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Global climate change has placed the region at the centre of geopolitics, as melting Arctic sea ice transforms it from a predominantly scientific interest to a contest of national security claims, commercial interests and environmental concerns, with profound implications for both the international legal and political systems. The Arctic environment is an area of common concern requiring collective behaviour by all, including Russia and India.Aim. Examine environmental issues in the Arctic policies of Russia and India, and find common ground in Arctic cooperation on climate change.Tasks. Identify existing problems and propose recommendations to address them.Methods. To solve the problems set in the study, the author uses such methods as statistical analysis, method of document analysis, discourse analysis of speeches of political leaders of Russia and India. Results. The issues of the climate agenda of Russia and India are considered. Unlike Russia, the Indian side has problems in implementing its state policy on climate change. Sharing experience in effective financing of environmental programmes, disaster risk management and information exchange are areas of potential cooperation in the context of climate change. Despite the geopolitical changes taking place around the world, Russia-India cooperation has not been interrupted, but has remained at the same level and has great potential.Conclusions. Ensuring the environmental security of Russia and India is an integral part of the policies of the two states. As the data presented in this paper show, the states have similar interests in developing measures to prevent climate change deterioration in the Arctic region.

Aim. To study India’s Arctic policy by considering its conceptual, institutional and procedural components. Methods. Structural-analytical approach, document analysis, comparative analysis, generalization and synthesis.Results. The article examines the provisions of a strategically important document of India dedicated to the implementation of policy in the Arctic, government bodies competent to implement India’s Arctic policy, their main functions, and the directions of Delhi’s activities in the Arctic. The trends along which actions are actually taken are compared with the directions enshrined in the country’s strategic document on Arctic policy.Conclusions. The document “Arctic Policy” is only declarative, political in nature. The policy document establishing the action plan for the implementation of policy in the Arctic with deadlines has not yet been adopted. There are no standards for holding people accountable for improper implementation of activities. A specialized body responsible for implementing policy in India has not been created, despite its mention in India’s Arctic Policy. The scientific direction in the Arctic is key for India. It is also highlighted as a priority in the Arctic policy, which is a weak point of Indian Arctic policy. There are 5 more areas of Indian activity in the Arctic that are at the stage of formation or development. Norway is India’s main partner, close ties are developing with Russia. There are serious omissions in the country’s Arctic policy related to the lack of an icebreaker, non-participation in the Barents Euro-Arctic Council, and poor investment in Arctic projects. The practical significance of the scientific work lies in the ability to use its results to further build a dialogue with the Indian government and business community, and its conclusions can form the basis of future scientific research.

Abstract Background Assessing the historical dynamics of key food web components is crucial to understand how climate change impacts the structure of Arctic marine ecosystems. Most retrospective stable isotopic studies to date assessed potential ecosystem shifts in the Arctic using vertebrate top predators and filter-feeding invertebrates as proxies. However, due to long life histories and specific ecologies, ecosystem shifts are not always detectable when using these taxa. Moreover, there are currently no retrospective stable isotopic studies on various other ecological and taxonomic groups of Arctic biota. To test whether climate-driven shifts in marine ecosystems are reflected in the ecology of short-living mesopredators, ontogenetic changes in stable isotope signatures in chitinous hard body structures were analysed in two abundant squids (Gonatus fabricii and Todarodes sagittatus) from the low latitude Arctic and adjacent waters, collected between 1844 and 2023. Results We detected a temporal increase in diet and habitat-use generalism (= opportunistic choice rather than specialization), trophic position and niche width in G. fabricii from the low latitude Arctic waters. These shifts in trophic ecology matched with the Atlantification of the Arctic ecosystems, which includes increased generalization of food webs and higher primary production, and the influx of boreal species from the North Atlantic as a result of climate change. The Atlantification is especially marked since the late 1990s/early 2000s. The temporal patterns we found in G. fabricii’s trophic ecology were largely unreported in previous Arctic retrospective isotopic ecology studies. Accordingly, T. sagittatus that occur nowadays in the high latitude North Atlantic have a more generalist diet than in the XIXth century. Conclusions Our results suggest that abundant opportunistic mesopredators with short life cycles (such as squids) are good candidates for retrospective ecology studies in the marine ecosystems, and to identify ecosystem shifts driven by climate change. Enhanced generalization of Arctic food webs is reflected in increased diet generalism and niche width in squids, while increased abundance of boreal piscivorous fishes is reflected in squids’ increased trophic position. These findings support opportunism and adaptability in squids, which renders them as potential winners of short-term shifts in Arctic ecosystems.

Abstract Sea-ice microalgae are a key source of energy and nutrient supply to polar marine food webs, particularly during spring, prior to open-water phytoplankton blooms. The nutritional quality of microalgae as a food source depends on their biomolecular (lipid:protein:carbohydrate) composition. In this study, we used synchrotron-based Fourier transform infra-red microspectroscopy (s-FTIR) to measure the biomolecular content of a dominant sea-ice taxa, Nitzschia frigida, from natural land-fast ice communities throughout the Arctic spring season. Repeated sampling over six weeks from an inner (relatively stable) and an outer (relatively dynamic) fjord site revealed high intra-specific variability in biomolecular content, elucidating the plasticity of N. frigida to adjust to the dynamic sea ice and water conditions. Environmental triggers indicating the end of productivity in the ice and onset of ice melt, including nitrogen limitation and increased water temperature, drove an increase in lipid and fatty acids stores, and a decline in protein and carbohydrate content. In the context of climate change and the predicted Atlantification of the Arctic, dynamic mixing and abrupt warmer water advection could truncate these important end-of-season environmental shifts, causing the algae to be released from the ice prior to adequate lipid storage, influencing carbon transfer through the polar marine system.

Abstract Climate change is known to affect the distribution and composition of species, but concomitant alterations to functionally important aspects of behaviour and species-environment relations are poorly constrained. Here, we examine the ecosystem ramifications of changes in sediment-dwelling invertebrate bioturbation behaviour—a key process mediating nutrient cycling—associated with near-future environmental conditions (+ 1.5 °C, 550 ppm [pCO2]) for species from polar regions experiencing rapid rates of climate change. We find that responses to warming and acidification vary between species and lead to a reduction in intra-specific variability in behavioural trait expression that adjusts the magnitude and direction of nutrient concentrations. Our analyses also indicate that species behaviour is not predetermined, but can be dependent on local variations in environmental history that set population capacities for phenotypic plasticity. We provide evidence that certain, but subtle, aspects of inter- and intra-specific variation in behavioural trait expression, rather than the presence or proportional representation of species per se, is an important and under-appreciated determinant of benthic biogeochemical responses to climate change. Such changes in species behaviour may act as an early warning for impending ecological transitions associated with progressive climate forcing.

The article considers the components of the innovation potential of Russian regions that are fully or partially included in the Arctic zone. The purpose of the article is to analyze and evaluate the state and dynamics of innovative development of the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. The methodology for calculating the composite index of innovative development is proposed. The calculations are made on the basis of the database formed by the authors, which consists of four blocks; the main conclusions on the blocks are formed. According to the composite index for the period 20152021, the leading positions are occupied by the Krasnoyarsk Krai, the Arkhangelsk Oblast and the Komi Republic, and the Republics of Karelia, Sakha (Yakutia) and Komi in terms of the index growth rate. The study of the state, dynamics and level of innovation development in the regions of the AZRF shows that some components of innovation potential are unevenly developed in the regions that are fully or partially included in the AZRF. At the same time, the regions differ in the dynamics of innovative development. Thus, the worst indicators of innovative development in accordance with the proposed methodology are observed in the Arkhangelsk Oblast, Chukotka and Nenets Autonomous okrugs. The high correlation between the composite index of innovative development and indicators of socio-economic development of the regions revealed by the authors characterizes the positive impact of innovation activity on the socio-economic development of the AZRF subjects. In this regard, the key recommendations are the following: improvement of legislative support for the formation of eco-industrial, tourist zones, innovation sites and cluster formations in the Arctic territory within the framework of testing new formats of economic intensification of the Russian Arctic regions; formation of a macro-regional register of suppliers of innovative products for the projects of residents of the AZRF with the distribution of preferential measures of a special economic and administrative regime. The prospects of the research are related to the study of critical vulnerabilities in the production and technological processes of the sectors of specialization of the Arctic regions in import substitution.

