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With the advent of large language models (LLMs), there has been a great deal of interest in applying them to solve difficult programming tasks. Recent work has demonstrated their potential at program optimization, a key challenge in programming languages research. We propose a blackbox adaptation method called Retrieval Augmented Search (RAS) that performs beam search over candidate optimizations; at each step, it retrieves in-context examples from a given training dataset of slow-fast program pairs to guide the LLM. Critically, we find that performing contextual retrieval based on an LLM-generated natural language description significantly outperforms retrieval based on the source code. In addition, we propose a method called AEGIS for improving interpretability by decomposing training examples into "atomic edits" that are significantly more incremental in nature. We show that RAS performs 1.8$\times$ better than prior state-of-the-art blackbox adaptation strategies, and that AEGIS performs 1.37$\times$ better while performing significantly smaller edits.

The goal of offline model-based optimization (MBO) is to propose new designs that maximize a reward function given only an offline dataset. However, an important desiderata is to also propose a diverse set of final candidates that capture many optimal and near-optimal design configurations. We propose Diversity in Adversarial Model-based Optimization (DynAMO) as a novel method to introduce design diversity as an explicit objective into any MBO problem. Our key insight is to formulate diversity as a distribution matching problem where the distribution of generated designs captures the inherent diversity contained within the offline dataset. Extensive experiments spanning multiple scientific domains show that DynAMO can be used with common optimization methods to significantly improve the diversity of proposed designs while still discovering high-quality candidates.

Patient life circumstances, including social determinants of health (SDOH), shape both health outcomes and care access, contributing to persistent disparities across gender, race, and socioeconomic status. Liver transplantation exemplifies these challenges, requiring complex eligibility and allocation decisions where SDOH directly influence patient evaluation. We developed an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven framework to analyze how broadly defined SDOH -- encompassing both traditional social determinants and transplantation-related psychosocial factors -- influence patient care trajectories. Using large language models, we extracted 23 SDOH factors related to patient eligibility for liver transplantation from psychosocial evaluation notes. These SDOH ``snapshots'' significantly improve prediction of patient progression through transplantation evaluation stages and help explain liver transplantation decisions including the recommendation based on psychosocial evaluation and the listing of a patient for a liver transplantation. Our analysis helps identify patterns of SDOH prevalence across demographics that help explain racial disparities in liver transplantation decisions. We highlight specific unmet patient needs, which, if addressed, could improve the equity and efficacy of transplant care. While developed for liver transplantation, this systematic approach to analyzing previously unstructured information about patient circumstances and clinical decision-making could inform understanding of care decisions and disparities across various medical domains., Comment: Spotlight Paper, ML4H 2024; Leonidas H. Berry Health Equity Research Award, ACG 2024; Plenary Presentation, AASLD 2024

Predicting temporal progress from visual trajectories is important for intelligent robots that can learn, adapt, and improve. However, learning such progress estimator, or temporal value function, across different tasks and domains requires both a large amount of diverse data and methods which can scale and generalize. To address these challenges, we present Generative Value Learning (\GVL), a universal value function estimator that leverages the world knowledge embedded in vision-language models (VLMs) to predict task progress. Naively asking a VLM to predict values for a video sequence performs poorly due to the strong temporal correlation between successive frames. Instead, GVL poses value estimation as a temporal ordering problem over shuffled video frames; this seemingly more challenging task encourages VLMs to more fully exploit their underlying semantic and temporal grounding capabilities to differentiate frames based on their perceived task progress, consequently producing significantly better value predictions. Without any robot or task specific training, GVL can in-context zero-shot and few-shot predict effective values for more than 300 distinct real-world tasks across diverse robot platforms, including challenging bimanual manipulation tasks. Furthermore, we demonstrate that GVL permits flexible multi-modal in-context learning via examples from heterogeneous tasks and embodiments, such as human videos. The generality of GVL enables various downstream applications pertinent to visuomotor policy learning, including dataset filtering, success detection, and advantage-weighted regression -- all without any model training or finetuning., Comment: Project website and demo: https://generative-value-learning.github.io/

