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We revisit the twin deficits hypothesis (budget and trade deficits) for the United States during 1791–2019, using the system-equation ADL test for threshold cointegration proposed by Li (2017). This model can demonstrate the existence of both asymmetric adjustment and asymmetric role in the relationship between trade and budget deficits. Our empirical evidence suggests a nonlinear long-run relationship between the two variables, thus finding the presence of the twin deficits hypothesis. Further, we find time–varying cointegration between the two, and an asymmetric adjustment process. Budget deficits play a vital adjustment role at low regimes (when error-correction terms are below the threshold of 1.11), and trade deficits play an important adjustment role at higher regimes (when error-correction terms are above the threshold of 1.11). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The countries of the Arabian Gulf and the Indian subcontinent shared ancient historical relations, and the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman were the link linking trade between the Indus Basin and Mesopotamia, which was evidenced by archaeological discoveries in the region. Arab navigation in Indian waters was common many centuries before Islam, and the Arabic language reached the Indian subcontinent at the hands of Arab merchants and navigators before Islam. When Islam appeared and the Arabs embraced it, they included merchants and sailors who took it upon themselves to spread the Islamic religion in the regions they reached in Their sea trips. The maritime routes taken by trade exchange ships between the Arabian Gulf and the Indian subcontinent were characterized by the stability of their features and directions since ancient times, and the list of trade exchange between the Arabian Gulf, India and Ceylon varied, whether in basic or luxury goods, but the trade balance favored India. The quantity of its exports exceeded the exports of the Arab Gulf countries, and its goods reached Europe via the Arabian Gulf and the Euphrates River, and then moved overland to the ports of the Levant and Egypt, and the Europeans (especially Venetian merchants) then transported and disposed of them in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate changes on cultural services trade balances in China, Japan, the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany from 2006 to 2015. These six countries represent dominant players whose experiences reflect global impacts. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models test for J‐curve effects. Cultural distance matrices combined with cluster analysis explore how cultural proximity influences trade structures. Results demonstrate a J‐curve effect in China contrasting with a reverse J‐curve in the United States. China and Japan form one cultural trade cluster distinct from a Western bloc of the United States, United Kingdom, and France. This signifies emerging economies have developed unique cultural trade models. The research enriches empirical evidence on exchange rate impacts for understudied cultural services trade. Introducing cultural distance provides a novel perspective and policy insights for emerging economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to assess the nexus among oil price (OP), renewable energy consumption (REC) and trade balance (TB) for India using annual time series data for the time period 1985–2019. In particular, the authors examine whether REC improves India's TB in the context of high oil import dependence. Design/methodology/approach: The study uses autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) bound testing approach that has the advantage of yielding estimates of long-run and short-run parameters simultaneously. Moreover, the small sample properties of this approach are superior to other multivariate cointegration techniques. Fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) are also applied to test the robustness of the results. The causality among the series is investigated through block exogeneity test based on vector error correction model. Findings: The findings based on ARDL bounds testing approach indicate that OPs exert a negative impact on TB of India in both long run and short run, whereas REC has a favorable impact on the TB. In particular, 1% increase in OPs decreases TBs by 0.003% and a 1% increase in REC improves TB by 0.011%. The results of FMOLS and DOLS corroborate the findings from ARDL estimates. The results of block exogeneity test suggest unidirectional causation from OPs to TB; OPs to REC and REC to TB. Practical implications: The study underscore the importance of renewable energy as a potential tool to curtail trade deficits in the context of Indian economy. Our results suggest that the policymakers must pay attention to the hindrances in augmentation of renewable energy usage and try to capitalize on the resulting gains for the TB. Social implications: Climate change is a major challenge for developing countries like India. Renewable energy sector is considered an important instrument toward attaining the twin objectives of environmental sustainability and employment generation. This study underscores another role of REC as a tool to achieve a sustainable trade position, which may help India save her valuable forex reserves for broader objectives of economic development. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that probes the dynamic nexus among OPs, REC and TB in Indian context. From a policy standpoint, the study underscores the importance of renewable energy as a potential tool to curtail trade deficits in context of India. From a theoretical perspective, the study extends the literature on the determinants of TB by identifying the role of REC in shaping TB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cubic fuzzy graphs (CFGs) offer greater utility as compared to interval-valued fuzzy graphs and fuzzy graphs due to their ability to represent the degree of membership for vertices and edges using both interval and fuzzy number forms. The significance of these concepts motivates us to analyze and interpret intricate networks, enabling more effective decision making and optimization in various domains, including transportation, social networks, trade networks, and communication systems. This paper introduces the concepts of vertex and edge connectivity in CFGs, along with discussions on partial cubic fuzzy cut nodes and partial cubic fuzzy edge cuts, and presents several related results with the help of some examples to enhance understanding. In addition, this paper introduces the idea of partial cubic α-strong and partial cubic δ-weak edges. An example is discussed to explain the motivation behind partial cubic α-strong edges. Moreover, it delves into the introduction of generalized vertex and edge connectivity in CFGs, along with generalized partial cubic fuzzy cut nodes and generalized partial cubic fuzzy edge cuts. Relevant results pertaining to these concepts are also discussed. As an application, the concept of generalized partial cubic fuzzy edge cuts is applied to identify regions that are most affected by trade deficits resulting from street crimes. Finally, the research findings are compared with the existing method to demonstrate their suitability and creativity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the neoliberal regime, food policy in Mexico focused on the paradigm of ensuring physical and economic access to safe and cheap food; However, the measures to meet this objective caused, among