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Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine have impacted the global economy, including the energy sector. The pandemic caused drastic fluctuations in energy demand, oil price shocks, disruptions in energy supply chains, and hampered energy investments, while the war left the world with energy price hikes and energy security challenges. The long-term impacts of these crises on low-carbon energy transitions and mitigation of climate change are still uncertain but are slowly emerging. This paper analyzes the impacts throughout the energy system, including upstream fuel supply, renewable energy investments, demand for energy services, and implications for energy equity, by reviewing recent studies and consulting experts in the field. We find that both crises initially appeared as opportunities for low-carbon energy transitions: the pandemic by showing the extent of lifestyle and behavioral change in a short period and the role of science-based policy advice, and the war by highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and reliance on local, renewable energy sources. However, the early evidence suggests that policymaking worldwide is focused on short-term, seemingly quicker solutions, such as supporting the incumbent energy industry in the post-pandemic era to save the economy and looking for new fossil fuel supply routes for enhancing energy security following the war. As such, the fossil fuel industry may emerge even stronger after these energy crises creating new lock-ins. This implies that the public sentiment against dependency on fossil fuels may end as a lost opportunity to translate into actions toward climate-friendly energy transitions, without ambitious plans for phasing out such fuels altogether. We propose policy recommendations to overcome these challenges toward achieving resilient and sustainable energy systems, mostly driven by energy services.

Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.

Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.

This paper presents the results of an analysis that explores how Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) informed power system models perform when exposed to atypical variability. A simplified power system planning model is tested for two case studies in Guinea-Bissau and Turkey. A TMY proxy is compared against 24-year timeseries datasets containing hourly resolution solar PV and wind capacity factor data. Results show that unforeseen shortages in VRE generation and additional expenses are approximately 36 GWh and 10 million USD for Guinea-Bissau, and 92 GWh and 232,000 million TL for Turkey. Moreover, Turkey faces unmet demand of up to 50 TWh. For Turkey, unmet demand is penalized at 5000 TL/MWh, explaining the high cost increase. The underperformance of the TMY-based simulated system also is responsible for 45.77 million kg of unforeseen CO2 emissions in the case of Guinea-Bissau., QC 20200217

Achieving universal access to electricity by 2030 is a key part of the Agenda for Sustainable Development, and has its own Sustainable Development Goal, SDG 7.1. This is because electricity services are required for almost all aspects of a modern economy, from the cooling of vaccines to irrigation pumping, to manufacturing and running a business. The achievement of SDG 7.1 will require a thoughtful mix of policy, finance, and technology to be designed and implemented at scale. Yet, the pressing need for an electrification ramp-up is not unprecedented. Many countries (now considered “industrialized”) faced similar challenges about a century ago. Although the existing literature covers a great deal of power systems evolution, there is a gap around the specific role and impact of small, isolated power systems in the early stages of electricity uptake. In this paper, we provide insights based on the review of the historical electrification efforts in four (now middle and high-income) countries. The drivers and context of electrification efforts in early stages are described. Those focus particularly on the role of dispersed, small-scale generation systems (mini-grids). Our analysis shows that electrification follows four loosely defined phases, namely: pilot projects, technological roll-out, economic expansion, and social scale-up. We report a selection of historical mistakes and advances that offer lessons of striking importance for today´s energy access efforts, particularly in regards to the development of mini-grids. We find that today, as historically, multi-stakeholder (e.g., planners, regulators, developers, investors, third party actors) collaboration is key and can help build locally adaptable, economically sustainable and community compatible mini-grids that can accelerate—and lower the societal costs of—universal access to electricity

International institutions, such as multilateral development banks and national development agencies, are crucial in funding the provision of electricity services in sub-Saharan Africa. This article discusses the role of these institutions in bringing electricity to the region. The article shows that the scale and focus of global initiatives is wide and eclectic, and coordination between large and smaller funders remains critical. It highlights how over the past decade, 92 percent of international financial support to SSA’s electrification came from World Bank Group (WBG), the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the European Union (EU). The EU’s actions in the field appear to be particularly fragmented. The WBG, the AfDB and the US have streamlined their actions largely by focusing resources on a few initiatives. The article concludes with recommendations to help get more large-scale projects funded, and increase technical assistance and capacity building. Better coordination and information-sharing mechanisms to track the rapidly-changing landscape will be critical to achieve the energy access goals in sub-Saharan Africa.

