Search

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis continues to rely on sputum smear microscopy in many settings. We conducted a meta-analysis to estimate the percentage of children and adults with tuberculosis that are sputum smear positive. Methods: We searched PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, and Global Health databases for studies that included both children and adults with all forms of active TB. The pooled percentages of children and adults with smear positive TB were estimated using the inverse variance heterogeneity model. This review was registered in the PROSPERO database under registration number CRD42015015331. Results: We identified 20 studies meeting our inclusion criteria that reported smear positivity for a total of 18,316 children and 162,574 adults from 14 countries. The pooled percentage of paediatric TB cases that were sputum smear positive was 6.8 % (95 % Confidence Interval (CI) 2.2–12.2 %), compared with 52.0 % (95 % CI 40.0–64.0 %) among adult cases. Eight studies reported data separately for children aged 0–4 and 5–14. The percentage of children aged 0–4 that were smear positive was 0.5 % (95 % CI 0.0–1.9 %), compared with 14.0 % (95 % CI 8.9–19.4 %) among children aged 5–14. Conclusions: Children, especially those aged 0–4, are much less likely to be sputum smear positive than adults. National TB programs relying on sputum smear for diagnosis are at risk of under-diagnosing and underestimating the burden of TB in children. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1617-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

We describe sequence tag-based analysis of microbial populations (STAMP) for characterization of pathogen population dynamics during infection. STAMP analyzes the frequency changes of genetically 'barcoded' organisms to quantify population bottlenecks and infer the founding population size. Analyses of intraintestinal Vibrio cholerae revealed infection-stage and region-specific host barriers to infection and showed unexpected V. cholerae migration counter to intestinal flow. STAMP provides a robust, widely applicable analytical framework for high-confidence characterization of in vivo microbial dissemination.

The rise of resistance together with the shortage of new broad-spectrum antibiotics underlines the urgency of optimizing the use of available drugs to minimize disease burden. Theoretical studies suggest that coordinating empirical usage of antibiotics in a hospital ward can contain the spread of resistance. However, theoretical and clinical studies came to different conclusions regarding the usefulness of rotating first-line therapy (cycling). Here, we performed a quantitative pathogen-specific meta-analysis of clinical studies comparing cycling to standard practice. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar and identified 46 clinical studies addressing the effect of cycling on nosocomial infections, of which 11 met our selection criteria. We employed a method for multivariate meta-analysis using incidence rates as endpoints and find that cycling reduced the incidence rate/1000 patient days of both total infections by 4.95 [9.43–0.48] and resistant infections by 7.2 [14.00–0.44]. This positive effect was observed in most pathogens despite a large variance between individual species. Our findings remain robust in uni- and multivariate metaregressions. We used theoretical models that reflect various infections and hospital settings to compare cycling to random assignment to different drugs (mixing). We make the realistic assumption that therapy is changed when first line treatment is ineffective, which we call “adjustable cycling/mixing”. In concordance with earlier theoretical studies, we find that in strict regimens, cycling is detrimental. However, in adjustable regimens single resistance is suppressed and cycling is successful in most settings. Both a meta-regression and our theoretical model indicate that “adjustable cycling” is especially useful to suppress emergence of multiple resistance. While our model predicts that cycling periods of one month perform well, we expect that too long cycling periods are detrimental. Our results suggest that “adjustable cycling” suppresses multiple resistance and warrants further investigations that allow comparing various diseases and hospital settings.

Many bacteria mediate important life-style decisions by varying levels of the second messenger c-di-GMP. Behavioral transitions result from the coordination of complex cellular processes such as motility, surface adherence or the production of virulence factors and toxins. While the regulatory mechanisms responsible for these processes have been elucidated in some cases, the global pleiotropic effects of c-di-GMP are poorly understood, primarily because c-di-GMP networks are inherently complex in most bacteria. Moreover, the quantitative relationships between cellular c-di-GMP levels and c-di-GMP dependent phenotypes are largely unknown. Here, we dissect the c-di-GMP network of Caulobacter crescentus to establish a global and quantitative view of c-di-GMP dependent processes in this organism. A genetic approach that gradually reduced the number of diguanylate cyclases identified novel c-di-GMP dependent cellular processes and unraveled c-di-GMP as an essential component of C. crescentus cell polarity and its bimodal life cycle. By varying cellular c-di-GMP concentrations, we determined dose response curves for individual c-di-GMP-dependent processes. Relating these values to c-di-GMP levels modeled for single cells progressing through the cell cycle sets a quantitative frame for the successive activation of c-di-GMP dependent processes during the C. crescentus life cycle. By reconstructing a simplified c-di-GMP network in a strain devoid of c-di-GMP we defined the minimal requirements for the oscillation of c-di-GMP levels during the C. crescentus cell cycle. Finally, we show that although all c-di-GMP dependent cellular processes were qualitatively restored by artificially adjusting c-di-GMP levels with a heterologous diguanylate cyclase, much higher levels of the second messenger are required under these conditions as compared to the contribution of homologous c-di-GMP metabolizing enzymes. These experiments suggest that a common c-di-GMP pool cannot fully explain spatiotemporal regulation by c-di-GMP in C. crescentus and that individual enzymes preferentially regulate specific phenotypes during the cell cycle.

