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Using global data for around 180 countries and territories and 170 food/feed types primarily derived from FAOSTAT, we have systematically analyzed the changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity (GHG i ) (kg CO 2eq per kg protein production) over the past six decades. We found that, with large spatial heterogeneity, emission intensity decreased by nearly two-thirds from 1961 to 2019, predominantly in the earlier years due to agronomic improvement in productivity. However, in the most recent decade, emission intensity has become stagnant, and in a few countries even showed an increase, due to the rapid increase in livestock production and land use changes. The trade of final produced protein between countries has potentially reduced the global GHG i , especially for countries that are net importers with high GHG i , such as many in Africa and South Asia. Overall, a continuous decline of emission intensity in the future relies on countries with higher emission intensity to increase agricultural productivity and minimize land use changes. Countries with lower emission intensity should reduce livestock production and increase the free trade of agricultural products and improve the trade optimality., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

Although reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions from food and energy production contribute to multi-dimensional environmental damages, integrated management of Nr is still lacking owing to unclear future mitigation potentials and benefits. Here, we find that by 2050, high-ambition compared to low-ambition N interventions reduce global ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions by 21 and 22 TgN/a, respectively, equivalent to 40 and 52% of their 2015 levels. This would mitigate population-weighted PM2.5 by 6 g/m 3 and avoid premature deaths by 817 k (16%), mitigate ozone by 4 ppbv, avoid premature deaths by 252k (34%) and crop yield losses by 122 million tons (4.3%), and decrease terrestrial ecosystem areas exceeding critical load by 420 Mha (69%). Without nitrogen interventions, most environmental damages examined will deteriorate between 2015 and 2050; Africa and Asia are the most vulnerable but also benefit the most from interventions. Nitrogen interventions support sustainable development goals related to air, health, and ecosystems.

