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Accurate estimation of crop yield before harvest is critical for sustaining agricultural markets and ensuring food security. Remote sensing data have been demonstrated as a useful tool for estimating crop yields. Previous studies show that high spatial and temporal resolution vegetation index from remote sensing data fusion better explained spatial variability of yield in central Iowa. This paper extends the study area over 10 major agricultural states in the United States and further examines the added value by using Landsat-8, Sentinel-2 and MODIS images from 2016 and 2017. The large area data processing with Landsat and Sentinel-2 has been enabled by using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) technology. Results show that the combination of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 provides spatial variability of yield at field scales and explains yield variability better than using single data source alone even at the state-level.

Agitation in persons with dementia (PWD) poses major health risks both for themselves and for their caregivers. Passive sensing based continuous behavior tracking can prevent the escalation of such episodes. But, predicting such behavior from sensor streams, especially in real-world residential settings, is still an active area of research. Major challenges include the sparsity, unpredictability, and variations in such behavior, as well as the "weak" annotations from real-world participants. This paper proposes a novel approach to overcome these issues in predicting agitation episodes from the PWD's wrist motion data. In a transdisciplinary study on dementia dyads residing in their homes, the PWD motion is continuously sensed from their smart watch inertial sensors, while agitation episodes are actively marked by the caregivers. The data from 10 residential deployments, each with 30 days duration, are analyzed in this paper, and multiple-instance learning (MIL) based models are implemented to learn from such sparse and weakly annotated data. These models are compared with single-instance models in predicting the agitated behavior. The results show the potential of MIL models in sparsely labeled behavior inference from wearables in-the-wild.

The Arctic has become generally a warmer place over the past decades leading to earlier snow melt, permafrost degradation and changing plant communities. Increases in precipitation and local evaporation in the Arctic, known as the acceleration components of the hydrologic cycle, coupled with land cover changes, have resulted in significant changes in the regional surface energy budget. An extensive local evaluation of the two-source energy balance model (TSEB) - a remote sensing-based model using thermal infrared retrievals of land-surface temperature - was performed using tower measurements collected over two flux towers in Greenland’s tundra types and two flux tower sites in Alaska’s boreal forest in all sky conditions in summer. Evaluation results showed a mean turbulent flux errors generally less than 50 W•m-2 at half-hourly timesteps, similar to errors typically reported in surface energy balance modelling studies conducted in more temperate climatic regimes.

Monitoring the effects of water availability on vegetation globally using satellites is important for applications such as drought early warning, precision agriculture, and food security as well as for more broadly understanding relationships between water and carbon cycles. In this global study, we examine how quickly several satellite-based indicators, assumed to have relationships with water availability, respond, on timescales of days to weeks, in comparison with variations in root-zone soil moisture (RZM) that extends to about 1 m depth. The satellite indicators considered are the normalized difference vegetation and infrared indices (NDVI and NDII, respectively) derived from reflectances obtained with moderately wide (20–40 nm) spectral bands in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) and evapotranspiration (ET) estimated from thermal infrared observations and normalized by a reference ET. NDVI is primarily sensitive to chlorophyll contributions and vegetation structure while NDII may contain additional information on water content in leaves and canopy. ET includes both the loss of root zone soil water through transpiration (modulated by stomatal conductance) as well as evaporation from bare soil. We find that variations of these satellite-based drought indicators on time scales of days to weeks have significant correlations with those of RZM in the same water-limited geographical locations that are dominated by grasslands, shrublands, and savannas whose root systems are generally contained within the 1 m RZM layer. Normalized ET interannual variations show generally a faster response to water deficits and enhancements as compared with those of NDVI and NDII, particularly in sparsely vegetated regions.

A newly developed microwave (MW) land surface temperature (LST) product is used to substitute thermal infrared (TIR) based LST in the two-source energy balance approach (TSEB) for estimating ET from space. This TSEB land surface scheme, the Atmosphere Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model framework, is an approach that minimizes sensitivity to absolute biases in input records of LST through the analysis of the rate of temperature change in the morning. This experiment is therefore an important test of the ability to retrieve diurnal temperature information from a constellation of satellites with microwave radiometers that together provide 6–8 observations of Ka-band brightness temperature per location per day. This represents the first ever attempt at a global implementation of ALEXI with MW-based LST and is intended as the first step towards providing all-weather capability to the ALEXI framework. The leveraging of all sky capability of MW sensors is the main motivation of this work, as TIR-based ALEXI is limited to clear sky conditions. The analysis is based on a 9-year long record of ALEXI ET generated with MW-LST as an input, which is compared to an existing implementation of the same framework with thermal infrared based LST. In this study, the MW-LST sampling is restricted to the same clear sky days as in the IR-based implementation to be able to analyse the impact of changing the LST dataset separately from the impact of sampling all-sky conditions. The results show that long-term bulk ET estimates agree with a spatial correlation of 92 % for total ET in the Europe/Africa domain and agreement in seasonal (3-month) totals of 83–97 % depending on the time of year. Most importantly, the ALEXI-MW also matches ALEXI-IR very closely in terms of 3-month inter-annual anomalies, demonstrating its ability to capture the development and extent of drought conditions. The weekly ET output from the two parallel ALEXI implementations is further compared to a common ground measured reference provided by the FLUXNET consortium. Overall, they indicate a surprisingly close match in both performance metrics (correlation and RMSE) for all but the most challenging sites in terms of spatial heterogeneity and level of aridity. Moreover, merging MW- and IR-based ALEXI may provide estimates of ET with a reduced uncertainty, even during nominally clear sky days. It is concluded that a constellation of MW satellites can effectively be used to provide LST for estimating ET through TSEB, which is an important step towards all-sky satellite-based ET estimates.

This study uses correlation analyses to explore relationships between the satellite-derived Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) – which depicts standardized anomalies in an actual to reference evapotranspiration fraction – and various land and atmospheric variables that impact evapotranspiration. Correlations between the ESI and forcing variable anomalies calculated over sub-seasonal time scales were computed at weekly and monthly intervals during the growing season. Overall, the results revealed that the ESI is most strongly correlated to anomalies in soil moisture and 2-m dew point depression. Correlations between the ESI and precipitation were also large across most of the U.S.; however, they were typically smaller than those associated with soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit. In contrast, correlations were much weaker for air temperature, wind speed, and radiation across most of the U.S., with the exception of the south-central U.S. where correlations were large for all variables at some point during the growing season. Together, these results indicate that changes in soil moisture and near-surface atmospheric vapor pressure deficit are better predictors of the ESI than precipitation and air temperature anomalies are by themselves. Large regional and seasonal dependencies were also observed for each forcing variable. Each of the regional and seasonal correlation patterns were similar for ESI anomalies computed over 2-, 4-, and 8-wk time periods; however, the maximum correlations increased as the ESI anomalies were computed over longer time periods and also shifted toward longer averaging periods for the forcing variables.

Accurate meteorological estimates are critical for process-based hydrological simulation and prediction. This presents a significant challenge in mountainous Asia where in situ meteorological stations are limited and major river basins cross international borders. In this context, remotely sensed and model-derived meteorological estimates are often necessary inputs for distributed hydrological analysis. However, these datasets are difficult to evaluate on account of limited access to ground data. In this case, the implications of uncertainty associated with precipitation forcing for hydrological simulations is explored by driving the South Asia Land Data Assimilation System (South Asia LDAS) using a range of meteorological forcing products. MERRA2, GDAS, and CHIRPS produce a wide range of estimates for rainfall, which causes a widespread simulated streamflow and evapotranspiration. A combination of satellite-derived and limited in situ data are applied to evaluate model simulations and, by extension, to constrain the estimates of precipitation. The results show that available gridded precipitation estimates based on in situ data may systematically underestimate precipitation in mountainous regions and that performance of gridded satellite-derived or modeled precipitation estimates varies systematically across the region. Since no station-based data or product including station data is satisfactory everywhere, our results suggest that the evaluation of the hydrological simulation of streamflow and ET can be used as an indirect evaluation of precipitation forcing based on ground-based products or in-situ data. South Asia LDAS produces reasonable evapotranspiration and streamflow when forced with appropriate meteorological forcing and the choice of meteorological forcing should be made based on the geographical location as well as on the purpose of the simulations.

