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For many years, the Suez Canal (also known as the Suez Route) has been the main route connecting Europe and Asia. However, compared with the Suez Route, the Northeast Passage could save up to 41% of the journey. The ship carbon intensity index (CII) rating system of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) came into effect in 2023. This study took an existing bulk carrier on the Europe–Asia route as an example to calculate the attained CII values at different sailing speeds. It was found that, regardless of external factors, when the ship speed dropped from 14.4 knots (85% maximum continuous rating (MCR)) to 12.6 knots (55% MCR), the corresponding attained CII value decreased from 6.48 g/ton·nm to 5.19 g/ton·nm. Therefore, sailing speed was the key factor influencing the attained CII value, and it was independent of the shipping distance. In addition, when the ship’s sailing output power was between 85% MCR and 75% MCR, for every 5% decrease in MCR, its attained CII value would decrease by 0.13 g/ton·nm, and the fuel consumption amount would decrease by 1 ton/day. However, when the ship sailed at an output power of 75% MCR to 55% MCR, for every 5% decrease in MCR, the attained CII value would decrease even more, up to 0.26 g/ton·nm. In addition, the attained CII value would be reduced by up to 100% and fuel consumption amount would be reduced by up to 1.5 ton/day, resulting in a 50% fuel saving effect. Therefore, to obtain a better CII rating, the optimal ship speed should be set between 75% MCR and 55% MCR according to the wave and wind strengths. However, although slow-speed sailing is the most efficient factor, the number of sailing days would also be extended. Through the ratio created by dividing the distance of the Northeast Passage by the Suez Route, whether the Northeast Passage has the benefit of balancing shipping schedules could be judged. The outcome indicated that a ratio lower than 1 would result in a more balanced shipping schedule. Compared with 2019, the number of ships sailing through the Northeast Passage in 2021 increased significantly by 132%, and the average dead weight tonnage of the ships also rose from 18,846 tons to 23,736 tons. This study found that, with the implementation of the carbon reduction policy of the CII rating, ships sailing through the Northeast Passage could continue to develop toward the trend of large-sized vessels and steady increase in ship number.

This document discusses the importance of offshore renewable energy (ORE) in the transition to a low-carbon future. It highlights the abundance of ORE sources such as offshore wind, wave, tidal, and solar energy, and the potential for their extraction in offshore and coastal environments. The document includes nine scientific contributions that cover topics such as wind turbine performance, computational fluid dynamics for wind turbines, wave energy evaluation, hydrodynamic analysis of floating structures with photovoltaics, solar energy applications in the maritime sector, ship ventilation ducts, marine fuel oil production, unmanned surface vessels, and the carbon intensity index rating system for ships. These contributions provide insights into the challenges and developments in ORE extraction and aim to improve knowledge and performance in this field. [Extracted from the article]

The continuing decline of the summertime sea ice cover has reduced the sea ice path that must be traversed to Arctic destinations and through the Arctic between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, stimulating interest in trans–Arctic Ocean routes. Seasonal prediction of the sea ice cover along these routes could support the increasing summertime ship traffic taking advantage of recent low ice conditions. We introduce the minimum Arctic sea ice path (MIP) between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans as a shipping-relevant metric that is amenable to multidecadal hindcast evaluation. We show, using 1992–2017 retrospective predictions, that bias correction is necessary for the GFDL Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR) forecast system to improve upon damped persistence seasonal forecasts of summertime daily MIP between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans both east and west of Greenland, corresponding roughly to the Northeast and Northwest Passages. Without bias correction, only the Northwest Passage MIP forecasts have lower error than a damped persistence forecast. Using the forecast ensemble spread to estimate a lower bound on forecast error, we find large opportunities for forecast error reduction, especially at lead times of less than 2 months. Most of the potential improvement remains after linear removal of climatological and trend biases, suggesting that significant error reduction might come from improved initialization and simulation of subannual variability. Using a different passive microwave sea ice dataset for calculating error than was used for data assimilation increases the raw forecast errors but not the trend