Effective nitrogen fertilizer management is crucial for reducing nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions while ensuring food security within planetary boundaries. However, climate change might also interact with management practices to alter N 2 O emission and emission factors (EFs), adding further uncertainties to estimating mitigation potentials. Here, we developed a new hybrid modeling framework that integrates a machine learning model with an ensemble of eight process-based models to project EFs under different climate and nitrogen policy scenarios. Our findings reveal that EFs are dynamically modulated by environmental changes, including climate, soil properties, and nitrogen management practices. Under low-ambition nitrogen regulation policies, EF would increase from 1.18%-1.22% in 2010 to 1.27%-1.34% by 2050, representing a relative increase of 4.4%-11.4% and exceeding the IPCC tier-1 EF of 1%. This trend is particularly pronounced in tropical and subtropical regions with high nitrogen inputs, where EFs could increase by 0.14%-0.35% (relative increase of 11.9%-17%). In contrast, high-ambition policies have the potential to mitigate the increases in EF caused by climate change, possibly leading to slight decreases in EFs. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that global EFs are expected to continue rising due to warming and regional drying-wetting cycles, even in the absence of changes in nitrogen management practices. This asymmetrical influence of nitrogen fertilizers on EFs, driven by climate change, underscores the urgent need for immediate N 2 O emission reductions and further assessments of mitigation potentials. This hybrid modeling framework offers a computationally efficient approach to projecting future N 2 O emissions across various climate, soil, and nitrogen management scenarios, facilitating socio-economic assessments and policy-making efforts., (© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Farmed soils contribute substantially to global warming by emitting N 2 O (ref.  1 ), and mitigation has proved difficult 2 . Several microbial nitrogen transformations produce N 2 O, but the only biological sink for N 2 O is the enzyme NosZ, catalysing the reduction of N 2 O to N 2 (ref.  3 ). Although strengthening the NosZ activity in soils would reduce N 2 O emissions, such bioengineering of the soil microbiota is considered challenging 4,5 . However, we have developed a technology to achieve this, using organic waste as a substrate and vector for N 2 O-respiring bacteria selected for their capacity to thrive in soil 6-8 . Here we have analysed the biokinetics of N 2 O reduction by our most promising N 2 O-respiring bacterium, Cloacibacterium sp. CB-01, its survival in soil and its effect on N 2 O emissions in field experiments. Fertilization with waste from biogas production, in which CB-01 had grown aerobically to about 6 × 10 9 cells per millilitre, reduced N 2 O emissions by 50-95%, depending on soil type. The strong and long-lasting effect of CB-01 is ascribed to its tenacity in soil, rather than its biokinetic parameters, which were inferior to those of other strains of N 2 O-respiring bacteria. Scaling our data up to the European level, we find that national anthropogenic N 2 O emissions could be reduced by 5-20%, and more if including other organic wastes. This opens an avenue for cost-effective reduction of N 2 O emissions for which other mitigation options are lacking at present., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The anthropogenic change of the nitrogen (N) cycle is strongly triggered by urban demand (such as food and meat consumption, energy demand and transport). As a consequence of high population density, impacts on human health through water and air pollution also concentrate on a city environment. Thus, an urban perspective on a predominantly rural pollution becomes relevant. Urban N budgets may be considered less intrinsically connected, so that separation of an agri-food chain and an industry-combustion chain is warranted. Results have been obtained for Zielona Góra, Poland, a city of 140,000 inhabitants characterized by domestic and transport sources and forest-dominated surroundings. In addition to food imports in Zielona Gora amounting to about 30 %, in the suburban area a significant share of N amounting to 41 % is related to fertilizer imports. The remaining imports are in fuel, electronics, textiles, plastics and paper. Most of the agri-food N (45 %) is denitrified in wastewater treatment. N associated with combustion (mainly NOx emissions from vehicles) represents a much smaller share than N entering via the agri-food system, amounting to 22 % of the total N imports. This overall picture is maintained also when specifically addressing the city center, with the exception of mineral fertilizer that plays a much smaller role, with just 7 % of N imports to the city., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Reactive nitrogen (Nr) released to the environment is a cause of multiple environmental threats. While Nr flows are often only analyzed in an agricultural context, consumption and emission takes place in the urban environment, and opportunities for Nr recycling and effective policy implementation for mitigation often appear in cities. Since little information is available on the bigger picture of Nr flows through the urban environment, these opportunities often remain unexploited. Here we developed a framework to model Nr pathways through urban and surrounding areas, which we applied to four test areas (Beijing and Shijiazhuang (China), Vienna (Austria), and Zielona Góra (Poland)). Using indicators such as recycling rates and Nr surplus, we estimated environmental risks and recycling potentials based on Nr flows and their entry and exit points. Our findings show marked differences between the core and surrounding areas of each city, with the former being a site of Nr consumption with largest flows associated with households, and the latter a site of (agricultural) production with largest flows associated with industry (fertilizers) and urban plants. As a result, Nr transgresses the core areas in a rather linear manner with only 0-5 % being re-used, with inputs from Nr contained in food and fuels and outputs most commonly as non-reactive N 2 emissions to the atmosphere from wastewater treatment and combustion processes. While the peri-urban areas show a higher Nr recycling rate (6-14 %), Nr accumulation and emissions from cultivated land pose significant environmental challenges, indicating the need for mitigation measures. We found potential to increase nitrogen use efficiency through improved Nr management on cultivated areas and to increase Nr recycling using urine and sewage sludge as synthetic fertilizer substitutes. Hence our framework for urban nitrogen budgets not only allows for consistent budgeting but helps identify common patterns, potentially harmful flows and Nr recycling potential., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Understanding the costs of emission abatement measures is essential for devising reduction efforts. It allows to identify cost-effective solutions to achieve target values set by international agreements or national policies. This work aims to summarize and discuss the current knowledge on costs and effects associated with selected ammonia (NH 3 ) mitigation measures in livestock production through comparison of country-specific and model-estimated values. Often, large differences appear between the results of individual countries, also in comparison with model results that are generally better harmonized between countries. It seems that different system boundaries in cost assessments, but also different geographic and structural conditions create perceived as well as real cost differences, also caused by the variability of individual situations. Our results are robust with respect to identifying feeding strategies as the most cost-effective, but results for other mitigation options do not show any clear trends, thus making it difficult to distinguish further cost-effective solutions. We point out and discuss some key aspects which may affect estimates of national costs, leading to challenges with the interpretation of final results. Our study concludes that further and more consistent assessments (e.g. standardized protocols) are needed to improve the evaluation base for other individual abatement options, including options that are under development., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Excess reactive nitrogen (Nr), including nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and ammonia (NH 3 ), contributes strongly to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) air pollution in Europe, posing challenges to public health. Designing cost-effective Nr control roadmaps for PM 2.5 mitigation requires considering both mitigation efficiencies and implementation costs. Here we identify optimal Nr control pathways for Europe by integrating emission estimations, air quality modeling, exposure-mortality modeling, Nr control experiments and cost data. We find that phasing out Nr emissions would reduce PM 2.5 by 2.3 ± 1.2 μg·m -3 in Europe, helping many locations achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines and reducing PM 2.5 -related premature deaths by almost 100 thousand in 2015. Low-ambition NH 3 controls have similar PM 2.5 mitigation efficiencies as NO x in Eastern Europe, but are less effective in Western Europe until reductions exceed 40%. The efficiency for NH 3 controls increases at high-ambition reductions while NO x slightly decreases. When costs are considered, strategies for both regions uniformly shift in favor of NH 3 controls, as NH 3 controls up to 50% remain 5-11 times more cost-effective than NO x per unit PM 2.5 reduction, emphasizing the priority of NH 3 control policies for Europe., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests.

