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This article investigates whether campaign speeches during the US presidential elections can help predict foreign policy behavior. We use speeches made by Donald J. Trump during his bid for president in 2016. We compare the analysis from 2016 with his actual foreign policy decisions during his tenure, 2017-2020. Operational code analysis and leadership traits analysis approaches are used to analyze candidate Trump’s foreign policy beliefs and strategies associated with them. We use Profiler Plus software to conduct content analysis which produces OCA and LTA results. We use three separate datasets to analyze Trump’s beliefs and traits focusing on his general foreign policy speeches, the MENA region, and a third one only about Islamic State and Syria. Our results show that Trump’s profile indicates a foreign policy orientation that avoids involvement in affairs that are perceived as beyond immediate interests. The consistency between his beliefs and traits during the 2016 campaign and his actual foreign policy behavior leads us to conclude that individual level analysis, and specifically OCA and LTA approaches, are useful tools to analyze, explain and predict foreign policy.

What determines the consequences of economic sanctions? Is there a common explanation for these consequences? This article provides a comprehensive review of the fragmented literature focusing on the consequences of sanctions. We critically discuss the complex relationships between types of sanctions and sanction senders and their targets, as well as the structural factors that account for the specific consequences of different sanction cases. A discussion on the thematic, methodological, and theoretical shortcomings of the existing literature on sanction consequences follows. We argue that a “common approach” to sanction consequences research should be framed within the framework of international interdependence. We also present several nascent trends and propose new directions for sanction researchers and other disciplines. ¿Qué determina las consecuencias de las sanciones económicas? ¿Existe una explicación común para estas consecuencias? Este artículo proporciona un análisis completo de la literatura fragmentada centrándose en las consecuencias de las sanciones. Tratamos de manera crítica las relaciones complejas entre los tipos de sanciones y los responsables de imponerlas y los receptores, así como los factores estructurales que explican las consecuencias específicas de los diferentes casos de sanciones. A continuación, se incluye un debate sobre los defectos temáticos, metodológicos y teóricos de la literatura existente sobre las consecuencias de las sanciones. Sostenemos que debería plantearse un “enfoque común” para la investigación sobre las consecuencias de las sanciones dentro del marco de la interdependencia internacional. También presentamos varias tendencias nacientes y proponemos nuevas orientaciones para los investigadores de sanciones y otras disciplinas. Par quoi les conséquences des sanctions économiques sont-elles déterminées? Existe-t-il une explication commune de ces conséquences? Cet article propose un examen complet de la littérature fragmentée se concentrant sur les conséquences des sanctions. Nous abordons d'un œil critique les relations complexes entre les types de sanctions et les émetteurs de sanctions et leurs cibles, ainsi que les facteurs structurels qui expliquent les conséquences spécifiques des différents cas de sanctions. Nous poursuivons par une discussion sur les lacunes thématiques, méthodologiques et théoriques de la littérature existante sur les conséquences des sanctions. Nous soutenons qu'une « approche commune » des recherches sur les conséquences des sanctions devrait s'inscrire dans le cadre de l'interdépendance internationale. Nous présentons également plusieurs tendances naissantes et nous proposons de nouvelles orientations pour les chercheurs spécialisés en sanctions et les autres disciplines.

Over the last twenty years since the introduction of automated coding schemes, research in foreign policy analysis (FPA) has made great advances. However, this automatization process is based on the analysis of verbal statements of leaders to create leadership profiles and has remained largely confined in terms of language. That is, the coding schemes can only parse English-language texts. This reduces both the quality and quantity of available data and limits the application of these leadership profiling techniques beyond the Anglosphere. Against this background, this forum offers five reports on the development of freely available coding schemes for either operational code analysis or leadership trait analysis for languages other than English (i.e., Turkish, Arabic, Spanish, German, and Persian).