Background: Antibiotic treatments are often associated with a late slowdown in bacterial killing. This separates the killing of bacteria into at least two distinct phases: a quick phase followed by a slower phase, the latter of which is linked to treatment success. Current mechanistic explanations for the in vitro slowdown are either antibiotic persistence or heteroresistance. Persistence is defined as the switching back and forth between susceptible and non-susceptible states, while heteroresistance is defined as the coexistence of bacteria with heterogeneous susceptibilities. Both are also thought to cause a slowdown in the decline of bacterial populations in patients and therefore complicate and prolong antibiotic treatments. Reduced bacterial death rates over time are also observed within tuberculosis patients, yet the mechanistic reasons for this are unknown and therefore the strategies to mitigate them are also unknown., Methods and Findings: We analyse a dose ranging trial for rifampicin in tuberculosis patients and show that there is a slowdown in the decline of bacteria. We show that the late phase of bacterial killing depends more on the peak drug concentrations than the total drug exposure. We compare these to pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models of rifampicin heteroresistance and persistence. We find that the observation on the slow phase's dependence on pharmacokinetic measures, specifically peak concentrations are only compatible with models of heteroresistance and incompatible with models of persistence. The quantitative agreement between heteroresistance models and observations is very good ([Formula: see text]). To corroborate the importance of the slowdown, we validate our results by estimating the time to sputum culture conversion and compare the results to a different dose ranging trial., Conclusions: Our findings indicate that higher doses, specifically higher peak concentrations may be used to optimize rifampicin treatments by accelerating bacterial killing in the slow phase. It adds to the growing body of literature supporting higher rifampicin doses for shortening tuberculosis treatments., Competing Interests: AM is currently an employee of AstraZeneca. However, the work was carried out before he was an employee of AstraZeneca. Therefore, no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Martinecz et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Antibiotic-resistant pathogens are a major public health threat. A deeper understanding of how an antibiotic's mechanism of action influences the emergence of resistance would aid in the design of new drugs and help to preserve the effectiveness of existing ones. To this end, we developed a model that links bacterial population dynamics with antibiotic-target binding kinetics. Our approach allows us to derive mechanistic insights on drug activity from population-scale experimental data and to quantify the interplay between drug mechanism and resistance selection. We find that both bacteriostatic and bactericidal agents can be equally effective at suppressing the selection of resistant mutants, but that key determinants of resistance selection are the relationships between the number of drug-inactivated targets within a cell and the rates of cellular growth and death. We also show that heterogeneous drug-target binding within a population enables resistant bacteria to evolve fitness-improving secondary mutations even when drug doses remain above the resistant strain's minimum inhibitory concentration. Our work suggests that antibiotic doses beyond this "secondary mutation selection window" could safeguard against the emergence of high-fitness resistant strains during treatment., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2022 The Author(s).)

Mechanistic pharmacodynamic models that incorporate the binding kinetics of drug-target interactions have several advantages in understanding target engagement and the efficacy of a drug dose. However, guidelines on how to build and interpret mechanistic pharmacodynamic drug-target binding models considering both biological and computational factors are still missing in the literature. In this chapter, current approaches of building mechanistic PD models and their advantages are discussed. We also present a methodology on how to select a suitable model considering both biological and computational perspectives, as well as summarize the challenges of current mechanistic PD models., (© 2022. Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)

