Search

Offshore wind energy is an important agent to fight climate change. However, it is simultaneously very sensitive to climate change. This study analyzes the future changes in wind speed of 10 m above sea surface (V10) in the North Atlantic Ocean and how these variations may affect offshore wind energy resources for three potential subregions (the United States (US) East Coast, western Iberian Peninsula, and the Caribbean Sea). Dynamic downscaling of three different future scenarios of the CESM2 global climate model (CMIP6 project) was performed using the WRF-ARW atmospheric model. V10 is expected to decrease in the winter and spring seasons but increase in summer and autumn, mainly in tropical regions up to 30 °N. Annually, it shows the maximum increase in the tropical region. For the Iberian Peninsula subregion, significant increases in summer are expected for wind power density (WPD) along the 21st century, but there is uncertainty for the other seasons. A WPD decrease in winter and increases in summer and autumn are expected along the 21st century for the US subregion. No significant changes were observed at annual scale. Finally, for the Caribbean Sea, a decrease is projected in the Yucatan Basin and considerable increases are foreseen for the Colombia and Venezuela basins. Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481A-2020/193 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44 Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. JC2020-043745-I Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. PID2021-22314OB-I00 Universidade de Vigo/CISUG

Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade de Vigo/CISUG The tropical cyclones (TCs) trajectories are mainly controlled by the large-scale parameters related with the steering flow. We used the HURDAT2 database from 1980 to 2018 for grouping the tracks of TCs formed in the North Atlantic (NATL) main development region into straight moving (SM), recurving landfall (RCL) and recurving ocean (RCO). Based on this classification, we investigated the changes in the moisture sources' contributions to the precipitation along the TCs trajectories for each track category by applying a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic method to the air parcels pathways from the FLEXPART model. The highest moisture contribution occurred within 3-5° from the average TCs trajectories. The moisture supplied from the Gulf of Mexico represented 19.1% of humidity gained by SM but was negligible for recurving TCs. Likewise, the Caribbean Sea contributed 31.8% for SM, and its humidity support notably decreased for recurving storms to 0.9–8.3%. In addition, the moisture uptake from the tropical NATL was similar for all track types. The western NATL increased the moisture supply from 15.3% for SM to 31.1% for RCO and 42.6% for RCL, while the eastern subtropical NATL provided 3.1% of moisture to SM, 12.5% to RCL and 45.4% to RCO. It was also notable the moisture support from the terrestrial source southeastern United States (5.3%) for RCL tracks. Furthermore, we found that El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Mode influence the moisture contributions variability from sources for each track type Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481A2020/193 Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades | Ref. PID2021-122314OB-I00 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481A2022/128

Extreme climate events, such as heatwaves and torrential rain, affect the physiology and functioning of marine species, especially in estuarine habitats, producing severe ecological and socioeconomic impacts when the affected species support important fisheries, such as artisanal shellfisheries. Studies of the impact of sudden decreases in salinity and increases in temperature were reviewed with the aim of producing comprehensive conceptual maps to aid the management of fisheries of the native clams Ruditapes decussatus and Venerupis corrugata, the introduced Ruditapes philippinarum, and the cockle Cerastoderma edule in Galicia (NW Spain). The maps show the effects on mortality, scope for growth, ability to burrow, changes in gonad development or predation risk. While V. corrugata will generally be more affected by low salinity (5 to 15) or high temperature (30 °C) during only two tidal cycles, C. edule populations may recover. Both species are also expected to become more vulnerable to predators. The clams R. philippinarum and R. decussatus will be more resistant, unless extreme events occur after massive spawning episodes; however, the presence of the intertidal seagrass Zostera noltei may buffer the negative effects of high sediment temperature on the growth of some species, such as R. decussatus. Finally, recommendations for assessing climate risk and designing management actions for shellfisheries are given. Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. CTM2014-51935-R Xunta de Galicia-FEDER | Ref. GRC2013 004 Xunta de Galicia-FEDER | Ref. ED431C 2021/42

Future changes in the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) under global warming are uncertain, although several studies have projected an upward trend in TC intensity. In this study, we examined the changes in the strength of TCs in the twenty-first century based on the Hurricane Maximum Potential Intensity (HuMPI) model forced with the sea surface temperature (SST) from the bias-corrected CMIP6 dataset. We first investigated the relationship between the mean lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of major hurricanes (MHs) and the maximum potential intensity (MPI) using the SST from the Daily Optimum Interpolation SST database. The LMI of MHs and the MPI in the last two decades was, on average, 2–3% higher than mean values in the sub-period 1982–2000, suggesting a relationship between changes in MPI and LMI. From our findings, the projected changes in TC intensity in the near-future period (2016–2040) will be almost similar for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. However, TCs will be 9.5% and 17% more intense by the end (2071–2100) of the twenty-first century under both climate scenarios, respectively, compared with the mean intensity over the historical period (1985–2014). In addition, the MPI response to a warmed sea surface temperature per degree of warming is a 5–7% increase in maximum potential wind speed. These results should be interpreted as a projection of changes in TC intensity under global warming since the HuMPI formulation does not include environmental factors (i.e., vertical wind shear, mid-level moisture content and environmental stratification) that influence TC long-term intensity variations. Universidade de Vigo/CISUG

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extremely rare over the South Atlantic Ocean (SATL) due to predominantly unfavourable conditions, that is, cool sea-surface temperature and strong vertical wind shear. Nevertheless, unusual conditions over SATL associated with a blocking system promoted the formation of Hurricane Catarina from an extratropical precursor in late March 2004, which produced heavy rainfall over the states of Santa Catarina and the Rio Grande do Sul in south Brazil. This work identifies the moisture sources for the precipitation produced by Catarina along its 6-hourly trajectory, through a Lagrangian moisture-tracking method. We extracted the pathways of precipitating air parcels within the cyclone’s outer radius from the global outputs of the FLEXPART model forced with the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Our findings revealed the terrestrial source in south-southeastern Brazil (SEB) and the oceanic source limited by the box between 20-40◦S and 30–50◦W over SATL (WSATL) as the principal moisture sources, with the overall support of ∼27% and ∼66%, respectively. However, their contribution varied according to the development phase of Catarina. While the moisture uptake from SEB decreased from ∼75% during the extratropical phase to ∼8% during the hybrid stage, the moisture contribution from WSATL notable increased from ∼20% to 87%, respectively. Likewise, the contributions from SEB and WSATL during the tropical phase of the cyclone accounted for ∼13% and ∼85%, respectively. The tracked air parcels achieved the high water content in a short period before the precipitation, leading to a reduction of the mean water vapour residence time to ∼3.1 days. Additionally, the precipitating moisture uptake along the Catarina trajectory was noticeably higher than the climatological value. Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481A2020/193 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481A2022/128 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44 Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades | Ref. PID2021‐122314OB‐I00 Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. JPIOCEANS/0001/2019

Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44 Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. PID2021-122314OB-I00 Universidade de Vigo/CISUG

Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade de Vigo/CISUG The growing increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (EWEs) has a wide impact on energy systems and consumers, as energy transmission infrastructures - overhead power lines (OPL). The main objective of this work is to present the methodology of risk analysis of the EWEs on OPL in Portugal. The level of risk associated with each of the identified events is classified according to the probability of occurrence and consequences, in a risk matrix, and through the cause-and-effect analysis. It is concluded that, in Portugal, the extreme wind – corresponding to level 11 of the Beaufort Wind Force Scale, that is, values equal to or higher than 105.1 km h- 1 (29.22 m s-1) – is the main factor that provoked the OPL disruption, between 28% and 40% of analyzed events associated with windstorms. Considering the occurrence of compound events - wind and rain - the probability of damage to OPL is between 21% and 30%; for wind and ice, it is 3%–5%. EWEs represent a serious risk for electrical systems, and it is necessary to develop effective solutions to minimize the associated impacts, such as the modification and upgrade of the current design and engineering standards, and electrical network monitoring. Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. UID/GEO/50019/2019 Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. PTDC/CTAMET/29233/2017 Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. LISBOA-01-0145-FEDER-029233 Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. NORTE-01-0145- FEDER-029233 Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. UIDB/04033/2020 Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. 2021.04927.BD Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44

This paper makes use of a combination of FLEXPART-WRF simulations forced with ERA5 and the CESM2 model—incorporated in the CMIP6 project—to infer a series of changes over the present century in the behavior of the landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) arriving to the Iberian Peninsula. In addition, future changes in the intensity and position of their main moisture sources are studied. In overall terms, there is a noticeable increase in the amount of moisture transported by ARs in the study region, particularly accentuated by the end of the century. However, no significant changes in the number of events are observed. A northward shift of both the mean position of the ARs as well as their main sources of moisture is also detected, particularly for the end of the century, and in the summer and fall months. In relation to the latter, an increase in the contribution of moisture contribution is also observed, quantitatively compatible with Clausius-Clapeyron amplification. Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. PID2021-122314OB-I00 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481A‐2020/193 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44 Universidade de Vigo/CISUG

The sweet chestnut fruit has always had great importance in the southern European countries. Chestnut production is an important source of income and a crop of high environmental value thanks to its role in soil protection. It is also a good food with enormous potential for various aspects of health because of its nutritional qualities. The quality of sweet chestnuts is affected by various factors, such as climatic conditions and cultivation inputs. It is very important to recognize the impacts of climate on chestnut fruits, to improve our current understanding of climate–chestnut interconnections. The current study investigated and compared the antioxidant activity and the total phenolic and flavonoid contents of different cultivars of chestnuts grown in different geographic areas of northwest Spain. The results obtained with three antioxidant capability assays (DPPH, ABTS and FRAP assays) were highly correlated. All the samples had high antioxidant capacity and high total phenolic and total flavonoid contents, which depended both on cultivar and growth region. Ventura variety, harvested in the coldest environments, presented the highest values of antioxidant activity (IC50DPPH = 34.5 g/L), total phenolic content (131.84 mg equivalent of gallic acid/100 g FW) and total flavonoids (7.77 mg eq. catechin/100 g). The variations in the antioxidant capacity, total phenolic and total flavonoid contents of different cultivars, and their associations with climatic environmental factors, revealed the significant impacts of these factors on the synthesis of specialized metabolites and on the nutraceutical potential of chestnuts. The results can provide valuable information for selection of the cultivar and the cultivation conditions of the chestnut, in order to obtain chestnuts with high-quality bioactive characteristics.

Invasive species become established in non-native areas due to their intrinsic characteristics and the ability to adapt to new environments. This work describes the characteristics of the nesting behavior of the invasive yellow-legged hornet (Vespa velutina nigrithorax) in Galicia (Northwest Spain). The first nest was detected in the area in 2012 and after that, the distribution pattern shows a species-invasion curve with slow progress at first but followed by rapid expansion. The nesting places for this hornet differ between the kinds of nests, while embryo nests are mainly found in buildings in spring, secondary nests are observed in vegetation in summer, autumn, and winter. The annual life cycle starts when the queen builds the embryo nests and starts to lay eggs. This leads to the emergence of the first workers, usually small in size, and sometimes a few males. After this stage, large nests called secondary nests are normally observed in most exposed sites. Relocation nests can also be observed; these are nests in the first stage of development presenting adults insects but without brood or meconium. The period of decline is characterized by the emergence of new queens and males, that are distinguishable even in the pupal stage, the appearance of two eggs per cell, and an irregular brood pattern. INTERREG ATLANTIC AREA PROGRAM | Ref. EAPA_800/2018-Atlantic-POSitive Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481D-2022-021

Secondary infections of early blight during potato crop season are conditioned by aerial inoculum. However, although aerobiological studies have focused on understanding the key factors that influence the spore concentration in the air, less work has been carried out to predict when critical concentrations of conidia occur. Therefore, the goals of this study were to understand the key weather variables that affect the hourly and daily conidia dispersal of Alternaria solani and A. alternata in a potato field, and to use these weather factors in different machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict the daily conidia levels. This study showed that conidia per hour in a day is influenced by the weather conditions that characterize the hour, but not the hour of the day. Specifically, the relative humidity and solar radiation were the most relevant weather parameters influencing the conidia concentration in the air and both in a linear model explained 98% of the variation of this concentration per hour. Moreover, the dew point temperature three days before was the weather variable with the strongest effect on conidia per day. An improved prediction of Alternaria conidia level was achieved via ML algorithms when the conidia of previous days is considered in the analysis. Among the ML algorithms applied, the CART model with an accuracy of 86% were the best to predict daily conidia level. Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deportes | Ref. FPU 17/00267