The Cyprus problem is one of the most protracted and complex conflicts in the world. This article uses poliheuristic (PH) theory to analyze Turkey's decision-making during the Cyprus crises of 1964, 1967, and 1974. We utilize the PH model (Mintz 1993, 2004) and its method to systematically examine the decision-making process and outcomes during the three crises. We present primary evidence from governmental archives and secondary from media sources. The two hypotheses derived from the PH literature are supported by evidence. Results confirm Turkish decision-makers employed two-stage decision-making during each crisis. In the first stage, Turkish leaders followed the noncompensatory rule and eliminated options that could incur losses. In the second stage, their calculations were more in line with expected utility maximization. Implications of the case study in terms of PH model, foreign policy analysis, and international relations theory are discussed in the conclusion.

Despite the significance of the subject, studies on the foreign policy preferences of European populist radical right leaders are scarce except for a handful of examples. Are European populist radical right leaders more hostile than other world leaders or comparatively friendly? Do they use cooperative or conflictual strategies to achieve their political goals? What are the leadership types associated with their strategic orientations in international relations? Using the operational code construct in this empirical study, we answer these questions and depict the foreign policy belief systems of seven European populist radical right leaders. We test whether they share a common pattern in their foreign policy beliefs and whether their foreign policy belief systems are significantly different from the norming group of average world leaders. The results indicate that European populist radical right leaders lack a common pattern in terms of their foreign policy belief systems. While the average scores of the analysed European populist radical right leaders suggest that they are more conflictual in their world views, results also show that they employ instrumental approaches relatively similar to the average group of world leaders. This article illuminates the microfoundations of strategic behaviour in international relations and arrives at conclusions about the role of European populist radical right leaders in mainstream International Relations discussions, such as idealism versus realism. In this sense, the cognitivist research school complements and advances structural accounts of international relations by analysing leadership in world affairs.

Operational code analysis was originally designed to analyse the Soviet Politburo members’ political strategies and was codified by George and Walker, Schafer and Young. The approach has mostly been used to analyse individual world leaders, rather than specific political groups. In this article, I use the operational code construct to analyse political Islamists’ belief systems. I discuss issues regarding using the operational code construct in a non-Western political and cultural setting. The first difficulty of using the operational code analysis to analyse political Islamists’ strategies is the diversity of the movement, which led to a certain “level of analysis” problem. Second, whether to use computerised analysis or traditional hand coding was an important decision. Third, some procedures of the operational code research agenda, such as coding only transitive verbs, at times seemed to be in conflict with Turkish and Arabic sentence structures and verbs. Lastly, since the “Western” foreign policy analysis (FPA) theories are not frequently applied in the “global south” cases, I did not have a large body of literature to use while conducting my research. This article discusses the “boundedness” of the operational code analysis in analysis of non-Western individual leaders and political movements by discussion of these issues and others. © 2017 University of Kent.

WOS: 000390731800007 In the present work, structural and spectroscopic studies on 1-Methyl-2-(2'-hydroxy-4'-chlorophenyl) benzimidazole (1) and 1-Methyl-2-(2'-hydroxy-4'-methoxyphenyl)benzimidazole (2), have been carried out extensively by X-ray diffraction, HRMS, UV-Vis, FT-IR and H-1 and C-13 NMR spectroscopy. The crystal structure of both compounds is stabilized by O-H center dot center dot center dot N hydrogen bond and pi-pi interactions. Contrary to compound 1, the skeleton of compound 2 is considerably deviated from the planarity probably caused by intermolecular hydrogen bonding. The experimental results were compared to the theoretical ones, obtained at DFT level. Ground state geometry, electronic structure, vibrational and NMR spectra have been performed using the B3LYP functional with the 6-31 G(d,p) basis set. It was observed that the bond distances and angles in the both compounds were in good with those of the experiment. The energetic behaviors of the both compounds in methanol solvent were examined using by time-dependent DFT (TD-DFT) method by applying the polarizable continuum model (PCM). Isotropic chemical shifts (C-13 and H-1 NMR) were calculated using the gauge-invariant atomic orbital (GIAO) method. The HOMO and LUMO analyses were used to elucidate information regarding charge transfer within the molecule. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

This article provides an introduction to the theoretical underpinnings of expected utility and game theory approaches in IR studies. It goes on to explore their application to a specific research subject, international bargaining on Iran’s nuclear program. In this application, the article presents forecasts about Iran’s nuclear program using a game theoretic, bounded rationality model called the expected utility model (Bueno de Mesquita 2002). Three analyses were made in December 2005, September 2006 and March 2007. All three forecasts appear to be in line with real-life developments regarding the issue. The results show that Iran has been losing international support since the analyses started, and the last forecast suggests a pro-US position supported by all major international actors. Also, all three analyses suggest that Russian and Chinese support is vital to curb the Iranian nuclear program.

