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Within the European Interreg Italy-Croatia project “CoAStal and marine waters integrated monitoring systems for ecosystems proteCtion AnD managemEnt (CASCADE)” ( https://www.italy-croatia.eu/web/cascade), an off-line coupled physical-biogeochemical box-model was implemented in the shallow Goro lagoon (northern Adriatic Sea, Po river delta region) in order to study its biogeochemical dynamics. The lagoon is subject to intensive shellfish (Ruditapes Philippinarum) farming: more than one third of the lagoon surface is exploited for clam farming, with an annual production that reached a maximum of approximately 15,000 t y-1 in the early 1990s.The biogeochemical component of the modelling system is the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM), accounting for the biogeochemical cycling processes occurring in water and sediments, including (with a functional groups approach) the planktonic and the zoobenthic biota, and fully resolving the benthic pelagic coupling. BFM is implemented in several areas of the lagoon having homogeneous characteristics and different shellfish farming conditions. The areas resolved by the BFM are connected among each other by the mass exchanges (dissolved and particulate) depending by the water circulation in the lagoon that is modeled by the Shallow Water Hydrodynamic Finite Element Model (SHYFEM).The results of the simulation show that the model is able to capture the essential dynamics of the lagoon, with values almost in the same order of magnitude with the measurements from experimental campaigns runned during the project. Particular attention (trough sensitivity experiments) is given to the impact of the the shellfish farming on the lagoon biogeochemical dynamics. The ultimate goal of this work is to provide stakeholders with useful information regarding the evolving biogeochemical conditions that favor the sustainability of the shellfish farming.

Among the fungi responsible for deep mycosis, the genus

This paper described the implementation of a forecasting system of the coupled physical and biogeochemical state of the northern Adriatic Sea and discussed the preliminary results. The forecasting system is composed of two components: the NEMO general circulation model and the BFM biogeochemical model. The BFM component includes an explicit benthic pelagic coupling providing fluxes at the sediment–water interface and the dynamic of the major benthic state variables. The system is forced by atmospheric forcing from a limited-area model and by available land-based (river runoff and nutrient load) data. The preliminary results were validated against available remote and in situ observations. The validation effort indicated a good performance of the system in defining the basin scale characteristics, while locally the forecasting model performance seemed mostly impaired by the uncertainties in the definition of the land-based forcing.

Christine de Pizan, la première femme de lettres de la littérature française à avoir vécu de sa plume, a suscité depuis plusieurs décennies un véritable engouement de la part de la critique, comme en témoigne la vaste bibliographie qui aborde différents aspects de la production multiforme de cette auteure. Ses œuvres en vers et en prose, les manuscrits qui les ont transmises, ainsi que les sources auxquelles elle a puisé ont déjà fait l’objet d’études nombreuses qui se placent dans des domain...

During the last three decades, ensemble modelling has switched the focus from deterministic to probabilistic outcomes after its successful application in meteorological forecasting. This work involves the application of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)-based results as forcing for a coastal EWS employing the morphodynamic model XBeach in a so-called (semi-)probabilistic way. First, calibration following the GLUE approach is performed for a profile in Cesenatico (Emilia-Romagna coast, Italy), while the (semi-)probabilistic system is implemented subsequently for two nearby locations. Ensemble mean and standard deviation from the Transnational Multi-Model Ensemble (TMES) forecasting system are combined in varied ways and used to force XBeach. A testing period of two months is analyzed (March and April 2020) together with the already operational deterministic implementation with one specific day of high sea conditions being used to assess the performance of the system. The deterministic results present higher outcome variability compared to the usage of the TMES mean and mean plus/minus one standard deviation (SD). Adding two SDs to the TMES mean results in higher variability than the deterministic approach. The (semi-)probabilistic system shows high potential as it provides more information on possible outcomes. However, its implementation has to be carefully designed as the application of the TMES mean plus SDs might result in false threshold exceedance and unproportionate responses.

