Search

为推动我国木本油料高质量发展，更好地践行大食物观，从供给、需求和国际贸易3个方面对2001—2021年间我国木本油料发展情况进行定量分析，对木本油料未来发展潜力和现实约束进行系统分析，并提出高质量发展的对策建议。我国木本油料产业发展迅速，总产量、总产值不断提高，在国家粮油安全中的作用不断增强。利好政策持续释放、种植面积有望扩大、单产提升潜力较大以及市场环境不断改善等，是我国木本油料高质量发展的潜力所在。但产业政策扶持力度不够、种植成本攀升、生产效率低下、科技服务保障支撑不足、产业链延伸不足、市场占有率低等问题，成为阻碍我国木本油料高质量发展的瓶颈。基于此，提出持续优化产业发展格局、积极培育新型经营主体、大力推动科技创新与成果转化、加强品牌建设等建议。In order to promote the high-quality development of woody oilseeds in China and better practice the perspective of all-encompassing approach to food, the development of woody oilseeds in China from three aspects including supply, demand and international trade was quantitatively analyzed from 2001 to 2021, the future development potential and realistic constraints of woody oilseeds were systematically analyzed, and countermeasures for the high-quality development were put forward. The woody oilseeds industry in China developed rapidly, with a continuous increase in total output and total output value, and its role in national grain and oil security was constantly strengthened. The continuous release of favorable policies, the expected expansion of planting area, the great potential for per unit yield improvement, and the continuous improvement of market environment were the potential for high-quality development of woody oilseeds in China. However, problems such as insufficient support from industrial policies, rising planting costs, low production efficiency, insufficient support for science and technology service guarantee, insufficient extension of the industrial chain and low market share had become bottlenecks that hindering the high-quality development of woody oilseeds in China. Based on this, suggestions were proposed, such as continuously optimizing the industrial development pattern, actively cultivating new business entities, vigorously promoting scientific and technological innovation and achievement transformation, and strengthening brand building.

2007—2021年我国油料生产实现“十四连丰”，对于保障国家粮油安全意义重大。为进一步探究油料增产格局及背后成因，推动我国油料生产提质增效，基于2007—2021年大豆、油菜籽、花生三大油料的种植面积、产量、单产等基础数据，从全国和分省两个角度，运用对数平均迪氏分解（LMDI）模型定量分析了2007—2021年我国油料增产状况及其区域差异，并对我国主要油料增产的地域格局及其贡献因素做了进一步研究。结果表明：大豆、油菜籽、花生三大油料是我国油料“十四连丰”的主导因素，三大油料对油料增产的贡献率达到96.3%；三大油料中，花生对油料增产的贡献最为显著，无论是增产幅度、增产贡献率还是年均增产量，花生均处于领先地位；单产提高对油料增产的贡献大于种植面积扩大带来的贡献；三大油料中，大豆增产主要是依靠单产水平的提高，而油菜籽和花生的增产同时依靠种植面积的扩大和单产水平的提高；2007—2021年，全国仅17个省份出现油料增产现象，且增产超过200万t和增幅达到超速增产水平的省份分别只占9.7%和35.5%。 综上，充分高效利用和开发现有土地资源、不断提升三大主要油料单产水平是破解我国油料可持续发展难题的关键。The 14th consecutive bumper harvest of oilseed production in China from 2007 to 2021 is of great significance to the country′s grain and oil security. In order to further explore the pattern and underlying causes of increased oilseed production, and promote the improvement of quality and efficiency in China′s oilseed production, based on basic data from 2007 to 2021 on the planting area, yield and yield per unit area of the three major oilseed crops, soybean, rapeseed and peanut, the logarithmic mean dirichlet index decomposition (LMDI) model was used to quantitatively analyze the increase of oilseed production from 2007 to 2021 and its regional differences from the national and provincial perspectives. The regional pattern and its contributing factors of the increase of main oilseed production were further studied. The results showed that soybean, rapeseed and peanut were the main factors for the 14th consecutive bumper harvest of oilseed production, and the contribution rate of the three oilseed crops to the increase of oilseed production was 96.3%, the contribution of peanut to the increase of oilseed production was the most significant, and peanut was in the leading position in terms of the increase of yield, contribution rate and annual average yield. The contribution of increasing yield per unit area to the increase of oilseed production was greater than that of expanding planting area. In the three oilseed crops, soybean production increase mainly relied on the increase of yield per unit area, while the production increase of rapeseed and peanut at the same time relied on the expansion of planting area and the increase of yield per unit area. From 2007-2021, oilseed production in only 17 provinces across the country increased, and the provinces with the production increase of more than 2 million tons, production increase reaching over increase only accounted for 9.7%, 35.5%, respectively. In summary, fully and efficiently utilizing and developing existing land resources, and continuously improving the lever of yield per unit area of the three major oilseed crops are the key to solve the problem of sustainable development of oilseed crops in China.