Recent work has demonstrated that a promising strategy for teaching robots a wide range of complex skills is by training them on a curriculum of progressively more challenging environments. However, developing an effective curriculum of environment distributions currently requires significant expertise, which must be repeated for every new domain. Our key insight is that environments are often naturally represented as code. Thus, we probe whether effective environment curriculum design can be achieved and automated via code generation by large language models (LLM). In this paper, we introduce Eurekaverse, an unsupervised environment design algorithm that uses LLMs to sample progressively more challenging, diverse, and learnable environments for skill training. We validate Eurekaverse's effectiveness in the domain of quadrupedal parkour learning, in which a quadruped robot must traverse through a variety of obstacle courses. The automatic curriculum designed by Eurekaverse enables gradual learning of complex parkour skills in simulation and can successfully transfer to the real-world, outperforming manual training courses designed by humans., Comment: Conference on Robot Learning (CoRL), 2024. Project website and code: https://eureka-research.github.io/eurekaverse

Conformal prediction has recently emerged as a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of a predictive model; these algorithms modify the model to output sets of labels that are guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms have largely targeted classification and regression settings, where the structure of the prediction set has a simple form as a level set of the scoring function. However, for complex structured outputs such as text generation, these prediction sets might include a large number of labels and therefore be hard for users to interpret. In this paper, we propose a general framework for conformal prediction in the structured prediction setting, that modifies existing conformal prediction algorithms to output structured prediction sets that implicitly represent sets of labels. In addition, we demonstrate how our approach can be applied in domains where the prediction sets can be represented as a set of nodes in a directed acyclic graph; for instance, for hierarchical labels such as image classification, a prediction set might be a small subset of coarse labels implicitly representing the prediction set of all their more fine-descendants. We demonstrate how our algorithm can be used to construct prediction sets that satisfy a desired coverage guarantee in several domains., Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a standardized set of forecasting questions. To address this gap, we introduce ForecastBench: a dynamic benchmark that evaluates the accuracy of ML systems on an automatically generated and regularly updated set of 1,000 forecasting questions. To avoid any possibility of data leakage, ForecastBench is comprised solely of questions about future events that have no known answer at the time of submission. We quantify the capabilities of current ML systems by collecting forecasts from expert (human) forecasters, the general public, and LLMs on a random subset of questions from the benchmark ($N=200$). While LLMs have achieved super-human performance on many benchmarks, they perform less well here: expert forecasters outperform the top-performing LLM (p-value $<0.01$). We display system and human scores in a public leaderboard at www.forecastbench.org.

Diagnostic imaging studies are an increasingly important component of the workup and management of acutely presenting patients. However, ordering appropriate imaging studies according to evidence-based medical guidelines is a challenging task with a high degree of variability between healthcare providers. To address this issue, recent work has investigated if generative AI and large language models can be leveraged to help clinicians order relevant imaging studies for patients. However, it is challenging to ensure that these tools are correctly aligned with medical guidelines, such as the American College of Radiology's Appropriateness Criteria (ACR AC). In this study, we introduce a framework to intelligently leverage language models by recommending imaging studies for patient cases that are aligned with evidence-based guidelines. We make available a novel dataset of patient "one-liner" scenarios to power our experiments, and optimize state-of-the-art language models to achieve an accuracy on par with clinicians in image ordering. Finally, we demonstrate that our language model-based pipeline can be used as intelligent assistants by clinicians to support image ordering workflows and improve the accuracy of imaging study ordering according to the ACR AC. Our work demonstrates and validates a strategy to leverage AI-based software to improve trustworthy clinical decision making in alignment with expert evidence-based guidelines., Comment: 15 pages main text, 4 figures, 1 table

