Modeling Foreign Policy and Ethnic Conflict: Turkey’s Policies Towards Syria

Studies of foreign policy are as eclectic as the states in the global system. This paper attempts to provide a framework to facilitate the comparative study of foreign policy. Based on the original model by McGowan and Shapiro (1973), the expanded model here reflects advances in the understanding of the global system as well as the increased internationalization of domestic actors and events. The model will be illustrated by an analysis of Turkish foreign policy with Syria influenced by Turkey's own Kurdish citizenry. The first section of the study begins by presenting a particular ontological approach—a system-oriented model that facilitates understanding of the connection between domestic, or micro, variables and external, or macro, variables. Based on Bunge's (1996) concept of comprehensive “systemism”, the model facilitates incorporation of both international and domestic variables. The second part of the section presents a foreign policy model that meets the standards set by a system-oriented approach. This approach is increasingly relevant, as traditionally internal disturbances, such as ethnic conflicts, become internationalized. The second section of the paper presents Turkish-Syrian relations concerning the Kurds to illustrate the potential of the model and its variables. In the third section, this case is used to evaluate the explanatory power of the model. The conclusion provides overall generalizations and implications for further research and policy. We have chosen to illustrate the model by exploring the relationship between Turkey's Kurdish citizenry with Turkish-Syrian foreign policy. As will be shown, internal relations between Turkish-Kurds and the national government in Ankara have had a direct influence on the relationship between Turkey and Syria. Both states have, at times, centered their foreign policy decisions on this sometimes violent issue. ### Systemism Internationalization of domestic events has become a focus of foreign policy analysis studies. Ethnic conflicts provide numerous examples of this phenomenon (Carment …