Multi-sensor remote sensing data fusion technologies have been developed and widely applied in recent years, providing a feasible and economical solution to increase the availability of high spatial and temporal resolution data. These methods, however, have been challenging to apply in highly heterogeneous areas, especially in complex agricultural landscapes where there are rapid changes at small scales, while features at larger scales change more slowly. In this study, we developed a novel method to reconstruct daily 30 m Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) using imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Landsat and Landsat-like platforms, and the Cropland Data Layer (CDL). This method utilizes a crop reference curve (CRC) approach, in which a set of NDVI time series are extracted from pure MODIS pixels (250 m resolution) identified using the CDL, and then used to fit Landsat-like observations (30 m). The CRC based method was applied over a complex agricultural landscape in the Choptank River watershed on the Eastern Shore of Maryland. Landsat data from 2013 and 2014 and Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) data from 2018 were used to reconstruct 30 m daily NDVI maps for major crop types. Results show that the relative error (RE) in reconstructed NDVI is around 6–8% during periods of rapid crop growth, and 3–5% during peak periods when growth is slow. The accuracy of the CRC method outperforms a standard image pair-based data fusion algorithm (Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model; STARFM), which yields RE of 4–9% in slow-growth periods and 10–16% in fast-growth periods when clear Landsat images are scarce. The CRC method was also compared with time-series data fusion methods, including a harmonic fitting model and the SaTellite dAta IntegRation (STAIR) model. The results show that CRC gives similar results when the Landsat-like image availability is high (around 27 images per year), but outperforms other methods when availability is limited (less than 15 images per year). The reconstructed NDVI time series for corn, soybean, winter wheat/soybean and forest at 30-m resolution show clear phenological patterns at the sub-field scale. The resulting 30-m NDVI timeseries data provide useful information for mapping crop phenology and monitoring crop condition in complex agricultural landscapes, especially for complex double-cropping areas. However, the input requirement of an accurate 30-m crop classification map constrains its application to areas and periods where classifications are available.

Land-surface temperature retrieved from thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing has proven to be a valuable constraint in surface energy balance models for estimating evapotranspiration (ET). For optimal utility in agricultural water management applications, frequent thermal imaging (

Mapping the spatial variability of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) across vineyards is useful for optimizing irrigation scheduling and efficiency, leading to conservation of water resources and more sustainable wine grape production. To support efficient irrigation strategies, we investigate the utility of thermal infrared-based ETa maps over a range of vineyards located throughout California, each representing a unique local climate, trellis design, grape variety, row orientation and management practice. ETa maps are derived by combining the Disaggregated Atmosphere Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI/DisALEXI) surface energy balance model and the Spatial Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM) to generate ETa estimates at high spatial (30 m) and temporal (daily) resolution. Model output is evaluated for years 2017 and 2018 over vineyard sites located in Sonoma, Sacramento, and Madera counties in California that are being monitored as part of the Grape Remote sensing Atmospheric Profile and Evapotranspiration eXperiment (GRAPEX). Overall, modeled daily ET estimates compare well with flux tower observations, with average root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean bias error (MBE) of 0.88 mm day−1, 0.70 mm day−1, and 0.17 mm day−1 respectively, over all four individual vineyard locations, aligning with past GRAPEX studies. Despite general agreement, record wildfires in northern California during 2018 likely resulted in positive model bias, while misrepresentation of leaf area index within a double-trellis designed canopy at the southern-most vineyard resulted in negative model bias. Spatial analysis of monthly total ET highlights the advantages of utilizing a satellite-based approach to characterize the variability in water use within and surrounding the targeted vineyards. A reliable spatial ET product at scale has the potential to improve water allocation and conservation efforts by identifying areas of uneven water use due to variations in soil texture and composition and other environmental or anthropogenic factors.

Conventional methods to estimate land surface temperature (LST) from space rely on the thermal infrared (TIR) spectral window and is limited to cloud-free scenes. To also provide LST estimates during periods with clouds, a new method was developed to estimate LST based on passive-microwave (MW) observations. The MW-LST product is informed by six polar-orbiting satellites to create a global record with up to eight observations per day for each 0.25° resolution grid box. For days with sufficient observations, a continuous diurnal temperature cycle (DTC) was fitted. The main characteristics of the DTC were scaled to match those of a geostationary TIR-LST product.This paper tests the cloud tolerance of the MW-LST product. In particular, we demonstrate its stable performance with respect to flux tower observation sites (four in Europe and nine in the United States), over a range of cloudiness conditions up to heavily overcast skies. The results show that TIR-based LST has slightly better performance than MW-LST for clear-sky observations but suffers an increasing negative bias as cloud cover increases. This negative bias is caused by incomplete masking of cloud-covered areas within the TIR scene that affects many applications of TIR-LST. In contrast, for MW-LST we find no direct impact of clouds on its accuracy and bias. MW-LST can therefore be used to improve TIR cloud screening. Moreover, the ability to provide LST estimates for cloud-covered surfaces can help expand current clear-sky-only satellite retrieval products to all-weather applications.

Precipitation, soil moisture, and air temperature are the most commonly used climate variables to monitor drought; however, other climatic factors such as solar radiation, wind speed, and humidity can be important drivers in the depletion of soil moisture and evolution and persistence of drought. This work assesses the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) at multiple time scales for several hydroclimates as the second part of a two-part study. EDDI and individual evaporative demand components were examined as they relate to the dynamic evolution of flash drought over the central United States, characterization of hydrologic drought over the western United States, and comparison to commonly used drought metrics of the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), and the evaporative stress index (ESI). Two main advantages of EDDI over other drought indices are that it is independent of precipitation (similar to ESI) and it can be decomposed to identify the role individual evaporative drivers have on drought onset and persistence. At short time scales, spatial distributions and time series results illustrate that EDDI often indicates drought onset well in advance of the USDM, SPI, and SSI. Results illustrate the benefits of physically based evaporative demand estimates and demonstrate EDDI’s utility and effectiveness in an easy-to-implement agricultural early warning and long-term hydrologic drought–monitoring tool with potential applications in seasonal forecasting and fire-weather monitoring.

Many operational drought indices focus primarily on precipitation and temperature when depicting hydroclimatic anomalies, and this perspective can be augmented by analyses and products that reflect the evaporative dynamics of drought. The linkage between atmospheric evaporative demand E0 and actual evapotranspiration (ET) is leveraged in a new drought index based solely on E0—the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI). EDDI measures the signal of drought through the response of E0 to surface drying anomalies that result from two distinct land surface–atmosphere interactions: 1) a complementary relationship between E0 and ET that develops under moisture limitations at the land surface, leading to ET declining and increasing E0, as in sustained droughts, and 2) parallel ET and E0 increases arising from increased energy availability that lead to surface moisture limitations, as in flash droughts. To calculate EDDI from E0, a long-term, daily reanalysis of reference ET estimated from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) standardized reference ET equation using radiation and meteorological variables from the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS-2) is used. EDDI is obtained by deriving empirical probabilities of aggregated E0 depths relative to their climatologic means across a user-specific time period and normalizing these probabilities. Positive EDDI values then indicate drier-than-normal conditions and the potential for drought. EDDI is a physically based, multiscalar drought index that that can serve as an indicator of both flash and sustained droughts, in some hydroclimates offering early warning relative to current operational drought indices. The performance of EDDI is assessed against other commonly used drought metrics across CONUS in Part II.