City clusters play an important role in air pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction in China, primarily due to their high fossil energy consumption levels. The "2 + 26" Cities, i.e., Beijing, Tianjin and 26 other perfectures in northern China, has experienced serious air pollution in recent years. We employ the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model adapted to the "2 + 26" Cities (GAINS-JJJ) to evaluate the impacts of structural adjustments in four major sectors, industry, energy, transport and land use, under the Three-Year Action Plan for Blue Skies (Three-Year Action Plan) on the emissions of both the major air pollutants and CO 2 in the "2 + 26" Cities. The results indicate that the Three-Year Action Plan applied in the "2 + 26" Cities reduces the total emissions of primary fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤ 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ), SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 and CO 2 by 17%, 25%, 21%, 3% and 1%, respectively, from 2017 to 2020. The emission reduction potentials vary widely across the 28 prefectures, which may be attributed to the differences in energy structure, industrial composition, and policy enforcement rate. Among the four sectors, adjustment of industrial structure attains the highest co-benefits of CO 2 reduction and air pollution control due to its high CO 2 reduction potential, while structural adjustments in energy and transport attain much lower co-benefits, despite their relatively high air pollutant emissions reductions, primarily resulting from an increase in the coal-electric load and associated carbon emissions caused by electric reform policies.., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) that also contributes to depletion of ozone in the stratosphere. Agricultural soils account for about 60% of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions. Most national GHG reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change assumes nitrogen (N) additions drive emissions during the growing season, but soil freezing and thawing during spring is also an important driver in cold climates. We show that both atmospheric inversions and newly implemented bottom-up modeling approaches exhibit large N 2 O pulses in the northcentral region of the United States during early spring and this increases annual N 2 O emissions from croplands and grasslands reported in the national GHG inventory by 6 to 16%. Considering this, emission accounting in cold climate regions is very likely underestimated in most national reporting frameworks. Current commitments related to the Paris Agreement and COP26 emphasize reductions of carbon compounds. Assuming these targets are met, the importance of accurately accounting and mitigating N 2 O increases once CO 2 and CH 4 are phased out. Hence, the N 2 O emission underestimate introduces additional risks into meeting long-term climate goals.

Ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions, the majority of which arise from livestock production, are linked to high concentration of PM 2.5 and lower air quality in China. NH 3 mitigation options were well studied at the small-scale (laboratory or pilot), however, they lack of a large-scale test in China. This study fills this crucial gap by evaluating the cost-benefit of pioneering NH 3 mitigation projects carried out for a whole county - Sheyang, Jiangsu province, China. Measures were implemented in 2019 following two distinct strategies, improved manure treatment for industrial livestock farms, and collection and central treatment for traditional livestock farms. Emission reductions of 16% were achieved in a short time. While this is remarkable, it falls short of expectations from small-scale studies. If measures were fully implemented according to purpose and meet expectations from the small scale, higher emission reductions of 42% would be possible. The cost benefit analysis presented in this study demonstrated advantages of central manure treatment over in-farm facilities. With improved implementation of mitigation strategies in industrial livestock farms, traditional livestock farms may play an increasing role in total NH 3 emissions, which means such farms either need to be included in future NH 3 mitigation policies or gradually replaced by industrial livestock farms. The study found an agricultural NH 3 reduction technology route suitable for China's national conditions (such as the "Sheyang Model")., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 , particles with a mass median aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers) in the atmosphere is associated with severe negative impacts on human health, and the gases sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and ammonia are the main PM 2.5 precursors. However, their contribution to global health impacts has not yet been analyzed. Here, we show that nitrogen accounted for 39% of global PM 2.5 exposure in 2013, increasing from 30% in 1990 with rising reactive nitrogen emissions and successful controls on sulfur dioxide. Nitrogen emissions to air caused an estimated 23.3 million years of life lost in 2013, corresponding to an annual welfare loss of 420 billion United States dollars for premature death. The marginal abatement cost of ammonia emission is only 10% that of nitrogen oxides emission globally, highlighting the priority for ammonia reduction.

