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Introduction People who present with more advanced stage head and neck cancer (HNC) are associated with poorer outcomes and survival. The burden and trends of advanced stage HNC are not fully known at the population level. The UK national cancer registries routinely collect data on HNC diagnoses.Aims To describe trends in stage of diagnosis of HNCs across the UK before the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods Aggregated HNC incidence data were requested from the national cancer registries of the four UK countries for the ten most recent years of available data by subsite and American Joint Commission on Cancer stage at diagnosis classification. Additionally, data for Scotland were available by age group, sex and area-based socioeconomic deprivation category.Results Across the UK, rates of advanced stage HNC had increased, with 59% of patients having advanced disease at diagnosis from 2016-2018. England had a lower proportion of advanced disease (58%) than Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland (65-69%) where stage data were available. The completeness of stage data had improved over recent years (87% by 2018).Conclusion Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, diagnoses of HNC at an advanced stage comprised the majority of HNCs in the UK, representing the major challenge for the cancer healthcare system.

Background The impact of COVID-19 on physical and mental health and employment after hospitalisation with acute disease is not well understood. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of COVID-19-related hospitalisation on health and employment, to identify factors associated with recovery, and to describe recovery phenotypes. Methods The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a multicentre, long-term follow-up study of adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital in the UK with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19, involving an assessment between 2 and 7 months after discharge, including detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical testing. Multivariable logistic regression was done for the primary outcome of patient-perceived recovery, with age, sex, ethnicity, body-mass index, comorbidities, and severity of acute illness as covariates. A post-hoc cluster analysis of outcomes for breathlessness, fatigue, mental health, cognitive impairment, and physical performance was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach. The study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN10980107). Findings We report findings for 1077 patients discharged from hospital between March 5 and Nov 30, 2020, who underwent assessment at a median of 5·9 months (IQR 4·9–6·5) after discharge. Participants had a mean age of 58 years (SD 13); 384 (36%) were female, 710 (69%) were of white ethnicity, 288 (27%) had received mechanical ventilation, and 540 (50%) had at least two comorbidities. At follow-up, only 239 (29%) of 830 participants felt fully recovered, 158 (20%) of 806 had a new disability (assessed by the Washington Group Short Set on Functioning), and 124 (19%) of 641 experienced a health-related change in occupation. Factors associated with not recovering were female sex, middle age (40–59 years), two or more comorbidities, and more severe acute illness. The magnitude of the persistent health burden was substantial but only weakly associated with the severity of acute illness. Four clusters were identified with different severities of mental and physical health impairment (n=767): very severe (131 patients, 17%), severe (159, 21%), moderate along with cognitive impairment (127, 17%), and mild (350, 46%). Of the outcomes used in the cluster analysis, all were closely related except for cognitive impairment. Three (3%) of 113 patients in the very severe cluster, nine (7%) of 129 in the severe cluster, 36 (36%) of 99 in the moderate cluster, and 114 (43%) of 267 in the mild cluster reported feeling fully recovered. Persistently elevated serum C-reactive protein was positively associated with cluster severity. Interpretation We identified factors related to not recovering after hospital admission with COVID-19 at 6 months after discharge (eg, female sex, middle age, two or more comorbidities, and more acute severe illness), and four different recovery phenotypes. The severity of physical and mental health impairments were closely related, whereas cognitive health impairments were independent. In clinical care, a proactive approach is needed across the acute severity spectrum, with interdisciplinary working, wide access to COVID-19 holistic clinical services, and the potential to stratify care. Funding UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Background: \ud In many high-income countries cancer mortality rates have declined, however, socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality have widened over time with those in the most deprived areas bearing the greatest burden. Less is known about the contribution of specific cancers to inequalities in total cancer mortality.\ud \ud Methods: \ud Using high-quality routinely collected population and mortality records we examine long-term trends in cancer mortality rates in Scotland by age group, sex, and area deprivation. We use the decomposed slope and relative indices of inequality to identify the specific cancers that contribute most to absolute and relative inequalities, respectively, in total cancer mortality.\ud \ud Results: \ud Cancer mortality rates fell by 24 % for males and 10 % for females over the last 35 years; declining across all age groups except females aged 75+ where rates rose by 14 %. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer death. Mortality rates of lung cancer have more than halved for males since 1981, while rates among females have almost doubled over the same period.\ud \ud Conclusion: \ud Current relative inequalities in total cancer mortality are dominated by inequalities in lung cancer mortality, but with contributions from other cancer sites including liver, and head and neck (males); and breast (females), stomach and cervical (younger females). An understanding of which cancer sites contribute most to inequalities in total cancer mortality is crucial for improving cancer health and care, and for reducing preventable cancer deaths.

Background The number of patients with assault-related sharp force injury has declined in recent years in Scotland. This study aimed to determine the incidence of these injuries over time and to explore their key socio-demographic determinants. Methods Routinely collected coded hospital admission data for the time period 2001–2013 were used to calculate annual incidence rates by age-group, gender, geographical region, and area-based Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation using midyear population estimates. A Poisson regression analysis model was developed including the variables: age-group, gender, year, geographical region, and deprivation quintile. The data were compared with available published crime data. Results The incidence of sharp force injury showed an ongoing decline between 2001 and 2013. The fall was greatest among young people and in the West of Scotland and mirrored the reduction in weapons and knife related offences. The relative risk of sustaining a sharp force injury was greatest for younger age-groups, among males, and in those resident in the West of Scotland and in areas of socioeconomic deprivation. Conclusions There already exist a range of violence prevention measures in Scotland, but in order to further reduce the inequality associated with sharp force injury, interventions should be further targeted to working with younger men from deprived communities of Scotland.

Background: We investigated long‐term survival from head and neck cancer (HNC) using different survival approaches. Methods: Patients were followed‐up from the Scottish Audit of Head and Neck Cancer. Overall survival and disease‐specific survival were calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Net survival was calculated by the Pohar‐Perme method. Mutually adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the predictors of survival. Results: A total of 1820 patients were included in the analyses. Overall survival at 12 years was 26.3% (24.3%, 28.3%). Disease‐specific survival at 12 years was 56.9% (54.3%, 59.4%). Net survival at 12 years was 41.4% (37.6%, 45.1%). Conclusion: Determinants associated with long‐term survival included age, stage, treatment modality, WHO performance status, alcohol consumption, smoking behavior, and anatomical site. We recommend that net survival is used for long‐term outcomes for HNC patients—it disentangles other causes of death, which are overestimated in overall survival and underestimated in disease‐specific survival.