During infection, the rates of pathogen replication, death, and migration affect disease progression, dissemination, transmission, and resistance evolution. Here, we follow the population dynamics of Vibrio cholerae in a mouse model by labeling individual bacteria with one of >500 unique, fitness-neutral genomic tags. Using the changes in tag frequencies and CFU numbers, we inform a mathematical model that describes the within-host spatiotemporal bacterial dynamics. This allows us to disentangle growth, death, forward, and retrograde migration rates continuously during infection. Our model has robust predictive power across various experimental setups. The population dynamics of V. cholerae shows substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in replication, death, and migration. Importantly, we find that the niche available to V. cholerae in the host increases with inoculum size, suggesting cooperative effects during infection. Therefore, it is not enough to consider just the likelihood of exposure (50% infectious dose) but rather the magnitude of exposure to predict outbreaks. IMPORTANCE Determining the rates of bacterial migration, replication, and death during infection is important for understanding how infections progress. Separately measuring these rates is often difficult in systems where multiple processes happen simultaneously. Here, we use next-generation sequencing to measure V. cholerae migration, replication, death, and niche size along the mouse gastrointestinal tract. We show that the small intestine of the mouse is a heterogeneous environment, and the population dynamic characteristics change substantially between adjacent gut sections. Our approach also allows us to characterize the effect of inoculum size on these processes. We find that the niche size in mice increases with the infectious dose, hinting at cooperative effects in larger inocula. The dose-response relationship between inoculum size and final pathogen burden is important for the infected individual and is thought to influence the progression of V. cholerae epidemics.

The antiviral remdesivir has been approved by regulatory bodies such as the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the US Food and Drug administration (FDA) for the treatment of COVID-19. However, its efficacy is debated and toxicity concerns might limit the therapeutic range of this drug. Computational models that aid in balancing efficacy and toxicity would be of great help. Parametrizing models is difficult because the prodrug remdesivir is metabolized to its active form (RDV-TP) upon cell entry, which complicates dose-activity relationships. Here, we employ a computational model that allows drug efficacy predictions based on the binding affinity of RDV-TP for its target polymerase in SARS-CoV-2. We identify an optimal infusion rate to maximize remdesivir efficacy. We also assess drug efficacy in suppressing both wild-type and resistant strains, and thereby describe a drug regimen that may select for resistance. Our results differ from predictions using prodrug dose-response curves (pseudo-EC50s). We expect that reaching 90% inhibition (EC90) is insufficient to suppress SARS-CoV-2 in the lungs. While standard dosing mildly inhibits viral polymerase and therefore likely reduces morbidity, we also expect selection for resistant mutants for most realistic parameter ranges. To increase efficacy and safeguard against resistance, we recommend more clinical trials with dosing regimens that substantially increase the levels of RDV-TP and/or pair remdesivir with companion antivirals.

Standardised management of tuberculosis may soon be replaced by individualised, precision medicine-guided therapies informed with knowledge provided by the field of systems biology. Systems biology is a rapidly expanding field of computational and mathematical analysis and modelling of complex biological systems that can provide insights into mechanisms underlying tuberculosis, identify novel biomarkers, and help to optimise prevention, diagnosis and treatment of disease. These advances are critically important in the context of the evolving epidemic of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Here, we review the available evidence on the role of systems biology approaches - human and mycobacterial genomics and transcriptomics, proteomics, lipidomics/metabolomics, immunophenotyping, systems pharmacology and gut microbiomes - in the management of tuberculosis including prediction of risk for disease progression, severity of mycobacterial virulence and drug resistance, adverse events, comorbidities, response to therapy and treatment outcomes. Application of the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach demonstrated that at present most of the studies provide "very low" certainty of evidence for answering clinically relevant questions. Further studies in large prospective cohorts of patients, including randomised clinical trials, are necessary to assess the applicability of the findings in tuberculosis prevention and more efficient clinical management of patients., Competing Interests: Conflict of Interest: I. Kontsevaya has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: C. Lange reports personal fees from Chiesi, Gilead, Janssen, Lucane, Novartis, Oxoid, Berlin Chemie, Thermofisher and Oxfordimmunotec, outside the submitted work. Conflict of interest: P. Comella-del-Barrio has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: C. Coarfa has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: A.R. DiNardo has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: S.H. Gillespie reports non-financial support from LifeArc, during the conduct of the study; and other support from ODx Innovations, outside the submitted work. Conflict of interest: M. Hauptmann has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: C. Leschczyk has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: A.M. Mandalakas has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: A. Martinecz has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: M. Merker has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: S. Niemann reports grants from German Center for Infection Research, Excellenz Cluster Precision Medicine in Chronic Inflammation EXC 2167, and Leibniz Science Campus Evolutionary Medicine of the LUNG (EvoLUNG), during the conduct of the study. Conflict of interest: M. Reimann has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: O. Rzhepishevska has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: U.E. Schaible has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: K.M. Scheu has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: E. Schurr has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: P. Abel zur Wiesch has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: J. Heyckendorf has nothing to disclose., (Copyright ©The authors 2021.)