Chapter 9 The aim of this article is to examine the much-debated Turkish foreign policy preferences towards the Middle East during the Arab uprisings through a neoclassical realist framework. Turkey is a middle power in the international system and in order to grasp Turkey’s decision makers’ policy toward the region, it is important to comprehend human factors (perceptions, analysis, heuristics, analogies, cultural references) and variables of domestic politics (public opinion, electoral processes, border cities, Turkey’s own ethno-religious structure). If we only examine systemic factors, it is impossible to explain tensions derived from asymmetries between roles and motivations of a state prescribed by its leaders and its actual abilities. In this context, explanations regarding domestic politics and character of leadership become important. Examining how decision makers reach specific decisions through interpreting structural pressures and Turkey’s desire to “shape” the region with its own cognitive perspectives as well as how they synthesize this with the necessities of the domestic political cycles will provide an insight to understand decisions that seem unintelligible at first glance.

Political Islam and Islamist organizations have broadly gained strength across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the post-Cold War era. Following the Arab uprisings, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), generally viewed as the world’s largest and most influential Islamist organization, has shaped the wider landscape of MENA politics. This study examines MB leadership by comparing M. Morsi of Egypt, R. Ghannouchi of Tunisia, and K. Meshaal of Gaza as examples of Islamist leaders to explain their political belief systems and predict their foreign-policy behavior. We use the operational code approach, a content-analysis software and statistical tests to conduct the study. Results show that the three leaders’ foreign policy beliefs are analogous to the averages of world leaders. Results also partially support the hypothesis that their foreign-policy propensities are similar to each other. We conclude that despite the conventional portrayal of MB leadership, these leaders use negotiation and cooperation to settle their differences in foreign affairs, and the best way to approach them is to engage in a Rousseauvian assurance game that emphasizes international social cooperation. Results also suggest important implications in terms of mainstream international relations theories.

[No abstract available]

This paper analyses the current security challenges and military balance in the Black Sea region. The region, which has been going through vast political and economic transformations since the end of the Cold War, has become a platform for great power rivalry in the last few years. NATO expansion and Russian resistance to it, combined with the existing protracted conflicts, resulted in the first major regional war in a decade. The Russia-Georgia war of 2008 proved that regional actors still perceive the use of force as an acceptable tool of foreign policy. The changing military balance and abrupt increases in military expenditure from some actors suggest that the likelihood of other interstate conflicts in the region is high. Providing security and stability in the Black Sea seems more difficult than the pre-August 2008 war period.

Studies of foreign policy are as eclectic as the states in the global system. This paper attempts to provide a framework to facilitate the comparative study of foreign policy. Based on the original model by McGowan and Shapiro (1973), the expanded model here reflects advances in the understanding of the global system as well as the increased internationalization of domestic actors and events. The model will be illustrated by an analysis of Turkish foreign policy with Syria influenced by Turkey's own Kurdish citizenry. The first section of the study begins by presenting a particular ontological approach—a system-oriented model that facilitates understanding of the connection between domestic, or micro, variables and external, or macro, variables. Based on Bunge's (1996) concept of comprehensive “systemism”, the model facilitates incorporation of both international and domestic variables. The second part of the section presents a foreign policy model that meets the standards set by a system-oriented approach. This approach is increasingly relevant, as traditionally internal disturbances, such as ethnic conflicts, become internationalized. The second section of the paper presents Turkish-Syrian relations concerning the Kurds to illustrate the potential of the model and its variables. In the third section, this case is used to evaluate the explanatory power of the model. The conclusion provides overall generalizations and implications for further research and policy. We have chosen to illustrate the model by exploring the relationship between Turkey's Kurdish citizenry with Turkish-Syrian foreign policy. As will be shown, internal relations between Turkish-Kurds and the national government in Ankara have had a direct influence on the relationship between Turkey and Syria. Both states have, at times, centered their foreign policy decisions on this sometimes violent issue. ### Systemism Internationalization of domestic events has become a focus of foreign policy analysis studies. Ethnic conflicts provide numerous examples of this phenomenon (Carment …

