Atypical variability in TMY-based power systems

This paper presents the results of an analysis that explores how Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) informed power system models perform when exposed to atypical variability. A simplified power system planning model is tested for two case studies in Guinea-Bissau and Turkey. A TMY proxy is compared against 24-year timeseries datasets containing hourly resolution solar PV and wind capacity factor data. Results show that unforeseen shortages in VRE generation and additional expenses are approximately 36 GWh and 10 million USD for Guinea-Bissau, and 92 GWh and 232,000 million TL for Turkey. Moreover, Turkey faces unmet demand of up to 50 TWh. For Turkey, unmet demand is penalized at 5000 TL/MWh, explaining the high cost increase. The underperformance of the TMY-based simulated system also is responsible for 45.77 million kg of unforeseen CO2 emissions in the case of Guinea-Bissau.
QC 20200217