The problems of mining waste management at industrial enterprises and increasing the economy of production are among the most urgent ones, especially for the Arctic ecosystems, characterized by high sensitivity to external factors and the complexity of recovery. The research was conducted on the example of large industrial corporations directly operating in the Arctic, including PJSC PhosAgro, PJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel, Severstal Resource division of PJSC Severstal and PJSC NOVATEK. The key indicators related to waste management for 20182022 were analyzed. The trend of increasing volumes of mining waste in the Arctic was revealed, while the level of its utilization remained practically unchanged. It is proposed to intensify scientific research in the field of rational use of mining waste and to develop technologies for their processing, taking into account the impact on the Arctic ecosystems. It is suggested to create research and production centers for each industrial enterprise using the experience of the balanced “triple helix” model. It is recommended to actively participate in the Interdepartmental Scientific Council of the Russian Academy of Sciences on the development of the mineral resource base and its rational use, created in 2023, to develop the scientific foundations for the extraction and processing of minerals and accelerate import substitution.

The review summarizes the results of the Russian-Chinese expert seminar “Development of Science Diplomacy in the Arctic under the Global Challenges”, which was organized in December 2023 in Arkhangelsk, Russia. The aim of the seminar is described: accumulation of intellectual resources of universities and scientific institutes of Russia and China. The need to unite the scientific potential of the two countries is determined by the current geopolitical context, in which the development of relevant functional solutions to international humanitarian issues becomes extremely important. The seminar was organized by the Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov together with the project partners — Beijing Institute of Technology (PRC) and the Association “National Arctic Scientific and Educational Consortium” within the framework of the project of the Alexander Gorchakov Public Diplomacy Fund. The event resulted in a final document (recommendations) on further development of Russian-Chinese cooperation in the Arctic.

The article summarizes the general results of the 26th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF-2023), which took place in St. Petersburg from 14 to 17 June 2023. The author, as a participant of the forum, attended all 15 events of the business program “The Arctic: Territory of Dialogue”, organized by the Ministry for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic. The article focuses on the problems of international cooperation, including with Asian countries, and the development of the Northern Sea Route.

The article summarizes the results of the 26th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF-2023), which took place in St. Petersburg from June 14 to 17, 2022. V. P. Zhuravel, Head of the Centre for Arctic Studies of the Institute of Europe RAS, is a permanent member of the Forum. In 2023, he attended the meetings of all 15 events of the “Arctic: Territory of Dialogue” program. The article deals with issues that were widely discussed at SPIEF-2023, related to the prospects and opportunities for international cooperation, social, economic and investment development of the Arctic regions, Arctic biodiversity, development of specially protected natural areas, northern cities, human resources, scientific and educa-tional potential of the Arctic, branding of the northern regions, digitalization of the northern territories. All these topics are widely covered by the CAS IE RAS scientific group on a regular basis. The author also analyses the development of the tourism, culture, and film industries in the Arctic with a focus on the promotion of Arctic topics in the media. Speakers of the thematic sections emphasized the increasing role of the Arctic in the social and economic development of the Russian Federation, noted the negative consequences of limiting the activities of the Arctic Council. The forum was held under the slogan “Sovereign development is the basis of a just world. Let's join forces for the sake of future generations”.

Adhering to the problem-thematic method of presenting the material when studying intra-system changes occurring in the Arctic subsystem of international relations atthe presenttime,the authorfocused on specific aspects: Washington’smilitary strategy, nature and natural resources, environmental, socio-economic problems, development of mineral deposits in complex natural conditions, agricultural problems, medical-biological and sanitary-hygienic areas.

This study explores the geopolitical and geostrategic significance of the GIUK (Greenland, Iceland, United Kingdom) Gap, a region of the North Atlantic Ocean between those respective islands, part of the broader Arctic realm known as the High North. It begins with a short overview of the historical development of the GIUK Gap's geopolitical and geostrategic significance, followed by an analysis of the region's current geopolitical and geostrategic dynamics. For the analysis, Walt’s balance of threat was employed as a neorealistic theoretical framework, with four specific variables chosen. This theory assumes that states try to balance potential threats. The study highlights the growing importance of the GIUK Gap for both NATO and the Russian Federation, whose interests have increasingly clashed in recent years. The paper argues that the deteriorating relations between NATO and Russia following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 have causally contributed to the growing importance of the GIUK Gap.

This article examines the challenges in shaping and developing digital competencies among the population during the transition to a digital economy, using the dominant employer in an Arctic monotown as a case study. The impact of digital technologies on the socio-economic aspects of territorial development has not been thoroughly studied, and the development of digital competencies in the population of monotowns remains underexplored and requires further research. The authors highlight the importance of addressing the development of digital competencies among employees and the digital culture of dominant employers, considering regional factors crucial for formulating development strategies for both individual companies and territories (monotowns). The goal of this study is to assess the readiness of executives, managers, and specialists at the dominant company in an Arctic monotown to implement digital processes. The key objectives are to identify and classify the preferences of these executives, managers, and specialists regarding the current level of business digitalization. Our review of studies on the topic confirmed the variation in the development of regional digital infrastructure, influenced by regional development characteristics, the specific labor resources in monotowns, and the impact of dominant employers on digital competency development. To conduct the study, a questionnaire was developed to identify the preferences of senior and middle managers at the company. Electronic document management was chosen as the focus area, as digitalization often begins with this process, leading to varied assessments by employees, including instances of opportunism. Our analysis of the responses revealed a moderate relationship between work experience and preference for electronic document management, as well as a correlation between work experience and the willingness to improve specialized competencies. There was a high overall recognition of the need for continuous development and training. The results identified key areas for digital competency development among the company’s staff.

This study focuses on the development of coal deposits in the western part of the Russian Arctic. Historically, the Arctic economy has relied on its mineral resources. Advancements in science and technology related to Arctic resource development have facilitated production in previously inaccessible and remote territories of the Russian Arctic, including areas on the Arctic shelf. Much of this progress can be attributed to the proactive strategic policies of the government and collaboration with Western partners. However, the current geopolitical landscape has introduced challenges to the implementation of many Arctic projects. New economic trends, including shifts in market orientation and technical obstacles, necessitate the adaptation of Arctic resource projects to the prevailing conditions. Coal projects, especially those aimed at export, are particularly susceptible to these challenges, as highlighted in this study. Therefore, the goal of the study was to identify the key processes associated with the implementation of new coal projects at the present stage. Geographically, the study encompasses the western part of the Russian Arctic, focusing on coal projects potentially interconnected with the development of the Northern Sea Route and its infrastructure. The paper offers an overview of the status of coal deposits in this Arctic region, examining the interplay between regulatory frameworks governing Arctic coal projects, and the consequences and risks of developing the new Syradasai deposit, located in the Arctic part of the Krasnoyarsk region.

This article offers an overview of commemorative and bullion coins dedicated to the North, grouping thematic coins from the past 30 years. It analyzes various aspects, including historical, economic, and investment perspectives. The authors review noteworthy commemorative coins made of precious metals by the Bank of Russia. These coins honor the cultural heritage, landmarks, notable figures of Northern exploration, and the region’s flora and fauna. Specifically, coins such as “Exploration of the Russian Arctic,” “International Polar Year,” and “Let’s Save Our World” are examined. The article evaluates the role of monetary policy in the Russian economy, particularly its anti-inflationary objective. A brief historical overview is provided regarding the first Soviet banknotes featuring Northern views and their circulation. In addition to Russian practices, the article showcases international experiences in issuing commemorative coins dedicated to exploring the North. The relevance of this study lies in the Bank of Russia’s emission activities regarding commemorative coins made of precious and base metals, as well as investment coins made of precious metals, both domestically and internationally. The study’s findings set the stage for further exploration of new thematic coins, including an assessment of numismatic and investment demand prospects.