Aygun, Muhittin/0000-0001-9670-9062; Aygun, Muhittin/0000-0001-9670-9062 WOS: 000364726700002 1-Methy1-2-(2'-hydroxyphenyl)benzimidazole (1) and 1-Methy1-2-(2'-hydroxy-4'-methylphenyl)benzimidazole (2) compounds have been synthesized and characterized by XRD, IE-MS, FT-IR, UV Vis and H-1, C-13 NMR techniques. The crystal structure of both compounds is stabilized with very strong O-H center dot center dot center dot N hydrogen-bond and pi-pi interactions. In the compound 1, an infinite chain structure with a trans-zigzag type was formed along the crystallographic 11011 direction. Quantum mechanical calculations of energies, geometries, vibrational wavenumbers, NMR and electronic transitions were carried out by DFT using B3LYP functional combined with 6.31G(d,p) basis set. Calculated bond lengths, bond angles and dihedral angles were only slightly different from the experimental ones. The vibrational study was interpreted by means of potential energy distribution (PED). The electronic absorption spectra of the both compounds were predicted by using the time-dependent DFT methods and good agreement was found between the computational and the experimental values. The chemical shifts (H-1 and (1)3C NMR) and isotropic shielding values were calculated by using the gauge-invariant atomic orbital (GIAO) method. The analyses of HOMO and LUMO have been used to explain the charge transfer within the molecule. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ethnic conflicts with a strong religious component do not have merely domestic or foreign causes and consequences. As a result, internationalization of ethnic conflict has become an important subject of inquiry both in terms of pure research and policy-oriented studies. This article presents a case study of Indian-Pakistani relations over Kashmir, used to evaluate the role of religion and the explanatory power of the approach presented here. The aim of the study is to apply a foreign policy approach that simultaneously incorporates domestic and external factors in an analysis of how and in what ways religious elements of the Kashmir question affect India's foreign policy. The approach, an application of “systemism,” contributes to current developments in the realist school of international relations through its emphasis on the need to look at both international and state levels in combination. Earlier applications of realism, as both neotraditional and structural realism clearly demonstrate, tend...

This essay evaluates the English School—a prominent approach to the study of international relations—as a “research enterprise” ([James 2002][1]). Our exploration begins with an introduction of a “continuum of aggregation” that conveys a given research enterprise, such as the English School, at different conceptual levels. The English School's axioms along with its negative and positive heuristics are identified and evaluated based on the classics and more recent works from Wight, Bull, and others. Conclusions and prospects for further development of the English School complete the review. [1]: #ref-28

Son dönemde yaşanan Arap ayaklanmaları bölgenin birçok aktörünü Ortadoğu politikalarınıgözden geçirmeye zorlamıştır. Devletlerin dış politikalarının yönetici elitlerin dış politikarol tasavvurları tarafından şekillendirildiği varsayımına dayanan rol kuramı, aktörlerindış politika davranışlarındaki değişimleri açıklamak için uygun bir çerçeve sunmaktadır. Bumakale, 2010’da başlayan Arap ayaklanmalarının öncesi ve sonrasında, Ortadoğu ve KuzeyAfrika bölgelerinde kullanılan Türk dış politikası rollerinin analizini yapmaktadır. Bu çalışmaTürkiye’nin Arap ayaklanmaları sonrasında bölgede yumuşak güç üzerine kurulu rollere olanvurgusunu değiştirip, materyal kapasite gerektiren daha sert rolleri ön plana çıkardığını iddiaetmektedir. Çalışmanın son bölümünde uluslararası politika kuramları üzerinden bu değişiminne anlama geldiği tartışılmaktadır.&nbsp, Middle Eastern politics. Role theory provides a viable tool to explain changes in actors’ foreignpolicy behaviors, presuming that states’ foreign policies are shaped by the ruling elites’ foreignpolicy role conceptions. This article analyzes Turkish foreign policy roles with regard to theMiddle East and North Africa before and since the Arab uprisings that began in December2010. We argue that these uprisings caused Turkey to change its emphasis from roles builton soft power instruments to harder roles requiring material capabilities. We also discuss theimplications of this change with reference to theories of international politics.

