全球棕榈油贸易格局演变及政策启示Evolution of global palm oil trade pattern and policy implications

为了及时调整我国棕榈油贸易政策，引导我国木本油料油脂产业发展，利用2000、2005、2010、2015年和2020年全球棕榈油贸易数据，采用社会网络分析法，探究了2000—2020年全球棕榈油贸易网络演变特征及其对我国食用油对外贸易政策的启示。结果表明：全球棕榈油贸易伙伴国家之间直接交易路径在不断缩短，贸易核心国家的数量相对稳定，核心地位相对稳固；作为核心地位最突出的5个棕榈油贸易枢纽国，中国、印度、荷兰是重要的进口国，马来西亚、印度尼西亚是重要的出口国，国际棕榈油贸易受主要出口国政策影响较大；我国棕榈油进口量在短期内不会出现大幅度波动，但仍存在较高的贸易风险；基于棕榈油贸易格局的集中趋势，我国植物油贸易与产业面临着挑战与机遇并存的局面。因此,提出积极开展包括棕榈油在内的植物油双边及多边贸易合作、鼓励农业企业走出国门、大力发展我国木本油料油脂产业等建议。 In order to adjust China′s palm oil trade policy in a timely manner and guide the development of China′s woody oilseed and oil industry, the data of global palm oil trade in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 were used to explore the evolution characteristics of global palm oil trade network from 2000 to 2020 and its implications for China′s foreign trade policy of edible oil by social network analysis method. The results showed that the direct trade path between global palm oil trading partner countries was shortening, the number of global palm oil trade core countries was relatively stable, and the core position was relatively stable. As the world′s five most prominent palm oil trade hubs, China, India and the Netherlands were important importers, while Malaysia and Indonesia were important exporters. International palm oil trade was greatly affected by the policies of major exporters. China′s palm oil imports would not fluctuate greatly in the short term, but there were still high trade risks. Based on the centralized trend of palm oil trade pattern, China′s vegetable oil trade and industry were facing both challenges and opportunities. It is suggested that bilateral and multilateral trade cooperation in vegetable oil including palm oil should be actively carried out, agricultural enterprises should be encouraged to go abroad, and domestic woody oilseed and oil industry should be vigorously developed.