Analysis of spatial and temporal risk of agricultural loss due to flooding in paddy farms.

Evaluating agricultural loss due to flooding is essential for defining an appropriate risk level in flood management projects. This research introduces a method for computing annual damage risk for rice fields with respect to both spatial and temporal pattern of floods, while considering the effect of crop growth stages on the total damage. For finding the spatial pattern of floods, HEC-RAS was employed to derive selected physical parameters of floods of interest and then a physical loss function was used to calculate the unconditional loss over flood prone areas. A time-dependent loss function was introduced for rice to determine the effect of growth on damages derived through the physical loss function. Due to the seasonal nature of agricultural risk, frequency analysis was performed for seasonal discharges for each growth stage of rice. A method was introduced to use the concept of Expected Annual Damage in agricultural fields. A method called “AGEAD” was introduced for evaluating short-term risk for agricultural activities considering their inherent spatial and temporal characteristics. Results showed that damages evaluated by employing AGEAD were completely different from what was obtained by applying a flood of defined return period, i.e. from the results of long-term risk evaluation. While it is common to attribute a unique predicted loss to all flood prone areas, AGEAD application showed that different zones in flooded paddy fields were subjected to different amount of damages from 100 to 0%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]