other things, a trade deficit in basic foods such as corn, orientation of production towards export crops, environmental and people's health deterioration. In response to this problem, in the mid-1990s, the concept of food sovereignty gained strength. This paradigm contributed to making visible the problems faced by small family productive units and the importance of including in public policy actions that respect the diversity of cultivated seeds, traditional agricultural practices, the care of resources and the reproduction of culturally accepted foods. In this context, the objective of this work is to characterize corn production in three lake regions of Michoacán (Mexico) from the perspective of food sovereignty and, based on this, raise considerations for its strengthening. A comparative analysis was carried out on the approaches of the food sovereignty paradigm based on own information obtained through a survey applied to corn producers from three lake regions of the state of Michoacán. The results show the coexistence of diverse production systems ranging from traditional to intensive production in each region, with manifest experiences of food sovereignty in the Pátzcuaro region and silent in the Cuitzeo region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an emerging economy, Turkey has experienced a significant structural transformation in the last twenty years. Within this period, Turkey has increased to the eleventh rank for international tourist arrivals in the world (UNWTO 2023). However, in recent years, there has been a rapid depreciation of the national currency, raising the question of how this affects the tourism trade. Using bilateral data and considering non-linearities, we investigate the exchange rate-tourism balance nexus for Turkey and its most tourist sender partners by applying ARDL and NARDL modelling. We find that (i) when the Turkish Lira (TL) appreciates, the tourism balance is positively affected in the German and UK models in the short-run and in the Russian and Netherlands models in the long-run; (ii) the depreciation of the TL, on the other hand, has a positive effect on the tourism balances for France and the UK in the short-run. Therefore, either the increase or decrease in the exchange rate (except for Russia in the short-run) affects the tourism balance insignificantly or positively. These findings imply that policymakers should focus more on country-specific tourism policies to attract more tourists to the country rather than on exchange rate policies to manage the tourism balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

T he global economy significantly relies on the air conditioning sector, which has been gaining increased importance worldwide and in Türkiye due to the impact of global warming, climate change, and the diminishing energy resources. As a multifaceted industry encompassing air conditioning, heating, installation, insulation, refrigeration and ventilation sector has been adapting to the growing demand for environmentally friendly and energy-efficient solutions. This study analyzes air conditioning industry of Türkiye and its sub-product groups in terms of its ability to compete internationally, spanning from 2001 to 2021. To assess competitiveness, we employed various analytical tools, including Balassa's Revealed Comparative Advantages Index (RCA), Vollrath Indices (RXA, RMP, RTA, RC), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantages Index (RSCA), Trade Balance Index (TBI), and Product Mapping method. Notably, there is no research that scrutinize the competitiveness of the Turkish air conditioning industry utilizing the Product Mapping. The study findings emphasize that air conditioning industry of Türkiye has competitiveness. Within the sub-product group, the analysis reveals that Türkiye has competitiveness for 11 products, a near-limit competitiveness for 3 products, and a lack of competitiveness for 10 products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically and theoretically investigates the relationship between budget balances and external balances, the so-called twin deficit hypothesis. Using the US post-World War II data, I estimate a time-varying structural vector autoregressive model to evaluate the effects of structural breaks on this relationship. The empirical results reveal that the relationship is significantly time varying: (1) an increase in government spending and the consequent budget deficits tend to cause trade deficits in the Bretton Woods era; (2) in contrast, an increase in government spending tends to induce trade surpluses in the post-Bretton Woods era; and (3) with the exceptions of the 1980s and 2010s, government spending shocks cause trade deficits under a floating exchange regime. Using the open economy New Keynesian model with rule-of-thumb consumers, I find that a shift in exchange rate regimes helps in understanding empirical results (1) and (2). Moreover, slowly adjusted taxes inform our comprehension of exceptions in the 1980s, whereas zero lower bound aids our explanation of exceptions in the 2010s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the influences of institutions, the Internet and mobile usage on the trade balance of African countries between 2003 and 2017. Our empirical results have been estimated with a panel‐corrected standard error method (PSCE) and they have been confirmed by several alternative techniques. First, the increase of internet usage and mobile usage has a significant negative effect on total and inter‐continental trade balances while these factors improve the intra‐African trade balances. Second, better institutions appear to have a negative impact on the total‐, inter‐, and intra‐African trade balances – in other words, better institutions appear to stimulate imports rather than exports. This observation explains the decreasing trends in the current account balances of African countries. Third, the combined effect of the three factors (institutions, internet, and mobile use together) has a significant positive impact on all trade balances: total‐, inter‐, and intra‐continental. Our study shows that an improvement in institutional quality acts as a mitigating factor for any negative impact internet\mobile development might cause on the trade balances of African countries. Further, our analysis examines the influence of institutions, internet usage, and mobile usage on the two parts of the trade: exports and imports. We observe that internet and mobile can influence negatively and differently impact the two wings of the balance trade. However, all improvements in institutions and their associations with internet usage and mobile usage have a significant positive impact on the trade balance especially on exporting activities of African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the factors influencing the achievement of a mutually agreed solution (MAS) in international trade disputes, drawing insights and patterns from the WTO dispute experience. Through an in-depth examination of prevailing literature and compliance theories, the research pinpoints various factors that impact the achievement of MAS in WTO disputes, including the dynamics of economic size, experience in WTO litigation, reputation as a respondent, and costs in time. The results, obtained through a probit model, reveal the significance of economic size in achieving MAS, where the complainant's GDP surpasses that of the respondent but not the per capita GDP and trade ratio. Originally, this study discloses that experience in WTO litigation as a disputing party and reputation as the respondent