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Research on executive action often assumes that presidents face an either/or decision between issuing an administrative order and seeking legislation. This premise, however, ignores differing structural characteristics of administrative and legislative policy vehicles. This paper will argue that, rather than see administrative actions as equivalent to legislation, presidents understand the distinct advantages and disadvantages each policy instrument brings and act accordingly. Using data linking executive orders and presidential legislative proposals, as well as a case study of the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, we show that when presidents issue more executive orders, they do not issue fewer legislative proposals. In fact, presidents sometimes follow up on significant executive orders with proposals to enshrine them in statute. Our research supports viewing executive orders as a tool in the legislative toolbox, rather than a challenge to the legislative process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is prepared for the presentation at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association (January 7-9, 2016; San Juan, Puerto Rico). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The story of American foreign relations as it is traditionally told is the story of presidential power. While few doubt that the president is the dominant actor in foreign affairs, new work has called into question many assumptions about Congress's supposed weakness over executive actions in foreign affairs. Yet this scholarship tests congressional influence almost exclusively during the postwar era--a period in which the executive has had undisputed informational advantages and in which Congress has rarely exercised its formal powers to limit presidential action. Drawing on extensive archival research, this paper uses historical data from the American empire in the Philippines to investigate presidential power in an earlier age of congressional dominance. I find that fear of congressional sanction profoundly shaped the development of American colonialism, leading presidents and executive officials to design colonial policies to avoid congressional scrutiny and control. Ironically, it was the power of Congress, rather than its weakness, that increased the executive's power in American foreign affairs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Are feminist values overpowered by party identification when evaluating female candidates for office? On the one hand, it seems intuitive that individuals holding feminist values would want to increase the absolute number of female representatives. On the other hand, if the females running for office do not represent the policy interests of those individuals it is possible that they are willing to give up increased descriptive representation for greater substantive representation. In this paper, I explore the question of whether representation has more to do with candidates' ideas or the candidates' ascriptive characteristics. To do this, I use data from the ANES to examine the extent to which party identification moderates the relationship between feminist values and female candidate evaluations. Given the limited time devoted to and interest in becoming informed about politics, individuals often rely on cues, such as stereotypes related to gender and party identification, to inform their political evaluations of candidates. Focusing on female candidate evaluations given by a group of people who are most likely to hold opposing views to traditional gender stereotypes (i.e., individuals holding feminist values) provides a unique opportunity to understand the relationship between feminist values and representation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contemporary literature examining the adoption of morality-based public policy takes for granted the relationship between morality policy adoption and public opinion, viewing the adoption of morality-based policies as inherently normative in nature and based in an understanding of opinion-policy linkage. This paper seeks to reexamine the premises of older studies of morality-based policy adoption (Fairbanks 1977) by attempting to differentiate the effects of state-level cultural and social characteristics on policy adoption in relation to that of more traditional economic concerns. Which ultimately holds greater sway in relation to morality-based policies, the normative concerns of the people in relation to state political culture or the more elite-level concerns of economics and budget balancing? This paper looks at various excise taxes as well as lottery adoption and gambling legalization to examine the behavior of legislatures when political cultures clash with economic realities. While our results indicate that economic effects do moderate the actions of legislatures, they do so in ways different than expected. This paper also does not find significant results for the adoption of lotteries and gambling, indicating that fiscal conditions do not significantly influence legislators to act against their state's political culture in search of greater revenue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two pivotal electoral moments rocked the party establishment in the last half of the twentieth century. The 1974 wave election produced the "Watergate Babies," a reform-minded heavily Democratic group of 92 new members who were intent on changing the seniority system, championing social issues, and challenging interventionist policies. The 1994 election was a sweeping Republican victory, giving the GOP control of both chambers for the first time in four decades. Its "Contract with America" called for lowering taxes, dismantling portions of the social welfare system, and reducing the size of government. Much has been written about the two classes, particularly their revolutionary ideas and staying power. Less has been said about the ongoing impact they had as their careers progressed in the public arena. The study compares and contrasts career trajectories, institutional changes, and legislative accomplishments of the two congressional classes at their respective twenty-year anniversary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does education affect individuals? democratic values under different regime types? Using Mexican public opinion data of 2008, I find that educational attainment can foster prodemocracy values and political tolerance even under authoritarian regimes. This impact is due to educations? role in fostering critical thinking, exposing individuals to different political opinions, and strengthening self-esteem. I find further evidence of education's "democratizing effect;" I find that the impact of education is greater among individuals who were educated under democratic regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which examined the democratic attitudes, institutional fragmentation, and support for executive authority in Latin America as of January 2016. Also discussed are the role of political institutions as mediator between citizens' status as electoral winners or losers and their willingness to delegate authority to the executive, as well as the factors affecting such willingness like political knowledge, and ideology.