anomaly forecast errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study seeks to provide a basic approach to fulfill the spatial visualization of geopolitical environmental factors required for the navigation of vessels in the Arctic. Multi-dimensional geopolitical environmental factors of the Arctic Passage are analyzed and classified into geopolitics, geoeconomics, geo-military, geoculture, and laws and regulations related to geography. Their characteristics are extracted to form an attribute information table matching spatial layers. Based on the information category and basic characteristics, the spatial match method is applied and connected with the spatial layers to examine the spatial point, polyline, and polygon. According to the qualitative description, the study extracted the quantitative indicators for the following spatial–temporal pattern analysis. The standard deviational ellipse is used to analyze the spatial–temporal patterns and trends of the geopolitical environmental indicators of the Arctic Passage in the Arctic and Northeast Asia. The expansion and contraction of geoinformation coexist in the countries surrounding the Arctic Passage. The spatial–temporal changes indicate that the Arctic channel has a great economic impact on the Nordic countries and Northeast Asia, especially the coastal areas of China and Japan. The characteristic extraction and spatial match of the geopolitical environment provide integrated Arctic geoinformation inquiry and services for the diplomatic, administrative, and legal preparations required for Arctic navigation. Therefore, the geospatial analysis conducted provides scientific support and a basis for the geographical distribution and developing trends of visualization and spatial–temporal pattern in Arctic navigation. The results of this research will help decision-makers to make a comprehensive judgment on governance related to the sustainable development of the Arctic Passage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maritime transportation is a key means for Taiwan to transport the cargo in the global trade. Global warming has led to two new navigation channels for arctic passages, the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage. Research has increasingly addressed the unknown economic costs of these passages, and the increase of navigational activity in the Arctic Ocean has also resulted in CO2 emissions. Taiwan has one of the leading merchant fleets in the world; however, study on this aspect in Taiwan is not available. We use Port of Taipei, Taiwan as the starting place to compare the two arctic shipping routes and developed a model to determine the shipping costs and as well the CO2 emission. The results showed that a voyage from the Port of Taipei to the Port of Rotterdam through the Northeast Passage would be 2107 nautical miles shorter than voyage along the current sea route to Europe but 2% to 3% costlier; CO2 emissions would be 3% lower. Sailing to New York Harbor through the Northwest Passage would shorten voyages by 2459 nautical miles and reduce both costs and CO2 emissions by 7%. Therefore, if tolls were lowered or sailing speeds increased, sailing through the Arctic Passages could be a great opportunity for shipping industries and enable Taiwan to develop its shipping economy while protecting the marine environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The states face complementary with both conventional and non-conventional threats to global security and peace. If yesterday someone thought that conventional conflict in Europe is not possible, today it has to think differently. Contemporary threats are in symbiosis with global security trends that significantly affect resilience and direct the security of countries. Terrorism, hybrid warfare, cyber threats, climate changes, icecaps melt and new transport corridors open, such as the Northern Sea Route in the High North, outer space, Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDTs), scarcity of energy the security, threats posed by Russia, a competitive challenge of China as well as EU energy and economic challenges, upgraded by the EU geo-strategic partnership, the current threat of more frequent periodic pandemic presence, are some part of the trends, challenges and threats which countries in the Euro-Atlantic area are faced. The fast changing and rapidly evolving nature is a common feature of modern security trends, challenges and threats. Dealing with indicated security trends and threats requires fundamental changes in the mind set of perception of security by redefining the concepts of security and reorganizing the global security architecture in Euro-Atlantic Area. States often face an invisible adversary who is both their ally and their common enemy. Hybrid warfare and cyber threats are specifics warfare in alternative space, where "the battles" being fought in cyberspace, through disinformation, disintegration and the abuse of Internet through malicious operations on social networks. These clashes are more like battles of narratives in cyberspace than real - time