-fit of a particular model to a set of data, a measure that incorporates the number of model parameters, such as the Bayesian information criterion, law of iterated logarithm criterion, Akaike information criterion, and the extra sum-of-squares F-test is necessary to undertake reliable model selection. This study undertook a formal model selection procedure based on these criteria, in combination with the coefficient of determination, for a range of candidate kinetics sorption models [the pseudo-second order (PSO), the intra-particle diffusion (IPD), Power, Elovich, and the four and five parameter Hill models]. It was found that the model order that statistically best described the data was Hill 5 > Hill 4 > pseudo-second order > Elovich > Power > IPD as given by the evidence ratios, information criterion weights and Bayes factors. The extra sum-of-squares F-test, only applicable to nested models, confirms the best fit order as Hill 5 > Hill 4 > PSO models. Two new parameters (T and k Hill) have also been defined that give the Hill models a mechanistic meaning directly comparable to the well-defined parameters of the pseudo-second-order model, namely, the pseudo-second-order rate constant k pso and the instantaneous sorption coefficient h pso. In the field of geochemistry the use of the four and five parameter Hill models for describing sorption kinetics has been overlooked with many studies favouring the PSO model. It is strongly recommended that the Hill model be considered more widely as a general predictive tool in geochemistry.

We wish to thank Robert French and Malcolm Jones for their interest in our paper.French and Jones raise a number of concerns regarding the ability of stochastic data to replicate infrequent and sev...

[1] This study proposes a methodology for quantifying the impact of climate drivers on water supply drought risk. Climate driver informed short-term drought risks are evaluated for future time steps following conditioning on the initial state of climate drivers and initial reservoir storage level. The methodology is demonstrated using a case study in eastern Australia. Simulations of future rainfall are provided by the climate-informed multitime scale stochastic (CIMSS) model, which is used to incorporate Pacific decadal variability exhibited by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation-Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. The climate driver informed drought risks are compared to a traditional approach that evaluates long-term drought risks using a nonclimate driver informed rainfall model. The case study considers four scenarios describing a range of different climate driver initial conditions. For the PDO-IPO positive initial state scenarios, the short-term risks are found to be higher than traditional long-term risks by 20%–100%. Furthermore, the elevated short-term risks can last up to 30 years with the CIMSS model but

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python., PAGES, a core project of Future Earth, is supported by the U.S. and Swiss National Science Foundations. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Some of this work was conducted as part of the North America 2k Working Group supported by the John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, funded by the U.S. Geological Survey. B. Bauer, W. Gross, and E. Gille (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information) are gratefully acknowledged for helping assemble the data citations and creating the NCEI versions of the PAGES 2k data records. We thank all the investigators whose commitment to data sharing enables the open science ethos embodied by this project.

Emerging literature suggests that metabolic pathways play an important role in the maintenance and progression of human cancers. In particular, recent studies have implicated lipid biosynthesis and desaturation as a requirement for tumor cell survival. In the studies reported here, we aimed to understand whether tumor cells require the activity of either human isoform of stearoyl-CoA-desaturase (SCD1 or SCD5) for survival. Inhibition of SCD1 by siRNA or a small molecule antagonist results in strong induction of apoptosis and growth inhibition, when tumor cells are cultured in reduced (2%) serum conditions, but has little impact on cells cultured in 10% serum. Depletion of SCD5 had minimal effects on cell growth or apoptosis. Consistent with the observed dependence on SCD1, but not SCD5, levels of SCD1 protein increased in response to decreasing serum levels. Both induction of SCD1 protein and sensitivity to growth inhibition by SCD1 inhibition could be reversed by supplementing growth media with unsaturated fatty acids, the product of the enzymatic reaction catalyzed by SCD1. Transcription profiling of cells treated with an SCD inhibitor revealed strong induction of markers of endoplasmic reticulum stress. Underscoring its importance in cancer, SCD1 protein was found to be highly expressed in a large percentage of human cancer specimens. SCD inhibition resulted in tumor growth delay in a human gastric cancer xenograft model. Altogether, these results suggest that desaturated fatty acids are required for tumor cell survival and that SCD may represent a viable target for the development of novel agents for cancer therapy. Mol Cancer Res; 9(11); 1551–61. ©2011 AACR.

