Mapping and projections of obesity in the Brazilian adult population assisted in Primary Health Care: impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

Objective: To map the temporal evolution of overweight and obesity in Brazilian adults and estimate the prevalence of obesity for 2025 and 2030, evaluating the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Method: Data were collected on the nutritional status of adults from 2008 to 2021 from the Food and Nutrition Surveillance System (SISVAN), from which we calculated the prevalence and average annual rates of the variation of overweight and obesity. The projection of obesity, using linear regression, was analyzed in three scenarios: PP: with data from the pre-pandemic period (2008- 2019); outlier: with adjustment of the data trend (2008-2021), including the pandemic period, considering a return of scenario PP for projections from 2022; P: adjustment of pandemic data (2019-2021) to estimate the projection. Result: In the period 2008– 2021, we observed an average annual rate of overweight increase of 0.48 %/year. The prevalence of obesity more than doubled during this period, from 14.5% in 2008 to 32.9% in 2021 (i.e., an increase of 1.42). In the outlier scenario, the prevalence projections for obesity are 38.8% and 45.5% for 2015 and 2030, respectively. In the PP scenario (without the pandemic), the expected prevalence for the same period would be approximately 36.8% and 43.4%, respectively. Conclusion: Obesity and overweight follow an increasing trend. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the increase in the prevalence of obesity in Brazil and impacted its projections for the coming years.