This paper analyses how local energy and climate actions can affect the use of water and land resources locally, nationally and globally. Each of these resource systems is linked to different Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); we also explore related SDG interactions. A municipality in Sweden with the ambition of phasing out fossil fuels by year 2030 is used as illustrative case example. The local energy system is modelled in detail and indirect water and land requirements are quantified for three stylised decarbonisation scenarios of pathways to meeting climate and energy requirements (related to SDG13 and SDG7, respectively). Total local, national and global implications are addressed for the use of water and land resources, which relate to SDG6 for water, and SDG2 and SDG15 for land use. We find that the magnitude and location of water and land impacts are largely pathway-dependent. Some scenarios of low carbon energy may impede progress on SDG15, while others may compromise SDG6. Data for the studied resource uses are incoherently reported and have important gaps. As a consequence, the study results are indicative and subject to uncertainty. Still, they highlight the need to recognise that resource use changes targeting one SDG in one locality have local and non-local impacts that may compromise progress other SDGs locally and/or elsewhere in the world.

Urban water and energy systems are crucial for sustainably meeting basic service demands in cities. This paper proposes and applies a technology-independent “reference resource-to-service system” framework for concurrent evaluation of urban water and energy system interventions and their ‘nexus’ or ‘interlinkages’. In a concrete application, data that approximate New York City conditions are used to evaluate a limited set of interventions in the residential sector, spanning from low-flow toilet shifts to extensive green roof installations. Results indicate that interventions motivated primarily by water management goals can considerably reduce energy use and contribute to mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Similarly, energy efficiency interventions can considerably reduce water use in addition to lowering emissions. However, interventions yielding the greatest reductions in energy use and emissions are not necessarily the most water conserving ones, and vice versa. Useful further research, expanding the present analysis should consider a broader set of resource interactions, towards a full climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) nexus approach. Overall, assessing the impacts, trade-offs and co-benefits from interventions in one urban resource system on others also holds promise as support for increased resource efficiency through integrated decision making.

In September 2015, the United Nations General Assembly adopted Agenda 2030, which comprises a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) defined by 169 targets. 'Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030' is the seventh goal (SDG7). While access to energy refers to more than electricity, the latter is the central focus of this work. According to the World Bank's 2015 Global Tracking Framework, roughly 15% of the world's population (or 1.1 billion people) lack access to electricity, and many more rely on poor quality electricity services. The majority of those without access (87%) reside in rural areas. This paper presents results of a geographic information systems approach coupled with open access data. We present least-cost electrification strategies on a country-by-country basis for Sub-Saharan Africa. The electrification options include grid extension, mini-grid and stand-alone systems for rural, peri-urban, and urban contexts across the economy. At low levels of electricity demand there is a strong penetration of standalone technologies. However, higher electricity demand levels move the favourable electrification option from stand-alone systems to mini grid and to grid extensions.

