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Abstract Background Health workforce projection models are integral components of a robust healthcare system. This research aims to review recent advancements in methodology and approaches for health workforce projection models and proposes a set of good practice reporting guidelines. Methods We conducted a systematic review by searching medical and social science databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and EconLit, covering the period from 2010 to 2023. The inclusion criteria encompassed studies projecting the demand for and supply of the health workforce. PROSPERO registration: CRD 42023407858. Results Our review identified 40 relevant studies, including 39 single countries analysis (in Australia, Canada, Germany, Ghana, Guinea, Ireland, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Lesotho, Malawi, New Zealand, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Spain, Thailand, UK, United States), and one multiple country analysis (in 32 OECD countries). Recent studies have increasingly embraced a complex systems approach in health workforce modelling, incorporating demand, supply, and demand–supply gap analyses. The review identified at least eight distinct types of health workforce projection models commonly used in recent literature: population-to-provider ratio models (n = 7), utilization models (n = 10), needs-based models (n = 25), skill-mixed models (n = 5), stock-and-flow models (n = 40), agent-based simulation models (n = 3), system dynamic models (n = 7), and budgetary models (n = 5). Each model has unique assumptions, strengths, and limitations, with practitioners often combining these models. Furthermore, we found seven statistical approaches used in health workforce projection models: arithmetic calculation, optimization, time-series analysis, econometrics regression modelling, microsimulation, cohort-based simulation, and feedback causal loop analysis. Workforce projection often relies on imperfect data with limited granularity at the local level. Existing studies lack standardization in reporting their methods. In response, we propose a good practice reporting guideline for health workforce projection models designed to accommodate various model types, emerging methodologies, and increased utilization of advanced statistical techniques to address uncertainties and data requirements. Conclusions This study underscores the significance of dynamic, multi-professional, team-based, refined demand, supply, and budget impact analyses supported by robust health workforce data intelligence. The suggested best-practice reporting guidelines aim to assist researchers who publish health workforce studies in peer-reviewed journals. Nevertheless, it is expected that these reporting standards will prove valuable for analysts when designing their own analysis, encouraging a more comprehensive and transparent approach to health workforce projection modelling.

Abstract This study aims to investigate the trends and project the major risk factors of Non-communicable Diseases (NCDs) in Iran. We obtained the trend of prevalence of main risk factors related to NCDs in 30 to 70-year-old-individuals. The data were extracted from WHO STEP wise approach to NCDs risk factor surveillance (STEPS) survey. Also,the previous studies conducted at national and subnational levels from 2001 to 2016 were employed. The prevalence of risk factors was projected by 2030 using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Spatio-temporal model stratified by sex and province. The percent change for the age-standardized prevalence of smoking in men between 2001 and 2016 was calculated to be − 27.0. Also, the corresponding values for the risk factors of diabetes, hypertension, obesity and overweight, physical inactivity (PI), and mean of salt intake were − 26.1, 29.0, 70.0, 96.8, 116.6, and 7.5, respectively. It is predicted that smoking and these risk factors will undergo a change to show values of − 1.26, 38.7, 43.7, 2.36, and 15.3 by 2030, respectively. The corresponding values in women for the time interval of 2001–2016 were − 27.3, 26.3, 82.8, 1.88, 75.2, and 4.2, respectively. Plus, projections indicate that the 2030 variation values are expected to be − 25.0, 16.7, 37.5, 28.7, 26.7, and 10.9 respectively. This study showed that the prevalence of four risk factors of PI, overweight and obesity, hypertension, and diabetes is increasing in Iran. Therefor, it is necessary to carry out effective interventions to adopt a healthy lifestyle and reduce the risk factors.

Abstract The classical Cauchy surface area formula states that the surface area of the boundary ∂ K = Σ $\partial K=\Sigma $ of any n-dimensional convex body in the n-dimensional Euclidean space R n $\mathbb{R}^{n}$ can be obtained by the average of the projected areas of Σ along all directions in S n − 1 $\mathbb{S}^{n-1}$ . In this note, we generalize the formula to the boundary of arbitrary n-dimensional submanifold in R n $\mathbb{R}^{n}$ by introducing a natural notion of projected areas along any direction in S n − 1 $\mathbb{S}^{n-1}$ . This surface area formula derived from the new notion coincides with not only the result of the Crofton formula but also with that of De Jong (Math. Semesterber. 60(1):81–83, 2013) by using a tubular neighborhood. We also define the projected r-volumes of Σ onto any r-dimensional subspaces and obtain a recursive formula for mean projected r-volumes of Σ.

Abstract Diabetes Mellitus is one of the biggest health problems in Indonesia but the research on the disease’s projection is still limited. This study aimed to make a projection model of prevalence and mortality of diabetes in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD programs. The study was a quantitative non-experimental study through multiple linear regression models and system dynamics. The baseline projection was created by 2018 data and projections until 2045 involved the dynamization of risk factors and programs, population, and case fatality rate. The model was created from 205 districts data. This study used secondary data from Basic Health Research, BPJS Kesehatan, NCD programs, and Ministry of Health. The prevalence of diabetes in Indonesia is estimated to increase from 9.19% in 2020 (18.69 million cases) to 16.09% in 2045 (40.7 million cases). The prevalence will be lower to 15.68% (39.6 million) if interventions of programs were carried out, and to 9.22% (23.2 million) if the programs were added with prevention of risk factors. The projected number of deaths due to diabetes increases from 433,752 in 2020 to 944,468 in 2045. Deaths due to stroke among diabetes increases from 52,397 to 114,092 in the same period. Deaths from IHD among diabetes increase from 35,351 to 76,974, and deaths from chronic kidney disease among diabetes increase from 29,061 to 63,279. Diabetes prevalence and mortality in Indonesia rise significantly in Indonesia and can be reduced by intervention of several programs and risk factors. This study findings could be source of planning and evaluation of Diabetes prevention and control program at national and provincial level in the future related to risk factors control and program development.