摘要：城镇居民食用植物油消费量变化趋势影响着城乡居民整体食用植物油消费走向，深入研究其变化趋势和影响因素，可以为我国制定科学合理的粮油供给安全战略和相关产业发展政策提供参考。基于2000—2020年我国城镇居民人均食用植物油消费量及其影响因素数据，从宏观角度出发，利用城市化率、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入、城镇食用植物油零售价格指数、消费习惯4个主要因素构建灰色GM（1，5）预测模型，并对2021—2025年城镇居民人均食用植物油消费量进行预测。结果表明：构建的模型平均相对误差绝对值为4.94%，满足模型预测要求；应用该模型进行预测发现，2021—2025年我国城镇居民人均食用植物油消费量恢复到10 kg以上，且呈小幅增长态势，叠加持续增长的城镇人口数量，我国油料油脂进口量将进一步增加。为此，提出了引导油脂消费结构调整、加强对食用油的质量安全监督、提高食用油利用效率和杜绝浪费等政策性建议。 The change trend of edible vegetable oil consumption of urban residents affects the overall consumption trend of edible vegetable oil of urban and rural residents. An in-depth study of its change trend and its influencing factors can provide a reference to China for formulating a scientific and reasonable grain and oil supply security strategy and related industrial development policies. Based on the datas of per capita edible vegetable oil consumption and influencing factors of Chinese urban residents from 2000 to 2020, a grey GM (1,5) prediction model was constructed from a macro perspective by using four main factors of urbanization rate, per capita income of urban households, urban edible vegetable oil retail price index and consumption habits, and the per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil by urban residents from 2021 to 2025 was predicted. The results showed that the absolute value of average relative error of the model constructed was 4.94%, which met the prediction requirements of the model. Applying this model for prediction, it was found that the per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil by urban residents in China would recover to over 10 kg from 2021 to 2025, with a slight growth trend. Coupled with the continuous growth of urban populations, China′s oilseed and oil imports would further increase. Therefore, policy recommendations was proposed, such as guiding the adjustment of oil consumption structure, strengthening quality and safety supervision of edible oil, improving the efficiency of edible oil utilization and eliminating waste.

为了及时调整我国棕榈油贸易政策，引导我国木本油料油脂产业发展，利用2000、2005、2010、2015年和2020年全球棕榈油贸易数据，采用社会网络分析法，探究了2000—2020年全球棕榈油贸易网络演变特征及其对我国食用油对外贸易政策的启示。结果表明：全球棕榈油贸易伙伴国家之间直接交易路径在不断缩短，贸易核心国家的数量相对稳定，核心地位相对稳固；作为核心地位最突出的5个棕榈油贸易枢纽国，中国、印度、荷兰是重要的进口国，马来西亚、印度尼西亚是重要的出口国，国际棕榈油贸易受主要出口国政策影响较大；我国棕榈油进口量在短期内不会出现大幅度波动，但仍存在较高的贸易风险；基于棕榈油贸易格局的集中趋势，我国植物油贸易与产业面临着挑战与机遇并存的局面。因此,提出积极开展包括棕榈油在内的植物油双边及多边贸易合作、鼓励农业企业走出国门、大力发展我国木本油料油脂产业等建议。 In order to adjust China′s palm oil trade policy in a timely manner and guide the development of China′s woody oilseed and oil industry, the data of global palm oil trade in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 were used to explore the evolution characteristics of global palm oil trade network from 2000 to 2020 and its implications for China′s foreign trade policy of edible oil by social network analysis method. The results showed that the direct trade path between global palm oil trading partner countries was shortening, the number of global palm oil trade core countries was relatively stable, and the core position was relatively stable. As the world′s five most prominent palm oil trade hubs, China, India and the Netherlands were important importers, while Malaysia and Indonesia were important exporters. International palm oil trade was greatly affected by the policies of major exporters. China′s palm oil imports would not fluctuate greatly in the short term, but there were still high trade risks. Based on the centralized trend of palm oil trade pattern, China′s vegetable oil trade and industry were facing both challenges and opportunities. It is suggested that bilateral and multilateral trade cooperation in vegetable oil including palm oil should be actively carried out, agricultural enterprises should be encouraged to go abroad, and domestic woody oilseed and oil industry should be vigorously developed.

