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This study used state-level data on expenditures since 1977 to study the forces underlying the shift in state financing of higher education. The focus is on interactions between state appropriations for higher education, other state budget items, especially Medicaid, and the business cycle. The first section documents the substantial decline in state support for higher education over the past two decades. The second section examines the causes of that decline, focusing particularly on expansions in the Medicaid program and the implications for state higher education spending. The third section explores the effects of the business cycle on higher education subsidies. The fourth section briefly examines the impact of declines in state appropriations for higher education on the relative quality of public higher education institutions, which is to be discussed in more detail in a forthcoming companion paper. The principal reason offered for trends in state financing of higher education is fiscal pressure from other state budget requirements. The underlying story that emerges from this analysis is that pressure from other state budget items, especially Medicaid, has been crowding out appropriations for higher education. The pattern from the 1990s suggests that reductions in higher education appropriations are implemented during an economic downturn and then made permanent by failing to raise appropriations substantially during the subsequent economic recovery. (Contains 23 figures, 12 tables, and 35 references.) (SLD)

This report highlights the most recent indicators of social and economic conditions in rural areas for use in developing rural policies and programs. The economic expansion of the 1990s greatly benefited rural economies. Rural areas attracted both urban residents and immigrants. Hispanics accounted for over 25 percent of nonmetropolitan population growth in the 1990s. The rural West grew by 20 percent, twice the national average, boosted by both high immigration and high birth rates. Nonmetro and metro unemployment rates moved together, declining during most of the 1990s and increasing as the recession began in 2001. The share of nonmetro workers whose income was below the poverty level fell from 32 percent in 1996 to 25 percent in 2001. Still, half of nonmetro workers without high school diplomas worked in low-wage jobs. Although nonmetro poverty rates were the lowest on record, child poverty remained high. Almost 19 percent of rural children lived in poverty, and a similar proportion resided in food-insecure households. Maps and figures illustrate nonmetro population change, 1990-2000; changes in unemployment and poverty rates; and the extent of poverty in nonmetro counties. A data table presents selected social and economic indicators. (SV)

Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) needs to focus more directly on what happens in the workplace and consider the needs of employers. Employers identify skill levels of both job applicants and employees as a major obstacle to employing and retaining TANF recipients and other entry-level workers as well as the cost of entry-level employee turnover. Pre-employment training for TANF recipients can develop basic employability skills, work-related literacy and math skills, and job-specific skills. By considering policies that address these improvements, policy makers can increase the benefits employers receive from TANF-funded workforce development. (Contains 11 endnotes.) (AJ)

An empirical analysis used data for 12 European countries from the 1988-1997 European Community Labour Force Survey to assess the effects of cyclical changes in aggregate economic conditions, changing youth cohort sizes, increasing educational expansion, and structural changes in labor demand on new labor force participants. Emphasis was on the unemployment risks and occupational allocations of these labor market entrants. The study found that unemployment risks have closely followed the evolution of aggregate economic conditions with only a little impact from demographic factors. Changes in occupational allocation, in turn, are much dependent on the relative evolution of educational expansion and professionalization tendencies. In addition, these trends do not affect all educational leavers evenly. The lowest qualified are most heavily affected by cyclical changes in economic conditions, while leavers from university-level education have been more strongly affected by trends of changing occupational attainment. Increasing labor force professionalization is found to contribute to increasing labor market difficulties among the lowest qualified. (Contains 83 references.) (KC)

Cyclical and structural issues in engineering skills formation in Great Britain were studied through a review of recent employment patterns, income patterns, employment projections, recent trends in education and training, and recent developments in technology and work organization. The review focused on the following issues: (1) the extent and nature of mismatches between the supply of and demand for engineering skills; (2) the extent to which engineering skill problems are cyclical as opposed to structural; and (3) the adequacy of current arrangements for engineering education and training. The following were among the main conclusions: (1) engineering skill problems are most apparent when they manifest in the form of external recruitment difficulties at the peak of each business cycle; (2) long-term trends in training levels and recruitment difficulties in the past 3 decades reflect structural rather than merely cyclical weaknesses in the British system of engineering training; (3) recent changes in markets and work organizations have significantly increased engineering employers' expectations of graduates; and (4) one way to expand modern apprenticeship (MA) numbers would be to develop preapprenticeship courses to prepare underqualified 16- and 17-year-olds for later entry to MA schemes. (Fourteen tables/figures are included. The bibliography lists 34 references.) (MN)