In the paper, we present a gradual transition from domination of men to equal treatment for men and women during the several decades of Polish expeditions to scientific stations in the Arctic and the Antarctic. This research has been based on the data available in the archives and at the database created within the project Female polar explorers (Polarniczki in Polish), which contains information about the number of female participants of expeditions to Polish research stations. Women participated in the seasonal expeditions almost from the very beginning when Polish research stations were established in 1970s and 1980s, but a significant increase of female participants is visible especially at year-round stations in the second decade of the 21st century. In 1984, the first Polish female scientist overwintered in the Antarctic and in 1996 in the Arctic. In 1986, the first woman became a leader of a summer scientific expedition to Spitsbergen, and in 1991 a first woman became the leader of a year-long expedition to Arctowski Station. In the presented database, there are 825 records, that correspond to 417 surnames of female participants in Polish polar expeditions, 145 participated in more than one expedition. Women who were working at Polish polar research stations represented a variety of occupations, but most of them were scientists or combined science and station service. The collected data clearly show that the days when the presence of women at polar stations was unwelcome are a thing of the past.

Abstract This paper examines the literature on the Sustainability in the Arctic region, using a bibliometric analysis of 213 English-language articles published between 1980 and 2022 exploiting Bibliometrix, an R package. To find relevant literature using the Web of Science (WOS) database, we searched for documents using mesh terms based on the query of two terms, “Arctic & Sustainability”. We used the Boolean operator “AND” to combine the two terms and the Boolean operator “OR” to include synonyms of the terms. The articles retrieved were authored by 724 researchers, published in 98 journals, representing 132 countries, and growing at 5.08% annually. The findings reveal that a substantial portion of the Arctic sustainability literature placed significant emphasis on the examination of climate change, adaptation, and vulnerabilities affecting local communities. Furthermore, the more recent publications in this field concentrate predominantly on exploring perceptions and governance.

We assessed the potential for plastic ingestion in polar bears (Ursus maritimus (Phipps (1774))) using fecal analysis. Two method studies ensured our protocols could effectively recover and identify plastics in feces. First, microplastics (film, foam, or fragments) were intentionally introduced into a model organic matrix. Recovery rates (mean ± standard deviation) averaged 95.8 ± 14.7% (n = 18) and were significantly affected by microplastic morphology but not digestion status. Second, microplastic fragments of polypropylene, polyethylene terephthalate, and polystyrene were intentionally introduced to polar bear feces. Recovery rates averaged 79.3 ± 21.6% (n = 8) and Raman microscopy successfully identified all three polymers in 87.5% of samples. The main study then investigated the presence of microplastics in hunter-collected polar bear feces in the Canadian Arctic. Feces from the colons of hunted bears (n = 15) and field scat (n = 15) were collected through collaboration with Inuit communities. Polypropylene, polyethylene, and/or polyethylene terephthalate were detected in the feces of eight bears. Concentrations of microplastics in feces were, on average, less than 1 particle/g dry weight feces and at or near detection limits. Overall, this work suggests microplastic ingestion by Canadian polar bears may be low and demonstrates the utility of fecal sampling for community-based monitoring programs.

The roles of Indigenous youth in environmental research remain largely unexplored with little practical guidance for achieving meaningful engagement in environmental research. This paper aims to characterize the varying types of Inuit youth engagement in environmental research conducted in Inuit Nunangat. Findings were derived from a community-engaged participatory research approach in Mittimatalik (Pond Inlet, Nunavut). Our typology of Inuit youth engagement in environmental research suggests three types of engagements: “participate”, “conduct”, and “control”. Results highlight that Inuit youth who are interested in undertaking their own environmental research projects expect to enhance their knowledge of natural and life sciences more than those who may seek short-term supportive research roles. Strategies employed by researchers seeking to enhance youth research capacity may also vary based on youth wants and expectations. Our findings suggest that there is no one-size-fits all solution. None of the engagement types identified were necessarily and inherently considered better than the others by project contributors, unlike what has been proposed in other, hierarchical, typologies. Our proposed typology contributes to a better understanding of the varying roles that Inuit youth can play in environmental research, as well as inform potential frameworks for enhancing Inuit youth engagement and leadership in research.

Arctic community-based monitoring (CBM) programs have proliferated in recent decades. While the desire to influence decision-making is frequently listed as a motivation for CBM, there is a dearth of literature examining whether and how this goal is achieved in the Arctic. We draw on a systematic scoping literature review to examine the current state of the literature on Arctic CBM and environmental decision-making. Relevant articles (n = 27) were identified through inclusion/exclusion criteria (i.e., English language, peer reviewed, published between 1991 and 2021, and based on primary research) and analyzed using a data extraction questionnaire. We find that there is a growing focus on the relationship between Arctic CBM and decision-making in a range of decision contexts, most notably including co-management institutions. We note that less attention was paid to the potential effects of the often unequal, settler-colonial politics within the broader environmental governance system on the relationship between CBM and decision-making. Indigenous peoples and Indigenous Knowledge systems play a significant role within the included references, but less than half of the included references incorporated Indigenous governance concepts to a major extent. Based on our findings, we recommend future studies engage critical analysis of the influence of the governance and politics in the Arctic (1) on environmental decision-making; (2) the politics of knowledge; and (3) the use of digital technologies in the collection, storage, and mobilization of CBM data.