A 2-layer Estuary Box Model, named CMCC EBM (Verri et al., 2020), has been devised by the CMCC Foundation to offer a proper representation of the estuarine overturning circulation and mixing processes in a coupled modelling framework with hydrology models and ocean models. The regional to global ocean models reaching the mesoscale cannot solve the estuarine dynamics because they cannot represent the estuary geometry due to their low resolution. Thus, the idea of an estuary box model that gives reasonable values of water volume flux and salinity at the river mouth, which in turn affects the ocean dynamics.A further development of the model equations (Verri et al. 2021, under revision) considers the estuary length, i.e. the length of the salt wedge intrusion, as a model unknown which depends on the competition between the riverine freshwater and the salt ocean water.The physical core of the model consists of two conservation equations for volume flux and salt flux both averaged over the diurnal tidal cycle. Moreover, two non-dimensional equations based on the Buckingham theorem have been conceived to provide the estuary length and the along-estuary eddy diffusivity (Verri et al., under revision) as time-variable parameters instead of assuming they are static as most box models do.The input fields required by the CMCC EBM are the river runoff at the estuary head and the ocean inflow at the river mouth in terms of both barotropic tidal inflow through the water column and baroclinic inflow at the bottom. The estuary width and depth at the river mouth are the only tunable parameters of the CMCC EBM.The model capability to estimate the length of the salt wedge intrusion has been tested and validated. The Po di Goro branch of the Po delta system has been selected as case study. It is representative of the river-dominated estuaries in a micro-tidal sea, the so called “salt wedge estuaries”, with a multiannual average of the salt wedge intrusion around 15 km according to the ArpaE monitoring campaigns.Overall the high statistical performance, the short computation time and the minimal calibration encourage to use the CMCC EBM in coupled mode with mesoscale ocean models to produce more realistic operational forecasts and climate scenarios.In the framework of the Operandum H2020 project (https://www.operandum-project.eu), the CMCC EBM has been used to provided historical simulations (1981-2010 time window) and mid-term scenarios (2021-2050 time window under RCP 8.5) of both the salt wedge length and the salinity at the Po di Goro mouth. The final aim is to design and develop a site-specific nature-based solution which may address the pressing issue of the salinization of the inland waters. The CMCC EBM results clearly showed a stronger intrusion of saltier ocean water in the middle term. The average, the minimum and the maximum values of salinity at the river mouth provided by the model projections are assumed as reference values to investigate the behaviour of two halophyte species which have been selected to reduce the saline intrusion problem because of their high salinity absorption capacity.

Nature based solutions (NBSs) address key societal challenges through the protection, sustainable management and restoration of both natural and modified ecosystems. In this work we present a modeling application of this innovative approach, inspired by nature, with the goal of mitigating coastal erosion. Within the framework of the OPEn-air laboRAtories for Nature baseD solUtions to Manage environmental risks (OPERANDUM) project, the natural reserve of Bellocchio in Lido di Spina (Italy) faces frequent marine floods and intense erosive phenomena, hence being chosen as Open-Air Laboratory for the NBS implementation. The project aims to mitigate coastal erosion through the realization of an artificial sand dune made of natural materials, such as sand, wood, geotextiles and geomembranes and covered by native herbaceous and shrubby vegetation. We present the modeling activities carried out in the context of the project, aiming on the performance and efficiency evaluation of the designed NBS, with a specific focus on the coastal morphological modelling. Thus, a numerical modeling chain has been set-up to simulate a long-term current scenario with and without the NBS. The chain is composed of the wave model WAVEWATCH III, the oceanographic model SHYFEM and the morphodynamic model XBeach for the coastal area.XBeach was validated with available and specific (for the project) topo-bathymetric surveys of the area of interest as means to define the more accurate set-up of the model parameters. The 10 years period 2010-2019 was defined as the time range for modelling simulations. Sea level outputs from SHYFEM and wave outputs from WAVEWATCH III for the 10 years simulations are used to force the coastal model XBeach. Given the huge computational costs related to long-term simulations, an input-schematization was applied (so called “input reduction”). The approach followed for the long-term morphodynamic modelling of the NBS-XBeach setting will be shown. Moreover, the chosen coastal model domain, the model set-up and the input reduction applied will be presented.

Nature Based solutions (NBS) have been presented in the recent past as a potential solution to natural and climate change adverse effects on human well-being and socio-economic activities. In this study, we present a simulation design methodology for NBS that can mitigate the effect of storm surges and coastal erosion. The chosen NBS is marine seagrass and it will be applied to the coastal strip of the Emilia-Romagna coasts. Within the framework of the OPEn-air laboRAtories for Nature baseD solUtions to Manage environmental risks (OPERANDUM) project, the seagrass NBS is presented within a simulation design methodology consisting of the comparison between validated wave numerical simulations for the present climate and modified wave simulations with marine seagrass. In this context, the unstructured version of WAVEWATCH III (WW3) model has been implemented for simulating the wave characteristics across the Emilia-Romagna coastal strip with and without seagrass.The calibration/validation of WW3 was carried out and sensitivity experiments using the various wind-input dissipation source packages and bottom friction formulations were also attempted to evaluate the model performances (validation results presented here are for the entire 2017 year). The ST6 physics along with SHOWEX bottom friction formulations were chosen ideal for the study area. To evaluate the model results a directional wave rider buoy data was utilized. The model simulated significant wave parameters namely Hs (significant wave height), Tm (mean wave period) were compared with buoy observations and high correlations (0.93) were found with Hs comparison. Further the WW3 model was modified by including the modified bottom dissipation stress due to submerged vegetation, thereby incorporating the NBS as a potential mechanism for wave amplitude reduction. The seagrass species ‘Zostera marina’ was chosen in this study and comparisons showed that seagrass is capable to reduce the wave energy in the study area. Furthermore, the dependence on seagrass plant high-density and low-density scenarios, together with seagrass parameters (height and width of the seagrass) and species show the sensitivity of the results even on reduction of wave energy as obtained with different degrees by all NBS scenarios. Keywords: Nature-based solutions, WW3, marine seagrass, storm surge, Zostera marina.