battles on the battlefield. The multitude of information, i.e. disinformation that is placed, confused the public, and no one knows where it is and what the truth is. The challenge of such warfare affects the security of states expressed through the implications of their defence, multiplying the instability that leads to new vulnerabilities and crises. Artificial intelligence, EDTs presents at the same time are both, a new opportunities and risk, and together they are a key element for maintaining the military and technological edge of the states. The control of outer space is becoming increasingly important for the security as well as for the economy, energy and prosperity of states with far-reaching consequences that can have a destructive impact similar as conventional warfare. Consequently, each international organization and institution builds its own concept and strategy to dealing with such security trends, challenges and threats. The report of the reflection group "NATO 2030: United for a New Era" is a NATO's vision for dealing with such global security trends, challenges and threats in the next decade and beyond. This document provides guidance on how the Alliance will adapt to new global security trends, challenges and threats. The practical operationalization of the mechanisms for dealing with them is expected to be formalized with the New Strategic Concept of the Alliance, announced by the NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg to be adopted in mid-2022. The EU, for its part, has developed a Strategic Compass. Only the UN seems to be resistant on the change. However, the efficiency of new concepts and strategies for dealing with contemporary challenges remains to be tested in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global warming is causing a significant reduction in the extent and the thickness of Arctic sea ice, a narrative for future large-scale commercial shipping in the Arctic has started to evolve. However, while most efforts have aimed to assess the financial benefits along with potential savings in greenhouse gas emissions, few studies have explored risk patterns and safety issues associated with Arctic shipping and its current commercial alternatives in a geospatial manner. This study aims at addressing this gap in the literature, by assessing the risk factors associated with Arctic shipping, in particular, risks along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) connecting European and Asian ports. Its main component includes a global least-cost analysis, aiming to assess global and Arctic risk factors associated with commercial shipping, to derive the least risk paths from 10 major ports in Europe to 10 in Asia. To project the results into the future, and thus assess the future potential of the NSR as a viable and less risky alternative, a dataset on predicted sea ice thickness within 2010–2099, restricted the analysis based on the penetration capabilities of three selected vessel types. Ultimately, the study concludes that maritime transportation, bound for East-Asia, commencing from most northern European ports, could benefit from the NSR, not just in terms of distance savings, cost reduction and less CO2 production, but also as a safer alternative. Lastly, two recommendations drawn from our results aim to assist decision-makers in facilitating future Arctic transportation by addressing accessibility and safety issues. Highlights We explore risk patterns and safety issues associated with Arctic shipping and its current commercial alternatives in a geospatial manner. We assess the future potential of the northern sea route (NSR) as a viable and less risky alternative for European-Asian shipping. We provide a discussion on pros and cons of utilising the NSR in terms of distance savings resulting in cost reduction as well as less CO2 production, and as a safer alternative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice conditions and navigability along four typical routes of the Northeast Passage (NEP) are analysed using remote-sensing data from 1979 to 2019. The influence of air temperature (Tair) and surface wind on the sea ice concentration (SIC) and the navigability of routes is determined. It is found that the annually averaged SICs of the different routes have decreased over the past 41 years. The fastest rate of decrease occurred in the Kara Sea (∼−1% per year), while the slowest rates of decrease occurred in the Laptev/East Siberian Sea (∼−0.42% per year). The number of navigable days for the Kara Sea has become ∼1–2 months longer than the Laptev/East Siberian Sea route as a result. The effect of Tair on SIC, quantified by ΔSIC/ΔTair in the routes through the eastern Kara Sea and Laptev/East Siberian Sea in 2010s was ∼−0.04/°C, two to three times that seen during the 1980s. Air temperature is becoming a significant driving force of melting ice in these routes. Surface winds are also a crucial factor for the navigability of the Vilkitsky Strait and Long Strait, as they drive ice drift, and affect the navigability of the Kara Strait by introducing warm air.

