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Observational studies have demonstrated that the pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV) is associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular events. This may be mediated through IgM antibodies to OxLDL, which have previously been associated with cardioprotective effects. The Australian Study for the Prevention through Immunisation of Cardiovascular Events (AUSPICE) is a double-blind, randomised controlled trial (RCT) of PPV in preventing ischaemic events. Participants received PPV or placebo once at baseline and are being followed-up for incident fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke over 6 years.A subgroup of participants at one centre (Canberra; n = 1,001) were evaluated at 1 month and 2 years post immunisation for changes in surrogate markers of atherosclerosis, as pre-specified secondary outcomes: high-sensitive C-reactive protein (CRP), pulse wave velocity (PWV), and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT). In addition, 100 participants were randomly selected in each of the intervention and control groups for measurement of anti-pneumococcal antibodies (IgG, IgG2, IgM) as well as anti-OxLDL antibodies (IgG and IgM to CuOxLDL, MDA-LDL, and PC-KLH).Concentrations of anti-pneumococcal IgG and IgG2 increased and remained high at 2 years in the PPV group compared to the placebo group, while IgM increased and then declined, but remained detectable, at 2 years. There were statistically significant increases in all anti-OxLDL IgM antibodies at 1 month, which were no longer detectable at 2 years; there was no increase in anti-OxLDL IgG antibodies. There were no significant changes in CRP, PWV or CIMT between the treatment groups at the 2-year follow-up.PPV engenders a long-lasting increase in anti-pneumococcal IgG, and to a lesser extent, IgM titres, as well as a transient increase in anti-OxLDL IgM antibodies. However, there were no detectable changes in surrogate markers of atherosclerosis at the 2-year follow-up. Long-term, prospective follow-up of clinical outcomes is continuing to assess if PPV reduces CVD events.

Our prespecified dose-response analyses of A Very Early Rehabilitation Trial (AVERT) aim to provide practical guidance for clinicians on the timing, frequency, and amount of mobilization following acute stroke.Eligible patients were aged ≥18 years, had confirmed first (or recurrent) stroke, and were admitted to a stroke unit within 24 hours of stroke onset. Patients were randomized to receive very early and frequent mobilization, commencing within 24 hours, or usual care. We used regression analyses and Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to investigate the effect of timing and dose of mobilization on efficacy and safety outcomes, irrespective of assigned treatment group.A total of 2,104 patients were enrolled, of whom 2,083 (99.0%) were followed up at 3 months. We found a consistent pattern of improved odds of favorable outcome in efficacy and safety outcomes with increased daily frequency of out-of-bed sessions (odds ratio [OR] 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09 to 1.18, p0.001), keeping time to first mobilization and mobilization amount constant. Increased amount (minutes per day) of mobilization reduced the odds of a good outcome (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.97, p0.001). Session frequency was the most important variable in the CART analysis, after prognostic variables age and baseline stroke severity.These data suggest that shorter, more frequent mobilization early after acute stroke is associated with greater odds of favorable outcome at 3 months when controlling for age and stroke severity.This study provides Class III evidence that shorter, more frequent early mobilization improves the chance of regaining independence after stroke.

Background—World mapping is an important tool to visualize stroke burden and its trends in various regions and countries.\ud \ud Objectives—To show geographic patterns of incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs), and their trends for ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) in the world for 1990 to 2013.\ud \ud Methodology—Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs and YLDs were estimated following the general approach of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 with several important improvements in methods. Data were updated for mortality (through April 2014) and stroke incidence, prevalence, case fatality, and severity through 2013. Death was estimated using an ensemble modelling approach. A new software package, DisMod-MR 2.0 was used as part of a custom modelling process to estimate YLDS. All rates were age-standardized to new GBD estimates of global population. All estimates have been computed with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI).\ud \ud Results—Age-standardized incidence, mortality, prevalence and DALYs/YLDs declined over the period from 1990 to 2013. However, the absolute number of people affected by stroke has substantially increased across all countries in the world over the same time period, suggesting that the global stroke burden continues to increase. There were significant geographical (country and regional) differences in stroke burden in the world, with the majority of the burden borne by low- and middle-income countries.\ud \ud Conclusions—Global burden of stroke has continued to increase in spite of dramatic declines in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality rates, and disability. Population growth and ageing have played an important role in the observed increase in stroke burden.