Thermal and multispectral remote sensing data from low-altitude aircraft can provide high spatial resolution necessary for sub-field (≤ 10 m) and plant canopy (≤ 1 m) scale evapotranspiration (ET) monitoring. In this study, high-resolution (sub-meter-scale) thermal infrared and multispectral shortwave data from aircraft are used to map ET over vineyards in central California with the two-source energy balance (TSEB) model and with a simple model having operational immediate capabilities called DATTUTDUT (Deriving Atmosphere Turbulent Transport Useful To Dummies Using Temperature). The latter uses contextual information within the image to scale between radiometric land surface temperature (TR) values representing hydrologic limits of potential ET and a non-evaporative surface. Imagery from 5 days throughout the growing season is used for mapping ET at the sub-field scale. The performance of the two models is evaluated using tower-based measurements of sensible (H) and latent heat (LE) flux or ET. The comparison indicates that TSEB was able to derive reasonable ET estimates under varying conditions, likely due to the physically based treatment of the energy and the surface temperature partitioning between the soil/cover crop inter-row and vine canopy elements. On the other hand, DATTUTDUT performance was somewhat degraded presumably because the simple scaling scheme does not consider differences in the two sources (vine and inter-row) of heat and temperature contributions or the effect of surface roughness on the efficiency of heat exchange. Maps of the evaporative fraction (EF = LE/(H + LE)) from the two models had similar spatial patterns but different magnitudes in some areas within the fields on certain days. Large EF discrepancies between the models were found on 2 of the 5 days (DOY 162 and 219) when there were significant differences with the tower-based ET measurements, particularly using the DATTUTDUT model. These differences in EF between the models translate to significant variations in daily water use estimates for these 2 days for the vineyards. Model sensitivity analysis demonstrated the high degree of sensitivity of the TSEB model to the accuracy of the TR data, while the DATTUTDUT model was insensitive to systematic errors in TR as is the case with contextual-based models. However, it is shown that the study domain and spatial resolution will significantly influence the ET estimation from the DATTUTDUT model. Future work is planned for developing a hybrid approach that leverages the strengths of both modeling schemes and is simple enough to be used operationally with high-resolution imagery.

This study examines the evolution of several model-based and satellite-derived drought metrics sensitive to soil moisture and vegetation conditions during the extreme flash drought event that impacted major agricultural areas across the central U.S. during 2012. Standardized anomalies from the remote sensing based Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) and Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) and soil moisture anomalies from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) are compared to the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), surface meteorological conditions, and crop and soil moisture data compiled by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Overall, the results show that rapid decreases in the ESI and NLDAS anomalies often preceded drought intensification in the USDM by up to 6 wk depending on the region. Decreases in the ESI tended to occur up to several weeks before deteriorations were observed in the crop condition datasets. The NLDAS soil moisture anomalies were similar to those depicted in the NASS soil moisture datasets; however, some differences were noted in how each model responded to the changing drought conditions. The VegDRI anomalies tracked the evolution of the USDM drought depiction in regions with slow drought development, but lagged the USDM and other drought indicators when conditions were changing rapidly. Comparison to the crop condition datasets revealed that soybean conditions were most similar to ESI anomalies computed over short time periods (2–4 wk), whereas corn conditions were more closely related to longer-range (8–12 wk) ESI anomalies. Crop yield departures were consistent with the drought severity depicted by the ESI and to a lesser extent by the NLDAS and VegDRI datasets.

Accurate partitioning of the evaporation (E) and transpiration (T) components of evapotranspiration (ET) in remote sensing models is important for evaluating strategies aimed at increasing crop water productivity. A two-source energy balance (TSEB) model designed for row crops solves the energy balance of the soil-canopy-atmosphere continuum using surface brightness temperature. By solving the energy balance of the soil and plant canopy separately, the TSEB model can calculate E and T, which cannot be done with single-source models. However, few studies have tested the TSEB model where E or T measurements were available, which until recently has impeded its advance. This article reviews recent physically based advances of the TSEB model. The advances were tested using measurements of E, T, and ET by microlysimeters, sap flow gauges, and weighing lysimeters, respectively, at Bushland, Texas, for irrigated cotton having a wide range of canopy cover. Root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias error (MBE) were 0.54 and -0.19 mm d-1, respectively, between measured and calculated E. RMSE and MBE were 0.87 and 0.31 mm d-1, respectively, between measured and calculated T. This was deemed an improvement over previous TSEB model versions, which overestimated E and underestimate T, resulting in RMSE and MBE of up to 3.8 and -3.5 mm d-1, respectively. Ongoing research includes testing the TSEB model using different remote sensing platforms, from ground-based to satellite scales.

Land surface models (LSMs) are often applied to predict the one-way coupling strength between surface soil moisture (SM) and latent heat (LH) flux. However, the ability of LSMs to accurately represent such coupling has not been adequately established. Likewise, the estimation of SM/LH coupling strength using ground-based observational data is potentially compromised by the impact of independent SM and LH measurements errors. Here we apply a new statistical technique to acquire estimates of one-way SM/LH coupling strength which are nonbiased in the presence of random error using a triple collocation approach based on leveraging the simultaneous availability of independent SM and LH estimates acquired from (1) LSMs, (2) satellite remote sensing, and (3) ground-based observations. Results suggest that LSMs do not generally overestimate the strength of one-way surface SM/LH coupling.

Leaf area index (LAI) is an essential indicator of crop development and growth. For many agricultural applications, satellite-based LAI estimates at the farm-level often require near-daily imagery at medium to high spatial resolution. The combination of data from different ongoing satellite missions, Sentinel 2 (ESA) and Landsat 8 (NASA), provides this opportunity. In this study, we evaluated the leaf area index generated from three methods, namely, existing vegetation index (VI) relationships applied to Harmonized Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 (HLS) surface reflectance produced by NASA, the SNAP biophysical model, and the THEIA L2A surface reflectance products from Sentinel-2. The intercomparison was conducted over the agricultural scheme in Bekaa (Lebanon) using a large set of in-field LAIs and other biophysical measurements collected in a wide variety of canopy structures during the 2018 and 2019 growing seasons. The major studied crops include herbs (e.g., cannabis: Cannabis sativa, mint: Mentha, and others), potato (Solanum tuberosum), and vegetables (e.g., bean: Phaseolus vulgaris, cabbage: Brassica oleracea, carrot: Daucus carota subsp. sativus, and others). Additionally, crop-specific height and above-ground biomass relationships with LAIs were investigated. Results show that of the empirical VI relationships tested, the EVI2-based HLS models statistically performed the best, specifically, the LAI models originally developed for wheat (RMSE:1.27), maize (RMSE:1.34), and row crops (RMSE:1.38). LAI derived through European Space Agency’s (ESA) Sentinel Application Platform (SNAP) biophysical processor underestimated LAI and provided less accurate estimates (RMSE of 1.72). Additionally, the S2 SeLI LAI algorithm (from SNAP biophysical processor) produced an acceptable accuracy level compared to HLS-EVI2 models (RMSE of 1.38) but with significant underestimation at high LAI values. Our findings show that the LAI-VI relationship, in general, is crop-specific with both linear and non-linear regression forms. Among the examined indices, EVI2 outperformed other vegetation indices when all crops were combined, and therefore it can be identified as an index that is best suited for a unified algorithm for crops in semi-arid irrigated regions with heterogeneous landscapes. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the observed height-LAI relationship is crop-specific and essentially linear with an R2 value of 0.82 for potato, 0.79 for wheat, and 0.50 for both cannabis and tobacco. The ability of the linear regression to estimate the fresh and dry above-ground biomass of potato from both observed height and LAI was reasonable, yielding R2: ~0.60.