As Arctic sea ice continues to melt, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is anticipated to become the third major China-Europe transportation corridor, alongside the Suez Canal Route (SCR) and China Railway Express (CRE). This study investigates the integration of the NSR into the Belt and Road multimodal transportation network and analyzes its dynamic competition with traditional corridors across heterogeneous regions and markets in China. To achieve this, we developed a novel hybrid multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework to evaluate the NSR's potential as an alternative China-Europe trade route. This framework introduces a new criteria utility function (CUF) and integrates the Bayesian best-worst method (BBWM) and measurement of alternatives and ranking according to compromise solution (MARCOS) method. This approach evaluates and prioritizes routes based on cost, time, reliability, safety, sustainability, and convenience, thereby detailing the NSR's market advantages and business prospects. The findings suggest that simply increasing the frequency of transportation services is insufficient to attract Chinese customers to the NSR. Instead, the route's competitiveness is primarily determined by transportation costs. In future scenarios, the NSR will offer additional route options for China-Europe containerized intermodal transport, potentially serving as a complementary corridor to the SCR and CRE under certain conditions. Coastal and sub-coastal regions north of Fujian Province are potential markets for the NSR, while inland regions far from seaports are better suited for connections via the CRE. Notably, time-insensitive containerized cargoes, such as industrial accessories, mechanical equipment, and metal crafts, exhibit higher potential demand for the NSR. In contrast, time-sensitive commodities like fashion apparel, electronics, and medical devices are more likely to be transported by cross-border railroads due to their urgency. Stakeholders, including government agencies, shipping companies, and exporters, can utilize these insights to optimize China-Europe transport organization and effectively commercialize the NSR. • Competition among NSR, SCR, and CRE is examined by integrating NSR into the Belt and Road multimodal transport network. • A novel three-phase hybrid MCDM framework is developed to aid in selecting the most suitable transport services and routes. • From a regional perspective, the NSR is considered a viable alternative for coastal and sub-coastal areas north of Fujian. • From a market perspective, the NSR is viewed as particularly attractive for time-insensitive containerized products. • Several insightful suggestions are provided for stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic ship traffic has increased significantly due to continuous sea ice loss and resource extraction. The shipping sector is an important contributor to atmospheric emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x) and sulphur dioxide (SO 2), and an increase in ship activity will lead to significant increases in these emissions. However, there is a lack of studies linking ship activities and the associated emissions with recent Arctic resource development activities. This study aims to assess the relationship between sector-specific developments (fishing, tourism, trade, oil, gas, mining, and "others") and ship traffic, and the associated emissions from 2013 to 2023 along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), using time series analysis and linear regression. In addition, the relationships were further used to predict future ship-associated emissions by 2030, utilizing a combination of regression models and Holt-Winters' trend and seasonal forecast. Results showed a 61% increase in distance travelled, 115% increase in NO x emissions, and 68% increase in SO 2 emissions from 2013 to 2023. A strong positive linear relationship between oil and gas production and the ship-associated emissions of NO x and SO 2 was found, with a coefficient of determination as high as 0.97. The oil sector emerged as the largest contributor to emissions from 2017 onward. Projections indicate that NO x and SO 2 emissions will be more than doubled, reaching 12,400 and 1200 tonnes, respectively, by 2030, of which the oil sector accounts for 45 and 61% of the total emissions. This highlights the need for further emissions reduction measures, especially with expanding Arctic oil projects, in order to mitigate the environmental impact of increased resource-driven shipping along the NSR. • Arctic ship traffic and the associated emissions have steadily increased since 2013. • Ship emissions has a strong positive correlation with oil and gas production. • Oil-related shipping is the main driver to increased emissions of NO x and SO 2. • NO x and SO 2 emissions may more than double by 2030. • Projections highlights the urgency for further emissions reduction measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change presents valuable opportunities for the development and utilization of Arctic passages. It is important to address maritime safety and environmental protection issues faced by ships navigating polar waters through appropriate regulation. The Polar Code is crucial in navigation safety guarantee and marine environmental protection in polar waters. Russia and Canada play a significant role in the negotiations of the Polar Code due to their respective actual control of the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage. How does Canada and Russia influence on the IMO's law-making related to the Arctic navigation? The study examines the proposals submitted by Russia and Canada during the negotiations of the Polar Code, explores the development paths of their proposals and adoption to clarify their functions vis-à-vis this issue. The study concludes that five factors affect the roles played by states in international law-making, namely the "5C" factors (chiefship, compatibility, combination, contribution, and circulation). This study aims to provide a reference for similar national practices in other states by summarizing the factors that influence decisions on Arctic navigation rules. • Proposals are a direct way for states to engage in the law-making guided by international organizations, which help states express their viewpoints clearly and effectively. • Russia and Canada submitted proposals during the negotiations on the navigation-related issues of the Polar Code, and some of these proposals effectively promote the incorporation of these states' intention into the Polar Code. • Adoption of national proposals in the international law-making guided by international organizations requires proposing states to demonstrate rule leadership (chiefship), to design content that is compatible with the international situation (compatibility), to form a reliable proposal-based alliance (combination), to contribute to solving public issues (contribution), and to circularly promote the development of the established law (circulation). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The grounding of a 400-meter long container vessel, called Ever Given, in the Suez Canal blocked the busiest shipping lane, which is responsible for 12% of seaborne trade, for 6 days. Some shipping companies had to divert their vessels and they had to take a much longer route around Africa to reach European ports. The concerned shipping industry started to look for alternative sea route to the Suez Canal with lesser risk of blockage, without a need to go around Africa. Such routes, which connect the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, exist in the Arctic and the warming of the global climate makes them more accessible over time but the assessment of their viability requires a multifaceted analysis based on available professional navigational publications, scientific papers, and knowledge of polar shipping realities. Several nautical aspects are taken into account with the purpose of choosing a polar route that is most suitable as an alternative to the Suez Canal. Three routes are under consideration. One of them is the Northern Sea Route in the eastern part of the Arctic Ocean, along the coast of the Russian Federation. The second route is the Northwest Passage through the western part of the Arctic, passing waters belonging to Greenland, Canada, and the United States. The third one passes near the North Pole, a prospective route that may become available for commercial shipping in the future due to Arctic ice shrinkage, and it is known as the Transpolar Route. Analysis of these routes unambiguously point to the Northern Sea Route as the only viable option. Most prospective alternatives to the Suez Canal are technically feasible with the new generation of cargo vessels and they are experiencing a growth in maritime traffic together with a steady development of associated infrastructure. The existing simplified analyses of the transit costs, assuming strait passage in polar waters without any course deviation and the additional fuel that is burnt to overcome increased friction during passage in ice, shows that under present conditions that the Suez Canal Route is still cheaper than any polar transit and, moreover, offers year-round availability. It cannot be ruled out that the upcoming warming of the Arctic climate, and a lowering of the transit tariffs by the Russian Federation may tip the balance in favor of the Northern Sea Route. Presented here is an analysis of the competitiveness of the Arctic Routes in comparison to the Suez Canal from the perspective of the mariner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Resilient route selection for oversized cargoes, one of the general bulk cargoes, has not been adequately optimized in terms of using the Arctic route. This study solves the problem of selecting the optimal shipping routes for oversized cargoes from Busan (South Korea) to Balkhash (Kazakhstan). Design/methodology/approach: The study used the consistent fuzzy preference relation (CFPR) method, which is used to solve multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) and uncertainty problems, to tackle the route selection. This method involves three procedures: first, the critical factors and alternative routes were obtained by the previous literature and an in-depth interview of experts of oversized cargo-handling with more than 20 years of working experience; second, the weightings for each critical factor were identified using the CFPR calculation process and third, alternative routes were evaluated using weighted critical factors. Findings: The Northern Sea Route (NSR) combined with the inland waterways of Russia and Kazakhstan was first suggested for bulk carriers that handle oversized cargoes. The NSR could be a suitable route from Busan to Cape Kamenny of the Russian transshipment seaport, where oversized cargoes will be transferred to the river barge at Cape Kamenny, covering 4,913 km from the latter to Balkhash of Kazakhstan via the Ob/Irtysh River. Practical implications: This study equips stakeholders in route selection for cargoes with strategies and methods to improve transportation efficiently and enhance shipping routes between Asia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). In addition to oversized cargoes, coal and timber from Russia can be transported to Asia using inland waterways and the NSR, which can also be used to transport plant equipment for petroleum refineries among Asian countries. Originality/value: This is the first study to evaluate the suitability of the Artic route for oversized cargoes from South Korea to Kazakhstan. It provides a comprehensive evaluation framework of multimodal shipping routes and offers references for decision-makers when dealing with similar problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides empirically grounded evidence for firms to evaluate co-location decision choices and help buyers and sellers to devise business strategies to enhance inter-firm competitive rivalry and bargaining power. It uses a theoretical framework to investigate the relationships between different innovation-oriented dynamic capabilities, dynamic resilience and firm performance among logistics service providers (LSPs) and in-house logistics departments of industrial companies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Global logistics and supply chains (SCs) have faced challenges arising from trade wars, environmental issues, climate change, natural disasters, increased fuel costs, and particularly the recent global pandemic. [Extracted from the article]