The MET Norway Ice Service (NIS) celebrated its fiftieth year as a formal operational sea ice information provider in 2020. Prior to the 1970's, support to navigation had started off with ad-hoc observations from coastal stations on Svalbard in the 1930's, before developing as a research programme in the 1960's. Activity in the region has steadily increased, and now the NIS also supports a large number of research, tourist, and resource exploration vessels, in addition to the ice chart archive being a resource for climate change research. The Ice Service has always been at the forefront in the use of satellite Earth Observation technologies, beginning with the routine use of optical thermal infrared imagery from NASA TIROS and becoming a large user of Canadian RADARSAT-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), and then European Copernicus Sentinel-1, in the 2000's and 2010's. Initially ice charts were a weekly compilation of ice information using cloud-free satellite coverage, aerial reconnaissance, and in situ observations, drawn on paper at the offices of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) in Oslo. From 1997 production moved to the Tromsø office using computer-based Geographical Information System (GIS) software and the NIS developed the ice charting system Bifrost. This allowed the frequency of production to be increased to every weekday, with a greater focus on detailed sea ice concentrations along the ice edge and coastal zones in Eastern Greenland and in the Svalbard fjords. From 2010, the NIS has also provided a weekly austral summer ice chart for the Weddell Sea and Antarctic Peninsula. To further develop its capabilities, NIS engages in a number of national and international research projects and led the EU Horizon 2020 project, Key Environmental monitoring for Polar Latitudes and European Readiness (KEPLER). This paper summarises the overall mandate and history of the NIS, and its current activities including the current state of routine production of operational ice charts at the NIS for maritime safety in both the Arctic and Antarctic, and future development plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beluga whales play a critical role in the subsistence economies and cultural heritage of Indigenous communities across the Arctic, yet the effects of Indigenous hunting on beluga whales remain unknown. Here, we integrate paleogenomics, genetic simulations, and stable δ13C and δ15N isotope analysis to investigate 700 y of beluga subsistence hunting in the Mackenzie Delta area of northwestern Canada. Genetic identification of the zooarchaeological remains, which is based on radiocarbon dating, span three time periods (1290 to 1440 CE; 1450 to 1650 CE; 1800 to 1870 CE), indicates shifts across time in the sex ratio of the harvested belugas. The equal number of females and males harvested in 1450 to 1650 CE versus more males harvested in the two other time periods may reflect changes in hunting practices or temporal shifts in beluga availability. We find temporal shifts and sex-based differences in δ13C of the harvested belugas across time, suggesting historical adaptability in the foraging ecology of the whales. We uncovered distinct mitochondrial diversity unique to the Mackenzie Delta belugas, but found no changes in nuclear genomic diversity nor any substructuring across time. Our findings indicate the genomic stability and continuity of the Mackenzie Delta beluga population across the 700 y surveyed, indicating the impact of Inuvialuit subsistence harvests on the genetic diversity of contemporary beluga individuals has been negligible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic and boreal regions are experiencing a rapid increase in temperature, resulting in a changing cryosphere, increasing human activity, and potentially increasing high-latitude methane emissions. Satellite observations from Sentinel-5P TROPOMI provide an unprecedented coverage of a column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of methane (XCH4) in the Arctic, compared to previous missions or in situ measurements. The purpose of this study is to support and enhance the data used for high-latitude research through presenting a systematic evaluation of TROPOMI methane products derived from two different processing algorithms: the operational product (OPER) and the scientific product (WFMD), including the comparison of recent version changes of the products (OPER, OPER rpro, WFMD v1.2, and WFMD v1.8). One finding is that OPER rpro yields lower XCH4 than WFMD v1.8, the difference increasing towards the highest latitudes. TROPOMI product differences were evaluated with respect to ground-based high-latitude references, including four Fourier Transform Spectrometer in the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and five EM27/SUN instruments in the Collaborative Carbon Column Observing Network (COCCON). The mean TROPOMI–TCCON GGG2020 daily median XCH4 difference was site-dependent and varied for OPER rpro from −0.47 ppb to 22.4 ppb, and for WFMD v1.8 from 1.2 ppb to 19.4 ppb with standard deviations between 13.0 and 20.4 ppb and 12.5–15.0 ppb, respectively. The TROPOMI–COCCON daily median XCH4 difference varied from −26.5 ppb to 5.6 ppb for OPER rpro, with a standard deviation of 14.0–28.7 ppb, and from −5.0 ppb to 17.2 ppb for WFMD v1.8, with a standard deviation of 11.5–13.0 ppb. Although the accuracy and precision of both TROPOMI products are, on average, good compared to the TCCON and COCCON, a persistent seasonal bias in TROPOMI XCH4 (high values in spring; low values in autumn) is found for OPER rpro and is reflected in the higher standard deviation values. A systematic decrease of about 7 ppb was found between TCCON GGG2014 and GGG2020 product update highlighting the importance of also ensuring the reliability of ground-based retrievals. Comparisons to atmospheric profile measurements with AirCore carried out in Sodankylä, Northern Finland, resulted in XCH4 differences comparable to or smaller than those from ground-based remote sensing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the mechanisms responsible for the origin, evolution, and failure of pingos with explosive gas emissions and the formation of craters in the Arctic permafrost requires comprehensive studies in the context of fluid dynamic processes. Properly choosing modeling methods for the joint interpretation of geophysical results and analytical data on core samples from suitable sites are prerequisites for predicting pending pingo failure hazards. We suggest an optimal theoretically grounded workflow for such studies, in a site where pingo collapse induced gas blowout and crater formation in the Yamal Peninsula. The site was chosen with reference to the classification of periglacial landforms and their relation to the local deformation pattern, according to deciphered satellite images and reconnaissance geophysical surveys. The deciphered satellite images and combined geophysical data from the site reveal a pattern of periglacial landforms matching the structural framework with uplifted stable permafrost blocks (polygons) bounded by eroded fractured zones (lineaments). Greater percentages of landforms associated with permafrost degradation fall within the lineaments. Resistivity anomalies beneath pingo-like mounds presumably trace deeply rooted fluid conduits. This distribution can be explained in terms of fluid dynamics. N–E and W–E faults, and especially their junctions with N–W structures, are potentially the most widely open conduits for gas and water which migrate into shallow sediments in the modern stress field of N–S (or rather NEN) extension and cause a warming effect on permafrost. The results obtained with a new workflow and joint interpretation of remote sensing, geophysical, and analytical data from the site of explosive gas emission in the Yamal Peninsula confirm the advantages of the suggested approach and its applicability for future integrated fluid dynamics research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar lows (PLs) are intense mesoscale cyclones that form over polar oceans during colder months. Characterized by high wind speeds and heavy precipitation, they profoundly impact coastal communities, shipping, and offshore activities. Amid the substantial environmental changes in polar regions due to global warming, PLs are expected to undergo noteworthy transformations. In this study, we investigate the response of PL development in the Barents Sea to climate warming based on two representative PLs. Sensitivity experiments were conducted including the PLs in the present climate and the PLs in a pseudo–global warming scenario projected by the late twenty-first century for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP 3-7.0 scenarios from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In both warming climate scenarios, there is an anticipated decrease in PL intensity, in terms of the maximum surface wind speed and minimum sea level pressure. Despite the foreseen increase in latent heat release in the future climate, contributing to the enhancement of PL intensity, other primary factors such as decreased baroclinic instability, heightened atmospheric static stability, and reduced overall surface heat fluxes play pivotal roles in the overall decrease in PL intensity in the Barents Sea under warming conditions. The augmentation of surface latent heat flux, however, results in increased precipitation associated with PLs by enhancing the latent heat release. Furthermore, the regional steering flow shifts in the warming climate can influence the trajectory of PLs during their development. Significance Statement: Global warming is anticipated to impact cyclone systems worldwide. Polar lows (PLs), intense mesocyclones in polar regions with potential socioeconomic and human life implications, pose uncertainties regarding intensity changes in a warming climate. In this study, we aimed to better understand how PLs over the Barents Sea will respond to the environmental changes in future climate conditions [Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP 3-7.0] by the end of the twenty-first century. Our results find that the intensity of PLs is expected to decrease in the future while there is an expected increase in precipitation associated with PLs in the warming climate. These findings aim to contribute valuable insights for disaster management strategies in the face of evolving climate scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exhibit large biases in Arctic sea ice climatology that seem related to biases in seasonal atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Using historical runs of 34 CMIP6 models from 1979 to 2014, we investigate the links between the climatological sea ice concentration (SIC) biases in September and atmospheric and oceanic model climatologies. The main intermodel spread of September SIC is well described by two leading EOFs, which together explain ∼65% of its variance. The first EOF represents an underestimation or overestimation of SIC in the whole Arctic, while the second EOF describes opposite SIC biases in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. Regression analysis indicates that the two SIC modes are closely related to departures from the multimodel mean of Arctic surface heat fluxes during summer, primarily shortwave and longwave radiation, with incoming Atlantic Water playing a role in the Atlantic sector. Local and global links with summer cloud cover, low-level