Beta-lactam- and in particular carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae represent a major public health threat. Despite strong variation of resistance across geographical settings, there is limited understanding of the underlying drivers. To assess these drivers, we developed a transmission model of cephalosporin- and carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae. The model is parameterized using antibiotic consumption and demographic data from eleven European countries and fitted to the resistance rates for Klebsiella pneumoniae for these settings. The impact of potential drivers of resistance is then assessed in counterfactual analyses. Based on reported consumption data, the model could simultaneously fit the prevalence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing and carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (ESBL and CRK) across eleven European countries over eleven years. The fit could explain the large between-country variability of resistance in terms of consumption patterns and fitted differences in hospital transmission rates. Based on this fit, a counterfactual analysis found that reducing nosocomial transmission and antibiotic consumption in the hospital had the strongest impact on ESBL and CRK prevalence. Antibiotic consumption in the community also affected ESBL prevalence but its relative impact was weaker than inpatient consumption. Finally, we used the model to estimate a moderate fitness cost of CRK and ESBL at the population level. This work highlights the disproportionate role of antibiotic consumption in the hospital and of nosocomial transmission for resistance in gram-negative bacteria at a European level. This indicates that infection control and antibiotic stewardship measures should play a major role in limiting resistance even at the national or regional level., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Microbial division rates determine the speed of mutation accumulation and thus the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. Microbial death rates are affected by antibiotic action and the immune system. Therefore, measuring these rates has advanced our understanding of host-pathogen interactions and antibiotic action. Several methods based on marker-loss or few inheritable neutral markers exist that allow estimating microbial division and death rates, each of which has advantages and limitations. Technical bottlenecks, i.e., experimental sampling events, during the experiment can distort the rate estimates and are typically unaccounted for or require additional calibration experiments. In this work, we introduce RESTAMP (Rate Estimates by Sequence Tag Analysis of Microbial Populations) as a method for determining bacterial division and death rates. This method uses hundreds of fitness neutral sequence barcodes to measure the rates and account for experimental bottlenecks at the same time. We experimentally validate RESTAMP and compare it to established plasmid loss methods. We find that RESTAMP has a number of advantages over plasmid loss or previous marker based techniques. (i) It enables to correct the distortion of rate estimates by technical bottlenecks. (ii) Rate estimates are independent of the sequence tag distribution in the starting culture allowing the use of an arbitrary number of tags. (iii) It introduces a bottleneck sensitivity measure that can be used to maximize the accuracy of the experiment. RESTAMP allows studying microbial population dynamics with great resolution over a wide dynamic range and can thus advance our understanding of host-pathogen interactions or the mechanisms of antibiotic action., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2021 The Authors.)

Adherence to treatment for tuberculosis (TB) has been a concern for many decades, resulting in the World Health Organization's recommendation of the direct observation of treatment in the 1990s. Recent advances in digital adherence technologies (DATs) have renewed discussion on how to best address nonadherence, as well as offering important information on dose-by-dose adherence patterns and their variability between countries and settings. Previous studies have largely focussed on percentage thresholds to delineate sufficient adherence, but this is misleading and limited, given the complex and dynamic nature of adherence over the treatment course. Instead, we apply a standardised taxonomy - as adopted by the international adherence community - to dose-by-dose medication-taking data, which divides missed doses into 1) late/noninitiation (starting treatment later than expected/not starting), 2) discontinuation (ending treatment early), and 3) suboptimal implementation (intermittent missed doses). Using this taxonomy, we can consider the implications of different forms of nonadherence for intervention and regimen design. For example, can treatment regimens be adapted to increase the "forgiveness" of common patterns of suboptimal implementation to protect against treatment failure and the development of drug resistance? Is it reasonable to treat all missed doses of treatment as equally problematic and equally common when deploying DATs? Can DAT data be used to indicate the patients that need enhanced levels of support during their treatment course? Critically, we pinpoint key areas where knowledge regarding treatment adherence is sparse and impeding scientific progress., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: H.R. Stagg reports that she is the Chief Investigator on, and supported by, Medical Research Council MR/R008345/1; and a co-applicant on NIHR grant 16/88/06 (the IMPACT study), which contains a small salary contribution. She also reports travel and subsistence support from events organised by the Korean CDC and the Latvian Society Against Tuberculosis, some of the sponsorship for which was obtained from Otsuka and Johnson and Johnson. Conflict of interest: M. Flook reports grants from the Medical Research Council, UK, during the conduct of the study. Conflict of interest: A. Martinecz has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: K. Kielmann has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: P. Abel zur Wiesch has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: A.S. Karat reports grants awarded to the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) from the World Health Organization and the Medical Research Council, UK; grants awarded to University College London (subcontract to Queen Mary University) from the National Institute of Health Research, UK; grants awarded to the LSHTM from the Economic and Social Research Council, UK, and The Bloomsbury SET (Research England); grants awarded to Imperial College London from The Colt Foundation, UK; grants awarded to the LSHTM from Viiv Healthcare, USA; consultancy fees from The Aurum Institute, South Africa, Edanz Group, Japan, and Pastest, UK; an external marker fee from The University of Cape Town, South Africa; travel and subsistence support from Kyoto University, Japan, Vital Strategies, Singapore, and Bloomberg Philanthropies, USA; and costs of open access publishing from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, USA, all outside the submitted work. Conflict of interest: M.C.I. Lipman reports grants from National Institute for Health Research, UK, during the conduct of the study. Conflict of interest: D.J. Sloan has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: E.F. Walker has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: K.L. Fielding has nothing to disclose., (Copyright ©ERS 2020.)

