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The sustainability of marine communities is critical for supporting many biophysical processes that provide ecosystem services that promote human well-being. It is expected that anthropogenic disturbances such as climate change and human activities will tend to create less energetically-efficient ecosystems that support less biomass per unit energy flow. It is debated, however, whether this expected development should translate into bottom-heavy communities (with small basal species being the most abundant and large apex predators the least abundant) or top-heavy communities (where more biomass is supported at higher trophic levels with species having larger body sizes). Here, we combine ecological theory and empirical data to demonstrate that protection from harvesting promotes top-heavy energetically-efficient structures in marine communities. First, we use metabolic scaling theory to show that protected communities are expected to display stronger top-heavy structures than harvested communities. Similarly, we show theoretically that communities with high energy transfer efficiency display stronger top-heavy structures than communities with low transfer efficiency. Next, we use, as a natural experiment, the structures observed within fully protected marine areas compared to harvested areas across 299 geographical sites worldwide that vary in stress from thermal events and adjacent human activity. Using a nonparametric causal-inference analysis, we find a strong, positive, causal effect between protection from harvesting and top-heavy structures. Our work corroborates ecological theory on community development and provides a framework for additional research into the restorative effects of protected areas.

The temperature‐size rule (TSR) describes the inverse relationship between organism size and environmental temperature in uni‐ and multicellular species. Despite the TSR being widespread, the mechanisms for shrinking body size with warming remain elusive. Here, we experimentally test three hypotheses (differential development and growth [DDG], maintain aerobic scope and regulate oxygen supply [MASROS] and the supply–demand [SD] hypothesis) potentially explaining the TSR using the aquatic protist Colpidium striatum in three gradually changing and one constant temperature environment crossed with three different nutrient levels. We find that the constant and slowly warming environments show similar responses in terms of population dynamics, whereas populations with linear and fast warming quickly decline and show a stronger temperature‐size response. Our analyses suggest that acclimation may have played a role in observing these differences among treatments. The SD hypothesis is most parsimonious with the data, however, neither the DDG nor the MASROS hypothesis can be firmly dismissed. We conclude that the TSR is driven by multiple ecological and acclimatory responses, hence multicausal.

The literature on social acceptance of wind energy has identified several important characteristics shaping the social acceptance of a planned project. These include distributional and procedural justice, as well as other project-related factors. Project characteristics do not exist in isolation and influence one another. Furthermore, social acceptance of wind energy is likely to vary geographically, due to cross-country differences. As a result, the need for more consistent cross-country comparisons has been highlighted in the literature as an important research gap. The current paper addresses this gap with the help of a large-scale cross-country analysis (N = 2003) that examines the social acceptance of wind energy projects in Switzerland, Estonia, and Ukraine through choice experiments. Our analysis shows some exploratory evidence for country-specific differences: A tradition of direct democratic decision-making might lead to placing more emphasis on procedural justice, and we also identify some early evidence for differences between individualist and collectivist countries in terms of preferences for distributional justice. However, we also find that ecological impact was the most important attribute in all three countries, and respondents tend to appreciate local ownership. We conclude that projects should be developed by local actors and remain friendly to wildlife – keeping them local and bird-friendly., The authors acknowledge funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant No. IZ74Z0_160564), the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (Grant No. SI/401752-01), the cantons of St. Gallen, Graubünden and Thurgau, the Swiss Competence Centres for Energy Research (SCCER CREST), funded by Innosuisse – Swiss Innovation Agency, and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie actions grant agreement MISTRAL (Grant No. 81383).