Access to clean and affordable modern energy is crucial to fostering social and economic development and to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Efficient policy frameworks and effective electrification programs are required in order to ensure that people are electrified in a sustainable manner. These programs differ from country to country depending on geographic and socioeconomic conditions. Electrification planning process must consider the geographical characteristics of the resources as well as the spatial dimension of social and economic drivers of energy demand in order to find the most optimal energy access solution. Geographical theory and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in particular can play a significant role in electrification planning, since they are capable of managing the data needed in the decision making process and may integrate and assess all possible options. This paper focuses on considering these characteristics by applying a recently developed GIS based methodology to inform electrification planning and strategies in Ethiopia. The paper illustrates two major aspects of energy planning; 1.) how the optimal electrification mix is influenced by a range of parameters – including population density, existing and planned transmission networks and power plants, economic activities, tariffs for grid-based electricity, technology costs for mini-grid and off-grid systems, and fuel costs for consumers and 2.) how the electrification mix differs from location to location. For a certain level of energy access, on-grid connections would be optimal for the majority of the new connections in Ethiopia; grid extension constitutes the lowest cost option for approximately 93% of the newly electrified population in this modelling effort with 2030 as time horizon. However, there are some remote areas with low population density where a mini-grid (ca. 6%) or a stand-alone solution (ca. 1%) are the most economic options. Depending on local resource avai

When considering renewable energy, Pacific Island Countries (PICs) focus on energy security and affordability as primary benefits. In Melanesia, access to modern energy services represents a major unfinished agenda. To that end, Pacific Energy Ministers have endorsed the Framework for Action on Energy Security in the Pacific (FAESP) in April 2011. The associated implementation plan (IPESP) was developed, however never formally endorsed. PICs have instead taken a pathway towards national energy transition roadmaps. This paper describes the current status of the energy sector in PICs, the main challenges and the barriers to the deployment of renewable energy and the role of international cooperation in accelerating deployment. In the context of this analysis, technology cooperation is treated as the sum of cooperation on "orgware", software and hardware. These three dimensions are explored in the context of the Pacific energy sector, looking at how development finance (DF) is currently distributed among them. Looking at the key barriers identified and the areas where DF has been focused to date, this paper proposes a framework for removal of barriers to the deployment of renewable energy in the Pacific through more focused use of DF and technical cooperation. The framework identifies key goals, actors, activities, resources necessary and indicators to monitor progress.

Water and energy supply are strongly interrelated and their efficient management is crucial for a sustainable future. Water and energy systems on several Greek islands face a number of pressing issues. Water supply is problematic as regards both to the water quality and quantity. There is significant lack of water on several islands and this is mainly dealt with tanker vessels which transport vast amounts of water from the mainland. At the same time island energy systems are congested and rely predominanty on fossil fuels, despite the abundant renewable energy potential. These issues may be addressed by combining desalination and renewable energy technologies. It is essential to analyse the feasibility of this possibility. This study focuses on developing a tool capable of designing and optimally sizing desalination and renewable energy units. Several parameters regarding an island's water demandand the desalination's energy requirements are taken into account as well as input data which concern technological performance, resource availability and economic data. The tool is applied on three islands in the South Aegean Sea, Patmos (large), Lipsoi (medium) ad Thirasia (small). Results of the modelling exercise show that the water selling price ranges from 1.45 euro/m^3 for the large island, while the corresponding value is about 2.6 euro/m^3 for the small island, figures significantly lower than the current water cost (7-9 euro/m^3).

Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty.

Sustainable Energy for All seeks to improve the lives of billions of people across the world and ensure a more sustainable future by working to achieve its three global objectives: universal access to energy; doubling of the rate of improvement in energy efficiency; and doubling of the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. Accountability and transparency are essential for tracking Sustainable Energy for All’s global progress. Doing so will clarify where the initiative stands, how various actions are contributing to the three objectives, how much remains to be accomplished, and where more action is needed to achieve Sustainable Energy For All. The first edition of the Global Tracking Framework (2013) provided a system for regular reporting, based on indicators that are technically rigorous and at the same time feasible to compute from current energy data bases, and that offer scope for progressive improvement over time. This second edition of the SE4ALL Global Tracking Framework provides an update of how the world has been moving towards the three objectives over the period 2010-2012. The report also explores a number of complementary themes. First, it provides further analysis of the financial cost of meeting the SE4ALL objectives as well as the geographical and technological distribution of the investments that need to be made. Second, it explores the extent to which countries around the world have access to the technology needed to make progress towards the three goals. Third, it identifies the improvements in data collection methodologies and capacity building that will be needed to provide a more nuanced and accurate picture of progress over time. Finally, this new edition of the Global Tracking Framework explores and introduces nexus concepts focusing on the links between energy and four priority areas of development: food, water, human health, and gender. Links between most of these areas and energy are well established, but often presented in is

