1. Financial Cycle in the Bulgarian Economy and Its Interaction with the Business Cycle.
- Author
-
Karamisheva, Tania, Markova, Gergana, Zahariev, Boyan, and Pachedzhiev, Svilen
- Subjects
BUSINESS cycles ,MACROECONOMICS ,ECONOMIC indicators ,BULGARIAN economic policy ,PRINCIPAL components analysis - Abstract
This study proposes an estimate of the phases of the financial cycle in the Bulgarian economy using a variety of financial and macroeconomic indicators and investigates its interaction with the business cycle. For assessing the financial cycle in Bulgaria two alternative approaches are applied. The first one is based on the use of the band-pass filter and the principal component analysis. The second one relies on a structural unobserved components model. According to both methods the length of the financial cycle is estimated in the range of 11-12 years, which fits well within the widely accepted in the academic literature range of 8 to 30 years. At the same time the business cycle is found to exceed the generally assumed maximal length of 8 years. The results from both approaches indicate, that the financial cycle in Bulgaria is to a large extent synchronised with the business cycle. Another finding of our research is that in 2017 the Bulgarian economy is entering an initial phase of cyclical risk accumulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019