The Central Valley of California relies on irrigation for crop production, but water resources, particularly groundwater, have reached a critical state due to extended drought periods and overuse by irrigated agriculture. The purpose of the Grape Remote sensing Atmospheric Profile and Evapotranspiration eXperiment (GRAPEX) project is to improve efficiency in vineyard irrigation through field measurements and modeling efforts using remote sensing. In this study, we analyze multi-year timeseries of ground-based soil moisture and evapotranspiration (ET) measurements collected during GRAPEX to identify patterns that may inform future irrigation recommendations based on remotely sensed ET. The study focuses on field data collected in two adjacent Pinot noir vineyards near Lodi, CA from 2013 to 2017. The data used for this analysis are reference evapotranspiration (ETref), actual evapotranspiration (ETa), mean daytime soil water content (SWC) measured to a depth of 90 cm, precipitation, and irrigation. The relationship between SWC and the ratio of ETa/ETref (used as a soil moisture proxy indicator) changes throughout the spring and summer months due to advancing phenological stages and management practices. In early spring, when the interrow cover crop is the primary source of ET, ETa is strongly correlated with SWC. As the vine canopy grows in, the strong correlation breaks down as the vines begin to access to water beyond the depth of the soil moisture sensors. As the soil profile dries out during the summer, the correlation between ETa and SWC once again emerges as the vines become strongly dependent on irrigation. The dynamic interaction between the upper and lower root zone profile and evaporative demand means that the key to understanding vineyard water status using relatively shallow SWC observations is to use them in conjunction with ETa data, so that when both SWC and ETa timeseries are highly correlated vine water status is well defined. This suggests, delaying the initiation of irrigation during the period of rapid vine growth until a clear relationship between SWC and ETa emerges would both reduce the total amount of water used and give the grower more control over vine growth and grape quality affected by water status.

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a measure of plant water use that is utilized regionally for drought detection and monitoring, and locally for agricultural water resource management. Understanding the uncertainty associated with this measurement is vital for science predictions and analysis and for water resource management decision making. In this manuscript, the uncertainty in disaggregated Atmosphere-Land Exchange (disALEXI) is quantified; disALEXI is an ET algorithm that utilizes land surface temperature (LST) derived from the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS), as well ancillary inputs for landcover, elevation, vegetation parameters, and meteorological inputs. Since each of these inputs has an associated, and potentially unknown, uncertainty, in this study a Monte Carlo simulation based on a spatial statistical model is used to determine the algorithm's sensitivity to each of its inputs, and to quantify the probability distribution of algorithm outputs. Analysis shows that algorithm is most sensitive to LST (the input derived from ECOSTRESS). Significantly, the output uncertainty distribution is non-Gaussian, due to the non-linear nature of the algorithm. This means that ET uncertainty cannot be prescribed by accuracy and precision alone. Here, uncertainty was represented using five quantiles of the output distribution. The distribution was consistent across five different datasets (mean offset is 0.01 mm/day, and 95% of the data is contained within 0.3 mm/day). An additional two datasets with low ET, showed higher uncertainty (95% of the data is within 1 mm/day), and a positive bias (i.e., ET was overestimated by an average of 0.12 mm/day when ET was low).

Crop emergence date is a critical input to models of crop development and biomass accumulation. The ability to robustly detect and map emergence date using remote sensing would greatly benefit operational yield estimation and crop monitoring efforts; however, this has proven to be challenging. Previous remote-sensing phenology algorithms showed that crop stages can typically be detected starting only around the V3-V4 (3 to 4 established leaves) vegetative stage. Furthermore, traditional approaches have a strong assumption regarding the temporal evolution of plant growth and normally require a complete growth period of observations to define seasonal changes. Most approaches were not designed for within-season operational mapping, particularly in the early growing season. In the current paper, we describe a new within-season emergence (WISE) approach to mapping crop green-up date using satellite observations available during early growth stages. The approach was first optimized using high spatiotemporal resolution (10 m, 2-day revisit) imagery from the Vegetation and Environment monitoring New MicroSatellite (VENμS) research mission, and assessed using ground observations of early crop growth stages (emergence VE and one leaf V1 stages for corn, and emergence VE and unifoliolate VC stages for soybeans) collected over the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center (BARC) experimental fields in Beltsville, MD during the 2019 growing season. Results show that early crop growth stages can be reliably detected at sub-field scale about two weeks after crop emergence. The remote-sensing green-up dates were about 4–5 days after crop emergence on average. Coefficients of determination (R2) between green-up dates and the mid-point dates of the early growth stages were above 0.90. The mean absolute differences, standard deviations, and root mean square errors comparing to the early growth stage mid-point dates were within six days. The maximum differences were within ±10 days across all fields. The WISE approach was assessed using operational Sentinel-2 data (10 m, 5-day revisit) over BARC. The detected green-up dates from Sentinel-2 were consistent with those from VENμS. Some fields were not detected due to the lack of observations around the emergence dates. For independent evaluation, the WISE approach was applied over an agricultural watershed on the Maryland Eastern Shore using both VENμS and the Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) data (30 m, 3–4-day revisit). The detected green-up dates were compared with emergence dates in crop progress reports from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) at the state-level. The WISE-detected green-up dates at the regional scale are within VE stage ranges but slightly earlier than NASS crop progress reports at the state-level. The WISE approach uses remote-sensing observations during the early crop growth stages and has potential for operational application within the season using Sentinel-2 and HLS data.

Crop yield estimates over large areas are conventionally made using weather observations, but a comprehensive understanding of the effects of various environmental indicators, observation frequency, and the choice of prediction algorithm remains elusive. Here we present a thorough assessment of county-level maize yield prediction in U.S. Midwest using six statistical/machine learning algorithms (Lasso, Support Vector Regressor, Random Forest, XGBoost, Long-short term memory (LSTM), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)) and an extensive set of environmental variables derived from satellite observations, weather data, land surface model results, soil maps, and crop progress reports. Results show that seasonal crop yield forecasting benefits from both more advanced algorithms and a large composite of information associated with crop canopy, environmental stress, phenology, and soil properties (i.e. hundreds of features). The XGBoost algorithm outperforms other algorithms both in accuracy and stability, while deep neural networks such as LSTM and CNN are not advantageous. The compositing interval (8-day, 16-day or monthly) of time series variable does not have significant effects on the prediction. Combining the best algorithm and inputs improves the prediction accuracy by 5% when compared to a baseline statistical model (Lasso) using only basic climatic and satellite observations. Reasonable county-level yield foresting is achievable from early June, almost four months prior to harvest. At the national level, early-season (June and July) prediction from the best model outperforms that of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). This study provides insights into practical crop yield forecasting and the understanding of yield response to climatic and environmental conditions.

Geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs) provide a portfolio of ecosystem services in low-gradient, Coastal Plain landscapes. Understanding how GIWs influence downstream waters is becoming increasingly important for conservation and management of these unique and important wetland ecosystems. Climatic conditions are known to be key drivers of water budgets at both individual GIW and landscape scales; however differences in hydrologic response across these scales may provide insights into how GIWs influence downstream waters. In this study, we use a combination of GIW water level, gaged streamflow, and climatic data to explore linkages between seasonal climatic drivers, GIW hydrology, and downstream discharges within the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We first examine water balance components at the larger watershed scale, where climatic drivers result in an energy-limited wet season from December to May and a water-limited dry season from June to November. We compare long-term water levels of three GIWs with downstream discharges. GIW water level and downstream discharges are correlated at seasonal (R2: 0.52–0.60) and daily (R2: 0.52–0.76) time steps. However, during dry seasons, GIW water level receded at a faster rate than downstream discharges, highlighting the influence of evapotranspiration on surface and shallow subsurface water storage. Conversely during wet seasons, GIW water level receded slower than downstream discharges, highlighting a potential period for surface water connectivity between GIWs and downstream discharges. Cumulatively, these findings quantify the impact of seasonal climatic drivers on GIW hydrology and connectivity to downstream waters.