Today's most advanced vision-language models (VLMs) remain proprietary. The strongest open-weight models rely heavily on synthetic data from proprietary VLMs to achieve good performance, effectively distilling these closed VLMs into open ones. As a result, the community has been missing foundational knowledge about how to build performant VLMs from scratch. We present Molmo, a new family of VLMs that are state-of-the-art in their class of openness. Our key contribution is a collection of new datasets called PixMo, including a dataset of highly detailed image captions for pre-training, a free-form image Q&A dataset for fine-tuning, and an innovative 2D pointing dataset, all collected without the use of external VLMs. The success of our approach relies on careful modeling choices, a well-tuned training pipeline, and, most critically, the quality of our newly collected datasets. Our best-in-class 72B model not only outperforms others in the class of open weight and data models, but also outperforms larger proprietary models including Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Gemini 1.5 Pro and Flash, second only to GPT-4o based on both academic benchmarks and on a large human evaluation. Our model weights, new datasets, and source code are available at https://molmo.allenai.org/blog., Comment: Updated with ablations and more technical details

Foundation models pre-trained using self-supervised and weakly-supervised learning have shown powerful transfer learning capabilities on various downstream tasks, including language understanding, text generation, and image recognition. Recently, the Earth observation (EO) field has produced several foundation models pre-trained directly on multispectral satellite imagery (e.g., Sentinel-2) for applications like precision agriculture, wildfire and drought monitoring, and natural disaster response. However, few studies have investigated the ability of these models to generalize to new geographic locations, and potential concerns of geospatial bias -- models trained on data-rich developed countries not transferring well to data-scarce developing countries -- remain. We investigate the ability of popular EO foundation models to transfer to new geographic regions in the agricultural domain, where differences in farming practices and class imbalance make transfer learning particularly challenging. We first select six crop classification datasets across five continents, normalizing for dataset size and harmonizing classes to focus on four major cereal grains: maize, soybean, rice, and wheat. We then compare three popular foundation models, pre-trained on SSL4EO-S12, SatlasPretrain, and ImageNet, using in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) evaluation. Experiments show that pre-trained weights designed explicitly for Sentinel-2, such as SSL4EO-S12, outperform general pre-trained weights like ImageNet. Furthermore, the benefits of pre-training on OOD data are the most significant when only 10--100 ID training samples are used. Transfer learning and pre-training with OOD and limited ID data show promising applications, as many developing regions have scarce crop type labels. All harmonized datasets and experimental code are open-source and available for download.

Conformal prediction has emerged as an effective strategy for uncertainty quantification by modifying a model to output sets of labels instead of a single label. These prediction sets come with the guarantee that they contain the true label with high probability. However, conformal prediction typically requires a large calibration dataset of i.i.d. examples. We consider the online learning setting, where examples arrive over time, and the goal is to construct prediction sets dynamically. Departing from existing work, we assume semi-bandit feedback, where we only observe the true label if it is contained in the prediction set. For instance, consider calibrating a document retrieval model to a new domain; in this setting, a user would only be able to provide the true label if the target document is in the prediction set of retrieved documents. We propose a novel conformal prediction algorithm targeted at this setting, and prove that it obtains sublinear regret compared to the optimal conformal predictor. We evaluate our algorithm on a retrieval task, an image classification task, and an auction price-setting task, and demonstrate that it empirically achieves good performance compared to several baselines.

We study the stochastic bandit problem with ReLU neural network structure. We show that a $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret guarantee is achievable by considering bandits with one-layer ReLU neural networks; to the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to achieve such a guarantee. In this specific setting, we propose an OFU-ReLU algorithm that can achieve this upper bound. The algorithm first explores randomly until it reaches a linear regime, and then implements a UCB-type linear bandit algorithm to balance exploration and exploitation. Our key insight is that we can exploit the piecewise linear structure of ReLU activations and convert the problem into a linear bandit in a transformed feature space, once we learn the parameters of ReLU relatively accurately during the exploration stage. To remove dependence on model parameters, we design an OFU-ReLU+ algorithm based on a batching strategy, which can provide the same theoretical guarantee.