Arctic routes represent changes to the exsisting liner network for container shipping between Asia, Europe and North America, because they have significant potential for commercial navigation. It is necessary to analyse the changes in shipping networks under the influence of Arctic routes. This paper focuses on the analysis of the evolution of shipping networks that are affected by Arctic routes, based on building an improved complex growth network model. This model is verified by its applications to existing shipping networks. This model is applied to the shipping networks with Arctic routes, and the main findings obtained are as follows: (1) The network nodes gradually increase and the average degree of network nodes shows an upward trend. In addition, the closeness of internal links in the maritime network increase, the network tends to be in an orderly state, and the network scale is even more uneven. (2) The hub ports of the existing shipping network, which are located in East Asia, Northwest Europe and North America, show that the effects of the Arctic routes are more important. The states of some of the other ports are improved because of their superior geographical locations. (3) Then, the network in which the ports are indirectly connected to the Arctic routes is extracted. The extracted network has the largest number of ports in East Asia and Northwest Europe. In the network, from the perspective of the ports along the Arctic routes, the value of the Northeast Passage ports are generally higher than those of the Northwest Passage ports. The ports of Murmansk, Sabetta, and Reykjavik in the Northeast Passage have the highest values, and the port of Iqaluit is the Northwest Passage port with the largest value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the competitiveness of various autonomous ship categories for container shipping in the Arctic route. We propose a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework using four ship categories as alternatives and eight criteria for competitiveness evaluation. We analyse collected data using the Best–Worst Method (BWM), one of the recently developed MCDM methods. The findings reveal that operating expenses, navigation aspects, and environmental protection are the three most important criteria for deploying autonomous ships in the Arctic route. Among the three investigated autonomous ships alternatives, the semi-autonomous ship operated from a shore control centre (SCC) is prioritized for Arctic shipping in the foreseeable future, when benchmarked against the conventional ship. The SCC-controlled semi-autonomous ship alternative is competitive in the majority of the considered criteria including operating expenses, capital expenses, navigation, ship-shore and ship–ship communication, search and rescue, and environmental protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complex sea ice conditions in Arctic waters has different impacts on the legs of the Arctic passage, and ships of specific ice classes face different navigation risks. Therefore, the quantitative analysis of the navigation risks faced in different legs has important practical significance. Based on the POLARIS introduced by IMO, the sea ice condition data from 2011 to 2020 was used to quantify the navigation risk of the Arctic Northeast passage. The risk index outcome (RIO) of the Arctic Northeast Passage were calculated. The navigable windows of the route for ice class 1A ships sailing independently under different sea ice conditions in the last decade were determined, with a navigable period of 91 days under normal sea ice conditions, approximately 175 days under light sea ice conditions and only week 40 close to navigation under severe sea ice conditions. The three critical waters affecting the safety of ships were identified. Combined with the navigable windows and critical waters, recommendations on ship's navigation and manipulation and recommendations for stakeholders were given. The method and results provided reference and support for the assessment of the navigation risk of ships in the Northeast Passage and safety navigation and operations of ships, and satisfied the needs of relevant countries and enterprises to rationally arrange shipment dates and sailing plans based on different ice classes of ships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the distribution and behaviour of ocean vessels in the Arctic region and determine the impacts of their emissions, we examine vessel characteristics in conjunction with a series of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data between 2012 and 2016. These datasets, combined with a bottom-up model for estimating pollution emissions, enable us to analyse the level of pollution generated by vessels in the Arctic region. The results indicate that the movements of the vessels and their emissions increase in frequency and continue to do so unless clean energy or technologies are adopted. More than 80% of the emissions are found to be concentrated in the Norwegian and Barents Seas. Emissions from the Northern Sea Route are comparatively low and those from the Northwest Passage are similarly insignificant. Besides, an empirical analysis of the emissions in the Arctic region is carried out following the more restrictive International Maritime Organization (IMO)'s regulations on sulphur emissions that is implemented in 2020. This investigation supplements the literature analysing Arctic's pollution emission inventory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a result of the opening Arctic waters, Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP) can be used as a shortcut between Asian and European ports, which may bring considerable economic benefits. Due to the harsh environment and substantial costs, it is difficult to construct many fulcrum ports along the Russian Arctic coast, which provide support