Cropland ammonia (NH 3 ) emission is a critical driver triggering haze pollution. Many agricultural policies were enforced in past four decades to improve nitrogen (N) use efficiency while maintaining crop yield. Inadvertent reductions of NH 3 emissions, which may be induced by such policies, are not well evaluated. Here, we quantify the China's cropland-NH 3 emission change from 1980 to 2050 and its response to policy interventions, using a data-driven model and a survey-based dataset of the fertilization scheme. Cropland-NH 3 emission in China doubled from 1.93 to 4.02 Tg NH 3 -N in period 1980-1996, and then decreased to 3.50 Tg NH 3 -N in 2017. The prevalence of four agricultural policies may avoid ~3.0 Tg NH 3 -N in 2017, mainly located in highly fertilized areas. Optimization of fertilizer management and food consumption could mitigate three-quarters of NH 3 emission in 2050 and lower NH 3 emission intensity (emission divided by crop production) close to the European Union and the United States. Our findings provide an evidence on the decoupling of cropland-NH 3 from crop production in China and suggest the need to achieve cropland-NH 3  mitigation while sustaining crop yields in other developing economies., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The benefits of the artificial fixation of reactive nitrogen (Nr, nitrogen [N] compounds other than dinitrogen), in the form of N fertilizers and materials are huge, while at the same time posing substantial threats to human and ecosystem health by the release of Nr to the environment. To achieve sustainable N use, Nr loss to the environment must be reduced. An N-budget approach at the national level would allow us to fully grasp the whole picture of Nr loss to the environment through the quantification of important N flows in the country. In this study, the N budgets in Japan were estimated from 2000 to 2015 using available statistics, datasets, and literature. The net N inflow to Japanese human sectors in 2010 was 6180 Gg N yr -1 in total. With 420 Gg N yr -1 accumulating in human settlements, 5760 Gg N yr -1 was released from the human sector, of which 1960 Gg N yr -1 was lost to the environment as Nr (64% to air and 36% to waters), and the remainder assumed as dinitrogen. Nr loss decreased in both atmospheric emissions and loss to terrestrial water over time. The distinct reduction in the atmospheric emissions of nitrogen oxides from transportation, at -4.3% yr -1 , was attributed to both emission controls and a decrease in energy consumption. Reductions in runoff and leaching from land as well as the discharge of treated water were found, at -1.0% yr -1 for both. The aging of Japan's population coincided with the reductions in the per capita supply and consumption of food and energy. Future challenges for Japan lie in further reducing N waste and adapting its N flows in international trade to adopt more sustainable options considering the reduced demand due to the aging population., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

International trade of agricultural products has complicated and far-reaching impacts on land and nitrogen use efficiencies. We analysed the productivity of cropland and livestock and associated use of feed and fertilizer efficiency for over 240 countries, and estimated these countries' cumulative contributions to imports and exports of 190 agricultural products for the period 1961-2017. Crop trade has increased global land and partial fertilizer nitrogen productivities in terms of protein production, which equalled savings of 2,270 Mha cropland and 480 Tg synthetic fertilizer nitrogen over the analysed period. However, crop trade decreased global cropland productivity when productivity is expressed on an energy (per calorie) basis. Agricultural trade has generally moved towards optimality, that is, has increased global land and nitrogen use efficiencies during 1961-2017, but remains at a relatively low level. Overall, mixed impacts of trade on resource use indicate the need to rethink trade patterns and improve their optimality., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Reducing ammonia (NH 3 ) volatilization from croplands while satisfying the food demand is strategically required to mitigate haze pollution. However, the global pattern of NH 3 volatilization remains uncertain, primarily because of the episodic nature of NH 3 volatilization rates and the high variation of fertilization practices. Here, we improve a global estimate of crop-specific NH 3 emissions at a high spatial resolution using an updated data-driven model with a survey-based dataset of the fertilization scheme. Our estimate of the globally averaged volatilization rate (12.6% ± 2.1%) is in line with previous data-driven studies (13.7 ± 3.1%) but results in one-quarter lower emissions than process-based models (16.5 ± 3.1%). The associated global emissions are estimated at 14.4 ± 2.3 Tg N, with more than 50% of the total stemming from three stable crops or 12.2% of global harvested areas. Nearly three-quarters of global cropland-NH 3 emissions could be reduced by improving fertilization schemes (right rate, right type, and right placement). A small proportion (20%) of global harvested areas, primarily located in China, India, and Pakistan, accounts for 64% of abatement potentials. Our findings provide a critical reference guide for the future abatement strategy design when considering locations and crop types.