Efficient water use assessment and irrigation management is critical for the sustainability of irrigated agriculture, especially under changing climate conditions. Due to the impracticality of maintaining ground instrumentation over wide geographic areas, remote sensing and numerical model-based fine-scale mapping of soil water conditions have been applied for water resource applications at a range of spatial scales. Here, we present a prototype framework for integrating high-resolution thermal infrared (TIR) and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) remote sensing data into a soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) model with the aim of providing improved estimates of surface- and root-zone soil moisture that can support optimized irrigation management strategies. Specifically, remotely-sensed estimates of water stress (from TIR) and surface soil moisture retrievals (from SAR) are assimilated into a 30-m resolution SVAT model over a vineyard site in the Central Valley of California, U.S. The efficacy of our data assimilation algorithm is investigated via both the synthetic and real data experiments. Results demonstrate that a particle filtering approach is superior to an ensemble Kalman filter for handling the nonlinear relationship between model states and observations. In addition, biophysical conditions such as leaf area index are shown to impact the relationship between observations and states and must therefore be represented accurately in the assimilation model. Overall, both surface and root-zone soil moisture predicted via the SVAT model are enhanced through the assimilation of thermal and radar-based retrievals, suggesting the potential for improving irrigation management at the agricultural sub-field scale using a data assimilation strategy.

Terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component of the surface hydrological cycle and controls land-atmosphere feedbacks by modulating the surface energy budget. Accurate ET quantification at global or regional scales is crucial for understanding variations in carbon and water cycling in a changing environment. Although various grid-based ET data models have been developed using multiple approaches, these vary in concept and physical scheme, leading to differences in performance. We examine uncertainties associated with the limitations of the physics used to assist in model selection and improvement. We evaluate multiple ET data models, including estimates derived from a variety of land surface models (LSMs) based on the operational North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) phase 2 (NLDAS-2) and the experimental NASA LIS-based NLDAS Testbed (NLDAS-Testbed) drivers, and satellite retrievals, compared to water budget-derived ET and tower observations. Overall, all models are able to capture the spatial variability of mean annual water balance-based ET (ETwb) and monthly seasonal cycles of tower ET measurements, although there is a large range of estimates. NOAH28, FLUXNET, SSEBop, LandFlux, and GLEAM perform best, as demonstrated by their higher correlation and smaller bias and RMSE values. Simple relative uncertainty analysis shows that the NLDAS-Testbed ensemble mean has a slightly lower uncertainty than that of the NLDAS-2 ensemble. Our study indicates that NLDAS-Testbed/VIC412 (NLDAS version/LSM version) is improving and NLDAS-Testbed /CLSM is deteriorating relative to NLDAS-2/VIC403 and NLDAS-2/Mosaic. NLDAS-Testbed /NOAH36 and NLDAS-Testbed /NOAHMP36 are comparable to NLDAS-2/NOAH28, although biases between models and ETwb exhibit opposite trends. These findings will help further improvement of these models and support future NLDAS development.

Drought in East Africa is a recurring phenomenon with significant humanitarian impacts. Given the steep climatic gradients, topographic contrasts, general data scarcity, and, in places, political instability that characterize the region, there is a need for spatially distributed, remotely derived monitoring systems to inform national and international drought response. At the same time, the very diversity and data scarcity that necessitate remote monitoring also make it difficult to evaluate the reliability of these systems. Here we apply a suite of remote monitoring techniques to characterize the temporal and spatial evolution of the 2010–2011 Horn of Africa drought. Diverse satellite observations allow for evaluation of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological aspects of drought, each of which is of interest to different stakeholders. Focusing on soil moisture, we apply triple collocation analysis (TCA) to three independent methods for estimating soil moisture anomalies to characterize relative error between products and to provide a basis for objective data merging. The three soil moisture methods evaluated include microwave remote sensing using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) sensor, thermal remote sensing using the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) surface energy balance algorithm, and physically-based land surface modeling using the Noah land surface model. It was found that the three soil moisture monitoring methods yield similar drought anomaly estimates in areas characterized by extremely low or by moderate vegetation cover, particularly during the below-average 2011 long rainy season. Systematic discrepancies were found, however, in regions of moderately low vegetation cover and high vegetation cover, especially during the failed 2010 short rains. The merged, TCA-weighted soil moisture composite product takes advantage of the relative strengths of each method, as judged by the consistency of anomaly estimates across independent methods. This approach holds potential as a remote soil moisture-based drought monitoring system that is robust across the diverse climatic and ecological zones of East Africa.

The Arctic has become generally a warmer place over the past decades leading to earlier snow melt, permafrost degradation and changing plant communities. Increases in precipitation and local evaporation in the Arctic, known as the acceleration components of the hydrologic cycle, coupled with land cover changes, have resulted in significant changes in the regional surface energy budget. Quantifying spatiotemporal trends in surface energy flux partitioning is key to forecasting ecological responses to changing climate conditions in the Arctic. An extensive local evaluation of the Two-Source Energy Balance model (TSEB) – a remote-sensing-based model using thermal infrared retrievals of land surface temperature – was performed using tower measurements collected over different tundra types in Alaska in all sky conditions over the full growing season from 2008 to 2012. Based on comparisons with flux tower observations, refinements in the original TSEB net radiation, soil heat flux and canopy transpiration parameterizations were identified for Arctic tundra. In particular, a revised method for estimating soil heat flux based on relationships with soil temperature was developed, resulting in significantly improved performance. These refinements result in mean turbulent flux errors generally less than 50 W m−2 at half-hourly time steps, similar to errors typically reported in surface energy balance modeling studies conducted in more temperate climatic regimes. The MODIS leaf area index (LAI) remote sensing product proved to be useful for estimating energy fluxes in Arctic tundra in the absence of field data on the local biomass amount. Model refinements found in this work at the local scale build toward a regional implementation of the TSEB model over Arctic tundra ecosystems, using thermal satellite remote sensing to assess response of surface fluxes to changing vegetation and climate conditions.

The Dual Temperature Difference (DTD) model, introduced by Norman et al. (2000), uses a two source energy balance modelling scheme driven by remotely sensed observations of diurnal changes in land surface temperature (LST) to estimate surface energy fluxes. By using a time differential temperature measurement as input, the approach reduces model sensitivity to errors in absolute temperature retrieval. The original formulation of the DTD required an early morning LST observation (approximately 1 h after sunrise) when surface fluxes are minimal, limiting application to data provided by geostationary satellites at sub-hourly temporal resolution. The DTD model has been applied primarily during the active growth phase of agricultural crops and rangeland vegetation grasses, and has not been rigorously evaluated during senescence or in forested ecosystems. In this paper we present modifications to the DTD model that enable applications using thermal observation from polar orbiting satellites, such as Terra and Aqua, with day and night overpass times over the area of interest. This allows the application of the DTD model in high latitude regions where large viewing angles preclude the use of geostationary satellites, and also exploits the higher spatial resolution provided by polar orbiting satellites. A method for estimating nocturnal surface fluxes and a scheme for estimating the fraction of green vegetation are developed and evaluated. Modification for green vegetation fraction leads to significantly improved estimation of the heat fluxes from the vegetation canopy during senescence and in forests. Land-cover based modifications to the Priestley–Taylor scheme, used to estimate transpiration fluxes, are explored based on prior findings for conifer forests. When the modified DTD model is run with LST measurements acquired with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Terra and Aqua satellites, generally satisfactory agreement with field measurements is obtained for a number of ecosystems in Denmark and the United States. Finally, regional maps of energy fluxes are produced for the Danish Hydrological ObsErvatory (HOBE) in western Denmark, indicating realistic patterns based on land use.

Accurate spatially distributed estimates of actual evapotranspiration (ET) derived from remotely sensed data are critical to a broad range of practical and operational applications. However, due to lengthy return intervals and cloud cover, data acquisition is not continuous over time, particularly for satellite sensors operating at medium ( ∼ 100 m) or finer resolutions. To fill the data gaps between clear-sky data acquisitions, interpolation methods that take advantage of the relationship between ET and other environmental properties that can be continuously monitored are often used. This study sought to evaluate the accuracy of this approach, which is commonly referred to as temporal upscaling, as a function of satellite revisit interval. Using data collected at 20 Ameriflux sites distributed throughout the contiguous United States and representing four distinct land cover types (cropland, grassland, forest, and open-canopy) as a proxy for perfect retrievals on satellite overpass dates, this study assesses daily ET estimates derived using five different reference quantities (incident solar radiation, net radiation, available energy, reference ET, and equilibrium latent heat flux) and three different interpolation methods (linear, cubic spline, and Hermite spline). Not only did the analyses find that the temporal autocorrelation, i.e., persistence, of all of the reference quantities was short, it also found that those land cover types with the greatest ET exhibited the least persistence. This carries over to the error associated with both the various scaled quantities and flux estimates. In terms of both the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), the errors increased rapidly with increasing return interval following a logarithmic relationship. Again, those land cover types with the greatest ET showed the largest errors. Moreover, using a threshold of 20 % relative error, this study indicates that a return interval of no more than 5 days is necessary for accurate daily ET estimates. It also found that the spline interpolation methods performed erratically for long return intervals and should be avoided.