also influence the willingness to settle amicably. While this research primarily centres on the WTO, its findings, derived from WTO data, have broader implications. The identified factors are not only pertinent to WTO members but also hold relevance for solving trade disputes between states. Recognizing these factors is crucial for policymakers across different trade platforms to devise strategies that bolster collaboration and elevate the efficacy of their respective dispute-resolution mechanisms. By illuminating the complexities of the decision-making processes in achieving MAS, this study offers invaluable insights. These insights are instrumental for all stakeholders involved in trade disputes, guiding them towards forging consensus-driven solutions that uphold the principles of just and balanced international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the backdrop of criticism that the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement has disproportionately favored China, particularly in agricultural trade, there has been a surge in Pakistan's imports, leading to a trade deficit. This study attempts to evaluate the impact of CPFTA 1&2 on the vegetable exports of Pakistan which is an important sector of the agricultural industry. A panel data set of Pakistan's vegetable exports to its trading partners from 2003 to 2021 was analyzed with the extensively used gravity model of trade. The vegetable export data was sourced from the International Trade Centre (ITC) which is based on the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The results suggest that the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement (CPFTA-I) has a positive association with Pakistan's vegetable exports to China. However, trade liberalization with Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia plays a more substantial role in driving Pakistan's vegetable exports. CPFTA-II has not had a measurable or statistically significant impact on the vegetable exports of Pakistan as this period was highly influenced by COVID-19. The results of colonialism variables show that Pakistan is exporting more to countries with the same colonial history. Moreover, the results of the geographical variable suggest that Pakistan should explore more close markets to expand vegetable exports. Policy implications suggest the need to reduce trade costs, leverage CPEC infrastructure, enrich trade relations with neighboring countries, and involve business professionals in policy negotiations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Council completed the legislative procedure to establish the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on April 25, 2023, which will be launched in 2027. The iron and steel sector is the main target of the forthcoming CBAM due to the industry's energy-intensive consumption with high carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, minimal existing research has been conducted in this regard. This study employs GTAP-e 11.0 and TOPSIS models to estimate the effects of CBAM implementation on the major nations around the world from 2027 to 2030, examining countries' GDP, social welfare, iron and steel production, trade balance, and CO2 emissions to the global environment. This study concludes: (1) The GDP and social welfare of important iron and steel trade partners throughout the world will be significantly impacted by the application of CBAM. Most nations, including those in the EU, will experience negative GDP effects, with China undergoing the most pronounced social welfare declines followed by India. In contrast, the EU27 will benefit the most in terms of social welfare, followed by the US, Japan, and Russia. (2) Iron and steel production will decrease in all countries outside the EU, but it will have a positive impact on the trade balance of most countries. (3) The CO2 emissions of all countries except for the EU and Japan will decrease, with a positive impact on preventing carbon leakage in the international iron and steel trade. (4) Comprehensive analysis demonstrates that the EU will benefit the most, and China will suffer the most from CBAM application. Based on the above conclusions, this study proposes corresponding policy recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effect of bilateral air connectivity on bilateral service trade flows. Our service trade data includes 'commercial', 'transport', 'travel', and 'government' services. We developed a reduced-form gravity-type model using the Chinese data. An instrument variable (IV) approach is adopted to address the endogeneity issue between bilateral air connectivity and the service trade variables. Our key results are: (a) increasing the number of direct routes can significantly promote bilateral service export and import trades; (b) the average route-level traffic density has only marginal positive effects; (c) improving air connectivity would enlarge China's overall service trade deficit, because the transport and travel services imports are promoted more than their exports; (d) The 'commercial' service exports can be stimulated more than the imports, making China achieve larger commercial service trade surplus by improving bilateral air connectivity. •Increasing the number of direct air routes significantly promotes bilateral service trades in China. •Improving air connectivity enlarges China's overall service trade deficit. •Enhancing bilateral air connectivity stimulates China's commercial service exports more than imports. •China's growing international air transport, facilitated by the Belt-and-Road Initiative, has had a substantial impact on bilateral service trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Jockeying ahead of the 2024 national elections took center stage in Indonesia's political landscape in 2023. The selection of President Jokowi's son for a vice-presidential ticket signaled the continuation and intensification of dynastic politics. The economy faced headwinds, but Indonesia's trade balance remained in surplus and inflation was tamed. The government promoted its green transition agenda while facing pushback from local communities on environmental and labor issues. In foreign policy, the country hosted the ASEAN Summit, and Jokowi engaged in a flurry of diplomatic travels in the twilight of his presidency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study delves into the intricate relationship between fluctuations in the real exchange rate and the trade balance, situated within the framework of a 'two-country' trade theory model. Despite a wealth of prior research on the impact of exchange rates on international trade, the precise extent of this influence remains a contentious issue. To bridge this gap, our research adopts a pioneering approach, employing three distinct artificial intelligence-based influence measurement methods: Mean Decrease Impurity (MDI), Permutation Importance Measurement (PIM), and Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP). These sophisticated techniques provide a nuanced and differentiated perspective, enabling specific and quantitative measurements of the real exchange rate's impact on the trade balance. The outcomes derived from the application of these innovative methods shed light on the substantial contribution of the real exchange rate to the trade balance. Notably, the real exchange rate (RER) emerges as the second most influential factor within the 'two-country' trade model. This empirical evidence, drawn from a panel dataset of 78 nations over the period 1992–2021, addresses crucial gaps in the existing literature, offering a finer-grained