产业内贸易对我国油料安全具有深远影响。为推动我国植物油料贸易和产业的健康发展，从总体和分类两个层面分别计算2011—2020年中国植物油料的Grubel-Lioyd指数、Bruelhart边际产业内贸易指数以及Thom & McDowell指数，分析我国植物油料贸易现状，并提出相应建议。结果表明：近年来我国植物油料贸易增量主要来自产业间贸易，植物油料的总体产业内贸易水平偏低；Thom & McDowell指数表明近年来我国植物油料产业内贸易主要来自垂直型产业内贸易。基于此现状，针对性地提出实施差异化的植物油料产业内贸易发展战略，建立植物油料贸易可持续发展的长效机制，培育具备国际竞争力的大型农企集团，提升植物油料风险管控能力等相关政策建议。Intra industry trade has a profound impact on the safety of oilseeds in China. To promote the healthy development of China′s vegetable oilseeds trade and industry, the Grubel-Lioyd index, Bruelhart marginal intra industry trade index and Thom & McDowell index of vegetable oilseeds from 2011 to 2020 were calculated respectively from the overall and classification levels, further the current situation of vegetable oilseeds trade in China were analyzed and corresponding suggestions were proposed. The results showed that the increase of China′s vegetable oilseeds trade in recent years mainly came from intra industry trade, and the overall intra industry trade level of vegetable oilseeds was low. Thom & McDowell index showed that in recent years, China′s intra industry trade of vegetable oilseeds mainly came from vertical intra industry trade. Based on this, relevant policy suggestions were put forward, such as implementing a differentiated intra industry trade development strategy for vegetable oilseeds, establishing a long-term mechanism for the sustainable development of vegetable oilseeds trade, cultivating large-scale agricultural enterprise groups with international competitiveness, and improving vegetable oilseeds risk management and control capabilities.

油料安全事关国计民生，保障油料有效供给是我国必须坚守的国家粮食安全底线。站在全球视角，对2011/2012—2020/2021年度我国油料供需形势、生产形势及市场形势进行分析，明确我国油料产业在生产、加工、贸易等方面面临的挑战，并针对性地提出了统一科学谋划与增强政策扶持精准度相结合，强化科技支撑与耕地资源保护相结合，提高农户油料种植收益与增强自然灾害抵御能力相结合，坚持大宗油料品牌建设与特色油料资源开发相结合，稳定当前农业合作伙伴关系与扩宽油料进口来源相结合，实施差异化市场监管与引导居民科学消费相结合等发展对策，以期为促进油料生产、保障植物油有效供给、降低植物油对外依存度，维护国家粮油安全提供参考。 Oilseed security is related to national economy and people′s livelihood, and ensuring the effective supply of oilseeds is the bottom line of national food security that China must adhere to. From a global perspective, the supply and demand situation, production situation and market situation of oilseeds in China for the period of 2011/2012-2020/2021 were analyzed, further the challenges faced by China′s oilseed industry in terms of production, processing and trade were clarified, and six development countermeasures ,including the combination of unifying scientific planning and enhancing the accuracy of policy support, the combination of strengthening scientific and technological support and protecting arable land resources, the combination of improving farmers′ income from oilseed planting and enhancing natural disaster resistance, the combination of insisting on the brand building of bulk oilseed and developing characteristic oilseed resource, the combination of stabilizing the current agricultural industry cooperative partnership and expanding sources of oilseed imports, and the combination of implementing differentiated market supervision and guiding residents′ scientific consumption,were put forward, in order to provide a reference for promoting oilseed production, ensuring effective supply of vegetable oil, reducing external dependence of vegetable oil and maintaining national food and oil security.