Over the last decades, energy and pollution control policies combined with structural changes in the economy decoupled emission trends from economic growth, increasingly also in the developing world. It is found that effective implementation of the presently decided national pollution control regulations should allow further economic growth without major deterioration of ambient air quality, but will not be enough to reduce pollution levels in many world regions. A combination of ambitious policies focusing on pollution controls, energy and climate, agricultural production systems and addressing human consumption habits could drastically improve air quality throughout the world. By 2040, mean population exposure to PM2.5 from anthropogenic sources could be reduced by about 75% relative to 2015 and brought well below the WHO guideline in large areas of the world. While the implementation of the proposed technical measures is likely to be technically feasible in the future, the transformative changes of current practices will require strong political will, supported by a full appreciation of the multiple benefits. Improved air quality would avoid a large share of the current 3-9 million cases of premature deaths annually. At the same time, the measures that deliver clean air would also significantly reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and contribute to multiple UN sustainable development goals. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.

China's fertilization practices contribute greatly to the global biogeochemical nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) flows, which have exceeded the safe-operating space. Here, we quantified the potentials of improved nutrient management in the food chain and spatial planning of livestock farms on nutrient use efficiency and losses in China, using a nutrient flow model and detailed information on >2300 counties. Annual fertilizer use could be reduced by 26 Tg N and 6.4 Tg P following improved nutrient management. This reduction N and P fertilizer use would contribute 30% and 80% of the required global reduction, needed to keep the biogeochemical N and P flows within the planetary boundary. However, there are various barriers to make this happen. A major barrier is the transportation cost due to the uneven distributions of crop land, livestock, and people within the country. The amounts of N and P in wastes and residues are larger than the N and P demand of the crops grown in 30% and 50% of the counties, respectively. We argue that a drastic increase in the recycling and utilization of N and P from wastes and residues can only happen following relocation of livestock farms to areas with sufficient cropland.

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O), like carbon dioxide, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere. Over the past 150 years, increasing atmospheric N 2 O concentrations have contributed to stratospheric ozone depletion 1 and climate change 2 , with the current rate of increase estimated at 2 per cent per decade. Existing national inventories do not provide a full picture of N 2 O emissions, owing to their omission of natural sources and limitations in methodology for attributing anthropogenic sources. Here we present a global N 2 O inventory that incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and accounts for the interaction between nitrogen additions and the biochemical processes that control N 2 O emissions. We use bottom-up (inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, process-based land and ocean modelling) and top-down (atmospheric inversion) approaches to provide a comprehensive quantification of global N 2 O sources and sinks resulting from 21 natural and human sectors between 1980 and 2016. Global N 2 O emissions were 17.0 (minimum-maximum estimates: 12.2-23.5) teragrams of nitrogen per year (bottom-up) and 16.9 (15.9-17.7) teragrams of nitrogen per year (top-down) between 2007 and 2016. Global human-induced emissions, which are dominated by nitrogen additions to croplands, increased by 30% over the past four decades to 7.3 (4.2-11.4) teragrams of nitrogen per year. This increase was mainly responsible for the growth in the atmospheric burden. Our findings point to growing N 2 O emissions in emerging economies-particularly Brazil, China and India. Analysis of process-based model estimates reveals an emerging N 2 O-climate feedback resulting from interactions between nitrogen additions and climate change. The recent growth in N 2 O emissions exceeds some of the highest projected emission scenarios 3,4 , underscoring the urgency to mitigate N 2 O emissions.

Global food systems contribute to climate change, the transgression of planetary boundaries and deforestation. An improved understanding of the environmental impacts of different food system futures is crucial for forging strategies to sustainably nourish a growing world population. We here quantify the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of global food system scenarios within a biophysically feasible "option space" in 2050 comprising all scenarios in which biomass supply - calculated as function of agricultural area and yields - is sufficient to cover biomass demand - derived from human diets and the feed demand of livestock. We assessed the biophysical feasibility of 520 scenarios in a hypothetical no-deforestation world. For all feasible scenarios, we calculate (in) direct GHG emissions related to agriculture. We also include (possibly negative) GHG emissions from land-use change, including changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and carbon sinks from vegetation regrowth on land spared from food production. We identify 313 of 520 scenarios as feasible. Agricultural GHG emissions (excluding land use change) of feasible scenarios range from 1.7 to 12.5 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 . When including changes in SOC and vegetation regrowth on spare land, the range is between -10.7 and 12.5 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 . Our results show that diets are the main determinant of GHG emissions, with highest GHG emissions found for scenarios including high meat demand, especially if focused on ruminant meat and milk, and lowest emissions for scenarios with vegan diets. Contrary to frequent claims, our results indicate that diets and the composition and quantity of livestock feed, not crop yields, are the strongest determinants of GHG emissions from food-systems when existing forests are to be protected., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Humanity's transformation of the nitrogen cycle has major consequences for ecosystems, climate and human health, making it one of the key environmental issues of our time. Understanding how trends could evolve over the course of the 21 st century is crucial for scientists and decision-makers from local to global scales. Scenario analysis is the primary tool for doing so, and has been applied across all major environmental issues, including nitrogen pollution. However, to date most scenario efforts addressing nitrogen flows have either taken a narrow approach, focusing on a singular impact or sector, or have not been integrated within a broader scenario framework - a missed opportunity given the multiple environmental and socio-economic impacts that nitrogen pollution exacerbates. Capitalizing on our expanding knowledge of nitrogen flows, this study introduces a framework for new nitrogen-focused narratives based on the widely used Shared Socioeconomic Pathways that include all the major nitrogen-polluting sectors (agriculture, industry, transport and wastewater). These new narratives are the first to integrate the influence of climate and other environmental pollution control policies, while also incorporating explicit nitrogen-control measures. The next step is for them to be used as model inputs to evaluate the impact of different nitrogen production, consumption and loss trajectories, and thus advance understanding of how to address environmental impacts while simultaneously meeting key development goals. This effort is an important step in assessing how humanity can return to the planetary boundary of this essential element over the coming century.

