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This study was designed to deliver a better concurrence between model estimates and observations, of atmospheric aerosol species, and predict their spatial distribution as consistently as possible. A free running aerosol simulation ( freesimu ) in a general circulation model (GCM) was performed, and further the simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) was constrained with the observed AOD. The present study was carried out during the pre-monsoon season and for the Tigerz experiment which was conducted at stations over the Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) and the Himalayan foot-hills in northern India. Our formulation of the constrained aerosol simulation ( constrsimu ) was based upon an identification of the freesimu with the most consistent estimates of aerosol characteristic among the three freesimu . The three freesimu (differing in source of emissions and model horizontal resolution) were carried out with the general circulation model (GCM) of Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD-ZT GCM). Black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate-other water soluble (Sul-ows) estimated from constrsimu amounted to 70%–100% compared to that from freesimu being 20%–50% of their measured counterparts. Among the aerosol species, the pre-monsoon mean concentration of dust was considerably high over most part of the Indian subcontinent; the anthropogenic aerosol species were, however, specifically predominant over the IGP (mostly 8–12 μ g m −3 for Sul-ows, OC). The constrsimu estimated total submicron aerosol mass concentration revealed its alarmingly high value over the northern and north-western India (> 100 μ g m −3 and as high as 300 μ g m −3 ). While the high value of observed AOD was found being mainly due to dust (AOD due to dust greater than 0.3) over the northern–northwestern IGP, it was due to Sul-ows (AOD due to Sul-ows as high as 0.4) over the eastern IGP, eastern coastline, and the Bay of Bengal. Temporal trend of fine (FM) and coarse mode (CM) AOD from constrsimu estimates and that derived from Tigerz experiment were in phase with each other for most of the days and exhibited a strong positive correlation coefficient. Source of Tigerz aerosols was mainly due to a predominant influence of dust from Africa/west Asia followed by that from northwest India, and of anthropogenic emissions originating in the IGP. A 200% increase was inferred for potential black carbon emissions (using India emission inventory implemented in a GCM) to obtain a concurrence between observed and freesimu BC concentration.

As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth’s surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth’s albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth’s climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth’s surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.

The climate impacts of smoke from fires ignited by nuclear war would include global cooling and crop failure. Facing increased reliance on ocean-based food sources, it is critical to understand the physical and biological state of the post-war oceans. Here we use an Earth system model to simulate six nuclear war scenarios. We show that global cooling can generate a large, sustained response in the equatorial Pacific, resembling an El Nino but persisting for up to seven years. The El Nino following nuclear war, or Nuclear Nino, would be characterized by westerly trade wind anomalies and a shutdown of equatorial Pacific upwelling, caused primarily by cooling of the Maritime Continent and tropical Africa. Reduced incident sunlight and ocean circulation changes would cause a 40% reduction in equatorial Pacific phytoplankton productivity. These results indicate nuclear war could trigger extreme climate change and compromise food security beyond the impacts of crop failure. A nuclear conflict could lead to global cooling followed by a large and sustained El Nino-like response in the tropical Pacific region, according to an evaluation of six scenarios for nuclear conflict with an Earth system model.

A nuclear war using less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and large impacts on agricultural productivity. These e↵ects would be most severe for the first five years after the nuclear war and may last for more than a decade. This paper calculates how the price and availability of food worldwide would change by employing the Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equilibrium model. It evaluates how results depend on assumptions about how free trade would continue in a post-war economic environment. The results suggest that preserving the world trading system is key to preventing widespread food shortages as a thriving world trading system minimizes the costs born from disruptions to climate. The analysis shows that the regional nuclear war scenario would a↵ect regional food supply systems, especially in high latitude regions. Although the global average impact on wheat is only a few percentage points, the regional nuclear war leads wheat production in EU 28 countries to plumed, on average, by more than 15%. The model also suggests that regional impacts may result in a plausible domino e↵ect with substantial negative ramifications for local food supplies.

It has been suggested that increased stratospheric sulfate aerosol loadings following large, low latitude volcanic eruptions can lead to wintertime warming over Eurasia through dynamical stratosphere-troposphere coupling. We here investigate the proposed connection in the context of hypothetical future stratospheric sulfate geoengineering in the Geoengineering Large Ensemble simulations. In those geoengineering simulations, we find that stratospheric circulation anomalies that resemble the positive phase of the Northern Annular Mode in winter is a distinguishing climate response which is absent when increasing greenhouse gases alone are prescribed. This stratospheric dynamical response projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, leading to associated side-effects of this climate intervention strategy, such as continental Eurasian warming and precipitation changes. Seasonality is a key signature of the dynamically-driven surface response. We find an opposite response of the North Atlantic Oscillation in summer, when no dynamical role of the stratosphere is expected. The robustness of the wintertime forced response stands in contrast to previously proposed volcanic responses.

Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the benefits or costs of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing current transmission suitability and populations-at-risk under moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) with and without geoengineering. We show that if geoengineering deployment cools the tropics, it could help protect high elevation populations in eastern Africa from malaria encroachment, but could increase transmission in lowland sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Compared to extreme warming, we find that by 2070, geoengineering would nullify a projected reduction of nearly one billion people at risk of malaria. Our results indicate that geoengineering strategies designed to offset warming are not guaranteed to unilaterally improve health outcomes, and could produce regional trade-offs among Global South countries that are often excluded from geoengineering conversations.

Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the costs or benefits of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing transmission suitability and populations-at-risk today against moderate and high emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) with and without geoengineering over the next half-century. We show that if geoengineering deployment cools the tropics, it could help protect high elevation populations in eastern Africa from the encroachment of malaria, but could increase transmission in lowland sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Compared to extreme warming, we also find that by 2070, geoengineering would nullify a projected reduction of nearly one billion people at risk of malaria. Our results indicate that geoengineering strategies designed to offset warming are not guaranteed to unilaterally improve health outcomes, and could produce regional trade-offs among Global South countries that are often excluded from geoengineering conversations.

The realization of the difficulty of limiting global-mean temperatures to within 1.5 or 2.0 ∘C above pre-industrial levels stipulated by the 21st Conference of Parties in Paris has led to increased interest in solar radiation management (SRM) techniques. Proposed SRM schemes aim to increase planetary albedo to reflect more sunlight back to space and induce a cooling that acts to partially offset global warming. Under the auspices of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, we have performed model experiments whereby global temperature under the high-forcing SSP5-8.5 scenario is reduced to follow that of the medium-forcing SSP2-4.5 scenario. Two different mechanisms to achieve this are employed: the first via a reduction in the solar constant (experiment G6solar) and the second via modelling injections of sulfur dioxide (experiment G6sulfur) which forms sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere. Results from two state-of-the-art coupled Earth system models (UKESM1 and CESM2-WACCM6) both show an impact on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in G6sulfur but not in G6solar. Both models show a persistent positive anomaly in the NAO during the Northern Hemisphere winter season in G6sulfur, suggesting an increase in zonal flow and an increase in North Atlantic storm track activity impacting the Eurasian continent and leading to high-latitude warming over Europe and Asia. These results are broadly consistent with previous findings which show similar impacts from stratospheric volcanic aerosol on the NAO and emphasize that detailed modelling of geoengineering processes is required if accurate impacts of SRM effects are to be simulated. Differences remain between the two models in predicting regional changes over the continental USA and Africa, suggesting that more models need to perform such simulations before attempting to draw any conclusions regarding potential continental-scale climate change under SRM.

The Trump administration is considering renewing nuclear weapons testing (1), a move that could increase the risk of another nuclear arms race as well as an inadvertent or intentional nuclear war. Following in the long tradition of scientists opposing nuclear weapons due to their harmful effects on both humanity and the planet (2), we ask the U.S. government to desist from plans to conduct nuclear tests. During the Cold War, the United States conducted 1030 nuclear weapons tests, more than all other nuclear-armed nations combined (3). In 1996, the United States signed the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), agreeing not to conduct a nuclear weapons test of any yield (4). The United States has not yet ratified the CTBT but did spearhead the 2016 adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 2310, which calls upon all countries to uphold the object and purpose of the CTBT by not conducting nuclear tests (5). Eight of the nine nuclear-armed states, including the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, have observed a moratorium on nuclear testing since 1998 (3, 4). The ninth, North Korea, responding to international pressure, stopped testing warhead detonations (as opposed to missile flights) in 2017 (6). If the United States ratified the CTBT, joining the 168 countries who have already done so (4), there is a good chance that the other holdout countries would ratify the treaty as well (7).

Dee et al . (Reports, 27 March 2020, p. 1477) claimed that large volcanic eruptions do not produce a detectable El Niño response. However, they come to the wrong conclusion because they have ignored the fundamental climate response to large volcanic eruptions: Volcanic eruptions cool the surface, thus masking the relative El Niño warming.

Significance Impacts of global warming on agricultural productivity have been evaluated extensively. The implications of sudden cooling for global crop growth, however, are as yet little understood. While crop failures after historic volcanic eruptions are documented, a nuclear conflict can cause even more severe and longer-lasting climate anomalies. India and Pakistan are contributing to a de facto Asian arms race and the political instability in South Asia increasingly imposes a global threat. Based on comprehensive climate and crop model ensemble simulations, we provide critical quantitative information on how sudden cooling and perturbations of precipitation and solar radiation could disrupt food production and trade worldwide for about a decade—more than the impact from anthropogenic climate change by late century., A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using

As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), several climate modeling centers performed a coordinated pre-study experiment with interactive stratospheric aerosol models simulating the volcanic aerosol cloud from an eruption resembling the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption (VolMIP-Tambora ISA ensemble). The pre-study provided the ancillary ability to assess intermodel diversity in the radiative forcing for a large stratospheric-injecting equatorial eruption when the volcanic aerosol cloud is simulated interactively. An initial analysis of the VolMIP-Tambora ISA ensemble showed large disparities between models in the stratospheric global mean aerosol optical depth (AOD). In this study, we now show that stratospheric global mean AOD differences among the participating models are primarily due to differences in aerosol size, which we track here by effective radius. We identify specific physical and chemical processes that are missing in some models and/or parameterized differently between models, which are together causing the differences in effective radius. In particular, our analysis indicates that interactively tracking hydroxyl radical (OH) chemistry following a large volcanic injection of sulfur dioxide (SO2) is an important factor in allowing for the timescale for sulfate formation to be properly simulated. In addition, depending on the timescale of sulfate formation, there can be a large difference in effective radius and subsequently AOD that results from whether the SO2 is injected in a single model grid cell near the location of the volcanic eruption, or whether it is injected as a longitudinally averaged band around the Earth.