Warming and nutrient enrichment are major environmental factors shaping ecological dynamics. However, cross-scale investigation of their combined effects by linking theory and experiments is lacking. We collected data from aquatic microbial ecosystems investigating the interactive effects of warming (constant and rising temperatures) and enrichment across levels of organisation and contrasted them with community models based on metabolic theory. We found high agreement between our observations and theoretical predictions: we observed in many cases the predicted antagonistic effects of high temperature and high enrichment across levels of organisation. Temporal stability of total biomass decreased with warming but did not differ across enrichment levels. Constant and rising temperature treatments with identical mean temperature did not show qualitative differences. Overall, we conclude that model and empirical results are in broad agreement due to robustness of the effects of temperature and enrichment, that the mitigating effects of temperature on effects of enrichment may be common, and that models based on metabolic theory provide qualitatively robust predictions of the combined ecological effects of enrichment and temperature.

International audience; Environmental change can alter species’ abundances within communities consistently; for example, increasing all abundances by the same percentage, or more idiosyncratically. Here, we show how comparing effects of temperature on species grown in isolation and when grown together helps our understanding of how ecological communities more generally respond to environmental change. In particular, we find that the shape of the feasibility domain (the parameter space of carrying capacities compatible with positive species’ abundances) helps to explain the composition of experimental microbial communities under changing environmental conditions. First, we introduce a measure to quantify the asymmetry of a community’s feasibility domain using the column vectors of the corresponding interaction matrix. These column vectors describe the effects each species has on all other species in the community (hereafter referred to as species’ multidimensional effects). We show that as the asymmetry of the feasibility domain increases the relationship between species’ abundance when grown together and when grown in isolation weakens. We then show that microbial communities experiencing different temperature environments exhibit patterns consistent with this theory. Specifically, communities at warmer temperatures show relatively more asymmetry; thus, the idiosyncrasy of responses is higher compared with that in communities at cooler temperatures. These results suggest that while species’ interactions are typically defined at the pairwise level, multispecies dynamics can be better understood by focusing on the effects of these interactions at the community level.

1. The inference of pairwise competitive outcomes (PCO) and multispecies competitive ranks and intransitivity from empirical data is essential to evaluate how competition shapes plant communities. Three categories of methods, differing in theoretical background and data requirements, have been used: (a) theoretically sound coexistence theory‐based methods, (b) index‐based methods, and (c) ‘process‐from‐pattern’ methods. However, how they are related is largely unknown. 2. In this study, we explored the relations between the three categories by explicitly comparing three representatives of them: (a) relative fitness difference (RFD), (b) relative yield (RY), and (c) a reverse‐engineering approach (RE). Specifically, we first conducted theoretical analyses with Lotka–Volterra competition models to explore their theoretical linkages. Second, we used data from a long‐term field experiment and a short‐term greenhouse experiment with eight herbaceous perennials to validate the theoretical findings. 3. The theoretical analyses showed that RY or RE applied with equilibrium data indicated equivalent, or very similar, PCO respectively to RFD, but these relations became weaker or absent with data further from equilibrium. In line with this, both RY and RE converged with RFD in indicating PCO over time in the field experiment as the communities became closer to equilibrium. Moreover, the greenhouse PCO (far from equilibrium) were only similar to the field PCO of earlier rather than later years. Intransitivity was more challenging to infer because it could be reshuffled by even a small competitive shift among similar competitors. For example, the field intransitivity inferred by three methods differed greatly: no intransitivity was detected with RFD; intransitivity detected with RY and RE was poorly correlated, changed substantially over time (even after equilibrium) and failed to explain coexistence. 4. Our findings greatly help the comparison and generalization of studies using different methods. For future studies, if equilibrium data are available, one can infer PCO and multispecies competitive ranks with RY or RE. If not, one should apply RFD with density gradient or time‐series data. Equilibria could be evaluated with T tests or standard deviations. To reliably infer intransitivity, one needs high quality data for a given method to first accurately infer PCO, especially among similar competitors. This study has been supported by the German Science Foundation (RO2397/8) in the framework of the Jena Experiment (FOR 456/1451). Y.H.F. was also supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (lzujbky-2019-32). S.S. was supported by the Spanish Government under a Ramón y Cajal contract (RYC-2016-20604).

