Exploring the dynamic impact of the Northern Sea Route on China-Europe multimodal transportation competition in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative.

As Arctic sea ice continues to melt, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is anticipated to become the third major China-Europe transportation corridor, alongside the Suez Canal Route (SCR) and China Railway Express (CRE). This study investigates the integration of the NSR into the Belt and Road multimodal transportation network and analyzes its dynamic competition with traditional corridors across heterogeneous regions and markets in China. To achieve this, we developed a novel hybrid multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework to evaluate the NSR's potential as an alternative China-Europe trade route. This framework introduces a new criteria utility function (CUF) and integrates the Bayesian best-worst method (BBWM) and measurement of alternatives and ranking according to compromise solution (MARCOS) method. This approach evaluates and prioritizes routes based on cost, time, reliability, safety, sustainability, and convenience, thereby detailing the NSR's market advantages and business prospects. The findings suggest that simply increasing the frequency of transportation services is insufficient to attract Chinese customers to the NSR. Instead, the route's competitiveness is primarily determined by transportation costs. In future scenarios, the NSR will offer additional route options for China-Europe containerized intermodal transport, potentially serving as a complementary corridor to the SCR and CRE under certain conditions. Coastal and sub-coastal regions north of Fujian Province are potential markets for the NSR, while inland regions far from seaports are better suited for connections via the CRE. Notably, time-insensitive containerized cargoes, such as industrial accessories, mechanical equipment, and metal crafts, exhibit higher potential demand for the NSR. In contrast, time-sensitive commodities like fashion apparel, electronics, and medical devices are more likely to be transported by cross-border railroads due to their urgency. Stakeholders, including government agencies, shipping companies, and exporters, can utilize these insights to optimize China-Europe transport organization and effectively commercialize the NSR. • Competition among NSR, SCR, and CRE is examined by integrating NSR into the Belt and Road multimodal transport network. • A novel three-phase hybrid MCDM framework is developed to aid in selecting the most suitable transport services and routes. • From a regional perspective, the NSR is considered a viable alternative for coastal and sub-coastal areas north of Fujian. • From a market perspective, the NSR is viewed as particularly attractive for time-insensitive containerized products. • Several insightful suggestions are provided for stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]