Projection Mapping are considered a technological innovation that allows designers to be able to make drawings or videos to unite with any surface like buildings or roads, projection shows have many phases, these phases start with pre-production process where fitting of photos and videos take place within a three dimensional prototype for the surface of projection to give it its final appearance, then the second phase includes getting to know the projectors being used for the show in addition to getting to know the programs that will be used to add vitality to an advertising. Because using such thing can result in making an advertising more vivid in audience’s minds than other methods -may be because of amazing drawings, or because of unique three or four dimensional experiences or interactive combinations that they enjoyed- and that is the effect caused by Projection Mapping for the audience, this lead to advertisers putting it among the newest ways of advertising as it accomplishes the connective targets, and because of scarcity of research papers talking about artistic basis for Projection Mapping in advertising in Egypt and applying it to different surfaces in this research I tried to be able to specify the artistic basis for light projection in advertising events through descriptive method for light projection shows, in addition to displaying some models where Projection Mapping are being used. In order to accomplish the target of the research definition of Projection Mapping is being made in addition to displaying some light projection show examples and in order to achieve the target of this research some points are displayed such as Projection Mapping definition, its types, and its contents in addition to displaying the basis of making a light projection show like those made by companies specified in Projection Mapping used in advertising events, then we will display some suggestions for ideas that can be used in advertising events, then we will analyze some examples of light projection used in advertising events and we will conclude that Projection Mapping are a method that can facilitate the work of advertising agencies and designers as they can apply it to be able to get unique advertising ideas in order to create interaction between the audience and the event

ObjectivesTo make projections of cigarette consumption that incorporate state-specific trends in smoking behaviors, assess the potential for states to reach an ideal target, and identify State-specific targets for cigarette consumption.MethodsWe used 70 years (1950-2020) of annual state-specific estimates of per capita cigarette consumption (expressed as packs per capita or "ppc") from the Tax Burden on Tobacco reports (N = 3550). We summarized trends within each state by linear regression models and the variation in rates across states by the Gini coefficient. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to make state-specific forecasts of ppc from 2021 through 2035.ResultsSince 1980, the average rate of decline in US per capita cigarette consumption was 3.3% per year, but rates of decline varied considerably across US states (SD = 1.1% per year). The Gini coefficient showed growing inequity in cigarette consumption across US states. After reaching its lowest level in 1984 (Gini = 0.09), the Gini coefficient began increasing by 2.8% (95% CI: 2.5%, 3.1%) per year from 1985 to 2020 and is projected to continue to increase by 48.1% (95% PI = 35.3%, 64.2%) from 2020 to 2035 (Gini = 0.35; 95% PI: 0.32, 0.39). Forecasts from ARIMA models suggested that only 12 states have a realistic chance (≥50%) of reaching very low levels of per capita cigarette consumption (≤13 ppc) by 2035, but that all US states have opportunity to make some progress.ConclusionWhile ideal targets may be out of reach for most US states within the next decade, every US state has the potential to lower its per capita cigarette consumption, and our identification of more realistic targets may provide a helpful incentive.

Given the importance of coastal upwelling systems to ocean productivity, fisheries, and biogeochemical cycles, their response to climate change is of great interest. However, there is no consensus on future productivity changes in these systems, which may be controlled by multiple drivers including wind‐driven and geostrophic transport, stratification, and source water properties. Here we use an ensemble of regional ocean projections and recently developed upwelling indices for the California Current System to disentangle these sometimes‐competing influences. Some changes are consistent among models (e.g., decreased mixed layer depth), while for others there is a lack of agreement even on the direction of future change (e.g., nitrate concentration in upwelled waters). Despite models' diverging projections of productivity changes, they agree that those changes are predominantly driven by subsurface nitrate concentrations, not by upwelling strength. Our results highlight the need for more attention to processes governing subsurface nutrient changes, not just upwelling strength. Plain Language Summary: The California Current System is one of the world's eastern boundary upwelling systems—some of the most productive regions in the global ocean. These regions support a wide range of human activities, such as fisheries and tourism, motivating extensive research on how they might evolve under future climate change. A number of hypotheses have been offered to describe future physical and chemical change in these systems, and in terms of their impacts on primary production (which forms the base of the marine food web), these mechanisms may reinforce or oppose each other. Enhanced nutrient concentrations in upwelling source waters would support higher productivity, increased stratification would limit nutrient supply and productivity, and increased upwelling could enhance productivity to a point but limit productivity if it is too strong. There is no consensus on which mechanism(s) will predominantly drive future productivity changes. Here we provide a detailed analysis of projected physical and biogeochemical changes and how they relate to productivity changes. Even though different models project different futures, we find that in all of them the primary control on productivity is the nitrate concentration of subsurface waters, not the strength of upwelling, which has received more attention to date. Key Points: Future changes in the California Current System are evaluated using an ensemble of downscaled ocean projectionsWe evaluate changes in Ekman and geostrophic transports, water column structure, and subsurface nitrate concentrationsAcross models, phytoplankton biomass changes are more closely tied to subsurface nitrate concentration than upwelling strength [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce a new relaxed method for solving the split feasibility problem in Hilbert spaces. In our method, the projection to the halfspace is replaced by the one to the intersection of two halfspaces. We give convergence of the sequence generated by our method under some suitable assumptions. Finally, we give a numerical example for illustrating the efficiency and implementation of our algorithms in comparison with existing algorithms in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The order Chiroptera includes 55 species in Nepal, which have been recorded within a wide range of elevation between 64 and 4154 m above sea level. Assessing the potential distribution ranges in present climatic scenarios and forecasting changes in distribution ranges in future climate have been adopted to predict likely adverse impacts on biodiversity and natural ecosystems. However, very few studies have assessed the impact of climate change on bats globally and locally. We assessed the current potential distribution ranges of six representative species of bats occurring in Nepal using species distribution models (SDMs) and predicted their responses in future climatic scenarios. The occurrences of the representative species of bats were projected with six to eight environmental variables under the different climatic scenarios; present, and socioeconomic pathways 4.5 and 8.5 for the years of 2050 and 2070 deploying maximum entropy modeling. We used Arc GIS 10.7.1 to calculate the distribution range, area, and elevation for the bat species. Among 18 uncorrelated bioclimatic variables eight variables significantly contributed to the SDMs. Among the six species, two showed a wider range of current distribution. Under the future climatic scenarios, distribution ranges and latitudinal and elevation shifting were found to be species specific. Future distribution ranges for two species are predicted to be constricted, but no significant changes are predicted for the others. Major parts of the current and future distribution ranges of the bat species lie outside the current protected areas of the country. Landscape level and species‐specific conservation policies are necessary for bat conservation, and future surveys of bats should be targeted in western Nepal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cet article décrit le poids, les facteurs de risque, la mortalité et les tendances évolutives et à venir des fractures de l'extrémité supérieure du fémur en France. Le choix s'est porté sur l'analyse des données nationales disponibles en France avec notamment un focus méthodologique sur la caractérisation de l'événement et des paramètres associés étudiés. Si cette fracture est notamment observée chez le sujet âgé (60 ans et plus) et la femme, on ne peut négliger le rôle d'autres facteurs de risque tels les comorbidités avec notamment une place pour la démence et la dialyse, les fractures ostéoporotiques antérieures et l'insuffisance de prise en charge thérapeutique. La mortalité immédiate ou dans les suites de cette