Antibiotic resistance is rising and we urgently need to gain a better quantitative understanding of how antibiotics act, which in turn would also speed up the development of new antibiotics. Here, we describe a computational model (COMBAT-COmputational Model of Bacterial Antibiotic Target-binding) that can quantitatively predict antibiotic dose-response relationships. Our goal is dual: We address a fundamental biological question and investigate how drug-target binding shapes antibiotic action. We also create a tool that can predict antibiotic efficacy a priori. COMBAT requires measurable biochemical parameters of drug-target interaction and can be directly fitted to time-kill curves. As a proof-of-concept, we first investigate the utility of COMBAT with antibiotics belonging to the widely used quinolone class. COMBAT can predict antibiotic efficacy in clinical isolates for quinolones from drug affinity (R2>0.9). To further challenge our approach, we also do the reverse: estimate the magnitude of changes in drug-target binding based on antibiotic dose-response curves. We overexpress target molecules to infer changes in antibiotic-target binding from changes in antimicrobial efficacy of ciprofloxacin with 92-94% accuracy. To test the generality of our approach, we use the beta-lactam ampicillin to predict target molecule occupancy at MIC from antimicrobial action with 90% accuracy. Finally, we apply COMBAT to predict antibiotic concentrations that can select for resistance due to novel resistance mutations. Using ciprofloxacin and ampicillin as well defined test cases, our work demonstrates that drug-target binding is a major predictor of bacterial responses to antibiotics. This is surprising because antibiotic action involves many additional effects downstream of drug-target binding. In addition, COMBAT provides a framework to inform optimal antibiotic dose levels that maximize efficacy and minimize the rise of resistant mutants., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Transposon insertion sequencing methods such as Tn-seq revolutionized microbiology by allowing the identification of genomic loci that are critical for viability in a specific environment on a genome-wide scale. While powerful, transposon insertion sequencing suffers from limited reproducibility when different analysis methods are compared. From the perspective of population biology, this may be explained by changes in mutant frequency due to chance (drift) rather than differential fitness (selection). Here, we develop a mathematical model of the population biology of transposon insertion sequencing experiments, i.e. the changes in size and composition of the transposon-mutagenized population during the experiment. We use this model to investigate mutagenesis, the growth of the mutant library, and its passage through bottlenecks. Specifically, we study how these processes can lead to extinction of individual mutants depending on their fitness and the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of the entire mutant population. We find that in typical in vitro experiments few mutants with high fitness go extinct. However, bottlenecks of a size that is common in animal infection models lead to so much random extinction that a large number of viable mutants would be misclassified. While mutants with low fitness are more likely to be lost during the experiment, mutants with intermediate fitness are expected to be much more abundant and can constitute a large proportion of detected hits, i.e. false positives. Thus, incorporating the DFEs of randomly generated mutations in the analysis may improve the reproducibility of transposon insertion experiments, especially when strong bottlenecks are encountered., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2020 The Authors.)