Hydropower is the largest source of renewable electricity in the world, but despite being a mature and clean energy technology it has also been the subject of ecological and social conflict. Literature suggests that the social acceptance of renewable energy can be increased by respecting procedural justice (fair, participatory planning processes) and distributional justice (fairly allocating costs and benefits). However, empirical evidence about how justice considerations are related to the expansion of hydropower is scarce, pre-existing studies being mostly qualitative in nature. We contribute to filling the gap in the current literature by describing in this paper how choice experiments with 1004 Swiss residents were undertaken to explore the influence of procedural and distributional justice on acceptance, relative to other attributes of hydropower projects. We find that while considerations about justice do play a role in decisions to accept, respondents in Switzerland care most about ecological impacts, and secondly about local ownership.

Environmental change can alter species' abundances within communities consistently; for example, increasing all abundances by the same percentage, or more idiosyncratically. Here, we show how comparing effects of temperature on species grown in isolation and when grown together helps our understanding of how ecological communities more generally respond to environmental change. In particular, we find that the shape of the feasibility domain (the parameter space of carrying capacities compatible with positive species' abundances) helps to explain the composition of experimental microbial communities under changing environmental conditions. First, we introduce a measure to quantify the asymmetry of a community's feasibility domain using the column vectors of the corresponding interaction matrix. These column vectors describe the effects each species has on all other species in the community (hereafter referred to as species' multidimensional effects). We show that as the asymmetry of the feasibility domain increases the relationship between species' abundance when grown together and when grown in isolation weakens. We then show that microbial communities experiencing different temperature environments exhibit patterns consistent with this theory. Specifically, communities at warmer temperatures show relatively more asymmetry; thus, the idiosyncrasy of responses is higher compared with that in communities at cooler temperatures. These results suggest that while species' interactions are typically defined at the pairwise level, multispecies dynamics can be better understood by focusing on the effects of these interactions at the community level.

Losses and gains in species diversity affect ecological stability1–7 and the sustainability of ecosystem functions and services8–13. Experiments and models have revealed positive, negative and no effects of diversity on individual components of stability, such as temporal variability, resistance and resilience2,3,6,11,12,14. How these stability components covary remains poorly understood15. Similarly, the effects of diversity on overall ecosystem stability16, which is conceptually akin to ecosystem multifunctionality17,18, remain unknown. Here we studied communities of aquatic ciliates to understand how temporal variability, resistance and overall ecosystem stability responded to diversity (that is, species richness) in a large experiment involving 690 micro-ecosystems sampled 19 times over 40 days, resulting in 12,939 samplings. Species richness increased temporal stability but decreased resistance to warming. Thus, two stability components covaried negatively along the diversity gradient. Previous biodiversity manipulation studies rarely reported such negative covariation despite general predictions of the negative effects of diversity on individual stability components3. Integrating our findings with the ecosystem multifunctionality concept revealed hump- and U-shaped effects of diversity on overall ecosystem stability. That is, biodiversity can increase overall ecosystem stability when biodiversity is low, and decrease it when biodiversity is high, or the opposite with a U-shaped relationship. The effects of diversity on ecosystem multifunctionality would also be hump- or U-shaped if diversity had positive effects on some functions and negative effects on others. Linking the ecosystem multifunctionality concept and ecosystem stability can transform the perceived effects of diversity on ecological stability and may help to translate this science into policy-relevant information. Species richness was found to increase temporal stability but decrease resistance to warming in an experiment involving 690 micro-ecosystems consisting of 1 to 6 species of bacterivorous ciliates that were sampled over 40 days.