services for ships navigating the NEP. A multi-criteria decision model is hence constructed to select fulcrum ports among candidates to support Arctic shipping through the NEP. Based on the model, the evidential reasoning (ER) approach is used to aggregate quantitative data and qualitative expert judgments to generate distributed assessments for candidate ports, as well as modeling uncertainties such as incompleteness and ignorance in the assessment of candidate ports. Their suitability as fulcrum ports are prioritized according to the utilities. The results show that Pevek, Sabetta, and Murmansk are the ideal fulcrum ports for the eastern, central, and western section, respectively, of the Russian Arctic coast. The associated policy recommendations include prioritizing the improvement of selected fulcrum ports, attaching importance to promising candidate ports, updating outdated infrastructure, and implementing more related projects. A sensitivity analysis conducted in this study validates the feasibility and reasonability of the proposed model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has renewed the debate about shipping in the Arctic due to an expected reduction of ice in these sea lanes. Because of the Arctic slowly opening, allowing for more activity, navigational rights for ships have caught the attention of the world once again, including those of warships. Through analysing the navigational regime for warships in the Northwest and Northeast Passages, this article aims to introduce the different rules for navigation and the consequences for maritime operations in the Arctic, including the right to overflight. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea provides navigational rights for warships and overflight in peace time operations, but the matter of which navigation rules should apply in the passages is under debate. Based on an analysis of the Convention, case law, legal theory and customary law, the article aims to shed light on different interpretations of the legal regimes of navigation in the passages and which rules should apply to warships and overflight in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last decade, Russia has considerably ramped up its military presence in the Arctic. This is something that attracted much attention from Western countries, especially against the backdrop of deteriorated relations and general mistrust following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Current developments are to some extent familiar, as they echo the militarisation of the Arctic during the Cold War and the attendant US-Soviet tensions. Although comparisons with the Soviet Union's Arctic military posture lie close at hand, we need to analyse Russia's current military build-up in the Arctic with fresh eyes. Two of the most indicative developments were studied. Firstly, the formation of a single Arctic military command, with its implications for a reassessment of the Arctic strategic direction; secondly, the physical expansion of its Arctic military footprint, which includes both the construction of modern facilities and the increased activity of its armed forces there. In both these developments, the Northern Fleet is taking on a leading role, but the overall military posture relies on other military and civilian actors as well, and is closely related to security concerns of the developing latitudinal axis of the Northern Sea Route, rather than the Cold War longitudinal axis of a massive nuclear weapons exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice has been reminding us the significant impacts caused by global warming. However, the other side of the coin is that this opens a window to utilize the Arctic sea routes in the summer seasons, bringing remarkable economic benefits for ocean transportation between Asia and Europe. However, commercial vessels with low ice classes must tackle substantial environmental challenges in the Arctic sea routes, particularly those caused by variable sea ice, even in the melting seasons. Therefore, the science-based support for shipping safety in the Arctic sea routes is being given more prominence. Emerging satellite remote sensing technology plays a critical role in environmental monitoring in the Arctic. This paper reviews state-of-the-art satellite observations on monitoring sea ice and potential applications on supporting shipping activities in the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, we introduced a recently developed system based on satellite observations to support the safe transportation of Chinese cargo vessels in the Arctic northern sea route, demonstrating the efforts by both the science and business communities to promote the development of the polar silk road. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential of Arctic routes (ARs) has attracted global attention, and exploiting the Arctic has become an important strategy for many countries. However, there are still some challenges for ships sailing in Arctic ice zones, including harsh marine environments and the insufficient service capacity of sea ice information service systems. To better understand the route changes in the Arctic and extract real-time ship navigation routes, we developed an online interactive route planning system (RouteView) for ships sailing in the Arctic based on big Earth data. RouteView includes two main features: (1) an online calculation interface is provided for optimal routes along the Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP) 60 days into the future by utilizing reinforcement learning (RL) based on sea ice and meteorological data, and (2) an online ice-water classification is established based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and deep learning to help users extract the sea ice distribution in real time. This work can potentially enhance the safety of shipping navigation along the NEP and improve information extraction methods for ARs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graph I A church in Yakutsk, Sakha Republic, Russia. i Much has been said and written about the many ways that the Arctic is intertwined with the rest of the world. In modern scientific terms, Banks's observations may be speculative rather than conclusive, but the fact that he looked to the Arctic to explain phenomena closer to home is a fascinating recognition of what today are called teleconnections. With regard again to Russia, the French nobleman Astolphe de Custine traveled through Russia in 1839, writing in a letter that July: I have heard it said by many Russians, that their climate also is ameliorating!. [Extracted from the article]