Background: Accurate information on stroke burden in men and women are important for evidence-based healthcare planning and resource allocation. Previously, limited research suggested that the absolute number of deaths from stroke in women was greater than in men, but the incidence and mortality rates were greater in men. However, sex differences in various metrics of stroke burden on a global scale have not been a subject of comprehensive and comparable assessment for most regions of the world, nor have sex differences in stroke burden been examined for trends over time. Methods: Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and healthy years lost due to disability were estimated as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 Study. Data inputs included all available information on stroke incidence, prevalence and death and case fatality rates. Analysis was performed separately by sex and 5-year age categories for 188 countries. Statistical models were employed to produce globally comprehensive results over time. All rates were age-standardized to a global population and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were computed. Findings: In 2013, global ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) incidence (per 100,000) in men (IS 132.77 (95% UI 125.34-142.77); HS 64.89 (95% UI 59.82-68.85)) exceeded those of women (IS 98.85 (95% UI 92.11-106.62); HS 45.48 (95% UI 42.43-48.53)). IS incidence rates were lower in 2013 compared with 1990 rates for both sexes (1990 male IS incidence 147.40 (95% UI 137.87-157.66); 1990 female IS incidence 113.31 (95% UI 103.52-123.40)), but the only significant change in IS incidence was among women. Changes in global HS incidence were not statistically significant for males (1990 = 65.31 (95% UI 61.63-69.0), 2013 = 64.89 (95% UI 59.82-68.85)), but was significant for females (1990 = 64.892 (95% UI 59.82-68.85), 2013 = 45.48 (95% UI 42.427-48.53)). The number of DALYs related to IS rose from 1990 (male = 16.62 (95% UI 13.27-19.62), female = 17.53 (95% UI 14.08-20.33)) to 2013 (male = 25.22 (95% UI 20.57-29.13), female = 22.21 (95% UI 17.71-25.50)). The number of DALYs associated with HS also rose steadily and was higher than DALYs for IS at each time point (male 1990 = 29.91 (95% UI 25.66-34.54), male 2013 = 37.27 (95% UI 32.29-45.12); female 1990 = 26.05 (95% UI 21.70-30.90), female 2013 = 28.18 (95% UI 23.68-33.80)). Interpretation: Globally, men continue to have a higher incidence of IS than women while significant sex differences in the incidence of HS were not observed. The total health loss due to stroke as measured by DALYs was similar for men and women for both stroke subtypes in 2013, with HS higher than IS. Both IS and HS DALYs show an increasing trend for both men and women since 1990, which is statistically significant only for IS among men. Ongoing monitoring of sex differences in the burden of stroke will be needed to determine if disease rates among men and women continue to diverge. Sex disparities related to stroke will have important clinical and policy implications that can guide funding and resource allocation for national, regional and global health programs.