For monitoring water use in vineyards, it becomes important to evaluate the evapotranspiration (ET) contributions from the two distinct management zones: the vines and the interrow. Often the interrow is not completely bare soil but contains a cover crop that is senescent during the main growing season (nominally May–August), which in Central California is also the dry season. Drip irrigation systems running during the growing season supply water to the vine plant and re-wet some of the surrounding bare soil. However, most of the interrow cover crop is dry stubble by the end of May. This paper analyzes the utility of the thermal-based two-source energy balance (TSEB) model for estimating daytime ET using tower-based land surface temperature (LST) estimates over two Pinot Noir (Vitis vinifera) vineyards at different levels of maturity in the Central Valley of California near Lodi, CA. The data were collected as part of the Grape Remote sensing Atmospheric Profile and Evapotranspiration eXperiment (GRAPEX). Local eddy covariance (EC) flux tower measurements are used to evaluate the performance of the TSEB model output of the fluxes and the capability of partitioning the vine and cover crop transpiration (T) from the total ET or T/ET ratio. The results for the 2014–2016 growing seasons indicate that TSEB output of the energy balance components and ET, particularly, over the daytime period yield relative differences with flux tower measurements of less than 15%. However, the TSEB model in comparison with the correlation-based flux partitioning method overestimates T/ET during the winter and spring through bud break, but then underestimates during the growing season. A major factor that appears to affect this temporal behavior in T/ET is the daily LAI used as input to TSEB derived from a remote sensing product. An additional source of uncertainty is the use of local tower-based LST measurements, which are not representative of the flux tower measurement source area footprint. info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion

The utility of remote sensing data in crop yield modeling has typically been evaluated at the regional or state level using coarse resolution (>250 m) data. The use of medium resolution data (10–100 m) for yield estimation at field scales has been limited due to the low temporal sampling frequency characteristics of these sensors. Temporal sampling at a medium resolution can be significantly improved, however, when multiple remote sensing data sources are used in combination. Furthermore, data fusion approaches have been developed to blend data from different spatial and temporal resolutions. This paper investigates the impacts of improved temporal sampling afforded by multi-source datasets on our ability to explain spatial and temporal variability in crop yields in central Iowa (part of the U.S. Corn Belt). Several metrics derived from vegetation index (VI) time-series were evaluated using Landsat-MODIS fused data from 2001 to 2015 and Landsat-Sentinel2-MODIS fused data from 2016 and 2017. The fused data explained the yield variability better, with a higher coefficient of determination (R2) and a smaller relative mean absolute error than using a single data source alone. In this study area, the best period for the yield prediction for corn and soybean was during the middle of the growing season from day 192 to 236 (early July to late August, 1–3 months before harvest). These findings emphasize the importance of high temporal and spatial resolution remote sensing data in agricultural applications.

The ability to accurately monitor and anticipate changes in consumptive water use associated with changing land use and land management is critical to developing sustainable water management strategies in water-limited climatic regions. In this paper, we present an application of a remote sensing data fusion technique for developing high spatiotemporal resolution maps of evapotranspiration (ET) at scales that can be associated with changes in land use. The fusion approach combines ET map timeseries developed using an multi-scale energy balance algorithm applied to thermal data from Earth observation platforms with high spatial but low temporal resolution (e.g., Landsat) and with moderate resolution but frequent temporal coverage (e.g., MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)). The approach is applied over the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta region in California—an area critical to both agricultural production and drinking water supply within the state that has recently experienced stresses on water resources due to a multi-year (2012–2017) extreme drought. ET “datacubes” with 30-m resolution and daily timesteps were constructed for the 2015–2016 water years and related to detailed maps of land use developed at the same spatial scale. The ET retrievals are evaluated at flux sites over multiple land covers to establish a metric of accuracy in the annual water use estimates, yielding root-mean-square errors of 1.0, 0.8, and 0.3 mm day−1 at daily, monthly, and yearly timesteps, respectively, for all sites combined. Annual ET averaged over the Delta changed only 3 mm year−1 between water years, from 822 to 819 mm year−1, translating to an area-integrated total change in consumptive water use of seven thousand acre-feet (TAF). Changes were largest in areas with recorded land-use change between water years—most significantly, fallowing of crop land presumably in response to reductions in water availability and allocations due to the drought. Moreover, the time evolution in water use associated with wetland restoration—an effort aimed at reducing subsidence and carbon emissions within the inner Delta—is assessed using a sample wetland chronosequence. Region-specific matrices of consumptive water use associated with land use changes may be an effective tool for policymakers and farmers to understand how land use conversion could impact consumptive use and demand.

Caregivers of community-dwelling persons with dementia (PWD) often struggle with challenging and stressful circumstances associated with agitation episodes of the PWD. Such episodes pose a major health risk for both PWD and caregivers. Timely detection can prevent escalation of such events and their hazardous consequences. Wearable sensors are widely used for continuous sensing of physiological parameters, however, reliable inference of behavioral events from such signals is still an open research. Behavior inference in residential settings is challenging due to the prevalence of unpredictable and wide-variety activity patterns. This paper presents a novel methodology to infer the onset of agitation episodes from PWD inertial motion data. As part of a transdisciplinary study, inertial sensors on smart watches are used to unobtrusively capture motion patterns during month-long deployments from eight clinically diagnosed PWD residing in their homes. These patterns are analyzed to build a sequential behavior model using long short-term memory (LSTM) based recurrent neural network. The performance of this model in inferring the onset of agitation episodes is evaluated using data from real deployments. This paper shows the potential of such models in sensing-based behavior inference for real-world applications.

Particularly in light of California’s recent multiyear drought, there is a critical need for accurate and timely evapotranspiration (ET) and crop stress information to ensure long-term sustainability of high-value crops. Providing this information requires the development of tools applicable across the continuum from subfield scales to improve water management within individual fields up to watershed and regional scales to assess water resources at county and state levels. High-value perennial crops (vineyards and orchards) are major water users, and growers will need better tools to improve water-use efficiency to remain economically viable and sustainable during periods of prolonged drought. To develop these tools, government, university, and industry partners are evaluating a multiscale remote sensing–based modeling system for application over vineyards. During the 2013–17 growing seasons, the Grape Remote Sensing Atmospheric Profile and Evapotranspiration eXperiment (GRAPEX) project has collected micrometeorological and biophysical data within adjacent pinot noir vineyards in the Central Valley of California. Additionally, each year ground, airborne, and satellite remote sensing data were collected during intensive observation periods (IOPs) representing different vine phenological stages. An overview of the measurements and some initial results regarding the impact of vine canopy architecture on modeling ET and plant stress are presented here. Refinements to the ET modeling system based on GRAPEX are being implemented initially at the field scale for validation and then will be integrated into the regional modeling toolkit for large area assessment.

Addressing timely and relevant questions across a multitude of spatiotemporal scales, state-of-the-art interdisciplinary drought research will likely increase in importance under projected climate change. Given the complexity of the various direct and indirect causes and consequences of a drier world, scientific tasks need to be coordinated efficiently. Drought-related research endeavors ranging from individual projects to global initiatives therefore require prioritization. Here, we present 60 priority questions for optimizing future drought research. This topical catalogue reflects the experience of 65 scholars from 21 countries and almost 20 fields of research in both natural sciences and the humanities. The set of drought-related questions primarily covers the drought monitoring, impacts, forecasting, climatology, adaptation, as well as planning and policy. The questions highlight the increasingly important role of remote sensing techniques in drought monitoring, importance of drought forecasting and understanding the relationships between drought parameters and drought impacts but also challenges of drought adaptation and preparedness policies.