facture, qu'elle soit attribuable ou non à cette dernière, n'est pas à être sous-estimée. Si la tendance montre une augmentation du nombre des hospitalisations notamment liée aux évolutions démographiques, les projections estimées soulignent une hausse préoccupante, en particulier chez la femme, nécessitant une attention immédiate et des stratégies préventives efficaces. Il persiste le besoin de prioriser l'ostéoporose en tant que préoccupation majeure de santé publique en France. This article describes the burden, risk factors, mortality, and evolutionary and future trends of upper femoral fractures of the in France. The choice was made to analyze the national data available in France, with a methodological focus on characterizing the event and the associated parameters studied. While this fracture is particularly common in the elderly (aged 60 and over), especially women, the role of other factors cannot be overlooked, such as co-morbidities (with a particular focus on dementia and dialysis), previous osteoporotic fractures and inadequate therapeutic management. Mortality, whether or no attributable to the fracture, should not be underestimated. While the trend shows an increase in the number of hospital admissions, linked to demographic trends, estimated projections point to a worrying rise, particularly among women, requiring immediate attention and effective preventive strategies. There is still a need to prioritize osteoporosis as a major public health concern in France. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For each pair of matrices A and B with the same order, let ‖ A − B ‖ F denote their Frobenius distance. This paper deals mainly with the Frobenius distances from projections to an idempotent matrix. For every idempotent Q ∈ C n × n , a projection m (Q) called the matched projection can be induced. It is proved that m (Q) is the unique projection whose Frobenius distance away from Q takes the minimum value among all the Frobenius distances from projections to Q , while I n − m (Q) is the unique projection whose Frobenius distance away from Q takes the maximum value. Furthermore, it is proved that for every number α between the minimum value and the maximum value, there exists a projection P whose Frobenius distance away from Q takes the value α. Based on the above characterization of the minimum distance, some Frobenius norm upper bounds and lower bounds of ‖ P − Q ‖ F are derived under the condition of P Q = Q on a projection P and an idempotent Q. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Offshore wind speed in China plays a key role in affecting air–sea interactions, coastal tides, and wind energy, but its changes in a warming climate and the associated causes remain unclear. Based on the ERA5 reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, this study evaluates the past and future variations of wind speed at 10 m (WS10) over China's offshore seas in summer and winter. The results show that the CMIP6 multi-model mean performs well in simulating the climatological patterns (1981–2010) of WS10 for both seasons. The trends and leading variabilities in WS10 are also reasonably reproduced in the South China Sea (SCS). In the northern SCS, WS10 has strengthened during both seasons in the recent decades. In contrast, in the East China Sea (ECS), WS10 has increased (decreased) during summer (winter). Further attribution analysis suggests that the forcing of greenhouse gasses (aerosols) may make WS10 stronger (weaker) in the two seas and for both seasons, while natural variability tends to slow down (speed up) WS10 in the SCS and ECS during summer (winter). In addition, according to the CMIP6 model projections under various warming scenarios, WS10 is likely to increase over both the northern SCS and the ECS in summer, while WS10 will increase over the northern SCS but decrease over the ECS in winter. Differences in the projected WS10 changes in the ECS during summer and winter are attributed to the projected intensification (weakening) of the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Right C-restriction semigroups are the common generalizations of right C-rpp semigroups and right C-lpp semigroups. The structure of such a semigroup is established in terms of the Δ -product of a right regular band and a C-restriction semigroup. As its applications, we give the structures of right C-rpp semigroups and right C-lpp semigroups. Also, we give the dual wreath product structure of right C-restriction semigroups. These results extend the related results in (Semigroup Forum 68 (2004) 280–292) and (Algebra Colloquium 14 (2007) 285–294). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since publication, no elements of Ethan Frome have received more critical controversy than its tragic theme and gloomy tone. Although they are thought to be related to Edith Wharton's passion and moral contradictions at that time, there has been a lack of strategic, systematic and cognitive study on it in contemporary research. Reading the novelette via cognitive and personality systems approaches suggests that Wharton draws on the tragedy to narrate her own cognitive dissonance and redemption. She attempts to redeem the inconsistent self derived from her personality conflicts by projecting it onto conflicting characters, disharmonized narrative voices and a culture that overlooks emotional needs. However, she cannot counteract her guilt of crime and punishment because the emotional adjustments and cognition cannot stand up to the scrutiny of reason identified by social group. The interplay among her true needs of relationships, alienated social culture and the universal reason fails to reconcile Wharton's cognitive dissonance and results in the gloomy ending of the story. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Health workforce projection models are integral components of a robust healthcare system. This research aims to review recent advancements in methodology and approaches for health workforce projection models and proposes a set of good practice reporting guidelines. Methods: We conducted a systematic review by searching medical and social science databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and EconLit, covering the period from 2010 to 2023. The inclusion criteria encompassed studies projecting the demand for and supply of the health workforce. PROSPERO registration: CRD 42023407858. Results: Our review identified 40 relevant studies, including 39 single countries analysis (in Australia, Canada, Germany, Ghana, Guinea, Ireland, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Lesotho, Malawi, New Zealand, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Spain, Thailand, UK, United States), and one multiple country analysis (in 32 OECD countries). Recent studies have increasingly embraced a complex systems approach in health workforce modelling, incorporating demand, supply, and demand–supply gap analyses. The review identified at least eight distinct types of health workforce projection models commonly used in recent literature: population-to-provider ratio models (n = 7), utilization models (n = 10), needs-based models (n = 25), skill-mixed models (n = 5), stock-and-flow models (n = 40), agent-based simulation models (n = 3), system dynamic models (n = 7), and budgetary models (n = 5). Each model has unique assumptions, strengths, and limitations, with practitioners often combining these models. Furthermore, we found seven statistical approaches used in health workforce projection models: arithmetic calculation, optimization, time-series analysis, econometrics regression modelling, microsimulation, cohort-based simulation, and feedback causal loop analysis. Workforce projection often relies on imperfect data with limited granularity at the local level. Existing studies lack standardization in reporting their methods. In response, we propose a good practice reporting guideline for health workforce projection models designed to accommodate various model types, emerging methodologies, and increased utilization of advanced statistical techniques to address uncertainties and data requirements. Conclusions: This study underscores the significance of dynamic, multi-professional, team-based, refined demand, supply, and budget impact analyses supported by robust health workforce data intelligence. The suggested best-practice reporting guidelines aim to assist researchers who publish health workforce studies in peer-reviewed journals. Nevertheless, it is expected that these reporting standards will prove valuable for analysts when designing their own analysis, encouraging a more comprehensive and transparent approach to health workforce projection modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal and human dirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease, being one of the most important diseases in Europe. In Serbia, there are extensive studies reporting the presence of Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens, mainly in the north of the country, where the human population is concentrated and where there is a presence of culicid mosquitoes that transmit the disease. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) has proven to be a very good tool to predict the appearance of parasitosis in very diverse areas, with distant orography and climatologies at a local, continental, and global level. Taking these factors into account, the objective of this study was to develop an environmental model for Serbia that reflects the suitability of the ecological niche for the risk of infection with Dirofilaria spp. with which the predictive power of existing studies is improved. A wide set of variables related to the transmission of the parasite were used. The potential number of generations of D. immitis and the ecological niche modeling method (ENM) were used to estimate the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens. The highest probability of infection risk was located in the north of the country, and the lowest in the southern regions, where there is more orographic relief and less human activity. The model was corroborated with the location of D. immitis-infected dogs, with 89.28% of the country having a high probability of infection. In addition, it was observed that the percentage of territory with optimal habitat for Culex spp. will increase significantly between now and 2080. This new model can be used as a tool in the control and prevention of heartworm disease in Serbia, due to its high predictive power, and will serve to alert veterinary and health personnel of the presence of the disease in the animal and human population, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries around the world are rapidly advancing sustainable development (SD) through the exploitation of clean energy sources such as solar and wind energy, which are becoming the core of the sustainable energy transition. In recent years, the continuous advancement of Earth system models (ESMs) has facilitated numerous studies utilizing them to predict long-term and large-scale meteorological elements, consequently enabling forecasts of wind and solar energy. These forecasts provide critical guidance for formulating national renewable energy policies. Nevertheless, the current literature on ESMs predicting wind and solar energy lacks sufficient integration. Hence, to comprehend the focal points and future research prospects, we conducted this systematic review, employing four academic search tools to comprehensively analyze the relevant literature from the past five years. We summarized the general analytical process and compared the content and conclusions of the literature. The study reveals that future photovoltaic (PV) potential for electricity generation may increase in certain regions but decrease in others, while the global potential for concentrated solar power (CSP) may diminish, influenced by diverse factors and displaying significant regional disparities. In addition, wind resource trends vary in different regions, and forecasts exhibit considerable uncertainty. Therefore, many studies have corrected wind speeds prior to predicting wind energy. Subsequent research endeavors should concentrate on optimizing ESMs, investigating the impacts of technological innovation, and enhancing the prediction and analysis of extreme weather events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to investigate the trends and project the major risk factors of Non-communicable Diseases (NCDs) in Iran. We obtained the trend of prevalence of main risk factors related to NCDs in 30 to 70-year-old-individuals. The data were extracted from WHO STEP wise approach to NCDs risk factor surveillance (STEPS) survey. Also,the previous studies conducted at national and subnational levels from 2001 to 2016 were employed. The prevalence of risk factors was projected by 2030 using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Spatio-temporal model stratified by sex and province. The percent change for the age-standardized prevalence of smoking in men between 2001 and 2016 was calculated to be − 27.0. Also, the corresponding values for the risk factors of diabetes, hypertension, obesity and overweight, physical inactivity (PI), and mean of salt intake were − 26.1, 29.0, 70.0, 96.8, 116.6, and 7.5, respectively. It is predicted that smoking and these risk factors will undergo a change to show values of − 1.26, 38.7, 43.7, 2.36, and 15.3 by 2030, respectively. The corresponding values in women for the time interval of 2001–2016 were − 27.3, 26.3, 82.8, 1.88, 75.2, and 4.2, respectively. Plus, projections indicate that the 2030 variation values are expected to be − 25.0, 16.7, 37.5, 28.7, 26.7, and 10.9 respectively. This study showed that the prevalence of four risk factors of PI, overweight and obesity, hypertension, and diabetes is increasing in Iran. Therefor, it is necessary to carry out effective interventions to adopt a healthy lifestyle and reduce the risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Augmented reality (AR) in laparoscopic liver resection (LLR) can improve intrahepatic navigation by creating a virtual liver transparency. Our team has recently developed Hepataug, an AR software that projects the invisible intrahepatic tumors onto the laparoscopic images and allows the surgeon to localize them precisely. However, the accuracy of registration according to the location and size of the tumors, as well as the influence of the projection axis, have never been measured. The aim of this work was to measure the three-dimensional (3D) tumor prediction error of Hepataug. Eight 3D virtual livers were created from the computed tomography scan of a healthy human liver. Reference markers with known coordinates were virtually placed on the anterior surface. The virtual livers were then deformed and 3D printed, forming 3D liver phantoms. After placing each 3D phantom inside a pelvitrainer, registration allowed Hepataug to project virtual tumors along two axes: the laparoscope axis and the operator port axis. The surgeons had to point the center of eight virtual tumors per liver with a pointing tool whose coordinates were precisely calculated. We obtained 128 pointing experiments. The average pointing error was 29.4 ± 17.1 mm and 9.2 ± 5.1 mm for the laparoscope and operator port axes respectively (P = 0.001). The pointing errors tended to increase with tumor depth (correlation coefficients greater than 0.5 with P < 0.001). There was no significant dependency of the pointing error on the tumor size for both projection axes. Tumor visualization by projection toward the operating port improves the accuracy of AR guidance and partially solves the problem of the two-dimensional visual interface of monocular laparoscopy. Despite a lower precision of AR for tumors located in the posterior part of the liver, it could allow the surgeons to access these lesions without completely mobilizing the liver, hence decreasing the surgical trauma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The classical Cauchy surface area formula states that the surface area of the boundary ∂ K = Σ of any n-dimensional convex body in the n-dimensional Euclidean space R n can be obtained by the average of the projected areas of Σ along all directions in S n − 1 . In this note, we generalize the formula to the boundary of arbitrary n-dimensional submanifold in R n by introducing a natural notion of projected areas along any direction in S n − 1 . This surface area formula derived from the new notion coincides with not only the result of the Crofton formula but also with that of De Jong (Math. Semesterber. 60(1):81–83, 2013) by using a tubular neighborhood. We also define the projected r-volumes of Σ onto any r-dimensional subspaces and obtain a recursive formula for mean projected r-volumes of Σ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While there has been extensive research on colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and its associated factors in Iran, a significant gap exists in studies predicting its future trends. Our study aimed to thoroughly report CRC incidence across Iran from 2014 to 2017, by sex, age, and geographical regions, and provide a projection for 2025. Methods: This retrospective study utilized data from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR). Patients with the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, 3rd Edition (ICD-O-3) codes C18 to C21 were included. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR), was calculated per 100 000 individuals annually, and crude incidence rates were retrieved for various demographic groups and years. Results: Between 2014 and 2017, a total of 43 580 new CRC cases (55.96% males) were registered. Men exhibited an ASR of 134.45, while women's ASR was 94.85. The highest ASRs were observed in Tehran, Qom, and Ilam (18.99, 18.26, and 18.06, respectively). Incidence rates surpassed 20 after age 50 for both genders, reaching their peak within the 80-84 age group. Adenocarcinoma was the most frequent histological type of CRC in nearly all provinces. Case numbers and ASRs are projected to continuously rise until 2025, with a predominance of male cases. Conclusion: The anticipated increase in CRC incidence in Iran emphasizes the need for additional studies to better identify risk factors. Furthermore, implementing screening programs is recommended for individuals at a higher risk of CRC, including men, the elderly population, and those residing in regions with a notable prevalence of CRC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presuppositions are typically considered as projective inferences that are triggered by certain expressions and taken for granted. Whereas Simons (Simons, Mandy. 2001. On the conversational basis of some presuppositions. Semantics and Linguistic Theory 11. 431–448) observes that expressions with a similar semantic content belonging to the same language give rise to the same presupposition, this has not been investigated in a systematic way for semantically equivalent expressions from different languages. Furthermore, more recent research has shown that different presupposition triggers are characterized by differing projective strength, therefore, a distinction of highly projective hard triggers and less projective soft triggers has been proposed (Abusch, Dorit. 2002. Lexical alternatives as a source of pragmatic presuppositions. Semantics and Linguistic Theory 12. 1–19, Abusch, Dorit. 2010. Presupposition triggering from alternatives. Journal of Semantics 27(1). 