Background: Global stroke epidemiology is changing rapidly. Although age-standardized rates of stroke mortality have decreased worldwide in the past 2 decades, the absolute numbers of people who have a stroke every year, and live with the consequences of stroke or die from their stroke, are increasing. Regular updates on the current level of stroke burden are important for advancing our knowledge on stroke epidemiology and facilitate organization and planning of evidence-based stroke care. Objectives: This study aims to estimate incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) and their trends for ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. Methodology: Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs and YLDs were estimated using all available data on mortality and stroke incidence, prevalence and excess mortality. Statistical models and country-level covariate data were employed, and all rates were age-standardized to a global population. All estimates were produced with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: In 2013, there were globally almost 25.7 million stroke survivors (71% with IS), 6.5 million deaths from stroke (51% died from IS), 113 million DALYs due to stroke (58% due to IS) and 10.3 million new strokes (67% IS). Over the 1990-2013 period, there was a significant increase in the absolute number of DALYs due to IS, and of deaths from IS and HS, survivors and incident events for both IS and HS. The preponderance of the burden of stroke continued to reside in developing countries, comprising 75.2% of deaths from stroke and 81.0% of stroke-related DALYs. Globally, the proportional contribution of stroke-related DALYs and deaths due to stroke compared to all diseases increased from 1990 (3.54% (95% UI 3.11-4.00) and 9.66% (95% UI 8.47-10.70), respectively) to 2013 (4.62% (95% UI 4.01-5.30) and 11.75% (95% UI 10.45-13.31), respectively), but there was a diverging trend in developed and developing countries with a significant increase in DALYs and deaths in developing countries, and no measurable change in the proportional contribution of DALYs and deaths from stroke in developed countries. Conclusion: Global stroke burden continues to increase globally. More efficient stroke prevention and management strategies are urgently needed to halt and eventually reverse the stroke pandemic, while universal access to organized stroke services should be a priority.

Anemia is an important cause of health loss. We estimated levels and trends of nonfatal anemia burden for 23 distinct etiologies in 188 countries, 20 age groups, and both sexes from 1990 to 2013. All available population-level anemia data were collected and standardized. We estimated mean hemoglobin, prevalence of anemia by severity, quantitative disability owing to anemia, and underlying etiology for each population using the approach of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2013 Study. Anemia burden is high. Developing countries account for 89% of all anemia-related disability. Iron-deficiency anemia remains the dominant cause of anemia. Anders Larsson ingår i gruppen GBD 2013 Anemia Collaborators som består av 37 medlemmar.

15 p., Background The Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases comprises the majority of the world’s public research funding agencies. It is focussed on implementation research to tackle the burden of chronic diseases in low- and middle-income countries and amongst vulnerable populations in high-income countries. In its inaugural research call, 15 projects were funded, focussing on lowering blood pressure-related disease burden. In this study, we describe a reflexive mapping exercise to identify the behaviour change strategies undertaken in each of these projects. Methods Using the Behaviour Change Wheel framework, each team rated the capability, opportunity and motivation of the various actors who were integral to each project (e.g. community members, non-physician health workers and doctors in projects focussed on service delivery). Teams then mapped the interventions they were implementing and determined the principal policy categories in which those interventions were operating. Guidance was provided on the use of Behaviour Change Wheel to support consistency in responses across teams. Ratings were iteratively discussed and refined at several group meetings. Results There was marked variation in the perceived capabilities, opportunities and motivation of the various actors who were being targeted for behaviour change strategies. Despite this variation, there was a high degree of synergy in interventions functions with most teams utilising complex interventions involving education, training, enablement, environmental restructuring and persuasion oriented strategies. Similar policy categories were also targeted across teams particularly in the areas of guidelines, communication/marketing and service provision with few teams focussing on fiscal measures, regulation and legislation. Conclusions The large variation in preparedness to change behaviour amongst the principal actors across these projects suggests that the interventions themselves will be variably taken up, despite the similarity in approaches taken. The findings highlight the importance of contextual factors in driving success and failure of research programmes. Forthcoming outcome and process evaluations from each project will build on this exploratory work and provide a greater understanding of factors that might influence scale-up of intervention strategies.