Economic theory suggests that when the reduction in earnings from dropping out of school is minimal, dropout rates will be high. As earnings loss for dropouts grows, however, the dropout rate should decrease. This chapter examines whether these predicted effects actually occur by looking at changes in dropout rates in Kentucky in the 1970s and 1980s. Following the 1973 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries oil embargo, the rising price of coal had a major impact on Kentucky's economy, greatly increasing employment and earnings in counties with large coal reserves. Unfortunately for Kentucky, the coal bust that followed in the 1980s was equally sharp. Data for 1972-81 from Pike County--the largest coal producing county in eastern Kentucky--show that changes in population and changes in enrollment in grades 5-8 were somewhat parallel, but that change in high school enrollment almost always moved in the opposite direction of change in population. In addition, analysis of regional earnings and enrollment data suggests that a 10 percent increase in earnings between 1969 and 1993 reduced high school enrollments by about 2.5 percent. Thus, high school enrollments seem fairly sensitive to the opportunities for unschooled workers in the surrounding area. Data on relative earnings for Kentucky males at different education levels in 1980 and 1990 suggest that incentives to attend college increased in the 1980s, but not the incentive to complete high school. Implications for Kentucky's future and for the Kentucky Education Reform Act are discussed. (SV)

Between March 1994 and March 1996, 31 academics, managers, and consultants attended 8 seminars to review current/future trends in careers in the United Kingdom and consider how those trends can best be managed. It was determined that changes in the economy, technology, business culture, the population, and employment patterns are radically affecting the nature of careers and will result in an older, better-educated, and better vocationally qualified labor force that will contain more women, more individuals who work for small employers, and more self-employed individuals. Although job opportunities will continue to expand at professional, managerial, and technical levels, many other new jobs will be part time, low paid, and of low status. The changes in employment and the organization of work will have far-reaching consequences for organizations, labor markets, and individuals and have created an urgent need for the following: assistance (including career guidance and access to lifelong learning) for individuals; integration of educational and vocational qualifications and accreditation systems to cover all forms of learning; individual learning accounts; attention to "intermediary" organizations between individuals and employers; and opportunities for individuals to use periods of unemployment to develop skills. (Ninety footnotes are included. Appended is background information about the seminar series.) (MN)

Small and mid-sized businesses must change their production and service delivery methods if they are to remain competitive in a global economy. According to businesspersons, service providers, and employees who participated in 18 focus groups in 10 cities throughout the United States, businesses are being forced to change their ways of doing business by many factors, including the following: economic downturns, increased competition, customer demands, developments in technology, new regulations, labor shortages, and an increasingly diverse work force. The focus group participants noted three levers for changing how goods and services are produced and/or delivered: technology, work processes, and people. The following actions can increase the likelihood that change efforts will be successful: start with a strategic plan; build support among all key stakeholders; be creative in seeking information/assistance; involve all employees in the change process; train workers in every aspect of company operation; keep employees informed about all changes; and follow through on all commitments. The following are ways of gaining employee involvement: hold meetings with all workers before starting the change effort, solicit employees' views, have an open-door policy or use other mechanisms to encourage communication between employees and management, and report both the good and bad news. (MN)

