Search

Background: After 1 year of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) may have a normal GLOBE score despite high alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels. Aim: To assess the association between ALP and liver transplantation (LT)-free survival according to the GLOBE score. Methods: Among patients with a normal or elevated GLOBE score in the Global PBC cohort, the association between ALP after 1 year of UDCA and the risk of LT/death was assessed. The LT-free survival was compared with that of a matched general population. Results: After 1 year of UDCA, ALP was associated with the risk of LT/death (aHR 1.31, 95% CI 1.003–1.72, p = 0.048) among 2729 patients with a normal GLOBE score. The 10-year LT-free survival among these patients with an ALP >2.0 × ULN was 94.0% (95% CI 90.1–97.9) for those <50 years, and 82.6% (95% CI 76.5–88.7) for those ≥50 years, which was significantly lower (p = 0.040) and similar (p = 0.736) to that of the matched population, respectively. The 10-year LT-free survival in patients ≥50 years with normal GLOBE score and normal ALP (90.8%, 95% CI 87.7–93.9) was significantly higher (p = 0.022) than the matched population. Among 1045 patients with an elevated GLOBE score, ALP was associated with LT/death only in those <50 years (aHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.06–1.81, p = 0.016). Conclusion: The LT-free survival of patients with PBC with a normal GLOBE score is optimal in case of normal ALP levels, also in relation to the general population. Despite their generally favourable prognosis, an elevated ALP level may still indicate a need for add-on therapy.

Objectives: In this era of near universal ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), progression to cirrhosis still occurs in an important proportion of patients. The aim of this study was to describe the incidence of cirrhosis-associated complications in patients with PBC and assess risk factors and impact on survival. Methods: Cohorts of UDCA-treated patients from 16 European and North-American liver centers were included. We used Cox proportional hazards assumptions and Kaplan-Meier estimates. Results: During 8.1 years' median follow-up, 278 of 3,224 patients developed ascites, variceal bleeding, and/or encephalopathy (incidence rate of 9.7 cases/1,000 patient years). The overall cumulative incidence was 9.1% after 10 years of follow-up, but decreased over time to 5.8% after the year 2000. Earlier calendar year of diagnosis (P<0.001), high aspartate aminotransferase to platelets ratio index (APRI; P<0.001) and biochemical non-response (P<0.001) were independently associated with future complications. Patients with both biochemical non-response and an APRI >0.54 after 12 months of UDCA had a 10-year complication rate of 37.4%, as compared to 3.2% in biochemical responders with an APRI ≤0.54. The 10-year transplantation-free survival after a complication was 9% (time-dependent hazard ratio 21.5; 20.1-22.8). Prognosis after variceal bleeding has improved over time. Conclusions: In this large international cohort, up to 15% of UDCA-treated PBC patients developed major non-neoplastic, cirrhosis-associated hepatic complications within 15 years, but cumulative incidence has decreased over time. Biochemical non-response to UDCA and APRI were independent risk factors for these complications. Subsequent long-term outcome after complications is generally poor, but has improved over the past decades.