understanding of how real exchange rates shape international trade dynamics. Importantly, our study implies that policymakers should recognize the pivotal role of the real exchange rate as a key determinant of trade flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The large-scale production and economy of French freshwater fisheries is not documented in the scientific literature. This article fills this knowledge gap by synthesizing the data collected since the post-war period, including a large part of the grey literature. France presents a wide variety of surface waters, benefiting from a reduction in pollution and a growing population with an emphasis on leisure activities and on locally sourced food products. Despite this favorable geographical, ecological and human situation, French freshwater fisheries have been in decline since the mid-1970s with a chronically negative trade balance for aquatic products. During this period, numbers of commercial fishers have decreased three-fold due to their affiliation to an agricultural status, and to their dependence on migratory species such as eel, shad and lamprey, which are all in decline. Simultaneously, numbers of anglers have also seen a slow but continuous decline, cushioned somewhat in the last 10 years thanks to the creation of sub-annual fishing cards and the expansion of the total to include the younger classes. Vestiges of a non-commercial fishery, similar to recreational subsistence fishing and employing gear such as dip nets, traps, long lines or even gillnets, have been maintained in a much reduced state around large rivers as well as in the marshes and estuaries of the Atlantic coast. In this detailed study of these different categories of fishing practices in the mid-2010s, we estimate numbers of fishers at 2 million active anglers, 4000 subsistence fishers, and 400 commercial fishers. Their catches are roughly 7600, 200 and 1200 tonnes/year, respectively, for a total of 9000 tonnes/year. The major part of the overall economic worth, estimated at 980,000 K€, is attributable to recreational fishers (anglers). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To analyze the competitiveness of Mexican vanilla in the international market. Design/Methodology/Approach: The relative trade balance (RTB) and the revealed comparative advantage index (RCAI) were calculated to analyze the competitiveness of the Mexican vanilla in the international market. Both crushed and whole vanilla beans were evaluated. Results: Around 1% of the total vanilla area is harvested in Mexico, representing 6% of the world production volume. The Mexican market is competitive in the international whole vanilla beans market, but not in the case of crushed or ground vanilla. Study Limitations/Implications: The SIAVI portal was discontinued. Therefore, the international vanilla trade data could only be retrieved for the period ending on November 2021. Findings/Conclusions: The Mexican market has potential for the development of vanilla production. However, current production is practically absorbed by the local market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although oil prices likely influence the trade balance via macroeconomy channels (i.e. exchange rates and income), less widely recognized is the possibility of such an effect in investigating the hypothesis of a J-Curve. Thus, the primary thrust of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil prices on the J-Curve using bilateral trade data between Korea and her 14 largest partners. We uncover that the price of crude oil is indeed important in affecting the Korean trade balance and thus further validity evidence of the J-Curve. We further discover that incorporating exchange rate asymmetry provides more evidence supporting the J-Curve in the Korean trade balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's merchandise trade surplus has reached an all-time high and is likely to rise further. A key driver appears to be a policy push to further bolster Chinese domestic manufacturing production, implying the danger of significant overcapacities. China's imbalance between domestic production and consumption implies that China draws on the domestic demand of other countries to sustain its economic growth. It does so at the potential expense of production and employment of those trading partners with high trade deficits with China. As this constellation could be the source of growing trade conflicts, this article analyses China's growing trade surplus in several dimensions with a focus on Chinas trade relation to the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main economic challenge is rising aggregate demand, which leaves the economy short on resources and leads to expanding fiscal and external account deficits. The current study uses autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to evaluate the twin deficit hypothesis in the context of Pakistan in an effort to find an answer to this question. The study uses augmented ARDL, popularized by McNown et al. (Appl Econ 50:1509–1521, 2018) and Sam et al. (Econ Model 80:130–141, 2019), to address the degenerate problems that might arise while applying the ARDL approach. Two separate models were estimated, one with the current account balance as the dependent variable and the other with the balance of trade. In the long run, both models confirm the conventional interpretation of twin deficit hypothesis in Pakistan, with the causality running only from the fiscal deficit to the balance of trade. Other control variables in both models are crucial in understanding the current account balance and balance of trade. According to models, an increase in the exchange rate, as measured by the log of the nominal effective exchange rate, improves both current account and trade balance, verifying the elasticity approach in the long run. The openness of the economy is found to worsen current account balance, and the result is statistically significant. Contrarily, openness has been improved trade balance, but the result is statistically insignificant. To control a large and persistent external deficit, the government has to reduce its fiscal deficit, and such a strategy would be successful when monetary policy is accommodative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In markets for credence goods, sellers are better informed than their customers about the quality that yields the highest surplus from trade. This paper studies second-degree price discrimination in such markets. It shows that discrimination regards the amount of advice offered to customers and that it leads to a different distortion depending on the main source of heterogeneity among consumers. If the heterogeneity is mainly in the expected cost of efficient service, the distortion involves overprovision of quality. By contrast, if consumers differ mainly in the surplus generated whenever the consumer's needs are met, the inefficiency involves underprovision of quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study aims to examine the effects of trade balance, economic growth, green field investment, energy use, financial development, and urbanization on environmental sustainability in BRICS countries. This study proceeds to estimate the long-term association using the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and the dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) panel estimation methods for the years 1991–2020. This empirical study finds that the ratio of exports to imports has a negative effect on environmental degradation. This indicates that increasing the trade