Hidden hot springs likely impact rural water supplies in Malawi’s Rift Valley with excess dissolved fluoride leading to localised endemic severe dental fluorosis. Predicting their occurrence is a challenge, Malawi’s groundwater data archive is sporadic and incomplete which prevents the application of standard modelling techniques. A creative alternative method to predict hidden hot spring locations was developed using a synthesis of proxy indicators (geological, geochemical, dental) and is shown to be at least 75% effective. An exciting collaboration between geoscientists and dentists allowed corroboration of severe dental fluorosis with hydrogeological vulnerability. Thirteen hidden hot springs were identified based on synthesised proxy indicators. A vulnerability prediction map for the region was developed and is the first of its kind in Malawi. It allows improved groundwater fluoride prediction in Malawi’s rift basin which hosts the majority of hot springs. Moreover, it allows dentists to recognise geological control over community oral health. Collaborative efforts have proven mutually beneficial, allowing both disciplines to conduct targeted research to improve community wellbeing and health and inform policy development in their respective areas. This work contributes globally in developing nations where incomplete groundwater data and vulnerability to groundwater contamination from hydrothermal fluoride exist in tandem.

Background:\ud \ud Explanations for socioeconomic inequalities in survival of head and neck cancer (HNC) patients have had limited attention and are not well understood.\ud \ud Methods:\ud \ud The UK Head and Neck 5000 prospective clinical cohort study was analyzed. Survival relating to measures of socioeconomic status was explored including area‐based and individual factors. Three‐year overall survival was determined using the Kaplan–Meier method. All‐cause mortality was investigated via adjusted Cox Proportional Hazard models.\ud \ud Results:\ud \ud A total of 3440 people were included. Three‐year overall survival was 76.3% (95% CI 74.9, 77.7). Inequality in survival by deprivation category, highest education level, and financial concerns was explained by age, sex, health, and behavioral factors. None of the potential explanatory factors fully explained the inequality associated with annual household income or the proportion of income of benefits.\ud \ud Conclusion:\ud \ud These results support the interventions to address the financial issues within the wider care and support provided to HNC patients.

ObjectivesChild dental caries is a global public health challenge with high prevalence and wide inequalities. A complex public health programme (Childsmile) was established. We aimed to evaluate the reach of the programme and its impact on child oral health.SettingEducation, health and community settings, Scotland-wide.InterventionsChildsmile (national oral health improvement programme) interventions: nursery-based fluoride varnish applications (FVAs) and supervised daily toothbrushing, community-based Dental Health Support Worker (DHSW) contacts and primary care dental practice visits—delivered to the population via a proportionate universal approach.Participants50 379 children (mean age=5.5 years, SD=0.3) attending local authority schools (2014/2015).DesignPopulation-based individual child-level data on four Childsmile interventions linked to dental inspection survey data to form a longitudinal cohort. Logistic regression assessed intervention reach and the independent impact of each intervention on caries experience, adjusting for age, sex and area-based Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD).Outcome measuresReach of the programme is defined as the percentage of children receiving each intervention at least once by SIMD fifth. Obvious dental caries experience (presence/absence) is defined as the presence of decay (into dentine), missing (extracted) due to decay or filled deciduous teeth.Results15 032 (29.8%) children had caries experience. The universal interventions had high population reach: nursery toothbrushing (89.1%), dental practice visits (70.5%). The targeted interventions strongly favoured children from the most deprived areas: DHSW contacts (SIMD 1: 29.5% vs SIMD 5: 7.7%), nursery FVAs (SIMD 1: 75.2% vs SIMD 5: 23.2%). Odds of caries experience were markedly lower among children participating in nursery toothbrushing (>3 years, adjusted OR (aOR)=0.60; 95% CI 0.55 to 0.66) and attending dental practice (≥6 visits, aOR=0.55; 95% CI 0.50 to 0.61). The findings were less clear for DHSW contacts. Nursery FVAs were not independently associated with caries experience.ConclusionsThe universal interventions, nursery toothbrushing and regular dental practice visits were independently and most strongly associated with reduced odds of caries experience in the cohort, with nursery toothbrushing having the greatest impact among children in areas of high deprivation.

Studies suggest that fluoride varnish (FV) application can reduce dental caries in child populations. The multiple-component national child oral health improvement programme in Scotland (Childsmile) includes nursery-based universal supervised toothbrushing and deprivation-targeted FV applications, together with community and dental practice prevention interventions. This trial, a double-blind, two-arm randomised control trial, aimed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the nursery-based FV applications plus treatment-as-usual (TAU) Childsmile programme interventions, compared to TAU Childsmile interventions alone, in children not targeted to receive nursery FV as part of the programme. Participating children in the first year of nursery (aged three), with or without existing caries, were randomised to either FV or TAU and followed up for 24 months until the first year of primary school. Treatments were administered at six-monthly intervals. The primary endpoint was “worsening of d3mft” from baseline to 24 months. Secondary endpoints were worsening of d3mfs, d3t, mt, and ft. Individual record-linkage captured wider programme activities and tertiary endpoints. A total of 1,284 children were randomised, leading to 1,150 evaluable children (n = 577 FV, n = 573 TAU, 10% dropouts). Mean age was 3.5 years, 50% were female (n = 576), 17% had caries at baseline (n = 195), all balanced between the groups. Most children received three/four treatments. Overall, 26.9% (n = 155) had worsened d3mft in the FV group, and 31.6% (n = 181) in the TAU group, with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.80 (0.62–1.03), p = 0.078. The results for worsening of the secondary endpoints were: d3mfs 0.79 (0.61–1.01) p = 0.063, d3t 0.75 (0.57–0.99) p = 0.043, mt 1.34 (0.75–2.39) p = 0.319, and ft 0.77 (0.53–1.14) p = 0.191. We calculated a number needed to treat of 21 and a cost of GBP 686 to prevent a single worsening of d3mft. There was a modest non-significant reduction in the worsening of d3mft in the nursery FV group compared to TAU, suggesting that this intervention is unlikely to represent an effective or cost-effective addition to the population oral health improvement programme.