37–80). Here, we present an experiment comparing four classical presupposition triggers from German and their counterparts in Chinese (cleft sentences, win, factive predicates regret and discover) in order to a) investigate the cross-linguistic stability of their projective strength and b) to verify the heterogeneity of these triggers in both languages. Our results show that the projective behavior and the heterogeneity of presuppositions can be considered cross-linguistically stable, at least when suitable equivalences for both languages can be found. Furthermore, our data suggest that the group of soft triggers has to be more heterogeneous than previously assumed. More precisely, whereas hard triggers behave the same way, it is possible that each soft trigger might be soft in its own way. In sum, our experimental investigation aims to improve the understanding of presuppositions, the underlying triggering process and their projective behavior across different languages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Originally developed for estimating healthy life expectancy, the traditional Sullivan method continues to be a popular tool for obtaining point-in-time estimates of the population impacts of a wide range of health and social conditions. However, except in rare data-intensive cases, the method is subject to stringent stationarity assumptions, which often do not align with real-world conditions and restrict its resulting estimates and applications. In this research note, we present an expansion of the original method to apply within a population projection framework. The Sullivan method projection framework produces estimates that offer new insights about future trends in population health and social arrangements under various demographic and epidemiologic scenarios, such as the percentage of life years that population members can expect to spend with a condition of interest in a time interval under different assumptions. We demonstrate the utility of this framework using the case of long COVID, illustrating both its operation and potential to reveal insights about emergent population health challenges under various theoretically informed scenarios. The traditional Sullivan method provides a summary measure of the present, while its incorporation into a projection framework enables preparation for a variety of potential futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the connection between ellipsoids and positive semidefinite matrices we provide alternative proofs to some recently proven inequalities concerning the volume of L 2 zonoids as consequences of classical inequalities for matrices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The Filmmuseum in Düsseldorf has opened a new research and exhibition space called "Ed. Liesegang. Projektionsgeschichte(n) aus Düsseldorf" to showcase over 150 years of photographic and cinematographic technology history. The collection includes around 300 devices, film and photo materials, and company documents. The museum has been working on digitizing the collection, making it accessible to the public and researchers. The museum also organized a series of events called "Leuchtende Freude mit Liesegang" to strengthen the connection between the museum and its collections. The events included lectures on topics such as the history of slide shows, cinematography, and the use of image bands. [Extracted from the article]

Effective estimation of covariance matrices is crucial for statistical analyses and applications. In this paper, we focus on the robust estimation of covariance matrix for interval-valued data in low and moderately high dimensions. In the low-dimensional scenario, we extend the Minimum Covariance Determinant (MCD) estimator to interval-valued data. We derive an iterative algorithm for computing this estimator, demonstrate its convergence, and theoretically establish that it retains the high breakdown-point property of the MCD estimator. Further, we propose a projection-based estimator and a regularization-based estimator to extend the MCD estimator to moderately high-dimensional settings, respectively. We propose efficient iterative algorithms for solving these two estimators and demonstrate their convergence properties. We conduct extensive simulation studies and real data analysis to validate the finite sample properties of these proposed estimators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By acquiring the CT (Computed Tomography) simulation projection images of artistic relics, the visual expression ability of artistic relics is improved, and a method of acquiring CT simulation projection of artistic relics based on voxel model is proposed. The geometric primitive is established by using the geometric information of artistic objects, and the three-dimensional surface of the objects is reconstructed by the voxel model reconstruction method with intersecting surfaces. The surface rendering of artistic relics is divided into voxel level and slice level. The surface of the object composed of small patches is redrawn by using graphics. The slice level reconstruction method is used to reduce redundant patches in the CT simulation projection process of artistic relics, and the number of points and patches is reduced. By adjusting the transparency of the object, the result can not only show the outer surface of the object, but also the contour edge correspondence and contour stitching algorithm are used to improve the reconstruction accuracy and speed. According to the three-dimensional feature expression of voxel model, the fusion and reorganization of intermediate geometric primitives are realized. The simulation results show that the effect of CT simulation projection reconstruction and three-dimensional visual expression of artistic relics using this method is good, and the accuracy and speed of CT reconstruction of artistic relics are high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diabetes Mellitus is one of the biggest health problems in Indonesia but the research on the disease's projection is still limited. This study aimed to make a projection model of prevalence and mortality of diabetes in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD programs. The study was a quantitative non-experimental study through multiple linear regression models and system dynamics. The baseline projection was created by 2018 data and projections until 2045 involved the dynamization of risk factors and programs, population, and case fatality rate. The model was created from 205 districts data. This study used secondary data from Basic Health Research, BPJS Kesehatan, NCD programs, and Ministry of Health. The prevalence of diabetes in Indonesia is estimated to increase from 9.19% in 2020 (18.69 million cases) to 16.09% in 2045 (40.7 million cases). The prevalence will be lower to 15.68% (39.6 million) if interventions of programs were carried out, and to 9.22% (23.2 million) if the programs were added with prevention of risk factors. The projected number of deaths due to diabetes increases from 433,752 in 2020 to 944,468 in 2045. Deaths due to stroke among diabetes increases from 52,397 to 114,092 in the same period. Deaths from IHD among diabetes increase from 35,351 to 76,974, and deaths from chronic kidney disease among diabetes increase from 29,061 to 63,279. Diabetes prevalence and mortality in Indonesia rise significantly in Indonesia and can be reduced by intervention of several programs and risk factors. This study findings could be source of planning and evaluation of Diabetes prevention and control program at national and provincial level in the future related to risk factors control and program development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a new study on hysteria, the author seeks what can be revealed in relation to the classic model of neurosis. It is from clinical experience that the emergence of projection leads us to think about its unique place and role within psychic functioning furthermore supported by repression and internal conflict. The bodily ailments so characteristic of hysterical symptoms arise then from a displacement of the same order when words fail. In certain situations, projection reverses this dominant tendency by the externalization of instinctual movements and the fantasies attached to them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Worldwide climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of species is of special concern when it involves habitat‐forming species. In the coastal environment, large Laminarian algae—kelps—form key coastal ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps, Macrocystis pyrifera is the most widely distributed habitat‐forming species and provides essential ecosystem services. This study aimed to establish the main drivers of future distributional changes on a global scale and use them to predict future habitat suitability. Using species distribution models (SDM), we examined the changes in global distribution of M. pyrifera under different emission scenarios with a focus on the Southeast Pacific shores. To constrain the drivers of our simulations to the most important factors controlling kelp forest distribution across spatial scales, we explored a suite of environmental variables and validated the predictions derived from the SDMs. Minimum sea surface temperature was the single most important variable explaining the global distribution of suitable habitat for M. pyrifera. Under different climate change scenarios, we always observed a decrease of suitable habitat at low latitudes, while an increase was detected in other regions, mostly at high latitudes. Along the Southeast Pacific, we observed an upper range contraction of −17.08° S of latitude for 2090–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, implying a loss of habitat suitability throughout the coast of Peru and poleward to −27.83° S in Chile. Along the area of Northern Chile where a complete habitat loss is predicted by our model, natural stands are under heavy exploitation. The loss