The capability to generate diverse text is a key challenge facing large language models (LLMs). Thus far, diversity has been studied via metrics such as $n$-gram diversity or diversity of BERT embeddings. However, for these kinds of diversity, the user has little control over the dimensions along which diversity is considered. For example, in the poetry domain, one might desire diversity in terms of rhyme and meter, whereas in the code domain, one might desire diversity in terms of the kinds of expressions used to solve a problem. We propose a diversity metric called structural diversity, where the user provides a mapping from generated text to features capturing the kinds of diversity that they care about. In addition, we propose a novel strategy called chain-of-specification (CoS) prompting for improving diversity by first having the LLM generate a specification encoding one instance of structural features, and then prompting the LLM to generate text that satisfies these features; notably, our strategy works with blackbox LLMs. In our experiments, we show that for structural diversity in the poetry and code domains, CoS significantly improves diversity compared to several baselines.

We prove convergence guarantees for generalized low-rank matrix sensing -- i.e., where matrix sensing where the observations may be passed through some nonlinear link function. We focus on local convergence of the optimal estimator, ignoring questions of optimization. In particular, assuming the minimizer of the empirical loss $\theta^0$ is in a constant size ball around the true parameters $\theta^*$, we prove that $d(\theta^0,\theta^*)=\tilde{O}(\sqrt{dk^2/n})$. Our analysis relies on tools from Riemannian geometry to handle the rotational symmetry in the parameter space.

We consider access control for IoT systems that involves shared accesses to the IoT devices as well as their data. Since IoT devices are dispersed all over the edge of the Internet, traditional centralized access control has problems. Blockchain based decentralized access control is thus the new solution trend. However, existing blockchain based access control methods do not focus on performance issues and may incur a high communication overhead. In this paper, we develop a Pruning Blockchain based Access Control (PBAC) protocol to cutdown the unnecessary message rounds and achieve high efficiency in access validations and policy management. The protocol includes a shortcut and a Role and Device Hierarchy-Based Access Control (R&D-BAC) approaches for different environment settings. To realize the PBAC protocol, it is necessary to carefully engineer the system architecture, which is also discussed in the paper. Experiments demonstrate the efficacy of the PBAC protocol, specifically, the shortcut mechanism reduces access time by approximately 43%, and R&D-BAC outperforms traditional blockchain based RBAC by more than two folds.

Zeroth-order optimization (ZO) is a memory-efficient strategy for fine-tuning Large Language Models using only forward passes. However, the application of ZO fine-tuning in memory-constrained settings such as mobile phones and laptops is still challenging since full precision forward passes are infeasible. In this study, we address this limitation by integrating sparsity and quantization into ZO fine-tuning of LLMs. Specifically, we investigate the feasibility of fine-tuning an extremely small subset of LLM parameters using ZO. This approach allows the majority of un-tuned parameters to be quantized to accommodate the constraint of limited device memory. Our findings reveal that the pre-training process can identify a set of "sensitive parameters" that can guide the ZO fine-tuning of LLMs on downstream tasks. Our results demonstrate that fine-tuning 0.1% sensitive parameters in the LLM with ZO can outperform the full ZO fine-tuning performance, while offering wall-clock time speedup. Additionally, we show that ZO fine-tuning targeting these 0.1% sensitive parameters, combined with 4 bit quantization, enables efficient ZO fine-tuning of an Llama2-7B model on a GPU device with less than 8 GiB of memory and notably reduced latency.

Transferring policies learned in simulation to the real world is a promising strategy for acquiring robot skills at scale. However, sim-to-real approaches typically rely on manual design and tuning of the task reward function as well as the simulation physics parameters, rendering the process slow and human-labor intensive. In this paper, we investigate using Large Language Models (LLMs) to automate and accelerate sim-to-real design. Our LLM-guided sim-to-real approach, DrEureka, requires only the physics simulation for the target task and automatically constructs suitable reward functions and domain randomization distributions to support real-world transfer. We first demonstrate that our approach can discover sim-to-real configurations that are competitive with existing human-designed ones on quadruped locomotion and dexterous manipulation tasks. Then, we showcase that our approach is capable of solving novel robot tasks, such as quadruped balancing and walking atop a yoga ball, without iterative manual design., Comment: Robotics: Science and Systems (RSS) 2024. Project website and open-source code: https://eureka-research.github.io/dr-eureka/

