51. A black swan and canard cascades in an SIR infectious disease model
- Author
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Elena Shchepakina, Vladimir Sobolev, and Andrei Korobeinikov
- Subjects
Computer science ,Population Dynamics ,infectious disease model ,02 engineering and technology ,Black swan theory ,Communicable Diseases ,0502 economics and business ,QA1-939 ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,invariant manifold ,Humans ,Quantitative Biology::Populations and Evolution ,Computer Simulation ,Statistical physics ,Epidemics ,Model order reduction ,Population Density ,Applied Mathematics ,Population size ,05 social sciences ,canard cascades ,General Medicine ,stability ,Models, Theoretical ,Computational Mathematics ,model order reduction ,Infectious disease (medical specialty) ,Modeling and Simulation ,black swan ,020201 artificial intelligence & image processing ,canards ,Disease Susceptibility ,Public Health ,singular perturbations ,General Agricultural and Biological Sciences ,TP248.13-248.65 ,Mathematics ,050203 business & management ,Algorithms ,Biotechnology - Abstract
Models of the spread of infectious diseases commonly have to deal with the problem of multiple timescales which naturally occur in the epidemic models. In the most cases, this problem is implicitly avoided with the use of the so-called constant population size assumption. However, applicability of this assumption can require a justification (which is typically omitted). In this paper we consider some multiscale phenomena that arise in a reasonably simple Susceptible- Infected-Removed (SIR) model with variable population size. In particular, we discuss examples of the canard cascades and a black swan that arise in this model. © 2020 the Author(s).
- Published
- 2020