of habitat suitability will take place worldwide: Significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are likely. Furthermore, changes in habitat suitability are a harbinger of massive impacts in the socio‐ecological systems of the Southeast Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The comprehensive description of hearing loss in China and the shifting pattern remain unclear. We conducted the study to estimate the burden of hearing loss in China and project the trends from 2020 to 2034. Data on the disease burden of hearing loss were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the trends of the age-standardized rates. Projections of hearing loss burden were made until 2034 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. In China, prevalent cases of hearing loss increased from 224.4 million in 1990 to 426.5 million in 2019, representing an increase of 90.1 %. The age-standardized prevalence rate of hearing loss ranged from 22,592.8/100,000 in 1990–22,612.4/100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.003 %, representing a stable trend. Of the category of hearing loss, mild hearing loss accounted for the highest proportion, with 331.4 million people. More than 95 million people had moderate-to-complete hearing loss. Moreover, hearing loss was mostly attributable to age-related and other factors for adults and otitis media for children younger than 10 years. Based on the projection results, there will be 561 million people (40.1 % of the total population) have hearing loss by 2034. The prevalent cases of hearing loss in China substantially increased over the last 30 years. Over two in five Chinese people will have hearing loss by 2034, thus suggesting more solutions should be established to reduce the burden of hearing loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming may increase potential evapotranspiration (ETp), reducing the water resources in Yangzi River Delta. Therefore, it is important to investigate the trend of ETp there under the background of climate change. To this purpose, the systematic biases in temperature outputs of 24 global climate models (GCMs) under 3 shared socioeconomic pathways—representative concentration pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5)—are first corrected by using 8 bias correction methods. Then, the trend of ETp in Yangtze River Delta is projected by using 4 ETp calculation formulas (Blaney–Criddle, Hargreaves–Samani, Makkink, and Priestley–Taylor). The uncertainty of the projections is estimated and decomposed by using multi-way analysis of variance frameworks. The influence of uncertainty on the projected change signal is quantified by using the signal-to-noise ratio. The results show that all emission scenarios indicate robust increments of ETp. Specifically, relative to 1971~2000, ETp will increase by 0.14~0.17 mm d−1 (5.7~6.8%) during 2021~2050 and by 0.21~0.41 mm d−1 (8.5~16.7%) during 2061~2090, respectively. During 2021~2050, the uncertainty of ETp projections is dominantly contributed by the main effects of GCM (63%) and the ETp calculation formula (24%). During 2061~2090, it is mainly contributed by the main effect of GCM (36%), followed by the main effects of the emission scenario (34%) and the ETp calculation formula (18%). The ETp projections are generally reliable and robust during the two projection periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The establishment of refugee settlements has caused profound segmented impacts on the coverage of land use/cover types. Few studies have computed the spatial drivers of land use/cover changes in Refugee prone areas. This study explored how refugee settlements induced geo-changes in land use/cover in Bidi-Bidi refugee settlement in Uganda. Sentinel-2B images (2015, 2017 and 2020) were used to assess and predict (2030 and 2040) the spatial areal extent of land use/cover changes. The images were classified using Supervised algorithm (Maximum-likelihood) and used CA-Markov model to generate transitions into the future. A Binary Logistic regression was used to compute the spatial drivers of geo-changes. Our results reveal that the settlements triggered more geo-changes in built-up (0.6%), refugee settlements (4.1%), and subsistence farmlands (7.0%) at the expense of woodlands (−0.3%), wetlands (−2.9%), and grasslands (−8.3%). The same trajectory will also be expected between 2030 and 2040. The most critical spatial drivers of these changes are as follows: population growth, increased temperatures, precipitation variation, distance to water sources, distance to roads, distance to police posts, and distance to trading centres. To reduce the acceleration of changes in land use/cover types, this study agitates for equal spatial establishment of woodlots, promotion of alternative sources of energy and livelihoods, and settlement construction materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this paper it to explore the possibility to simplify a stochastic complex dynamical system by reducing the number of its degrees of freedom, through a coarse graining procedure. Our objective is to create reduced systems which requires less computational burden to control. In other words, the question is whether one can act on the simplified system to control its evolution towards a given target, so that the same strategy also applies to the full system. We analyze this problem in three stages. First we consider the general case of coarse-graining 1D cellular automata. We show that the procedure is expected to produce extra stochasticity in the system, while still retaining some characteristics of the original system. In a second step, we study a 1D voter model for which the coarse-graining procedure requires component weighting, with weights based on causal paths. Finally, in a third part, we consider the same voter model on a scale-free graph, and perform a reduction according to a partition of the graph in communities. The equivalence between the reduced and full systems, whether controlled or not, is investigated through a delayed mutual information analysis, a concept from information theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flood losses have steadily increased in the past and are expected to grow even further owing to climate and socioeconomic change. The reduction of flood vulnerability, for example, through adaptation, plays a key role in the mitigation of future flood risk. However, lacking knowledge about vulnerability dynamics, which arise from the interaction between floods and the ensuing response by society, limits the scope of current risk projections. We present a socio‐hydrological method for flood risk assessment that simulates the interaction between society and flooding continuously, including changes in vulnerability through collective (structural) and private (non structural) measures. Our probabilistic approach quantifies uncertainties and exploits empirical data to chart risk dynamics including how society copes with flooding. In a case study for the commercial sector in Dresden, Germany, we show that increased adaptation is necessary to counteract the expected four‐fold growth in flood risk due to transient hydroclimatic and socioeconomic boundary conditions. We further use our holistic approach to identify solutions for effective long‐term adaptation, demonstrating that integrated adaptation strategies (i.e., combined structural and non structural measures) can reduce the average risk by up to 60% at the study site. Ultimately, our case study highlights the benefit of the model for robust flood risk assessment as it can capture unintended, adverse feedbacks of adaptation measures such as the levee effect. Consequently, our socio‐hydrological method contributes to a more systemic and reliable flood risk assessment that can inform adaptation planning by exploring the possible system evolutions comprehensively including unlikely futures. Plain Language Summary: The rise in flood losses due to climate and societal changes calls for effective strategies to reduce risks. Understanding how floods interact with society and affect vulnerability is crucial in addressing this challenge. However, current flood risk assessments lack this comprehensive insight. We have developed a novel method that integrates floods and society into a single model, enabling us to comprehend how society's vulnerability to floods changes over time. Our approach examines how communities respond to floods, considering both collective (like constructing levees) and private actions (such as individual property precautions). By factoring in uncertainties and utilizing real‐world data, we improve our understanding of societal flood adaptation. Using the commercial sector in Dresden, Germany, as a case study, we reveal a potential four‐fold increase in future flood risk due to climate and socioeconomic shifts. We propose a combination of collective and private measures, potentially reducing flood risk by up to 60% at the study site. In summary, our method is capable of simulating a wide range of potential futures and uncovering unforeseen challenges that may arise when societies attempt to shield themselves from floods. This aids in robust flood risk management and facilitates better planning for adaptation. Key Points: We present a socio‐hydrological model for continuous flood risk projection that captures vulnerability dynamics and quantifies uncertaintyOur case study highlights the need for effective adaptation to intensifying flood risk and the potential of integrated flood risk managementThe robust flood risk assessment method explores the possibility space comprehensively including adverse feedbacks such as the levee effect [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Control of nasal tip position is critical to final rhinoplasty outcomes. Two frequent methods of exerting tip control