Prior to the acquisition of data from production drilling and grade control sampling, the spatial density of data is usually insufficient to properly address issues related to short-scale variability. Grade interpolation, whether conducted through ordinary kriging or other linear or non-linear regression techniques, usually suffers from significant over-smoothing or conditional bias. Four examples presented in this paper show that conditional simulations provide a viable and powerful alternative in assessing the sensitivity of key variables that are critical to the decisions made prior to moving forward with significant capital expenditures. These variables include the selection of the most appropriate mining method and mining equipment, the optimum cut-off strategy and the short-term variability constraints on process plant feed. The results also demonstrate that conditional simulations can be used to assess the risk associated with many of the technical aspects of the project and its financial performance.

Introduction Caregiver burden associated with dementia-related agitation is one of the most common reasons community-dwelling persons with dementia (PWD) transition to a care facility. Agitation in dementia can be defined as “inappropriate verbal, vocal, or motor activity that is not explained by needs or confusion per se” and is “consistent with emotional distress”. Agitation can be physically non-aggressive, aggressive, or verbally agitated behavior. Up to 90% of PWDs experience agitation and it is one of the principal factors for institutionalization. Agitation can be unpredictable, remain undetected in the early stages, and quickly escalate. Caregivers of PWD report high levels of emotional, physical, and financial stress and are susceptible to disease and health complications. BESI is an interactive, cybersociophysical system comprising of in-home and body-worn sensors, a caregiver tablet interface, online modeling, and caregiver notifications built to help detect the environmental triggers and early signs of agitation in PWD. Methods This is a mixed method, prospective study using descriptive, qualitative, and quantitative measures of caregiver-PWD dyads. Baseline psychosocial and behavioral status for both members of the dyad were assessed using validated assessment tools. Phase 1 (System Verification) - controlled settings (laboratory and homes of 2 healthy volunteers) and study settings (homes of 2 study dyads) & usability testing Phase 2 (System Effectiveness) - homes of 10 study dyads for 30 days each Home Visits First: provide detailed description of study, obtain informed consent, and document demographic and medical information. Second: complete assessment battery and BESI system installation. Results Phase 1 The tablet application usability was assessed and revised showing it to be a viable tool. We observed and documented caregiver emotional-state evolution over the day in relation to agitation episodes, the correlation between agitation events and accelerometer Teager energy magnitudes, and the variability in environmental parameters across rooms temporally and during agitation episodes. Audio levels did not yield enough information for more complex audio processing such as verbal agitation detection. We concluded that additional model training and evaluation was needed for physical agitation detection and PWD room localization. Phase 2 An upgraded audio data collection system was implemented to provide more complex audio processing. Comparing this with the verbal agitation episode reports on the tablet application, this method produced a 76.7% accuracy in detecting verbal agitation events. Multiple models were explored for physical agitation detection, with long short-term memory (LSTM) cell based recurrent neural network providing the highest performance. Decision rules was used to structure covariance factor retention for each dyad to feed into artificial neural network models. Doorway-based sensors and Markov models with room transition probabilities provided ∼90% room-level tracking accuracy of the PWD. Conclusions Phases 1 & 2 results facilitated targeted changes in BESI, thus improving its overall usability for the final phase of the study. This research was funded by This study is funded by the National Science Foundation Smart and Connected Health Program. [Grant Number 1418622]

Crop condition and natural vegetation monitoring require high resolution remote sensing imagery in both time and space - a requirement that cannot currently be satisfied by any single Earth observing sensor in isolation. The suite of available remote sensing instruments varies widely in terms of sensor characteristics, spatial resolution and acquisition frequency. For example, the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provides daily global observations at 250m to 1km spatial resolution. While imagery from coarse resolution sensors such as MODIS are typically superior to finer resolution data in terms of their revisit frequency, they lack spatial detail to capture surface features for many applications. The Landsat satellite series provides medium spatial resolution (30m) imagery which is well suited to capturing surface details, but a long revisit cycle (16-day) has limited its use in describing daily surface changes. Data fusion approaches provide an alternative way to utilize observations from multiple sensors so that the fused results can provide higher value than can an individual sensor alone. In this paper, we review the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM) and two extended data fusion models (STAARCH and ESTARFM) that have been used to fuse MODIS and Landsat data. The fused MODISLandsat results inherit the spatial details of Landsat (30 m) and the temporal revisit frequency of MODIS (daily). The theoretical basis of the fusion approach is described and recent applications are presented. While these approaches can produce imagery with high spatiotemporal resolution, they still rely on the availability of actual satellite images and the quality of ingested remote sensing products. As a result, data fusion is useful for bridging gaps between medium resolution image acquisitions, but cannot replace actual satellite missions.

Summary Shortwave vegetation index (VI) and leaf area index (LAI) remote sensing products yield inconsistent depictions of biophysical response to drought and pluvial events that have occurred in Brazil over the past decade. Conflicting reports of severity of drought impacts on vegetation health and functioning have been attributed to cloud and aerosol contamination of shortwave reflectance composites, particularly over the rainforested regions of the Amazon basin which are subject to prolonged periods of cloud cover and episodes of intense biomass burning. This study compares timeseries of satellite-derived maps of LAI from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission (TRMM) with a diagnostic Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) retrieved using thermal infrared remote sensing over South America for the period 2003–2013. This period includes several severe droughts and floods that occurred both over the Amazon and over unforested savanna and agricultural areas in Brazil. Cross-correlations between absolute values and standardized anomalies in monthly LAI and precipitation composites as well as the actual-to-reference evapotranspiration (ET) ratio used in the ESI were computed for representative forested and agricultural regions. The correlation analyses reveal strong apparent anticorrelation between MODIS LAI and TRMM precipitation anomalies over the Amazon, but better coupling over regions vegetated with shorter grass and crop canopies. The ESI was more consistently correlated with precipitation patterns over both landcover types. Temporal comparisons between ESI and TRMM anomalies suggest longer moisture buffering timescales in the deeper rooted rainforest systems. Diagnostic thermal-based retrievals of ET and ET anomalies, such as used in the ESI, provide independent information on the impacts of extreme hydrologic events on vegetation health in comparison with VI and precipitation-based drought indicators, and used in concert may provide a more reliable evaluation of natural and managed ecosystem response to variable climate regimes.

This review surveys current and emerging drought monitoring approaches using satellite remote sensing observations from climatological and ecosystem perspectives. We argue that satellite observations not currently used for operational drought monitoring, such as near-surface air relative humidity data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder mission, provide opportunities to improve early drought warning. Current and future satellite missions offer opportunities to develop composite and multi-indicator drought models. While there are immense opportunities, there are major challenges including data continuity, unquantified uncertainty, sensor changes, and community acceptability. One of the major limitations of many of the currently available satellite observations is their short length of record. A number of relevant satellite missions and sensors (e.g., the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) provide only a decade of data, which may not be sufficient to study droughts from a climate perspective. However, they still provide valuable information about relevant hydrologic and ecological processes linked to this natural hazard. Therefore, there is a need for models and algorithms that combine multiple data sets and/or assimilate satellite observations into model simulations to generate long-term climate data records. Finally, the study identifies a major gap in indicators for describing drought impacts on the carbon and nitrogen cycle, which are fundamental to assessing drought impacts on ecosystems.