Introduction: Very early rehabilitation may be an important component of effective stroke unit care, but this requires testing. AVERT is an international clinical trial which can enroll eligible patients treated with rtPA if the physician allows. Patients randomized to intervention, commence training within 24hrs of stroke onset. Hypothesis: AVERT tests whether very early and frequent out of bed activity post stroke reduces 90 day death and disability. Due to the 24 hour time window, we hypothesized that around 20% of patients in the trial would be treated with rtPA. Methods: Inclusion criteria: adults over 18 yrs admitted within 24 hrs of stroke, whose physiological parameters fall within set limits. Exclusions: patients with severe premorbid disability, severe comorbidities or requiring palliative care. The intervention is delivered by a nurse/physiotherapy team and starts within 24 hours, for a maximum of 14 days. Control group patients receive standard care. A blinded assessor evaluates 3 and 12 month outcomes. Primary outcome: 3 month modified Rankin Scale. Secondary outcomes include complication rates, quality of life, time to walking (days) and cost effectiveness. Sample size is 2104 patients (n=1052 per group) with recruitment from 5 countries (Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Singapore, UK). Patients are followed for 12 months with primary endpoint (mRS) at 90 days. Results: Current recruitment sits at 2017 patients and is expected to close in early October 2014. Recruited patients: mean(SD) age: 70.6(12.9) years; male: 61.0%; first stroke: 81.5%; infarct 87.8%; mean(SD) NIHSS: 8.7(6.3); rtPA: 24.0%. Data completion rates are excellent: primary and secondary outcome over 90%, cognitive function and mood over 80%. rtPA patients have been recruited from Australia (250 patients), UK (189), New Zealand (30), Singapore and Malaysia (6 each). Conclusions: The trial data quality is high. The Data Monitoring Committee has met 14 times and no safety issues have been identified. By the conclusion of the trial we expect to have recruited 500 patients treated with rtPA.

Summary Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2–8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Rationale Stroke is a major cause of long-term adult disability with many survivors living in the community relying on family members for on-going support. However, reports of inadequate understanding of rehabilitation techniques are common. A self-management DVD-based observational learning tool may help improve functional outcomes for survivors of stroke and reduce caregivers' burden. Aims This article describes the methodology of the stroke self-management rehabilitation trial. The overall aim of this pilot trial is to assess the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of a DVD-based intervention for improving functional outcomes of survivors of stroke 2 months postrandomization to inform the design of a full-scale randomized clinical trial. Design Recruitment of a minimum of 20 survivors of stroke and their informal caregivers (where available) in each of the participating centers will occur across multiple international sites. After baseline assessments, participants will be randomly assigned to an intervention or standard care group. The intervention comprises a structured DVD observation and practice schedule over 8 weeks. All participants will complete follow-up assessments. Study outcomes The outcome measures will include a global shift in the Rankin Scale scores and dichotomized scores, changes in quality of life, general health, depression, and caregiver burden at 2 months postrandomization. A qualitative analysis of the effects of the intervention will also be undertaken. Discussion The results of the pilot study will provide knowledge of whether observational learning techniques delivered via DVD can effectively improve recovery after stroke and reduce caregiver burden.

Objective To report the number of participants needed to recruit per baby born to trial staff during AVERT, a large international trial on acute stroke, and to describe trial management consequences. Design Retrospective observational analysis. Setting 56 acute stroke hospitals in eight countries. Participants 1074 trial physiotherapists, nurses, and other clinicians. Outcome measures Number of babies born during trial recruitment per trial participant recruited. Results With 198 site recruitment years and 2104 patients recruited during AVERT, 120 babies were born to trial staff. Births led to an estimated 10% loss in time to achieve recruitment. Parental leave was linked to six trial site closures. The number of participants needed to recruit per baby born was 17.5 (95% confidence interval 14.7 to 21.0); additional trial costs associated with each birth were estimated at 5736 Australian dollars on average. Conclusion The staff absences registered in AVERT owing to parental leave led to delayed trial recruitment and increased costs, and should be considered by trial investigators when planning research and estimating budgets. However, the celebration of new life became a highlight of the annual AVERT collaborators’ meetings and helped maintain a cohesive collaborative group. Trial registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry no 12606000185561. Disclaimer Participation in a rehabilitation trial does not guarantee successful reproductive activity.

Background The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world. Objectives The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden. Methods CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Results In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI >0.75. Conclusions CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD.