Search

Copyright of Revista Foco (Interdisciplinary Studies Journal) is the property of Revista Foco and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Abstract Agricultural activities in many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are subject to various risk factors that the COVID-19 compounds. Earlier studies on the effect of COVID-19 on smallholders neglect the issue of comparison with non-farm households. The study uses micro-level household datasets to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household welfare, with a focus on farm households relative to their non-farm counterparts. We employed a binary probit model and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) approach and demonstrated that farm households witnessed important income reductions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Uganda. The study contributes to the design of evidence-based approaches to reducing farmers’ vulnerabilities to agricultural risks and pandemic-related shocks.

Agricultural activities in many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are subject to various risk factors that the COVID-19 compounds. Earlier studies on the effect of COVID-19 on smallholders neglect the issue of comparison with non-farm households. The study uses micro-level household datasets to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household welfare, with a focus on farm households relative to their non-farm counterparts. We employed a binary probit model and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) approach and demonstrated that farm households witnessed important income reductions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Uganda. The study contributes to the design of evidence-based approaches to reducing farmers' vulnerabilities to agricultural risks and pandemic-related shocks. Article highlights: Farm households witnessed significant income reductions during the COVID-19 period in Uganda. Most common coping strategies adopted by households amid the COVID-19 crisis were reliance on savings, and reducing food consumption. The study offers suggestions in designing evidence-based approaches to reducing farmers' vulnerabilities to agricultural or pandemic-related shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of International Journal of Professional Business Review (JPBReview) is the property of Open Access Publications LLC and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The Ghanaian cocoa sector faces numerous challenges which contributes to lower yields, forcing farmers to depend on traditional coping strategies due to the absence of institutionalized cocoa crop insurance. The effectiveness of these traditional risk-coping strategies remains uncertain. This study aims to identify the influential factors shaping cocoa farmers' decisions to participate in insurance schemes and the premium amounts they can afford. Using multi-stage random sampling, a semi-structured questionnaire was used to illicit responses from 240 cocoa farmers in the Western North region. A binary logistic and a multinomial logistic models were used for data analysis. Age, education, experience, credit access, and off-farm income were identified as statistically significant factors influencing farmers' decisions to participate in the insurance scheme. Moreover, among the 3 price contracts, multinomial results indicate that the majority of farmers (50.4%) favoured a premium/acre of GH¢250 for a minimum price insurance contract of GH¢1300 per annum. The multinomial log-odds determining the amount farmers are willing to pay are influenced by age, education, and off-farm income. Despite the sector's inherent challenges, there should be opportunities for collaboration between government agencies, insurance companies, and agricultural stakeholders aimed at improving insurance accessibility and affordability for cocoa farmers, thereby enhancing the sector's resilience against various risks.

Rice production is inherently risky and volatile, and farmers in Bangladesh face a wide range of risks, including weather, pest and disease attacks, interruptions to input supply, and market-associated risks. Moreover, poor farm households often perceive risks in adopting new technology, even though it could improve productivity and food security. Such households are thus caught in a “risk-induced trap” that precludes them from realizing the benefits of technological innovation. Extension service is one way to help farmers improve risk management skills and escape risk-induced traps, but there is limited empirical analysis of its impact in Bangladesh. The objective of the study is to measure the nexus between agricultural extension services, technology adoption, and production risks as well as women empowerment in agriculture index. IFPRI utilized stratified random sampling to determine the 5603 households in 2018 (which is nationally called the BIHS-2018 dataset) from rural and pre-urban areas of Bangladesh. Out of these 5603 households, 2663 households were specifically selected for the study related to rice farming to achieve the main objective of the study. Focusing on rice farming, a moment-based Poisson regression model is estimated with 2SLS and identifies risks associated with key technologies and potential productivity and risk-reducing effects. The results revealed that wealthier households are more likely to adopt technology for minimizing production risk and women's empowerment which can positively affect productivity by mitigating risk. The result revealed a positive and significant difference in WEAI between the AES participant and non-participant group. We find that engagement in agricultural extension services was associated with technology adoption and production risk reduction. The agricultural extension services increased, technology adoption by 4.2 % and decreased production risk by 2.4 %. Based on the findings, it is concluded that more comprehensive extension services can enhance rice production and ameliorate farmers' risk in rice production to some extent.

Agriculture plays a pivotal role in Africa's development and is essential for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the agricultural sector is inherently exposed to production risks, and many farmers in the developing world lack access to reliable agricultural insurance coverage. This situation arises due to limited data and knowledge about farmers' insurance needs and the high costs associated with insuring against severe agricultural risks. Promoting agricultural insurance as an instrument can have several significant impacts, aligning with multiple SDGs. It can help stabilize farmers' income, thereby contributing to the goal of reducing poverty (SDG 1). Moreover, agricultural insurance can provide a safety net for food producers, helping them manage the impacts of climate-related risks and aligning with SDG 13, which addresses climate action. Additionally, by enhancing the resilience of farmers and ensuring more predictable income, agricultural insurance can contribute to addressing hunger (SDG 2) and ultimately create a more sustainable and prosperous agricultural sector in Africa. Therefore, this study evaluated agricultural insurance as an instrument for sustainable food supply systems in Nigeria. This study adopted a survey design. This study captured thoughts, experiences, and observations of selected agricultural underwriters in the Nigerian insurance industry through structured questionnaire. A descriptive statistic was employed in the data analysis. This study results indicated that aside from farmers’ awareness which showed some level of yardstick with respect to farmers behavioural metrics, all other metrics played no significant roles. It was also recorded that why farmers’ age, gender, family size and farming experience have no significant roles in the uptake of agricultural insurance, all other participatory factors have major effects. The study contributed significantly to knowledge with the graphical representations of the challenges confronting the agricultural insurers in Nigeria. The study provided suitable recommendations that endear achievable SDGs in Nigeria.

Copyright of Revista de Ciências Agrárias is the property of Sociedade de Ciencias Agrarias de Portugal and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista de Ciências Agrárias is the property of Sociedade de Ciencias Agrarias de Portugal and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Food security is of great importance to all countries. Correspondingly, agricultural price insurance is an important tool to maintain food security. This study adopts the traditional spider web model to establish a mathematical framework for exploring the internal mechanism of agricultural price insurance, which can ease the volatility of the agricultural market. Then, the influence of agricultural price insurance on the supply of agricultural products is examined. The findings show that the supply elasticity of most agricultural products is greater than the demand elasticity, with agricultural product markets presenting a natural divergence. Agricultural price insurance changes the supply curve of agricultural products by reducing their supply elasticity, subsequently positively affecting the reduction of price fluctuation and the stabilisation of outputs. Agricultural price insurance can even change agricultural product markets under certain conditions, allowing a shift from divergence to convergence. Moreover, by adjusting the insurance parameters of agricultural prices, the equilibrium yield and price can be changed, and the planting area and income of farmers can be maximised. The mathematical basis for agricultural insurance derived in this study can support food security strategies at the national level and further provide a theoretical basis to formulate policies and departmental measures.

Scientists and policymakers are concerned about the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity and the well-being of farmers around the world. Alterations in the amount of precipitation and temperature have a direct influence on crop yields, although a rise in the prevalence of diseases and pests has a secondary but nevertheless important influence. The degree to which farmers believe climate change poses a threat to their agricultural operations is a decisive factor in determining whether or not they will make adjustments to their practices. This study assesses the impact of climate change on agricultural risks among cotton farmers in rural Zimbabwe. Thirteen (13) cotton farmers and employees of a company that buys and sells cotton were interviewed using a qualitative methodology. The study found that the cotton-growing industry has significantly incurred losses due to both the effects of climate change and the broader economic downturn. Several reasons related to Zimbabwe's economic collapse have contributed to the problem facing the nation's rural cotton farmers.

Agriculture plays a pivotal role in Africa's development and is essential for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the agricultural sector is inherently exposed to production risks, and many farmers in the developing world lack access to reliable agricultural insurance coverage. This situation arises due to limited data and knowledge about farmers' insurance needs and the high costs associated with insuring against severe agricultural risks. Promoting agricultural insurance as an instrument can have several significant impacts, aligning with multiple SDGs. It can help stabilize farmers' income, thereby contributing to the goal of reducing poverty (SDG 1). Moreover, agricultural insurance can provide a safety net for food producers, helping them manage the impacts of climate-related risks and aligning with SDG 13, which addresses climate action. Additionally, by enhancing the resilience of farmers and ensuring more predictable income, agricultural insurance can contribute to addressing hunger (SDG 2) and ultimately create a more sustainable and prosperous agricultural sector in Africa. Therefore, this study evaluated agricultural insurance as an instrument for sustainable food supply systems in Nigeria. This study adopted a survey design. This study captured thoughts, experiences, and observations of selected agricultural underwriters in the Nigerian insurance industry through structured questionnaire. A descriptive statistic was employed in the data analysis. This study results indicated that aside from farmers' awareness which showed some level of yardstick with respect to farmers behavioural metrics, all other metrics played no significant roles. It was also recorded that why farmers' age, gender, family size and farming experience have no significant roles in the uptake of agricultural insurance, all other participatory factors have major effects. The study contributed significantly to knowledge with the graphical representations of the challenges confronting the agricultural insurers in Nigeria. The study provided suitable recommendations that endear achievable SDGs in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of the row planting method on maize productivity and risk exposure using panel datasets from Ethiopia. A flexible moment-based production function is fitted to capture the expected yield, yield variance, and exposure to downside risk. A Mundlak–Chamberlain approach is combined with a switching regression treatment effects model to account for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity. The study shows that adopters of the row planting method significantly reduced exposure to downside risk while increasing expected yield. The analysis also identified some household and environmental conditions that affect the gain from the row planting method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Farmers' inability to successfully participate in the maize value chain due to the threats of some risk factors is one of the key reasons for rising food insecurity. This study analyses farmers' responses to risks involved in maize production in Cameroon. Data on maize production risks were collected from smallholder maize farmers operating in selected communities along the River Sanaga. The Criticality Risk Matrix model was employed to determine the severity of these risks based on their criticality and likelihood of occurrence. After deriving farmers' risk preferences from the categorization of their farm decisions, a Multinomial Logit Regression model was then used to investigate the extent to which risk severity influences farm decisions. Additionally, a Graded Response Model was utilized to predict farmers' risk responses by categorizing their probable patterns of action. The results revealed that production risks with fatal consequences such as pest invasion had a negative significant influence on-farm decisions and their perceived threats were more likely to provoke risk-averse responses. Less fatal risk threats such as fertilizer unavailability, poor farm infrastructure, labour shortage, and health risks were all significant and induced risk-averse responses from farmers. Furthermore, gender, experience and employment status also significantly influence farm decision-making. The farmers’ response patterns presented on the Graded Response Model Characteristic Curves further indicated the willingness of farmers to continue farm activities despite perceived risks and the probability of engaging in diversification as an added measure to mitigate risks. We recommended that more effective measures for information dissemination on production risks as well as sustained Extension Service support to mitigate these risks be made available to farmers.

Copyright of Acta Universitaria is the property of Universidad de Guanajuato/Acta Universitaria and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Assessing the risk to the agricultural system is important for agricultural sustainability. The present study analyses agricultural drought risk with respect to different drought severities. Different drought indices – namely, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Standardized Soil moisture Index (SSI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Temperature Condition Index (TCI) – are used to evaluate the conditional probability. Non-stationary analysis is carried out for SPEI and SSI to incorporate the impact of large-scale oscillations and regional hydrological variability. Copula analysis is performed between drought conditions and various crop yield anomalies over Maharashtra, India, during 1998–2015. The outcomes suggest that SPEI is a significant drought indicator over the maximum number of districts in all the crops. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Indian Summer Monsoon Index (ISMI) are selected as suitable covariates to model the non-stationarity in the SPEI time series. The drought risk is estimated to increase with drought severity for all of the selected crops. It is observed that the exclusion of non-stationarity will underestimate the agricultural risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of climate change are likely to increase the frequency of flood, drought, and salinity events in the coastal areas of Bangladesh, posing many challenges for agrarian communities. Sustainable intensification in the form of improved agricultural management practices and new technologies may help farmers cope with stress and adapt to changing conditions. In this study, we explore how climate change perceptions of agricultural risk affect adaptation to climate change through technology adoption in a unique landscape: the polders of Bangladesh. In 2016, a survey was conducted in 1003 households living on these artificial, leveed islands facing the Bay of Bengal. We analyzed the responses from polder residents to construct a climate risk index which quantifies climate risk perception in this highly vulnerable agrarian landscape. We analyzed how polder demographics influence their perceptions about climatic change using seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). Further, by using three bivariate probit regression models, we estimated how the perception of climate risk drives the differential adoption of new agricultural technologies. Our findings show that farmers perceive polder agriculture as highly vulnerable to four environmental change factors: flooding, drought, salinity, and pest infestation. The SUR model suggests that farmer demographics, community group memberships, and access to different inputs and services strongly influence climatic risk perceptions. Findings also suggest that polder farmers with higher risk perceptions have a higher propensity to adopt both chemical and mechanical adaptation strategies. Cost, however, limits the ability of farmers to adopt improved technologies, suggesting an opportunity for institution-led approaches. • Farmers perceive polder agriculture as highly vulnerable to four environmental change factors. • Polder farmers experience substantial yield losses from climatic events. • Perceptions of climate risk affect the adoption of chemical and mechanical agricultural technologies. • Community group participation increases the likelihood of adopting sustainable intensification practices. • Farmer networks play a strong role in climate change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Family farms are considered the most desirable form of Chinese agriculture. Studies on the risk management of family farms are rare, while the COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to explore how family farms respond to risks. Based on an online survey of 2 324 family crop farms, we examine for the first time the short-term impact (immediate impact or short-term fluctuation, and farms' instantaneous response) and long-term impact (on farms' future or long-term production) of the COVID-19 pandemic on family farms' production and operation in rural China. By using factor analysis and dummy variable regression, we find that the severity of the pandemic, the lockdown of the village, and farmers' knowledge of the pandemic contribute significantly to the short-term impact, but not on the long-term impact. Farmers' characteristics such as gender, age, and education are not related to the short-term impact, but family farms with male owners or owners with high school education or below are more likely to be diversified and large-scale. The number of years the farm has existed for and agricultural insurance affect both short-term and long-term impacts. We suggest that the government needs to pay more attention to stability-enhancing policies, the market environment, vocational training and the agricultural insurance market.

Agricultural climate index-based-insurance (IBI) compensates farmers for losses from adverse climatic conditions. Using a systemic review, we show that research related to agricultural climate index-based-insurance efficacy and application is lacking in many climate and food security vulnerable countries. We concluded that there are countries with high climate and food insecurity risk based on several climate and food security indicators that lack agricultural climate index-based-insurance research that could help farmers in these countries. Research to date has also largely focused on cereal crops and drought, which only represent a fraction of the crops and climate risks that agricultural climate index-based-insurance could be beneficial in managing. Our paper provides evidence-based recommendations for countries that should be focused on to redress the current disparities in agricultural climate index-based-insurance research.

Weather index-based insurance schemes are gaining attention as instruments for agricultural risk management. A key difference between these insurance schemes and more traditional ones is that the former can cope more effectively with adverse selection and moral hazard issues, yielding less expensive insurance contracts. In this article, we argue that index-based crop insurance schemes can be particularly promising in Bolivia and discuss the essential technical requirements and methodological steps for igniting supply of these policies. Using daily rainfall data between 1967 and 2017, pilot insurance schemes for wheat and potato crops are developed for Anzaldo, one of Bolivia's poorest agricultural-dependent rural municipalities. These policies are compared with the country's current public fully subsidized crop-insurance program, which builds on traditional schemes. We prove that index-based schemes that offer variable reimbursing according to climate-induced crop damage allow to manage similar climate risks with significantly lower policy prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of climatic and non-climatic risks are on the rise in the major maize-growing counties of western Kenya. We conducted a questionnaire survey of sampled maize farmers in Nandi, West Pokot, Uasin Gishu and Trans Nzoia counties, achieving 210 responses. We used a stepwise regression model to evaluate the factors influencing farmers' perceptions of farming risks. Results show that most of the sampled farmers were aware of the risks, and perceived reduced rainfall with erratic patterns to be the major climatic risk in crop production. The non-climatic factors were identified as inadequate farm size, limited extension services, land degradation and low soil fertility. The determinant factors that influence farmers' perception of climatic and non-climatic risks affecting crop production were age, farm size, income, crop production cost, marital status, the highest level of education and farming experience. Understanding the risks faced in crop production and determinants of farmers' perceptions can be important in the development and dissemination of sustainable agronomic strategies tailored towards improving crop production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the arguments supporting and questioning the feasibility of introducing a mandatory form of Russian crop insurance with state support funds. Substantiate the author’s position on the establishment of a reserve fund for backup recovery widespread catastrophic damage in particularly adverse weather conditions for years, leading to a complete loss of acreage and yield.