35 páginas, ilustraciones [ES] El cambio climático es uno de los mayores problemas ambientales al que nos enfrentamos actualmente como sociedad. La frecuencia y severidad de los fenómenos climáticos extremos como sequías e inundaciones no deja de crecer debido a aumentos en la temperatura media global y a cambios en los patrones de movimiento atmosférico. El objetivo de este trabajo es verificar la existencia de tendencias en el territorio español peninsular para la temperatura, precipitación e índice NAO, definido como la diferencia anómala entre el anticiclón de las Azores y la borrasca islandesa. Se busca analizar también cómo afecta la oscilación del Atlántico norte en las precipitaciones y la temperatura española en diferentes estaciones. Utilizando el programa de análisis estadístico Rstudio junto a datos de 67 estaciones meteorológicas con seguimiento durante al menos ochenta años, se realizaron cuatro tipos de pruebas capaces de analizar tendencias y establecer patrones relacionales entre distribuciones de datos. Una prueba K-S, una regresión lineal, la prueba de Mann-Kendall y una correlación de kendall. Se encontraron evidencias claras de la existencia de tendencias positivas en la temperatura durante todo el siglo pasado, afectando especialmente al interior de la peninsula y al litoral mediterráneo. En cuanto a la precipitación, se determinó que el cambio climático no afecta significativamente a los regímenes de precipitación a escala local, pero si lo hace de forma indirecta, modificando la oscilación del Atlántico norte de tal forma que los movimientos atmosféricos tiendan a dirigirse hacia Centroeuropa llevándose las nubes con ellos, disminuyendo la precipitación y aumentando la temperatura en la península [EN] Climate change is one of the biggest environmental problems we are currently facing as a society. The frequency and severity of extreme climatic phenomena such as droughts and floods is constantly increasing due to increases in global mean temperature and changes in atmospheric movements. The aim of this work is to verify the existence of trends in the Spanish peninsular territory in temperature, precipitation and NAO index, defined as the anomalous difference between the Azores anticyclone and the Icelandic cyclone , as well as to determine how the orth Atlantic oscillation affects Spanish precipitation and temperature in different seasons. Using the statistical analysis program Rstudio together with data from 67 meteorological stations tracked for at least eighty years, four types of tests capable of analyzing trends and establishing relational patterns between data distributions were performed. A K-S test, a linear regression, the Mann-Kendall test and a kendall correlation. Clear evidence was found for the existence of positive trends in temperature throughout the last century, especially affecting the interior of the peninsula and the Mediterranean coast. As for precipitation, it was determined that climate change does not significantly affect precipitation regimes on a local scale, but does so indirectly, modifying the North Atlantic oscillation in such a way that atmospheric movements tend to move towards Central Europe, taking clouds with them, decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature in the peninsula

30 páginas, ilustraciones [ES] En este trabajo se muestreó la dolina denominada Prado Veneiro, dentro del valle del río Luna (León), con el objetivo de conocer las condiciones atmosféricas a nivel sinóptico que favorecen la formación de Piscinas de Aire Frío (CAPs), una clase de inversión térmica muy localizada en el espacio y a veces persistente en el tiempo. Para ello, se realizó una comparación de las temperaturas mínimas y máximas entre la dolina y una ubicación ajena a estos fenómenos. Con los datos recogidos en campo, se realizó un Análisis de Componentes Principales (PCA) acompañado por un análisis clúster no jerárquico, así como un test de correlación de Pearson con diversas variables atmosféricas extraídas del Reanálisis ERA-5. Los resultados, además de arrojar registros nunca observados en los fondos de valle leoneses (-29,7ºC) indicaron la gran magnitud de las CAPs registradas en esta zona durante todo el año, llegando a superar los 20ºC de diferencia. Además, destacó la aparición de episodios de Piscinas de Aire Frío Permanentes (PCAPs) en los meses invernales, que se desarrollaron durante las horas centrales del día. Por último, se observó que las CAPs y PCAPs se encuentran correlacionadas con distintas variables atmosféricas, indicando la importancia de la presencia de nieve reciente para la formación de las segundas [EN] The Prado Veneiro sinkhole, within the Luna River valley (León), was researched aiming to understand the atmospheric conditions at synoptic scale that trigger the formation of Cold Air Pools (CAPs), a kind of thermal inversion which is strongly localized in space, but sometimes quite persistent in time. Thus, a comparison of the minimum and maximum temperatures between the sinkhole and a location external to these phenomena was carried out. Subsequently, after the field work was made, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was carried out accompanied by a non-hierarchical cluster analysis, as well as a Pearson correlation test with various atmospheric variables extracted from the Reanalysis data from ERA-5. Results showed record-breaking temperatures never observed before in the low valleys of León (-29.7ºC), demonstrating the strength of the CAPs recorded in this area throughout the year, which reached differences of over 20ºC. In addition, the presence of Permanent Cold Air Pools (PCAPs) in the winter months, which developed during the midday, was highlighted. Ultimatelly, CAPs and PCAPs showed they were correlated with different atmospheric variables, suggesting the need of a recent snow base for a strong PCAP development