The low lying and sandy coastal areas of the Emilia-Romagna region are heavily threatened by sea storms, often leading to flooding and coastal erosion events with severe impacts on citizens’ quality of life, damages to the cultural heritage and effects on economic activities (e.g. aquaculture, fisheries, tourism, beach facilities). Climate change projections reinforce the need of strategies and tools to prevent damages and promptly react to extreme events. In this context and in the framework of non-structural mitigation measures, the Hydro-Meteo-Climate Service of Arpae Emilia-Romagna (Arpae-SIMC) developed and operationally manages a Coastal Early Warning System (EWS) for the Emilia-Romagna Region (Northeast Italy).The EWS was developed during the EU Project FP7-MICORE and it is a state-of-the-art coastal forecasting system that follows a chain of operational numerical models: the meteorological model COSMO, the wave model SWAN-MEDITARE, the ocean model AdriaROMS, and the morphodynamic model XBeach. The latter is currently implemented on a series of cross-shore beach profiles covering eight locations distributed along the Emilia-Romagna shore. Deterministic daily forecasts (72-hours) are generated and Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) used to assess sea-storm induced coastal risk along the region’s littoral (geo.regione.emilia-romagna.it/schede/ews). It is widely known that among the limitations of deterministic approaches, the lack of uncertainty estimation is often problematic as decision-makers might be misled if the only forecast available underestimates (or overestimates) incoming conditions. Hence, following the success of probabilistic forecasting in meteorological applications, storm surge EWSs following ensemble frameworks have been recently developed, allowing for more information available to sustain the decision-making process. Towards the new paradigm change, one of the foreseen outputs of the European Interreg Italy-Croatia CBC Programme project Strategic development of flood management (STREAM) involves the development of a “probabilistic EWS for coastal risk implemented and tested on at least one location along the Emilia-Romagna Coast”. The initial implementation of the (semi-)probabilistic framework benefits from the EU ADRION I-STORMS (Integrated Sea Storm Management Strategies) project outcomes, in which wave and sea level multi-model ensembles were developed for the Adriatic Sea giving origin to the Transnational Multi-Model Ensemble (TMES). The TMES was made available as one of the six Integrated Web System (IWS) components, combining five wave and six sea level forecasting systems as means to provide 48-hour forecasts in terms of sea level and wave characteristics (Hs, Tm and Dm). Ensemble mean and standard deviation (SD) are calculated based on different forecasting systems’ results. In the initial approach, four TMES combinations have been tested as XBeach forcing: the TMES mean; the mean minus one SD; the mean plus one SD; the mean plus two SDs. Two months were analyzed together with the already implemented deterministic system for two profiles along the region’s coast.The methodology followed for the test period will be shown as well as the results. Furthermore, the methodology under development will be also shown as means to enhance the discussion involving storm surge ensemble applications.

The adoption of Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) represents a novel means to mitigate natural hazards. In the framework of the OPERANDUM project, this study introduces a methodology to assess the efficiency of the NBSs and a series of Open-Air Laboratories (OALs) regarded as a proof-of-concept for the wider uptake of NBSs. The OALs are located in Finland, Greece, UK, Italy, and Ireland. The methodology is based on a wide modeling activity, incorporated in the context of future climate scenarios. Herein, we present a series of models’ chains able to estimate the efficiency of the NBSs. While the presented models are mainly well-established, their coupling represents a first fundamental step in the study of the long-term efficacy and impact of the NBSs. In the selected sites, NBSs are utilized to cope with distinct natural hazards: floods, droughts, landslides, salt intrusion, and nutrient and sediment loading. The study of the efficacy of NBSs to mitigate these hazards belongs to a series of works devoted to the implementation of NBSs for environmental purposes. Our findings prove that land management plays a crucial role in the process. Specifically, the selected NBSs include intensive forestry, the conversion of urban areas to grassland, dunes, marine seagrass, water retention ponds, live cribwalls, and high-density plantations of woody vegetation and deep-rooted herbaceous vegetation. The management of natural resources should eventually consider the effect of NBSs on urban and rural areas, as their employment is becoming widespread.