BackgroundThe association between socioeconomic disadvantage (low education and/or income) and head and neck cancer is well established, with smoking and alcohol consumption explaining up to three-quarters of the risk. We aimed to investigate the nature of and explanations for head and neck cancer risk associated with occupational socioeconomic prestige (a perceptual measure of psychosocial status), occupational socioeconomic position and manual-work experience, and to assess the potential explanatory role of occupational exposures.MethodsPooled analysis included 5818 patients with head and neck cancer (and 7326 control participants) from five studies in Europe and South America. Lifetime job histories were coded to: (1) occupational social prestige—Treiman’s Standard International Occupational Prestige Scale (SIOPS); (2) occupational socioeconomic position—International Socio-Economic Index (ISEI); and (3) manual/non-manual jobs.ResultsFor the longest held job, adjusting for smoking, alcohol and nature of occupation, increased head and neck cancer risk estimates were observed for low SIOPS OR=1.88 (95% CI: 1.64 to 2.17), low ISEI OR=1.74 (95% CI: 1.51 to 1.99) and manual occupations OR=1.49 (95% CI: 1.35 to 1.64). Following mutual adjustment by socioeconomic exposures, risk associated with low SIOPS remained OR=1.59 (95% CI: 1.30 to 1.94).ConclusionsThese findings indicate that low occupational socioeconomic prestige, position and manual work are associated with head and neck cancer, and such risks are only partly explained by smoking, alcohol and occupational exposures. Perceptual occupational psychosocial status (SIOPS) appears to be the strongest socioeconomic factor, relative to socioeconomic position and manual/non-manual work.

Background: Socioeconomic inequalities impact on the survival of head and neck cancer (HNC) patients, but there is limited understanding of the explanations of the inequality, particularly in long-term survival.\ud \ud Methods: Patients were recruited from the Scottish Audit of Head and Neck Cancer between 1999 and 2001 and were linked to mortality data as at 30th September 2013. Socioeconomic status was determined using the area-based Carstairs 2001 index. Overall and disease-specific survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method with 95% confidence intervals (CI's) at 1-, 5-, and 12-years. Net survival at 1-, 5-, and 12-years was also computed with 95% CIs. Cox proportional hazard models with 95% CIs were used to determine the explanations for the inequality in survival by all-cause mortality and disease-specific mortality with 95% CIs.\ud \ud Results: Most patients were from the most deprived group, and were more likely to smoke, drink, have cancer of a higher stage and have a lower WHO Performance Status. A clear gradient across Carstairs fifths for unadjusted overall and disease-specific survival was observed at 1-, 5-, and 12-years for patients with HNC. Following the adjustment for multiple patient, tumor and treatment factors, the inequality in survival for patients with HNC had attenuated and was no longer statistically significant at 1-, 5-, and 12-years.\ud \ud Conclusion: A clear gradient across Carstairs fifths for unadjusted overall, disease-specific and net survival was observed at 1-, 5-, and 12-years for HNC patients in Scotland from 1999 to 2001. This study concludes that explanations for the inequality in the survival of patients with HNC are not straightforward, and that many factors including various patient, tumor and treatment factors play a part in the inequality in the survival of patients with HNC.

Aim:\ud \ud To examine current incidence trends (1975–2012) of oral cavity (OCC), oropharyngeal (OPC) and laryngeal cancer in Scotland by socioeconomic status (SES).\ud \ud Methods:\ud \ud We included all diagnosed cases of OCC (C00.3-C00.9, C02-C06 excluding C2.4), OPC (C01, C2.4, C09-C10, C14) and laryngeal cancer (C32) on the Scottish Cancer Registry (1975–2012) and annual midterm population estimates by age, sex, geographic region and SES indices (Carstairs 1991 and Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009). Age-standardized incidence rates were computed and adjusted Poisson regression rate-ratios (RR) compared subsites by age, sex, region, SES and year of diagnosis.\ud \ud Results:\ud \ud We found 28,217 individuals (19,755 males and 8462 females) diagnosed with head and neck cancer (HNC) over the study period. Between 1975 and 2012, relative to the least deprived areas, those living in the most deprived areas exhibited the highest RR (>double) of OCC, OPC and laryngeal cancer, and an almost dose-like response was observed between SES and HNC incidence. Between 2001 and 2012, this socioeconomic inequality tended to increase over time for OPC and laryngeal cancer but remained relatively unchanged for OCC. Incidence rates increased markedly for OPC, decreased for laryngeal cancer and remained stable for OCC, particularly in the last decade. Males exhibited significantly higher RRs compared to females, and the peak age of incidence of OPC was slightly lower than the other subsites.\ud \ud Conclusion:\ud \ud Contrary to reports that OPC exhibits an inverse socioeconomic profile, Scotland country-level data show that those from the most deprived areas consistently have the highest rates of head and neck cancers.

Objective: To measure agreement between dental therapists and the\ud Scottish gold-standard dentist undertaking National Dental Inspection\ud Programme (NDIP) examinations. Methods: A study of interexaminer\ud agreement between 19 dental therapists and the national gold-standard dentist\ud was carried out. Pre-calibration training used the caries diagnostic criteria and\ud examination techniques agreed by the British Association for the Study of\ud Community Dentistry (BASCD). Twenty-three 5-year-old children (Primary 1)\ud and 17 11-year-old children (Primary 7) children were examined. Agreement\ud was assessed using kappa statistics on d 3 mft and D 3 MFT for P1 and P7 children, sensitivity and specificity values, and kappa statistics on d 3 t/D 3 T and\ud ft/FT. Calibration data on P1 and P7 children from 2009–2012 involving\ud dentists as examiners were used for comparison. Economic evaluation was\ud undertaken using a cost minimization analysis approach. Results: The mean\ud kappa score was 0.84 (SD 0.07) ranging from 0.69 to 0.94. All dental therapists\ud scored good or very good agreement with the gold-standard dentist. This\ud compares with historic NDIP calibration data with dentists, against the same\ud gold-standard dentist, where the mean kappa value was 0.68 (SD 0.22) with a\ud range of 0.35-1.00. The mean sensitivity score was 0.98 (SD 0.04) (range 0.88-1.0)\ud and mean specificity score was 0.90 (SD 0.06) (range 0.78-0.96). Health\ud economic analysis estimated that salary costs would be 33.6% lower if dental\ud therapists were substituted for dentists in the year 2013, with an estimated\ud saving of approximately £103 646 per annum on the national budget.\ud Conclusion: We conclude that dental therapists show a high level of\ud interexaminer agreement, and with the appropriate annual training and\ud calibration, they could undertake dental examinations as part of the NDIP\ud programme.