Since Richard Neustadt suggested in Presidential Power that public prestige is an important factor in presidential success in Congress, scholars have debated the accuracy of his claim. In this paper I answer three questions concerning the effect of presidential approval on congressional support for the president's legislative positions. Does a blanket effect exist, in what political climate (divided vs. unified government) is this effect most pronounced, and on which legislators is the effect strongest? A key feature of this study is my investigation of how changes in presidential approval impact the most electorally vulnerable, marginal members of Congress. Contrary to conventional wisdom, previous scholars have not been able to show that marginal members are any more susceptible to changes in presidential approval than safe members. This study has greater leverage on this question than past studies because of an expanded and more recent data set, as well as slight methodological tweaks. Using regression analysis, I test my hypotheses with data on presidential support in the House of Representatives from the presidency of Carter through Bush, Jr. (1977-2008). I also use these tests as a way of evaluating two alternate measures of presidential public prestige; the first being approval, and the second being the difference between approval and disapproval. Scholars have argued that the latter may better capture the public's actual perception of the president's job performance, as it accounts for changes in disapproval as well as approval (Brody 1991), thus I will estimate each model twice, once with each measure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A majority of American voters currently have a meaningful opportunity to vote before Election Day, whether in person or by mail. As such, voter mobilization experiments and observational studies of turnout need to consider voting as a dependent variable that occurs over time. This paper presents three statistical methods for estimating turnout across a multi-day voting period: binary logistic regression, multinomial logistic regression, and Cox proportional hazards survival analysis. Ultimately, survival analysis allows for the estimation of treatment effects over time and the potential to test for interactions between covariates and time. A discussion of the implications for researchers and campaign professionals is also included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty is, at times, an inherent part of the policy process. Uncertainty exists with respect to the extent and scope of a perceived public problem, but it also extends to whether a remedial policy designed to mitigate the problem will have the desired effect. When uncertainty is present in policy debates, decision-makers in government must decide whether to rely on the judgment of experts or the preferences of their constituents. Hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") is a relatively new technological advancement in mining that contains elements of uncertainty. Decision-makers at all levels of government (federal, state, and local) have wrestled with this uncertainty, balancing the need for informed, pragmatic policies with the desires and preferences of local communities. This research presents the preliminary results of a case study that examines the mechanisms through which policies associated with hydraulic fracturing were adopted. Consideration is given to the degree of public involvement in the decision-making process, specifically as to whether communities have pursued local bans on fracking. It is argued fracking provides an excellent example of policy development in the United States while also providing a means to assess important theories of political science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I present original data collected for over three dozen factors capturing constitutional provisions for judicial independence for all 50 US states, from statehood to 2015. Drawing on insights from research on comparative courts, this data set goes far beyond simple appointment procedures, and includes tenure, rule-making ability, removal procedures, and other factors affecting the relationship between the judiciary and political branches. I further discuss how this data could be used to address debates over the role of judicial elections, as well as how changes in political conditions affect the role of courts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The power to forbid political parties from running for office is an important instrument in the arsenal of both democracies and electoral autocracies. Although party bans can significantly affect electoral outcomes--whether by increasing the likelihood of an authoritarian incumbent's reelection or by decreasing the threat of an authoritarian opposition party's dismantling of democracy--which parties are targeted for bans, and when, remains unclear. In this paper, I address these questions using a game theoretic model. I show that different kinds of opposition party extremism have different, and often surprising, implications for the possibility of a ban. While an opposition party's "insider status" decreases the probability of a ban, so does its militarism; and a party's ideological extremism has an ambiguous, potentially non-monotone effect on the likelihood that it is banned. In addition to these results, I demonstrate that the involvement of a court in the banning decision has surprising effects: While the court may function as a "veto player" in situations when the court prefers the opposition party to be in office, banning is not automatic if the court shares the incumbent party's interests. Lastly, the unavailability of other instruments of electoral manipulation has a positive effect on the probability of a ban, suggesting one reason party bans may be so prevalent among democracies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kruger and Dunning (1999) demonstrated in their work on knowledge and self assessment, "that when people are incompetent... Not only do they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the ability to realize it." Across the political spectrum each of the different political ideologies compete to prove what they believe is their ideologies' monopoly on the truth. Does ideology affect how people