Rainstorms are one of the frequent natural disasters which have significant impact on agricultural production and people’s lives. Considering the comprehensive influence of various factors on the rainstorm events, this study extracts four elements of rainstorms in the Liaoning Province based on meteorological data collected between 1957 and 2015. Combined four elements of rainstorms by copula function, the cumulative probability of the rainstorm events and the probability of their return period can be analysed. The results show that the joint return period of multiple factors combination is less than the return period of a single factor. The degree of accuracy of the joint return period is higher, which is consistent with the actual situation. During periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years, the occurrence probability varies according to the idea ‘the central region is higher, while the eastern and western regions are lower’. Special attention must be paid to the low values of the region in future rainstorm disaster prevention and mitigation work. Based on return periods, the agricultural risk grade can be divided into 5 levels. In ascending order, they are level I (Fuxin, Shenyang, Tieling), II (Dalian, Jinzhou, Panjin, Liaoyang), III (Huludao, Fushun), IV (Chaoyang, Yingkou, Anshan, Benxi), and V (Dandong).

Agriculture is a unique sector because of its dependence on the climate and biological variables. Therefore, in agriculture it is vital to identify and evaluate risks to be sure that decisions made on the farm will bring positive results. Torbat-e-Heydarieh is the most important center in saffron cultivation and production in Khorasan Razavi province and Iran. This city is famous for its Saffron lands. It has the first rank in the world for producing Saffron . So, in this paper, we employed risk profile analysis to saffron risk management. By using previous literatures, all of the risks of agricultural sector are identified and classified in nine categories. The information was collected from the university elite and Saffron union members. To design the risk profile, we used data from 67 saffron producers of Torbat Heydariyeh in 1395. For evaluating of losses related to each risk component, two indexes of frequency and severity of risk were calculated and based on that risk matrix were created. Results showed that the greatest area of risk is included all of the risk of pests, diseases and weeds (Different types of weeds, Micro pests (Fungi and bacteria), Macro pests( Mice, ant, insect, Grazing livestock)), economic risk (Brokers, market fluctuations, lack of liquidity of farmers), Climate risk (drought, frost and freeze) and damage risk (Reduce yield due to farm life).

Abstract Weather index-based crop insurance is increasingly becoming important as a risk mitigation strategy that farmers may use to mitigate adverse climate shocks and natural disasters encountered during farming. While Europe, North America, and Asia account for 20.1%, 55%, and 19.5% of the total agricultural insurance premium worldwide, respectively, Africa accounts for only 0.5% of the world insurance industry. One of the key reasons advanced against the low index insurance participation rate in Africa is the failure to involve farm households at the initial conceptualization and design of pilot initiatives. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to design an improved participatory methodology that could help elicit information on the value placed by farm households in Southwestern Burkina Faso on a new weather index-based crop insurance management initiative. A key concept in the improved participatory methodology is that of the willingness to pay (WTP) of farm households for the scheme. Knowledge of the maximum amount that farmers are willing to pay for the scheme can help insurance policy providers and public policy makers to design and put in place measures that sustain index insurance schemes in a developing country context and improve welfare among participating farmers.