Introduction:\ud \ud Despite the increasing burden of oral cancer (OC) – including oral cavity (OCC) and oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) – it remains a relatively low-volume disease in Scotland, with anecdotal evidence suggesting that dentists only see between one and two cases in their practising careers.\ud Aims:\ud \ud To examine, for the first time on a population-basis via data linkage, whether early detection by general dental practices (GDP) is a realistic expectation by i) estimating the number of OC cases/year a dentist in Scotland may encounter over time, accounting for the deprivation level of practice location and dental registration/attendance rates, and ii) assessing whether patients attended GDPs two years pre-diagnosis.\ud Materials and methods:\ud \ud Scottish Cancer Registry data on all OC cases (2010-2012), published NHS Scotland dental workforce and registration/participation statistics, and individual patient data linked with NHS dental service activity were analysed.\ud Results:\ud \ud Dentists were estimated to potentially encounter one case of OC every 10 years, OCC every 16.7 years, and OPC every 25 years. However, 53.7% of OC patients had made no dental contact two years pre-diagnosis.\ud Conclusion:\ud \ud Strategies for early detection must consider the rarity of OC incidence and poor dental attendance patterns. These results highlight the importance of improving access and uptake of dental services among those at highest risk to increase the opportunities for early detection.

BackgroundThere is limited evidence on the health needs and service access among children and young people who are looked after by the state. The aim of this study was to compare dental treatment needs and access to dental services (as an exemplar of wider health and well-being concerns) among children and young people who are looked after with the general child population.MethodsPopulation data linkage study utilising national datasets of social work referrals for ‘looked after’ placements, the Scottish census of children in local authority schools, and national health service’s dental health and service datasets.Results633 204 children in publicly funded schools in Scotland during the academic year 2011/2012, of whom 10 927 (1.7%) were known to be looked after during that or a previous year (from 2007–2008). The children in the looked after children (LAC) group were more likely to have urgent dental treatment need at 5 years of age: 23%vs10% (n=209/16533), adjusted (for age, sex and area socioeconomic deprivation) OR 2.65 (95% CI 2.30 to 3.05); were less likely to attend a dentist regularly: 51%vs63% (n=5519/388934), 0.55 (0.53 to 0.58) and more likely to have teeth extracted under general anaesthesia: 9%vs5% (n=967/30253), 1.91 (1.78 to 2.04).ConclusionsLAC are more likely to have dental treatment needs and less likely to access dental services even when accounting for sociodemographic factors. Greater efforts are required to integrate child social and healthcare for LAC and to develop preventive care pathways on entering and throughout their time in the care system.

Objectives To assess how type and number of symptoms are related to survival in patients with head and neck cancer. Design Patients were followed up for over 10 years from the Scottish Audit of Head and Neck Cancer (national cohort of head and neck cancer patients in Scotland 1999‐2001). September 2013, cohort was linked to national mortality data. First, second and third presenting symptoms were recorded at diagnosis. Setting National prospective audit—Scotland. Participants A subset of 1589 patients, from the original cohort of 1895, who had cancer arising from one of the four main subsites; larynx, oropharynx, oral cavity and hypopharynx. Main outcome measures Median survival in relation to patients’ presenting symptoms. Results A total of 1146 (72%) males and 443 (28%) females, mean age at diagnosis 64 years (13‐95). There was a significant difference in survival in relation to the number of the patient's presenting symptoms; one symptom had a median survival of 5.3 years compared with 1.1 years for three symptoms. Patients who presented with weight loss had a median survival of 0.8 years, compared to 4.2 years if they did not (P < .001). Patients who presented with hoarseness had a median survival of 5.9 years compared to 2.6 years without (P < .001). There was no significant difference in long‐term survival for patients who presented with an ulcer, compared to those that did not (P = .105). Conclusions This study highlights the importance of patients’ presenting symptoms, giving valuable information in highlighting appropriate “red flag” symptoms and subsequent treatment planning and prognosis.

Background and objectives: \ud \ud Children in state care (‘looked after children’) have poorer health than children who are not looked after. Recent developments in Scotland and elsewhere have aimed to improve services and outcomes for looked after children. Routine monitoring of the health outcomes of looked after children compared to those of their non-looked after peers is currently lacking. Developing capacity for comparative monitoring of population-based outcomes based on linkage of routinely collected administrative data has been identified as a priority. To our knowledge there are no existing population-based data linkage studies providing data on the health of looked after and non-looked after children at national level. Smaller scale studies that are available generally provide very limited information on linkage methods and hence do not allow scrutiny of bias that may be introduced through the linkage process.\ud \ud Study design and methods: \ud \ud National demonstration project testing the feasibility of linking routinely collected looked after children, education and health data.\ud \ud Participants: \ud \ud All children in publicly funded school in Scotland in 2011/12.\ud \ud Results: \ud \ud Linkage between looked after children data and the national pupil census classified 10,009 (1.5%) and 1757 (0.3%) of 670,952 children as, respectively, currently and previously looked after. Recording of the unique pupil identifier (Scottish Candidate Number, SCN) on looked after children returns is incomplete, with 66% of looked after records for 2011/12 for children of possible school age containing a valid SCN. This will have resulted in some under-ascertainment of currently and, particularly, previously looked after children within the general pupil population. Further linkage of the pupil census to the National Health Service Scotland master patient index demonstrated that a safe link to the child's unique health service (Community Health Index) number could be obtained for a very high proportion of children in each group (94%, 95% and 95% of children classified as currently, previously, and non-looked after, respectively). In general, linkage rates were higher for older children and those living in more affluent areas. Within the looked after group, linkage rates were highest for children with the fewest placements and for those in permanent fostering.\ud \ud Conclusions: \ud \ud This novel data linkage demonstrates the feasibility of monitoring population-based health outcomes of school-aged looked after and non-looked after children using linked routine administrative data. Improved recording of the unique pupil identifier number on looked after data returns would be beneficial. Extending the range of personal identifiers on looked after children returns would enable linkage to health data for looked after children who are not in publicly funded schooling (i.e. those who are preschool or postschool, home schooled or in independent schooling).

