Job Stability in the United States. EQW Working Papers WP30.

Data assembled from the sequence of Current Population Survey (CPS) tenure supplements for 1973, 1978, 1981, 1983, 1987, and 1991 were analyzed along with demographic characteristics and other variables available from the general CPS to identify changes in job retention rates in the United States throughout the 1980s. The analysis was based on Hall's method of estimating the distribution of eventual job tenure and Ureta's refinement of that procedure, which makes it possible to estimate historical 1-year job retention rates. Consideration was given to the possible effect of business cycles on retention rates. Overall, job retention rates remained fairly stable throughout the 1980s and early 1990s. Disaggregation of the data by current tenure, age, race, sex, education, and occupation did, however, reveal some changes in 4-year retention rates by demographic group that correspond loosely to changes in the wage structure. Retention rates have, for example, declined for high school dropouts and high school graduates relative to college graduates and for blacks relative to whites. Except for the aggregate results for blacks, most of those changes were small and statistically insignificant, however. (Contains 10 tables/figures and 21 references.) (MN)