espanolEl objeto de este articulo es demostrar, mediante el analisis de un corpus circunscrito (tres manuscritos que contienen una version anonima del Libro de la ciudad de las damas de Christine de Pizan, version conocida como V1’), que las variantes linguisticas, tradicionalmente consideradas inutiles para fines filologicos, pueden de hecho proporcionar datos interesantes para el estudio de la tradicion manuscrita. Ademas, cruza el estudio de la estratificacion de los diferentes sistemas graficos de estos manuscritos (su «diasistema») con los datos proporcionados por la filologia para explotarlos con el fin de datar y localizar esta version V1’. EnglishThis contribution would like to demonstrate, through the analysis of a delimited corpus (three manuscripts containing an anonymous version of Christine de Pizan’s Book of the City of Ladies, version known as V1’), that linguistic variants, traditionally considered useless for philological purposes, can in fact provide interesting data for the study of the manuscript tradition. Moreover, it combines the study of the stratification of different graphic systems in these manuscripts (their ‘diasystem’) with the data provided by philology and codicology in order to exploit them for dating and locating this V1’ version. francaisLa presente contribution voudrait demontrer, par le biais de l’analyse d’un corpus circonscrit (trois manuscrits qui contiennent une version anonyme du Livre de la cite des dames de Christine de Pizan, version connue comme V1’), que les variantes linguistiques, traditionnellement considerees comme inutiles a des fins philologiques, peuvent en realite apporter des donnees interessantes a l’etude de la tradition manuscrite. Par ailleurs, elle croise l’etude de la stratification de systemes graphiques differents dans ces manuscrits (leur « diasysteme ») avec les donnees fournies par la philologie pour les exploiter a des fins de datation et de localisation de cette version V1’

A protected natural area in the Emilia Romagna region, Northern Italy is threatened by hydro-meteorological hazards, particularly sea storms. In the last 50 years the northern part of the Bellocchio Park (Sacca Bellocchio II Nature Reserve, Site code EUAPP0072 - Ferrara, Italy) was interested by an intensive urbanization (Lido di Spina) with the realization of infrastructures, e.g. roads and residential settlements. This land use change led to the construction of embankments and to the conversion of wetlands. These modifications, in combination to even more frequent storm surge events increased coastal erosion. In addition, inland flooding caused by storm surges acts with the reduction of the lagoon and the increase of soil salinity. As an example, the last event occurred in December 2020 eroded a large portion of the Bellocchio beach. Co-design, co-development and deployment of NBS solutions to reduce storm surge risk in the Bellocchio Park is one of the objectives of the H2020 project OPEn-air laboRAtories for Nature baseD solUtions to Manage environmental risks (OPERANDUM). BellocchioBellochio park is in fact one of the 10 Open Air Laboratories (OAL) where the evidence of mitigation of hydro-meteorological risk by NBS will be demonstrated by the combination of different models, approaches and data.During the co-design process in the Bellocchio park, potential deployment locations of sand dunes have been identified in collaboration with local authorities devoted to the management of the natural area and to the coast defense (CB and ARSTePC-RER) and an environmental engineering consultant assisting Arpae (IRIS sas). Field visits were devoted to the analysis of the environmental features, strengths and weaknesses of candidate sites.This work aims to explore the usefulness of the combined use of multisource remote sensing and modeling in decision making during the co-design process of a NBS. The impacts of the most intense extreme storm surge events in the last 30 years have been documented by delineating flooded areas along the coast using Synthetic Aperture Radar and Multispectral image data. Coastal erosion has been also described by means of change detection analysis and very high resolution multispectral EO data. This screening has given a picture of areas at the risk, i.e. the area most likely to be affected by storm-surge events. Auxiliary data like Digital Terrain Models has been assimilated in a dedicated model to produce flood maps under different scenarios, i.e. different locations and size of NBS and different intensities of storm surge. The integrated analysis was helpful in defining the priority sites, among the ones defined by the stakeholders and engineers, in term of effectiveness for storm surge risk reduction.

This study was conducted under the Italian Ministerial Decree D.M. 173/2016 which regulates the assessment of the Sediment Class Quality in Italy using ecotoxicological bioassay and chemical analysis (Weight-Of-Evidence model). The aim of this work was to evaluate the real classification obtained by the theoretically equivalent responses of nine different combinations of batteries based on six different species: Aliivibrio fischeri (inhibition of bioluminescence), Phaeodactylum tricornutum, Skeletonema costatum, Dunaliella tertiolecta (inhibition of algal growth), Paracentrotus lividus and Crassostrea gigas (embryotoxicity). Bioassays, in many cases, showed a non-bioavailability effect of the pollutants; these one highly revealed by the chemical analyses. Algal species showed responses very similar from each other. Otherwise, species used for embryotoxicity produced wide responses, consequently modifying the quality class of sediments and the handling management (i.e. landfill confinement or beach nourishment) allowed by the Law.

This paper reviews the state of the art in storm surge forecasting and its particular application in the northern Adriatic Sea. The city of Venice already depends on operational storm surge forecasting systems to warn the population and economy of imminent flood threats, as well as help to protect the extensive cultural heritage. This will be more important in the future, with the new mobile barriers called MOSE (MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico, Experimental Electromechanical Module) that will be completed by 2021. The barriers will depend on accurate storm surge forecasting to control their operation. In this paper, the physics behind the flooding of Venice is discussed, and the state of the art of storm surge forecasting in Europe is reviewed. The challenges for the surge forecasting systems are analyzed, especially in view of uncertainty. This includes consideration of selected historic extreme events that were particularly difficult to forecast. Four potential improvements are identified: (1) improve meteorological forecasts, (2) develop ensemble forecasting, (3) assimilation of water level measurements and (4) develop a multimodel approach.