Future changes are expected in precipitation under climate change, therefore, changes are projected in the oceanic and terrestrial components. However, it remains poorly elucidated how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence these changes. Therefore, we aimed to perform a space-time causality analysis of regional ENSO impacts on terrestrial and oceanic precipitation by using the Granger causality method as a function of eight temporal lags (lags 1–8). The monthly values of total precipitation obtained using the Lagrangian approach and their respective terrestrial (PLT) and oceanic (PLO) components were used. The analysis was performed for the two regions of western North America (WNA) and eastern South America (ESA) with strong ENSO signals. For the WNA region in winter, the maximum Granger causality was observed in the component of oceanic origin for temporal lags 1 and 2 (3 and 6 months), with a predominance of both positive and negative ENSO conditions. For the ESA region, it was verified that the causality of the ENSO index was maximum for PLT. Temporal lags 2–5 (6–15 months) stood out in winter when there was a marked region of the Granger causality over the La Plata Basin. In autumn, for lags 1–4 (3–12 months), the Granger causality values were predominant in the southern and western areas of ESA and showed a tendency to move northward with an increased temporal lag. Finally, it was shown that high correlation values did not imply the causality of the relationship between the ENSO index and precipitation in the two regions. Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481A-2020/193 Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades | Ref. PID2021-122314OB-I00

Tropical cyclone (TC)-related rainfall mostly depends on the atmospheric moisture uptake from local and remote sources. In this study, the mean water vapour residence time (MWVRT) was computed for precipitation related to TCs in each basin and on a global scale by applying a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic method. According to our results, the highest MWVRT was found for the TCs over the South Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean basins (∼3.08 days), followed by the Western North Pacific Ocean, Central and East North Pacific Ocean, North Indian Ocean, and North Atlantic Ocean basins (which exhibited values of 2.98, 2.94, 2.85, and 2.72 days, respectively). We also found a statistically significant (p < 0.05) decrease in MWVRT, at a rate of ∼2.4 h/decade in the North Indian Ocean and ∼1.0 h/decade in the remaining basins. On average, the MWVRT decreased during the 24 h before TCs made landfall, and the atmospheric parcels precipitated faster after evaporation when TCs moved over land than over the ocean. Further research should focus on the relationship between global warming and MWVRT of atmospheric parcels that precipitate over TC positions Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades | Ref. RTI2018-095772-B-I00 Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades | Ref. PID2021-122314OB-I00 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C2021/44 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481A-2020/193

In this study, we evaluated the ability of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) system, operational at the Department of Meteorology of the Higher Institute of Technologies and Applied Sciences, University of Havana, Cuba, for forecasting the intensity and trajectory of the North Atlantic (NATL) tropical cyclones (TCs). To assess the ability of the NTHF system in the first five years (2016–2020) of operational runs, we used the best tracks from the National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 database. The errors in the track forecast increased linearly from 41 km at 6 h to 356 km at 120 h. In addition, NTHF underestimates the intensity of TCs, especially those that reach Category 3+ hurricanes on the Saffir–Simpson wind scale. Overall, the mean absolute error in forecasting the maximum wind speed (minimum pressure) ranged from 26.5 km/h (7 hPa) to 33.7 km/h (11.7 hPa). Moreover, the highest BIAS in the intensity forecast was found in the first 48 h, suggesting that model initialization is the main driver of NTHF errors in the forecast maximum wind speed and the minimum central pressure of TCs in the North Atlantic Basin.

Vespa velutina is an invasive species that is currently the main concern for beekeeping in some areas of northern Spain. The hornet hunts honeybees to feed its larvae, stressing and weakening the honeybee colonies. To avoid losses of honeybee colonies, it is essential to investigate the pressure that is exerted by the yellow-legged hornet on apiaries and its consequences. In the present study, hives were monitored in an apiary that was situated in a high-pressure area of V. velutina during the years 2020 and 2021. The monitoring of environmental conditions of the apiary, the internal conditions of the colonies, and a hunting camera were used to relate the presence of hornets in front of the hives to the weather conditions in the apiary and the consequences caused on the colonies. The relationships between weather conditions and the hornet’s activity showed two types of hornet behavior. In the months of July and August, the maximum number of hornets appeared in non-central hours of the day. Meanwhile, in the months of September and October, the highest pressure in the apiary occurred in the central hours of the day, coinciding with temperatures between 15 °C and 25 °C and a relative humidity that was higher than 60%. The honeybee colony with the highest thermoregulatory capacity was the strongest and it was the key factor for the colony survival even when the hornet pressure was high too. Therefore, strengthening the hives and improving beehive health status is essential to avoid colonies decline. INTERREG ATLANTIC AREA PROGRAM | Ref. EAPA_800/2018—Atlantic-POSitive Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B-2018/059

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are a major mode of variability of the winter stratosphere. In recent years, climate models have improved their ability to simulate SSWs. However, the representation of the frequency and temporal distribution of SSWs in models depends on many factors and remains challenging. The vertical resolution of a model might be one such factor. Therefore, here we analyse the impact of increased vertical resolution on the simulation of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We compare two versions of the model, WACCM3.5 and WACCM4. We find that the frequency of occurrence of SSWs is improved in the newer version and closer to that obtained using reanalysis. Furthermore, simulations with a coupled ocean best reproduce the behaviour of temperature during these events. Increasing vertical resolution increases the number of occurrences; however, it does not produce significantly different results than standard resolution. WACCM4 also does not reproduce vortex split events well, generating far fewer of these than observed. Finally, the ratio between polar vortex splits and displacement events in the model is slightly better for non-ocean-coupled simulations. We conclude that, at least for WACCM4, the use of the high vertical resolution configuration is not cost-effective for the study of SSWs. Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. GL2011-24826 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. CGL2015-71575-P Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. RYC-2013-14560

Climate change is a challenge for forests in the coming decades, with a major impact on species adaptation and distribution. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most vulnerable hotspots for biodiversity conservation under climate change in the world. This research aimed at studying a Mediterranean species well adapted to the region: the Arbutus unedo L. (strawberry tree). The MaxEnt, a presence-only species-distribution software, was used to model A. unedo’s environmental suitability. The current species potential distribution was accessed based on actual occurrences and selected environmental variables and subsequently projected for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), and the years 2050 and 2070, considering the two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results from the LGM projection suggest the presence of refugia in the core of the Mediterranean Basin, in particular the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The projections for the MH indicate increasing climatic suitability for the species and an eastward expansion, relatively to LGM. The predicted future environmental changes will most likely act as a catalyst for suitable habitat loss and a range shift towards the North is likely to occur. Programa Operacional Regional do Centro | Ref. Centro-01-0145-FEDER-000019 – C4 – Centro de Competências em Cloud Computing Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. UIDB/00239/2020 Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. UIDB/05183/2020 Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. UIDB/00681/2020

Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade de Vigo/CISUG Pérez-Alarcón et al. [1] developed a comparative climatology of the outer radius of tropical cyclones (TCs) from several radial wind profiles. They showed that the Willoughby et al. (2006) (W06) profile can be used to reproduce the TC tangential wind speed; thus, this profile is skilful for estimating the TC outer radius. Here, we present a database of TC sizes estimated from the W06 radial wind profile in each cyclogenetic basin worldwide. The database incorporates the critical wind radii, where the tangential wind speed is approximately 17.5 ms−1 (R34), 26 ms−1 (R50), 33 ms−1 (R64), and 51 ms−1 (R100), estimated by the W06 profile. The database has a comma-delimited text format with six-hour information on the location, maximum wind speed, central pressure, and the different TC metrics mentioned above. This database has a similar structure to that of the Atlantic Hurricane Database (HURDAT2) of the National Hurricane Center. The database presented here is applicable to studies on TC storm surge risks as well as to the determination of the sources and sinks of atmospheric moisture related to tropical cyclogenesis processes. Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481A-2020/193 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B 2019/070 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44 Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. RTI2018-095772-B-I00

In the context of sustainable agricultural management, drought monitoring plays a crucial role in assessing the vulnerability of agriculture to drought occurrence. Drought events are very frequent in the Iberian Peninsula (and in Portugal in particular), and an increase in frequency of these extreme events are expected in a very near future. Therefore, the quantitative assessment of the natural-ecosystem vulnerability to drought is still very challenging, mainly due to the difficulties of having a common definition of vulnerability. Consequently, several methods have been proposed to assess agricultural vulnerability. In this work, a principal component analysis (PCA) was performed based on the components which characterize the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the agricultural system to drought events with the aim of generating maps of vulnerability of agriculture to drought in Portugal. Several datasets were used to describe these components, namely drought indicators, vegetation indices and soil characterization variables. A comparison between the PCA-based method and a variance method using the same indicators was performed. Results show that both methods identify Minho and Alentejo as regions of low and extreme vulnerability, respectively. The results are very similar between the two methods, with small differences in certain vulnerability classes. However, the PCA method has some advantages over the variance method, namely the ability to identify the sign of the indicators, not having to use the indicator–component subjective relationship, and not needing to calculate weights. Furthermore, the PCA method is fully statistical and presents results according to prior knowledge of the region and the data used Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. PTDC/CTA-CLI/28902/2017 Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. WaterJPI/0004/2014 Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. ERA4CS/0005/2016

Variations in the airborne pollen load are among the current and expected impacts on plant pollination driven by climate change. Due to the potential risk for pollen-allergy sufferers, this study aimed to analyze the trends of the three most abundant spring-tree pollen types, Pinus, Platanus and Quercus, and to evaluate the possible influence of meteorological conditions. An aerobiological study was performed during the 1993–2020 period in the Ourense city (NW Spain) by means of a Hirst-type volumetric sampler. Meteorological data were obtained from the ‘Ourense’ meteorological station of METEOGALICIA. We found statistically significant trends for the Total Pollen in all cases. The positive slope values indicated an increase in pollen grains over the pollen season along the studied years, ranging from an increase of 107 to 442 pollen grains. The resulting C5.0 Decision Trees and Rule-Based Models coincided with the Spearman’s correlations since both statistical analyses showed a strong and positive influence of temperature and sunlight on pollen release and dispersal, as well as a negative influence of rainfall due to washout processes. Specifically, we found that slight rainfall and moderate temperatures promote the presence of Pinus pollen in the atmosphere and a marked effect of the daily thermal amplitude on the presence of high Platanus pollen levels. The percentage of successful predictions of the C5.0 models ranged between 62.23–74.28%. The analysis of long-term datasets of pollen and meteorological information provides valuable models that can be used as an indicator of potential allergy risk in the short term by feeding the obtained models with weather prognostics. Xunta de Galicia | Ref. CO-0034-2021 00VT Universidad de Vigo | Ref. INOU 2021 Universidad de Vigo | Ref. OUR1 131H 647

Producción Científica, This paper analyses surface ozone measurements at five stations in an urban area (Valladolid) in the upper Spanish plateau over the period 2002–2020. Temporal evolutions, the relationship between ozone and other pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, and the assessment of the ozone concentration trend during the study period were analysed. Daily evolution of ozone at all the stations showed mean maximum concentrations in the afternoon, 15:00 GMT, with values ranging between 73.8 and 80.9 µg m−3, evidencing the influence of photochemical processes favoured by solar radiation in ozone formation. The lowest levels were recorded at night and in the early morning, 7:00 GMT, and were between 23.4 and 32.3 µg m−3, related with the reduction by NO reactions and deposition processes. A broad spring–summer peak between May and July was seen, with the highest values in the latter, with a mean value of up to 73.8 µg m−3. The variation in the monthly mean ozone concentrations of the different percentiles was analysed using a harmonic model. The empirical equation described the experimental values satisfactorily, with a confidence level of 95% and coefficients of determination above 80%, confirming the major decreasing trend in the ozone peak values over the study period., Junta de Castilla y León (Project VA027G19)

Studying the moisture sources responsible for precipitation in Iran is highly important. In recent years, moisture sources that influence precipitation across Iran have been studied using various methods. In this study, moisture uptake rate from individual sources that influences precipitation across Iran has been determined using the (E − P) values obtained by the FLEXPART model for the 1981–2015 period. Then, moisture uptake rate from individual sources has been used as independent parameters to investigate the fractional importance of moisture sources that influence precipitation in Iran using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) as well as machine learning (ML) methods including artificial neural networks, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gboost, and XGboost. Furthermore, the average annual precipitation in Iran was simulated using ML methods. The results showed that the Arabian Sea has a dominant fractional influence on precipitation in both wet (November to April) and dry (May to October) periods. Simulation of precipitation amounts using the ML methods presented accurate models during the wet period, whereas the developed models for the dry period were not adequate. Finally, validation of the accuracy of the ML models using RMSE and R2 values showed that the models developed using XGboost had the highest accuracy. Mahidol University | Ref. MU-PD-2021-13 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B-2019/070 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44