Copyright of Chinese Journal of Oil Crop Sciences is the property of Oil Crops Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Chinese Journal of Oil Crop Sciences is the property of Oil Crops Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Objective To investigate the change in the expression of 17-β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase 13 (HSD17B13) and mitofusin 2 (MFN2) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) tissue and its clinical significance, and to analyze target genes by bioinformatics methods. Methods Fifteen HCC patients who received surgical treatment in Fujian Provincial Hospital from September 2017 to March 2018 were enrolled. HCC and adjacent tissues were collected after surgery. Real-time PCR and Western blot were used to measure the change in the expression of HSD17B13 and MFN2 in HCC and adjacent tissues, and the clinical significance of such change was analyzed. The single cell sequencing database, the GTEx database, and The Cancer Genome Atlas database were used to analyze the expression of HSD17B13 and MFN2 in HCC tissue and different stages of HCC, as well as its correlation with overall survival of liver cancer. The correlation between the expression of HSD17B13 and MFN2 was also analyzed. For normally distributed continuous data, the t test was used for comparison between two groups, and an analysis of variance was used for comparison between multiple groups; for non-normally distributed continuous data, the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison between two groups, and the Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for comparison between multiple groups. The log-rank test was used to investigate the influence of variables on survival rate, and the Kaplan-Meier method was used for plotting the survival curve. A Pearson correlation analysis was used to investigate the relationship between the two variables. Results Real-time PCR and Western blot showed that compared with the adjacent tissue, the HCC tissue had significantly downregulated expression of HSD17B13 and MFN2 (PCR: t=-2.467 and-3.933, P=0.020 and 0.001; Western blot: t=-5.357 and -5.771, P=0.006 and 0.026). The bioinformatics analysis showed significantly downregulated expression of HSD17B13 in HCC tissue (P<0.05), and the expression of HSD17B13 decreased with the increase in the stage of HCC (F=3.220, P=0.023); low expression of HSD17B13 was associated with poor survival (risk ratio=0.630, P=0.011); in HCC tissue, the expression of MFN2 was positively correlated with that of HSD17B13 (r=0.190, P<0.001). Conclusion There is downregulated expression of MFN2 and HSD17B13 in liver cancer, and MFN2 and HSD17B13 may be potential tumor suppressor genes with clinical relevance. They may be involved in biological behaviors in the development and progression of liver cancer and may become useful molecular markers for liver cancer screening, clinical classification, and prognosis evaluation and effective targets for the treatment of liver cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To analyze the mutation of chymotrypsin C (CTRC) gene in patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP) in southwestern Han population and to explore the mechanism of CP pathogenesis in southwestern Han population from the genetic level. Methods Peripheral blood samples were collected from 108 patients with CP in the southwestern Han (CP group) and 150 healthy controls (control group). The nuclear DNA of white blood cells was extracted for CTRC gene exon sequencing. The sequencing results were compared online and CTRC gene mutation was analyzed. Further, a dominant genetic model was established and the correlation between two genetics and environment was statistically analyzed based on the clinical data. Results One case of c.611C > A heterozygous missense mutation, one case of c.703G >T heterozygous missense mutation and one case of c.736C >T heterozygous missense mutation were detected in the CTRC gene exon region of CP group, while no CTRC gene mutation was detected in the exon region of the control group. In addition, live single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci were found: c. 40 + 133C > A, c. 40 + 92T > A, c. 493 + 49C > C, c. 493 + 51C > A, and c. 793-137A > C, which were located in the intron region. The frequencies of the above sites in the CP group were 0, 12.96% , 19.44% , 7. 41% , and 16.67% , respectively ; the frequencies of the above sites in the control group were 2.67% , 5.33% , 7. 