Data assembled from the sequence of Current Population Survey (CPS) tenure supplements for 1973, 1978, 1981, 1983, 1987, and 1991 were analyzed along with demographic characteristics and other variables available from the general CPS to identify changes in job retention rates in the United States throughout the 1980s. The analysis was based on Hall's method of estimating the distribution of eventual job tenure and Ureta's refinement of that procedure, which makes it possible to estimate historical 1-year job retention rates. Consideration was given to the possible effect of business cycles on retention rates. Overall, job retention rates remained fairly stable throughout the 1980s and early 1990s. Disaggregation of the data by current tenure, age, race, sex, education, and occupation did, however, reveal some changes in 4-year retention rates by demographic group that correspond loosely to changes in the wage structure. Retention rates have, for example, declined for high school dropouts and high school graduates relative to college graduates and for blacks relative to whites. Except for the aggregate results for blacks, most of those changes were small and statistically insignificant, however. (Contains 10 tables/figures and 21 references.) (MN)

This is one of a series of essays adapted from articles in "On Reserve," a newsletter for economic educators published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. This pamphlet explains how public debt incurred by the federal government may not be necessarily bad from an economic perspective. The sections of the pamphlet include: (1) "Debt as an Asset"; (2) "Government Debt Instruments"; (3) "The Government in the Market"; (4) "The Auction"; and (5) "The Burden of Deficits." Contains a list of 11 additional readings. (EH)

This document contains the final progress report on a tech prep implementation project and the Work Force Challenge 2000 Report developed during the project. The final report lists these major accomplishments: approximately 1,500 educators in grades K-12 were provided information concerning future global issues in the work force and the effects in the Danville, Illinois, area; one part of Work Force Challenge 2000 was brought to closure with development of the final report; a summer shadowing/internship program was implemented through an area high school; and a summer integration project offered a combined Technology Orientation and English course. Materials developed by and used in the project are appended. The Workforce Challenge 2000 Report begins with an executive summary that describes efforts of the diverse sectors of the Danville community to plan and implement a program to prepare and maintain a qualified, adaptable work force for Vermilion County and the area that Danville Area Community College serves. Local work force concerns that were identified are listed. The body of the report lists five goals to address these concerns along with objectives and related tasks to achieve them. Appendixes include a summary of need for Workforce Challenge 2000; human resources survey results; information from the Department of Labor study, "What Work Requires of Schools"; and implementation organization and strategies for Workforce Challenge 2000. (YLB)

Japan's economic success is clear evidence that purposeful investments in the educational quality of the work force pay major dividends in terms of enhanced productivity and increased competitiveness. The key elements of the Japanese system are, in fact, less than 40 years old. The current recession is a reminder of the transitory nature of economic trends. Within Japan, most discussions of the work force begin with the looming shortage of first-time workers and an expensive surplus of retirees. The Japanese have a relatively limited number of alternatives: increased use of female workers, greater use of older workers, increased number of guest workers, basic redistribution of workers from labor intensive sectors, and accelerated export of production jobs. The tightness of Japanese labor markets is a function of migration patterns that have yielded an economy and population increasingly concentrated in three areas: Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya. Side effects of educational competition include dwindling numbers of students in technical and vocational schools and increased costs of educating children that deter larger families and prolong the effects of the "baby bust." Changes for Japan may include a less rigid labor market, a shift to educational programs outside the firm, and an effort to apply the lessons of manufacturing efficiency to service sector industries. Numerous graphs and charts supplement the text. (YLB)

This monograph explains the new economy from the point of view of people at work. It begins by providing an overview of the new economy and places the United States in it. Separate aspects of the new economy are elaborated in five parts. Part I presents the competitive standards that provide the cornerstone for the new economic reality: robust productivity, flexible volumes, speed, affordable quality, and customer focus. Part II assesses the role of technology, especially information technology, in the new economy. Part III explains how the orderly cycles of economic change have been transformed in the new environment. Parts IV, V, and VI discuss the impact of new competitive standards, technologies, and the radical alteration caused by economic change on organizations, jobs, and skills respectively. Part IV discusses mass production structures; services, independent crafts, and professions; and examples of industries' diverse responses to organizational demands. Part V addresses how the new economy has affected jobs in three ways: quantity, distribution, and quality. Part VI discusses factors affecting skill requirements and elaborates on the skills needed in the new economy. A list of 138 references is appended. (YLB)