Successfully predicting the future states of systems that are complex, stochastic, and potentially chaotic is a major challenge. Model forecasting error (FE) is the usual measure of success; however model predictions provide no insights into the potential for improvement. In short, the realized predictability of a specific model is uninformative about whether the system is inherently predictable or whether the chosen model is a poor match for the system and our observations thereof. Ideally, model proficiency would be judged with respect to the systems’ intrinsic predictability, the highest achievable predictability given the degree to which system dynamics are the result of deterministic vs. stochastic processes. Intrinsic predictability may be quantified with permutation entropy (PE), a model‐free, information‐theoretic measure of the complexity of a time series. By means of simulations, we show that a correlation exists between estimated PE and FE and show how stochasticity, process error, and chaotic dynamics affect the relationship. This relationship is verified for a data set of 461 empirical ecological time series. We show how deviations from the expected PE–FE relationship are related to covariates of data quality and the nonlinearity of ecological dynamics. These results demonstrate a theoretically grounded basis for a model‐free evaluation of a system's intrinsic predictability. Identifying the gap between the intrinsic and realized predictability of time series will enable researchers to understand whether forecasting proficiency is limited by the quality and quantity of their data or the ability of the chosen forecasting model to explain the data. Intrinsic predictability also provides a model‐free baseline of forecasting proficiency against which modeling efforts can be evaluated., Ecological Monographs, 89 (2), ISSN:0012-9615, ISSN:1557-7015, ISSN:1741-7015

Waterfront renewal is a recurrent event in the life of many cities around the world. Traditionally, planners and geographers have focused on this phenomenon analyzing the ongoing relationsh...

In this paper we report on the results of the application of a latent class model that was designed to identify and characterize unobserved preference heterogeneity in the context of a willingness-to-accept (WTA) framework involving negative environmental externalities stemming from the expansion of the Port of Valencia. We investigated the hypothesis that respondents with greater familiarity with the targeted good and any related environmental damage would demand more compensation; that is, they would have a significantly higher WTA. Based on respondents' familiarity with the Port of Valencia and their pre-existing knowledge about the negative consequences of its potential expansion three clusters based on six indicators are identified. Results show that, contrary to what might be expected, familiarity with a public good does not in all cases have a significant effect on stated WTA.

Consumers have the power to contribute to creating a more sustainable future by subscribing to green electricity tariffs. To reach consumers “beyond the eco-niche,” identifying the drivers that positively influence the adoption of green electricity is of fundamental importance. This chapter examines various factors that help to explain the extent to which green electricity subscribers differ from those who display strong preferences toward green electricity but have not yet “walked the talk.” By making use of a latent class segmentation analysis based on choice-based conjoint data, this chapter identifies three groups of potential green electricity adopters with varying degrees of preference for renewable energy. Findings indicate that sociodemographic factors play a marginal role in explaining the differences between green electricity subscribers and potential adopters, with the exception that actual adopters tend to be better educated. Analysis of psychographic and behavioral features reveals that adopters tend to perceive consumer effectiveness to be higher, tend to estimate lower prices for green electricity tariffs, are willing to pay significantly more for other eco-friendly products, and are more likely to have recently changed their electricity contract than nonadopters.

Consumers have the power to contribute to creating a more sustainable future by subscribing to green electricity tariffs. In order to reach consumers ‘beyond the eco-niche’, identifying the drivers that positively influence the adoption of green electricity is of fundamental importance. This paper examines various factors that help to explain the extent to which green electricity subscribers differ from those that display strong preferences towards green electricity but have not yet ‘walked the talk’. By making use of a latent class segmentation analysis based on choice-based conjoint data, this paper identifies three groups of potential green electricity adopters with varying degrees of preference for renewable energy. Findings indicate that socio-demographic factors play a marginal role in explaining the differences between green electricity subscribers and potential adopters, with the exception that actual adopters tend to be better educated. Analysis of psychographic and behavioral features reveals that adopters tend to perceive consumer effectiveness to be higher, place more trust in science, tend to estimate lower prices for green electricity tariffs, are willing to pay significantly more for other eco-friendly products and are more likely to have recently changed their electricity contract than non-adopters. Policy recommendations associated with these findings are provided.