perceive their knowledge of political issues? This study attempts to answer these questions with original survey data by examining the extent to which overestimation of political knowledge is correlated with the valence of ideological self-placement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When analyzing voting behavior, most analyses focus on policy preferences of individuals who are bound by the policies implemented by the electorate of those politicians that win office. In many policy realms, however, the constituent voters are subjected to the implemented policy only if they choose to engage in certain activities. This project focuses on one such policy area: foreclosure law. While elected politicians enact relevant policies, only those voters that choose to participate in the mortgage market are directly affected by those policies. Individuals that do not wish to participate in the mortgage market may instead choose to rent their homes, pay cash, or live with other family members and thereby avoid falling subject to foreclosure law. This paper develops a formal model and empirical analysis of policy-making and economic outcomes in such environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses panel survey data to examine how scandals affect perceptions of elected officials' character. Scandals' effects vary depending on the type of misbehavior that is alleged to have occurred, with sex scandals having far larger impact on impressions of the incumbent's character. Scandals impact perceptions of incumbents' integrity far more than they impact perceptions of competence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tests a hypothesized relationship between socialization variables, such as the family as well as in-school- and out-of-school environments, on students' liberal-conservative orientations at the University of Central Arkansas and University of Illinois at Springfield. Using survey data from up to 737 students as well as relying on a cross-sectional research design and OLS estimators, we found evidence that socialization variables impact students' liberal-conservative orientations at both universities. As such, regional variation seems to have little or no impact on students' political orientations. In addition, we found some evidence that two control variables, namely religiosity and low-income family background, have some effects on students' liberal-conservative orientations. Our findings also suggest that instead of just "liberalizing," a majority of students has actually become more moderate than liberal. Finally, we found that students who are unlikely to follow their parents' political orientations tend to be those who hold different party identification than their parents and those who tend to be more liberal in their political views as well as those who come from low-income families. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Popular culture, particularly motion pictures, offer a view into a society's norms, beliefs and political culture. While that view might be skewed from time to time, it is still a useful way to discern "proper behavior" and accepted norms. This paper argues that artifacts from popular culture can be used as data, open to interpretation and analysis. To demonstrate this, the paper utilizes a case study approach to illustrate how film can be useful in identifying political traits and culture. By analyzing films about international events and situations as examples, the paper identifies how American films have portrayed other countries and cultures to better understand the evolution of American political culture. Using a case study approach to the topic, the paper demonstrates there has been a change in political culture with regards to the "other," and film and popular culture help to illustrate and evaluate that change. It concludes by arguing that the analyses of the messages and lessons contained in national cinemas can be transferred to the classroom to help students improve media literacy as well understand political issues from different perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Who is more likely to defect in an authoritarian regime, and when? I develop a model of legislative defection and argue that the regime's co-optation strategy can predict legislator loyalty. I begin by de_ning two distinct groups: those co-opted by the \tolerate" strategy, and those co-opted by the \assimilate" strategy. Combining Congressional roll call data from Peru's Fujimori regime (1990-2000) with person-level data on regime insiders, I analyze aggregate voting patterns throughout the time period and two critical votes where legislative defections helped to bring down the regime. Overall, the findings show that those asked to assimilate with the regime, or those that had to voice their support publicly, defected at much lower rates than those that were asked to tolerate the regime. This highlights the importance of public commitment to the regime and public expression of preferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Civil service systems are commonly both praised for assuring bureaucratic expertise and criticized for obstructing democratic accountability. In this paper I argue that, even when limitations on the ability of politicians to appoint agency personnel and review agency decisions are constitutionally protected, the parties in power can often use structural reorganization to accomplish the same partisan objectives as they would have in the absence of such constraints. In particular, they can often use their control over the rules that assign authority and responsibility in the bureaucracy to indirectly determine who is allowed to set agency agendas and override agency policy commitments. To buttress this conjecture I examine the termination rates of all administrative agencies enacted in the executive civil service of Sweden between 1960 and 2014 and show that the risk of termination increases considerably when the policy preferences of an agency's upper management are in conflict with those of the executive cabinet. I conclude that while civil service systems can increase the costs of personnel management, they are typically neither as protective of bureaucratic expertise nor as problematic for democratic accountability as is commonly believed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Roll rates arguably provide a means by which the influence of the majority party on the legislative agenda can be detected (e.g. Cox and McCubbins 2005). However, Krehbiel (2007) argued a null hypothesis of high roll rates for the majority party and/or equal roll rates between the majority and minority parties was unwarranted. I extend and reproduce Krehbiel's key results using simulations of a legislature with spatial voting on one and multiple dimensions, demonstrating