balance eventually leads to environmental sustainability, which finally improves living standards and environmental conditions in the BRICS countries. The findings further show that green field investment and financial development substantially improve environmental sustainability, but energy use, urbanization, and economic growth desperately negatively affect environmental sustainability. Additionally, this research finds a unidirectional relationship of environmental sustainability with trade balance, green field investment, energy use, urbanization, and economic growth rate. This study states how BRICS countries can be protected through trade balance controlling environmental degradation. Thus, this research provides improved orientations to the policymakers of BRICS countries to design policy in favor of the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to look deeper into the long-standing phenomenon of the United States' large trade deficits with China by examining both countries' bilateral trading structures (character). In this investigation, we, for the first time, redefine the traditional bilateral trade balance (BTB) ratio based on economic impact content as production-driven BTB ( X pd ) and non-production-driven BTB ( X npd ). This is done because, while the former undergoes an economic activity within the United States, the latter doesn't. The traditional ratio, i.e. total export/total import, doesn't technically allow such an investigation. Hence, the proposed methodology of this study, using these two new forms of BTBs, may provide new perspectives to this phenomenon for U.S. policymakers. The main empirical finding may make it imperative to analyze the US BTB with China using the methodology proposed because the independent variables of the study's models have different effects on X pd and X npd . For example, while real depreciation in the USD improves X npd for 13 industries, the same change in the USD improves X pd for only seven. Additionally, this methodology allows U.S. policymakers to compare/review the US BTB based on economic impact contents through X pd and X npd separately. Last, it can be interpreted that the United States benefits from decreasing trade-policy uncertainty in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work examines the elasticities of the Brazilian agricultural trade balance in a dynamic, or non-linear, perspective since emerging economies such as Brazil are quite susceptible to internal and external shocks that can produce asymmetries in these elasticities. To this end, data from January 2000 to July 2019 are used, along with a time-varying cointegration analysis. The results suggest that the elasticities of the net exports in relation to the real exchange rate and foreign income were positive and elastic in practically the entire period considered. Domestic income had a negative influence, but with inelastic impacts and less variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the asymmetric impact of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) on the trade balance in GCC countries over the period of 2000:Q1 to 2017:Q4. The empirical findings of the nonlinear pooled mean group (PMG) estimator reveal the presence of a J-curve shape where an increase in NEER (currency depreciation) deteriorates the trade balance in the short run and improves it in the long run. Findings also prove that the trade balance's response to NEER positive changes is greater compared to negative changes. The policy implication of these findings reveals that NEER is a useful tool to sustain the trade balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the sectoral impact of the implementation of a "green" employer of last resort (ELR) program in the US, based on an environmental modification of an extended Kurz's (1985) multiplier framework and data from OECD Input-Output tables. We use these multipliers to estimate the impact of an "optimal" ELR, designed to maximize the impact on both output and employment while minimizing both imports and carbon emissions. We then test several alternative policy scenarios based upon different compositions of US government expenditure. We provide evidence that (1) investing in the optimal sectors in terms of output, employment, CO2, and import multipliers does not always deliver optimal results in the aggregate; (2) ecological sustainability for the US economy also fosters import sustainability; (3) a rebounding effect in CO2 emissions may be tamed if the ELR satisfies the abovementioned optimality condition, though this undermines its success in terms of output and employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 1951 and 1966, Australia engaged in an expanding trade with China without extending diplomatic recognition. The Liberal–Country Coalition government not only allowed, but encouraged this connection, mostly by facilitating the exchanges of private citizens and even officials and, increasingly, providing export subsidies. It did so selectively, balancing between the eagerness of businesses and some officials, the pressure from the United States, and domestic critiques seeking either a more total containment of China or to pursue diplomacy with Beijing. By the end of the period, Canberra settled on the formula of making a sizable trade surplus with China without taking the political risk of either conducting formal diplomacy or modifying existing trade restrictions. The coincidence of needs saw the trade relationship assuming some significance in Australia's agricultural sector, especially wheat production. But the political limitation to this trade also became clear, as did the constraints suffered by its Labor critics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporary trade barriers, such as safeguards, is a measure to rescue the economy in such a way as to protect domestic industries from foreign competitors. Safeguards provide opportunities for domestic industries to make structural adjustments and reshape their business process to increase their competitiveness during the validity period. Indonesia's government has imposed safeguards for most textile sub-industries, from the upstream industry (yarn and fibres) to the downstream garment industry and other related textile industries. This paper aims to evaluate whether the application of safeguards meets its objectives in improving the competitiveness of domestic industry against its foreign competitors with a long observation period. It is found that the effectiveness of the application of safeguards was limited to rescuing the trade balance. In terms of export competitiveness, safeguards have not been effective in increasing the export competitiveness of the textile industry in the world market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an instrument supporting the realization of EU climate neutrality targets by 2050 and encouraging decarbonization outside its borders, the current proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is facing opposition from some countries. Focusing on Brazil, this paper evaluates the impacts of the CBAM on the Brazilian economy through a comprehensive analysis of various scenarios based on the potential EU implementation of the CBAM and Brazil's climate scenarios. Results obtained in this research alleviate concerns of detrimental and competitiveness losses from Brazilian industries. Rather, the implementation of the EU CBAM improves the trade balance of Brazil's Energy-Intensive Industries (EII). The relatively low CO2 contents of Brazilian EII are elemental to this result, while contributions of carbon-free