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Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
- Source :
- Geophysical Research Letters. 44:4256-4262
- Publication Year :
- 2017
- Publisher :
- American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2017.
-
Abstract
- Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic eruptions, temperature projections are centered on a breaching of the 1.5°C target, relative to 1850–1900, before 2029. The phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) will regulate the rate at which mean temperature approaches the 1.5°C level. A transition to the positive phase of the IPO would lead to a projected exceedance of the target centered around 2026. If the Pacific Ocean remains in its negative decadal phase, the target will be reached around 5 years later, in 2031. Given the temporary slowdown in global warming between 2000 and 2014, and recent initialized decadal predictions suggestive of a turnaround in the IPO, a sustained period of rapid temperature rise might be underway. In that case, the world will reach the 1.5°C level of warming several years sooner than if the negative IPO phase persists.
- Subjects :
- 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Global temperature
Slowdown
Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Global warming
Climate change
010501 environmental sciences
16. Peace & justice
01 natural sciences
Geophysics
13. Climate action
Climatology
Modulation (music)
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Environmental science
Mean radiant temperature
Initial public offering
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 19448007 and 00948276
- Volume :
- 44
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........634b8513e36f1238f11a5d79bf998e73
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl073480