humidity, upper or lower troposphere temperature/circulation, and oceanic variables are also found. As illustrated for three climate models, the local relationships with the SIC biases are mostly similar in the Arctic across the models but show varying degrees of Atlantic inflow influence. On a global scale, a strong influence of the summer atmospheric circulation on September SIC is suggested for one of the three models, while the atmospheric influence is primarily via thermodynamics in the other two. Clear links to the North Atlantic oceanic circulation are seen in one of the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice formation remains one of the most poorly represented microphysical processes in climate models. While primary ice production (PIP) parameterizations are known to have a large influence on the modeled cloud properties, the representation of secondary ice production (SIP) is incomplete and its corresponding impact is therefore largely unquantified. Furthermore, ice aggregation is another important process for the total cloud ice budget, which also remains largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine the impact of PIP, SIP, and ice aggregation on Arctic clouds, using the Norwegian Earth System Model, version 2 (NorESM2). Simulations with both prognostic and diagnostic PIP show that heterogeneous freezing alone cannot reproduce the observed cloud ice content. The implementation of missing SIP mechanisms (collisional breakup, drop shattering, and sublimation breakup) in NorESM2 improves the modeled ice properties, while improvements in liquid content occur only in simulations with prognostic PIP. However, results are sensitive to the description of collisional breakup. This mechanism, which dominates SIP in the examined conditions, is very sensitive to the treatment of the sublimation correction factor, a poorly constrained parameter that is included in the utilized parameterization. Finally, variations in ice aggregation treatment can also significantly impact cloud properties, mainly through their impact on collisional breakup efficiency. Overall, enhancement in ice production through the addition of SIP mechanisms and the reduction in ice aggregation (in line with radar observations of shallow Arctic clouds) result in enhanced cloud cover and decreased TOA radiation biases, compared to satellite measurements, especially during the cold months. Significance Statement: Arctic clouds remain a large source of uncertainty in projections of the future climate due to the poor representation of the microphysical processes that govern their life cycle. Ice formation is among the least understood processes. While it is widely recognized that better constraints on primary ice production (PIP) are needed to improve existing parameterizations, we show that secondary ice production (SIP) and ice aggregation can have also a significant impact on ice number concentrations. Constraining ice formation through the addition of missing SIP mechanisms and reducing ice aggregation can improve the representation of the cloud macrophysical properties and enhance total cloud cover in the Arctic region, which in turn contributes to decreased TOA radiation biases in the cold months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly but with superimposed variability on multiple time scales that introduces large uncertainties in projections of future sea ice loss. To better understand what drives at least part of this variability, we show how a simple linear model can link dominant modes of climate variability to low-frequency regional Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies. Focusing on September, we find skillful projections from global climate models (GCMs) from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) at lead times of 4–20 years, with up to 60% of observed low-frequency variability explained at a 5-yr lead time. The dominant driver of low-frequency SIC variability is the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) which is positively correlated with SIC anomalies in all regions up to a lead time of 15 years but with large uncertainty between GCMs and internal variability realization. The Niño-3.4 index and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation have better agreement between GCMs of being positively and negatively related, respectively, with low-frequency SIC anomalies for at least 10-yr lead times. The large variations between GCMs and between members within large ensembles indicate the diverse simulation of teleconnections between the tropics and Arctic sea ice and the dependence on the initial climate state. Further, the influence of the Niño-3.4 index was found to be sensitive to the background climate. Our results suggest that, based on the 2022 phases of dominant climate variability modes, enhanced loss of sea ice area across the Arctic is likely during the next decade. Significance Statement: The purpose of this study is to better understand the drivers of low-frequency variability of Arctic sea ice. Teasing out the complicated relationships within the climate system takes a large number of examples. Here, we use 42 of the latest generation of global climate models to construct a simple linear model based on dominant named climate features to predict regional low-frequency sea ice anomalies at a lead time of 2–20 years. In 2022, these modes of variability happen to be in the phases most conducive to low Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies. Given the context of the longer-term trend of sea ice loss due to global warming, our results suggest accelerated Arctic sea ice loss in the next decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bortolanite, a rare mineral of the rinkite group, seidozerite supergroup occurs in two different associations in the Lovozero massif in the Kola Peninsula, Russia: (1) together with ferri-katophorite and phlogopite, it forms porous or mesh aggregates (symplectitic accretions) with euhedral contours in the contact zone of a volcano–sedimentary xenolith and eudialyte lujavrite at Kuamdespakhk Mt and (2) in intergrowths with titanite and fluorcaphite in the poikilitic feldspathoid syenites at Sengischorr Mt. In both cases, bortolanite was found in association with rosenbuschite that is close to it in chemical composition, but unlike bortolanite, it contains no REE s. The mineral is triclinic, space group P $\bar{1}$ , a = 9.5807(5), b = 5.6943(4), c = 7.2813(4) Å, α = 89.891(5)°, β = 100.959(4)°, γ = 101.241(5)°, V = 382.25(4) Å3 and Z = 1. The Lovozero bortolanite differs from the Brazilian holotype sample from de Caldas alkaline massif, Minas Gerais, due to the presence of (OH)-groups in its composition, which is indicated by Raman data. A combination of single-crystal X-ray diffraction data and electron microprobe data provides the following crystal-chemical formula: (Ca1.97Ce0.01Nd0.01Th0.01)Σ2(Ca1.39Zr0.61)Σ2(Na0.72Ca0.28)Σ1(Na1.36Ca0.56Mn0.03Zn0.01)Σ1.96(Ti0.78Zr0.08Nb0.05Mg0.05Fe0.04)Σ1Si4O14((OH)0.92O0.87F0.21)Σ2F2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrography and stratification of the subpolar North Atlantic is highly variable, with convection activating and deactivating across parts of the Labrador and Irminger seas. Likely consequential for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), this variability is examined in an eddy-rich ocean model hindcast spanning 1958–2021 and in 1950–2050 simulations with four climate models, spanning differences in ocean resolution (eddy-rich or eddy-permitting), code and implementation. Stratification of the Labrador and Irminger seas is quantified with the Potential Energy Anomaly (PEA) in the upper 1000 m of the water column. Monthly PEA anomalies are evaluated alongside corresponding anomalies of sea surface temperature, salinity, and density. For 30-year windows, moving correlations between PEA and surface properties are obtained over the 100-year simulations to characterize the evolving relationships. As climate change progresses, stratification in three of the four models is increasingly associated with variable surface salinity, in both regions. Lagrangian analyses of surface flow pathways in the decades preceding 1990 and 2040 are undertaken for one of the models in which surface salinity grows in influence. The subpolar presence of low-salinity Arctic waters and high-salinity subtropical Atlantic waters are found to increase and decrease respectively by 2040. Furthermore, in three of the four models, surface density compensation associated with correlation of surface temperature and salinity anomalies is progressively replaced by combined surface warming and freshening, lowering surface density, and strengthening stratification. The extent of these model-dependent changes and processes are of consequence for the projected fate of the AMOC by the mid twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of leads in Arctic sea ice on clouds is a potentially important climate feedback. We use observations of clouds and leads from the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) to study the effects of leads on clouds. Both leads and clouds are strongly forced by synoptic weather conditions, with more clouds over both leads and sea ice at lower sea level pressure. Contrary to previous studies, we find that the overall lead effect on low-level cloud cover is −0.02, a weak cloud dissipating effect in cold months, after the synoptic forcing influence is removed. This is due to compensating contributions from the cloud dissipating effect by newly frozen leads under high pressure systems and the cloud enhancing effect by newly open leads under low pressure system. The lack of proper representation of lead effect on clouds in current climate models and reanalyses may impact their performance in winter months, such as in sea ice growth and Arctic cyclone development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities located in the Arctic often have extreme geographic and environmental contexts and unique sociopolitical and economic trajectories that, when combined with amplified effects of climate change in the region, impact future sustainable development. Well-recognized and standardized sustainable development indicator (SDI) frameworks such as ISO 37120 or UN-Habitat City Prosperity Index are often used to compare data across cities globally using comprehensive sets of indicators. While such indexes help characterize progress toward development and guide short- and long-term decision-making, they often lack relevance to specific contexts or characterize future visions of urban growth. To evaluate the extent of these deficiencies and to provide a comparative analysis of approaches to sustainable urban growth in the Arctic, this paper analyzes city planning documents for five northern cities - Anchorage (USA), Utqiagvik (USA), Reyjavik (ISL), Iqaluit, (CAN), Whitehorse, (CAN) - for goals, targets, and indicators and compare these to thematic areas and indicators defined by ISO 37120:2018 Sustainable Cities and Communities. The results confirm that although international SDI frameworks may be useful for comparative analysis of cities across diverse regions, they exclude important local factors that influence goal-oriented urban sustainability planning strategies employed in the Arctic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic region's unfavorable living conditions adversely affect the spread of infectious diseases, including COVID-19, This, in turn, can