technologies in electricity generation are also critical factors in maximizing this trade surplus. Other consequential factors affecting these results are the contributions of CO2 removal from Brazil's forestry of land used, and homogeneity of CBAM-imposed products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper examines the determinants of ICT-enabled service trade, in particular, the relative importance of human and physical capital. The analysis is carried out for 45 major service trading countries as well as for separate country groups classified based on ICT-service trade balance. It is found that mobile connectivity, foreign investment, world demand, growing manufacturing sector, and more favourable business environment are important determinants of net ICT-enabled service exports. The result is in contrast with traditional services like travel and transportation. Broadband connection, as well as mobile, has a significant impact on net export of travel and transportation. Better human capital is favourable for services overall whereas, travel-transport sector engages low-skilled workers. The results have important policy implications for developing countries constrained by the availability of human and physical capital. The service sector, especially ICT-enabled services, can play a critical role in the post-pandemic recovery by generating employment opportunities and ensuring stable foreign exchange earnings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research shows that misreporting of trade is rampant, which markedly reduces the quality of reported bilateral trade data. We devise a novel methodology to correct for misreported bilateral trade while accounting for the composition of product types and for trading partners. Based on bilateral data for 196 countries in the world at the product level over the period 1996–2017, we find that (i) our corrected trade data are significantly more reliable than reported data; (ii) our corrected data are significantly more reliable than data based on conventional misreporting correction methods; (iii) corrected trade balances are often quite distinct from their reported counterparts; (iv) capital flight is the most important source of misreporting and (v) the misreporting propensity tends to cluster geographically, with the main offenders often deviating from common perceptions in the literature. Based on estimates of the gravity model, we show that geographical characteristics are more influential than institutional variables in explaining misreporting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

'Blue economy' is becoming a buzzword for high economic growth with environmental sustainability, which is a reflection of the experiences of both developed and developing countries. A growing 'blue voice' emanates from a wide spectrum of countries about the efficacy of development strategies. Empirical evidence indicates that there is no 'stylized fact' about the contribution of blue economy to a country's GDP. As a satellite account, the blue economy contributed 4.1% of India's GDP in 2016. Accounting of the sector is important to identify priority sectors for policy planning in areas such as investment, employment, technology and other aspects of financial decisions. The blue economy value added in India is not only growing faster than the overall GDP, but is also becoming resilient to withstand adverse effects of the global exogenous shocks. Blue trade is becoming robust and is growing faster than the overall trade of a large number of littoral states. In India, blue trade shared more than 10% of the overall trade and openness of the sector was more than 100% during 2011-16. In blue trade, merchandise and services trade registered a favourable trade balance during 2008-22. The blue economy is likely to drive the Indian economy on a high-growth path after effective implementation of the National Blue Economy Advisory Council. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research analyzes the factors that affect the trade balance in 12 APEC countries because trade balance is one of the important factors for economic growth. The level of prosperity and economy of a country can be measured by its active trading activities. This activity can be a source of income for countries. So, it can be said that the strength of a country’s economy is its trade. Through trade, a country can establish diplomatic relations with other countries. This research uses panel data model with trade balance as a dependent variable, and gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), and inflation as independent variables. This research uses data from 2011-2020. The result is that GDP does not have significance with the trade balance, FDI has a positive significance for trade balance, and inflation has a negative significance with trade balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Internet of Things (IoT) has significantly impacted international trade, benefiting national and international economies. It has increased trade and financial liberalization in many countries. Ecological and environmental protection have become critical issues due to the fast mobility of money and commodities. The purpose of this paper is to find a way to balance foreign trade growth with environmental protection. We aim to achieve this by using IoT to establish a co-integration model that takes into account the comprehensive environmental index, imports and exports, and the capital-labor ratio. We have collected data from Quanzhou City between 2011 and 2019, based on various environmental pollution indicators, import and export trade volume, capital-labor ratio, and other factors. Our analysis includes an examination of the empirical model of foreign trade and the ecological environment, as well as the impulse response. Additionally, we used prediction variance decomposition and the Granger causality test to understand the coordinated relationship between foreign trade and the ecological environment. Our results demonstrate that when the volume of exports (EX) increases by 1 percent, the ecological environment in Quanzhou City is negatively impacted by about 0.06%. On the other hand, when the volume of imports (IM) increases by 1 percent, there is a 0.26% positive effect on the ecological environment of the city. Finally, when the capital-to-labor ratio (K) increases by 1 percent, there is a 0.40% deterioration of the city's ecological environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the stochastic frontier gravity model is applied to analyze the trade potential between China and Nepal and the prospects of Lanzhou-Kathmandu South Asian rail-road freight trains (LKSARFT). Based on the statistical data, we test the Exports Efficiency (EE), Bilateral Trade Efficiency (BTE), Exports Trade Potential (ETP), Bilateral Trade Potential (BTP), Extended Exports Trade Potential (EETP), Extended Bilateral Trade Potential (EBTP), Improved Exports Trade Potential (IETP) and Improved Bilateral Trade Potential (IBTP) between China and Nepal, the following analysis results can be found: for the bilateral trade model, the bilateral non-efficiency factor decreasing at a rate of 0.057 with time increasing, bilateral trade increasing at a rate of 0.057 with time increasing. For the exports model, the exports non-efficiency factor increasing at a rate of 0.004 with time increasing, exports trade decreasing at a rate of 0.057 with time increasing. The BTE between China and Nepal increases when time changes, the EE from China to Nepal remains constant changing during the 18 years. The changing