The Electoral Sources of Immigration Policies in the American States.

This paper examines how two state-level Latino constituencies -- their percent of the population and their percent of voters -- influence the propensity of states to pass restrictive immigration policy, testing two competing theories. The racial influence hypothesis suggests that larger Latino constituencies will lead to fewer restrictive immigration policies, while the racial threat hypothesis suggests the opposite relationship. Using state-level data from 2009 through 2012, we find support for both theories depending on the constituency examined. States with larger Latino populations tend to pass more restrictive immigration policies, but when Latinos have greater electoral strength states tend to pass fewer restrictive policies. This relationship is interactive such that increases in Latino electoral strength act to mitigate the positive effect of Latino population size on restrictive immigration laws. Finally, we also show that the influence of Latino electoral strength on state immigration policy is indirect, meditated by their electoral influence on the partisan and ethnic composition of state legislatures. Our findings emphasize the importance of voting for minority substantive representation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]