This study examines how recent changes in Russia's legal regulations affected shipping via the Northern Sea Route. The paper discusses whether these regulations are helpful for making the NSR a popular international transport corridor or, on the contrary, may lead to its isolation and retaining its status of Russia's national seaway? This study also reviews Russian legal and practical measures to implement the International Maritime Organization's Polar Code. The author concludes that despite some legal inconsistencies, the lack of a proper infrastructure and residual environmental problems, the NSR will remain an important priority for the Russian future strategy in the Arctic region. The NSR is viewed by Moscow as an effective instrument to develop the Russian Arctic both domestically and internationally. However, Moscow still faces a dilemma: On the one hand, it wants to keep its control over the NSR and support Russian shipbuilding industry and shipping companies. On the other hand, the Kremlin is willing to open up this passage for international cooperation and integrate it to the global transportation system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The retreat of sea ice has been found to be very significant in the Arctic under global warming. It is projected to continue and will have great impacts on navigation. Perspectives on the changes in sea ice and navigability are crucial to the circulation pattern and future of the Arctic. In this investigation, the decadal changes in sea ice parameters were evaluated by the multi-model from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, and Arctic navigability was assessed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation accessibility model. The sea ice extent shows a high possibility of decreasing along SSP5-8.5 under current emissions and climate change. The decadal rate of decreasing sea ice extent will increase in March but decrease in September until 2060, when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared and the sea ice will reach an irreversible tipping point. Sea ice thickness is expected to decrease and transit in certain parts, declining by -0.22 m per decade after September 2060. Both the sea ice concentration and volume will thoroughly decline at decreasing decadal rates, with a greater decrease in volume in March than in September. Open water ships will be able to cross the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage between August and October during the period from 2045 to 2055, with a maximum navigable percentage in September. The time for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships will shift to October–December during the period from 2021 to 2030, with a maximum navigable percentage in October. In addition, the central passage will be open for PC6 ships between September and October during 2021–2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2008, the European Commission perceived the European Union (EU) in an excellent position to collaborate with the five Euro-Arctic states and its strategic partners Canada, Russia, and the USA to shape Arctic governance in the fast-changing environment. However, the Arctic coastal states rejected the EU's multilateral governance approach, while China has emerged as a significant factor in the Arctic. In 2018, China announced the Polar Silk Road to connect East Asia with Europe via Arctic shipping and other connectivity projects. In 2019, the EU started to perceive China as a systemic rival concerning the Belt and Road Initiative. What is the impact of China on the EU's Arctic policies in the Euro-Arctic environment? What are the prospects for collaboration between the EU and China on joint issues? This paper applies process tracing to analyse China's and the EU's Arctic socialization in the early twenty-first century at three critical junctures of Arctic politics. At these junctures, the paper introduces the Arctic situation and the emerging problems, development in agenda setting, the policy processes, and the outcomes of the EU's and China's Arctic approaches. It argues that China's rise as a maritime and Arctic power and its close relations with Russia along the Northern Sea Route shaped the EU's Arctic policies and their shift towards the Barents sub-Arctic region. Implications are more interaction among both there, as China's Polar Silk Road might also challenge the EU's regulatory approach in the Euro-Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The direct and indirect effects of global emissions of black carbon (BC) on the evolution of Arctic climate has been well documented. The significance of within-Arctic emissions of BC is less certain. In light of this, an ensemble of scenarios are developed that simulate the hypothetical diversion of 75% of current and projected shipping traffic from the Suez Canal to the Northern Sea Route (NSR). This experiment shows that BC from ships results in a small change in climate forcing that does not influence the Arctic-wide trajectory of change. However, the shift in forcing from the Suez route to the NSR not only influences regional evolution of sea ice cover, but also results in regional feedbacks that in some locations amplify (e.g. Greenland Sea) and in other locations damp (e.g. Labrador Sea) the sea ice retreat under anthropogenic climate change. The primary mechanism underlying these regional effects is a shift in circulation rather than direct thermodynamic forcing. The most significant impacts are distal from the emissions sources, which is likely to have policy implications as the expansion of industrial and transportation activities into the Arctic is considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]