also lead to increased morbidity and mortality rates in the area due to a number of factors such as climate, environment, and high prevalence rate of pre-existing health issues like diabetes, obesity, and respiratory infections. These circumstances adversely affect maintaining the level of working capability. The aim of this paper is to investigate the ratio of immunocompetent cells involved in the adaptive post-COVID-19 immune response. The research includes an immunological assessment of 29 women aged 20-40 years residing in Arkhangelsk, Russia, six months after recovering from COVID-19. The count of leukocytes in the peripheral blood and their differ ential were evaluated using standard methods to assess the immunological status. To delve deeper into the immunological landscape, phenotypes of lymphocytes (CD5+, CD8+, CD10+, and CD95+) were evaluated using an indirect immunoperoxidase reaction with monoclonal antibodies on dried drop lymphocyte preparations. After incubating blood with latex molecules, the activity and quantity of phagocytes were assessed using a light microscope. The neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio was found to be inverted in the female subjects under investigation. The high concentration of cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CD8+) and lymphocytes with apoptotic receptors (CD95+) suggests a potential correlation with a concurrent reduction in the expression of the total T-cell marker (CD5+) across all cases. This association was further linked to a decrease in lymphoproliferative activity and a relative decline in phagocytic activity. These findings led us to posit that the total recovery time after COVID-19 might extend beyond six months, indicative of a prolonged impact on the body's protective capacity. Our observations prompt the hypothesis that cellular immunity plays a crucial role in determining the severity of COVID-19 infection. Specifically, individuals with initially robust phagocytic activity may be predisposed to experiencing a milder form of the infection. However, this assumption warrants further investigation and clarification in individuals with moderate and severe disease progression [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global warming, the accelerated degradation of circum-Arctic permafrost is releasing a significant amount of carbon. InSAR can indirectly reflect the degradation of permafrost by monitoring its deformation. This study selected three typical permafrost regions in North America: Alaskan North Slope, Northern Great Bear Lake, and Southern Angikuni Lake. These regions encompass a range of permafrost landscapes, from tundra to needleleaf forests and lichen-moss, and we used Sentinel-1 SAR data from 2018 to 2021 to determine their deformation. In the InSAR process, due to the prolonged snow cover in the circum-Arctic permafrost, we used only SAR data collected during the summer and applied a two-stage interferogram selection strategy to mitigate the resulting temporal decorrelation. The Alaskan North Slope showed pronounced subsidence along the coastal alluvial plains and uplift in areas with drained thermokarst lake basins. Northern Great Bear Lake, which was impacted by wildfires, exhibited accelerated subsidence rates, revealing the profound and lasting impact of wildfires on permafrost degradation. Southern Angikuni Lake's lichen and moss terrains displayed mild subsidence. Our InSAR results indicate that more than one-third of the permafrost in the North American study area is degrading and that permafrost in diverse landscapes has different deformation patterns. When monitoring the degradation of large-scale permafrost, it is crucial to consider the unique characteristics of each landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Food insecurity is a social determinant of health linked with elevated HIV exposure. Safer sex efficacy (SSE), the ability to navigate sexual decision-making and condom use, is an important marker of sexual wellbeing. Pathways from food insecurity to SSE are understudied, particularly among adolescents in Arctic regions who are at the nexus of food insecurity and sexual health disparities. We examined pathways from food insecurity to SSE among adolescents in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada. Methods: We implemented cross-sectional surveys with adolescents aged 13–18 recruited through venue-based sampling in 17 NWT communities. We conducted multivariable logistic regression to assess socio-demographic factors associated with food insecurity. We then conducted structural equation modeling (SEM) using maximum likelihood estimation to assess direct effects of food insecurity on SSE and indirect effects via resilience, depression, and relationship power inequity. We assessed both condom use SSE (e.g., confidence in using condoms) and situational SSE (e.g., SSE under partner pressure). Results: Most participants (n = 410) identified as Indigenous (79%) and 45% reported experiencing food insecurity. In SEM, we did not find a significant direct effect from food insecurity to SSE; however, we found indirect effects from food insecurity to condom use SSE through resilience and depression and from food insecurity to situational SSE through resilience. Conclusions: Findings call for structural interventions to address food insecurity, alongside resilience-focused strategies that address the intersection of sexual and mental health. Sexual health strategies focused on individual behavior change are insufficient to address larger contexts of poverty among Northern youth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensity evolution of Arctic cyclones (ACs) is examined via cyclone parameter space and composite analyses based on approximately 18 000 AC tracks during 1979–2021. Cyclone parameter spaces are defined by various parameters representing the cyclone structure and physical processes relevant to cyclone development. It is shown that intensifying ACs are associated with diabatic heating and characterized by a cold core in both the lower and upper troposphere, as well as a thermally asymmetric and vertically tilted structure. In contrast, the decay phase is associated with diabatic cooling and characterized by a vertically aligned cyclone with reduced horizontal asymmetry. The cyclone parameter space analysis also indicates a warm core in the lower troposphere for a subset of ACs, which may reflect a frontal occlusion. The transition from AC intensification to decay, on average, is marked by a sharp decrease in both upward motion and diabatic heating, along with the vertical alignment of the cyclone structure. Following this transition, an upright cyclone may persist for a long time due to the weak background vertical wind shear, diabatic cooling, and weak Rossby wave energy dispersion. The evolution of ACs can thus be regarded as a two-stage process: a baroclinic development stage aided by diabatic heating, during which the AC evolution may conform with the Norwegian model for midlatitude cyclones, and a slow decay stage of an equivalent barotropic cyclone, which may leave a remnant tropopause polar vortex after the erosion of the surface circulation. Significance Statement: Arctic cyclones are the primary weather system in the Arctic and are also an important component in the Arctic climate system owing to their role in modulating Arctic sea ice variability and poleward moisture and energy transport. We examined the cyclone structural characteristics and physical processes associated with the Arctic cyclone intensity evolution and proposed a two-stage conceptual model. A better understanding of the Arctic cyclone intensity change mechanisms will help us better anticipate the changes in Arctic cyclone activity in a warmer climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying lakes in background areas of high-latitude regions is an important component of hydrological and ecological research. The article presents new data on the chemical composition of water and recent sediments of six small lakes located in the Natural Park “Rybachy and Sredny Peninsulas” (the Russian Arctic). The main hydrochemistry parameters, including pH, conductivity, alkalinity, the content of main ions (Ca+, Mg+, Na+, K+, HCO3−, SO4−, Cl−), and other elements were measured in the water of selected lakes. Furthermore, concentrations of heavy metals (Pb, Sb, Cd, Ni, Cu, and others) were estimated in the upper layers of recent sediments of the lakes. The integral pollution loan index (PLI), designed for geochemical studies of sediments, was calculated to determine the level of chemical pollution of the lakes. The results showed that, in general, the studied parameters did not exceed the background level. There was no serious impact of the Kola Mining and Metallurgical Company, which is situated ~ 80 km to the west from the lakes. It was revealed that the studied lakes were less contaminated with heavy metals in comparison with the previously researched lakes of urban territories of the Russian Arctic zone. However, the analysis of distribution of concentrations of Ni (up to 127 mg/kg), Cu (up to 370 mg/kg), Pb (up to 90 mg/kg) revealed the influence of long-range atmospheric pollution on lakes of the Natural Park “Rybachy and Sredny Peninsulas”. The fractional analysis of the metals in the sediments showed that the elements were mainly associated with stable compounds of the sediments and, thus, there was an only potential environmental risk for the biota of the studied lakes. Elevated levels of Pb, Cd, and Zn have been found in the water and sediments of Lake Pitevoe, which is likely caused by natural processes. Samples of the sediments also revealed particles of the mineral sphalerite containing traces of Pb and Cd. The calculation of the integral pollution load index (PLI) showed that, from the point of view of sediment geochemistry, the values of the lakes of the Natural Park “Rybachy and Sredny Peninsulas” corresponded to the moderate level of pollution or the absence of any pollution. The exception is lakes where natural geochemical anomalies have been identified. Sediments of lakes Pitevoe and №4 are characterized as polluted (PLI value is more 3). It is should develop recommendations for monitoring the water bodies in the Natural Park «Rybachy and Sredny Peninsulas» and establish measures to ensure safety and counter potential threats to the well-being of people visiting the park.Highlights: The background water level of the lakes of the Natural Park “Rybachy and Sredny Peninsulas” has been confirmed. Sediments of lakes reflect the influence of a metallurgical plant 80 km from the study area. Natural contamination of sediments with U, Zn, Pb, and Cd was established due to the specific geological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamic changes of sea ice exhibit spatial clustering, and this clustering has characteristics extending from its origin, through its development, and to its dissipation. Current research on sea ice change primarily focuses on spatiotemporal variation trends and remote correlation analysis, and lacks an analysis of spatiotemporal evolution characteristics. This study utilized monthly sea ice concentration (SIC) data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) for the period from 1979 to 2022, utilizing classical spatiotemporal clustering algorithms to analyze the clustering patterns and evolutionary characteristics of SIC anomalies in key Arctic regions. The results revealed that the