ObjectivesChildren that are ‘looked after’ include those that are accommodated in foster, kinship and residential care placements, as well as those at home on compulsory supervision. They have poorer physical and mental health than their peers and there are concerns about the relatively high levels of untreated morbidity. Oral health and access to dental services among Looked After Children (LAC) has received limited attention to date. The objective of this study was to compare the oral health and access to dental services of children who are looked after by the state, with comparable children in the general population. ApproachSchool and Social Work datasets were able to be linked using the Scottish Exchange of Data (ScotXed) Unit. This in turn was linked with health data making use of the Scottish national record-linkage system provided by the NHS eDRIS team for the FARR Institute Scotland. All of the following datasets used in this study are complete national datasets for the time periods noted. School Pupil Census 2012: a census of children in local authority primary and secondary schools that provides each child’s age, sex and socioeconomic status as measured by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD). The other datasets cover the period 2008-2012: LAC- all children with social work referrals for various types of placement; registration with dentists; hospital discharge data for all episodes of tooth extraction; National Dental Inspection Programme (NDIP) data from Primary 1 and Primary 7 school years (dental decay). The LAC group were compared to their peers by logistic regression adjusted by SIMD, using remote access to the National Safe Haven. ResultsThere were 633204 subjects in the study group (10927 LAC, 622280 nonLAC). Ages ranged from four to 17 years (mean 12 LAC and 10 nonLAC); with 53% male for LAC and 51% nonLAC; and 42% in the most deprived SIMD level for LAC and 21% for non-LAC. The subjects in the LAC group were more likely to have dental decay at Primary 1, odds-ratio (OR) 2.93 (2.55, 3.38), and Primary 7, OR 1.81 (1.68, 1.94). LAC subjects were less likely to be registered with a dentist, OR 0.50 (0.43, 0.59), and more likely to have teeth extracted, OR 1.50 (1.40, 1.60). All tests p

Low socioeconomic status has been reported to be associated with head and neck cancer risk. However, previous studies have been too small to examine the associations by cancer subsite, age, sex, global region and calendar time and to explain the association in terms of behavioral risk factors. Individual participant data of 23,964 cases with head and neck cancer and 31,954 controls from 31 studies in 27 countries pooled with random effects models. Overall, low education was associated with an increased risk of head and neck cancer (OR = 2.50; 95% CI = 2.02 – 3.09). Overall one-third of the increased risk was not explained by differences in the distribution of cigarette smoking and alcohol behaviors; and it remained elevated among never users of tobacco and nondrinkers (OR = 1.61; 95% CI = 1.13 – 2.31). More of the estimated education effect was not explained by cigarette smoking and alcohol behaviors: in women than in men, in older than younger groups, in the oropharynx than in other sites, in South/Central America than in Europe/North America and was strongest in countries with greater income inequality. Similar findings were observed for the estimated effect of low versus high household income. The lowest levels of income and educational attainment were associated with more than 2-fold increased risk of head and neck cancer, which is not entirely explained by differences in the distributions of behavioral risk factors for these cancers and which varies across cancer sites, sexes, countries and country income inequality levels.

To our knowledge, sociodemographic determinants of facial injuries in children have not previously been reported in Scotland. We analysed the pattern, time trends, and key sociodemographic determinants of facial injuries in children and adolescents using Scottish morbidity records for inpatient care (2001–2009) which were retrieved from the Information Services Division of National Health Services (NHS) Scotland. We calculated annual incidences by age, sex, health board, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), and mechanism of injury. A Poisson regression analysis model was used to incorporate the variables. A total of 45 388 patients aged from birth to 17 years sustained a facial injury (4.7/1000 population over nine years); 60% (27 101) of injuries were unintentional, 15% (6726) resulted from motor vehicle accidents, and 9% (4149) resulted from alleged assaults; 5% (2058) were alcohol related. The incidence decreased over time from 5.5/1000 in 2001 to 4.0/1000 in 2009. The rate ratio for boys was 1.94 times greater than for girls (p < 0.001), and it varied significantly between health board areas (0.68 in Dumfries and Galloway and 1.76 in Grampian) (p < 0.001). There was a significant association between facial injury and increasing deprivation (p < 0.001). The incidence of facial injury is highest among boys living in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation so education and resources should be directed towards prevention in these areas.

Background Lung and upper aero-digestive tract (UADT) cancer risk is associated with socioeconomic inequality (SEI) but the degree of socioeconomic burden by age, tumour subtype, and sex is not known. Methods We reviewed 216,305 cases excluding non melanoma skin cancer (All Cancer) comprising 37,274 lung; 8216 head and neck; and 6534 oesophageal cancers from 2000 to 2007 classified into anatomical or morphology subtypes. Deprivation was measured using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation and SEI was measured using the Slope Index of Inequality and the Relative Index of Inequality (RII). Analyses were partitioned by 5-year age group and sex. RII was adapted to rank tumour type contribution to All Cancer SEI and to examine subtype by age and sex simultaneously. Rank was defined as proportion of All Cancer SEI. Results All Cancer SEI was greater for males (RII=0.366; female RII=0.279); the combination of lung and UADT SEI contributed 91% and 81% respectively to All Cancer SEI. For both sexes lung and UADT subtypes showed significant SEI ( P P =0.193); for females, SEI was borderline significant ( P =0.048). Although RII rank differed by sex, all lung and larynx subtypes contributed most to All Cancer SEI with RII rank for oral cavity, oesophagus-squamous cell, and oropharynx following. For males 40–44 years, SEI increased abruptly peaking at 55–59 years. For females, SEI gradually peaked 10 years later. In both sexes, the SEI peak preceded peak incidence. Conclusion SEI in lung and UADT cancers vary greatly by age, tumour subtype and sex; these variations are likely to largely reflect differences between the sexes in risk behaviours which vary by birth cohort and are socioeconomically patterned.

This article provides an ethical critique of the Good Clinical Practice (GCP) and Declaration of Helsinki (DoH) documents. While the previous criticisms of GCP are entirely correct, there is much more wrong with the document than has previously been acknowledged, including a circular definition and an astonishing vagueness about ethical principles. In addition to its failure to provide adequate ethical protection of participants, the procedurally dense nature of GCP lends itself to a box-ticking culture where important ethical issues are overlooked because they are not ‘mentioned on the form’. In contrast, the DoH is a much more effective ethical document, but actually goes too far in one respect. It transpires that the best ethical guidelines for clinical research would be neither over-prescriptive in regard to particular ethical issues (as the DoH is) nor neglectful of them (as GCP is); correctly framed ethical principles will provide sufficient protection to participants while also ensuring a culture of ethicovigilance in clinical trials.