Biarylamine-based inhibitors of Met kinase have been identified. Lead compounds demonstrate nanomolar potency in Met kinase biochemical assays and significant activity in the Met-driven GTL-16 human gastric carcinoma cell line. X-ray crystallography revealed that these compounds adopt a bioactive conformation, in the kinase domain, consistent with that previously seen with 2-pyridone-based Met kinase inhibitors. Compound 9b demonstrated potent in vivo antitumor activity in the GTL-16 human tumor xenograft model.

Tumor angiogenesis is a complex and tightly regulated network mediated by various proangiogenic factors. The fibroblast growth factor (FGF) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) family of growth factors, and associated tyrosine kinase receptors have a major influence in tumor growth and dissemination and may work synergistically to promote angiogenesis. Brivanib alaninate is the orally active prodrug of brivanib, a selective dual inhibitor of FGF and VEGF signaling. Here, we show that brivanib demonstrates antitumor activity in a broad range of xenograft models over multiple dose levels and that brivanib alaninate shows dose-dependent efficacy equivalent to brivanib in L2987 human tumor xenografts. Brivanib alaninate (107 mg/kg) reduced tumor cell proliferation as determined by a 76% reduction in Ki-67 staining and reduced tumor vascular density as determined by a 76% reduction in anti-CD34 endothelial cell staining. Furthermore, Matrigel plug assays in athymic mice showed that brivanib alaninate inhibited angiogenesis driven by VEGF or basic FGF alone, or combined. Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, used to assess the effects of brivanib alaninate on tumor microcirculation, showed a marked decrease in gadopentetate dimeglumine contrast agent uptake at 107 mg/kg dose, with a reduction in area under the plasma concentration-time curve from time 0 to 60 minutes at 24 and 48 hours of 54% and 64%, respectively. These results show that brivanib alaninate is an effective antitumor agent in preclinical models across a range of doses, and that efficacy is accompanied by changes in cellular and vascular activities. Mol Cancer Ther; 9(2); 369–78

Conformationally constrained 2-pyridone analogue 2 is a potent Met kinase inhibitor with an IC50 value of 1.8 nM. Further SAR of the 2-pyridone based inhibitors of Met kinase led to potent 4-pyridone and pyridine N-oxide inhibitors such as 3 and 4. The X-ray crystallographic data of the inhibitor 2 bound to the ATP binding site of Met kinase protein provided insight into the binding modes of these inhibitors, and the SAR of this series of analogues was rationalized. Many of these analogues showed potent antiproliferative activities against the Met dependent GTL-16 gastric carcinoma cell line. Compound 2 also inhibited Flt-3 and VEGFR-2 kinases with IC50 values of 4 and 27 nM, respectively. It possesses a favorable pharmacokinetic profile in mice and demonstrates significant in vivo antitumor activity in the GTL-16 human gastric carcinoma xenograft model.

We report herein a series of substituted N-(1H-pyrrolo[2,3-b]pyridin-5-yl)pyrrolo[2,1-f][1,2,4]triazin-4-amines as inhibitors of vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-2 tyrosine kinase. Through structure–activity relationship studies, biochemical potency, pharmacokinetics, and kinase selectivity were optimized to afford BMS-645737 (13), a compound with good preclinical in vivo activity against human tumor xenograft models.