central-western region of the Barents Sea was a critical area where SIC anomaly evolutionary behaviors were concentrated and persisted for longer durations. The relationship between the intensity and duration of SIC anomaly events was nonlinear. A positive correlation was observed for shorter durations, while a negative correlation was noted for longer durations. Anomalies predominantly occurred in December, with complex evolution happening in April and May of the following year, and concluded in July. Evolutionary state transitions mainly occurred in the Barents Sea. These transitions included shifts from the origin state in the northwestern margin to the dissipation state in the central-north Barents Sea, from the origin state in the central-north to the dissipation state in the central-south, and from the origin state in the northeastern to the dissipation state in the central-south Barents Sea and southeastern Kara Sea. Various evolutionary states were observed in the same area on the southwest edge of the Barents Sea. These findings provide insights into the evolutionary mechanism of sea ice anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sun's activity role in climate change has become a topic of debate. According to data from the IPCC, the global average temperature has shown an increasing trend since 1850, with an average increase of 0.06 °C/decade. Our analysis of summer temperature records from five weather stations in northern Fennoscandia (65°–70.4° N) revealed an increasing trend, with a range of 0.09 °C/decade to 0.15 °C/decade. However, due to the short duration of instrumental records, it is not possible to accurately assess and predict climate changes on centennial and millennial timescales. In this study, we used the Finnish super-long (~7600 years) tree-ring chronology to create a climate prediction for the 21st century. We applied a method that combines a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network with the continuous wavelet transform and wavelet filtering in order to make climate change predictions. This approach revealed a significant decrease in tree-ring growth over the near term (2063–2073). The predicted decrease in tree-ring growth (and regional temperature) is thought to be a result of a new grand solar minimum, which may lead to Little Ice Age-like climatic conditions. This result is significant for understanding current climate processes and assessing potential environmental and socio-economic risks on a global and regional level, including in the area of the Arctic shipping routes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ASI algorithm uses the same sea ice and seawater tie-points when inverting polar sea ice concentration (SIC), but this approach does not fully consider the differences between different polar sea regions and the impact of different sea ice characteristics on SIC results. To make up for this deficiency, the SIC inversion algorithm based on different types of Arctic sea ice is proposed. The proposed algorithm selects pure ice and pure water sample points in different sea regions to derive SIC inversion formulas, and subsequently obtains SIC retrieval results for the entire Arctic. Compare the results of this study with those of traditional ASI algorithm, and perform local validation based on the sea ice distribution obtained from Landsat-8 data. The results show that compared with the traditional ASI algorithm, the proposed algorithm has improved the accuracy of SIC inversion in different sea ice regions by 2%-6%, with an average improvement of 3.3%. Overall, our research has improved the ASI algorithm, which is of great significance for obtaining higher precision polar SIC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar ships are subjected to the ice loading. Low temperature impact toughness of ship steels is important for the ice-breaking efficiency and navigation safety of polar ships. In this paper, the impact absorption energy of EH36 steel under different temperatures, impact velocities and plate thickness is analyzed by experimental test, Taguchi and ANOVA method. The impact absorption energy was divided into crack formation and crack propagation absorption energy. The experimental results show that the impact absorption energy of EH36 steel is positively correlated with plate thickness and temperature, and negatively with impact velocity when it was in the toughness state. The order of significance ranking from high to low is thickness, temperature, and impact velocity. The ratio of the crack propagation absorption energy increases with the temperatures and reflects the impact toughness of EH36 steel. Furthermore, the best factor combination of impact toughness of EH36 steel was obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive species represent a threat to many ecosystems but are nearly absent from arctic and subarctic Canada. The treeline town of Churchill, Manitoba, has an unusually high number of invasive species due to the presence of a grain port and railway, but few of these species have spread to the surrounding tundra; for instance, common dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) currently is restricted primarily to town, in contrast with its native congener, Taraxacum lacerum. To investigate whether the distribution of T. officinale is affected by the tendency of buildings to create warm, sheltered microenvironments, we surveyed the abundance of both dandelion species relative to existing structures in town. We established transects extending up to 5 m from each side of 23 buildings, and recorded the number of plants in 50 cm × 50 cm quadrats along each transect. We found that T. officinale performed better on the south sides of buildings, that flowering decreased away from buildings, and that these effects were stronger for T. officinale than the native T. lacerum. Soil temperatures were warmer on the south rather than on the north-facing sides, providing a possible explanation. Our results show that the distribution of T. officinale currently is more influenced by human-created microclimate compared to the abundance of its native relative. However, T. officinale may spread beyond these refuges as the climate continues to warm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In January 2022, the strongest Arctic cyclone on record resulted in a record weekly loss in sea ice cover in the Barents‐Kara‐Laptev seas. While ECMWF operational forecasts skillfully predicted the cyclone, the loss in sea ice was poorly predicted. We explore the ocean's response to the cyclone using observations from an Argo float that was profiling in the region, and investigate model biases in simulating the observed sea ice loss in a fully coupled GCM. The observations showed changes over the whole ocean column in the Barents Sea after the passage of the storm, cooling and mixing with enough implied heat release to melt roughly 1 m of sea ice. We replicate the observed cyclone in the GCM by nudging the model's winds to observations above the boundary layer. In these simulations, the associated loss of sea ice is only about 10%–15% of the observed loss, and the ocean exhibits very small changes in response to the cyclone. With the use of a simple 1‐D ice‐ocean model, we find that the overly strong ocean stratification in the GCM may be a significant source of model bias in its simulated response to the cyclone. However, even initialized with observed stratification profiles, the 1‐D model also underestimated mixing and sea ice melt relative to the observations. Plain Language Summary: Extreme storms in the Arctic can significantly impact the ocean and sea ice state. In January 2022, the strongest Arctic storm on record resulted in a record loss of sea ice. The storm was well predicted by the ECMWF operational forecasts, yet the loss of sea ice was not. Here we further study the impact that the storm had on the ocean, and how well a fully coupled global climate model simulates the observed response in sea ice and ocean to the storm. We do this by nudging the winds in the model to observations. In observations, the ocean responded to the storm by cooling and mixing to full depth in the Barents Sea, releasing enough heat to melt a significant amount of sea ice. In contrast, the model's simulated sea ice and ocean response to the storm is much smaller than estimated in observations. The model's ocean stratification prior to the storm is significantly stronger than observed and is likely a source of bias, which we confirm with the use of a simple one dimensional model. Key Points: An Argo float showed cooling and mixing in the Barents Sea during a record Arctic cyclone, accounting for the associated record sea ice lossA coupled GCM with winds nudged to observations shows much smaller changes in sea ice and ocean structure with the passage of the cycloneA 1‐D ocean model shows that too‐strong stratification in the GCM is a main source of bias in its sea ice and ocean response to the cyclone [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bering Strait is the only ocean gateway connecting the Pacific and Arctic oceans. The ∼1 Sv northward flow of Pacific water through the strait to the Arctic Ocean has been increasing by ∼0.01 Sv/yr since 1990. Monthly dynamic ocean topography (DOT), wind, and sea‐ice data at Bering Strait are analyzed in context with the long‐term record of flow through the strait to investigate local drivers. Ocean transport is found to be proportional to the across‐strait slope in DOT, suggesting some component of the flow is in geostrophic balance. Along‐strait ocean surface stresses, which modulate the across‐strait DOT slope via Ekman transport, are analyzed in the presence of a seasonally varying ice cover. It is shown that northward interior ocean flow under sea ice in winter results in southward surface stresses, and westward Ekman transport that slows the geostrophic component of the northward ocean flow. As the number of open water days local to Bering Strait increase each year, we find no trend in the annual mean surface stress, that is, the loss of sea ice is not leading to increased northward wind stress input that would enhance northward ocean flow. This analysis is consistent with the theory that changes in both the atmosphere and ocean non‐local to Bering Strait are likely driving the increased transport from the Pacific into the Arctic via Bering Strait. Plain Language Summary: Bering Strait is a narrow waterway, 50 m deep and 85 km wide, between Alaska and Russia that allows relatively warmer and fresher Pacific water to flow into the Arctic Ocean. The volume of water entering the Arctic through Bering Strait has increased approximately 30% since 1990. It is unclear what processes are responsible for this observed increase. We determine that part of Bering Strait throughflow is driven by the difference in pressure across the strait, or an across‐strait slope in sea surface, which can be caused by a stress applied parallel to the strait. When winds blow to the north, water piles up on the Alaskan side creating a pressure difference that is proportional to the flow. When sea ice is absent, winds act directly on the ocean. When sea ice is present, sea ice applies a stress onto the ocean. We find that as the Arctic loses sea ice, there are no changes in stress due to fewer days of sea ice cover. This suggests that local winds and sea ice are not driving the increase in transport, and that large‐scale changes in the Pacific and Arctic Oceans are driving the