Ozdamar, Ozgur/0000-0003-2943-6054; WOS: 000235681100129 The title compound, C10H13NO, crystallizes with two independent but essentially identical molecules in the asymmetric unit. The molecules are linked by two N-H center dot center dot center dot O and two C-H center dot center dot center dot O hydrogen bonds into chains of edge-fused rings in which R-3(3)(10) and R-8(8)(33) rings alternate.

This paper explores religious discrimination against ethnic groups and foreign policy crisis linkages as part of the broader foreign policy approaches developed by McGowan and Shapiro (1973) and James and Özdamar (2005, 2008). Informed by the literature suggesting that domestic policies of repression and inequality may result in similar patterns of behavior internationally, this study tests whether states characterized by high levels of religious discrimination against ethnoreligious minorities are more likely to initiate or become involved in foreign policy crises with other states in general. A broad range of data sources, including an independently collected religious discrimination index, are used to test the hypothesized relationship between religious discrimination and international crisis during the period 1990-2003. The results suggest that religious discrimination is an important predictor of initiating and becoming involved in international crises. © 2013 International Studies Association.

Ozdamar, Ozgur/0000-0003-2943-6054; ERSANLI, CEM/0000-0002-8113-5091 WOS: 000232965400168 The title compound, C12H12Cl2N2O3, adopts a keto-hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by an intramolecular hydrogen bond. The molecule can be considered as consisting of two connected fragments, viz. a chlorophenylhydrazone group, with a Z configuration, and an oxobutanoate group. The molecule is roughly planar, the dihedral angle between the benzene ring and the plane including the aliphatic chain being 4.7 (2)degrees.

Ozdamar, Ozgur/0000-0003-2943-6054; Hokelek, Tuncer/0000-0002-8602-4382; ERSANLI, CEM/0000-0002-8113-5091 WOS: 000230945400153 The title compound, C12H13ClN2O3, adopts a keto-hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by an intramolecular N-(HO)-O-... hydrogen bond. The configuration around the C = N bond is trans. The dihedral angle between the aromatic ring and the aliphatic chain is 5.52 ( 9) degrees. Symmetry-related molecules are linked via C-(HO)-O-... hydrogen bonds to form chains along the b axis.

Ozdamar, Ozgur/0000-0003-2943-6054 WOS: 000230167400112 The title compound, C12H12N3O5, adopts a keto-hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by an intramolecular hydrogen bond. The aromatic ring and aliphatic chain, which adopt a trans configuration about the N - N bond, are nearly coplanar, with a dihedral angle of 18.30 (6)degrees between them. The molecules pack via weak intermolecular C - H center dot center dot center dot O hydrogen bonds which, together with an intramolecular N - H center dot center dot center dot O bond, form an S(6) C(13) motif. The structure is further stabilized by C - H center dot center dot center dot pi and pi-pi interactions.

Ozdamar, Ozgur/0000-0003-2943-6054; WOS: 000230167400111 The title compound, C12H12N3O5, adopts a keto-hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by intramolecular hydrogen bonds. The aromatic ring and aliphatic chain, which adopt a trans configuration about the C=N double bond, are nearly coplanar, with a dihedral angle of 7.56 (1)degrees between them. The molecules pack via weak intermolecular C - H center dot center dot center dot O hydrogen bonds which, together with intramolecular N - H center dot center dot center dot O bonds, form an S(6) S(6)[R-2(2)(13)] S(6) S(6) motif.

demonstrate to Turkish academics how an event dataset could be used and be useful for explaining certain foreign policy issues. An example could be the Turkish Cyprus issue. Everybody out there has written on this, so everybody knows the basics of it, but using concrete data to actually analyze and pose questions about this issue makes sense and could shed light on further development. As a prototype work, it could show the usefulness of event data to the general public and then gather more researchers to work on it