The natural reserve in Sacca di Bellocchio, Lido di Spina (Italy) is affected by frequent marine floods and intense erosive phenomena which threaten the freshwater ecosystem and biodiversity at the site. Floods and erosion are linked to the reduction of river sediment transport and a progressive ground subsidence and sea level rise. The persistence of these conditions and the future rise in sea level can expose neighboring anthropized areas to coastal risk.This work presents the project of a nature-based solution (NBS) as a possible defense and mitigation action against coastal erosion and marine flooding along the Bellocchio beach. The NBS has been newly designed within the European project H2020 OPERANDUM (OPEn-air laboRAtories for Nature baseD solutions to Manage Environmental risk) and consists of an artificial sand dune made of natural materials, such as sand, wood, geotextiles and geomembranes through naturalistic engineering techniques. On the new dune will then be inserted native herbaceous and shrubby vegetation. The dune design was supported by an accurate hydro-morphodynamic modeling of the site combined with data concerning the morphological structure, the erosive dynamics and the local climate.This study discusses in detail the modeling techniques and the monitoring system that guided the design of the dune and that constitute a basis for the assessment of performance and effectiveness of any future NBS intervention at the site. The monitoring campaign is still ongoing and allows the collection of critical and updated information on the impacts of coastal storms, storm surges and flood events in the area. The dataset clearly highlights that the site morphology is constantly changing due to a multitude of factors, such as seasonality, the increasing incidence and/or intensity of coastal storms, sea level rise, etc. These rapid, and sometimes drastic, morphological changes pose a substantial challenge to NBS's design and, most importantly, to its deployment planning and timing phase.

Extreme hydro-meteorological events are often defined by the statistical analysis of some parameter that measures the strength of the event over a long enough time series. The parameter could refer to the intensity of the event in terms of energy or to the impact of the event on the environment. This attribution becomes even more relevant when used as reference for future climate projections, suggesting a possible increase in the number of extreme events considering the attribution applied to the past database. In the literature concerning storm-surge, the use of significant wave height (Hs) percentiles to define thresholds of an extreme event is a common practice when dealing with sufficiently long datasets. Usually, this value ranges from 90th up to 99.5th trying to highlight about 3-6 Hs peaks per year. But, in fact, thresholds should provide a benchmark for how much a region can withstand an extreme event. The Italian coast of the northern Adriatic is recently increasing its sensitivity to such episodes, that threaten one of the most active touristic hub of Italy, the highly valuable Po Delta UNESCO Biosphere Reserve and city of Venice fragile structure. Recently in late 2019, a strong event hit Venice with high tides flooding the city's main monument, St. Mark's Basilica, for the 6th time in 1200 years, with levels very similar to the worst event in history in 1966. Attempting to better understand the distribution of these extreme events throughout last decades and how reanalysis products can be useful for storm-surge studies, this paper presents a climatological comparison of significant wave height data extracted from ECMWF ERA5 against the entire historical series available to the Nausicaa wave buoy. This station, owned and managed by ARPAE, is located about 8 km offshore the Municipality of Cesenatico, where the seabed is about 10m, and since 2007 has been used to monitor and prevent sea level related events. In the last 12 years, at least 10 extreme events have been reported based on hourly measured data in Nausicaa and the damage observed along the coast, allowing the local authorities to define Hs thresholds as 1.5 m to significant events and 3.0 m for extreme events. However, analysing the measured data in this period, at least 26 events that exceeded the 3 m threshold were observed, representing the percentile 99.81th of the historical series, whereas only 10 storm-surge events resulted in damage to cities or environmental protection areas. When analysing Hs extracted from ERA5 at the nearest grid point to Nausicaa (~ 30 km) for the same 26 events, all events were correctly identified by reanalysis and represented with an averaged correlation of 0.96. For Hs series extracted from ERA5, values above 3 m reached the 99.83rd percentile for the same period from 2007 to 2018, and 99.84th when expanded to the last 30 years (since 1989), showing that, although quite restricted, the 99.8th percentile seems to be a good value for identifying extreme events of storm-surge in the northern Adriatic Sea.

Addressing coastal risks related to sea storms requires an integrative approach which combines monitoring stations, forecasting models, early warning systems and coastal management and planning. Such great effort is sometimes possible only through transnational cooperation, which becomes thus vital to face effectively and promptly these marine events which are responsible for several damages impacting on the environment and citizens' life. Here we present a shared and interoperable system to allow a better exchange and elaboration of information related to sea storms among countries. The proposed Integrated Web System (IWS) is a combination of a common data system for sharing ocean observations and forecasts, a multi-model ensemble system, a geoportal and interactive geo-visualization tools to make results available to the general public. Multi-model ensemble mean and spread for sea level height and wave characteristics are used to describe three different sea condition scenarios. IWS is designed to provide sea state information required for issuing coastal risk alerts over the analysed region, as well as for being easily integrated into existing local early warning systems. This study describes the application of the developed system to the exceptional storm event of 29th of October 2018, that caused severe flooding and damages to coastal infrastructures in the Adriatic Sea. The forecasted ensemble products were successfully compared with in situ observations. The hazards estimated by integrating IWS results into existing early warning systems were confirmed by documented storm impacts along the coast of Slovenia, Emilia-Romagna and the City of Venice. For the investigated event, the most severe simulated scenario resulted to provide a realistic and conservative estimation of the peak storm conditions to be used in coastal risk management.