As it is well known, one of the predicted consequences of global climate change is a change on the frequency of occurrence of extreme events such as heat waves and torrential rains that are modifying the coastal salinities (IPCC 2012). Specifically, the regional climate projections in the Fifth Assessment Report by the IPCC and from the EURO-CORDEX downscaling project show that on the Atlantic coast of Europe there will be ‘very likely’ more frequent heat waves longer in duration and greater in intensity as well as increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation by 2099. Given their ecological and socioeconomic importance, coastal marine ecosystems, especially estuaries, are a major focus of concern because of the potential dramatic impacts of climate change on their structure and functioning. Acute fluctuations in salinity (S) and temperature (T) due to extreme events may have significant impacts on biogeochemical processes in water and sediments as well as on species’ physiological condition and metabolic function. Environmental stress may also drive episodes of mass mortality depending on the species, life cycle or spatio-temporal context. This is of special concern when the affected species support important fisheries with huge socioeconomic costs. In Galicia, the native clams Ruditapes decussatus (grooved carpet shell) and Venerupis corrugata (pullet carpet shell), the introduced R. philippinarum (Manila clam, japanese carpet shell) and the cocke Cerastoderma edule represented the last years almost of 80% of total bivalve landings and more than 85% of the value of the total bivalve landings. These populations are highly variable, depending on the estuary conditions (river runoff, sediment, exposure…) and the weather. Major drivers of variability are heat waves and fluctuations in S with increased river runoff from heavy rains resulting in higher mortalities. For example massive bivalve mortality episodes occurred in autumn-winter 2000-2001, and it prevented these resources from being exploited for 1 year. Especially rainy conditions in the winter of 2013-14 caused very severe mortality of carpet clams in Ría de Vigo, Ría de Arousa and Ría de Pontevedra. However, environmental stress not only provokes short-term mortality, but also it may have sub-lethal effects on individuals, reducing growth or physiological condition and reproductive output, increasing vulnerability to disease or predation, etc., with consequences for recruitment of juveniles and replenishment of shellfish beds. Because of increased exploitation of non-native species like R. philippinarum it is important to know how extreme events affect introduced species compared to native ones. Evidence in the literature and our ongoing experiments suggest that introduced species may be more resistant. In this thesis, extreme events will be related to meteorological processes so that predictive models can serve as an early warning tool for management of shellfish. These mechanistic predictions, incorporating physiological and ecological data from experiments in the laboratory and in the field, are beyond the traditional niche models and will be much likely to provide estimates of risk for extreme events more robust than other methods. The general hypothesis is that impacts of extreme events and climate change will be stronger for middle intertidal than lower intertidal species and in the inner part than in the outer part of rías; also the stress due to these events will be stronger in native species than in the introduced one. Una de las consecuencias previsibles del cambio climático global es el cambio en la frecuencia de ocurrencia de eventos extremos como olas de calor y lluvias torrenciales que están cambiando la salinidad costera (IPCC, 2012). En concreto, las proyecciones climáticas regionales del Quinto Informe de Evaluación del IPCC y el proyecto EURO CORDEX son que en la costa atlántica de Europa, las olas de calor serán "más probablemente" más largas en duración y de mayor intensidad, así como una mayor intensidad y frecuencia de precipitaciones extremas para 2099. Dada su importancia ecológica y socioeconómica, los ecosistemas marinos costeros, especialmente los estuarios, son una fuente importante de preocupación por las posibles consecuencias dramáticas del cambio climático en su estructura y funcionamiento. Fuertes fluctuaciones en la salinidad (S) y la temperatura (T), debido a los fenómenos extremos pueden tener un impacto significativo en los procesos biogeoquímicos en agua y sedimentos, así como sobre el estado fisiológico de las especies y la función metabólica. El estrés ambiental puede inducir episodios de mortalidad masiva, dependiendo de la especie, el ciclo de vida o contexto espacio-temporal. Esto es de particular preocupación cuando las especies afectadas soportan importantes pesquerías con enormes beneficios socioeconómicos. En Galicia, las almejas nativas Ruditapes decussatus (almeja fina) y Venerupis corrugata (almeja babosa), la introducida (almeja japonesa) y el berberecho Cerastoderma edule representan, en los últimos años, casi el 80% de todas las descargas de bivalvos y más 85% del valor comercial total de los bivalvos. Estas poblaciones son muy variables, dependiendo de las condiciones de cada banco marisquero (desembocaduras de los ríos, sedimentos, exposición...) y del clima. Los factores principales son la variabilidad de las olas de calor y las fluctuaciones en la salinidad causada por el aumento de las descargas de los ríos por las lluvias, lo que resulta en mayores tasas de mortalidad. Por ejemplo, un episodio de mortalidad masiva de los bivalvos se produjo en el otoño-invierno 2000-2001, e impidió que estos recursos fuesen explotados durante un año. Condiciones de pluviosidad inusuales en el invierno de 2013-14 provocaron mortalidad muy grave de la almeja fina en la ría de Vigo, la ría de Arousa y Pontevedra. Sin embargo, el estrés ambiental no sólo causa mortalidad a corto plazo, sino que también puede tener efectos sub-letales sobre los individuos, reduciendo el crecimiento o la condición fisiológica y producción de descendencia, lo que aumenta la vulnerabilidad a la enfermedad o la depredación, etc., con consecuencias para reclutamiento de juveniles y reposición de los bancos marisqueros. Debido al aumento de la explotación de especies no autóctonas como R. philippinarum es importante saber cómo los acontecimientos extremos afectan a las especies introducidas en comparación con las nativas. La evidencia en la literatura y nuestras experiencias actuales sugieren que la especie introducida puede ser más resistente. En esta tesis, los eventos extremos serán relacionados con los modelos de predicción meteorológica y podrán servir como una herramienta de alerta temprana para la gestión de los recursos. Estas previsiones mecanicistas que incorporan fisiología de datos y experimentos ecológicos en el laboratorio y en el campo, va más allá de los modelos de nicho tradicionales y serán mucho más fáciles de obtener estimaciones del riesgo de eventos extremos más robustos que otros métodos. La hipótesis general es que los efectos de los fenómenos extremos y el cambio climático serán más fuertes para las especies del intermareal medio que para las especies del intermareal inferior y en el interior en la parte exterior de los estuarios; también que el estrés debido a estos eventos será más fuerte en las especies nativas que en las introducidas. Como é ben coñecido, unha das consecuencias previsibles do cambio climático global é un cambio na frecuencia da aparición de eventos extremos tales como ondas de calor e choivas torrenciais que están modificando as salinidades costeiras (IPCC de 2012). Específicamente, as proxeccións climáticas rexionais do Quinto Informe de Avaliación do IPCC e do proxecto EURO CORDEX mostran que na costa atlántica de Europa, haberá ondas de calor "moi probablemente" máis longas en duración e de maior intensidade, ben como aumento na intensidade e frecuencia de precipitación extrema para 2099. Dada a súa importancia ecolóxica e socioeconómica, os ecosistemas mariños costeiros, especialmente os estuáricos, son un gran foco de preocupación por mor das posibles consecuencias dramáticas do cambio climático sobre a súa estrutura e funcionamento. Flutuacións agudas en salinidade (S) e temperatura (T) debido a eventos extremos poden ter impactos significativos sobre os procesos bioxeoquímicos na auga e sedimentos, así como sobre a condición fisiolóxica das especies e a función metabólica. O estrés ambiental pode inducir episodios de mortalidade masiva, dependendo da especie, ciclo de vida ou contexto espazo-temporal. Isto é de especial preocupación cando as especies afectadas soportan importantes pesquerías con enormes beneficios socioeconómicos. En Galicia, as ameixas nativas Ruditapes decussatus (ameixa fina) e Venerupis corrugata (ameixa babosa), a introducida R. philippinarum (ameixa xaponesa) e o berberecho Cerastoderma edule representadan nos últimos anos, case o 80% do total das descargas de bivalvos e máis do 85% do valor comercial do total de bivalvos. Estes recursos de pesca son altamente variables, dependendo das condicións de cada banco marisqueiro (foz dos ríos, sedimentos, exposición...) e o tempo atmosférico. Principais motores de variabilidade son ondas de calor e as flutuacións na salinidade producidas por maiores descargas dos ríos polas choivas, resultando en taxas de mortalidade máis elevadas. Por exemplo, un episodio de mortalidades masivas de bivalvos ocorreu no outono-inverno 2000-2001, e impediu estes recursos de ser explotados duante un ano. Especiais condicións de choiva no inverno de 2013-14 causaron mortalidade moi grave da ameixa fina na Ría de Vigo, Ría de Arousa e Ría de Pontevedra. Con todo, o estrés ambiental non só provoca mortalidade a curto prazo, pois tamén pode ter efectos sub-letais nos individuos, reducindo o crecemento ou condición fisiolóxica e produción de descendencia, aumentando a vulnerabilidade á doenza ou predación, etc., con consecuencias para o recrutamento de xuvenís e reposición nos bancos marisqueiros. Debido ao aumento da explotación de especies non nativas como R. philippinarum é importante saber cómo eventos extremos afectan especies introducidas en comparación coas nativas. Evidencias na literatura e as nosas experiencias en curso suxiren que as especies introducidas poden ser máis resistentes. Nesta tese, eventos extremos serán relacionados con procesos meteorolóxicos para que os modelos de previsión poidan servir como unha ferramenta de alerta precoz para a xestión do recurso. Estas previsións mecanicistas, incorporando datos fisiolóxicos e ecolóxicos de experimentos no laboratorio e no campo, van máis lonxe dos modelos de nicho tradicionais e será moito máis doado que proporcionen estimacións de risco de eventos extremos máis robustas que outros métodos. A hipótese xeral é que os impactos de eventos extremos e do cambio climático serán máis fortes para as especies do intermareal medio que para as especies do intermareal inferior e no interior que na parte exterior do rías; tamén que o estrés debido a estes eventos será máis forte en especies nativas que nas introducidas. Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. CTM2014-51935-R Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. BES-2015-074211 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2017/46 Xunta de Galicia-FEDER | Ref. GRC2013-004 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) | Ref. NNX11AP77G National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) | Ref. 80NSSC20K0074 US National Science Foundation | Ref. OCE1129401