Purpose In type 2 diabetes, the optimal stage to introduce insulin can be unclear. We compared the incidence of subsequent vascular disease between treatment regimens, that is, adding another oral glucose-lowering drug (OGLD) versus starting insulin treatment. Methods People with poor control on OGLDs who intensified treatment (2000–2007) were grouped by number of baseline OGLDs. Two composite endpoints, of macrovascular disease (all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome and stroke) and of microvascular disease (peripheral neuropathy, nephropathy or retinopathy), together with HbA1c and weight change over a year, were compared in those beginning insulin versus an additional OGLD. All data came from The Health Information Network UK primary care database. Results After exclusions, 14 904 people intensified treatment from one OGLD, 7231 from two and 978 from three, 9, 41 and 90%, respectively, started insulin. Average follow-up was 3.5 years. The adjusted hazard ratios for macrovascular events, OGLD versus insulin, were 0.53 (95%CI 0.42, 0.69) from one baseline treatment, 0.85 (0.70 1.04) from two and 1.07 (0.50, 2.30) from three, with no difference in risk of microvascular disease in any comparison. Mean body weight increased, and mean HbA1c fell across groups; the only significant adjusted comparison was greater weight increase when commencing insulin from one OGLD. Conclusions Starting insulin rather than adding another OGLD to double or triple oral therapy did not significantly increase the incidence of vascular events. Beginning insulin from one OGLD was uncommon. More incident macrovascular disease in this group may be caused by residual confounding. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Background The Scottish Government set out its policy on addressing the poor oral health of Scottish children in 2005. This led to the establishment of Childsmile, a national programme designed to improve the oral health of children in Scotland. One element of the programme promotes daily tooth brushing in all nurseries in Scotland (Childsmile Core). A second targeted component (Childsmile Nursery) offers twice-yearly application of fluoride varnish to children attending nurseries in deprived areas. Studies suggest that fluoride varnish application can reduce caries in both adult and child populations. This trial aims to explore the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of additional preventive value fluoride varnish application compared to Childsmile Core. Methods/Design The Protecting Teeth@3 Study is an ongoing 2 year parallel group randomised treatment as usual controlled trial. Three-year-old children attending the ante pre-school year are randomised (1:1) to the intervention arm (fluoride varnish & treatment as usual) or the control arm (treatment as usual). Children in the intervention arm will have Duraphat® fluoride varnish painted on the primary tooth surfaces and will continue to receive treatment as usual: the core Childsmile Nursery intervention. Children in the treatment as usual arm will receive the same series of contacts, without the application of varnish and will also continue with the Childsmile Core intervention. Interventions are undertaken by Childsmile trained extended duty dental nurses at six-monthly intervals. Participants receive a baseline dental inspection in nursery and an endpoint inspection in Primary 1 at the age of 5 years old. We will use primary and secondary outcome measures to compare the effectiveness of Duraphat® fluoride varnish plus treatment as usual with treatment as usual only in preventing any further dental decay. We will also undertake a full economic evaluation of the trial. Trial registration This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov. Number: NCT01674933 (24 August 2012). Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12903-015-0146-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

We investigated whether differences in duration of first insulin use in type 2 diabetes remain after adjustment for potential confounders, and what factors are associated with longer use.People prescribed a first insulin (2000-2007) after 2-3 non-insulin glucose lowering treatments (OGLD) were identified from the THIN UK primary care database and grouped by insulin, detemir (n=165), glargine (n=1011) or NPH (n=420). Time from beginning insulin to the prescription of another insulin type or a glucagon-like peptide was compared between insulins in a Cox model adjusting for: demographics, HbA1c, history of vascular complications and cardiovascular risk factors. The strength of association between duration of use and these variables was investigated.The adjusted hazard ratios compared to glargine for treatment change were 1.58 (95% CI 1.25, 2.00) for detemir and 1.49 (1.25, 1.78) for NPH. Lower mean treatment HbA(1c) correlated with longer time to a different insulin regimen (Spearman rank correlation -0.30, p0.01) as were continuing OGLDs, older age, longer time from diagnosis, lower body mass index, lower HbA(1c), and no heart failure at baseline.People who began treatment with glargine and those with better on-treatment HbA(1c) remained on their first insulin for longer than those who began detemir or NPH.

Summary Objective: To investigate switching from thiazolidinediones, and predictors for switching treatment, after publication of a meta-analysis reporting an increased risk of myocardial infarction associated with rosiglitazone use. Research design and methods: Using the Health Information Network (THIN) UK primary care database, the number of people with type 2 diabetes prescribed either thiazolidinedione, rosiglitazone (n = 10,062) or pioglitazone (n = 4454), and the rate of switching from thiazolidinediones (n = 3301 and 1106, respectively), were computed for each month, May 2006 to January 2008. The probability of switching post-publication, May 2007 to January 2008, was modelled by logistic regression in a forward stepwise model. Variables included demographics, history of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF) or stroke, risk factors for IHD, glucose-lowering and cardiovascular drug use, HbA1c and diabetes duration. Results: There was a sharp increase in switching from both thiazolidinediones in summer 2007; rosiglitazone prescription numbers then decreased while pioglitazone prescribing increased. Switching from rosiglitazone was associated with IHD [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.72; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.47–2.00], insulin treatment (OR 5.10; 95% CI 3.21–8.10), HF (OR 2.26; 95% CI 1.62–3.18), a recent sulphonylurea prescription (OR 1.33; 95% CI 1.17–1.51) gender (OR men vs. women 0.79; 95% CI 0.70, 0.90) and duration of therapy. Switching from pioglitazone was associated with HF (OR 3.05; 95% CI 1.77–5.26), duration of therapy, and number of glucose-lowering treatments. Conclusions: Prescribing habits for both thiazolidinediones changed immediately following the safety warning. IHD was associated with switching from rosiglitazone; otherwise reasons for change appear to be complex, not directly related to the findings of the meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES We hypothesized that the aldosterone: renin ratio (ARR) predicts the antihypertensive response to mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist, spironolactone (SPIRO), when compared with bendroflumethiazide (BFZ). METHODS We conducted a randomized, crossover, trial on hypertensive patients with either high ARR (HARR defined as >750 and plasma aldosterone >250 pmol/l) or low ARR (LARR defined as

The complex associations between socioeconomic circumstances and risk for head and neck cancer are under-explored. We investigated components of social class and their relative influence on the risk of head and neck cancers by studying 103 patients (age range 24–80 years) who had been diagnosed with cancer of the head and neck between April 2002 and December 2004, and 91 controls who were randomly selected from general practitioners’ lists. Information about occupation, education, smoking, and alcohol consumption was collected at personal interview. Socioeconomic circumstances were measured at an individual level (education, occupational social class, unemployment), and by area-based measures of deprivation. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed using unconditional logistic regression and multivariate analyses. People living in the most deprived areas (OR = 4.66, 95% CI 1.79–12.18); and those who were unemployed (OR = 2.27, 95% CI 1.21–4.26) had a significantly higher risk of cancer than those with high levels of educational attainment (OR = 0.17, 95% CI 0.05–0.58). Significance was lost for all measures of social class when adjustments were made for smoking and consumption of alcohol. Smoking was the only significant risk factor (OR = 15.53, 95% CI 5.36–44.99) in the multivariate analysis. A high risk of head and neck cancer was consistently associated with poor socioeconomic circumstances, and there were strong links for specific components however smoking dominated the overall profile of risk. We propose a framework for future socioeconomic analyses.