range of BTE is 0.002–0.05; the changing range of EE from China to Nepal is over 0.1, larger than the BTE. The BTE and EE ranking among the eight South Asian countries are ranking fifth and fourth during the 18 years. exports trade resistance from China to Nepal is larger than bilateral trade resistance; The import trade potential from Nepal to China is huge, the focus of bilateral trade between China and Nepal may be changed, there are more goods may be exported from Nepal to China, and China may become trade deficit when trading with Nepal. Then, the development bottlenecks of the LKSARFT are analyzed. Finally, we give policy directions to boost bilateral trade efficiency and tap the potential of bilateral trade between China and Nepal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates the long-term impact of Chinese RMB exchange rate movements on the trade balance between China and the Eastern African Belt and Road Initiative countries. The Pedroni cointegration analysis and the fully modified and dynamic OLS techniques are applied to the dataset from UNComtrade and China Statistical Yearbook 2019. Some specification novelties are the use of imports and exports as independent variables. By so doing, the paper proposes an alternative measure of the trade balance. We find that the RMB exchange rate movements are stable during the sample period and slightly affect the trade balance between China and the Eastern African BRI countries. Additionally, the study does not find evidence supporting the J-curve effect in China-East Africa trade balance. The empirical results suggest that the Eastern African BRI countries would gain much more trading collectively with China than individually. Therefore, the study strongly recommends that the East African Community accelerate its integration process and establish Export Quotas for trade outside the bloc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of exchange rates play a pivotal role in shaping the economic landscape of nations, influencing key indicators such as trade balances, foreign direct investment, and overall economic performance. This research delves into the specific case of Pakistan, aiming to comprehensively analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the country's economic framework. The objective of this study is to focus on evaluating the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and crucial economic indicators, including GDP growth, inflation rates, FDI, CPI, and trade balances. Additionally, we examine the influence of currency volatility on export and import competitiveness, shedding light on the implications for Pakistan's trade dynamics. Methodologically, this study employs a rigorous analysis of historical exchange rate movements in Pakistan, identifying trends and pivotal events that have shaped the country's currency valuations by using correlation, regression and others. Lastly, this study provides insightful recommendations for policymakers to navigate challenges and capitalize on opportunities in shaping Pakistan's economic policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exporting to any country is an important factor in generating income and providing foreign exchange by increasing those exports. The purpose of the study is to determine the feasibility of production and export of dates to Iraq and to use the Box-Jenkins methodology to predict date exports to Iraq for the years 1990-2025 based on time series. They were represented by the number of dates exported to Iraq in the years 1990-2019. Statistical means and methods were used to study the nature of the time series, where it was noted that there is a clear fluctuation in the quantity of exports. The researchers concluded, through the use of the Box-Jenkins methodology, that the appropriate model for predicting the amount of date exports is the ARIMA model (2,2,1) among a group of models that does not have the best values through the criteria adopted for selection. As well as the model (1,0,0) to predict the production quantities of dates. The study concluded to continue to support the agricultural sector, especially production Dates, because Iraq is characterized by different types, as well as the increase in exports, which is an important part in achieving agricultural economic development, as well as the adoption of economic policies that help encourage exports by supporting producers, which achieves returns on the trade balance and foreign currency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous papers investigating the structural determinants of budget deficits in panels of developing and/or developed countries either found that there exists a negative relation between financial development and fiscal balance or that the first is not a significant determinant of the later. This paper asks whether financial development is relevant to explain budget deficits within a country specific context. We use data from Cameroon between 1990 and 2021 and the ARDL bound cointegration technique. Our results show positive significant coefficients in the short-run, statistically not significant coefficients in the long-run and an ECT of - 1.48. In Cameroon, financial liberalization and financial development may lead to fiscal discipline so as to reduce budget deficits progressively. We then recommend enhancing financial development in order to improve the country's fiscal balance management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate changes on trade flows among East Asian countries spanning 1990-2021, using pooled mean group estimator, within the framework of panel data analysis. Findings indicate that world income, trade openness, and the real effective exchange rate strongly affect trade balance, and that the real depreciation of exchange rate exerts strong positive benefits on trade flows in the long run. The study also infers that trade openness and real effective exchange rate had strong influence on exports and imports for Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea in the short run. However, the depreciation of their currencies discouraged imports in the long run. More so, world income strongly affects the exports and imports of Hong Kong and Japan, while trade openness is advantageous for all the countries. The study recommends the continuation of the prevailing tradegrowth pattern, and the existing bilateral pegged exchange rate policy with their trading partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The Polish economy has undergone major challenges and changes over the past few decades. The country's trade flows, in particular, have become more firmly tied to the country's Western neighbors as they have grown in volume. This study examines Poland's trade balances in ten Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) sectors versus the United States of America, first testing for and isolating structural breaks in each time series. These breaks are then included in a set of the cointegration models to examine their macroeconomic determinants. Design/methodology/approach: Linear and nonlinear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models, both with and without dummies corresponding to structural breaks, are estimated. Findings: One key finding is that incorporating these breaks reduces the significance of the real exchange rate in the model, supporting the hypothesis that this variable already incorporates important information. It also results in weaker evidence for cointegration of all variables in certain sectors. Research limitations/implications: This study looks only at one pair of countries, without