Offline model-based optimization seeks to optimize against a learned surrogate model without querying the true oracle objective function during optimization. Such tasks are commonly encountered in protein design, robotics, and clinical medicine where evaluating the oracle function is prohibitively expensive. However, inaccurate surrogate model predictions are frequently encountered along offline optimization trajectories. To address this limitation, we propose generative adversarial model-based optimization using adaptive source critic regularization (aSCR) -- a task- and optimizer- agnostic framework for constraining the optimization trajectory to regions of the design space where the surrogate function is reliable. We propose a computationally tractable algorithm to dynamically adjust the strength of this constraint, and show how leveraging aSCR with standard Bayesian optimization outperforms existing methods on a suite of offline generative design tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/michael-s-yao/gabo, Comment: 31 pages, Accepted to NeurIPS 2024

The growing safety concerns surrounding large language models raise an urgent need to align them with diverse human preferences to simultaneously enhance their helpfulness and safety. A promising approach is to enforce safety constraints through Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF). For such constrained RLHF, typical Lagrangian-based primal-dual policy optimization methods are computationally expensive and often unstable. This paper presents a perspective of dualization that reduces constrained alignment to an equivalent unconstrained alignment problem. We do so by pre-optimizing a smooth and convex dual function that has a closed form. This shortcut eliminates the need for cumbersome primal-dual policy iterations, greatly reducing the computational burden and improving training stability. Our strategy leads to two practical algorithms in model-based and preference-based settings (MoCAN and PeCAN, respectively). A broad range of experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and merits of our algorithms., Comment: 32 pages, 6 figures, 8 tables

Machine learning has become an effective tool for automatically annotating unstructured data (e.g., images) with structured labels (e.g., object detections). As a result, a new programming paradigm called neurosymbolic programming has emerged where users write queries against these predicted annotations. However, due to the intrinsic fallibility of machine learning models, these programs currently lack any notion of correctness. In many domains, users may want some kind of conservative guarantee that the results of their queries contain all possibly relevant instances. Conformal prediction has emerged as a promising strategy for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning by modifying models to predict sets of labels instead of individual labels; it provides a probabilistic guarantee that the prediction set contains the true label with high probability. We propose a novel framework for adapting conformal prediction to neurosymbolic programs; our strategy is to represent prediction sets as abstract values in some abstract domain, and then to use abstract interpretation to propagate prediction sets through the program. Our strategy satisfies three key desiderata: (i) correctness (i.e., the program outputs a prediction set that contains the true output with high probability), (ii) compositionality (i.e., we can quantify uncertainty separately for different modules and then compose them together), and (iii) structured values (i.e., we can provide uncertainty quantification for structured values such as lists). When the full program is available ahead-of-time, we propose an optimization that incorporates conformal prediction at intermediate program points to reduce imprecision in abstract interpretation. We evaluate our approach on programs that take MNIST and MS-COCO images as input, demonstrating that it produces reasonably sized prediction sets while satisfying a coverage guarantee., Comment: arXiv abstract edited

The Internet of Things (IoT) necessitates robust access control mechanisms to secure a vast array of interconnected devices. Most of the existing IoT systems in practice use centralized solutions. We identify the problems in such solutions and adopt the blockchain based decentralized access control approach. Though there are works in the literature that use blockchain for access control, there are some gaps in these works. We develop a blockchain embedded access control (BEAC) framework to bridge the gaps. First, blockchain based solutions for access control require an enabling P2P network while existing P2P overlays do not support some required features. We develop a novel P2P infrastructure to seamlessly support our BEAC framework. Second, most of the works consider blockchain based access control for a single access control model, and we develop a generic blockchain mechanism and show that it can support the embedding of various access control models. Finally, existing works adopt existing blockchain mechanisms which may incur a high communication overhead. We develop a shortcut approach to improve the number of message rounds in the access protocol. Our experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our system, showing that the shortcut mechanism can reduces access time by approximately 43%.