The warm, humid environment in modern homes favours the dust mite population, but the effect of improved home ventilation on asthma control has not been established. We tested the hypothesis that a domestic mechanical heat recovery ventilation system (MHRV), in addition to allergen avoidance measures, can improve asthma control by attenuating re-colonization rates. We conducted a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled parallel group trial of the installation of MHRV activated in half the homes of 120 adults with asthma, allergic to Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus. All homes had carpets steam cleaned and new bedding and mattress covers at baseline. The primary outcome was morning peak expiratory flow (PEF) at 12 months. At 12 months, the primary end-point; change in mean morning PEF as compared with baseline, did not differ between the MHRV group and the control group (mean difference 13.5 l/min, 95% CI: −2.6 to 29.8, P = 0.10). However, a secondary end-point; evening mean PEF, was significantly improved in the MHRV group (mean difference 24.5 l/min, 95% CI: 8.9-40.1, P = 0.002). Indoor relative humidity was reduced in MHRV homes, but there was no difference between the groups in Der p 1 levels, compared with baseline. The addition of MHRV to house dust mite eradication strategies did not achieve a reduction in mite allergen levels, but did improve evening PEF.

Objective We aimed to investigate the association between socioeconomic factors and selection and participation biases in a population-based case–control study of head and neck cancer conducted in the city of Glasgow, UK. Methods General Practices (GP) of the case subjects were the sampling frame from which age and sex-matched controls were randomly selected. Participant and nonparticipant postcodes of cases and controls were linked to the area-based Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Comparisons of study selection and participation were made with the Glasgow study-base population. Results Cases were from significantly more deprived areas than controls. Overall, participation was low for both cases (34.9%) and controls (34.7%). Our overall control sample was not similar to the general population of Glasgow having “over selected” from deprived areas. Individuals from more affluent areas were more likely to participate providing a set of interviewed participants reflecting the socioeconomic distribution of Glasgow. Conclusions Low participation rates in case–control studies remain a problem and socioeconomic factors strongly affect participation. A control sample selection biased in one direction was offset by participation bias in the opposite direction—fortuitously providing a representative control sample. Selecting controls from case GP lists needs to be implemented with care with attention paid to obtaining evidence on the underlying socioeconomic characteristics of GP populations, especially for diseases with a skewed socioeconomic distribution.

Caucasian carriers of the T allele at R46L in the proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) locus have been reported to have 15% lower low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (C) levels and 47% lower coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. Our objective was to examine two PCSK9 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), R46L and E670G, in 5,783 elderly participants in PROSPER (Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk), of whom 43% had a history of vascular disease at baseline, and who were randomized to pravastatin or placebo with followup. In this population 3.5% were carriers of the T allele at R46L, and these subjects had significantly (p

Our purpose was to evaluate associations of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at the low density lipoprotein (LDL) receptor (LDLR C44857T, minor allele frequency (MAF) 0.26, and A44964G, MAF 0.25, both in the untranslated region) and HMG-CoA reductase (HMGCR i18T>G, MAF 0.019) gene loci with baseline lipid values, statin induced LDL- cholesterol (C) lowering response, and incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease on trial (CVD). Our population consisted of 5804 elderly men and women with vascular disease or one or more vascular disease risk factors, who were randomly allocated to pravastatin or placebo. Other risk factors and apolipoprotein (apo) E phenotype were controlled for in the analysis. Despite a prior report, no relationships with the HMGCR SNP were noted. For the LDLR SNPs C44857T and A44964G we noted significant associations of the rare alleles with baseline LDL-C and triglyceride levels, a modest association of the C44857T with LDL-C lowering to pravastatin in men, and significant associations with incident CHD and CVD of both SNPs, especially in men on pravastatin. Our data indicate that genetic variation at the LDLR locus can affect baseline lipids, response to pravastatin, and CVD risk in subjects placed on statin treatment.

Background: Statins have anti-inflammatory properties that may be beneficial in the treatment of asthma. We tested the hypothesis that atorvastatin added to inhaled corticosteroids treatment improves lung function and airway inflammation in atopic adults with asthma. Methods: Fifty four adults with atopic asthma were recruited to a double-blind, randomised controlled crossover trial comparing the effect of oral atorvastatin 40 mg daily with that of a matched placebo on asthma control and airway inflammation. Each treatment was administered for 8 weeks separated by a 6-week washout period. The primary outcome was morning peak expiratory flow (PEF). Secondary outcomes included FEV1, asthma control questionnaire score, airway hyperresponsiveness to methacholine, induced sputum cytology and inflammatory biomarkers. Results: At 8 weeks, the change in mean morning PEF, as compared with baseline, did not differ substantially between the atorvastatin and placebo treatment periods [mean difference -0.5 L/min, 95% Cl -10.6 to 9.6, p=0.921]. Values for other clinical outcomes were similar between the atorvastatin and placebo treatment periods. The absolute sputum macrophage count was reduced after atorvastatin compared to placebo [mean difference -45.0x104 cells, 95% Cl -80.1 to -9.7, p=0.029], as was the sputum fluid leukotriene B4 [mean difference -88.1pg/ml, 95% CI -156.4 to -19.9, p=0.014]. Conclusion: The addition of atorvastatin to inhaled corticosteroids results in no short-term improvement in asthma control, but reduces sputum macrophage counts in mild to moderate atopic asthma. We speculate that the change in sputum macrophage count suggests potential areas for investigation of statins in other chronic lung diseases.

Background Evidence shows incapacity benefit claimants (those off sick >26 weeks) are at greatest risk of long-term job loss. Aim To develop a screening tool to select those at risk of job loss, defined as failure to return to work among those off sick. The screening tool was for use in the Job Retention and Rehabilitation Pilot of the Department for Work and Pensions. Methods A literature review identified risks for long-term incapacity and job loss as multifactorial [1]. Potential predictors for return to work were then assembled into a set of questions and tested by a prospective study in general practice surgeries and a retrospective study of occupational health records of local authority employees referred for sickness absence management, using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results Univariate logistic regression analysis of the retrospective study produced odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals for each question (where P ≤ 0.05) and a C-index was then constructed for their predictive power. Five questions holding the greatest predictive power were subjected to multivariate analysis and in the final model had a high C-index of 0.90 (0.5 = no predictive power, 1.0 = perfect prediction). They formed the screening tool. The questions cover self-assessment of ability to return to work after current sick leave, of ability to do current job in 6 months' time, sick leave in past year, current age and whether awaiting a consultation or treatment. Conclusion A screening tool identifying those most at risk of job loss has been produced.