Croplands are the single largest anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) globally, yet their estimates remain difficult to verify when using Tier 1 and 3 methods of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we re-evaluate global cropland-N 2 O emissions in 1961-2014, using N-rate-dependent emission factors (EFs) upscaled from 1206 field observations in 180 global distributed sites and high-resolution N inputs disaggregated from sub-national surveys covering 15593 administrative units. Our results confirm IPCC Tier 1 default EFs for upland crops in 1990-2014, but give a ∼15% lower EF in 1961-1989 and a ∼67% larger EF for paddy rice over the full period. Associated emissions (0.82 ± 0.34 Tg N yr -1 ) are probably one-quarter lower than IPCC Tier 1 global inventories but close to Tier 3 estimates. The use of survey-based gridded N-input data contributes 58% of this emission reduction, the rest being explained by the use of observation-based non-linear EFs. We conclude that upscaling N 2 O emissions from site-level observations to global croplands provides a new benchmark for constraining IPCC Tier 1 and 3 methods. The detailed spatial distribution of emission data is expected to inform advancement towards more realistic and effective mitigation pathways., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of China Science Publishing & Media Ltd.)

This study analyzed ammonia reduction potential and related costs and benefits of several ammonia emission reduction technologies applicable for dairy production from cattle in China. Specifically, these included diet manipulation, manure acidification, manure/slurry covers, and solid manure compaction. Ammonia emissions for China were estimated using the GAINS and NUFER models, while mitigation potentials of technologies were determined from laboratory studies. Ammonia reduction potentials from dairy production in China ranged from 0.8 to 222 Gg NH 3 year -1 for the selected technologies. Implementation costs ranged from a savings of US$15 kg -1 NH 3 abated to an expenditure of US$45 kg -1 NH 3 abated, while the total implementation costs varied from a savings of US$1.5 billion in 2015 to an expenditure of a similar size. The best NH 3 reduction technology was manure acidification, while the most cost-effective option was diet optimization with lower crude protein input. For most abatement options, material costs were the critical element of overall costs. The fertilizer value of manure could partly offset the implementation cost of the options tested. Furthermore, benefits due to avoided health damage, as a result of reducing NH 3 emissions, could make all abatement options (except for manure compaction) profitable on the scale of a national economy.