increase in transport through Bering Strait. Key Points: Monthly dynamic ocean topography (DOT) supports that some component of flow through Bering Strait is in geostrophic balanceLocal surface stress in Bering Strait increases to the south as the interior flow increases to the north when sea ice is presentThe increasing number of open water days each year is not contributing to enhanced northward transport via increased wind stress input [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting the development of regions is one of the most challenging tasks of modern economics. The quality of any forecast is determined by the methodology used. Accordingly, criticism of existing forecasts is largely connected to their methodological approaches. In this paper, a multi-level approach to forecasting the development of the region is proposed, starting with the definition of the key performance indicators and ending with the assessment of various scenarios. The study was conducted on the example of the Russian Arctic, divided into three technological zones, with three scenarios of the development for each (negative, base, positive). The application of the proposed methodology allowed for modeling the development of the region until 2035. The results show that the Russian Arctic has a huge difference in the achievability of different goals, e.g., 98% of the electricity supply targets are achievable in a baseline scenario, while only 52% are achievable in a set of "navigation" targets. The proposed methodology can be useful for diving into the details of regional forecasts, such as the impact of key companies in a region or the influence of international politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Recent increases in extreme events, especially those near and beyond previous records, are a new index for Arctic and global climate change. They vary by type, location, and season. These record-shattering events often have no known historical analogues and suggest that other climate surprises are in store. Twenty-six unprecedented events from 2022, 2023, and early 2024 include record summer temperatures/heatwaves, storms, major Canadian wildfires, early continental snow melt, Greenland melt, sea temperatures of 5–7 °C above normal, drought in Iceland, and low northern Alaskan salmon runs. Collectively, such diverse extremes form a consilience, the principle that evidence from independent, unrelated sources converge as a strong indicator of ongoing Arctic change. These new behaviors represent emergent phenomenon. Emergence occurs when multiple processes interact to produce new properties, such as the interaction of Arctic amplification with the normal range of major weather events. Examples are typhon Merbok that resulted in extensive coastal erosion in the Bering Sea, Greenland melt, and record temperatures and melt in Svalbard. The Arctic can now be considered to be in a different state to before fifteen years ago. Communities must adapt for such intermittent events to avoid worst-case scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface latent and sensible heat fluxes are crucial components of the air-sea energy exchanges that influence the upper-ocean heat content and the marine atmospheric boundary layer. Due to the limited availability of in situ observations, assessing their impact on Arctic weather and climate has mainly been done using data assimilation products and numerical model simulations. The accuracy of the surface fluxes in numerical models are, however, largely unvalidated. Recent deployments of saildrones, remotely piloted uncrewed surface vehicles, can help bridge this data gap of in situ observations. This study represents an initial effort to validate sea surface latent and sensible heat fluxes over the Pacific sub-Arctic open ocean from three commonly used global reanalysis products (NASA MERRA2, ECMWF ERA5, NOAA CFSR2) against observations by saildrones. In general, fluxes from these reanalysis products and saildrone observations agree well, except for CFSR2 sensible heat fluxes, which exhibit systematic negative biases. Sporadic, very large (greater than two observed standard deviations) discrepancies between fluxes from the reanalysis products and observations do occur. These substantial discrepancies in the reanalysis products primarily result from errors in temperature for sensible heat fluxes and errors in both humidity and wind speed for latent heat fluxes. The results from this study suggest that the sea surface latent and sensible heat fluxes from MERRA2 and ERA5 are reliable in representing the mean features of air-sea exchanges in the sub-Arctic region. Nonetheless, their reliability is limited when used for studies of high-frequency variability, such as synoptic weather events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow is the most reflective natural surface on Earth. Since fresh snow on bare sea ice increases the surface albedo, the impact of summer snow accumulation can have a negative radiative forcing effect, which would inhibit sea ice surface melt and potentially slow sea‐ice loss. However, it is not well known how often, where, and when summer snowfall events occur on Arctic sea ice. In this study, we used in situ and model snow depth data paired with surface albedo and atmospheric conditions from satellite retrievals to characterize summer snow accumulation on Arctic sea ice from 2003 to 2017. We found that, across the Arctic, ∼2 snow accumulation events occurred on initially snow‐free conditions each year. The average snow depth and albedo increases were ∼2 cm and 0.08, respectively. 16.5% of the snow accumulation events were optically thick (>3 cm deep) and lasted 2.9 days longer than the average snow accumulation event (3.4 days). Based on a simple, multiple scattering radiative transfer model, we estimated a −0.086 ± 0.020 W m−2 change in the annual average top‐of‐the‐atmosphere radiative forcing for summer snowfall events in 2003–2017. The following work provides new information on the frequency, distribution, and duration of observed snow accumulation events over Arctic sea ice in summer. Such results may be particularly useful in understanding the impacts of ephemeral summer weather on surface albedo and their propagating effects on the radiative forcing over Arctic sea ice, as well as assessing climate model simulations of summer atmosphere‐ice processes. Plain Language Summary: As sea ice declines in the Arctic, it is necessary to understand the role that sea ice plays in the Arctic climate. During summer, ice is particularly important because it acts as a barrier between the atmosphere and ocean, and shields the ocean from sunlight. Sea ice is a surface on which snowfall can accumulate. Since snow is the most reflective natural surface on earth, its presence during the sunny season can reflect significant amounts of sunlight away from the earth's surface and reduce warming. In this work, we studied the impact of summer snowfall on sea ice by combining data from buoys, satellites, and models to determine how much sunlight is reflected by short‐lived summer snow accumulation on Arctic sea ice. We learned that the average snow event raises the reflectivity of the surface by 0.08 with ∼2 cm of snow depth change. Events with more than 3 cm of accumulation lasted ∼3 days longer than average (∼3 days). Overall, summer snow accumulation reduces the amount of energy absorbed by the Arctic region by 0.086 W m−2 each year. These results help to improve our understanding of the Arctic climate and may also be useful for evaluating climate models. Key Points: Ephemeral summer snowfall increased albedo by 0.08 and decreased TOA radiative forcing by 0.086 ± 0.020 W m−2 across the Arctic Ocean in 2003–2017The average snow accumulation event led to a ∼2 cm increase in snow depth and lasted 3.4 daysOptically thick (>3 cm) snow accumulation events occurred in 16.5% of all events and lasted 6.3 days [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During marine cold‐air outbreaks (MCAOs), when cold polar air moves over warmer ocean, a well‐recognized cloud pattern develops, with open or closed mesoscale cellular convection (MCC) at larger fetch over open water. The Cold‐Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment provided a comprehensive set of ground‐based in situ and remote sensing observations of MCAOs at a coastal location in northern Norway. MCAO periods that unambiguously exhibit open or closed MCC are determined. Individual cells observed with a profiling Ka‐band radar are identified using a watershed segmentation method. Using self‐organizing maps (SOMs), these cells are then objectively classified based on the variability in their vertical structure. The SOM nodes contain some information about the location of the cell transect relative to the center of the MCC. This adds classification noise, requiring numerous cell transects to isolate cell dynamical information. The SOM‐based classification shows that comparatively intense convection occurs only in open MCC. This convection undergoes an apparent lifecycle. Developing cells are associated with stronger updrafts, large spectrum width, larger amounts of liquid water, lower surface precipitation rates, and lower cloud tops than mature and weakening cells. The weakening of these cells is associated with the development of precipitation‐induced cold pools. The SOM classification also reveals less intense convection, with a similar lifecycle. More stratiform vertical cloud structures with weak vertical motions are common during closed MCC periods and are separated into precipitating and non‐precipitating stratiform cores. Convection is observed only occasionally in the closed MCC environment. Plain Language Summary: During marine cold‐air outbreaks a characteristic cloud field develops over the open ocean. At large fetch, this cloud field is characterized by open and closed mesoscale cellular convection (MCC). The Cold‐Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment in northern Norway provided comprehensive observations of mixed‐phase MCC using ground‐based and remote sensing instruments. Distinct open or closed MCC periods are identified using a vertically pointing cloud radar. Within these periods individual cells are identified. Using a machine learning algorithm, these cells are objectively classified based on their vertical structure as observed by the radar. The classification reveals that intense convection primarily occurs in open MCC, displaying a lifecycle with developing cells characterized by strong updrafts, substantial liquid water, lower precipitation rates, and lower cloud tops compared to mature and weakening cells. Weakening cells are associated with precipitation‐induced cold pools. Less intense convection with a similar lifecycle is observed during open and closed MCC. Most frequently during closed MCC, stratiform cells with weak vertical motions are observed, some of them without precipitation reaching the surface. The vertical cloud structure of the precipitating stratiform cells is very similar to weakening convective cells. Key Points: Cloud cells in marine cold‐air outbreaks are objectively identified and classified using a profiling mm‐wave radarThe classification reveals that open‐cellular clouds undergo a convective lifecycle with distinct characteristics at each lifecycle stageClosed‐cellular clouds contain occasional convection but generally have more stratiform characteristics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]