The Emilia-Romagna early-warning system (ER-EWS) is a state-of-the-art coastal forecasting system that comprises a series of numerical models (COSMO, ROMS, SWAN and XBeach) to obtain a daily 3-day forecast of coastal storm hazard at eight key sites along the Emilia-Romagna coastline (northern Italy). On the night of 31 October 2012, a major storm event occurred that resulted in elevated water levels (equivalent to a 1-in-20- to 1-in-50-year event) and widespread erosion and flooding. Since this storm happened just 1 month prior to the roll-out of the ER-EWS, the forecast performance related to this event is unknown. The aim of this study was to therefore reanalyse the ER-EWS as if it had been operating a day before the event and determine to what extent the forecasts may have helped reduce storm impacts. Three different reanalysis modes were undertaken: (1) a default forecast (DF) mode based on 3-day wave and water-level forecasts and default XBeach parameters; (2) a measured offshore (MO) forecast mode using wave and water-level measurements and default XBeach parameters; and (3) a calibrated XBeach (CX) mode using measured boundary conditions and an optimized parameter set obtained through an extensive calibration process. The results indicate that, while a "code-red" alert would have been issued for the DF mode, an underprediction of the extreme water levels of this event limited high-hazard forecasts to only two of the eight ER-EWS sites. Forecasts based on measured offshore conditions (the MO mode) more-accurately indicate high-hazard conditions for all eight sites. Further considerable improvements are observed using an optimized XBeach parameter set (the CX mode) compared to default parameters. A series of what-if scenarios at one of the sites show that artificial dunes, which are a common management strategy along this coastline, could have hypothetically been constructed as an emergency procedure to potentially reduce storm impacts.

This paper analyses the constituent order in a major text of Christine de Pizan, The Book of the Epistles of the Debate on the Romance of the Rose (1401–1402), from the perspective of linguistic typology. The statistical study of the expression, non-expression and position (pre- or post-verbal) of the subject shows that the TSV (theme-subject-verb) pattern is increasingly present in declarative sentences of Middle French, although the TV(S) pattern – characteristic of Old French – is extant as well. On the other hand, the subject is expressed in the great majority of que subordinates. The language of Christine de Pizan is thus paradigmatic of the stage represented by Middle French – i.e. an intermediate between a TV language (Old French) and a SV language (Modern French).

The definition of storm morphological thresholds along the coast of the Emilia-Romagna Region strictly depends on its configuration and variability. The region is located in northern Italy, facing the Adriatic Sea. The coastline is characterised by very different levels of economic development, ranging from natural zones with dunes to highly developed stretches protected by breakwaters and groynes. The Integrated Coastal Zone Management effort is mainly concentrated on preserving urban areas that generate significant income for the regional economy. Natural areas, while small in comparison to the urbanised zone, are important for environment preservation. Because of such a multiplicity of issues at stake, it was decided to produce two different thresholds: one for the morphological impact on natural sectors and another for inundation and damage to structures along urbanised zones. The “forcing” component of the threshold definition for natural areas was calculated by summing the effects of surge + tide + waves (run-up elevation) to find the Maximum Water Level (MWL) reached by the sea during one, ten and one-hundred year storm return periods. For urbanised zones, historical storm information was collected starting from the 1960s in order to identify the forcing conditions causing real damages. Each storm was classified in terms of wave height, period, direction and surge level. Morphological information were obtained from Lidar flights performed in 2003 and 2004 and from direct surveys undertaken in September 2008 and February 2009 as part of the monitoring programme for the MICORE Project. The computed MWL for each return period was then compared to beach elevations along natural areas in order to calculate the Dune Stability Factor (DSF), an index that accounts for the eroded sediment volume above the MWL during a storm. Based on analysis along 41 profile lines at a 500 m spacing, it was found that the 1-in-1 year return period wave height + 1-in-1 year return period surge are able to erode and/or overwash 2/3 of the dunes. The historical storm hydrodynamic information was used to estimate which wave and surge conditions are able to inundate at least 2/3 of the beach profiles. The MWL was again compared to beach elevations, this time along 63 anthropogenic profiles spaced 500 m apart (or 1/3 of the urbanised coastline). It was found that a wave heights >= 2 m and surge + tide levels >= 0.7 m are able to flood between 18% and 36% of the built-up coast. The defined thresholds are related to the present coastal characteristics and are not “static”, meaning that they are likely to change according to future evolution of the coastline. They are very important because they can be used as thresholds to issue warnings and alert the Civil Protection. Moreover they are the first thresholds defined for the Emilia-Romagna coastline and will be used as starting values to generate “dynamic” thresholds based on numerical model predictions of morphological change for a given wave and surge level.