Next to national defense, energy security has become a primary issue for the survival and wellbeing of both developed and developing nations. A review of the literature shows how concerns for energy security acquired a new dimension after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when the Western powers and a weakened Russia competed for the control of the Eurasia region and its energy resources. Research has also focused on how different countries have developed a variety of strategies for securing their energy supply. Energy security literature can be split into three general sections: neoclassical economics and public choice, bureaucratic politics and public administration, and political economy. Scholars have also explored regime theory, resource conflict, and the relationship between national energy security and foreign policy. In the case of the United States, four major challenges in foreign policy issues related to energy security can be identified: “building alliances, strengthening collective energy security, asserting its interests with energy suppliers, and addressing the rise of state control in energy.” These challenges require eight specific foreign policy responses from the U.S. government, two of which constitute the core relationship between energy security and foreign policy making: “candor and respect” for the producer countries, and foreign policies that promote the stability and security of suppliers.

Ozdamar, Ozgur/0000-0003-2943-6054; Naviglio, Daniele/0000-0001-5191-7669; pedatella, silvana/0000-0002-4078-1468 WOS: 000272462100051 PubMed: 19938836 Dipeptides obtained from L-proline and beta(3)-L-amino acids are reported to catalyze enantioselective direct aldol reaction in aqueous medium, leading to significant anti: syn diastereomeric ratios and enantiomeric excesses. The simple introduction of a polar substituent at the C-2 position of the beta(3)-L-amino acid was also found to enhance appreciably both diastereo- and enantioselectivity of the catalyst.

The title compound, C14H15ClN2O4, adopts a keto–hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by an intra­molecular N—H⋯O hydrogen bond. The configuration around the N—N bond is trans. The dihedral angle between the aromatic ring and the plane of the aliphatic chain attached to the hydrazone group is 10.5 (1)°. In the solid state, mol­ecules exist as centrosymmetrically related C—H⋯O hydrogen-bonded R22(24) dimers.

Hokelek, Tuncer/0000-0002-8602-4382; Ozdamar, Ozgur/0000-0003-2943-6054; ERSANLI, CEM/0000-0002-8113-5091 WOS: 000237237000168 The title compound, C13H15ClN2O3, adopts a keto-hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by an intramolecular N-H center dot center dot center dot O hydrogen bond. The configuration around the N-N bond is trans. The dihedral angle between the aromatic ring and the plane of the C-C-C(=O)-C aliphatic chain is 6.07 (8)degrees.

Hokelek, Tuncer/0000-0002-8602-4382; Ozdamar, Ozgur/0000-0003-2943-6054; ERSANLI, CEM/0000-0002-8113-5091 WOS: 000231589900098 The title compound, C12H12ClFN2O3, adopts a keto-hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by an intramolecular N-H (. . .) O hydrogen bond. The whole molecule is roughly planar, the largest deviation from the mean plane being 0.328 (3) angstrom for the terminal methyl C atom of the ethyl side chain.

Hokelek, Tuncer/0000-0002-8602-4382; Ozdamar, Ozgur/0000-0003-2943-6054 WOS: 000232301100250 The title compound, C13H15ClN2O4, adopts a keto-hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by intramolecular N-H center dot center dot center dot O hydrogen bonds. The phenylhydrazone fragment is planar within +/- 0.028 (2) angstrom. The dihedral angle between the phenylhydrazone and oxobutanoate planes is 8.15 (9)degrees. Symmetry-related molecules are linked via C-H center dot center dot center dot O hydrogen bonds to form chains along [101].

Ozdamar, Ozgur/0000-0003-2943-6054; WOS: 000245187300170 There are two crystallographically independent molecules in the asymmetric unit of the title compound, C12H12ClBrN2O3. The molecules adopt a keto-hydrazo tautomeric form, stabilized by an intramolecular hydrogen bond. The aromatic ring and aliphatic chain have a trans configuration about the N-N bond. The molecules pack via weak intermolecular C-H center dot center dot center dot O hydrogen bonds which, together with an intramolecular N-H center dot center dot center dot O bond, form an S(6)[R-2(2)(14)]S(6) motif.

The title compound, C14H17ClN2O3, adopts a keto–hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by an intramolecular N—H...O hydrogen bond. The molecule is roughly planar.