The primary focus of this research is to explore the effect of pro-environmental behaviour on CO2 emissions in relation to heating, electricity and transport activities in the residential sector. Changing such behaviour has considerable potential for conserving energy and is an important target of environmental policies which are designed to decrease energy consumption. It is hypothesized that people who consciously act in a pro-environmental way do not necessarily have lower CO2 emissions more than those who do not undertake environmental activities. Data about residential energy use is based on a survey carried out in Hungary in 2010 with a sample of 1012 people. Latent cluster analysis (LCA) was conducted based on data about the reported pro-environmental behavior in the survey and four clusters were identified. Relevant sociostructural and structural factors were also investigated. Results of the data analysis show that no significant difference is found between the impacts of environmentally aware and environmentally unaware consumers, i.e. both ‘Brown’ and ‘Supergreen’ consumers consume approximately the same amount of energy and produce approximately the same amount of carbon emissions because the motivation-driven activities of ‘Supergreens’ are offset by structural factors.

The aim of this article is to draw attention to calculations on the environmental effects of agriculture and to the definition of marginal agricultural yield. When calculating the environmental impacts of agricultural activities, the real environmental load generated by agriculture is not revealed properly through ecological footprint indicators, as the type of agricultural farming (thus the nature of the pollution it creates) is not incorporated in the calculation. It is commonly known that extensive farming uses relatively small amounts of labor and capital. It produces a lower yield per unit of land and thus requires more land than intensive farming practices to produce similar yields, so it has a larger crop and grazing footprint. However, intensive farms, to achieve higher yields, apply fertilizers, insecticides, herbicides, etc., and cultivation and harvesting are often mechanized. In this study, the focus is on highlighting the differences in the environmental impacts of extensive and intensive farming practices through a statistical analysis of the factors determining agricultural yield. A marginal function is constructed for the relation between chemical fertilizer use and yield per unit fertilizer input. Furthermore, a proposal is presented for how calculation of the yield factor could possibly be improved. The yield factor used in the calculation of biocapacity is not the marginal yield for a given area, but is calculated from the real and actual yields, and this way biocapacity and the ecological footprint for cropland are equivalent. Calculations for cropland biocapacity do not show the area needed for sustainable production, but rather the actual land area used for agricultural production. The proposal the authors present is a modification of the yield factor and also the changed biocapacity is calculated. The results of statistical analyses reveal the need for a clarification of the methodology for calculating marginal yield, which could clearly contribute to assessing the real environmental impacts of agriculture.

Over the last decade the ecological footprint (EF) methodology has become widely used for estimating the biocapacity and the impact of human consumption in terms of global hectares. Although it represents a very impressive method for calculating the EF and biocapacity of an area, problems can arise regarding the incorporation of ecological factors into the calculation process. In this study we point out some problematic issues with use of the current EF methodology from an ecological point of view, taking as our focus forest biocapacity in Hungary. The EF concept ignores the differences in productivity of different species and forest types and their associated ecological values as well. We argue that the ecological ‘quality' of different kinds of forests and tree species should be reflected in EF calculations in order to obtain a more accurate estimation of biocapacity. The presence of invasive and non-local species may reduce biodiversity and crowd out native tree species. As a result we distinguish between three main forest types (natural, cultural and energy forests) and additionally suggest the introduction of an additional parameter which refers to the ‘naturalness' of the specified forest types. Results show a 15% increase in forest biocapacity when incorporating the naturalness factor.

Verbraucher konnen durch die Wahl von Okostromprodukten zu einer nachhaltigeren Energiezukunft beitragen. Damit das Marketing Kunden „jenseits der Oko-Nische“ erreicht, ist es wichtig zu verstehen, welche Faktoren einen positiven Einfluss auf den Wechsel zu Okostrom haben. Dieser Beitrag analysiert, worin sich aktuelle von potenziellen Okostromkunden unterscheiden. Anhand einer Segmentierungsanalyse, basierend auf Daten einer Conjoint-Analyse unter deutschen Stromkunden, werden drei vielversprechende Zielgruppen identifiziert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass soziodemografische Faktoren – mit Ausnahme des Bildungsniveaus – bei der Erklarung der Unterschiede zwischen aktuellen und potenziellen Okostromkunden nur eine marginale Rolle spielen. Die Analyse psychografischer und verhaltensorientierter Merkmale zeigt, dass aktuelle Okostromkunden ihren Einfluss als Verbraucher in Bezug auf Umweltschutz als groser wahrnehmen, die Preise fur Okostromtarife niedriger einschatzen, generell eine hohere Zahlungsbereitschaft fur umweltfreundliche Produkte haben und eine hohere Wechselbereitschaft aufweisen als potenzielle Okostromkunden.