The overall objective of the PhD proposal is to study current and future adaptation to climate change in an international fishery. International fisheries are impacted by climate change due to changes in species distribution, affecting fishing agreements that regulate access to the resource. However, little is known about the implications of climate change on the fisheries social-ecological system (SES), or how the system can better adapt. In order to understand adaptation in international fisheries, a traditional and profitable fishery targeting highly migratory species has been selected: the Basque industrial tropical tuna fishery. Shifts in tropical tunas distribution will be targeted as the main climate change impact in the fishery, while stakeholder perceptions on adaptation measures to these changes will inform future necessary arrangements. El objetivo general de la propuesta de doctorado es estudiar la adaptación actual y futura al cambio climático en una pesquería internacional. Las pesquerías internacionales están siendo afectadas por el cambio climático mediante cambios en la distribución de las especies objetivo, lo que podría afectar a los acuerdos de pesca que regulan el acceso a los recursos. Sin embargo, poco se sabe acerca de las implicaciones del cambio climático en los sistemas socio-ecológicos pesqueros (SES) y de cómo éstos podrían adaptarse mejor a los cambios. Con el fin de comprender la adaptación en las pesquerías internacionales, se ha seleccionado una pesquería tradicional y rentable de extracción de especies altamente migratorias como caso de estudio: la pesquería industrial de túnidos tropicales del País Vasco. Los cambios de distribución de los túnidos tropicales serán tratados como el principal impacto del cambio climático en la pesquería y las percepciones de las partes interesadas sobre las medidas de adaptación a estos cambios servirán para informar futuras acuerdos de pesca necesarios. O obxectivo xeral da proposta de doutoramento é estudar a adaptación actual e futura ao cambio climático nun sistema pesqueiro internacional. A pesca internacional está afectada polo cambio climático a través de cambios na distribución das especies obxetivo, o que podería afectar aos acordos de pesca internacionais que rexen o acceso aos recursos. Con todo, pouco se sabe sobre as implicacións do cambio climático nos sistemas socio-ecolóxicos pesqueiros (SES), ou sobre cómo poden adaptarse mellor ao cambio climático. Co fin de comprender a adaptación na pesca internacional, se selecciona para este traballo unha pesca tradicional e rendible de extración de grandes peixes migradores como caso de estudo: a pesca industrial do atún tropical no País Vasco. Os cambios na distribución de atún tropical serán tratados como o principal impacto do cambio climático sobre a actividade pesqueira e se medirán as percepcións dos axentes implicados na pesquería, sobre as medidas para adaptarse a estes cambios. Todo esto finalmente servirá para informar futuros acordos internacionais de pesca necesarios.