Immigration has historically played an important role in supplying United States labor needs. However, current immigration and immigrant policies emphasize noneconomic selection criteria, such as family reunification, for determining the annual volume and characteristics of legal immigrants. Declining United States fertility rates and an increasing need for professional and skilled labor has prompted policymakers to consider changes in immigrant policies that would respond to the labor market needs of the economy. A greater emphasis on labor market considerations could meet changing demands for labor, minimize negative distributional effects, and speed up the economic and social adjustment of immigrants and their children. However, the following major factors must be considered in developing effective policies: (1) policies must be flexible in order to respond to rapidly changing labor market conditions; (2) policymakers need an informed basis for developing selection criteria that will ensure a match between immigration and manpower needs while avoiding short-term displacement of native workers; and (3) the absence of good information continues to make policy design and evaluation problematic. Statistical data are presented in eight tables and six graphs. An 81-item bibliography is appended. (FMW)

On September 26, 1990, the Census Bureau released its 1989 figures on poverty and income which showed that no significant progress was made in reducing poverty in 1989, and that gaps between rich and poor and between the wealthy and the middle class hit their widest points in more than 40 years. Although 1989 marked the seventh year of economic recovery, the poverty rate remained higher than in any year of the 1970s. Projected job layoffs and growing food stamp and welfare rolls indicate that the poverty rate has begun to rise in 1990. The new data also show that the lion's share of recent income gains has gone to the richest fifth, in fact, the largest share ever recorded. Furthermore, the Census Bureau does not record an individual's capital gains income, a substantial amount for this sector of the population. The maximum personal income it records is $299,000. If a person earns $1 million a year, it is recorded as $299,000. The poverty rate was much higher in 1989 than in 1979, although the unemployment rate was similar in both years. The poverty rate for Hispanics and children rose dramatically from 1979 to 1989; it declined for the elderly. Declining wage levels, reductions in government benefits, and an increase in the number of families headed by single women have contributed to this trend. In a separate report released the same day, the Census Bureau discussed alternative measures of poverty, such as counting after-tax rather than before-tax income, counting medical benefits as income, omitting the homeless from poverty data, and including food stamps as income. Data are presented in four tables and four graphs. (DM)

This publication provides results of a longitudinal study of young firms and their owners. Data represent the responses of a national sample of new business owners (N=2,994) who were members of the National Federation of Independent Business in May 1985 and had been in business for no more than 17 months with the average respondent owning the business for 11 months. An 11-page summary of data discusses results pertaining to the type of people who form businesses, the firms they form, the business climate, changes in the businesses, and attitudes of owners after 3 years. Appendix I sequentially presents every survey question posed during the entire project and the new business owners' responses to them. It also presents firm or environment data that did not require the owner to respond but for which there were data from another source. Data are provided in unnumbered tables, identified in the upper left hand corner by the year in which the survey was conducted. Forty-nine pages of tables are provided. Appendix II is a note on sampling and methodology. Appendix III contains the regression results of selected "predictors" of new business survival and growth. Appendix IV consists of the three survey questionnaires used in the 3 years of the study. (YLB)

This pamphlet recaps the chain of events known as The Bank Panic of 1907. Historians view this as a watershed event that had a lasting impact on the financial system of the United States. The panic resulted from the collapse of the United Copper Company and was averted with the intervention of John D. Rockefeller and the J. P. Morgan Company. The pamphlet is divided into three parts: (1) "In Which the Downfall of a Prominent Speculator Rocks the Financial System, and a Prominent Millionaire Saves the Day"; (2) "Panic of 1907: Movers and Shakers"; and (3) "Parallel History: Everyday People." (EH)