To understand how antibiotic use affects the risk of a resistant infection, we present a computational model of the population dynamics of gut microbiota including antibiotic resistance-conferring plasmids. We then describe how this model is parameterized based on published microbiota data. Finally, we investigate how treatment history affects the prevalence of resistance among opportunistic enterobacterial pathogens. We simulate treatment histories and identify which properties of prior antibiotic exposure are most influential in determining the prevalence of resistance. We find that resistance prevalence can be predicted by 3 properties, namely the total days of drug exposure, the duration of the drug-free period after last treatment, and the center of mass of the treatment pattern. Overall this work provides a framework for capturing the role of the microbiome in the selection of antibiotic resistance and highlights the role of treatment history for the prevalence of resistance., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Bacterial heteroresistance (i.e., the co-existence of several subpopulations with different antibiotic susceptibilities) can delay the clearance of bacteria even with long antibiotic exposure. Some proposed mechanisms have been successfully described with mathematical models of drug-target binding where the mechanism's downstream of drug-target binding are not explicitly modeled and subsumed in an empirical function, connecting target occupancy to antibiotic action. However, with current approaches it is difficult to model mechanisms that involve multi-step reactions that lead to bacterial killing. Here, we have a dual aim: first, to establish pharmacodynamic models that include multi-step reaction pathways, and second, to model heteroresistance and investigate which molecular heterogeneities can lead to delayed bacterial killing. We show that simulations based on Gillespie algorithms, which have been employed to model reaction kinetics for decades, can be useful tools to model antibiotic action via multi-step reactions. We highlight the strengths and weaknesses of current models and Gillespie simulations. Finally, we show that in our models, slight normally distributed variances in the rates of any event leading to bacterial death can (depending on parameter choices) lead to delayed bacterial killing (i.e., heteroresistance). This means that a slowly declining residual bacterial population due to heteroresistance is most likely the default scenario and should be taken into account when planning treatment length.

Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 (EHEC) is an important food-borne pathogen that colonizes the colon. Transposon-insertion sequencing (TIS) was used to identify genes required for EHEC and E. coli K-12 growth in vitro and for EHEC growth in vivo in the infant rabbit colon. Surprisingly, many conserved loci contribute to EHEC's but not to K-12's growth in vitro. There was a restrictive bottleneck for EHEC colonization of the rabbit colon, which complicated identification of EHEC genes facilitating growth in vivo. Both a refined version of an existing analytic framework as well as PCA-based analysis were used to compensate for the effects of the infection bottleneck. These analyses confirmed that the EHEC LEE-encoded type III secretion apparatus is required for growth in vivo and revealed that only a few effectors are critical for in vivo fitness. Over 200 mutants not previously associated with EHEC survival/growth in vivo also appeared attenuated in vivo, and a subset of these putative in vivo fitness factors were validated. Some were found to contribute to efficient type-three secretion while others, including tatABC, oxyR, envC, acrAB, and cvpA, promote EHEC resistance to host-derived stresses. cvpA is also required for intestinal growth of several other enteric pathogens, and proved to be required for EHEC, Vibrio cholerae and Vibrio parahaemolyticus resistance to the bile salt deoxycholate, highlighting the important role of this previously uncharacterized protein in pathogen survival. Collectively, our findings provide a comprehensive framework for understanding EHEC growth in the intestine., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Treatment of infectious diseases is often long and requires patients to take drugs even after they have seemingly recovered. This is because of a phenomenon called persistence, which allows small fractions of the bacterial population to survive treatment despite being genetically susceptible. The surviving subpopulation is often below detection limit and therefore is empirically inaccessible but can cause treatment failure when treatment is terminated prematurely. Mathematical models could aid in predicting bacterial survival and thereby determine sufficient treatment length. However, the mechanisms of persistence are hotly debated, necessitating the development of multiple mechanistic models. Here we develop a generalized mathematical framework that can accommodate various persistence mechanisms from measurable heterogeneities in pathogen populations. It allows the estimation of the relative increase in treatment length necessary to eradicate persisters compared to the majority population. To simplify and generalize, we separate the model into two parts: the distribution of the molecular mechanism of persistence in the bacterial population (e.g. number of efflux pumps or target molecules, growth rates) and the elimination rate of single bacteria as a function of that phenotype. Thereby, we obtain an estimate of the required treatment length for each phenotypic subpopulation depending on its size and susceptibility.