are columellar strut and caudal septal extension graft (SEG). Past work has demonstrated that SEG are better able to preserve tip position. However, there is no quantitative data describing long-term projection and rotation. The purpose of this study was to analyze long-term maintenance of tip projection and rotation following SEG. Methods: A retrospective study of adult patients undergoing open rhinoplasty was conducted. Three-dimensional photogrammetric evaluation of nasal tip position was performed. Anthropometric points were analyzed preoperatively and postoperatively. Outcome variables were tip projection, tip rotation, and nasal length. Results: Twenty patients were included with an average follow-up time of 3.3 years (2.0 – 6.6 years). From postoperative week 1 to 6, there was a statistically significant decrease in rotation (−4.3%, p<0.01). There were no statistically significant decreases in projection, rotation, or nasal length from 6 weeks postoperative to 2 years postoperative, or from 6 weeks postoperative to final follow-up (2.0 – 6.6 years). Conclusions: Nasal tip projection and rotation appear to decrease from the immediate postoperative position, likely due to resolving edema. In this study, patients that underwent open rhinoplasty with SEG experienced modest loss of projection and rotation until 6 weeks postoperative, but projection and rotation were maintained from 6 weeks postoperative to 2 years and beyond. This study provides evidence that SEG maintains long-term changes in tip projection and rotation. Level of Evidence IV: This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study employed geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques to analyze land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Lagos State from 2002 to 2022 and to project LULC changes for the year 2050. ENVI 5.3 was utilized for supervised classification via the maximum likelihood technique, categorizing Lagos State into six distinct classes: built-up areas, bare land, wetlands, forest, grassland, and water bodies. Subsequently, the IDRISI-TerrSet so4ware CA-Markov model was employed to predict land use pa7erns for the year 2050. The classification accuracies for 2002 and 2022 were 89.87% and 87.50%, respectively, with kappa coefficients of 0.86 and 0.83, which are considered acceptable. From 2002 to 2022, the built-up area increased by 26.6 km², bare land decreased by 110 km², wetland area decreased by 96 km², forest area decreased by 449 km², grassland area increased by 11 km², and water bodies decreased by 133 km². The projections for year 2050 indicate that from 2022 to 2050, built-up land will increase by 664 km², bare land will increase by 0.7 km², wetlands will decrease by 1.5 km², forests will decrease by 7.6 km², grasslands will increase by 7 km², and water bodies will decrease by 3 km². The findings of this study will assist environmental managers in making well-informed decisions to promote resilient urban growth and sustainable development in Lagos State. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change exerts significant impacts on regional agricultural production. This study assesses the implications of climate change on winter wheat yields in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H Plain), utilizing bias-corrected climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for mid-21st century (2041–2060) and late 21st century (2081–2100) periods under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5). These projections were incorporated into the decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) CERES-Wheat model to forecast potential alterations in winter wheat production. Initial findings reveal that uncorrected CMIP6 projections underestimated temperature and precipitation while overestimating solar radiation across the southern 3H Plain. Following bias correction through the equidistant cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) method, the regional average biases for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were reduced by 18.3%, 5.6%, and 30.7%, respectively. Under the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, mid-21st century simulations predicted a 13% increase in winter wheat yields. Late 21st century projections indicated yield increases of 11.3% and 3.6% under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, with a notable 8.4% decrease in yields south of 36° N under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The analysis of climate change factors and winter wheat yields in the 3H Plain under both scenarios identified precipitation as the key contributing factor to yield increases in the northern 3H Plain, while temperature limitations were the primary constraint on yields in the southern region. Consequently, adaptive strategies are essential to mitigate climate change impacts, with a particular focus on addressing the challenges posed by elevated temperature in the southern 3H Plain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of WISTA Wirtschaft und Statistik is the property of Statistisches Bundesamt and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Abstract Changes in climate and land‐use/land‐cover will impact surface water dynamics throughout the 21st century and influence global surface water availability. However, most projections of surface water dynamics focus on climate drivers using local‐scale hydrological models, with few studies accounting for climate and human drivers such as land‐use/land‐cover change. We used a data‐driven, machine learning model to project seasonal surface water areas (SWAs) in the southeastern U.S. from 2006 to 2099 that combined land‐cover and climate projections under eight different development and emissions scenarios. The model was fitted with historic Landsat imagery, land‐use/land‐cover, and climate observation data (mean squared error 0.14). We assessed the change in SWA for each scenario, and we compared the surface water projections from our data‐driven model and a process‐based model. We found that the scenario with the largest forest‐dominated land cover loss and most extreme climate change had watersheds with the greatest projected increases (in the South Atlantic Gulf) and decreases (in the Lower Mississippi) in SWA. When compared to the increase or decrease in surface water projected by the process‐based model, most of the watersheds across scenarios agreed on the direction of change. Our findings highlight the importance of forest‐dominated land cover in maintaining stable surface water availability throughout the 21st century, which can inform land‐use management policies for adaptation and water‐stress mitigation as well as strategies to prepare for future flood and drought events.

Objective: To map the temporal evolution of overweight and obesity in Brazilian adults and estimate the prevalence of obesity for 2025 and 2030, evaluating the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Method: Data were collected on the nutritional status of adults from 2008 to 2021 from the Food and Nutrition Surveillance System (SISVAN), from which we calculated the prevalence and average annual rates of the variation of overweight and obesity. The projection of obesity, using linear regression, was analyzed in three scenarios: PP: with data from the pre-pandemic period (2008- 2019); outlier: with adjustment of the data trend (2008-2021), including the pandemic period, considering a return of scenario PP for projections from 2022; P: adjustment of pandemic data (2019-2021) to estimate the projection. Result: In the period 2008– 2021, we observed an average annual rate of overweight increase of 0.48 %/year. The prevalence of obesity more than doubled during this period, from 14.5% in 2008 to 32.9% in 2021 (i.e., an increase of 1.42). In the outlier scenario, the prevalence projections for obesity are 38.8% and 45.5% for 2015 and 2030, respectively. In the PP scenario (without the pandemic), the expected prevalence for the same period would be approximately 36.8% and 43.4%, respectively. Conclusion: Obesity and overweight follow an increasing trend. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the increase in the prevalence of obesity in Brazil and impacted its projections for the coming years.

Previous studies have demonstrated health impacts of climate change, but evidence on heatwaves’ associations with road traffic injury (RTI) is limited. In this study, individual information of RTI cases in May-September during 2006–2021 in China were obtained from the National Injury Surveillance System. Daily maximum temperatures (TMmax) during 2006–2021 were collected from the ERA-5 reanalysis, and the projected daily TMmax during 2020–2099 were obtained from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs). We used a time-stratified case-crossover analysis to investigate the association between short-term exposure (lag01 days) to heatwaves (exceeding the 92.5th percentile of daily TMmax for ≥ three consecutive days) and RTI, and to project heatwave-related RTI until 2099 across China. Finally, a total of 1 031 082 RTI cases were included in the analyses. Compared with non-heatwaves, the risks of RTI increased by 3.61 % during heatwaves. Greater associations were found in people aged 15–64 years, in people with transportation occupation, for non-motor traffic vehicle injuries, for severe RTI cases, and in Western China particularly in Qinghai province. We projected substantial increases in attributable fraction (AF) of heatwave-related RTI in the future, particularly in Western and Southwest China. The national average increase in AF (per decade) during 2020s-2090s was 0.036 % for SSP1-2.6 scenario, and 0.267 % for SSP5-8.5 scenario. This study provided evidence on the associations of heatwaves with RTI, and the heatwave-related RTI will substantially increase in the future.

Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures can cause harm to human health. Due to global warming, heat-related health effects are likely to increase substantially in future unless populations adapt to living in a warmer world. Adaptation to temperature may occur through physiological acclimatisation, behavioural mechanisms, and planned adaptation. A fundamental step in informing responses to climate change is understanding how adaptation can be appropriately accounted for when estimating future health burdens. Previous studies modelling adaptation have used a variety of methods, and it is often unclear how underlying assumptions of adaptation are made and if they are based on evidence. Consequently, the most appropriate way to quantitatively model adaptation in projections of health impacts is currently unknown. With increasing interest from decisionmakers around implementation of adaptation strategies, it is important to consider the role of adaptation in anticipating future health burdens of climate change.To address this, a literature review using systematic scoping methods was conducted to document the quantitative methods employed by studies projecting future temperature-related health impacts under climate change that also consider adaptation. Approaches employed in studies were coded into methodological categories. Categories were discussed and refined between reviewers during synthesis.Fifty-nine studies were included and grouped into eight methodological categories. Methods of including adaptation in projections have changed over time with more recent studies using a combination of approaches or modelling adaptation based on specific adaptation strategies or socioeconomic conditions. The most common approaches to model adaptation are heat threshold shifts and reductions in the exposure–response slope. Just under 20% of studies were identified as using an intervention-based empirical basis for statistical assumptions.Including adaptation in projections considerably reduced the projected temperature-mortality burden in the future. Researchers should ensure that all future impact assessments include adaptation uncertainty in projections and assumptions are based on empirical evidence.

This study aims to evaluate the efficiency of all businesses operating in the Freight Transportation Arrangement (FTA) service provider companies in Vietnam in the years 2016–2022 using the Slacks-Based Measure SBM-Max (SM) and super SBM-Max (SSM) models. The analysis was conducted by calculating the ratio between outputs and inputs in the FTA providers’ operational processes. The projection of the SSM model (Pro) and the Rh indicator were used to propose solutions for the inefficient providers by reducing the excessive inputs and increasing the outputs. The empirical results determined the inefficiency term, efficiency term, and rank for each provider every time. Dinh Vu port was identified as the best FTA provider in Vietnam, ranking first or second throughout the term due to its considerable efforts to perform efficiently. It shall be noted that the use of these models can help FTA providers in Vietnam to identify their strengths and weaknesses in terms of operational efficiency. By implementing the proposed solutions, businesses can improve their performance and ultimately increase their competitive advantage in the market. Further research could explore the effectiveness of these models in other industries or countries to provide deeper insights into their potential applications.

ABSTRACTThe establishment of refugee settlements has caused profound segmented impacts on the coverage of land use/cover types. Few studies have computed the spatial drivers of land use/cover changes in Refugee prone areas. This study explored how refugee settlements induced geo-changes in land use/cover in Bidi-Bidi refugee settlement in Uganda. Sentinel-2B images (2015, 2017 and 2020) were used to assess and predict (2030 and 2040) the spatial areal extent of land use/cover changes. The images were classified using Supervised algorithm (Maximum-likelihood) and used CA-Markov model to generate transitions into the future. A Binary Logistic regression was used to compute the spatial drivers of geo-changes. Our results reveal that the settlements triggered more geo-changes in built-up (0.6%), refugee settlements (4.1%), and subsistence farmlands (7.0%) at the expense of woodlands (−0.3%), wetlands (−2.9%), and grasslands (−8.3%). The same trajectory will also be expected between 2030 and 2040. The most critical spatial drivers of these changes are as follows: population growth, increased temperatures, precipitation variation, distance to water sources, distance to roads, distance to police posts, and distance to trading centres. To reduce the acceleration of changes in land use/cover types, this study agitates for equal spatial establishment of woodlots, promotion of alternative sources of energy and livelihoods, and settlement construction materials.

Alla Alsharif,1,&ast; Maha T Alsharif,2,&ast; Meyassara Samman,3,&ast; Nada Binmadi,2,&ast; Saba Kassim,1,&ast; Samah Mourad,4,&ast; Saman Warnakulasuriya5,6,&ast; 1Department of Preventive Dental Sciences, Taibah University Dental College & Hospital, Al-Madinah Al-Munawwarah, Saudi Arabia; 2Department of Oral Diagnostic Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, Faculty of Dentistry, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; 3Department of Dental Public Health at King Abdulaziz University, Faculty of Dentistry, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; 4Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Faculty of Dentistry, Mansoura University, ElMansoura, Eldaqahlia, Egypt; 5Faculty of Dentistry, Oral & Craniofacial Sciences, King’s College London, London, UK; 6World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Oral Cancer, London, UK&ast;These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Maha T Alsharif, Department of Oral Diagnostic Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, Faculty of Dentistry, P.O. Box 80209, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia, Tel +966582862000, Email mtyalsharif@kau.edu.saPurpose: The data available on the incidence and mortality rates of head and neck cancer types (HNCs) in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC) have relied on global trends and covered only certain cancer sites, types or certain age groups. This study aimed to assess the incidence and mortality rates of head and neck cancer (HNCs) within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, providing insights into their geographic variability in 2020.Methods: Prediction of the magnitude of the disease to 2040 was explored based on demographic projections. Estimates of incidence and mortality and the population projections were extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) database and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs respectively for the time frame 2020 to 2040. Additionally, we analyzed the distribution of cases and deaths by age and sex for both time periods.Results: The analysis indicates varying patterns in HNC rates across GCC countries in 2020, with Oman and Saudi Arabia carrying the highest burden. Projections for 2040 reveal a substantial increase in new HNC cases and related deaths, particularly in Qatar, UAE, and Bahrain. Furthermore, incidence rates are predicted to rise significantly for individuals aged 50 and older, while remaining relatively stable for those under 50. With regards to sex, males generally exhibit higher rates, except in Qatar.Conclusion: HNC burden is anticipated to rise significantly in the GCC, with variations per age, sex and geographical location. By 2040, a 2-3-fold increase in HNCs in the GCC is anticipated, emphasizing the need for focused public health strategies to address this rising health challenge.Keywords: head and neck neoplasms, projection, globocan, cancer prevention

AbstractObjective To assess the trends in non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) incidence in Hong Kong from 1990 to 2019 and the associations of age, calendar period, and birth cohort, to make projections to 2030, and to examine the drivers of NMSC incidence.Methods We assessed the age, calendar period, and birth cohort effects of NMSC incidence in Hong Kong between 1990 and 2019 using an age-period-cohort model. Using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximations, we projected the incidence of NMSC in Hong Kong to 2030.Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of NMSC increased from 6.7 per 100,000 population to 8.6 per 100,000 population in men and from 5.4 per 100,000 to 5.9 per 100,000 population in women, among the 19,568 patients in the study (9812 male patients [50.14%]). The annual net drift was 2.00% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50–2.50%) for men and 1.53% (95% CI: 0.95–2.11%) for women. Local drifts increased for both sexes above the 35–39-year age group. The period and cohort risk of developing NMSC tended to rise but slowed gradually in the most recent period and post-1975 birth cohort. From 2019 to 2030, it is projected that the number of newly diagnosed NMSC cases in Hong Kong will increase from 564 to 829 in men and from 517 to 863 in women. Population aging, population growth, and epidemiologic changes contributed to the increase in incident NMSCs, with population aging being the most significant contributor.Conclusion The slowing of the period and cohort effects suggests that the rising incidence of NMSC is partly attributable to increased awareness and diagnosis. The increasing prevalence of NMSC among the elderly and an aging population will significantly impact the clinical workload associated with NMSC for the foreseeable future.