that somewhat 'partisan' roll rates will be observed even in the absence of any party influence including even a correlation between party membership and preferences. I then use these simulations to develop baseline nullhypothesis roll rates for partisan and non-partisan legislatures that can then be compared with observed roll rates across sessions of Congress and state legislatures to evaluate the extent to which there is in fact evidence for party influence on the legislative agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper suggests a linguistic model for extracting political attitudes and examines a new approach of measuring political polarization on Twitter. In recent years, social network analysis and sentiment analysis have been utilized to describe a spectrum of policy positions. On this subject, we focus on "modality", which is a cross-language grammatical concept and defined by a distinction between "assertive" and "non-assertive" to resolve shortcomings of the previous studies. We emphasize the syntactic aspect that is robust against contextual differences while existing sentiment analyses have dealt with it as a lexical item. We hypothesize that every tweet can be separated into parts of proposition and modality according to a syntactic rule suggested by modality theory, and latent semantic analyses of the modal expressions can extract the distinction of modality sharply. We collect political tweets in Japanese, which is known as having a typical syntactic characteristic in modality theory, and evaluate our hypothesis by comparison with human-coding, network analysis and sentiment analysis. Our approach can also apply to other languages of which modality theory suggests syntactic features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This working paper focuses on teaching students about social and political inequalities through an extended analysis of the meaning, assumptions and implications of environmental justice. When considering inequalities, the environment is not typically a primary focus. But, thinking about environmental justice, sometimes referred to as environmental equity or environmental racism, will force students to consider the ethical and political question about who gets what and why - and how much or how little. Brehm and Pellow's examination of environmental injustice finds these inequities to be rooted in broader economic, political, and social inequalities ... imbedded in our social discourses, structures, and institutions (Berry 2013). They consider economic and discrimination based explanations for environmental injustice, finding that "politics are clearly at play in both. The political power of communities, states, and industries is inseparable from racial and economic forces driving environmental inequalities" (Brehm and Pellow 2013). So, students will begin with the Environmental Protection Agency's protocol and definition of environmental justice: "The fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race, color, national origin, or income with respect to the development, implementation or enforcement of environmental laws, regulations, and policies" (EPA). Looking through the lenses of procedural, geographic and social equity (Bullard 2005), students will build a framework to investigate what contributes to and produces unequal environmental protection. As a result, the environmental justice framework will develop their understanding of the relationship between social class and environmental inequalities, broaden their knowledge about democratic institutions and policy making, and expand their awareness of various inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research suggests that distrust in government decreases voting for the incumbent party in presidential elections, but existing work does not theorize about or test for such relationships in congressional elections. Given that variation in trust in government is driven primarily by citizens' attitudes towards Congress, not the president (e.g., Keele 2007), it seems reasonable to think that its effects may play at least as great a role in elections to Congress. In particular, this study tests three alternative hypotheses. First, distrust in government may decrease voting for all congressional candidates from the president's party, regardless of incumbency status. This would be consistent with theories about how congressional voters hold the president's party responsible for national conditions (e.g., Fiorina 1981). Second, distrust in government may decrease voting for all congressional incumbents, regardless of partisan affiliation. This would be consistent with the theory that the value of congressional incumbency is contextual (e.g., Jacobson 2013). Third, distrust may decrease voting for candidates from the party that controls Congress, regardless of incumbency status. This would be consistent with the theory that congressional voters view the majority party as responsible for the performance of Congress (Cox and McCubbins 2005; Jones and McDermott 2009). I will test these hypotheses using survey data from ANES. The results will inform our understanding of several distinct literatures, including work on the political consequences of trust, work on the interbranch differences in responsibility for national conditions, and work on party-based responsibility versus incumbency-based responsibility in Congress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What kind of countries comply with international treaties? While some literature investigates the impact of domestic politics on treaty compliance, these literature mainly emphasises the relative advantage of democracies at compliance, which leads to little attention toward explaining the variation of compliance behaviour among authoritarian regimes. This research seeks to address this oversight by looking into the compliance potential of authoritarian regimes by shedding light on the electoral competition in some authoritarian regimes. The electoral competition generates political accountability toward their electorate including foreign policy performance. I argue that authoritarian regimes with electoral competition are more likely to comply with international treaties because of the high ex post costs that the regimes face in violating the treaties. The failure of compliance with international treaties gains a negative reputation internationally, proving the incompetence of the incumbents. This situation induces the pressure from political oppositions and electorates, and negatively affects incumbents in upcoming election. Accordingly, the more accountable the regime is toward the electorate, the less likely it is that the regime will violate an international treaty. The result of empirical analysis employing event data on the agreements and its compliance on bilateral territorial issues provides strong evidence to support my argument. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much of the literature on municipal bond elections has focused on the financial and debt aspects of the resolution or what factors determine whether or not a resolution will pass. Previous research has focused on the effect of demographics, form of elections, and economic conditions, showing that these factors impact the passage of municipal bonds. Past research has also shown that political variables-such as partisanship or a politician's influence--also impact the outcome of bond votes. However, the factors that influence the type of municipal bond (i.e. infrastructure, recreation, public safety) that appears on the ballot have been relatively understudied. We address this hole in the literature by drawing upon public choice and policy agenda setting literatures to examine why some issues are chosen for bond measures over others. We use data from municipal bond elections in the state of Texas from 2005 to 2015 combined with city and individual level data and to examine the effect of political and demographic variables on municipal bond consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scholars often take a generic view of social media usage by assuming that all social media platforms require the same strategy and have the same impact. However, online communities have distinct identities that may limit or increase the effectiveness of certain strategies. Further, not all political entities have the same goal in social media use nor the same interaction with followers. To treat social media use as uniform across cases is to limit the scholarly understanding of the political application of these media. We seek to address this hole in the literature by examining how nongovernmental organizations with different purposes (e.g., advocacy, fundraising, social services, etc.) use Twitter in distinct ways (e.g, information dissemination, community building, fundraising, outreach, etc.). By examining one type of social media outlet, we hold constant the impact of online community characteristics allowing us to focus on the impact of organizational purpose and social media use. To evaluate this question we use data drawn directly from NGO Twitter accounts combined with organizational and financial data from the National Center for Charitable Statistics. We find preliminary evidence that organizational differences do drive different uses for and outcomes of social media usage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Partisan stability has received a lot of attention in American politics. MacKuen et al. and Green et al. disagree over the strength of partisan ties nationally. Less work has been done on the state level to judge if the stability of partisanship differs across states. Using data from Enns and Koch (2013), methodology from Green et al. (2002), and a random effects model, this paper shows that partisan stability varies widely across states. Confirming what others have found, the South does more permanently respond to shocks over time to macropartisanship. In addition to the traditional explanation of economic performance and presidential approval, ideology is introduced as another important factor in explaining macropartisan change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines how the public reacts to the use of deception by political elites. Results from an experiment in which subjects are exposed to lying or honest messages attributed to either Republican or Democratic politicians, demonstrate that the public does care about and respond negatively to the use of deception. However, this is only under highly limited circumstances: only Democratic subjects punished the use of deception, and only when they were lied to by a fellow Democrat. These results are suggestive of the important role of trust in government in political communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a long held belief that democracy and economics have a positive correlation. As the freedom of a nation enlarges, so does the economy. Most studies look at the GDP to measure the growth of the economy and its success or failure. However, this assessment does not allow for variables such as corrupt government, and thus does not depict an accurate picture of the people that live in these nations. This paper focuses on the middle class of six African countries, using the sum of the middle three quintiles of income share to define middle class. Data from Polity IV was used to gather the information on each of the country's level of democracy. These factors were compared regarding trends between the income share of the middle class and the level of democracy. After examining the data, it was concluded that there is a negative correlation between democracy and income share held by the middle class. The small sample size could have an effect on the data and may account for the negative correlation, requiring further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how two state-level Latino constituencies -- their percent of the population and their percent of voters -- influence the propensity of states to pass restrictive immigration policy, testing two competing theories. The racial influence hypothesis suggests that larger Latino constituencies will lead to fewer restrictive immigration policies, while the racial threat hypothesis suggests the opposite relationship. Using state-level data from 2009 through 2012, we find support for both theories depending on the constituency examined. States with larger Latino populations tend to pass more restrictive immigration policies, but when Latinos have greater electoral strength states tend to pass fewer restrictive policies. This relationship is interactive such that increases in Latino electoral strength act to mitigate the positive effect of Latino population size on restrictive immigration laws. Finally, we also show that the influence of Latino electoral strength on state immigration policy is indirect, meditated by their electoral influence on the partisan and ethnic composition of state legislatures. Our findings emphasize the importance of voting for minority substantive representation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How has political party and ideology changed in the Florida executive branch over the past 60 years? How have individual governors affected their party and the state? What have been the notable achievements of these governors and how do their personalities and ideologies compare? This paper traces the control of the governor's office through three phases: from the Democratic split over segregation and apportionment, through a period of progressive Democratic reunification, and to the current dominance by Republicans. It concludes by looking at the future prospects of both parties for controlling the executive branch in the Sunshine State. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Looking at recent presidential primary elections in an historical context, this paper seeks to better understand and measure how religion affects candidate selection and party platforms for the two major political parties in America. To some extent, the candidate's religion and the presentation of that belief is merely an integrated part of the overall candidacy. However, this study employs some content analysis and historical context to isolate religious aspects of the presidential primaries and test their effects on the eventual nominee and the party's political platform. The representation of religious candidates, views, and sects early in the candidate selection process appears to affect the construction of platforms for both parties later in the election cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the nineteenth century transnational women's political activists claimed that female executives were less likely to take a country to war than male executives. The idea was reiterated by feminist activists in the 1970s and 1980s and is found in some feminist international relations and evolutionary psychology scholarship today. Whether female or male, however, executives can seldom make war on their own; they need the support of legislatures and the state to sustain military activities. We test the proposition that female leaders are more pacifist using newly assembled time-series cross-section data covering all countries in the world from 1960 through 2012. It records not just the presence of female executives, but the proportion of women in parliament and in cabinet posts as well. By merging our data with the Uppsala Conflict Data Program dataset on militarized disputes, we are able to test whether women's representation in various kinds of national-level office influences a state's propensity to go to various kinds of war. Preliminary multivariate analyses reveal that female leadership has more complex effects on the likelihood that a country will be involved in war than previously believed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In most countries, elections are complex events, presenting voters with an extensive choice menu. In the modeling of electoral behavior, however, much of this complexity seems to get lost. This paper outlines a novel approach to understanding vote choice that relies on ideas from consumer research. The approach is slowly gaining ground but remains on the periphery of the discipline. The paper shows the potential benefits of choice sets, outstanding methodological issues, as well as potential domains of application. It finishes by sketching potential domains of application in electoral research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies linking local issue severity to public opinion often treat the effect as homogeneous, suggesting a straightforward relationship between issue exposure and policy opinions. It is more likely that individuals perceive local issues in conditional ways. We advance a theory of motivated reasoning whereby beliefs and worldviews act as a lens through which individuals interpret the world around them. When a local issue conforms to individuals' prior beliefs, they will be even more likely to perceive risk and call for policy action. When the information presented to them is incongruent with their worldview, increasing issue severity will have a minimal effect. We test our theory by combining an indicator of water scarcity with data from two national public opinion surveys about water issues. Using OLS regression to analyze interactive models predicting risk perception and policy preferences, we find that water scarcity drives individuals with opposing ecological worldviews even further apart. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The underlying question driving this project is the question of how Congressional districts that appear to be moderate in presidential elections occasionally elect candidates to the US House that appear to be far more extreme in their political views. Our testing focused on two possible explanations, one centered in Downsian thinking that would indicate extreme candidates are less likely to win, while the other approach, championed by Plame, argues that extreme candidates alienate moderate voters and lower turnout, thus allowing the extreme candidate to win. Our results indicate that while the Downsian explanation appears to hold up somewhat better under testing, the results are not strong enough to offer any conclusive answers at this time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conventional wisdom presents the one-party South as an authoritarian regime ruled by a narrow economic elite, whose dominance was guaranteed as much by lack of partisan competition as by widespread disenfranchisement. I argue instead that Democratic primaries created a "selectoral connection" that induced office-holder to represent the eligible electorate, which was all-white but economically diverse. I support this argument with data on congressional voting patterns, primary elections, and opinion polls from the 1930s-50s. Focusing on economic issues, where whites' preferences were most diverse, I show that Southern MCs were broadly in step with the Southern white public. Southern MCs were also responsive to cross-sectional differences in their selectorates' preferences, and in the Senate responsiveness was at least as strong as in the non-South. In sum, the South's lack of partisan competition did not obviously inhibit congressional representation of the white public. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What are the economic determinants of support for democracy in Latin America? Does inequality depress democratic support, and if so, is actual or perceived inequality more important? I argue that while actual inequality affects political support, perceptions of distributive unfairness are also undermining support for democracy in a number of Latin American countries. A multilevel analysis of the 2011 Latinobarometer survey supports this theory, and I find that the quality of democracy in a given country has an important conditioning effect on the relationship between perceived distributive unfairness and democratic support. In underperforming democracies, people are less likely to support democracy when they perceive the income distribution as unfair. In countries where democracy is performing strongly, however, perceived unfairness is actually associated with increased levels of support for democracy. When citizens experience quality democracy, they see democracy as a legitimate means to address their country's most pressing problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I argue that political elites intend the popular women's issue label to serve as an issue frame. I evaluate how individuals, especially women, respond to this frame. An original theoretical framework explains how identities, specifically partisan and gender identities, influence conceptions of women's issues. The potentially distinct definitions of women's issues among Democratic and Republican individuals may serve as the cause for their disparate responses to the women's issue frame. A nationally representative public opinion survey containing questions about individuals' identities and their understanding of women's issues is used to test the theory. In this analysis, I find that Republicans and Democrats identify distinct sets of issues as women's issues. Additionally, women and Democrats possess a more developed understanding of women's issues than men and Republicans, respectively. These findings suggest that identities limit the success of the women's issue frame. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In ways similar to employers, politicians and citizens in general, bureaucrats use name cues when making decisions that turn out to discriminate against minorities. This poses a threat to the promise of modern bureaucracy, namely to eradicate discrimination through universalistic treatment. The political question therefore is whether such discrimination can be eliminated by the way bureaucracy is organized. Three randomized experiments support Lipsky's (1980) notion that bureaucrats use discriminating coping mechanisms when they feel demands exceed available resources. Most notably, in a field experiment teachers were randomly provided with resources to teach two additional lessons a week. In a subsequent fictitious survey experiment the teachers were asked to include a new boy with either immigrant or native name in their classroom. Discrimination was eradicated in the field treatment group, but persisted in the control group. Even if the solution to bureaucratic discrimination may not be ever increasing resources, these results raise confidence that discrimination can be reined by the way the bureaucracy is organized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In democratic states, scholars often attribute geographic divisions in elections to voter identity cleavages, such as ethnicity. Yet, unlike in democratic countries, local dynamics, proving coercive and capable of voter mobilization, have a strong influence on voter distribution in elections under authoritarian regimes. Within such regimes, local elites utilize illegal tools, such as vote-buying, to garner votes for their bosses. In this paper, I reveal that cleavages under authoritarian regimes do not follow voter preference or their identity, but, rather, are determined by the degree of mobilizational ability of local elites under specific local contexts. I conduct a case study of the 2004 presidential election in Ukraine. My research focuses on two south-eastern regions, Dnipropetrovs'k oblast' and Kherson oblast'. These regions share similar ethnic, linguistic, and historical identity. However, their electoral dynamics differ. In the former region, the candidate from eastern side of Ukraine (pro-incumbent) beat the opponent (anti-incumbent), who was supported in central-western regions, by a wide margin. In the latter region these candidates closely contested. I argue that this dissimilarity of electoral results are determined by (1) the degree of the elite unity, (2) the degree of autonomy of voters from the control of local elites, and (3) the economic relationship with Donets'k. My argument has implications for the further understanding of the relationship between electoral geography and the local dynamics of political mobilization in Ukraine, and, more generally, electoral cleavages under authoritarian regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Narratives surrounding womanhood and motherhood provide important clues about the political citizenship of women in the U.S. today. In particular, narratives about motherhood and the public policies that accompany them have the ability to disrupt the potential of many women from becoming actively political in an electoral sense. This paper looks at post-partum and early parenthood policies including breastfeeding promotion and maternity leave policy affecting childbearing women in order to link such policies to women's underrepresentation in elected politics. Such narratives have a profound effect on nascent political activity of otherwise ambitious and qualified women, thus creating a cycle where women's representation is inextricably linked to embedded and even legislated social norms surrounding women as mothers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do authoritarian regimes care about the rule of law? By investigating China's political selection system, this paper finds that authoritarian regimes do care about the rule of law and promote it at the local level by providing local officials with promotion incentives when they enforce legal institutions effectively. This claim is demonstrated by examining rule of law measures in predicting local officials' promotion in China. Analysis of the State Council documents and 22 regulations covering over 70 percent of the countries' municipal leaders shows that formal evaluation rules for local leaders in some localities increasingly include metrics assessing the legal environment. Statistical analysis using a panel of administrative lawsuits in 279 prefectures in China during 2008-2012 supports the argument: the probability of prefecture party secretaries' promotion is highly correlated to rule of law concerns. Conversely, local officials who fail to maintain social stability, as indicated by their failure to appease social protests through legalized channels of dispute resolution, are less likely to be promoted. Using the 2011 Chinese General Social Survey data, this paper finds that citizens trust local governments more in prefectures with better legal environments, which explains why authoritarian rulers seek to promote the rule of law at the local level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how intense policy minorities within the majority party in the House of Representatives affect House procedure, particularly the rules placed on legislation. Existing theories suggest that when an intense policy minority within the majority party exist party leaders will alter procedures and rules to benefit the intense minority instead of the party median. We apply the first empirical test of this theory by looking at legislation supported by the Congressional Black Caucus and the Blue Dog Democrats in the 111th session of the House of Representatives, as well as legislation from the Tea Party Caucus in the 112th session. Results suggest that