To achieve the transition to a low-carbon economy, societal barriers need to be overcome. The importance of societal factors in engaging in low-carbon behaviour and actions stands in the centre of this thesis. Currently, the way we produce and consume goods and services is not on sustainable track and also in terms of CO2 reduction current production and consumption practices have to be reconsidered to approach low-carbon future. To reduce carbon emission, on the one hand, we need to adopt low-carbon and renewable technologies and increase energy and resource efficiency. On the other hand, consumption patterns have to be changed radically. _____ Az alacsony karbon-kibocsatasu (AKK) gazdasag fele vezető utat tarsadalmi akadalyok szegelyezik. Jelen disszertacio kozponti temaja az alacsony-karbon kibocsatasu viselkedes es cselekvesek vizsgalata. A CO2 szint folyamatos novekedese a jelenlegi es multbeli fogyasztasi es termelesi szokasok egyenes kovetkezmenye, melyet a klimapolitika egyelőre nem kepes megfelelően stabilizalni. eleresehez a jelenlegi termelesi es fogyasztasi gyakorlatok felulvizsgalata es radikalis valtoztatasa szukseges. Mindkettő a tarsadalom aktiv reszvetelet koveteli meg. A fogyasztasi gyakorlat megvaltoztatasa az AKK viselkedesi mintak elterjesztesevel es az anyagi javak fogyasztasanak visszafogasaval erhető el, mig a termelesi tevekenysegek CO2 csokkenteset az AKK es megujulo technologiak alkalmazasaval, illetve az energia- es erőforras-hatekonysag novelesevel erhető el.

In Hungary the culture for sustainability management is quite diverse. Even large companies are usually subsidiaries or suppliers to large multinational companies and the influence of buyers and owners is substantial. As a result there are a number of different traditions in sustainability management in the country and correspondingly relatively few typical cultural attributes. The impacts of investors and shareholders are given high scores in the survey, while consumers are given a low score in motivating companies to pursue sustainability management. Community also has little influence because community involvement in sustainability management does not have a long tradition in Hungary. Thus two-way communication and participative methods of stakeholder management are less common. The responses show that Hungarian companies manage most environmental issues, especially emissions, more closely than the international average. Sustainability management tools are broadly known and applied in the country, and the general satisfaction with the number and level of tools indicates that there is no need for further development here. Basically, Hungarian companies are more sceptical towards the benefits of the implementation of corporate sustainability. This is especially true with regard to the prospective positive impacts on cost reduction, innovation, employee motivation as well as enhancing and safeguarding corporate reputation. In sum, Hungarian companies have already demonstrated expertise in most fields of sustainability management, but the development of a more participative collaboration with both internal and external stakeholders in sustainability management is still needed.

The aim of this paper is to build the stated preference method into the social discount rate methodology. The first part of the paper presents the results of a survey about stated time preferences through pair-choice decision situations for various topics and time horizons. It is assumed that stated time preferences differ from calculated time preferences and that the extent of stated rates depends on the time period, and on how much respondents are financially and emotionally involved in the transactions. A significant question remains: how can the gap between the calculation and the results of surveys be resolved, and how can the real time preferences of individuals be interpreted using a social time preference rate. The second part of the paper estimates the social time preference rate for Hungary using the results of the survey, while paying special attention to the pure time preference component. The results suggest that the current method of calculation of the pure time preference rate does not reflect the real attitudes of individuals towards future generations.