Recent experience with drought and a shifting climate has highlighted the vulnerability of urban water supplies to “running out of water” in Perth, south-east Queensland, Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide and has triggered major investment in water source infrastructure which ultimately will run into tens of billions of dollars. With the prospect of continuing population growth in major cities, the provision of acceptable drought security will become more pressing particularly if the future climate becomes drier. Decision makers need to deal with significant uncertainty about future climate and population. In particular the science of climate change is such that the accuracy of model predictions of future climate is limited by fundamental irreducible uncertainties. It would be unwise to unduly rely on projections made by climate models and prudent to favour solutions that are robust across a range of possible climate futures. This study presents and demonstrates a methodology that addresses the problem of finding “good” solutions for urban bulk water systems in the presence of deep uncertainty about future climate. The methodology involves three key steps: 1) Build a simulation model of the bulk water system; 2) Construct replicates of future climate that reproduce natural variability seen in the instrumental record and that reflect a plausible range of future climates; and 3) Use multi-objective optimisation to efficiently search through potentially trillions of solutions to identify a set of “good” solutions that optimally trade-off expected performance against robustness or sensitivity of performance over the range of future climates. A case study based on the Lower Hunter in New South Wales demonstrates the methodology. It is important to note that the case study does not consider the full suite of options and objectives; preliminary information on plausible options has been generalised for demonstration purposes and therefore its results should only be used in the context of evaluating the methodology. “Dry” and “wet” climate scenarios that represent the likely span of climate in 2070 based on the A1F1 emissions scenario were constructed. Using the WATHNET5 model, a simulation model of the Lower Hunter was constructed and validated. The search for “good” solutions was conducted by minimizing two criteria, 1) the expected present worth cost of capital and operational costs and social costs due to restrictions and emergency rationing, and 2) the difference in present worth cost between the “dry” and “wet” 2070 climate scenarios. The constraint was imposed that solutions must be able to supply (reduced) demand in the worst drought. Two demand scenarios were considered, “1.28 x current demand” representing expected consumption in 2060 and “2 x current demand” representing a highly stressed system. The optimisation considered a representative range of options including desalination, new surface water sources, demand substitution using rainwater tanks, drought contingency measures and operating rules. It was found the sensitivity of solutions to uncertainty about future climate varied considerably. For the “1.28 x demand” scenario there was limited sensitivity to the climate scenarios resulting in a narrow range of trade-offs. In contrast, for the “2 x demand” scenario, the trade-off between expected present worth cost and robustness was considerable. The main policy implication is that (possibly large) uncertainty about future climate may not necessarily produce significantly different performance trajectories. The sensitivity is determined not only by differences between climate scenarios but also by other external stresses imposed on the system such as population growth and by constraints on the available options to secure the system against drought. Recent experience with drought and a shifting climate has highlighted the vulnerability of urban water supplies to “running out of water” in Perth, south-east Queensland, Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide and has triggered major investment in water source infrastructure which ultimately will run into tens of billions of dollars. With the prospect of continuing population growth in major cities, the provision of acceptable drought security will become more pressing particularly if the future climate becomes drier. Decision makers need to deal with significant uncertainty about future climate and population. In particular the science of climate change is such that the accuracy of model predictions of future climate is limited by fundamental irreducible uncertainties. It would be unwise to unduly rely on projections made by climate models and prudent to favour solutions that are robust across a range of possible climate futures. This study presents and demonstrates a methodology that addresses the problem of finding “good” solutions for urban bulk water systems in the presence of deep uncertainty about future climate. The methodology involves three key steps: 1) Build a simulation model of the bulk water system; 2) Construct replicates of future climate that reproduce natural variability seen in the instrumental record and that reflect a plausible range of future climates; and 3) Use multi-objective optimisation to efficiently search through potentially trillions of solutions to identify a set of “good” solutions that optimally trade-off expected performance against robustness or sensitivity of performance over the range of future climates. A case study based on the Lower Hunter in New South Wales demonstrates the methodology. It is important to note that the case study does not consider the full suite of options and objectives; preliminary information on plausible options has been generalised for demonstration purposes and therefore its results should only be used in the context of evaluating the methodology. “Dry” and “wet” climate scenarios that represent the likely span of climate in 2070 based on the A1F1 emissions scenario were constructed. Using the WATHNET5 model, a simulation model of the Lower Hunter was constructed and validated. The search for “good” solutions was conducted by minimizing two criteria, 1) the expected present worth cost of capital and operational costs and social costs due to restrictions and emergency rationing, and 2) the difference in present worth cost between the “dry” and “wet” 2070 climate scenarios. The constraint was imposed that solutions must be able to supply (reduced) demand in the worst drought. Two demand scenarios were considered, “1.28 x current demand” representing expected consumption in 2060 and “2 x current demand” representing a highly stressed system. The optimisation considered a representative range of options including desalination, new surface water sources, demand substitution using rainwater tanks, drought contingency measures and operating rules. It was found the sensitivity of solutions to uncertainty about future climate varied considerably. For the “1.28 x demand” scenario there was limited sensitivity to the climate scenarios resulting in a narrow range of trade-offs. In contrast, for the “2 x demand” scenario, the trade-off between expected present worth cost and robustness was considerable. The main policy implication is that (possibly large) uncertainty about future climate may not necessarily produce significantly different performance trajectories. The sensitivity is determined not only by differences between climate scenarios but also by other external stresses imposed on the system such as population growth and by constraints on the available options to secure the system against drought. Please cite this report as: Mortazavi, M, Kuczera, G, Kiem, AS, Henley, B, Berghout, B,Turner, E, 2013 Robust optimisation of urban drought security for an uncertain climate. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 74.