A reliable and comprehensive energy information base is required to set targets, design policies and programmes, as well as to enable citizens to make informed choices. Adequate national capacity to track progress towards universal modern energy access represents an especially crucial element of energy poverty alleviation and sustainable development strategies. This paper presents an assessment of the current human and institutional capacity and potential gaps and barriers with regard to measuring and reporting on energy poverty at the national level. The study focuses on five West African countries. Results include a better understanding of the related institutional framework, and insights into data availability and gaps, data gathering techniques, data handling and methodologies, and dissemination of data.

The development and transfer of clean energy technologies to achieve universal energy access is challenging due to the inherent complexities of the energy sector, and the energy governance and financial systems in developing economies. Innovation is an essential part of successfully addressing these difficulties. Duplicating the energy infrastructure models of developed countries will not be sufficient to meet the needs of poor consumers. To the extent that innovation can accelerate energy access, it is important to understand the specific types of innovations that are necessary and how they might be facilitated. The general features of existing international clean energy innovation systems, which are predominantly driven by the markets and emissions reduction mechanisms of developed and rapidly growing emerging economies, are reviewed and the alignment of these systems to the innovation processes required to extend energy access globally is evaluated. Drawing on the innovation policy literature, the attributes of effective international and domestic energy innovation systems that are pro-poor and the associated policy approaches are identified. POLICY RELEVANCE: While energy innovation for climate mitigation suffers from insufficient policy attention, even less attention has been given to energy innovation for energy access for the poor. Four policy approaches to better link energy innovation frameworks to energy access objectives are identified. First, contextually-appropriate, pro-poor policy approaches to innovation should be prioritized over hardware-centric approaches. Second, enabling environments for entrepreneurs should be cultivated. Third, policies should target the enhancement of innovation capabilities, with a particular focus on organizational capital and networks of firms and other actors. Lastly, novel technology transfer pathways, in particular South-South pathways, should be explored. These approaches may have more potential for pro-poor innovation

According to the latest Global Tracking Framework (2015), 18% of the global and 57% of the African poulation live without access to electricity services-a key impediment towards social and economic growth. Accelerating access to elecricity requires, inter alia, strategies nd programmes that effectively address and account for the geographical, infrastructural and socioecnomic characteristics of a country or region. This paper focuses on considering these characteristics by developing a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based methodology to inform electrification planning and strategies. The methodology is applied to Nigeria in order to dentify the optimal mix of electrification options, ranging from grid extensions to mini-grid and off-grid solutions. The case study illustrates how this optimal mix is influenced by a range of parameters-including population density, existing and planned transmission networks and power plants, economic activities, tariffs for grid-based electricity, technology costs for mini-grid and off-grid systems and fuel costs for consumers. For a certain level of energy access, on-grid connections would be optimal for the majority of the new connections in Nigeria; grid extension constitutes the lowest cost option for approximately 86% of the newly electrified population in this modelling effort with 2030 as the time orizon. However, there are some remote areas with low population densities where a mini-grid or a stand-alone solution are the most economic options; deploying some combination of solar, wind, hydro and diesel technologies depending on the locational resource availability.