Listeria monocytogenes is a common food-borne pathogen that can disseminate from the intestine and infect multiple organs. Here, we used sequence tag-based analysis of microbial populations (STAMP) to investigate L monocytogenes population dynamics during infection. We created a genetically barcoded library of murinized L monocytogenes and then used deep sequencing to track the pathogen's dissemination routes and quantify its founding population ( N b ) sizes in different organs. We found that the pathogen disseminates from the gastrointestinal tract to distal sites through multiple independent routes and that N b sizes vary greatly among tissues, indicative of diverse host barriers to infection. Unexpectedly, comparative analyses of sequence tags revealed that fecally excreted organisms are largely derived from the very small number of L. monocytogenes cells that colonize the gallbladder. Immune depletion studies suggest that distinct innate immune cells restrict the pathogen's capacity to establish replicative niches in the spleen and liver. Finally, studies in germ-free mice suggest that the microbiota plays a critical role in the development of the splenic, but not the hepatic, barriers that prevent L. monocytogenes from seeding these organs. Collectively, these observations illustrate the potency of the STAMP approach to decipher the impact of host factors on population dynamics of pathogens during infection., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Identifying optimal dosing of antibiotics has proven challenging-some antibiotics are most effective when they are administered periodically at high doses, while others work best when minimizing concentration fluctuations. Mechanistic explanations for why antibiotics differ in their optimal dosing are lacking, limiting our ability to predict optimal therapy and leading to long and costly experiments. We use mathematical models that describe both bacterial growth and intracellular antibiotic-target binding to investigate the effects of fluctuating antibiotic concentrations on individual bacterial cells and bacterial populations. We show that physicochemical parameters, e.g. the rate of drug transmembrane diffusion and the antibiotic-target complex half-life are sufficient to explain which treatment strategy is most effective. If the drug-target complex dissociates rapidly, the antibiotic must be kept constantly at a concentration that prevents bacterial replication. If antibiotics cross bacterial cell envelopes slowly to reach their target, there is a delay in the onset of action that may be reduced by increasing initial antibiotic concentration. Finally, slow drug-target dissociation and slow diffusion out of cells act to prolong antibiotic effects, thereby allowing for less frequent dosing. Our model can be used as a tool in the rational design of treatment for bacterial infections. It is easily adaptable to other biological systems, e.g. HIV, malaria and cancer, where the effects of physiological fluctuations of drug concentration are also poorly understood., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Vibrio parahaemolyticus is the most common cause of seafood-borne gastroenteritis worldwide and a blight on global aquaculture. This organism requires a horizontally acquired type III secretion system (T3SS2) to infect the small intestine, but knowledge of additional factors that underlie V. parahaemolyticus pathogenicity is limited. We used transposon-insertion sequencing to screen for genes that contribute to viability of V. parahaemolyticus in vitro and in the mammalian intestine. Our analysis enumerated and controlled for the host infection bottleneck, enabling robust assessment of genetic contributions to in vivo fitness. We identified genes that contribute to V. parahaemolyticus colonization of the intestine independent of known virulence mechanisms in addition to uncharacterized components of T3SS2. Our study revealed that toxR, an ancestral locus in Vibrio species, is required for V. parahaemolyticus fitness in vivo and for induction of T3SS2 gene expression. The regulatory mechanism by which V. parahaemolyticus ToxR activates expression of T3SS2 resembles Vibrio cholerae ToxR regulation of distinct virulence elements acquired via lateral gene transfer. Thus, disparate horizontally acquired virulence systems have been placed under the control of this ancestral transcription factor across independently evolved human pathogens.

Treatment failure after therapy of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) infections is an important challenge, especially when it coincides with de novo emergence of multi-drug-resistant TB (MDR-TB). We seek to explore possible causes why MDR-TB has been found to occur much more often in patients with a history of previous treatment. We develop a mathematical model of the replication of Mycobacterium tuberculosis within a patient reflecting the compartments of macrophages, granulomas, and open cavities as well as parameterizing the effects of drugs on the pathogen dynamics in these compartments. We use this model to study the influence of patient adherence to therapy and of common retreatment regimens on treatment outcome. As expected, the simulations show that treatment success increases with increasing adherence. However, treatment occasionally fails even under perfect adherence due to interpatient variability in pharmacological parameters. The risk of generating MDR de novo is highest between 40% and 80% adherence. Importantly, our simulations highlight the double-edged effect of retreatment: On the one hand, the recommended retreatment regimen increases the overall success rate compared to re-treating with the initial regimen. On the other hand, it increases the probability to accumulate more resistant genotypes. We conclude that treatment adherence is a key factor for a positive outcome, and that screening for resistant strains is advisable after treatment failure or relapse.