This paper explores the fate of reactive nitrogen (Nr) on the landscape scale of present agricultural production practice on arable and grassland soils. We use the soil modelling tool LandscapeDNDC (landscape scale DeNitrification-DeComposition model) to quantify resulting flows of Nr distributed to the atmosphere, hydrosphere and the crops. Test area is a watershed in the Austrian Alps characterized by arable production in the low-lying areas and grassland in the mountains. The approach considers an overall budget of nitrogen, and determines the nitrogen use efficiency for individual crops and crop rotations, with average levels found at 85% for the arable area and 68-98% for the grassland areas. Modelled Nr flows are compared to the values resulting from the national emission factor (EF) method used for the Austrian emission inventory. For the arable part of the study region, the annual sum of released Nr emissions derived from LandscapeDNDC modelling is lower than the result of the EF method by about 13% (or 7 kg N ha -1 ). Model results are lower also for other Nr species, yet nitrate leaching rates as well as ammonia emissions contribute a major share. For grassland areas, nitrate leaching values estimated by LandscapeDNDC greatly depend on local specifics and substantially exceed EF estimates. All other modelled Nr species are lower than the EF results. The model set-up allows to characterize spatially explicit effects of mitigation measures. As an example, we identify nitrous oxide (N 2 O) hot spots in the study region, and we quantify the N 2 O emission saving potential if focusing reduction efforts to such hot spots. Reducing fertilization of hot spots by half could remove 14% of N 2 O emission for 5% less crop yield and a loss of grassland yield by <1% when extrapolated to the whole study area., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Our understanding and quantification of global soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and the underlying processes remain largely uncertain. Here, we assessed the effects of multiple anthropogenic and natural factors, including nitrogen fertilizer (N) application, atmospheric N deposition, manure N application, land cover change, climate change, and rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration, on global soil N 2 O emissions for the period 1861-2016 using a standard simulation protocol with seven process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Results suggest global soil N 2 O emissions have increased from 6.3 ± 1.1 Tg N 2 O-N/year in the preindustrial period (the 1860s) to 10.0 ± 2.0 Tg N 2 O-N/year in the recent decade (2007-2016). Cropland soil emissions increased from 0.3 Tg N 2 O-N/year to 3.3 Tg N 2 O-N/year over the same period, accounting for 82% of the total increase. Regionally, China, South Asia, and Southeast Asia underwent rapid increases in cropland N 2 O emissions since the 1970s. However, US cropland N 2 O emissions had been relatively flat in magnitude since the 1980s, and EU cropland N 2 O emissions appear to have decreased by 14%. Soil N 2 O emissions from predominantly natural ecosystems accounted for 67% of the global soil emissions in the recent decade but showed only a relatively small increase of 0.7 ± 0.5 Tg N 2 O-N/year (11%) since the 1860s. In the recent decade, N fertilizer application, N deposition, manure N application, and climate change contributed 54%, 26%, 15%, and 24%, respectively, to the total increase. Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration reduced soil N 2 O emissions by 10% through the enhanced plant N uptake, while land cover change played a minor role. Our estimation here does not account for indirect emissions from soils and the directed emissions from excreta of grazing livestock. To address uncertainties in estimating regional and global soil N 2 O emissions, this study recommends several critical strategies for improving the process-based simulations., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Farm livestock manure is an important source of ammonia and greenhouse gases. Concerns over the environmental impact of emissions from manure management have resulted in research efforts focusing on emission abatement. However, questions regarding the successful abatement of manure-related emissions remain. This study uses a meta-analytical approach comprising 89 peer-reviewed studies to quantify emission reduction potentials of abatement options for liquid manure management chains from cattle and pigs. Analyses of emission reductions highlight the importance of accounting for interactions between emissions. Only three out of the eight abatement options considered (frequent removal of manure, anaerobic digesters, and manure acidification) reduced ammonia (3-60%), nitrous oxide (21-55%), and methane (29-74%) emissions simultaneously, whereas in all other cases, tradeoffs were identified. The results demonstrate that a shift from single-stage emission abatement options towards a whole-chain perspective is vital in reducing overall emissions along the manure management chain. The study also identifies some key elements like proper clustering, reporting of influencing factors, and explicitly describing assumptions associated with abatement options that can reduce variability in emission reduction estimates. Prioritization of abatement options according to their functioning can help to determine low-risk emission reduction options, specifically options that alter manure characteristics (e.g., reduced protein diets, anaerobic digestion, or slurry acidification). These insights supported by comprehensive emission measurement studies can help improve the effectiveness of emission abatement and harmonize strategies aimed at reducing air pollution and climate change simultaneously., (Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.)

In earlier work, we compared the amount of newly fixed nitrogen (N, as synthetic fertilizer and biologically fixed N) entering agricultural systems globally to the total emission of nitrous oxide (N(2)O). We obtained an N(2)O emission factor (EF) of 3-5%, and applied it to biofuel production. For 'first-generation' biofuels, e.g. biodiesel from rapeseed and bioethanol from corn (maize), that require N fertilizer, N(2)O from biofuel production could cause (depending on N uptake efficiency) as much or more global warming as that avoided by replacement of fossil fuel by the biofuel. Our subsequent calculations in a follow-up paper, using published life cycle analysis (LCA) models, led to broadly similar conclusions. The N(2)O EF applies to agricultural crops in general, not just to biofuel crops, and has made possible a top-down estimate of global emissions from agriculture. Independent modelling by another group using bottom-up IPCC inventory methodology has shown good agreement at the global scale with our top-down estimate. Work by Davidson showed that the rate of accumulation of N(2)O in the atmosphere in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries was greater than that predicted from agricultural inputs limited to fertilizer N and biologically fixed N (Davidson, E. A. 2009 Nat. Geosci. 2, 659-662.). However, by also including soil organic N mineralized following land-use change and NO(x) deposited from the atmosphere in our estimates of the reactive N entering the agricultural cycle, we have now obtained a good fit between the observed atmospheric N(2)O concentrations from 1860 to 2000 and those calculated on the basis of a 4 per cent EF for the reactive N.