In the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS), treatment of hypercholesterolemic men with pravastatin, an inhibitor of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A (HMG-CoA) reductase, reduced their likelihood to progress to diabetes mellitus by 30%. However, the mechanism of this effect of pravastatin has not been investigated. In the current study, we examined the effect of pravastatin on the development of diabetes in obese diabetic mice, and on the insulin-induced glucose uptake and adiponectin production. Pravastatin treatment attenuated the development of diabetes in db/db and high fat/high sucrose diet-fed C57BL/6J mice. An in vivo glucose transport assay showed that pravastatin upregulated glucose uptake in adipose tissue. Insulin-stimulated glucose uptake was enhanced in primary adipocytes isolated from pravastatin-treated mice. Pravastatin treatment increased adiponectin production in 3T3-L1 adipocytes. Plasma adiponectin levels were significantly increased in pravastatin-treated mice. Analyses of plasma samples from the WOSCOPS biobank indicated a significant increase of plasma adiponectin levels with pravastatin treatment (placebo -0.28+/-0.34 microg/ml versus pravastatin +1.47+/-0.33 microg/ml, p=0.0003). Taken together, our findings suggest that pravastatin may have beneficial effects on adipose tissue, which may partly explain the reduction of the development of diabetes by pravastatin treatment.

Purpose Standard formulation alpha-blocker use has been associated with an increased risk of hypotension-related adverse events, particularly with cardiovascular indications and on treatment initiation. We investigated the association between those fractures that are commonly due to falls and modified-release doxasozin exposure. Methods A case-control study using UK primary care records (the THIN database) showed that 6540 cases aged 50 years or older had a record of first fracture of the hip/femur, humerus or wrist after May 2001; 26 495 controls had no fracture and were matched on practice, year of birth and sex. Exclusions for the primary analysis were previous benign prostatic hypertrophy (BPH), lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) or prostate cancer, major trauma at the time of the case's fracture, or a history of falls. Conditional logistic regression estimated the association between modified-release doxasozin treatment and the occurrence of fractures. Results No increased risk of fractures was associated with current use of modified-release doxasozin, adjusted odds ratios (ORs) 0.90 (95%CI 0.68, 1.19); previous use, adjusted OR 0.92 (95%CI 0.73, 1.16) or the start of a treatment episode (≤28 days), crude OR 0.57 (0.17, 1.92). Including those with a history of BPH, LUTS and prostatic carcinoma had little effect, adjusted OR for current use was 0.95 (95%CI 0.74, 1.21). No significant increased risk of fractures was associated with the start of standard preparation alpha-blockers, crude OR 1.42 (95%CI 0.65, 3.07). Conclusions We found no association between modified-release doxasozin use and fractured hip/femur, humerus or wrist in those without a recent history of falls, or trauma. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Summary Background Inter-individual differences in biological ageing could affect susceptibility to coronary heart disease. Our aim was to determine whether mean leucocyte telomere length is a predictor of the development of coronary heart disease. Methods We compared telomere lengths at recruitment in 484 individuals in the West of Scotland Primary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS) who went on to develop coronary heart disease events with those from 1058 matched controls who remained event free. We also investigated whether there was any association between telomere length and observed clinical benefit of statin treatment in WOSCOPS. Findings Mean telomere length decreased with age by 9% per decade (95% CI 3·6–14·1; p=0·001) in controls; much the same trend was seen in cases (−5·9% per decade, −3·1 to 14·1; p=0·1902). Individuals in the middle and the lowest tertiles of telomere length were more at risk of developing a coronary heart disease event than were individuals in the highest tertile (odds ratio [OR] for coronary heart disease: 1·51, 95% CI 1·15–1·98; p=0·0029 in the middle tertile; 1·44, 1·10–1·90, p=0·0090 in the lowest). In placebo-treated patients, the risk of coronary heart disease was almost double in those in the lower two tertiles of telomere length compared with those in the highest tertile (1·93, 1·33–2·80, p=0·0005 in the middle tertile; 1·94, 1·33–2·84, p=0·0006 in the lowest). By contrast, in patients treated with pravastatin, the increased risk with shorter telomeres was substantially attenuated (1·12, 0·75–1·69, p=0·5755 in the middle tertile; 1·02, 0·68–1·52, p=0·9380 in the lowest). Interpretation Mean leucocyte telomere length is a predictor of future coronary heart disease events in middle-aged, high-risk men and could identify individuals who would benefit most from statin treatment. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that differences in biological ageing might contribute to the risk—and variability in age of onset—of coronary heart disease.

Dental caries is one of the most common diseases of childhood. The aim of this study was to compare the cost of providing the Scotland-wide nursery toothbrushing programme with associated National Health Service (NHS) cost savings from improvements in the dental health of five-year-old children: through avoided dental extractions, fillings and potential treatments for decay.\ud \ud Methods:\ud \ud Estimated costs of the nursery toothbrushing programme in 2011/12 were requested from all Scottish Health Boards. Unit costs of a filled, extracted and decayed primary tooth were calculated using verifiable sources of information. Total costs associated with dental treatments were estimated for the period from 1999/00 to 2009/10. These costs were based on the unit costs above and using the data of the National Dental Inspection Programme and then extrapolated to the population level. Expected cost savings were calculated for each of the subsequent years in comparison with the 2001/02 dental treatment costs. Population standardised analysis of hypothetical cohorts of 1000 children per deprivation category was performed.\ud \ud Results:\ud \ud The estimated cost of the nursery toothbrushing programme in Scotland was £1,762,621 per year. The estimated cost of dental treatments in the baseline year 2001/02 was £8,766,297, while in 2009/10 it was £4,035,200. In 2002/03 the costs of dental treatments increased by £213,380 (2.4%). In the following years the costs decreased dramatically with the estimated annual savings ranging from £1,217,255 in 2003/04 (13.9% of costs in 2001/02) to £4,731,097 in 2009/10 (54.0%). Population standardised analysis by deprivation groups showed that the largest decrease in modelled costs was for the most deprived cohort of children.\ud \ud Conclusions:\ud \ud The NHS costs associated with the dental treatments for five-year-old children decreased over time. In the eighth year of the toothbrushing programme the expected savings were more than two and a half times the costs of the programme implementation.