Securitization is an emerging alternative to transfer of insurance risk, especially in cases exceeding the capacity of reinsurance, thus extending the insurability of risks. The original subjects of securitization are the risks emerging from the aftermaths of natural disasters. The range of securitized risks has broaden rapidly over the past decade. The reason of securitization's feasibility in transfer of agricultural risks is the spatial correlation of harvests among the producers that can result in fatal loss suffered simultaneously by many producers and subsequent producer's insolvency to settle the insurance claims. The paper proposes the reduction of the insurer's risk exposure by its transfer to capital markets via catastrophe bonds. A catastrophic event is defined through the relative loss of the current national per hectare yield of the particular crop to the average yield from previous years. The number of years included in the average is subject to the minimization of the relative loss' fluctuation over the given period. The triggering probability of the catastrophe bond is calculated from the kernel estimation of the loss distribution, with the relative loss being the loss index. The general case is upgraded by the factor of soil quality. The insurer is proposed to offer the coverage according to the producers' soil. The soil classes are securitized separately, with the set of catastrophe bonds. Both cases are illustrated by the numerical example on the data set of wheat produced in the Slovak Republic over last 45 years. The outcome of the examples are the graphs of expected payoffs depending on various parameters.

The article discusses Australia an agricultural nation diverse climates which translates into significant sources of risk for agricultural production and subsequent farm revenues contributing to an increase in the vulnerability of crops. Topics include crop insurance products, including classical claim-based and index-based insurance, that allow exposed individuals to pool resources to spread risk; and the impact of multiple synoptic-scale climate mode indices on crop yield.

We consider a political economy in which government cares about risk-averse farmers' loss of income but incurs political cost if it provides monetary support to farmers. Farmers' expectations of government disaster aid and overconfidence (optimism bias) regarding their risk prevent farmers from purchasing full insurance under actuarially fair rates. Considering this conclusion, government prefers to subsidize farmers' purchases of insurance ex ante rather than solely relying on disaster aid ex post. The resulting subsidy rate depends on the political environment, the degree of systemic risk, the distribution of farmers' risk preferences, and the nature and distribution of farmers' risk perceptions.

Rainstorms are one of the frequent natural disasters which have significant impact on agricultural production and people's lives. Considering the comprehensive influence of various factors on the rainstorm events, this study extracts four elements of rainstorms in the Liaoning Province based on meteorological data collected between 1957 and 2015. Combined four elements of rainstorms by copula function, the cumulative probability of the rainstorm events and the probability of their return period can be analysed. The results show that the joint return period of multiple factors combination is less than the return period of a single factor. The degree of accuracy of the joint return period is higher, which is consistent with the actual situation. During periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years, the occurrence probability varies according to the idea 'the central region is higher, while the eastern and western regions are lower'. Special attention must be paid to the low values of the region in future rainstorm disaster prevention and mitigation work. Based on return periods, the agricultural risk grade can be divided into 5 levels. In ascending order, they are level I (Fuxin, Shenyang, Tieling), II (Dalian, Jinzhou, Panjin, Liaoyang), III (Huludao, Fushun), IV (Chaoyang, Yingkou, Anshan, Benxi), and V (Dandong). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study proposes a probabilistic model of the individual crop insurance purchase decision that explicitly recognizes that neither the producer nor the insurer knows the exact value of the actuarially fair premium (AFP) underlying the desired policy. The model is used to explore the impact of key features of the insurer and producer AFP estimates on the probability that the producer will purchase insurance and other important indicators of program performance. The model is applied to assessing the merits of alternative premium estimation methods and to shed light on some major factors affecting the performance of the U.S. crop insurance program.