Scripting languages are widely used to compose external calls, such as foreign functions that perform expensive computations, remote APIs, and more recently, machine learning systems such as large language models (LLMs). The execution time of scripts is often dominated by waiting for these external calls, and large speedups can be achieved via parallelization and streaming. However, doing this manually is challenging, even for expert programmers. To address this, we propose a novel opportunistic evaluation strategy for scripting languages based on a core lambda calculus that automatically executes external calls in parallel, as early as possible. We prove that our approach is confluent, ensuring that it preserves the programmer's original intent, and that our approach eventually executes every external call. We implement this approach in a framework called EPIC, embedded in Python. We demonstrate its versatility and performance on several applications drawn from the LLM literature, including Tree-of-Throughts and tool use. Our experiments show that opportunistic evaluation improves total running time (up to $6.2\times$) and latency (up to $12.7\times$) compared to several state-of-the-art baselines, while performing very close (between $1.3\%$ and $18.5\%$ running time overhead) to hand-tuned manually optimized parallel Rust implementations.

Language Models (LMs) have shown promising performance in natural language generation. However, as LMs often generate incorrect or hallucinated responses, it is crucial to correctly quantify their uncertainty in responding to given inputs. In addition to verbalized confidence elicited via prompting, many uncertainty measures ($e.g.$, semantic entropy and affinity-graph-based measures) have been proposed. However, these measures can differ greatly, and it is unclear how to compare them, partly because they take values over different ranges ($e.g.$, $[0,\infty)$ or $[0,1]$). In this work, we address this issue by developing a novel and practical framework, termed $Rank$-$Calibration$, to assess uncertainty and confidence measures for LMs. Our key tenet is that higher uncertainty (or lower confidence) should imply lower generation quality, on average. Rank-calibration quantifies deviations from this ideal relationship in a principled manner, without requiring ad hoc binary thresholding of the correctness score ($e.g.$, ROUGE or METEOR). The broad applicability and the granular interpretability of our methods are demonstrated empirically.

The creation of large, diverse, high-quality robot manipulation datasets is an important stepping stone on the path toward more capable and robust robotic manipulation policies. However, creating such datasets is challenging: collecting robot manipulation data in diverse environments poses logistical and safety challenges and requires substantial investments in hardware and human labour. As a result, even the most general robot manipulation policies today are mostly trained on data collected in a small number of environments with limited scene and task diversity. In this work, we introduce DROID (Distributed Robot Interaction Dataset), a diverse robot manipulation dataset with 76k demonstration trajectories or 350 hours of interaction data, collected across 564 scenes and 84 tasks by 50 data collectors in North America, Asia, and Europe over the course of 12 months. We demonstrate that training with DROID leads to policies with higher performance and improved generalization ability. We open source the full dataset, policy learning code, and a detailed guide for reproducing our robot hardware setup., Comment: Project website: https://droid-dataset.github.io/

Existing approaches to algorithmic fairness aim to ensure equitable outcomes if human decision-makers comply perfectly with algorithmic decisions. However, perfect compliance with the algorithm is rarely a reality or even a desirable outcome in human-AI collaboration. Yet, recent studies have shown that selective compliance with fair algorithms can amplify discrimination relative to the prior human policy. As a consequence, ensuring equitable outcomes requires fundamentally different algorithmic design principles that ensure robustness to the decision-maker's (a priori unknown) compliance pattern. We define the notion of compliance-robustly fair algorithmic recommendations that are guaranteed to (weakly) improve fairness in decisions, regardless of the human's compliance pattern. We propose a simple optimization strategy to identify the best performance-improving compliance-robustly fair policy. However, we show that it may be infeasible to design algorithmic recommendations that are simultaneously fair in isolation, compliance-robustly fair, and more accurate than the human policy; thus, if our goal is to improve the equity and accuracy of human-AI collaboration, it may not be desirable to enforce traditional fairness constraints.

Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing poses a global threat to ocean habitats. Publicly available satellite data offered by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) provide an opportunity to actively monitor this activity. Effectively leveraging satellite data for maritime conservation requires highly reliable machine learning models operating globally with minimal latency. This paper introduces three specialized computer vision models designed for synthetic aperture radar (Sentinel-1), optical imagery (Sentinel-2), and nighttime lights (Suomi-NPP/NOAA-20). It also presents best practices for developing and delivering real-time computer vision services for conservation. These models have been deployed in Skylight, a real time maritime monitoring platform, which is provided at no cost to users worldwide., Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, submitted to NeurIPS Computational Sustainability 2023

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have excelled as high-level semantic planners for sequential decision-making tasks. However, harnessing them to learn complex low-level manipulation tasks, such as dexterous pen spinning, remains an open problem. We bridge this fundamental gap and present Eureka, a human-level reward design algorithm powered by LLMs. Eureka exploits the remarkable zero-shot generation, code-writing, and in-context improvement capabilities of state-of-the-art LLMs, such as GPT-4, to perform evolutionary optimization over reward code. The resulting rewards can then be used to acquire complex skills via reinforcement learning. Without any task-specific prompting or pre-defined reward templates, Eureka generates reward functions that outperform expert human-engineered rewards. In a diverse suite of 29 open-source RL environments that include 10 distinct robot morphologies, Eureka outperforms human experts on 83% of the tasks, leading to an average normalized improvement of 52%. The generality of Eureka also enables a new gradient-free in-context learning approach to reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), readily incorporating human inputs to improve the quality and the safety of the generated rewards without model updating. Finally, using Eureka rewards in a curriculum learning setting, we demonstrate for the first time, a simulated Shadow Hand capable of performing pen spinning tricks, adeptly manipulating a pen in circles at rapid speed., Comment: ICLR 2024. Project website and open-source code: https://eureka-research.github.io/

Large, high-capacity models trained on diverse datasets have shown remarkable successes on efficiently tackling downstream applications. In domains from NLP to Computer Vision, this has led to a consolidation of pretrained models, with general pretrained backbones serving as a starting point for many applications. Can such a consolidation happen in robotics? Conventionally, robotic learning methods train a separate model for every application, every robot, and even every environment. Can we instead train generalist X-robot policy that can be adapted efficiently to new robots, tasks, and environments? In this paper, we provide datasets in standardized data formats and models to make it possible to explore this possibility in the context of robotic manipulation, alongside experimental results that provide an example of effective X-robot policies. We assemble a dataset from 22 different robots collected through a collaboration between 21 institutions, demonstrating 527 skills (160266 tasks). We show that a high-capacity model trained on this data, which we call RT-X, exhibits positive transfer and improves the capabilities of multiple robots by leveraging experience from other platforms. More details can be found on the project website https://robotics-transformer-x.github.io., Comment: Project website: https://robotics-transformer-x.github.io

Real-world robotic tasks stretch over extended horizons and encompass multiple stages. Learning long-horizon manipulation tasks, however, is a long-standing challenge, and demands decomposing the overarching task into several manageable subtasks to facilitate policy learning and generalization to unseen tasks. Prior task decomposition methods require task-specific knowledge, are computationally intensive, and cannot readily be applied to new tasks. To address these shortcomings, we propose Universal Visual Decomposer (UVD), an off-the-shelf task decomposition method for visual long horizon manipulation using pre-trained visual representations designed for robotic control. At a high level, UVD discovers subgoals by detecting phase shifts in the embedding space of the pre-trained representation. Operating purely on visual demonstrations without auxiliary information, UVD can effectively extract visual subgoals embedded in the videos, while incurring zero additional training cost on top of standard visuomotor policy training. Goal-conditioned policies learned with UVD-discovered subgoals exhibit significantly improved compositional generalization at test time to unseen tasks. Furthermore, UVD-discovered subgoals can be used to construct goal-based reward shaping that jump-starts temporally extended exploration for reinforcement learning. We extensively evaluate UVD on both simulation and real-world tasks, and in all cases, UVD substantially outperforms baselines across imitation and reinforcement learning settings on in-domain and out-of-domain task sequences alike, validating the clear advantage of automated visual task decomposition within the simple, compact UVD framework.