1. A novel use of structural equation models to examine factors associated with prediabetes among adults aged 50 years and older: National health and nutrition examination survey 2001-2006
- Author
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Bardenheier, BH, Bullard, KM, Caspersen, CJ, Cheng, YJ, Gregg, EW, and Geiss, LS
- Subjects
DIABETES RISK ,Aged, 80 and over ,Male ,Science & Technology ,HYPERTENSION ,DYSLIPIDEMIA ,PROGRESSION ,Middle Aged ,Models, Theoretical ,PREVALENCE ,Prediabetic State ,Endocrinology & Metabolism ,TYPE-2 ,REDUCTION ,Cross-Sectional Studies ,Socioeconomic Factors ,PREHYPERTENSION ,Humans ,ADIPOSITY ,Female ,Waist Circumference ,Life Sciences & Biomedicine ,RESISTANCE ,11 Medical and Health Sciences ,Aged - Abstract
OBJECTIVE To use structural modeling to test a hypothesized model of causal pathways related with prediabetes among older adults in the U.S. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Cross-sectional study of 2,230 older adults (≥50 years) without diabetes included in the morning fasting sample of the 2001–2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Demographic data included age, income, marital status, race/ethnicity, and education. Behavioral data included physical activity (metabolic equivalent hours per week for vigorous or moderate muscle strengthening, walking/biking, and house/yard work), and poor diet (refined grains, red meat, added sugars, solid fats, and high-fat dairy). Structural-equation modeling was performed to examine the interrelationships among these variables with family history of diabetes, high blood pressure, BMI, large waist (waist circumference: women, ≥35 inches; men, ≥40 inches), triglycerides ≥200 mg/dL, and total and HDL (≥60 mg/dL) cholesterol. RESULTS After dropping BMI and total cholesterol, our best-fit model included three single factors: socioeconomic position (SEP), physical activity, and poor diet. Large waist had the strongest direct effect on prediabetes (0.279), followed by male sex (0.270), SEP (−0.157), high blood pressure (0.122), family history of diabetes (0.070), and age (0.033). Physical activity had direct effects on HDL (0.137), triglycerides (−0.136), high blood pressure (−0.132), and large waist (−0.067); poor diet had direct effects on large waist (0.146) and triglycerides (0.148). CONCLUSIONS Our results confirmed that, while including factors known to be associated with high risk of developing prediabetes, large waist circumference had the strongest direct effect. The direct effect of SEP on prediabetes suggests mediation by some unmeasured factor(s). The growing prevalence of diabetes, combined with clear evidence that lifestyle change can reduce diabetes risk in high-risk individuals, has led the American Diabetes Association to recommend diabetes screening in clinical settings for adults aged ≥45 years who have no risk factors other than age (1). Persons with blood glucose levels that are higher than those considered normal but not high enough to be classified as diabetes are at increased risk for type 2 diabetes (2,3). This state is termed “prediabetes,” and its prevalence in 2005–2008, based on fasting glucose or HbA1c levels, reached 50% for U.S. adults aged ≥65 years. For this age group, diagnosed diabetes is projected to reach 26.7 million by 2050, or 55% of all diabetes cases (4). In 2007, spending on diabetes care for adults aged ≥65 years accounted for $64.8 billion (56%) of direct diabetes medical costs—$41.1 billion for institutional care alone. Identifying older adults with prediabetes may help delay or prevent type 2 diabetes, thereby reducing morbidity and healthcare costs. After adjusting for race/ethnicity, sex, and age, prediabetes is associated with obesity (5), high blood pressure (6), lipid abnormalities (7), family history of diabetes (8), and specific physical activity and dietary patterns (9). To our knowledge, no studies have examined all of these factors simultaneously as a system of multiple pathways leading to prediabetes. Available research allows us to hypothesize a causal model that depicts the relationships of factors related to the development of prediabetes in terms of direct effects and indirect (i.e., mediator) effects. Unlike traditional regression models that treat each covariate in the model as an independent direct effect on prediabetes, we can assess all relevant pathways of reported factors as independent and/or dependent (i.e., mediator) factors leading to prediabetes at once. Focusing our analysis on adults aged ≥50 years provides information that could stimulate thinking concerning ways to reduce diabetes risk for the Medicare population and those who will soon be in the Medicare population. As such, we used structural-equation modeling to test our hypothesized model, using data from a nationally representative survey of the U.S. population.
- Published
- 2013