In recent years, increased attention has been paid to the role of previously neglected water source (e.g., irrigation, direct groundwater extraction, and inland water bodies) and sink (e.g., tile drainage) processes on the surface energy balance. However, efforts to parameterize these processes within land surface models (LSMs) have generally been hampered by a lack of appropriate observational tools for directly observing the impact(s) of such processes on surface energy fluxes. One potential strategy for quantifying these impacts are direct comparisons between bottom-up surface energy flux predictions from a one-dimensional, free-drainage LSM with top-down energy flux estimates derived via thermal infrared remote sensing. The neglect of water source (and/or sink) processes in the bottom-up LSM can be potentially diagnosed through the presence of systematic energy flux biases relative to the top-down remote sensing retrieval. Based on this concept, the authors introduce the Atmosphere–Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) Source–Sink for Evapotranspiration (ASSET) index derived from comparisons between ALEXI remote sensing latent heat flux retrievals and comparable estimates obtained from the Noah LSM, version 3.2. Comparisons between ASSET index values and known spatial variations of groundwater depth, irrigation extent, inland water bodies, and tile drainage density within the contiguous United States verify the ability of ASSET to identify regions where neglected soil water source–sink processes may be impacting modeled surface energy fluxes. Consequently, ASSET appears to provide valuable information for ongoing efforts to improve the parameterization of new water source–sink processes within modern LSMs.

Accurately measuring interannual variability in terrestrial evapotranspiration ET is a major challenge for efforts to detect trends in the terrestrial hydrologic cycle. Based on comparisons with annual values of terrestrial evapotranspiration derived from a terrestrial water balance analysis, past research has cast doubt on the ability of existing products to accurately capture variability. Using a variety of estimates, this analysis reexamines this conclusion and finds that estimates of variations obtained from a land surface model are more strongly correlated with independently acquired from thermal infrared remote sensing than derived from water balance considerations. This tendency is attributed to significant interannual variations in terrestrial water storage neglected by the water balance approach. Overall, results demonstrate the need to reassess perceptions concerning the skill of estimates derived from land surface models and show the value of accurate remotely sensed ET products for the validation of interannual ET.

Recent studies have shown that estimates of leaf chlorophyll content (Chl), defined as the combined mass of chlorophyll a and chlorophyll b per unit leaf area, can be useful for constraining estimates of canopy light use efficiency (LUE). Canopy LUE describes the amount of carbon assimilated by a vegetative canopy for a given amount of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) and is a key parameter for modeling land-surface carbon fluxes. A carbon-enabled version of the remote-sensing-based two-source energy balance (TSEB) model simulates coupled canopy transpiration and carbon assimilation using an analytical sub-model of canopy resistance constrained by inputs of nominal LUE (βn), which is modulated within the model in response to varying conditions in light, humidity, ambient CO2 concentration, and temperature. Soil moisture constraints on water and carbon exchange are conveyed to the TSEB-LUE indirectly through thermal infrared measurements of land-surface temperature. We investigate the capability of using Chl estimates for capturing seasonal trends in the canopy βn from in situ measurements of Chl acquired in irrigated and rain-fed fields of soybean and maize near Mead, Nebraska. The results show that field-measured Chl is nonlinearly related to βn, with variability primarily related to phenological changes during early growth and senescence. Utilizing seasonally varying βn inputs based on an empirical relationship with in situ measured Chl resulted in improvements in carbon flux estimates from the TSEB model, while adjusting the partitioning of total water loss between plant transpiration and soil evaporation. The observed Chl–βn relationship provides a functional mechanism for integrating remotely sensed Chl into the TSEB model, with the potential for improved mapping of coupled carbon, water, and energy fluxes across vegetated landscapes.

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key input to physically-based retrieval algorithms of hydrological states and fluxes, and global measurements of LST are provided by many satellite platforms. Passive microwave (MW) observations offer an alternative to thermal infrared (TIR) LST retrieval approaches. Although MW has a lower spatial resolution, its temporal record is more complete as it is more tolerant to clouds. Moreover, merging TIR and MW LST with independent random errors should result in enhanced LST products. Despite these benefits, MW-based LST retrievals are not widely adopted for land applications except as an input to soil moisture retrieval algorithms. This research aims to facilitate expanded use of MW-based LST by formulating a model to explain the systematic differences in comparison to TIR-LST, and quantifying random errors in each datastream. To that end, we compile a 6-year MW-LST dataset over the African continent, combining observations from seven inter-calibrated low orbiting satellites equipped with suitable microwave radiometers. We compare the diurnal timing and amplitude of this dataset to TIR-LST time-series produced by LSA-SAF from the Meteosat Second Generation geostationary satellite. A third independent data source, the skin temperature as modeled by the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) as produced at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, is included in a triple collocation analysis to calculate the random error in the amplitude anomaly. Results suggest that the anomaly in diurnal LST amplitude over much of the African domain can be estimated from TIR and MW with similar levels of random error for clear sky days, except over dry sandy desert areas where the MW sensing depth extends too far below the surface. The temporal sampling advantage of MW, due to higher cloud tolerance in comparison with TIR retrievals, appears to be substantial but will need to be verified by follow-on studies. Overall the results of this study present a significant step forward in reconciling the systematic differences in LST, preparing the way for a global merger of MW and TIR LST time-series.

In this study, the potential utility of using rapid temporal changes in drought indices to provide early warning of an elevated risk for drought development over subseasonal time scales is assessed. Standardized change anomalies were computed each week during the 2000–13 growing seasons for drought indices depicting anomalies in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and soil moisture. A rapid change index (RCI) that encapsulates the accumulated magnitude of rapid changes in the weekly anomalies was computed each week for each drought index, and then a simple statistical method was used to convert the RCI values into drought intensification probabilities depicting the likelihood that drought severity as analyzed by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) would worsen in subsequent weeks. Local and regional case study analyses revealed that elevated drought intensification probabilities often occur several weeks prior to changes in the USDM and in topsoil moisture and crop condition datasets compiled by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Statistical analyses showed that the RCI-derived probabilities are most reliable and skillful over the central and eastern United States in regions most susceptible to rapid drought development. Taken together, these results suggest that tools used to identify areas experiencing rapid changes in drought indices may be useful components of future drought early warning systems.

The Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) on Landsat 8 is the latest thermal sensor in that series of missions. Unlike the previous single-channel sensors, TIRS uses two channels to cover the 10–12.5 micron band. It is also a pushbroom imager; a departure from the previous whiskbroom approach. Nevertheless, the instrument requirements are defined such that data continuity is maintained. This paper describes the design of the TIRS instrument, the results of pre-launch calibration measurements and shows an example of initial on-orbit science performance compared to Landsat 7.

India faced a major heat wave during the summer of 2015. Temperature anomalies peaked in the dry period before the onset of the summer monsoon, suggesting that local land-atmosphere feedbacks involving desiccated soils and vegetation might have played a role in driving the heat extreme. Upon examination of in situ data, reanalysis, satellite observations, and land surface models, we find that the heat wave included two distinct peaks: one in late May, and a second in early June. During the first peak we find that clear skies led to a positive net radiation anomaly at the surface, but there is no significant sensible heat flux anomaly within the core of the heat wave affected region. By the time of the second peak, however, soil moisture had dropped to anomalously low levels in the core heat wave region, net surface radiation was anomalously high, and a significant positive sensible heat flux anomaly developed. This led to a substantial local forcing on air temperature that contributed to the intensity of the event. The analysis indicates that the highly agricultural landscape of North and Central India can reinforce heat extremes under dry conditions.

Advances in sensing, wireless communication, and data analytics have enabled various monitoring systems for smart health applications. However, many challenges remain to deploy such systems in actual homes, such as achieving robustness, unobtrusiveness, fault tolerance, privacy, and minimal user burden. This paper presents how these challenges were overcome in the realization and successful prototype deployment of the Behavioral and Environmental Sensing and Intervention (BESI) system. BESI is designed to sense behavioral activities using wearables and monitor environmental parameters with in-home sensors. With such data, behavioral patterns can then be modeled to determine associations with environmental attributes and, when appropriate, real-time notifications or interventions can be made based on these models. Challenges in building platforms with residential deployment constraints are discussed. BESI is currently deployed for an in-home study on dementia, and the results are presented to illustrate data collection procedures and system performance.