El clima influye profundamente en una gran variedad de procesos ecológicos y, consecuentemente, en los patrones espaciales y temporales de la abundancia de las poblaciones y especies (Cushing, 1982). En el Atlántico Norte, las poblaciones de sardina (Sardina pilchardus), boquerón (Engraulis encrasicolus) y merluza (Merluccius merluccius), son de gran importancia socioeconómica, por lo que han sido objeto de innumerables estudios durante décadas. Sin embargo, no es hasta hace relativamente poco que los factores climáticos a distintas escalas se han empezado a tener en cuenta. Dada la mayor facilidad para el acceso y tratamiento de bases de datos (tanto climáticos como de stocks de especies) que existe hoy día así como la mayor extensión de éstas, el reto del presente proyecto es relacionar el conocimiento que de forma dispersa existe hasta el momento sobre diferentes especies y ecosistemas locales y avanzar en el entendimiento de cómo la variabilidad climática a diferentes escalas afecta a los patrones ecológicos. O clima inflúe profundamente nunha gran variedade de procesos ecolóxicos e, consecuentemente, nos patróns espaciais e temporais da abundancia das poboacións e especies (Cushing, 1982). No Atlántico Norte, as poboacións de sardiña (Sardina pilchardus), boquerón (Engraulis encrasicolus) e pescada (Merluccius merluccius), son de gran importancia socioeconómica, polo que foron obxecto de innumerables estudos durante décadas. Con todo, non é ata fai relativamente pouco que os factores climáticos a distintas escalas empezáronse a ter en conta. Dada a maior facilidade para o acceso e tratamento de bases de datos (tanto climáticos como de stocks de especies) que existe hoxe día así como a maior extensión destas, o reto do presente proxecto é relacionar o coñecemento que de forma dispersa existe ata o momento sobre diferentes especies e ecosistemas locais e avanzar no entendemento de como a variabilidade climática a diferentes escalas afecta os patróns ecolóxicos. Climate profoundly influences a variety of ecological processes and, consequently, the spatial and temporal patterns of populations and species abundance (Cushing, 1982). In the North Atlantic, populations of sardine (Sardina pilchardus), anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and hake (Merluccius merluccius), are of great socioeconomic importance, and have been the subject of countless studies for decades. However, it was not until relatively recently that climatic factors at different scales have begun to be considered. Given the greater ease of access and treatment of databases (climatic and stocks of species) that exists today and the most extensive of these, the challenge of this project is to relate the knowledge that exists until time on local species and ecosystems and advance the understanding of how climate variability at different scales affects the ecological patterns.

Extreme heat events impact people and ecosystems across the globe, and they are becoming more frequent and intense in a warming climate. Responses to heat span sectors and geographic boundaries. Prior research has documented technologies or options that can be deployed to manage extreme heat and examples of how individuals, communities, governments, and other stakeholder groups are adapting to heat. However, a comprehensive understanding of the current state of implemented heat adaptations—where, why, how, and to what extent they are occurring—has not been established. Here, we combine data from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative with a heat-specific systematic review to analyze the global extent and diversity of documented heat adaptation actions (n = 301 peer-reviewed articles). Data from 98 countries suggest that documented heat adaptations fundamentally differ by geographic region and national income. In high-income, developed countries, heat is overwhelmingly treated as a health issue, particularly in urban areas. However, in low and middle income, developing countries, heat adaptations focus on agricultural and livelihood-based impacts, primarily considering heat as a compound hazard with drought and other hydrological hazards. 63% of the heat-adaptation articles feature individuals or communities autonomously adapting, highlighting how responses to date have largely consisted of coping strategies. The current global status of responses to intensifying extreme heat, largely autonomous and incremental yet widespread, establishes a foundation for informed decision making as heat impacts around the world continue to increase.

The extratropical cyclones that originate in the North Atlantic and propagate towards Europe are one of the major natural hazards in mid-latitudes. In December 2019, three consecutive extratropical cyclones named Daniel, Elsa, and Fabien affected Portugal. In this study, the synoptic and upper-level dynamic conditions associated with these systems during their impact in mainland Portugal are evaluated. The persistent intense zonal flow that crossed the entire Atlantic revealed by the integrated vapor transport and the vertically integrated moisture flux favored these hydro-meteorological systems. The patterns of mean sea level pressure, geopotential, potential vorticity, total column water, and convective available potential energy were used to characterize the influence of every system over mainland Portugal. A cluster analysis of monthly precipitation permitted the classification of the country into four main regions named the Northwest, Centre West, Northeast and Centre East, and South region on which the analysis was focused. The three storms affected every region on consecutive days by the middle of December, producing extreme precipitation events and significant effects on the accumulated rainfall and runoff, particularly in the Northwest, Centre West, Northeast and Centre East regions. As consequence, multiple incidences of damage were reported along mainland Portugal. However, an assessment of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) on time scales of 1, 3, 6, and 12 months revealed a positive impact of rainfall increase on the attenuation of short and long term accumulated drought conditions, particularly in the center and north regions. Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. UIDB/50019/2020–IDL Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. PTDC/CTAMET/29233/2017 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2017/64-GRC; Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España) | Ref. RTI2018-095772-B-I00 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B 2019/070 Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B 2018/062 Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portugal) | Ref. CEECIND / 00027/2017