33% , 6.67% , and 16.00%. The frequencies of c. 40 + 133G > A, c. 493 +49G > C sites in the CP group were higher than those in the control group (all P < 0.05). The genotype frequency and allele frequency of c.40 + 133 G > A locus and c. 493 + 49G > C locus in the CP group were both higher as compared with those of the control group (P < 0.05 or P <0.01). Under the dominant model, the CP group and the control group showed an increased risk of CP for the population with e.40 + 133G > A site or e.493 +49G >C site changes (all P<0.05). In the presence of smoking factors, there was a statistically significant difference in the distribution of c.493 +49G >C sites (OR = 4.667 , 95% CP. 1.341-16.239, P <0.05). Conclusion The e.611G>A, c.703G>T, and c.736C >T heterozygous missense mutations may lie related to the pathogenesis of CP in the southwestern Han population, SNP loci c.40 + 133G > A and c.493 + 49G >C may he the CP susceptibility sites, and the smokers with a loci c.493 +49G >C change are prone to CP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Shandong Medical Journal is the property of Shandong Medical Health Newspapers and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Clinical Hepatology / Linchuang Gandanbing Zazhi is the property of Journal of Clinical Hepatology and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Objective To analyze the MRCP features of mucobilia and to assess the value of MRCP in treatment planning of mucobilia..Methods The clinical records and MRCP of 11 patients with pathologically confirmed mucobilia were retrospectively analyzed. MRCP features including asymmetric intra-hepatic bile duct dilatation,.interruption of the extra-hepatic bile duct, hypointense bile duct lesion, intra-and extrahepatic bile duct stone were compared between 11 patients (5 men and 6 women) with mucobilia and 20 patients with cholelithiasis and cholangitisusing the Fisher exact test. Results Fluctuating jaundice with recurrent episodes of fever and right upper quadrant abdominal pain was the most common manifestation of mucobilia. There was history of previous biliary tract surgery in 8 patients. The frequency of asymmetric intra-hepatic bile duct dilatation (11, 5), interrupted bile duct (0, 8), and hypointense bile duct lesion (8, 3) in mucobilia and gallstone cholangitis, respectively was significantly different (P=0.000, 0.045, 0.005). Intra- and extra-hepatic bile duct stone was detected in 8/11patients with mucobilia, not significantly different from the 16/20 patients with gallstone cholangitis (P=0.117). All patients with mucobilia underwent surgery including left hepatectomy for tumors in the proximal left lateral segmental duct (2), left hepatectomy with extra-hepatic bile duct resection and Roux-en-Y anastomosis for tumors in the bifurcation of left lateral and medial segmental ducts (2), or palliative biliary drainage for tumors in the left proximal hepatic duct near the porta hepatis (7). Conclusion The MRCP signs of mucobilia, mainly include asymmetric intra-hepatic bile duct dilatation, no sudden interruption of the extra-hepatic bile duct, signal of Bile duct lesion is relatively low. MRCP might be an effective means for the assessment of lesion extension and is helpful for selection of operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Clinical Hepatology / Linchuang Gandanbing Zazhi is the property of Journal of Clinical Hepatology and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

我国是油料进口与消费大国，油料自给率低、严重依赖进口。当前地缘政治矛盾的加剧与贸易政策的不确定性令国际农产品市场出现动荡，我国油料贸易面临着错综复杂的国际环境。在油料进口量持续增加、对外依存度不断提高的背景下，分析目前我国油料进口贸易的总量特征，以及以大豆、油菜籽、花生为代表的大宗油料和以芝麻、葵花籽、亚麻籽为代表的特色油料的产品结构特征与国别特征，并进一步对大宗油料商品和特色油料商品的进口贸易特征及未来发展趋势作出判断。针对当前我国油料供给面临的国内外约束与风险，应大幅提升油料增产保供能力，积极拓展油料进口渠道，减少对贸易争端国的进口依存度，建立和完善油料安全预警系统与应急机制，从而促进我国油料产业的高质量发展，保障油料安全。China is a big importer and consumer of oilseeds, but the self-sufficiency rate of oilseeds is low and relies heavily on imports. At present, the aggravation of the geopolitical contradictions and the uncertainty of the trade policy make the international agricultural products market turbulent, and the oilseeds trade of China is facing a complex international environment. Under the background of increasing oilseeds import volume and increasing dependence on foreign countries, the characteristics of total volume of oilseeds import trade at present, the product structure characteristics and country characteristics of bulk oilseeds represented by soybean, rapeseed and peanut, and characteristic oilseeds represented by sesame, sunflower seed and flaxseed were analyzed. Furthermore, the import trade characteristics and future development trend of bulk oilseeds and characteristic oilseeds were judged respectively. In view of the current domestic and foreign constraints and risks of oilseeds supply, we should greatly improve the capacity of oilseeds production increase and supply assurance, actively expand oilseeds import channels, reduce the dependence on imports from countries with trade disputes, establish and perfect oilseeds safety early warning system and emergency mechanism, so as to promote the high-quality development of oilseeds industry and ensure oilseeds safety.