Agriculture is a unique sector because of its dependence on climate and biological variables. Therefore, it is vital to identify and evaluate risks to be sure that decisions made on the farm will bring positive results in agriculture. Torbat Heydarieh is the most important center in saffron cultivation and production in the Khorasan Razavi province and Iran. This city is famous for its Saffron lands. It has the first rank in the world for producing Saffron. So, in this paper, we employed risk profile analysis to saffron risk management. By using previous literature, all of the risks of agricultural sector were identified and classified in nine categories. The information was collected from the university experts and Saffron union members. To design the risk profile, we used data from 67 saffron producers of Torbat Heydariyeh in 2016. To evaluate losses related to each risk component, two indices of frequency and severity of risk were calculated and based on that the risk matrix was created. The results showed that the greatest area of risk includes all of the risk of pests, diseases and weeds (Different types of weeds, Micro pests (Fungi and bacteria), Macro pests (Mice, ant, insect, grazing livestock)), economic risk (Brokers, market fluctuations, lack of liquidity of farmers), climate risk (drought, frost and freeze) and damage risk (Reduce yield due to farm life). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detecting dispersal pathways is important both for understanding species range expansion and for managing nuisance species. However, direct detection is difficult. Here, we propose detecting these crucial pathways using a virtual ecology approach, simulating species dynamics using models, and virtual observations. As a case study, we developed a dispersal model based on cellular automata for the pest insect Stenotus rubrovittatus and simulated its expansion. We tested models for species expansion based on four landscape parameters as candidate pathways; these are river density, road density, area of paddy fields, and area of abandoned farmland, and validated their accuracy. We found that both road density and abandoned area models had prediction accuracy. The simulation requires simple data only to have predictive power, allowing for fast modeling and swift establishment of management plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating agricultural loss due to flooding is essential for defining an appropriate risk level in flood management projects. This research introduces a method for computing annual damage risk for rice fields with respect to both spatial and temporal pattern of floods, while considering the effect of crop growth stages on the total damage. For finding the spatial pattern of floods, HEC-RAS was employed to derive selected physical parameters of floods of interest and then a physical loss function was used to calculate the unconditional loss over flood prone areas. A time-dependent loss function was introduced for rice to determine the effect of growth on damages derived through the physical loss function. Due to the seasonal nature of agricultural risk, frequency analysis was performed for seasonal discharges for each growth stage of rice. A method was introduced to use the concept of Expected Annual Damage in agricultural fields. A method called “AGEAD” was introduced for evaluating short-term risk for agricultural activities considering their inherent spatial and temporal characteristics. Results showed that damages evaluated by employing AGEAD were completely different from what was obtained by applying a flood of defined return period, i.e. from the results of long-term risk evaluation. While it is common to attribute a unique predicted loss to all flood prone areas, AGEAD application showed that different zones in flooded paddy fields were subjected to different amount of damages from 100 to 0%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will modify the production and distribution of plant species, which is why implementing adaptation plans to minimize its effects, as well as to reduce impacts on food security, should be considered. This study assessed the variation of maize (Zea mayz L.) yields under rainfed conditions under climate change scenarios, for the springsummer cycle in the period of 2011 to 2030, in the Rural Development District of La Antigua, Veracruz, Mexico. The possible variations in maize production concerning current climate conditions were analyzed in areas with favorable conditions for the development of this crop. The logical-spatial coherence and homogeneity were verified with daily records of precipitation and temperature from 40 climatological stations of the National Meteorological Service. Missing data were estimated with ClimGen, climate series were generated with Lars WG, crop yields were evaluated for scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 using a water balance simulation model (SICTOD), and the potentially vulnerable zones were defined through spatial interpolation of yields. Maize yields in the RDD La Antigua for each climate change scenario were different from the present ones (p=0.666); in the spatial scope, they could affect 7% of the surface with conditions for maize production under scenario B1. Under the scenarios A1B and A2, 94% of the surfaces with conditions for maize production would be affected. Yields can be maintained, but they could come to vary in space. The information can be used to develop projects of climate change adaptation, with the participation of agricultural producers, climate change managers, or others, with actions like crop substitution and new varieties, and to reprogram agricultural tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Index insurance appeared recently in developing countries with the expectation to improve agricultural output and living standards in general. We investigate how experiencing extreme weather events affects farmers' decision to purchase index insurance in India. Extreme weather events are identified from historical precipitation data and matched with a randomised household panel. Excessive rainfall in previous years during the harvest increases the insurance demand, while lack of rainfall in the planting and growing periods has no effect. The latter can be explained by access to irrigation, underscoring the importance of the local context when developing insurance products to accommodate environmental risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]