101. 中美贸易摩擦双方木质林产品加征关税的经济效应.
- Author
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田明华, 余梦妍, 魏僮, 胡田琦, and 唐莹
- Subjects
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BELT & Road Initiative , *FURNITURE , *CARDBOARD , *WOOD products , *PRODUCT improvement ,CHINA-United States relations - Abstract
Background——Measuring the economic effect of tariff increases on wood products between China and the United States, comparing the gains and losses, and simulating China’s tariff plan for wood products in response to the trade friction are conducive to optimizing China’s anti-tariff structure of wood products and reducing the adverse impact of the US-China trade friction on China’s wood products trade. Methods——Based on the trade data of US-China wood products in the UN Comtrade database from 2012 to 2017,the model of Armington elasticity of substitution was constructed to estimate the Armington elasticity of substitution of US-China wood products in the other market, and the estimated substitution elasticity was introduced into the local equilibrium analysis tool SMART model. Based on the trade data of wood products from various countries in the UNCTAD TRAINS database, the economic effects of tariff increase on US-China wood products in the US-China trade friction were calculated by product categories. Results——The estimation results of the model of Armington elasticity of substitution show that the substitutability of Chinese wood products in the US market is higher than that of American wood products in the Chinese market. In the tariff increases on wood products imposed by China and the US, Chinese wood products are in a disadvantageous situation. China should adopt differentiated tariff countermeasures according to the Armington elasticity of substitution of American wood products in the Chinese market. The results of SMART model on trade creation effect and trade transfer effect confirm that China’s wood products are facing greater export losses in US-China trade friction, and show that the high import transfer rate of China’s wood products is an important reason for China’s export losses. The calculation results of tariff effect and welfare effect confirm that the US-China trade friction is a double-loss outcome for the two countries, but the welfare loss of the United States is much greater than that of China. With the gradual implementation of tariffs imposed by the United States, the trade effect of tariff increases has gradually emerged. The model calculation results show that China’s export of processed products such as wooden furniture, paper and board, wood products to the United States still faces a significant threat of export reduction. The results of the model show that China’s different tariff countermeasures for wood products have achieved remarkable results, but there are still improvements. Conclusions and Discussions——The Armington elasticity of substitution of wood products in the other market between China and the United States is very different, indicating that the default value of 1.5 is not used in the SMART model. The local equilibrium analysis tool SMART model is used to study the economic effect of US-China tariff increases on US-China trade in wood products, which can provide more and more accurate information than other methods. In order to reduce the adverse effects of US-China trade friction on China’s wood products trade, firstly, China should strengthen technological innovation and brand building, and reduce the substitutability of China’s wood products. Second, China can seize the major opportunities of Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP to find export substitute markets for China’s wood products. Third, China needs to optimize the tariff structure of wood products timely and improve the import transfer rate of wood products. Finally, China is expected to accelerate the implementation of the “dual circulation” strategy, effectively increase domestic timber supply, and actively develop the domestic wood products market, to achieve high-quality development of wood products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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