The evolution of eight Tech Prep consortia since reauthorization of federal Tech Prep legislation in 1998 was examined in a 4-year longitudinal study. Cross-consortium changes were identified through field visits and personal interviews between 1998-2001 with a wide range of stakeholders, especially administrators, faculty, and students. Legislated changes increased emphasis on contextual learning and work-based learning, articulation agreements, and accountability. Changes within the consortia included these: (1) greater awareness that Tech Prep resources be directed at the secondary level; (2) increased efforts to raise academic standards; (3) more 2+2+2 curriculum options; (4) necessity for new certifications; (5) updating, broadening, and integration of CTE curriculum; and (6) increased use of career academies. In order to facilitate change, local characteristics such as supportive and stable leadership, adequate fiscal resources, and intra-school communication were needed. External change factors such as states' historic role in oversight of vocational education, business and industry support of Tech Prep, and stricter academic standards were also necessary. These recommendations for future policy and practice included: (1) increased articulation agreements supporting student transition from high school to college; (2) increased funding for curriculum innovation to meet diverse student needs; (3) involvement of 4-year colleges and universities in Tech Prep curriculum reform; (4) avoidance of student tracking; (5) strengthened community college role in Tech Prep; and (6) enhanced program evaluation and outcomes assessment approaches. (AJ)

This paper uses regression and matching techniques to evaluate Indonesia's Social Safety Net Scholarships Program. The program aimed to prevent large numbers of children from dropping out of school as a result of the Asian economic crisis of 1998. It was expected that families would find it difficult to keep their children in school and that dropout rates would be high, as they were during the recession of the 1980s. However, dropout rates did not increase markedly, and enrollment rates have remained relatively steady. This paper examines the role played by the scholarship program in producing this result. Data were drawn from a national household survey of 100 rural villages across Indonesia, conducted in 1994 and 5 times in 1997-99. The scholarships were found to have been effective in reducing dropouts at the lower secondary school level by about three percentage points but had no discernable impact at the primary and upper secondary school levels. Analyses also examined how well the program adhered to its documented targeting design and how effective this design was in reaching the poor. The targeting criteria appear to have been followed quite closely, but this did not prevent some households with higher reported per-capita expenditures from receiving the scholarship. (Contains 23 references and data tables and figures.) (Author/SV)

In a period of business downsizing, older workers are at risk for unemployment. Finding a suitable replacement job is difficult and can lead to emotional and financial distress. Counselors need to be aware of the work-related issues facing older adults and understand the suitable interventions that will help them make smoother career and life transitions. (Author/JDM)

Recent research on the impact of economics on mental and physical health has raised fundamental questions about structural elements in the macro-economy and their role in creating stress. This paper reviews and integrates these sometimes conflicting findings into a cohesive model. Structural elements of our current economic system are identified as possible major stressors: (1) instability in the business cycle; (2) unemployment; (3) inequality in income distribution; and (4) fragmentation of the work process. Research is reviewed linking the economic cycle with suicide and increased psychological symptoms as well as physical illness. Intervention on the institutional level is suggested since these macro-economic elements appear to be more powerful than the individual coping mechanisms of some demographic subgroups. The implications of these findings for primary prevention are discussed. (Author/JAC)

Data on the characteristics and labor market experiences of illegal aliens in the U.S. work force were collected by voluntary interviews with 793 apprehended illegal immigrants who had worked at least two weeks in the U.S. From the resulting diverse collection of case histories, it was concluded that (1) illegal workers in the U.S. are likely to be disadvantaged persons with little education and few skills and employed in low-level jobs (Most reported employment as the primary motive for migration and sent an average of $105 a month to their homeland to help support an average of 4.6 people); and (2) since illegal workers are successful in finding low-level jobs due to work experience in their own countries, and appear to be highly motivated and productive, an increasing supply of illegal aliens is likely to depress the educational and skill level of the workforce, depress labor standards in the secondary sector, cause displacement of low-skill legal resident workers, and create a new class of disadvantaged workers. Data are provided for the survey respondents on demographic characteristics, work experience, backhome socioeconomic conditions, reasons for migration, and on their contact with various governmental systems. U.S. immigration policy and practices are discussed, as well as the role and impact of illegals on the U.S. labor market. Appended to the report are results of another survey of illegal immigrants and the interview schedule. (NJ)