We consider an exceptional storm—‘Klaus’ (January 2009)—its evolution on the Western Mediterranean Sea, and how the associated wind and wave conditions were modelled by seven of the major systems presently operational in this area. We intercompare the model results and then verify them and the related model ensemble versus the available measured data. Working with short-term forecasts (24 h) only, as expected, each model correctly anticipates the incoming of an exceptional storm. However, even at such limited range, we have found substantial differences among the results of the different models. The differences concern the time the storm should have entered the Western Mediterranean Sea, the peak values of wind speed and significant wave height, the general distribution of the fields, and the locations where the maxima were achieved. We have compared the model results versus the available measured data, wind from scatterometer, waves from altimeter, plus a few buoy data. We have found some inconsistencies in the results, model wind data being on average larger than the measured one, while the opposite was true for wave heights. However, the limited amount of data available and its different times and positions, at and off the centre of the storm, impede the drawing of any definite conclusion in this respect. On the whole we feel that our results, although related to a single storm, cast doubts on the reliability of a single forecast system to provide sufficiently reliable and accurate forecasts in case of an incoming exceptional storm. The results, both for wind and waves, have improved using an ensemble of the seven considered models. This suggests that there is no relevant systematic error in the used models except, as possibly suggested by our results, in the case of wave generation under very strong wind and very young sea conditions. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Misogynie et Moyen Age Les approches foucaldienne et feministe On a beaucoup ecrit sur le theme de la misogynie au Moyen Age, mais on ne s'est peut-etre pas suffisamment demande s'il est legitime d'employer ce mot pour parler d'une epoque qui ne le connaissait pas. La premiere attestation en francais d'un neologisme ... employe d'origine grecque, >, employe comme substantif, apparait dans l'ouvrage de Marconville, Bonte et mauvaistie des femmes (1564) (1). D'apres Le Robert historique, > (2). The Oxford English Dictionary enregistre les premieres attestations de > (substantif) et > au dix-septieme siecle (respectivement 1620 et 1656), mais il s'agit d'un emploi erudit, et il faut attendre le dix-neuvieme siecle pour trouver les premieres occurrences des mots dans la presse (New Monthly Magazine, 1821, > adjectif) (3). Bien que le mot ait ete invente, semble-t-il, au seizieme siecle, au cours de la >, son emploi est donc reste sporadique jusqu'au dix-neuvieme siecle, au cours duquel il s'est petit a petit repandu, parallelement a la diffusion du mot > (cree en 1837 par Charles Fourier). Depuis la publication de La Volonte de savoir de Michel Foucault (4), on admet generalement que tout ce qui concerne la sexualite ainsi que, par extension, les genres sexues, n'est pas une donnee immuable, mais change avec les epoques, selon des dispositifs mis en oeuvre, de facon subreptice et non univoque, par les pouvoirs religieux, etatique, medical, afin de mieux controler les sujets. Les reflexions de Foucault peuvent sans conteste s'appliquer a la notion de misogynie, mais pour des analyses plus specifiquement centrees sur ce sujet, il faudra se tourner vers les etudes feministes et postfeministes (5). Pour parler de misogynie, il faut parler des femmes, mais c'est la un terrain glissant. Nombre de feministes ont mis en avant l'erreur theorique de reflechir sur une hypothetique > desancree d'attaches avec le reel. Monique Wittig a ecrit que > (6). Wittig parlait des femmes comme d'une classe sociale, qui, comme telle, devrait disparaitre ; elle avait a l'esprit la reflexion marxiste, mais elle ne resolvait pas sa pensee purement et simplement dans celle-ci : comme le materialisme marxiste trouve ses origines dans la pensee de Hegel, tout en en constituant un depassement, le feminisme materialiste a parmi ses ancetres la pensee marxiste, mais il ne pourrait s'y reduire (7). Une synthese admirable, qui represente en meme temps un grand avancement dans la reflexion, a ete fournie par Judith Butler dans son ouvrage desormais devenu un classique, Gender Trouble. A travers une longue analyse de ce qui est appele aux Etats-Unis >, Butler associe le concept de genre a celui de performativite et remet en discussion jusqu'a la categorie de sexe : le corps sexue n'est plus la cause d'un rapport de pouvoir, mais il est lui-meme faconne par une serie de moyens discursifs (8). Entre historicite et anachronisme : legitimite d'une approche Si les categories concernant le sexe, le genre et la sexualite sont historiquement, socialement et discursivement construites, pouvons-nous appliquer un concept qui s'est repandu au dix-neuvieme siecle a des textes medievaux ? Nous croyons que nous le pouvons, et cela pour deux raisons. Premierement les femmes, a des degres divers selon differents facteurs d'ordre social, economique et politique, restent en situation d'oppression ou, du moins, leurs conditions d'affirmation personnelle et d'avancement social ainsi que, dans quelques pays, leurs droits civils, ne sont souvent pas les memes que ceux des hommes. …