Background: The projected long-term prevalence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis depends upon the relative fitness of MDR Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains, compared with non-MDR strains. While many experimental models have tested the in vitro or in vivo fitness costs of various drug resistance mutations, fewer epidemiologic studies have attempted to validate these experimental findings., Methods: We performed a case-control study comparing drug resistance-associated mutations from MDR M. tuberculosis strains causing multiple cases in a household to matched MDR strains without evidence of secondary household cases., Results: Eighty-eight multiple-case and 88 single-case household MDR strains were analyzed for 10 specific drug resistance-associated polymorphisms previously associated with fitness effects. We found that the isoniazid-resistant katG Ser315Thr mutation occurred more than twice as frequently in multiple-case households than in single-case households (odds ratio [OR], 2.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21-4.70), corroborating previous experimental findings. However, strains carrying both the katG Ser315Thr mutation and the rpsL Lys43Arg mutation were less likely to be found in multiple-case households (OR, 0.09; 95% CI, .01-.73), suggesting a negative epistatic interaction which contrasts previous findings., Conclusions: The case-control design presents a useful approach for assessing in vivo fitness effects of drug resistance mutations., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.)

The evolution of resistance to antimicrobial chemotherapy is a major and growing cause of human mortality and morbidity. Comparatively little attention has been paid to how different patient treatment strategies shape the evolution of resistance. In particular, it is not clear whether treating individual patients aggressively with high drug dosages and long treatment durations, or moderately with low dosages and short durations can better prevent the evolution and spread of drug resistance. Here, we summarize the very limited available empirical evidence across different pathogens and provide a conceptual framework describing the information required to effectively manage drug pressure to minimize resistance evolution., (© 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.)

The evolution of drug resistant bacteria is a severe public health problem, both in hospitals and in the community. Currently, some countries aim at concentrating highly specialized services in large hospitals in order to improve patient outcomes. Emergent resistant strains often originate in health care facilities, but it is unknown to what extent hospital size affects resistance evolution and the resulting spillover of hospital-associated pathogens to the community. We used two published datasets from the US and Ireland to investigate the effects of hospital size and controlled for several confounders such as antimicrobial usage, sampling frequency, mortality, disinfection and length of stay. The proportion of patients acquiring both sensitive and resistant infections in a hospital strongly correlated with hospital size. Moreover, we observe the same pattern for both the percentage of resistant infections and the increase of hospital-acquired infections over time. One interpretation of this pattern is that chance effects in small hospitals impede the spread of drug-resistance. To investigate to what extent the size distribution of hospitals can directly affect the prevalence of antibiotic resistance, we use a stochastic epidemiological model describing the spread of drug resistance in a hospital setting as well as the interaction between one or several hospitals and the community. We show that the level of drug resistance typically increases with population size: In small hospitals chance effects cause large fluctuations in pathogen population size or even extinctions, both of which impede the acquisition and spread of drug resistance. Finally, we show that indirect transmission via environmental reservoirs can reduce the effect of hospital size because the slow turnover in the environment can prevent extinction of resistant strains. This implies that reducing environmental transmission is especially important in small hospitals, because such a reduction not only reduces overall transmission but might also facilitate the extinction of resistant strains. Overall, our study shows that the distribution of hospital sizes is a crucial factor for the spread of drug resistance.

Antibiotic resistant nosocomial infections are an important cause of mortality and morbidity in hospitals. Antibiotic cycling has been proposed to contain this spread by a coordinated use of different antibiotics. Theoretical work, however, suggests that often the random deployment of drugs ("mixing") might be the better strategy. We use an epidemiological model for a single hospital ward in order to assess the performance of cycling strategies which take into account the frequency of antibiotic resistance in the hospital ward. We assume that information on resistance frequencies stems from microbiological tests, which are performed in order to optimize individual therapy. Thus the strategy proposed here represents an optimization at population-level, which comes as a free byproduct of optimizing treatment at the individual level. We find that in most cases such an informed switching strategy outperforms both periodic cycling and mixing, despite the fact that information on the frequency of resistance is derived only from a small sub-population of patients. Furthermore we show that the success of this strategy is essentially a stochastic phenomenon taking advantage of the small population sizes in hospital wards. We find that the performance of an informed switching strategy can be improved substantially if information on resistance tests is integrated over a period of one to two weeks. Finally we argue that our findings are robust against a (moderate) preexistence of doubly resistant strains and against transmission via environmental reservoirs. Overall, our results suggest that switching between different antibiotics might be a valuable strategy in small patient populations, if the switching strategies take the frequencies of resistance alleles into account.