majority party leaders do indeed allow special rules to deviate to the intense minority, on issues pursued by the intense minority, as long at the issues are not salient to the full caucus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent GOTV experiments suggest that the decision to vote involves an intertemporal trade-off. Whereas the transaction costs of voting are incurred on or before Election Day, its expressive benefits are realized in the future. In this article, I draw on a vast literature in psychology and economics to propose a model and a measure of time discounting in political behavior. The ability to delay gratification predicts a myriad of desirable outcomes, including voter turnout. My model posits that it enhances the effects of political stimuli such as social norms when the rewards are deferred. As a result, more patient individuals are more likely to vote, and to lie afterwards if they do not vote. In the empirical analysis, I use an incentivized measure from a representative US panel (N=3,027). My results show that the effect of patience on self-reported turnout is robust to demographic controls, risk aversion, and measurement error. I leverage novel estimation techniques to demonstrate that monetary delay-discounting experiments provide reliable elicitations of time preferences that map onto political behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign aid often appears to contribute to leader survival, corruption, patronage, and poor governance; yet we know little about when and why these effects occur. I propose a formal model to explain when governments are successful at using aid for political ends. The model illustrates the strategic interaction between governments interested in winning an upcoming election, and a donor interested in maximizing the effectiveness of an aid project. I show that the ability of donors to prevent the political capture of aid depends upon the policy objectives of the donor and the level of political competition in the recipient state. I confirm these propositions by evaluating the effect of aid spending on the outcome of all developing country elections from 1960 to 2011. To assess causation, I instrument for aid spending using regional aid shocks. The results confirm that aid has a positive effect on the probability an incumbent is re-elected, especially when donors have political interests in the recipient state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What is the relationship between theology and political theory? Specifically, how can theology inform members of a religious tradition about the purposes of politics and government in democracies? To answer these questions, this paper focuses on one aspect of this topic, the relationship between eschatology and expected political purposes among theological schools of contemporary Evangelical Protestant Christians in the United States. This paper examines the eschatological expectations derived from Dispensationalism in comparison with older Amillennial, Postmillennial, and Historic Premillennial theologies common to Christian denominations, and explores how these theologies inform its adherents about political purposes of civil society. The author concludes that adherents of Dispensational theology face an inherent contradiction between an expected dystopian future and the success of political initiatives and government to solve public problems, whereas Amillennial, Postmillennial, and Historic Premillennial theologies offer the possibility of a more positive outlook for the role of government in solving problems in society. As a result, a conservative, anti-government political view emerges from Dispensational theology that limits political activism to constrain evil rather than a positive approach to solve public problems. This paper takes a theoretical approach to examine the relationship between theology and political purposes. Furthermore, this topic is significant, because the relationship between theological expectations and political ends should be examined to better understand how certain members of society view the expected performance of democratic institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Movements to decentralize the delivery of public services in many countries across the world has increased the importance of understanding what impacts the performance of local governments. This study examines how three crucial factors { managerial quality, political competition within local governments, and spatial dependence between local governments { affects performance outcomes. While managerial quality has been studied extensively in research on local performance, political competition and spatial dependence among local governments has received little to no attention. I use spatial econometrics and data on more than 5,000 municipalities in Brazil to examine how these factors affect three performance outcomes: housing infrastructure, school enrollments, and management of the Bolsa Família program. The results of this study suggest that while managerial quality has a positive effect on some performance outcomes, political competition seems to matter more for improving local performance. In addition, spatial interdependence among local governments has the potential to improve performance outcomes. When outcomes improve in one municipality, neighboring municipalities are likely to see improvements as well. These findings suggest that future studies on local governments should consider how competition and spatial associations shape various performance outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities have been building amenities and facilities to attract conventions, tourism and mega-events for several decades. Mega-events, especially Presidential Nominating Conventions, can bring in revenue and media exposure. They also highlight the political career of the sitting mayor, who are often the entrepreneur leading the bid. Therefore, we expect that cities with mayoral systems (strong or weak) will be more likely to bid for conventions than those with more professionalized council-manager forms of government. We also expect that national parties will prefer to work with a mayor with more formal power than ceremonial. We also posit turnover and political party of the mayor matter in the process. We test these hypotheses by analyzing data from 130 cities that have bid from 1992-2012 for Presidential Nominating Conventions while controlling for other influential factors such as arena size, airline hub, median income, presidential margins, previous bids, mayoral turnover and the alignment of the mayor and government of the same party. We find that city structure and mayoral turnover matters in terms of who receives invitations to bid and who submits bids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]