any third-country effects. Originality/value: An important country pair's trade relations is examined; in addition, the real exchange rate is shown to incorporate economic information that results in structural changes in the economy. The paper extends the existing literature by conducting an analysis of Poland's trade balances with the USA, which have not been studied in such a context so far. A strong point is a broad methodology that lets compare the results the authors obtained with different kinds of models, both linear and nonlinear ones, with and without structural breaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan has limited trade with Central Asian Republics (CARs). Facing with stagnant exports and widening trade gap, CARs offer a great opportunity to Pakistan to diversify and expand its trade. The study analyzed the existing trade profile of Pakistan generally and with Central Asian states particularly. Additionally, the potentials for trade with CARs were also explored. The analysis suggests that trade with the CARs has not been encouraging as trade volume with these countries is nominal as total exports to CARs rose from US$ 40.4 M in 2016 to US$109 M in 202. Similarly imports also grew at nominal rate from US$ 28.0 M IN 2016 to US$ 59.1 M in 2021. Great trade potential exists for trade with Central Asian Countries. Pakistan has comparative advantage in different products like cotton and cotton products, pharmaceuticals, sports items, surgical items, cement, sugar, IT and telecommunication etc. and can export cheaper goods to the Central Asian states. Moreover, Central Asian Republics are rich in natural resources and Pakistan can import a number of products to meet local needs and accelerate economic development. However, Pakistan’s trade with the CARs has been facing upheavals, mainly due to continuous insecurity in Afghanistan, money exchange issues, banking and transaction problems, tariff issues and absence of direct flights. It is recommended that trad with Central Asian states shall be improved through transit and free trade agreements. Moreover, rationalization of tariff and provision of banking facilities in CARs, trade exhibitions, simplification of processes, tourism and cultural and educational exchange programs facilitated by direct flights and easy visa processes can help boost mutual trade. Construction of road and railways infrastructure in Afghanistan and extension of CPEC project to Afghanistan will connect Afghanistan and CARs to Pakistan which will reduce time and cost of transportation and hence will improve trade among Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we take a novel approach to examining the trade imbalances between the Southern Eurozone countries and the Northern Eurozone countries by aggregating them into a Southern Group and Northern Group. We then explore three possible causes of the trade imbalances, which are the fiscal channel, the investment channel and the competitiveness channel. We find that all three channels are important in explaining the emergence and correction of trade imbalances. In particular, we find that an increase in fiscal deficits in the North are twice as effective in reducing trade imbalances than fiscal consolidation in the South. By contrast, increased investment in the North has a similar impact to reduced investment in the South in correcting the trade imbalances. Finally, we find that a depreciation of the South's real exchange rate is associated with a long run deterioration in the Southern Group's trade balance suggesting that the South needs to seek non‐price competitiveness channels to address its trade imbalances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To determine the degree of trade dependence of the Mexican market on imported barley from 1994 to 2021. Design/Methodology/Approach: The growth rates of the barley production variables in the domestic market were estimated, the relative trade balance was calculated, and the trade dependence was determined. Results: The production variables had growth rates in the analysis period, the relative trade balance was -1, and the trade dependence was close to 0. Study Limitations/Implications: There is no correlation between the barley market and the brewing industry in Mexico. Findings/Conclusions: Mexico is a net importer of barley despite the positive growth rates of the production variables. Nevertheless, this grain does not have a trade dependence on the foreign market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study sought to investigate the effect of foreign aid and capital flow on real economic growth for the SADC region. Eleven member states of the SADC region are selected for analysis based on data availability. In the study, foreign aid is represented by official development assistance (ODA), external debt (EXTD), and debt service cost (DSC) while the inflow of foreign direct investment represents capital flow (FDI). Annual percentage growth of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDPpc) is used as a proxy of real economic growth. Trade balance (TRO) is included in the model regression as a control variable. The study employed panel econometric models. The results of panel ARDL indicate that ODA and FDI were found to have a negligible effect on real growth in the short run but contribute positively and significantly in the long run. This revelation supports the view that ODA and FDI are essential determinants of growth. On the other hand, EXTD together with its associated costs was found to have a detrimental effect both in the short run and long run. Based on the results of the study, the authors put forward the following policy recommendations for the SADC region: most importantly, there ought to be effective management of external debt by SADC countries to reduce their overdependency on external debt for their domestic needs. Given the positive effect of FDI in the region, the SADC region needs to intensify its efforts in devising measures that will attract foreign investors to the region which among others include pursuing inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Lastly, there is a need for effective management and official development aid to ensure sustainable growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in shaping the export trajectory of the Indian automobile sector. The study uses VECM technique to determine the existence of cointegration between FDI inflows and exports of automobile industry, and to check the long-run and short-run dynamism among the variables. It uses annual time series data on exports and FDI inflows in the industry by considering Indian rupee real effective exchange rate (REER) and world GDP as control variables. The study finds that FDI inflows positively and significantly affect the exports of automobile industry in India in the long run. The findings also validate the J-curve theory of effect of depreciation on the exports of automobile industry that depreciation of Indian rupee has a favorable effect on the exports or trade balance of this industry. The study finds a significant relationship between FDI inflows and exports in only one direction, i.e., running from FDI inflows to exports of the industry. Furthermore, the results show that there is bidirectional causality between India’s rupee REER and FDI inflows in automobile industry. The results suggest that providing a conducive environment to foreign players would positively impact the exports of the automobile industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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