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Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Authors :
Andrew D. King
Benjamin J. Henley
Source :
Geophysical Research Letters. 44:4256-4262
Publication Year :
2017
Publisher :
American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2017.

Abstract

Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic eruptions, temperature projections are centered on a breaching of the 1.5°C target, relative to 1850–1900, before 2029. The phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) will regulate the rate at which mean temperature approaches the 1.5°C level. A transition to the positive phase of the IPO would lead to a projected exceedance of the target centered around 2026. If the Pacific Ocean remains in its negative decadal phase, the target will be reached around 5 years later, in 2031. Given the temporary slowdown in global warming between 2000 and 2014, and recent initialized decadal predictions suggestive of a turnaround in the IPO, a sustained period of rapid temperature rise might be underway. In that case, the world will reach the 1.5°C level of warming several years sooner than if the negative IPO phase persists.

Details

ISSN :
19448007 and 00948276
Volume :
44
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Geophysical Research Letters
Accession number :
edsair.doi...........634b8513e36f1238f11a5d79bf998e73
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl073480