L’evoluzione morfologica di una porzione (1 km) del litorale di Terracina (Lazio centro meridionale) è stata analizzata tramite dati di video-monitoraggio e topo-batimetrici. Dati di previsione ondosa a cadenza oraria, basata sul modello SWAN, sono stati utilizzati per confrontare la variabilità morfologica all’energia ondosa incidente. Il tratto analizzato rappresenta una porzione di un settore ripasciuto nel 2006 dove, su 1.6 km di litorale, sono stati sversati 345800 mc di inerti. Le attività di video-monitoraggio sono iniziate circa un anno e mezzo dopo l’intervento di ripascimento, omettendo quindi l’analisi dell’evoluzione morfologica del periodo immediatamente dopo il rinascimento. Complessivamente, i dati di monitoraggio hanno coperto un periodo di osservazione di 34 mesi, da Gennaio 2008 a Ottobre 2010. Indicatori per il posizionamento della linea di riva e delle barre sommerse sono stati estratti dalle immagini video acquisite dalla centralina di monitoraggio e comparati con rilievi topo-batimetrici eseguiti lungo la stessa porzione di spiaggia. A circa un anno e mezzo dal ripascimento, non si registrano forti arretramenti del cuneo di ripascimento e i fondali sono caratterizzati da una barra sommersa lineare e disposta parallelamente a riva. Tale assetto morfologico rimane pressoché inalterato durante i primi 17 mesi di video-monitoraggio finche una serie di violente mareggiate dai quadranti meridionali, con massime altezze d’onda di 4 m, rimodellano profondamente i fondali a fine Novembre 2008. La linea di riva arretra di circa 20 m, si origina una nuova barra sottoriva e quella pre-esistente migra verso mare. Sebbene la linea di riva sia arretrata notevolmente, a tre anni dal ripascimento il tratto analizzato presenta un bilancio netto nullo, compensato da una forte crescita dei fondali antistanti. Negli ultimi 5 mesi di osservazioni la cresta di barra esterna perde la sua evidenza morfologica e induce la migrazione verso mare della barra interna, che essendo più esposta all’energia del moto ondoso incidente, sviluppa una morfologia lineare e uniforme lungo costa.

A hierarchy of medium (2 km) and high (0.5 km) resolution operational models cast in the Adriatic sea (NE Mediterranean Sea), relying on an updated core w.r.t. previously existing one, characterized by having a wide variety of applications ranging from civil protection to scientific ones, is presented and described. The computing core of the system sits at Hydro-Meteo-Clima Service (SIMC, Bologna), and the scientific supervision is provided by DISVA Polytechnic University of Marche and CNR-ISMAR Venice. The core of the operational system is based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System, version 3.4. The hydrodynamic variables (e.g. sea surface elevation, currents, temperature, salinity, storm surge height), and wave parameters are predicted every day for the next 72 hours. The surface forcing for the hydrodynamic (AdriaROMS 4.0) and wave (SWAN) operational models is derived from the predicted results of the operational meteorological model COSMO-I7 (7 km resolution) which forecasts atmospheric fields over the whole Italian seas. Hydrodynamic results are verified against oceanographic and wave buoys, tide gauges, bottom mounted acoustic current meter profilers, available in the coastal waters of the Adriatic Sea and oceanographic surveys. More specifically, CNR-ISMAR in the northern Adriatic Sea manages a meteo-oceanographic buoy network and the fixed ocean observatory tower “Acqua Alta”, SIMC manages a wave buoy. Aiming to obtain forecast improvements in coastal areas of northern Adriatic Sea, a newly implemented, more resolved (0.5 km) ROMS version two-way coupled with SWAN is nested in the operational AdriaROMS 4.0 covering the Adriatic Sea at 2 km horizontal resolution. Outputs of operational models drive dedicated submodels for oil-spill transport and dispersion, coastal morphodymanic, sediment transport, saline wedge, water quality.

Valentini Andrea. Sur la date et l'auteur du remaniement du Roman de la Rose par Gui de Mori. In: Cahiers de l'Association internationale des études francaises, 2007, n°59. pp. 361-381.

The development of a reliable model of anaerobic hydrolysis is of primary importance for improving modeling and design of anaerobic treatment for wastewaters and slurries with high suspended solids concentration. Michaelis-Menten, substrate first order, substrate and biomass first order and substrate first order and biomass half order equations have been compared using experimental data from a series of anaerobic degradation batch tests on cellulose particles of known size. A general kinetic equation [dS/dt=−KHASXA] which may include all the four considered kinetics, is presented. This general equation allows for a more accurate mathematical representation of the hydrolysis process. Analysing data from a series of batch tests, the best fit value of A was found to be in the range 0.42 to 0.64. This approach could reduce the choice of anaerobic degradation kinetics of particulate organic matter to the calculation of the kinetic constant KHA and of the related power coefficient A.