为促进油茶产业高质量发展，丰富我国食用植物油供给体系，根据2010—2020年的数据，采用综合比较优势法分析我国16个油茶生产区域的比较优势，对其影响因素进行研究，并提出相应的提质增产的建议。结果表明：2010—2020年，中国油茶生产规模呈现出东西部增长，中部下降的特征；中国16个油茶生产区域生产规模优势总体波动较小，效率优势呈先降后升趋势，效益优势、综合比较优势总体呈下跌状态。根据油茶生产区域的规模、效率、效益优势情况，将16个油茶生产区域划分为“三高省区”“规模优势省区”“效率优势省区”等7种类型，其中湖南、江西、浙江属于“三高省区”，广东、广西、福建属于“规模优势和效率优势双高省区”，云南属于“规模优势省区”，湖北、海南、江苏属于“效率优势和效益优势双高省区”，贵州、陕西属于“效率优势省区”，安徽属于“效益优势省区”，四川、重庆、河南属于“三低省区”。各省区油茶生产受自然资源禀赋、科技水平、市场、政策等因素影响，建议通过优化种植区域布局、完善油茶市场体制、加速新品种研发、提高机械化程度等措施进一步缩小油茶生产区域间的优势差异。In order to promote the high-quality development of the Camellia oleifera industry and enrich China′s edible vegetable oil supply system, according to data from 2010 to 2020, the comparative advantage of 16 Camellia oleifera production areas in China was analyzed using the comprehensive comparative advantage method, and the influencing factors were studied. Corresponding suggestions to improve quality and increase production were proposed. The results showed that from 2010 to 2020, the production of Camellia oleifera in China showed the characteristics of "increasing in the East and West", "decreasing in the Middle". The scale advantage of China′s 16 Camellia oleifera production areas fluctuated slightly in general, the efficiency advantage first decreased and then increased, and the benefit advantage and comprehensive advantage generally declined. According to the scale, efficiency and benefit advantages of Camellia oleifera production areas, the 16 Camellia oleifera production provinces(regions) were divided into seven types, in which Hunan, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang belonged to the "Three High Provinces"; Guangdong, Guangxi, and Fujian belonged to the "Dual High Provinces with Scale and Efficiency Advantages"; Yunnan belonged to the "Scale Advantage Province"; Hubei, Hainan, and Jiangsu belonged to the "Dual High Provinces with Efficiency and Benefit Advantages"; Guizhou and Shaanxi belonged to the "Efficiency Advantage Province"; Anhui belonged to the "Benefit Advantage Province"; Sichuan, Chongqing, and Henan belonged to the "Three Low Provinces". The production in the Camellia oleifera was influenced by natural resource endowment, technological level, market factors, and policy factors. The advantageous differences between production areas can be reduced by optimizing the layout of planting areas, improving the Camellia oleifera market system, accelerating the development of new varieties, and improving the degree of mechanization.

近年来，伴随着我国食用植物油自给率的持续走低，提高我国本土食用植物油料的供给、保障国家食用油安全上升为国家战略。通过梳理前人研究和官方信息，整理出2000—2019年我国传统八大食用植物油料的产量数据，并结合相关研究计算得出对应历年食用植物油本土供应量，同时建立Holt双参数线性指数平滑模型对我国本土食用植物油料和油脂的总供给进行预测，结合国家食用植物油发展规划，进一步分析当前制约我国食用植物油发展的因素，并提出针对性建议，以期为国家制定食用植物油料油脂发展规划，提高我国食用油自给率提供数据参考和技术支持。In recent years, with the continuous decline in the self-sufficiency rate of edible vegetable oil, it has become a national strategy to improve the supply of domestic edible vegetable oilseeds and ensure the safety of national edible oil. By combing previous studies and official information, the output data of China’s eight traditional edible vegetable oilseeds from 2000 to 2019 were sorted out, and the local supply of edible vegetable oils over the years in combination with relevant studies was calculated, while a Holt two parameters linear exponential smoothing model was established to predict the total supply of domestic edible vegetable oilseeds and oils. Combined with the national edible vegetable oil development plan, the factors restricting the development of edible vegetable oil in China were further analyzed, and targeted suggestions were put forward. It is expected to provide data reference and technical support for the state to formulate the development plan of edible vegetable oil and improve the self-sufficiency rate of edible oil in China.