Objective: To establish an early warning model to simulate the outbreak of influenza based on weather conditions and Yunqi theory, an ancient calendar theory of Chinese medicine (CM)., Methods: Tianjin, a northeastern city in China, was chosen as the region of research and applied the influenza-like illness attack rate (ILI)% as the baseline and warning line to determine the severity of influenza epidemic. Then, an influenza early warning model was constructed based on the theory of rough set and support vector machines (RS-SVM), and the relationship between influenza and meteorology was explored through analyzing the monitoring data., Results: The predictive performance of the model was good, which had achieved 81.8% accuracy when grouping the obtained data into three levels that represent no danger, danger of a light epidemic, and danger of a severe epidemic. The test results showed that if the host qi and guest qi were not balanced, this kind of situation was more likely to cause influenza outbreaks., Conclusions: The outbreak of influenza closely relates to temperature, humidity, visibility, and wind speed and is consistent with some part of CM doctrine. The result also indicates that there is some reasonable evidence in the Yunqi theory.

We investigate the possibility to replace the - so-called - Tier 1 IPCC approach to estimate soil N(2)O emissions with stratified emissions factors that take into account both N-input and the spatial variability of the environmental conditions within the countries of the European Union, using the DNDC-Europe model. Spatial variability in model simulations is high and corresponds to the variability reported in literature for field data. Our results indicate that (a) much of the observed variability in N(2)O fluxes reflects the response of soils to external conditions, (b) it is likely that national inventories tend to overestimate the uncertainties in their estimated direct N(2)O emissions from arable soils; (c) on average over Europe, the fertilizer-induced emissions (FIE) coincide with the IPCC factors, but they display large spatial variations. Therefore, at scales of individual countries or smaller, a stratified approach considering fertilizer type, soil characteristics and climatic parameters is preferable., (Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

A set of methods has been compiled to compare gridded air emission inventories that have been derived, on the same spatial grid, using widely differing techniques. Top-down and bottom-up inventories for Milan, Italy and for the Greater Athens area (GAA), Greece were used to test and apply these methods. The applicability of each method to certain source sectors was assessed by conducting sensitivity analyses. Whilst some of the methods (such as regression calculations or the Moran coefficient) appeared very sensitive to variations of point source emissions, others (e.g. the construction of difference maps) proved more appropriate for characterizing line source differences. Area sources could best be dealt with by using the newly developed acceptability criterion. The development of these tools allows a reproducible comparison of sets of emission inventories and consequently supports developments towards improvement.

An instrument was developed for the measurement of gaseous ammonia concentration, NH(3(sw,eq)), in equilibrium with surface waters, notably ocean water. The instrument measures the ammonia flux from a flowing water surface under defined conditions and allows the calculation of NH(3(sw,eq)) from the principles of Fickian diffusion. The flux collector resembles a wetted parallel plate denuder previously developed for air sampling. The sample under study runs on one plate of the device; the ammonia released from the sample is collected by a slow flow of a receptor liquid on the other plate. The NH(3) + NH(4)(+) (hereinafter called N(T)) in the effluent receptor liquid is preconcentrated on a silica gel column and subsequently measured by a fluorometric flow injection analysis (FIA) system. With a 6-min cycle (4-min load, 2-min inject), the analytical system can measure down to 0.3 nM N(T) in the receptor liquid. Coupled with the flux collector, it is sufficiently sensitive to measure the ammonia flux from seawater. The instrument design is such that it is little affected by ambient ammonia. In both laboratory (N(T) 0.2-50 μM), and field investigations (N(T) 0.18-1.7 μM) good linearity between the ammonia flux and the N(T) concentration in seawater (spiked, synthetic, natural) was observed, although aged seawater, with depleted N(T) content, behaves in an unusual fashion upon N(T) addition, showing the existence of an "ammonia demand". NH(3(sw,eq)) levels from ocean water measured in the Coconut Island Laboratory, HI, ranged from 6.6 to 33 nmol/m(3) with an average of 17.4 ± 6.9 nmol/m(3), in comparison to 2.8-21 nmol/m(3) (average 10 ± 7 nmol/m(3)) NH(3(sw,eq)) values previously reported for the Central Pacific Ocean (Quinn, P. K.; et al. J. Geophys. Res. 1990, 95, 16405-16416).