Progression to diabetes by baseline glycemic status among middle-aged and older adults in the United States, 2006-2014.

Aims: Primary prevention studies have indicated that structured lifestyle change programs in adults with an annual diabetes risk of 4.7% are cost-effective. However, few population-based studies have quantified the risk of diabetes among adults with prediabetes.
Methods: We used the nationally representative U.S. Health and Retirement Study to identify adults aged ≥ 52 years with prediabetes (A1c: 5.7% - 6.4%) in 2006 and followed them to 2014 to assess diabetes status defined by A1c ≥ 6.5% in 2010 or 2014 or by self-report of a diabetes diagnosis by various risk factors.
Results: Among the 1,406 adults with prediabetes (average 4.7 years of follow-up), risk factors significantly associated with subsequent incident diabetes with adjusted annual risk of diabetes ≥ 4.7% were: male gender (4.8%); aged 52-64 years (5.0%); Black race (5.5%); obesity (body mass index (kg/m ² ) ≥ 30.0, 6.8%); large waist circumference (women: > 35 in.; men: > 40 in., 4.9%); C-reactive protein levels ≥ 3 ug/L (5.5%); treated for high cholesterol (4.7%); treated for hypertension (5.3%); and moderate mobility loss (4.8%).
Conclusions: Primary prevention interventions among adults with prediabetes who also have moderate mobility loss or well-known risk factors for diabetes are likely to be cost-effective.
Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)