粮油安全事关国计民生，大力发展木本油料产业、提升木本油总供给是提高我国食用油自给率、保障国家粮油安全的最佳选择。以油茶籽、核桃、油橄榄3种主要木本油料为例，利用三者2000—2019年的产量数据及前人研究进行测算，得出油茶籽油、核桃油、橄榄油3种主要木本油的同期供给量，建立ARIMA模型对我国这3种主要木本油料及木本油的未来供给进行预测。结合预测结果和国家既定发展目标，从我国木本油料产业存在缺乏优秀人才，科技支撑不足，产业结构不合理，生产加工能力弱，资金投入有限，宣传力度不足等主要问题出发，提出强化科技支撑，做好科学规划，加大政策支持，增加宣传力度等建议，以期为我国政府进行科学宏观调控、推动木本油料产业高质量发展提供数据参考与技术支持。 Grain and oil security is related to the national economy and people′s livelihood. Vigorously developing the woody oilseed industry and improving the total supply of woody oil are the best choice to improve the self-sufficiency rate of edible oil and ensure the national grain and oil security. Taking oil-tea camellia seed, walnut and olive as an example, the supply of oil-tea camellia seed oil, walnut oil and olive oil in the same period was calculated by using their production data from 2000 to 2019 and previous studies, and ARIMA model was established to predict the future supply of the three main woody oilseed and woody oil in China. Combining with the forecast results and the national development goals, starting from the lack of excellent talents, insufficient scientific and technological support in China′s woody oilseed industry, irrational industrial structure, weak production and processing capacity, limited investment and insufficient publicity, some suggestions were put forward, such as strengthening the support of science and technology, doing a good job in scientific planning, increasing policy support and increasing publicity, so as to provide data reference and technical support for our government to carry out scientific macro-control and promote the high-quality development of woody oilseed industry in the future.

为了研究我国农村居民食用植物油消费的影响因素，利用1982—2020年我国农村居民人均食用植物油消费量、农村居民收入、城市化水平等宏观经济数据，构建协整模型和误差修正模型，分析多种因素对我国农村居民人均食用植物油消费量的长期和短期影响，并就消费量的四段异常波动进行成因分析。结果表明：我国农村居民人均食用植物油消费量与农村居民收入、城市化水平、消费习惯之间存在协整关系；协整模型中城市化水平的弹性系数为0.30，农村居民收入的弹性系数为0.11，消费习惯的弹性系数在0.70以上；误差修正模型中只有消费习惯通过t检验，其弹性系数在1.1以上；突发事件是造成农村居民人均食用植物油消费量短期剧烈波动的主要原因，但这又会随着经济社会的稳定和消费习惯的黏性而逐渐回归正常。长期来看，城市化进程中农村居民消费习惯的改善和收入的提高对其食用植物油消费具有明显促进作用；短期来看，消费量的变动主要受消费习惯影响，而与城市化水平和农村居民收入的相关性不强。基于上述结论，就当前农村地区食用油摄入过量问题，提出注重城市化建设质量、加快乡村振兴实施步伐、引导农村居民形成健康消费习惯的建议。 In order to study the influencing factors of rural residents′ edible vegetable oil consumption in China, per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil of rural residents, rural residents′ income, urbanization level and other macroeconomic data from 1982 to 2020 in China were used to built the co-integration model and error correction model to analyze the long-term and short-term effects of the various factors on per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil of rural residents in China. In addition, the causes of four abnormal fluctuations in consumption were analyzed. The results showed that there was a co-integration relationship between per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil of rural residents and rural residents′ income, urbanization level, consumption habits. In the co-integration model, the elasticity coefficient of urbanization level was 0.30, the elasticity coefficient of rural residents′ income was 0.11, and the elasticity coefficient of consumption habits was above 0.70. In the error correction model, only consumption habits passed the t-test, and its elasticity coefficient was above 1.1. In addition, the analysis of causes indicated that emergencies were the main reason for the short-term drastic fluctuations in per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil of rural residents, which would gradually return to normal with the stability of economic society and the stickiness of consumption habits. In the long run, the improvement of consumption habits and income of rural residents in the process of urbanization could significantly promote their consumption of edible vegetable oil. In the short term, the change of consumption was mainly influenced by consumption habits, but not strongly correlated with urbanization level and rural residents′ income. Based on the above conclusions, in view of the problem of excessive edible oil intake in rural areas, suggestions were put forward to pay attention to the quality of urbanization construction, accelerate the implementation of rural revitalization, and guide rural residents to form healthy consumption habits.