As the shares of variable renewable generation in power systems increase, so does the need for, inter alia, flexible balancing mechanisms. These mechanisms help ensure the reliable operation of the electricity system by compensating for fluctuations in supply or demand. However, a focus on short-term balancing is sometimes neglected when assessing future capacity expansions with long-term energy system models. Developing heuristics that can simulate short-term system issues is one way of augmenting the functionality of such models. To this end, we present an extended functionality to the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), which captures the impacts of short-term variability of supply and demand on system adequacy and security. Specifically, we modelled the system adequacy as the share of wind energy is increased. Further, we enable the modelling of operating reserve capacities required for balancing services. The dynamics introduced through these model enhancements are presented in an application case study. This application indicates that introducing short-term constraints in long-term energy models may considerably influence the dispatch of power plants, capacity investments, and, ultimately, the policy recommendations derived from such models.

Oil prices took a dramatic plunge starting in late 2014 and have remained low ever since. Combined with parallel developments in natural gas supply, this plunge has prompted questions regarding what the “new normal” might mean for energy markets. Will falling oil and gas prices damage the business case for mitigation technologies, such as renewables? Will they stymie incentives to invest in energy efficiency? How do cheaper oil and gas change the outlook for coal and nuclear? Does this spell bad news for efforts to mitigate climate change? While many have weighed in on these questions, no scientific studies have yet addressed them, at least not since the most recent drop in oil prices. A number of economic analyses have studied the very near-term impacts of oil price shocks; meanwhile, scenarios have explored diverging futures where oil prices vary along with multiple other drivers. As yet, however, there has been no explicit and systematic assessment of the longer-term consequences of different oil price futures for global CO2 emissions. Here we present work using the MESSAGE integrated assessment model, wherein we develop and analyze scenarios with wide-ranging price assumptions that are in line with recent market fluctuations. We find that whether oil prices are stubbornly low or consistently high for decades will have a moderate impact on global emissions and society’s ability to mitigate climate change, even though the fuel mix would look quite different in these alternative futures.

The global production of natural gas has increased from 1226 bcm in 1973 to 3282 bcm in 2010 and is projected to continue rising by an annual growth rate of 1.6% between 2010 to 2035. Cyprus and Israel have recently made major offshore discoveries of natural gas, which can supply to a great extent the two countries’ current domestic energy needs for the next few decades and still export a substantial volume. MESSAGE, a global optimization model was used to explore the possible interactions between the two countries’ energy systems. Scenarios are presented that assess the export potential for electricity (generated by gas-fired power plants), liquefied natural gas (LNG) or gas-to-liquid products (GTL). The results are compared to a scenario without any available reserves to illustrate the financial benefits that will arise from the exploitation of the gas resources in the two countries.

Efforts to meet climate change mitigation and energy security targets spur investments in variable renewable energy sources. Their implications for the operation of power plants are frequently investigated drawing on unit commitment and dispatch models. However, the temporal granularity and operational detail these models consider is commonly omitted in the broader family of long-term energy system models. To compensate this short-coming, these two types of tools have sometimes been "soft-linked" and harmonised for limited simulation years. This paper assesses an alternative approach. We examine an extended version of an open source energy system model (OSeMOSYS), which is able to capture operating reserve and related investment requirements within a single tool. The implications of these model extensions are quantified through comparison with an Irish case study. That case study examined the effects of linking a long-term energy system model (TIMES) with a unit commitment and dispatch model (PLEXOS). It analysed the year 2020 in detail, applying a yearly temporal resolution that is over 700 times higher than in OSeMOSYS. Without increasing temporal resolution (and computational burden) we show that results of the enhanced OSeMOSYS model converge to results of TIMES and PLEXOS: Investment mismatches decrease from 21.4% to 5.0%. The OSeMOSYS analysis was then extended to 2050 to assess the implications of short-term variability on future capacity investment decisions. When variability was ignored, power system investments in 2050 were found to be 14.3% lower. This might imply that energy policies derived from such long-term models -- of which there are many -- may underestimate the costs of introducing variable renewables and thus meeting climate change or energy security targets.

Nations and regions need to share lessons about the best ways to create enabling policies, regulations, and markets that get the most social benefit out of power systems and incent the necessary investments., QC 20131118